2016 ZiPS Projections – Pittsburgh Pirates

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Cincinnati / Kansas City / Philadelphia / Toronto.

Batters
Andrew McCutchen has produced between -15 and -20 fielding runs in center field over the past two seasons, according both to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). It’s not ideal, that, but it also represents basically all the flaws in McCutchen’s current profile. Indeed, ZiPS projects the Pirates’ center fielder to improve slightly on his WAR total this coming year in slightly fewer plate appearances.

Because his role was unclear entering 2015, Jung-ho Kang was omitted from the infield portion of last year’s Pittsburgh depth chart; this year, he’s the centerpiece of it. The algorithm in Dan Szymborski’s computer doesn’t account specifically for how Kang’s season ended with a torn meniscus and fractured tibia. What it does account for is how Kang recorded something less than a full complement of plate appearances. Projected to miss all or some of April, Kang’s projected plate-appearance total (494) seems reasonable.

The most notable weakness among the club’s positional projections appears to be first base, currently occupied by Michael Morse. It would be a surprise to find that position occupied by Morse on opening day.

Pitchers
Pittsburgh pitchers recorded the third-highest WAR figure among all 30 staffs in the league last year. A.J. Burnett and J.A. Happ, whose first names are palindromes of each other, were responsible for roughly five of those approximately 22 wins. They’ve departed this offseason, however, replaced (for the moment) by Jon Niese and maybe Allen Webster. Niese and Webster are projected for only about two wins. Which is to say, three fewer. That seems dire. On the positive side, Burnett and Happ themselves were also projected for only two wins before the 2015 season — which is to say, before profiting from the tender ministrations of pitching coach Ray Searage.

The gold standard for bullpen construction over the last two seasons has been supplied by the Kansas City Royals. It’s notable, then, that Pittsburgh’s top-five relievers receive a better collective wins projection for 2016 than Kansas City’s. Mark Melancon and Tony Watson are responsible for much of that. Not inessential, however, is the newly acquired Juan Nicasio (101.2 IP, 0.7 zWAR), who signed for merely $3 million after being non-tendered by the Dodgers.

