2016 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
When preparing the depth-chart graphics such as one finds below, it’s not always possible to fully represent the manner in which every player is likely to be deployed over the course of a season. In case of the Giants, for example, Buster Posey (606 PA, 6.3 zWAR) is a candidate to receive a number of starts at first base. Yet it’s also probably not inaccurate to characterize Brandon Belt (485 PA, 2.5 zWAR) as the team’s starting first baseman. To include Posey’s name at first wouldn’t have been wrong, at all. But it would have also required seconds — or perhaps even an entire minute — of more work. That’s a minute which the author could have utilized to the end of Googling his name on the internet and further crushing himself under the weight of his own vanity.

Posey isn’t merely the best player on the Giants, but also nearly the whole league. Angel Pagan (473 PA, 0.4 zWAR) definitely isn’t the worst player in the league, but he does appear — per Dan Szymborski’s computer, at least — he does appear to represent the club’s worst projected starter. If anyone cares, Jarrett Parker (515 PA, 1.1 zWAR) is also an outfielder and, despite a forecasted strikeout rate of 39.4%, receives a more encouraging prognosis than Pagan.

Pitchers
A 40-year-old version of Tim Hudson won’t pitch for San Francisco this year. After throwing 123.2 innings of replacement-level ball in 2015, the right-hander retired following the season. Despite his departure, it appears as though Hudson nonetheless remains with the club in spirit: Johnny Cueto’s (207.0 IP, 4.1 zWAR) top comp from the past, it seems, is the 30-year-old version of Hudson. Together, Cueto and Madison Bumgarner (210.0 IP, 4.8 zWAR) are projected to produce roughly nine wins in roughly 400 innings. A strong combination, that.

As for the bullpen, it’s in a position — like if the Giants remain in contention at the deadline, for example — to benefit from an upgrade or two. Hunter Strickland (55.2 IP, 0.8 zWAR) receives the top forecast of any Giants pitcher on a per-inning basis — and, assuming a bigger load of innings, might begin to resemble a more classic relief-ace type. As currently constructed, however, the club’s top-five relievers receive one of the lowest collective WAR figures among the teams projected here thus far.

