2016 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Cincinnati / Kansas City / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
However one would characterize the precise opposite of a stars-and-scrub approach to roster construction, this is what the Yankees appear to have employed in collecting their present group of talent. Eight of the club’s nine likely starters are projected to record a WAR figure somewhere between 1.5 and 3.1, from Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira on the low end (largely due to a less-than-full complement of plate appearances) to Brian McCann on the high. Wildly average, is perhaps the best description.

It will be interesting to see how Brian Cashman, Joe Girardi, et al. address what does appear to be the team’s one positional weakness — namely, right field. Dan Szymborski’s computer is pessimistic about the 39-year-old Carlos Beltran, projecting him not only for a roughly league-average batting line but also negative defensive-runs mark. That said, the club does have some internal options immediately available: the recently acquired Aaron Hicks and also Rob Refsnyder (who has considerable experience in right field) also receive forecasts in the league-average range.

Pitchers
After early concerns regarding his velocity, right-hander Masahiro Tanaka proceeded to record the top WAR figure among Yankees starters (as calculated by runs allowed) this past year — and actually produced a higher average fastball velocity than in his debut 2014 season. He’s forecast to replicate the former of those achievements in 2016. Expected to nearly approximate Tanaka’s value (in nearly the same quantity of innings) is young right-hander Luis Severino.

With regard to the bullpen, one finds considerable strength at its back end in Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, the former of whom is projected to record a full win more than the latter, but also in 30 more innings. The pair are forecast to record nearly four wins together. By way of comparison, consider that, among the eight clubs examined so far in this series, the best other bullpen figure has belonged to Pittsburgh — at about four wins total.

Bench/Prospects
In addition to those eight starters whose projections sit within the average range, the club also features five other players who profile similarly. Beyond the aforementioned Hicks and Refsnyder, one also finds Gregory Bird (518 PA, 2.0 zWAR), Aaron Judge (540 PA, 1.5 zWAR), and Gary Sanchez (446 PA, 1.9 zWAR) listed among those who are regarded as capable major leaguers. That’s on the offensive side, at least. The club’s pitching depths appears to considerably more shallow.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Yankees, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Brian McCann	L	32	C	479	55	105	15	1	21	79	0	0