Bench/Prospects
Pittsburgh’s greatest holes currently reside in the infield and at the end of the starting rotation. Serendipitously, these are also the positions at which their two top prospects (by the projections) are most qualified. Alen Hanson didn’t receive a major-league call-up last year but did record 529 plate appearances at Triple-A Indianapolis in just his age-22 season. He’s forecast to provide roughly average major-league production this next season. Among the pitchers, right-hander Tyler Glasnow also ascended to Triple-A this past year — in this case, as just a 21-year-old. His plus raw stuff is complemented by an encouraging statistical projection (116.0 IP, 1.5 zWAR), as well.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Pittsburghers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Andrew McCutchen	R	29	CF	651	89	161	33	4	23	89	14	6
Starling Marte	R	27	LF	620	85	157	29	7	17	69	33	12
Jung-ho Kang	R	29	SS	494	60	112	25	2	16	61	5	3
Francisco Cervelli	R	30	C	326	35	79	12	3	4	28	1	0
Josh Harrison	R	28	3B	480	63	126	29	4	8	42	14	7
Gregory Polanco	L	24	RF	627	82	144	31	5	12	63	25	10
Alen Hanson	B	23	2B	547	58	124	20	13	11	59	23	10
Austin Meadows	L	21	CF	478	53	118	19	4	8	47	11	6
Jordy Mercer	R	29	SS	472	43	110	23	2	7	43	3	2
Keon Broxton	R	26	CF	495	53	95	18	7	11	48	18	7
Jake Goebbert	L	28	LF	444	54	92	17	4	11	51	3	2
Danny Ortiz	L	26	RF	510	54	115	26	3	14	58	3	3
Cole Figueroa	L	29	3B	473	46	113	18	3	4	39	4	2
Aramis Ramirez	R	38	3B	470	38	109	23	1	11	62	2	0
Deibinson Romero	R	29	3B	456	47	97	23	1	11	47	1	1
Willy Garcia	R	23	RF	518	57	116	21	5	18	62	4	6
Josh Bell	B	23	1B	582	65	137	22	8	10	64	6	3
Harold Ramirez	R	21	RF	377	41	92	14	4	5	36	16	14
Elias Diaz	R	25	C	358	35	78	16	3	4	34	2	4
Gorkys Hernandez	R	28	CF	395	41	83	15	3	5	33	14	5
Travis Snider	L	28	LF	334	34	74	14	2	9	36	2	1
Chris Stewart	R	34	C	201	14	45	7	0	1	15	1	1
Max Moroff	B	23	2B	584	57	119	23	5	6	47	12	12
Adam Frazier	L	24	SS	456	46	108	17	3	2	33	8	8
Pedro Florimon	B	29	SS	355	35	68	14	3	5	30	12	3
Jaff Decker	L	26	LF	349	40	69	15	2	6	30	8	4
Barrett Barnes	R	24	LF	291	34	62	13	1	6	28	10	6
Tony Sanchez	R	28	C	377	39	76	20	1	8	41	1	2
Reese McGuire	L	21	C	445	39	102	15	2	2	33	9	7
Sebastian Valle	R	25	C	314	29	66	14	1	6	31	1	2
Michael Morse	R	34	1B	355	33	79	15	1	12	37	0	0
Sean Rodriguez	R	31	2B	250	28	54	13	2	5	28	2	2
Wilkin Castillo	B	32	C	123	11	26	5	1	1	10	1	0
Gift Ngoepe	R	26	SS	412	36	69	13	4	5	30	7	6
Daniel Gamache	L	25	3B	397	38	87	18	2	5	34	3	5
Corey Hart	R	34	1B	254	28	57	11	1	9	34	2	0
Travis Ishikawa	L	32	1B	289	27	58	12	1	6	31	0	0
Gustavo Nunez	B	28	SS	297	28	64	8	1	2	19	9	6
Mel Rojas Jr.	B	26	CF	469	43	95	17	5	5	37	8	5
Hunter Morris	L	27	1B	349	33	73	16	2	8	35	1	0
John Bowker	L	32	1B	329	31	73	17	1	8	35	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Andrew McCutchen	651	12.9%	18.1%	.200	.332	.293	.392	.493	.379
Starling Marte	620	4.8%	21.9%	.166	.337	.278	.334	.444	.352
Jung-ho Kang	494	6.9%	27.3%	.173	.324	.252	.322	.425	.329
Francisco Cervelli	326	8.6%	18.4%	.104	.333	.274	.352	.378	.321
Josh Harrison	480	4.2%	15.0%	.136	.320	.282	.321	.418	.329
Gregory Polanco	627	8.3%	18.5%	.135	.298	.254	.317	.389	.319
Alen Hanson	547	5.1%	19.6%	.156	.289	.245	.284	.401	.305
Austin Meadows	478	5.9%	20.1%	.115	.322	.266	.311	.381	.310
Jordy Mercer	472	6.1%	16.9%	.111	.295	.254	.303	.365	.282
Keon Broxton	495	8.1%	34.3%	.145	.311	.213	.279	.358	.290
Jake Goebbert	444	9.9%	21.2%	.148	.278	.235	.315	.383	.307
Danny Ortiz	510	3.9%	22.0%	.153	.280	.238	.269	.391	.286
Cole Figueroa	473	6.8%	7.0%	.084	.274	.263	.313	.347	.291
Aramis Ramirez	470	4.9%	13.4%	.133	.268	.250	.296	.383	.294
Deibinson Romero	456	7.9%	20.4%	.142	.277	.237	.303	.379	.298
Willy Garcia	518	3.7%	30.1%	.173	.307	.236	.269	.409	.296
Josh Bell	582	8.9%	14.6%	.131	.295	.266	.331	.397	.315
Harold Ramirez	377	5.0%	20.2%	.107	.325	.265	.316	.372	.325
Elias Diaz	358	6.4%	17.3%	.104	.279	.239	.289	.343	.282
Gorkys Hernandez	395	6.8%	24.6%	.100	.301	.231	.289	.331	.284
Travis Snider	334	9.3%	23.1%	.149	.301	.246	.317	.395	.311
Chris Stewart	201	5.5%	15.4%	.055	.289	.247	.298	.302	.267
Max Moroff	584	8.0%	26.2%	.097	.306	.227	.290	.324	.280
Adam Frazier	456	5.5%	14.5%	.069	.299	.256	.302	.325	.285
Pedro Florimon	355	7.0%	27.6%	.108	.284	.211	.268	.319	.265
Jaff Decker	349	10.9%	21.8%	.122	.281	.228	.315	.350	.301
Barrett Barnes	291	7.6%	23.0%	.127	.298	.238	.311	.365	.311
Tony Sanchez	377	8.2%	24.7%	.136	.285	.226	.300	.362	.293
Reese McGuire	445	4.5%	13.7%	.060	.281	.246	.281	.306	.266
Sebastian Valle	314	4.1%	26.8%	.115	.288	.223	.256	.338	.258
Michael Morse	355	6.5%	26.2%	.163	.302	.243	.301	.406	.309
Sean Rodriguez	250	4.0%	24.4%	.140	.297	.236	.280	.376	.286
Wilkin Castillo	123	5.7%	16.3%	.089	.269	.230	.279	.319	.258
Gift Ngoepe	412	7.8%	34.7%	.098	.288	.187	.257	.285	.247
Daniel Gamache	397	5.5%	25.7%	.101	.313	.238	.284	.339	.279
Corey Hart	254	5.5%	24.0%	.170	.289	.243	.295	.413	.304
Travis Ishikawa	289	7.6%	27.3%	.123	.294	.223	.292	.346	.279
Gustavo Nunez	297	4.4%	18.9%	.058	.284	.233	.269	.291	.257
Mel Rojas Jr.	469	6.4%	25.4%	.098	.291	.220	.275	.318	.267
Hunter Morris	349	4.9%	26.9%	.134	.284	.222	.261	.356	.267
John Bowker	329	3.6%	24.6%	.138	.288	.233	.264	.371	.275