Bench/Prospects
While absent from the depth-chart graphic below, outfielder Gregor Blanco (422 PA, 0.9 zWAR) has also averaged 445 plate appearances annually during his four seasons in San Francisco. He’s likely to play a not inconsequential role with the club. Ehire Adrianza (331 PA, 0.9 zWAR) receive the top projection among the club’s non-starting infielders. In terms of rookie-eligible hitters, few appear ready for the majors after the aforementioned Parker. The data from Szymborski’s computer suggests not only that Clayton Blackburn (127.2 IP, 1.0 zWAR) is the club’s top rookie-eligible pitcher, but also the top starter not included in the depth chart.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Los Gigantes, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Buster Posey	R	29	C	606	70	165	29	1	18	86	2	1
Matt Duffy	R	25	3B	573	67	145	25	5	11	64	13	2
Brandon Crawford	L	29	SS	545	58	122	26	5	14	67	5	3
Joe Panik	L	25	2B	568	68	143	26	4	7	49	4	3
Brandon Belt	L	28	1B	485	63	114	26	3	16	56	7	3
Denard Span	L	32	CF	499	62	128	26	4	5	34	16	4
Hunter Pence	R	33	RF	485	66	118	21	4	15	65	9	3
Andrew Susac	R	26	C	311	34	62	12	2	6	29	0	0
Jarrett Parker	L	27	RF	515	61	98	18	4	15	55	12	6
Ehire Adrianza	B	26	SS	331	33	66	12	2	3	24	7	3
Gregor Blanco	L	32	CF	422	54	98	18	4	4	33	13	6
Marlon Byrd	R	38	LF	527	55	123	23	3	17	68	2	1
Ali Castillo	R	27	SS	413	35	88	13	2	3	30	15	8
Gorkys Hernandez	R	28	CF	395	40	81	14	2	4	31	14	5
Kyle Blanks	R	29	1B	185	24	41	9	0	6	18	1	0
Angel Pagan	B	34	CF	473	58	117	20	4	4	36	12	5
Christian Arroyo	R	21	SS	459	45	107	21	2	7	42	5	4
Kelby Tomlinson	R	26	2B	518	52	113	15	4	3	39	20	9
Hak-Ju Lee	L	25	SS	325	31	63	11	2	3	22	13	4
Mac Williamson	R	25	RF	414	48	87	17	2	9	39	4	1
Ryan Lollis	L	29	RF	460	46	104	19	3	4	36	6	3
Brandon Hicks	R	30	2B	295	30	50	11	2	7	27	2	1
Ramiro Pena	B	30	SS	295	28	67	12	1	3	22	1	2
Nick Noonan	L	27	SS	391	35	79	15	1	3	28	3	2
Trevor Brown	R	24	C	383	35	80	16	1	2	29	3	3
Grant Green	R	28	LF	468	50	116	24	4	6	45	3	4
Kevin Frandsen	R	34	2B	366	32	86	13	1	3	28	2	2
Austin Slater	R	23	2B	509	44	112	21	3	3	38	5	5
Hunter Cole	R	23	RF	514	51	113	26	6	7	49	5	5
Rando Moreno	B	24	SS	438	40	91	14	2	1	29	13	10
Darren Ford	R	30	CF	360	37	75	10	2	6	29	21	11
Jeff Kobernus	R	28	2B	331	33	72	11	1	2	21	18	6
Marco Scutaro	R	40	2B	132	14	29	5	1	1	9	1	1
Carlos Moncrief	L	27	RF	474	48	92	16	3	10	43	8	4
Skyler Stromsmoe	B	32	2B	234	23	44	10	1	0	14	4	4
Engel Beltre	L	26	CF	365	36	85	11	3	4	29	8	7
Brett Jackson	L	27	RF	291	28	49	9	3	5	23	7	4
Junior Arias	R	24	CF	382	40	81	11	3	8	34	25	12
Ryder Jones	L	22	3B	505	47	106	25	2	7	44	4	2
Juan Ciriaco	R	32	2B	209	19	45	9	1	2	16	8	1
Ricky Oropesa	L	26	1B	483	44	92	17	1	11	45	1	1
Angel Villalona	R	25	1B	422	37	78	16	1	8	37	0	0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Buster Posey	606	8.9%	10.4%	.157	.315	.305	.368	.462	.352
Matt Duffy	573	5.9%	18.3%	.128	.322	.275	.322	.403	.320
Brandon Crawford	545	7.9%	20.6%	.159	.293	.249	.314	.408	.308
Joe Panik	568	7.0%	11.1%	.106	.302	.277	.331	.383	.314
Brandon Belt	485	9.7%	25.6%	.185	.333	.265	.340	.450	.344
Denard Span	499	7.2%	10.0%	.107	.304	.280	.333	.387	.324
Hunter Pence	485	7.2%	18.6%	.165	.300	.265	.320	.430	.329
Andrew Susac	311	9.3%	30.2%	.123	.315	.224	.305	.347	.291
Jarrett Parker	515	9.1%	39.4%	.154	.342	.214	.294	.368	.300
Ehire Adrianza	331	7.9%	20.5%	.086	.281	.224	.295	.310	.275
Gregor Blanco	422	9.5%	17.8%	.102	.315	.261	.334	.363	.312
Marlon Byrd	527	4.9%	27.7%	.163	.318	.250	.292	.413	.301
Ali Castillo	413	5.3%	16.0%	.068	.269	.230	.274	.298	.267
Gorkys Hernandez	395	7.1%	26.1%	.084	.304	.226	.286	.310	.276
Kyle Blanks	185	7.6%	27.6%	.164	.318	.248	.319	.412	.320
Angel Pagan	473	6.1%	14.8%	.091	.306	.267	.311	.358	.301
Christian Arroyo	459	3.9%	20.5%	.106	.298	.246	.279	.352	.279
Kelby Tomlinson	518	6.6%	21.2%	.068	.304	.239	.294	.307	.281
Hak-Ju Lee	325	8.0%	28.3%	.082	.303	.216	.283	.298	.269
Mac Williamson	414	6.8%	26.8%	.128	.305	.233	.302	.361	.293
Ryan Lollis	460	6.1%	14.6%	.088	.282	.246	.296	.334	.280
Brandon Hicks	295	8.5%	36.6%	.136	.285	.189	.265	.325	.262
Ramiro Pena	295	5.8%	14.9%	.086	.284	.249	.293	.335	.271
Nick Noonan	391	5.4%	27.1%	.071	.296	.218	.262	.289	.246
Trevor Brown	383	5.2%	18.3%	.068	.273	.225	.270	.293	.254
Grant Green	468	3.8%	19.9%	.113	.318	.263	.294	.376	.293
Kevin Frandsen	366	3.6%	8.7%	.071	.272	.254	.300	.325	.277
Austin Slater	509	3.7%	23.2%	.074	.299	.232	.264	.306	.256
Hunter Cole	514	5.8%	25.3%	.125	.311	.238	.287	.363	.289
Rando Moreno	438	5.0%	17.4%	.053	.278	.228	.271	.281	.252
Darren Ford	360	6.4%	23.1%	.096	.283	.226	.279	.322	.289
Jeff Kobernus	331	6.0%	20.5%	.062	.297	.238	.287	.300	.277
Marco Scutaro	132	5.3%	10.6%	.082	.262	.240	.285	.322	.268
Carlos Moncrief	474	8.2%	28.5%	.122	.288	.215	.282	.337	.276
Skyler Stromsmoe	234	9.0%	19.2%	.058	.272	.214	.297	.272	.269
Engel Beltre	365	3.0%	20.5%	.084	.305	.248	.276	.332	.272
Brett Jackson	291	8.9%	39.2%	.115	.308	.188	.266	.303	.262
Junior Arias	382	3.9%	34.3%	.113	.324	.223	.257	.336	.284
Ryder Jones	505	3.4%	24.4%	.105	.280	.221	.252	.326	.253
Juan Ciriaco	209	3.8%	19.1%	.087	.276	.228	.261	.315	.260
Ricky Oropesa	483	6.4%	34.8%	.117	.299	.206	.259	.323	.256
Angel Villalona	422	5.0%	31.8%	.107	.277	.199	.249	.306	.244