Chase Headley	B	32	3B	581	68	130	26	1	16	65	4	3
Didi Gregorius	L	26	SS	560	58	130	22	5	10	52	4	2
Starlin Castro	R	26	2B	639	64	165	28	3	15	75	8	5
Jacoby Ellsbury	L	32	CF	538	66	132	21	4	9	46	26	6
Brett Gardner	L	32	LF	547	74	123	24	6	12	54	17	5
Gregory Bird	L	23	1B	518	69	116	28	1	26	79	1	1
Gary Sanchez	R	23	C	446	56	99	20	0	20	67	4	2
Rob Refsnyder	R	25	2B	539	61	120	26	3	13	56	10	4
Aaron Hicks	B	26	CF	498	60	105	19	5	13	51	11	4
Mark Teixeira	B	36	1B	350	41	72	14	0	18	64	1	0
Aaron Judge	R	24	RF	540	69	111	23	2	30	82	5	2
Alex Rodriguez	R	40	DH	481	60	98	17	1	23	74	4	1
Ben Gamel	L	24	CF	564	60	127	26	7	10	59	10	4
Austin Romine	R	27	C	302	32	68	15	0	8	33	1	0
Stephen Drew	L	33	2B	395	37	77	17	3	12	44	1	1
Tony Renda	R	25	2B	560	59	129	27	2	4	42	17	5
Dustin Ackley	L	28	LF	448	57	103	21	3	13	54	5	3
Gregorio Petit	R	31	SS	378	39	84	17	1	6	35	1	2
Pete Kozma	R	28	SS	317	35	61	12	1	4	22	5	3
Eric Jagielo	L	24	3B	308	37	62	13	1	13	41	0	0
Slade Heathcott	L	25	CF	278	27	60	10	3	5	29	6	4
Miguel Andujar	R	21	3B	541	60	119	23	3	17	66	7	1
Garrett Jones	L	35	RF	322	35	71	15	2	14	42	1	0
Carlos Beltran	B	39	RF	450	47	103	25	1	15	56	1	0
Kyle Higashioka	R	26	C	188	18	40	9	1	5	22	0	0
Mason Williams	L	24	CF	438	43	92	18	3	4	33	12	7
Rico Noel	R	27	CF	347	37	66	8	2	0	19	30	10
Tyler Wade	L	21	SS	569	52	115	18	5	6	41	19	15
Taylor Dugas	L	26	LF	366	35	74	12	1	1	21	6	4
Dante Bichette Jr.	R	23	1B	501	47	104	21	2	9	49	0	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Brian McCann	479	8.4%	17.1%	.187	.255	.245	.317	.432	.322
Chase Headley	581	9.1%	22.7%	.147	.306	.251	.329	.398	.321
Didi Gregorius	560	6.6%	16.3%	.122	.293	.257	.317	.379	.304
Starlin Castro	639	4.4%	16.9%	.131	.311	.274	.310	.405	.311
Jacoby Ellsbury	538	6.9%	15.4%	.114	.305	.269	.324	.383	.321
Brett Gardner	547	9.1%	21.0%	.149	.311	.256	.330	.405	.326
Gregory Bird	518	9.1%	25.3%	.234	.291	.252	.324	.486	.347
Gary Sanchez	446	6.3%	24.7%	.194	.277	.240	.291	.434	.315
Rob Refsnyder	539	8.2%	19.5%	.147	.290	.248	.318	.395	.318
Aaron Hicks	498	9.8%	23.5%	.153	.291	.238	.313	.391	.313
Mark Teixeira	350	11.4%	20.6%	.226	.250	.238	.331	.464	.339
Aaron Judge	540	7.8%	35.0%	.238	.292	.226	.287	.464	.324
Alex Rodriguez	481	11.6%	24.7%	.212	.270	.237	.331	.449	.336
Ben Gamel	564	6.4%	23.2%	.134	.305	.243	.292	.377	.295
Austin Romine	302	5.0%	20.2%	.138	.279	.241	.282	.379	.286
Stephen Drew	395	9.1%	21.8%	.167	.252	.218	.290	.385	.292
Tony Renda	560	6.8%	12.3%	.084	.283	.252	.308	.336	.295
Dustin Ackley	448	7.4%	17.4%	.162	.282	.253	.310	.415	.316
Gregorio Petit	378	4.2%	19.3%	.104	.281	.237	.272	.341	.267