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Andrew McCutchen	651	7.4	146	-4	6.0	Dale Murphy
Starling Marte	620	5.7	116	10	4.0	Steve Henderson
Jung-ho Kang	494	4.9	107	-3	2.7	Mike Blowers
Francisco Cervelli	326	5.0	105	2	2.5	Buddy Rosar
Josh Harrison	480	5.1	105	1	2.4	Joe Randa
Gregory Polanco	627	4.6	97	10	2.4	Von Hayes
Alen Hanson	547	4.1	90	4	1.9	Jose Reyes
Austin Meadows	478	4.3	93	2	1.7	Rick Manning
Jordy Mercer	472	4.0	86	1	1.4	Christian Colonel
Keon Broxton	495	3.5	77	5	1.2	John Denman
Jake Goebbert	444	4.2	95	3	1.1	Pat Brady
Danny Ortiz	510	3.7	82	10	0.9	Kevin Reimer
Cole Figueroa	473	4.0	85	-2	0.9	Chip Hale
Aramis Ramirez	470	4.1	89	-4	0.8	Cal Ripken
Deibinson Romero	456	4.0	90	-5	0.7	Josh Klimek
Willy Garcia	518	3.7	87	6	0.7	Jim Lindeman
Josh Bell	582	4.8	103	-2	0.7	Gerald Perry
Harold Ramirez	377	3.9	92	4	0.7	David Green
Elias Diaz	358	3.3	76	-2	0.6	Guillermo Garcia
Gorkys Hernandez	395	3.5	74	2	0.6	Damon Mashore
Travis Snider	334	4.5	98	-1	0.6	Jeff Wetherby
Chris Stewart	201	3.2	69	2	0.6	Hector Ortiz
Max Moroff	584	3.0	72	4	0.5	Manuel Francois
Adam Frazier	456	3.4	76	-2	0.5	Ronny Cedeno
Pedro Florimon	355	3.1	64	2	0.5	Jake Wald
Jaff Decker	349	3.9	86	2	0.4	Jeff Corsaletti
Barrett Barnes	291	4.0	89	1	0.4	Richard Johnson
Tony Sanchez	377	3.7	85	-10	0.4	Del Rice
Reese McGuire	445	3.0	65	-1	0.4	Pat Dempsey
Sebastian Valle	314	2.9	65	-1	0.2	Alvin Colina
Michael Morse	355	4.4	96	-2	0.2	Jim Fregosi
Sean Rodriguez	250	3.6	82	-2	0.2	Dan DeMent
Wilkin Castillo	123	3.2	67	-2	0.0	Joe Kmak
Gift Ngoepe	412	2.3	52	5	0.0	Bryan Bass
Daniel Gamache	397	3.2	74	-2	0.0	Jeff Moronko
Corey Hart	254	4.4	96	-4	-0.2	Jim Fregosi
Travis Ishikawa	289	3.5	78	-1	-0.5	Ryan McGuire
Gustavo Nunez	297	2.6	57	-4	-0.6	Vance McHenry
Mel Rojas Jr.	469	3.0	66	-4	-0.6	Dustin Martin
Hunter Morris	349	3.3	71	-2	-1.0	Craig Cooper
John Bowker	329	3.4	76	-5	-1.2	Tom Nevers