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Buster Posey	606	6.6	133	2	6.3	Spud Davis
Matt Duffy	573	5.0	104	7	3.7	Buddy Bell
Brandon Crawford	545	4.6	103	7	3.5	Leo Cardenas
Joe Panik	568	4.7	102	1	2.7	Edgardo Alfonzo
Brandon Belt	485	5.7	122	4	2.5	Leon Durham
Denard Span	499	5.0	103	-2	2.4	Johnny Damon
Hunter Pence	485	5.1	110	0	1.9	Ellis Burks
Andrew Susac	311	3.7	84	-1	1.3	David Ross
Jarrett Parker	515	3.7	86	6	1.1	Warren Newson
Ehire Adrianza	331	3.2	72	3	0.9	Doug Baker
Gregor Blanco	422	4.5	97	-7	0.9	Dave Martinez
Marlon Byrd	527	4.3	97	0	0.9	George Foster
Ali Castillo	413	2.8	62	5	0.6	Joey Aragon
Gorkys Hernandez	395	3.2	69	2	0.5	Damon Mashore
Kyle Blanks	185	4.8	105	0	0.5	Ryan Shealy
Angel Pagan	473	4.1	89	-8	0.4	Jim Piersall
Christian Arroyo	459	3.5	77	-4	0.4	Andres Thomas
Kelby Tomlinson	518	3.3	71	0	0.4	Herman Iribarren
Hak-Ju Lee	325	3.1	65	-1	0.3	Demetrish Jenkins
Mac Williamson	414	3.9	87	-1	0.3	Jeff Hermann
Ryan Lollis	460	3.5	78	4	0.3	Mike Lockwood
Brandon Hicks	295	2.9	66	2	0.2	Trace Coquillette
Ramiro Pena	295	3.4	77	-3	0.2	Danny Thompson
Nick Noonan	391	2.6	56	4	0.2	John Hotchkiss
Trevor Brown	383	2.7	60	-2	0.0	Matt Morgan
Grant Green	468	3.9	88	-3	0.0	Andrew Locke
Kevin Frandsen	366	3.5	77	-6	-0.2	Jerry Adair
Austin Slater	509	2.7	61	3	-0.2	Adolfo Gonzalez
Hunter Cole	514	3.6	83	-3	-0.3	Keith Williams
Rando Moreno	438	2.5	57	0	-0.3	Jhonny Carvajal
Darren Ford	360	3.1	70	-5	-0.3	Kenny Kelly
Jeff Kobernus	331	3.3	67	-5	-0.4	Jhonny Perez
Marco Scutaro	132	3.2	72	-4	-0.4	Rene Gonzales
Carlos Moncrief	474	3.3	75	-1	-0.4	Todd Soares
Skyler Stromsmoe	234	2.6	63	-4	-0.5	Dave Matranga
Engel Beltre	365	3.1	71	-5	-0.6	Raul Tovar
Brett Jackson	291	2.6	61	-1	-0.8	Mickey Hall
Junior Arias	382	3.0	66	-8	-0.9	Tony Barron
Ryder Jones	505	2.9	62	-4	-0.9	Ricky Bell
Juan Ciriaco	209	3.2	62	-9	-1.0	Casey Smith
Ricky Oropesa	483	2.8	64	-2	-1.7	Tate Seefried
Angel Villalona	422	2.6	56	-3	-2.0	John Lindsey