Pete Kozma	317	7.6%	19.9%	.091	.258	.213	.277	.304	.258
Eric Jagielo	308	6.8%	34.1%	.194	.301	.222	.289	.416	.304
Slade Heathcott	278	5.4%	30.2%	.119	.320	.231	.274	.350	.282
Miguel Andujar	541	4.4%	23.8%	.156	.276	.232	.268	.388	.287
Garrett Jones	322	7.1%	23.9%	.206	.275	.240	.295	.446	.317
Carlos Beltran	450	7.8%	17.6%	.177	.276	.252	.311	.429	.318
Kyle Higashioka	188	4.8%	23.9%	.146	.271	.225	.261	.371	.274
Mason Williams	438	6.6%	17.1%	.090	.273	.230	.283	.320	.273
Rico Noel	347	7.8%	29.1%	.039	.316	.214	.287	.253	.271
Tyler Wade	569	6.2%	25.7%	.088	.291	.219	.271	.307	.272
Taylor Dugas	366	9.0%	16.7%	.053	.282	.232	.318	.285	.279
Dante Bichette Jr.	501	5.8%	25.0%	.112	.284	.223	.271	.335	.268

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Brian McCann	479	4.9	107	0	3.1	Matt Nokes
Chase Headley	581	4.7	102	2	2.7	Pinky Higgins
Didi Gregorius	560	4.4	93	2	2.4	Ernest Riles
Starlin Castro	639	4.6	98	1	2.2	Jose Lopez
Jacoby Ellsbury	538	4.9	97	1	2.2	Bake McBride
Brett Gardner	547	5.0	104	4	2.0	Delino DeShields
Gregory Bird	518	5.7	122	0	2.0	Roberto Petagine
Gary Sanchez	446	4.5	99	-5	1.9	Todd Zeile
Rob Refsnyder	539	4.6	98	-1	1.9	Glenn Hubbard
Aaron Hicks	498	4.4	95	1	1.8	Brady Anderson
Mark Teixeira	350	5.5	119	3	1.5	Cliff Johnson
Aaron Judge	540	4.7	105	0	1.5	Jesse Barfield
Alex Rodriguez	481	5.3	115	0	1.5	Dwight Evans
Ben Gamel	564	4.0	85	-2	0.9	Terrence Long
Austin Romine	302	3.9	83	-2	0.8	Willie Morales
Stephen Drew	395	3.8	87	0	0.8	Dick McAuliffe
Tony Renda	560	3.9	80	-2	0.8	Mark DeRosa
Dustin Ackley	448	4.6	100	-2	0.7	Troy O’Leary
Gregorio Petit	378	3.2	70	3	0.5	Kevin Baez
Pete Kozma	317	2.9	62	5	0.4	Leo Durocher
Eric Jagielo	308	4.2	94	-5	0.4	Mark Reynolds
Slade Heathcott	278	3.3	73	3	0.4	Jonathan Jay
Miguel Andujar	541	3.8	80	-4	0.4	Ivanon Coffie
Garrett Jones	322	4.7	103	-4	0.3	Chris Richard
Carlos Beltran	450	4.9	104	-7	0.3	Chris Chambliss
Kyle Higashioka	188	3.4	74	-1	0.3	Carlos Corporan
Mason Williams	438	3.1	68	3	0.1	David Murphy
Rico Noel	347	2.8	53	3	-0.2	Scott Loucks
Tyler Wade	569	2.7	61	2	-0.2	Esteban Beltre
Taylor Dugas	366	3.1	71	1	-0.5	Jeff Baldwin
Dante Bichette Jr.	501	3.1	68	2	-1.3	Brock Peterson

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Masahiro Tanaka	R	27	25	25	157.7	147	30	22	146	72	67
Luis Severino	R	22	30	30	154.0	147	51	18	141	70	65
Dellin Betances	R	28	71	0	85.0	130	33	7	55	21	20
Michael Pineda	R	27	21	21	121.3	109	19	14	122	56	52
Nathan Eovaldi	R	26	25	25	146.3	127	44	15	152	74	69
Andrew Miller	L	31	56	0	52.0	85	17	5	34	14	13
Ivan Nova	R	29	19	18	109.3	83	35	13	114	58	54
Nick Goody	R	24	52	0	67.7	79	27	8	59	31	29
Esmil Rogers	R	30	37	14	114.0	88	39	14	121	64	60