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Gerrit Cole	R	25	30	30	190.0	180	46	13	172	70	65
Francisco Liriano	L	32	28	28	166.3	175	65	13	140	63	59
A.J. Burnett	R	39	24	24	154.7	124	55	12	156	73	68
Tyler Glasnow	R	22	24	24	116.0	130	64	11	95	51	48
Charlie Morton	R	32	24	24	138.7	103	45	11	138	65	61
Mark Melancon	R	31	71	0	68.0	64	12	4	57	20	19
Jon Niese	L	29	30	25	157.7	105	45	13	167	76	71
Jeff Locke	L	28	28	28	162.7	123	61	16	162	80	75
Steven Brault	L	24	26	26	139.0	97	42	13	142	67	63
Tony Watson	L	31	72	0	70.0	63	15	4	60	22	21
Radhames Liz	R	32	25	16	94.3	80	39	8	90	44	41
Nick Kingham	R	24	15	15	88.7	68	27	9	89	43	40
Juan Nicasio	R	29	43	13	101.7	86	41	9	98	48	45
Antonio Bastardo	L	30	60	0	53.3	60	24	4	42	19	18
Joe Blanton	R	35	24	9	78.0	72	18	9	77	36	34
Allen Webster	R	26	26	24	131.0	91	49	14	133	68	64
Arquimedes Caminero	R	29	71	0	73.3	71	27	7	64	30	28
Wilfredo Boscan	R	26	23	15	95.3	58	32	9	102	49	46
Chris Volstad	R	29	25	22	133.7	66	44	11	147	72	67
Jared Hughes	R	30	65	0	62.7	38	20	4	63	27	25
Chad Kuhl	R	23	25	25	135.7	84	44	16	145	74	69
Curtis Partch	R	29	47	0	60.3	60	27	5	53	26	24
A.J. Morris	R	29	38	4	68.7	49	27	5	69	33	31
John Holdzkom	R	28	30	0	31.0	36	19	2	25	13	12
Jorge Rondon	R	28	49	0	67.3	51	23	4	66	30	28
Trevor Williams	R	24	25	24	129.0	82	40	14	143	71	66
Jeff Inman	R	28	26	0	32.0	25	10	2	31	14	13
Josh Wall	R	29	37	0	44.7	39	17	3	43	20	19
Jameson Taillon	R	24	12	11	67.0	43	27	6	72	36	34
Rob Scahill	R	29	43	0	60.7	47	22	6	60	29	27
Jeremy Bleich	L	29	31	7	70.3	48	30	6	72	37	35
Charlie Leesman	L	29	15	10	55.7	44	29	7	57	32	30
Bobby LaFromboise	L	30	62	0	61.3	52	22	7	60	30	28
Casey Sadler	R	25	20	19	107.7	65	30	15	116	61	57
Guido Knudson	R	26	44	1	65.3	56	29	7	65	33	31
Brad Lincoln	R	31	36	8	76.3	63	39	8	75	42	39
Adam Miller	R	31	18	2	37.3	25	13	5	40	21	20
Angel Sanchez	R	26	25	23	124.7	81	48	18	138	77	72

