2016 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres by Carson Cistulli January 8, 2016 After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Kansas City / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto. Batters The Padres entered the 2015 season having placed a sizable wager against the importance of outfield defense, choosing to deploy a unit consisting of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton. It didn’t pay off particularly well: San Diego outfielders produced a collective -23.6 UZR, third-worst among all major-league clubs, while recording merely the 12th-best offensive line (107 wRC+) — i.e. not enough to compensate for the unit’s defensive shortcomings. Overall, the aforementioned triumvirate posted a combined 4.6 WAR, or 1.8 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Not terrible, that, but also not commensurate with the club’s financial investment in them. Defense will be less of an issue for the team this year, according to Dan Szymborski’s computer. Jon Jay and Melvin Upton are both projected to provide slightly above-average defense as center fielders — and, owing to how the game is traditionally played, only one of them is likely to occupy center at any given time, meaning the second will probably be playing a very capable left field alongside the first. Travis Jankowski (439 PA, +8 DEF in CF) and the newly acquired Manuel Margot (518 PA, +7 DEF in CF) are also candidates to prevent runs at an above-average rate. The flaw for the current iteration of the Padres isn’t so much outfield defense as it is almost all the other aspects of the club. This is perhaps best expressed by observing how Derek Norris (468 PA, 2.9 zWAR) receives the top projection among San Diego’s position players. Norris absolutely has his virtues. To say that he’s not an ideal franchise cornerstone, however, is to say a correct thing. Pitchers The 2015 season marked the ninth consecutive one in which right-hander James Shields recorded at least 200 innings — and the first (of those nine) in which he failed to post at least two wins. Likely because ZiPS is designed to rain figuratively all over figurative parades, it projects Shields’ 200-inning streak to end. It also projects him to cross the two-win threshold again, though. He and Tyson Ross (178.0 IP, 3.3 zWAR) are the foundation of the rotation. Meanwhile, ZiPS is not optimistic about right-hander Andrew Cashner (155.2 IP, 1.5 zWAR). With regard to the bullpen, one would be hard-pressed to deny its existence — or that it would seem to benefit greatly from the presence of left-hander Drew Pomeranz, who’s projected for a swing role, inside of it. Bench/Prospects The aforementioned Jankowski and Margot profile as the club’s top rookie-eligible players, each expected to parlay a combination of above-average speed and defense into a roughly average overall package (the latter’s more solidly average than the former’s). Beyond them, Rule 5 outfielder Jabari Blash (442 PA, 1.1 zWAR) appears capable, as well, of serving as a useful bench player. Among pitchers, there’s less about which to get excited. One notes, however, that recently signed left-hander Buddy Baumann (74.1 IP, 0.5 zWAR), the author of zero major-league innings ever, resembles a useful bullpen piece. Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Justin Upton R 28 LF 613 86 135 27 3 25 82 13 4 Derek Norris R 27 C 468 55 104 23 1 13 54 4 1 Manuel Margot R 21 CF 518 54 121 23 5 10 47 31 17 Yangervis Solarte B 28 3B 564 61 135 28 2 11 56 1 0 Christian Bethancourt R 24 C 436 46 103 23 1 9 45 8 3 Cory Spangenberg L 25 2B 429 49 101 18 9 6 35 13 6 Wil Myers R 25 CF 443 60 103 21 1 15 53 8 2 Travis Jankowski L 25 CF 439 48 97 13 5 2 31 25 8 Jon Jay L 31 CF 413 44 92 13 2 4 30 6 3 Jabari Blash R 26 RF 442 58 91 17 1 21 55 7 4 Austin Hedges R 23 C 335 34 69 14 1 6 33 1 2 Melvin Upton R 31 CF 396 42 76 16 3 10 29 13 4 Jose Pirela R 26 2B 480 55 112 20 5 8 42 8 3 Rymer Liriano R 25 RF 515 61 103 22 3 11 50 15 8 Casey McElroy L 26 2B 512 58 108 18 3 8 46 2 3 Jose Rondon R 22 SS 464 44 103 17 4 2 31 13 10 Erik Kratz R 36 C 212 22 44 11 0 7 24 0 0 Tim Federowicz R 28 C 257 27 55 13 0 5 29 0 0 Alexi Amarista L 27 SS 410 42 89 14 4 6 43 7 1 Matt Kemp R 31 RF 543 69 129 27 2 16 78 9 3 Taylor Lindsey L 24 2B 456 48 97 20 4 9 40 4 3 Ryan Schimpf L 28 2B 459 49 85 21 1 18 49 2 2 Nick Evans R 30 1B 432 46 93 19 1 13 47 0 1 Carlos Asuaje L 24 2B 491 46 100 20 4 8 42 5 6 Hunter Renfroe R 24 RF 571 63 117 26 3 17 66 5 2 Brett Wallace L 29 1B 470 56 104 19 1 16 52 1 1 Rocky Gale R 28 C 288 24 62 10 1 1 21 1 1 Alex Dickerson L 26 LF 439 51 98 23 4 9 50 4 2 Clint Barmes R 37 SS 176 20 37 9 1 2 12 0 1 Hector Gomez R 28 SS 326 31 66 16 4 5 28 3 3 Tyson Gillies L 27 LF 248 23 49 7 2 3 18 5 3 Mike McCoy R 35 SS 307 29 56 10 1 2 20 8 4 Jason Lane R 39 1B 65 7 11 3 0 1 6 0 0 Fernando Perez L 22 2B 520 54 104 19 2 11 53 2 2 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Justin Upton 613 10.9% 25.8% .202 .307 .252 .338 .454 .346 Derek Norris 468 8.8% 23.3% .152 .302 .247 .318 .399 .316 Manuel Margot 518 5.4% 16.8% .130 .285 .251 .293 .381 .316 Yangervis Solarte 564 6.6% 10.8% .126 .276 .262 .313 .388 .306 Christian Bethancourt 436 3.4% 20.2% .125 .293 .249 .274 .374 .282 Cory Spangenberg 429 6.5% 22.4% .139 .330 .260 .312 .399 .311 Wil Myers 443 9.3% 25.1% .172 .321 .259 .330 .431 .332 Travis Jankowski 439 6.8% 18.2% .072 .295 .241 .296 .313 .286 Jon Jay 413 7.0% 16.2% .080 .299 .254 .331 .334 .293 Jabari Blash 442 8.6% 33.5% .208 .307 .231 .308 .439 .331 Austin Hedges 335 4.8% 21.5% .109 .266 .221 .259 .330 .256 Melvin Upton 396 9.1% 29.8% .147 .288 .215 .287 .362 .291 Jose Pirela 480 5.8% 14.4% .122 .282 .253 .301 .375 .300 Rymer Liriano 515 7.6% 31.3% .130 .309 .221 .287 .351 .291 Casey McElroy 512 6.8% 20.1% .103 .281 .232 .295 .335 .279 Jose Rondon 464 5.2% 17.7% .072 .291 .240 .282 .312 .272 Erik Kratz 212 7.1% 21.2% .166 .257 .228 .283 .394 .290 Tim Federowicz 257 6.6% 28.0% .119 .311 .233 .285 .352 .276 Alexi Amarista 410 6.1% 15.1% .107 .267 .237 .284 .344 .271 Matt Kemp 543 7.4% 23.9% .160 .319 .261 .317 .421 .323 Taylor Lindsey 456 7.2% 19.1% .132 .272 .233 .291 .365 .289 Ryan Schimpf 459 8.7% 30.3% .187 .261 .207 .283 .394 .296 Nick Evans 432 7.4% 24.8% .151 .288 .235 .294 .386 .299 Carlos Asuaje 491 7.7% 23.2% .118 .286 .227 .294 .345 .287 Hunter Renfroe 571 5.8% 30.3% .157 .291 .221 .270 .378 .282 Brett Wallace 470 6.6% 29.1% .160 .315 .242 .302 .402 .306 Rocky Gale 288 3.5% 18.1% .055 .277 .229 .260 .284 .238 Alex Dickerson 439 5.9% 24.1% .143 .305 .243 .295 .386 .298 Clint Barmes 176 4.5% 21.6% .105 .287 .230 .282 .335 .264 Hector Gomez 326 3.4% 24.5% .128 .275 .216 .252 .344 .259 Tyson Gillies 248 3.2% 28.6% .086 .289 .211 .249 .297 .247 Mike McCoy 307 9.1% 21.2% .067 .265 .207 .288 .274 .263 Jason Lane 65 7.7% 30.8% .108 .278 .196 .270 .304 .249 Fernando Perez 520 5.2% 27.5% .116 .278 .214 .260 .330 .259 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Justin Upton 613 5.6 125 1 3.3 Chili Davis Derek Norris 468 4.6 104 -1 2.9 Nick Hundley Manuel Margot 518 4.0 91 7 2.1 Milton Bradley Yangervis Solarte 564 4.5 100 -2 2.0 Luis Lopez Christian Bethancourt 436 3.7 84 4 1.9 Jorge Pedre Cory Spangenberg 429 4.6 102 0 1.7 Bill Russell Wil Myers 443 5.3 116 -10 1.6 Ron Swoboda Travis Jankowski 439 3.5 75 8 1.4 Evan Frey Jon Jay 413 4.0 92 2 1.4 Jim Eppard Jabari Blash 442 4.7 111 -4 1.1 Craig Wilson Austin Hedges 335 2.9 68 7 1.1 Jeff Winchester Melvin Upton 396 3.7 85 3 1.1 Bo Porter Jose Pirela 480 4.1 93 -4 1.0 Orlando Hudson Rymer Liriano 515 3.5 82 10 1.0 Marvin Garrison Casey McElroy 512 3.4 80 3 1.0 Brian Hitchcox Jose Rondon 464 3.0 71 5 0.9 Ron Gardenhire Erik Kratz 212 3.9 92 -1 0.8 Mike Macfarlane Tim Federowicz 257 3.5 82 0 0.8 Dusty Brown Alexi Amarista 410 3.6 79 -1 0.7 Chris Lombardozzi Matt Kemp 543 4.9 109 -10 0.7 Cleon Jones Taylor Lindsey 456 3.7 87 -3 0.6 Richard Slavik Ryan Schimpf 459 3.8 92 -7 0.5 Mike Pagliarulo Nick Evans 432 4.0 93 3 0.4 Butch Huskey Carlos Asuaje 491 3.4 82 -3 0.4 Doug Saunders Hunter Renfroe 571 3.6 83 5 0.4 John Mayberry Jr. Brett Wallace 470 4.3 100 -1 0.4 Chris Wakeland Rocky Gale 288 2.5 56 4 0.3 Ken Huckaby Alex Dickerson 439 4.1 93 -2 0.3 Rod Allen Clint Barmes 176 3.2 76 0 0.3 Jeff Branson Hector Gomez 326 2.9 69 -2 -0.1 Tripp Cromer Tyson Gillies 248 2.5 56 7 -0.2 Jay Sitzman Mike McCoy 307 2.7 63 -3 -0.3 Mark Belanger Jason Lane 65 2.8 64 -3 -0.5 Tom Wilson Fernando Perez 520 2.9 68 -3 -0.6 Sergio Santos *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Tyson Ross R 29 29 29 178.0 182 69 11 154 68 64 James Shields R 34 29 29 185.7 181 56 19 169 78 73 Andrew Cashner R 29 26 26 155.7 128 47 14 152 72 67 Drew Pomeranz L 27 39 14 100.7 106 40 10 86 41 38 Ian Kennedy R 31 28 28 161.7 160 55 21 155 79 74 Brandon Morrow R 31 9 9 52.0 49 18 4 48 22 21 Kevin Quackenbush R 27 66 0 67.3 70 26 5 58 26 24 Nick Vincent R 29 65 0 67.0 75 21 6 58 26 24 Buddy Baumann L 28 35 6 74.3 69 28 6 69 32 30 Leonel Campos R 28 47 0 55.0 72 28 4 42 20 19 Jay Jackson R 28 57 0 67.7 71 24 5 59 27 25 Cory Mazzoni