Chasen Shreve	L	25	62	0	66.0	74	26	9	60	31	29
Jacob Lindgren	L	23	29	0	38.3	49	19	5	32	17	16
CC Sabathia	L	35	21	21	124.7	104	37	20	136	74	69
Chris Capuano	L	37	26	12	75.0	64	27	10	80	44	41
James Pazos	L	25	43	0	53.3	53	23	6	50	27	25
Diego Moreno	R	28	32	2	54.0	43	19	6	55	29	27
Caleb Cotham	R	28	44	0	52.3	52	16	8	52	27	25
Nick Rumbelow	R	24	52	0	65.7	69	21	10	63	34	32
Jose De Paula	L	28	12	10	50.0	29	18	7	57	31	29
Sergio Santos	R	32	30	0	27.7	31	13	4	26	15	14
Chris Martin	R	30	42	0	51.3	44	17	6	53	27	25
Wilking Rodriguez	R	26	14	0	15.7	15	6	2	15	9	8
Johnny Barbato	R	23	37	0	52.7	51	22	8	53	29	27
Jaron Long	R	24	28	22	143.3	92	31	23	166	90	84
Branden Pinder	R	27	43	0	54.3	49	20	9	55	31	29
Luis Cessa	R	24	23	23	126.3	89	38	20	145	81	76
Andrew Bailey	R	32	29	0	29.0	32	12	7	30	19	18
Miguel Sulbaran	L	22	19	18	88.0	54	38	13	101	59	55
Bryan Mitchell	R	25	29	20	108.3	83	58	15	118	71	66
Brady Lail	R	22	27	26	132.0	80	44	21	154	87	81
Eric Wooten	L	26	20	12	87.3	56	30	16	103	61	57
Kyle Davies	R	32	21	20	110.3	67	33	20	130	76	71
Kyle Haynes	R	25	36	10	87.0	62	50	12	96	59	55
Rookie Davis	R	23	25	24	120.0	90	42	22	138	82	77
Vicente Campos	R	23	20	17	68.0	44	19	16	86	51	48
Matt Tracy	L	27	25	15	92.7	58	45	15	107	66	62
Caleb Smith	L	24	25	25	112.7	82	62	21	127	82	77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Masahiro Tanaka	157.7	649	22.6%	4.6%	.278	3.82	3.70	94	90
Luis Severino	154.0	654	22.5%	7.8%	.285	3.80	3.85	94	93
Dellin Betances	85.0	343	37.9%	9.6%	.284	2.12	2.39	52	58
Michael Pineda	121.3	505	21.6%	3.8%	.299	3.86	3.33	95	81
Nathan Eovaldi	146.3	635	20.0%	6.9%	.307	4.24	3.63	105	88
Andrew Miller	52.0	207	41.1%	8.2%	.302	2.25	2.24	56	54
Ivan Nova	109.3	477	17.4%	7.3%	.300	4.45	4.31	110	104
Nick Goody	67.7	289	27.3%	9.3%	.298	3.86	3.68	95	89
Esmil Rogers	114.0	502	17.5%	7.8%	.301	4.74	4.34	117	105
Chasen Shreve	66.0	284	26.1%	9.2%	.295	3.95	3.82	97	92
Jacob Lindgren	38.3	166	29.5%	11.5%	.294	3.76	3.73	93	90
CC Sabathia	124.7	547	19.0%	6.8%	.304	4.98	4.46	123	108
Chris Capuano	75.0	332	19.3%	8.1%	.307	4.92	4.25	121	103
James Pazos	53.3	233	22.8%	9.9%	.296	4.22	3.99	104	96
Diego Moreno	54.0	236	18.2%	8.1%	.297	4.50	4.18	111	101
Caleb Cotham	52.3	225	23.1%	7.1%	.300	4.30	4.14	106	100
Nick Rumbelow	65.7	281	24.5%	7.5%	.296	4.39	3.99	108	96
Jose De Paula	50.0	225	12.9%	8.0%	.298	5.22	4.97	129	120
Sergio Santos	27.7	122	25.4%	10.6%	.297	4.55	4.04	112	98
Chris Martin	51.3	224	19.7%	7.6%	.303	4.38	3.96	108	96
Wilking Rodriguez	15.7	68	22.0%	8.8%	.295	4.60	4.00	113	97
Johnny Barbato	52.7	233	21.9%	9.4%	.302	4.61	4.51	114	109
Jaron Long	143.3	627	14.7%	4.9%	.302	5.27	4.70	130	114
Branden Pinder	54.3	238	20.6%	8.4%	.291	4.80	4.62	118	112
Luis Cessa	126.3	562	15.8%	6.8%	.306	5.41	4.80	133	116