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Gerrit Cole	190.0	788	22.8%	5.8%	.294	3.08	3.01	82	79
Francisco Liriano	166.3	704	24.9%	9.2%	.284	3.19	3.28	85	87
A.J. Burnett	154.7	675	18.4%	8.1%	.304	3.96	3.81	105	100
Tyler Glasnow	116.0	507	25.6%	12.6%	.285	3.72	3.99	99	105
Charlie Morton	138.7	599	17.2%	7.5%	.298	3.96	3.92	105	103
Mark Melancon	68.0	273	23.4%	4.4%	.277	2.51	2.62	67	69
Jon Niese	157.7	685	15.3%	6.6%	.299	4.05	3.87	108	102
Jeff Locke	162.7	711	17.3%	8.6%	.289	4.15	4.11	111	108
Steven Brault	139.0	601	16.1%	7.0%	.293	4.08	4.06	109	107
Tony Watson	70.0	285	22.1%	5.3%	.283	2.70	2.92	72	77
Radhames Liz	94.3	412	19.4%	9.5%	.294	3.91	3.97	104	105
Nick Kingham	88.7	382	17.8%	7.1%	.293	4.06	4.00	108	105
Juan Nicasio	101.7	444	19.4%	9.2%	.292	3.98	3.77	106	99
Antonio Bastardo	53.3	226	26.6%	10.6%	.280	3.04	3.24	81	85
Joe Blanton	78.0	329	21.9%	5.5%	.298	3.92	3.47	104	91
Allen Webster	131.0	575	15.8%	8.5%	.288	4.40	4.47	117	118
Arquimedes Caminero	73.3	311	22.8%	8.7%	.285	3.44	3.74	92	98
Wilfredo Boscan	95.3	420	13.8%	7.6%	.294	4.34	4.27	116	113
Chris Volstad	133.7	592	11.1%	7.4%	.293	4.51	4.34	120	115
Jared Hughes	62.7	271	14.0%	7.4%	.290	3.59	3.88	96	102
Chad Kuhl	135.7	596	14.1%	7.4%	.290	4.58	4.61	122	121
Curtis Partch	60.3	261	23.0%	10.3%	.291	3.58	3.74	95	99
A.J. Morris	68.7	302	16.2%	8.9%	.295	4.06	4.04	108	106
John Holdzkom	31.0	137	26.3%	13.9%	.291	3.48	3.61	93	95
Jorge Rondon	67.3	291	17.5%	7.9%	.295	3.74	3.53	100	93
Trevor Williams	129.0	570	14.4%	7.0%	.302	4.60	4.40	123	116
Jeff Inman	32.0	137	18.2%	7.3%	.296	3.66	3.54	97	93
Josh Wall	44.7	194	20.1%	8.8%	.303	3.83	3.50	102	92
Jameson Taillon	67.0	300	14.3%	9.0%	.300	4.57	4.39	122	116
Rob Scahill	60.7	264	17.8%	8.3%	.290	4.01	3.99	107	105
Jeremy Bleich	70.3	313	15.3%	9.6%	.293	4.48	4.31	119	114
Charlie Leesman	55.7	253	17.4%	11.5%	.294	4.85	4.94	129	130
Bobby LaFromboise	61.3	266	19.6%	8.3%	.291	4.11	4.08	109	107
Casey Sadler	107.7	469	13.9%	6.4%	.285	4.76	4.71	127	124
Guido Knudson	65.3	290	19.3%	10.0%	.298	4.27	4.17	114	110
Brad Lincoln	76.3	343	18.4%	11.4%	.293	4.60	4.49	123	118
Adam Miller	37.3	165	15.2%	7.9%	.292	4.82	4.69	128	124
Angel Sanchez	124.7	560	14.5%	8.6%	.295	5.20	5.06	138	133