R 26 24 7 63.3 61 20 6 60 29 27 Colin Rea R 25 27 22 118.7 88 46 11 120 60 56 Brandon Maurer R 25 61 0 60.0 53 19 5 55 25 23 Jerry Sullivan R 28 43 0 51.7 50 18 4 47 21 20 Marcos Mateo R 32 38 0 44.7 47 18 4 38 18 17 Zack Segovia R 33 12 11 59.0 45 18 7 61 30 28 Cesar Vargas R 24 46 0 72.3 69 24 7 67 31 29 Josh Johnson R 32 13 13 69.0 57 26 6 73 36 34 Caleb Thielbar L 29 52 0 53.7 45 21 4 50 24 22 Jon Edwards R 28 49 0 53.7 65 34 5 44 24 22 Ryan Buchter L 29 47 0 54.7 64 37 4 44 25 23 Cory Luebke L 31 6 4 17.3 15 6 2 17 9 8 Odrisamer Despaigne R 29 28 19 120.7 80 36 13 125 64 60 Dale Thayer R 35 53 0 50.7 46 17 6 48 24 22 Scott Elbert L 30 20 0 18.7 18 8 2 17 9 8 Ryan Butler R 24 20 6 52.0 34 22 5 54 28 26 Blake Smith R 28 41 0 50.3 49 27 4 46 25 23 Tayron Guerrero R 25 47 0 54.0 54 28 6 50 27 25 Jose Torres L 22 48 0 73.0 70 33 8 69 36 34 Aaron Northcraft R 26 31 16 104.7 76 50 11 109 59 55 Carlos Pimentel R 26 27 21 118.0 97 57 16 120 67 63 Chris Rearick L 28 43 0 46.3 39 21 5 46 25 23 Josh Martin R 26 43 0 66.0 64 26 8 63 34 32 Frank Garces L 26 63 0 65.3 59 32 8 63 34 32 Eury de la Rosa L 26 57 0 67.0 60 34 7 65 35 33 Justin Hancock R 25 22 21 107.0 67 49 11 116 63 59 Robbie Erlin L 25 24 23 124.3 96 37 19 132 73 68 Daniel McCutchen R 33 24 14 89.0 62 24 16 98 55 51 Luis Perdomo R 23 19 18 100.7 74 40 15 111 62 58 Jason Lane L 39 23 22 133.7 60 35 22 157 87 81 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Tyson Ross 178.0 757 24.0% 9.1% .294 3.24 3.17 87 82 James Shields 185.7 782 23.1% 7.2% .290 3.54 3.55 95 92 Andrew Cashner 155.7 666 19.2% 7.1% .292 3.87 3.63 104 94 Drew Pomeranz 100.7 428 24.8% 9.3% .283 3.40 3.63 92 94 Ian Kennedy 161.7 695 23.0% 7.9% .296 4.12 3.95 111 102 Brandon Morrow 52.0 222 22.1% 8.1% .291 3.63 3.32 98 86 Kevin Quackenbush 67.3 286 24.5% 9.1% .290 3.21 3.16 86 82 Nick Vincent 67.0 280 26.8% 7.5% .295 3.22 3.07 87 79 Buddy Baumann 74.3 320 21.6% 8.8% .296 3.63 3.57 98 92 Leonel Campos 55.0 235 30.6% 11.9% .295 3.11 3.13 84 81 Jay Jackson 67.7 286 24.8% 8.4% .295 3.33 3.13 90 81 Cory Mazzoni 63.3 270 22.6% 7.4% .300 3.84 3.56 103 92 Colin Rea 118.7 522 16.9% 8.8% .295 4.25 4.20 114 108 Brandon Maurer 60.0 254 20.9% 7.5% .284 3.45 3.38 93 87 Jerry Sullivan 51.7 220 22.7% 8.2% .294 3.48 3.34 94 86 Marcos Mateo 44.7 190 24.7% 9.5% .288 3.43 3.57 92 92 Zack Segovia 59.0 256 17.6% 7.0% .295 4.27 4.25 115 110 Cesar Vargas 72.3 308 22.4% 7.8% .294 3.61 3.63 97 94 Josh Johnson 69.0 306 18.6% 8.5% .312 4.43 3.77 119 97 Caleb Thielbar 53.7 232 19.4% 9.0% .287 3.69 3.57 99 92 Jon Edwards 53.7 239 27.2% 14.2% .295 3.69 4.02 99 104 Ryan Buchter 54.7 245 26.1% 15.1% .292 3.79 3.86 102 100 Cory Luebke 17.3 75 20.0% 8.0% .289 4.15 3.97 112 103 Odrisamer Despaigne 120.7 523 15.3% 6.9% .289 4.48 4.26 121 110 Dale Thayer 50.7 217 21.2% 7.8% .286 3.91 3.77 105 97 Scott Elbert 18.7 81 22.2% 9.9% .288 3.86 4.07 104 105 Ryan Butler 52.0 232 14.7% 9.5% .292 4.50 4.55 121 117 Blake Smith 50.3 224 21.9% 12.1% .298 4.11 3.92 111 101 Tayron Guerrero 54.0 240 22.5% 11.7% .295 4.17 