Andrew Bailey	29.0	129	24.8%	9.3%	.299	5.59	5.38	138	130
Miguel Sulbaran	88.0	403	13.4%	9.4%	.300	5.62	5.26	139	127
Bryan Mitchell	108.3	501	16.6%	11.6%	.305	5.48	5.15	135	124
Brady Lail	132.0	594	13.5%	7.4%	.301	5.52	5.12	136	124
Eric Wooten	87.3	395	14.2%	7.6%	.302	5.87	5.41	145	131
Kyle Davies	110.3	494	13.6%	6.7%	.299	5.79	5.31	143	128
Kyle Haynes	87.0	407	15.2%	12.3%	.302	5.69	5.37	140	130
Rookie Davis	120.0	540	16.7%	7.8%	.306	5.77	5.19	142	126
Vicente Campos	68.0	309	14.2%	6.1%	.310	6.35	5.89	157	142
Matt Tracy	92.7	430	13.5%	10.5%	.300	6.02	5.54	149	134
Caleb Smith	112.7	527	15.6%	11.8%	.298	6.15	5.88	152	142

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Masahiro Tanaka	157.7	8.39	1.71	1.26	103	2.8	Oil Can Boyd
Luis Severino	154.0	8.59	2.98	1.05	104	2.7	Kris Benson
Dellin Betances	85.0	13.76	3.49	0.74	187	2.4	Rich Gossage
Michael Pineda	121.3	8.09	1.41	1.04	102	2.0	Charles Nagy
Nathan Eovaldi	146.3	7.81	2.71	0.92	93	1.6	Scott Erickson
Andrew Miller	52.0	14.71	2.94	0.87	176	1.3	Billy Wagner
Ivan Nova	109.3	6.83	2.88	1.07	89	0.9	Runelvys Hernandez
Nick Goody	67.7	10.50	3.59	1.06	102	0.4	P.J. Bevis
Esmil Rogers	114.0	6.95	3.08	1.11	83	0.3	Mike Heathcott
Chasen Shreve	66.0	10.09	3.55	1.23	100	0.3	Buzz Oliver
Jacob Lindgren	38.3	11.51	4.46	1.17	105	0.3	Buzz Oliver
CC Sabathia	124.7	7.51	2.67	1.44	79	0.2	Jim Deshaies
Chris Capuano	75.0	7.68	3.24	1.20	80	0.0	Bob Veale
James Pazos	53.3	8.95	3.88	1.01	94	0.0	Rob Murphy
Diego Moreno	54.0	7.17	3.17	1.00	88	0.0	Greg Bauer
Caleb Cotham	52.3	8.95	2.75	1.38	92	-0.1	Joel Peralta
Nick Rumbelow	65.7	9.45	2.88	1.37	90	-0.1	Mark Worrell
Jose De Paula	50.0	5.22	3.24	1.26	76	-0.1	Lance Davis
Sergio Santos	27.7	10.07	4.22	1.30	87	-0.1	Archie Corbin
Chris Martin	51.3	7.72	2.98	1.05	90	-0.1	Bo McLaughlin
Wilking Rodriguez	15.7	8.60	3.44	1.15	86	-0.1	David Lee
Johnny Barbato	52.7	8.71	3.76	1.37	86	-0.2	Chris Hernandez
Jaron Long	143.3	5.78	1.95	1.44	75	-0.3	Heath Totten
Branden Pinder	54.3	8.12	3.31	1.49	82	-0.4	Dan Kite
Luis Cessa	126.3	6.34	2.71	1.43	73	-0.4	Chris Mears
Andrew Bailey	29.0	9.93	3.72	2.17	71	-0.5	Bob Long
Miguel Sulbaran	88.0	5.52	3.89	1.33	70	-0.6	Kason Gabbard
Bryan Mitchell	108.3	6.90	4.82	1.25	72	-0.6	Charlie Zink
Brady Lail	132.0	5.45	3.00	1.43	72	-0.7	Chris Mears
Eric Wooten	87.3	5.77	3.09	1.65	67	-0.9	Tommy Phelps
Kyle Davies	110.3	5.47	2.69	1.63	68	-1.0	R.A. Dickey
Kyle Haynes	87.0	6.41	5.17	1.24	69	-1.0	Jake Robbins
Rookie Davis	120.0	6.75	3.15	1.65	68	-1.1	Derek Hankins
Vicente Campos	68.0	5.82	2.51	2.12	62	-1.1	Mitch Atkins
Matt Tracy	92.7	5.63	4.37	1.46	66	-1.2	Mike Matthews
Caleb Smith	112.7	6.55	4.95	1.68	64	-1.5	Jason Saenz

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.