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Gerrit Cole	190.0	8.53	2.18	0.62	118	4.2	Jason Schmidt
Francisco Liriano	166.3	9.47	3.52	0.70	114	3.5	Ted Lilly
A.J. Burnett	154.7	7.21	3.20	0.70	92	1.6	Rick Sutcliffe
Tyler Glasnow	116.0	10.09	4.97	0.85	98	1.5	A.J. Burnett
Charlie Morton	138.7	6.68	2.92	0.71	92	1.4	Andy Hawkins
Mark Melancon	68.0	8.47	1.59	0.53	145	1.3	Jeff Shaw
Jon Niese	157.7	5.99	2.57	0.74	90	1.3	Horacio Ramirez
Jeff Locke	162.7	6.80	3.37	0.89	88	1.2	Don Collins
Steven Brault	139.0	6.28	2.72	0.84	89	1.1	Gavin Osteen
Tony Watson	70.0	8.10	1.93	0.51	135	1.1	Steve Kline
Radhames Liz	94.3	7.64	3.72	0.76	93	0.9	Dan Petry
Nick Kingham	88.7	6.90	2.74	0.91	90	0.8	Chris Bosio
Juan Nicasio	101.7	7.61	3.63	0.80	91	0.7	Anastacio Martinez
Antonio Bastardo	53.3	10.13	4.05	0.68	120	0.7	Greg McCarthy
Joe Blanton	78.0	8.31	2.08	1.04	93	0.6	John Wasdin
Allen Webster	131.0	6.25	3.37	0.96	83	0.5	Kip Bouknight
Arquimedes Caminero	73.3	8.72	3.32	0.86	106	0.5	Pat Flury
Wilfredo Boscan	95.3	5.48	3.02	0.85	84	0.3	Preston Larrison
Chris Volstad	133.7	4.44	2.96	0.74	81	0.3	Dana Kiecker
Jared Hughes	62.7	5.45	2.87	0.57	101	0.3	Jack Aker
Chad Kuhl	135.7	5.57	2.92	1.06	80	0.2	Doug Vanderweele
Curtis Partch	60.3	8.96	4.03	0.75	102	0.2	Doug Robertson
A.J. Morris	68.7	6.42	3.54	0.66	90	0.2	Marty McLeary
John Holdzkom	31.0	10.45	5.52	0.58	105	0.2	Calvin Jones
Jorge Rondon	67.3	6.82	3.08	0.53	97	0.2	Weston Weber
Trevor Williams	129.0	5.72	2.79	0.98	79	0.2	Luis Mendoza
Jeff Inman	32.0	7.03	2.81	0.56	100	0.1	Humberto Robinson
Josh Wall	44.7	7.85	3.42	0.60	95	0.1	Keith Shepherd
Jameson Taillon	67.0	5.78	3.63	0.81	80	0.1	C.J. Wilson
Rob Scahill	60.7	6.97	3.26	0.89	91	-0.1	Jamie Emiliano
Jeremy Bleich	70.3	6.15	3.84	0.77	81	-0.1	Scott Forster
Charlie Leesman	55.7	7.11	4.69	1.13	75	-0.1	Adrian Burnside
Bobby LaFromboise	61.3	7.63	3.23	1.03	89	-0.2	Bobby Bevel
Casey Sadler	107.7	5.43	2.51	1.25	76	-0.2	Apolinar Garcia
Guido Knudson	65.3	7.72	4.00	0.96	85	-0.2	John Thompson
Brad Lincoln	76.3	7.43	4.60	0.94	79	-0.2	Ken Ray
Adam Miller	37.3	6.03	3.14	1.21	76	-0.3	Elmer Riddle
Angel Sanchez	124.7	5.85	3.46	1.30	70	-0.9	Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.