4.33 112 112 Jose Torres 73.0 321 21.8% 10.3% .296 4.19 4.11 113 106 Aaron Northcraft 104.7 473 16.1% 10.6% .297 4.73 4.62 127 119 Carlos Pimentel 118.0 531 18.3% 10.7% .294 4.81 4.88 129 126 Chris Rearick 46.3 206 18.9% 10.2% .295 4.47 4.31 120 111 Josh Martin 66.0 287 22.3% 9.1% .297 4.36 4.12 117 106 Frank Garces 65.3 291 20.3% 11.0% .291 4.41 4.46 119 115 Eury de la Rosa 67.0 300 20.0% 11.3% .296 4.43 4.25 119 110 Justin Hancock 107.0 486 13.8% 10.1% .297 4.96 4.76 133 123 Robbie Erlin 124.3 542 17.7% 6.8% .294 4.92 4.62 132 119 Daniel McCutchen 89.0 389 15.9% 6.2% .290 5.16 4.98 139 129 Luis Perdomo 100.7 453 16.3% 8.8% .303 5.19 5.03 140 130 Jason Lane 133.7 593 10.1% 5.9% .288 5.45 5.30 147 137 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Tyson Ross 178.0 9.20 3.49 0.56 107 3.3 Matt Clement James Shields 185.7 8.77 2.71 0.92 98 2.6 Andy Benes Andrew Cashner 155.7 7.40 2.72 0.81 89 1.5 Adam Eaton Drew Pomeranz 100.7 9.47 3.57 0.89 102 1.3 Brian Barnes Ian Kennedy 161.7 8.91 3.06 1.17 84 0.9 Scott Elarton Brandon Morrow 52.0 8.48 3.12 0.69 95 0.7 Charlie Puleo Kevin Quackenbush 67.3 9.36 3.48 0.67 108 0.6 Steve Wapnick Nick Vincent 67.0 10.07 2.82 0.81 107 0.6 Brian Sanches Buddy Baumann 74.3 8.36 3.39 0.73 95 0.5 Matt Dunbar Leonel Campos 55.0 11.78 4.58 0.65 111 0.5 Calvin Jones Jay Jackson 67.7 9.44 3.19 0.66 104 0.5 Jason Boyd Cory Mazzoni 63.3 8.67 2.84 0.85 90 0.4 Mike Iglesias Colin Rea 118.7 6.67 3.49 0.83 81 0.4 Jonah Bayliss Brandon Maurer 60.0 7.95 2.85 0.75 100 0.3 Mark Brown Jerry Sullivan 51.7 8.70 3.13 0.70 99 0.2 Jesus Colome Marcos Mateo 44.7 9.46 3.62 0.81 101 0.2 Jason Childers Zack Segovia 59.0 6.86 2.75 1.07 81 0.2 Pete Vuckovich Cesar Vargas 72.3 8.59 2.99 0.87 96 0.1 Jeff Martin Josh Johnson 69.0 7.43 3.39 0.78 78 0.1 Evan Thomas Caleb Thielbar 53.7 7.54 3.52 0.67 94 0.1 Jim Roland Jon Edwards 53.7 10.89 5.70 0.84 94 0.1 Calvin Jones Ryan Buchter 54.7 10.53 6.09 0.66 91 0.0 Greg McCarthy Cory Luebke 17.3 7.80 3.12 1.04 83 0.0 Junior Walsh Odrisamer Despaigne 120.7 5.97 2.68 0.97 77 -0.1 Vicente Bonilla Dale Thayer 50.7 8.17 3.02 1.07 89 -0.1 Terry Mathews Scott Elbert 18.7 8.66 3.85 0.96 90 -0.1 Scott Watkins Ryan Butler 52.0 5.88 3.81 0.87 77 -0.2 Dan Rambo Blake Smith 50.3 8.77 4.83 0.72 84 -0.2 Bart Evans Tayron Guerrero 54.0 9.00 4.67 1.00 83 -0.4 Brett Wayne Jose Torres 73.0 8.63 4.07 0.99 83 -0.4 Brian Burres Aaron Northcraft 104.7 6.53 4.30 0.95 73 -0.5 Jose Segura Carlos Pimentel 118.0 7.40 4.35 1.22 72 -0.5 Mike Romano Chris Rearick 46.3 7.58 4.08 0.97 77 -0.5 Tom Martin Josh Martin 66.0 8.73 3.55 1.09 79 -0.6 Bo Hall Frank Garces 65.3 8.13 4.41 1.10 78 -0.6 Chad Miles Eury de la Rosa 67.0 8.06 4.57 0.94 78 -0.6 Brad Weis Justin Hancock 107.0 5.64 4.12 0.93 70 -0.7 Mark Woodyard Robbie Erlin 124.3 6.95 2.68 1.38 70 -0.8 Jason Pierson Daniel McCutchen 89.0 6.27 2.43 1.62 67 -1.0 Jeff Harris Luis Perdomo 100.7 6.61 3.57 1.34 67 -1.0 Jared Jensen Jason Lane 133.7 4.04 2.36 1.48 63 -1.9 Jerry Reuss *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.