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Madison Bumgarner	L	26	31	31	210.0	216	43	18	174	67	63
Johnny Cueto	R	30	30	30	207.0	178	50	14	175	71	66
Jeff Samardzija	R	31	29	29	196.0	180	44	16	179	77	72
Jake Peavy	R	35	24	24	140.3	112	35	15	132	61	57
Clayton Blackburn	R	23	23	21	127.7	99	35	12	127	58	54
Chris Heston	R	28	26	26	150.7	113	54	14	147	72	67
Hunter Strickland	R	27	59	0	55.7	60	12	4	45	17	16
Sergio Romo	R	33	63	0	54.3	59	11	5	46	18	17
Santiago Casilla	R	35	51	0	50.3	42	17	3	42	17	16
Tim Lincecum	R	32	22	20	118.3	104	49	12	113	58	54
George Kontos	R	31	64	0	71.7	58	18	7	66	29	27
Matt Cain	R	31	18	18	101.7	83	31	14	99	51	48
Josh Osich	L	27	56	0	57.7	54	23	5	52	24	22
Mike Broadway	R	29	39	0	42.3	44	12	4	37	16	15
Tim Hudson	R	40	22	21	123.0	68	31	12	133	63	59
Chase Johnson	R	24	23	22	115.0	89	53	10	114	59	55
Javier Lopez	L	38	62	0	31.3	23	13	2	27	13	12
Ray Black	R	26	28	3	28.7	39	21	3	21	13	12
Derek Law	R	25	29	0	27.7	28	15	2	24	12	11
Ty Blach	L	25	24	24	140.7	85	37	15	152	74	69
Vin Mazzaro	R	29	43	0	63.0	47	24	4	60	27	25
Albert Suarez	R	26	18	18	97.3	63	30	12	102	51	48
Adalberto Mejia	L	23	18	15	77.3	54	30	8	79	41	38
Cory Gearrin	R	30	34	0	36.7	34	14	3	33	16	15
Steven Okert	L	24	56	0	66.3	70	28	7	59	30	28
Edwin Quirarte	R	29	39	4	67.3	44	25	5	69	33	31
Jacob Smith	R	26	47	1	66.3	70	32	7	59	31	29
Jeremy Affeldt	L	37	48	0	39.0	28	13	3	38	18	17
Brett Bochy	R	28	45	0	59.3	46	24	5	57	28	26
Joan Gregorio	R	24	30	12	78.3	68	42	9	76	43	40
Tyler Beede	R	23	22	22	116.0	73	51	11	122	64	60
Clay Rapada	L	35	37	0	37.3	25	14	3	38	19	18
Alfredo Aceves	R	33	17	6	49.0	34	22	6	51	28	26
Kyle Crick	R	23	32	16	71.7	81	71	6	61	41	38
Chris Stratton	R	25	24	23	126.0	93	61	14	129	71	66
Ian Gardeck	R	25	49	0	64.3	57	40	5	60	33	31
Ricky Romero	L	31	10	10	42.0	24	33	5	46	30	28
Wilson Santos	R	24	40	0	53.0	34	34	9	58	37	35

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Madison Bumgarner	210.0	847	25.5%	5.1%	.277	2.70	2.88	75	78
Johnny Cueto	207.0	846	21.0%	5.9%	.271	2.87	3.16	80	86
Jeff Samardzija	196.0	811	22.2%	5.4%	.290	3.31	3.18	92	87
Jake Peavy	140.3	588	19.1%	6.0%	.277	3.66	3.77	102	103
Clayton Blackburn	127.7	545	18.2%	6.4%	.293	3.81	3.77	106	103
Chris Heston	150.7	653	17.3%	8.3%	.287	4.00	4.09	111	111
Hunter Strickland	55.7	224	26.8%	5.4%	.281	2.59	2.64	72	72
Sergio Romo	54.3	220	26.8%	5.0%	.287	2.82	2.79	78	76
Santiago Casilla	50.3	210	20.0%	8.1%	.269	2.86	3.28	79	89
Tim Lincecum	118.3	517	20.1%	9.5%	.289	4.11	3.97	114	108
George Kontos	71.7	299	19.4%	6.0%	.274	3.39	3.48	94	95
Matt Cain	101.7	435	19.1%	7.1%	.280	4.25	4.32	118	118
Josh Osich	57.7	248	21.8%	9.3%	.286	3.43	3.67	95	100
Mike Broadway	42.3	176	25.0%	6.8%	.290	3.19	3.23	89	88
Tim Hudson	123.0	533	12.8%	5.8%	.291	4.32	4.20	120	114
Chase Johnson	115.0	512	17.4%	10.4%	.295	4.30	4.28	120	117
Javier Lopez	31.3	134	17.2%	9.7%	.263	3.45	3.48	96	95
Ray Black	28.7	128	30.4%	16.4%	.285	3.77	4.21	105	114
Derek Law	27.7	122	22.9%	12.3%	.289	3.58	3.81	99	104
Ty Blach	140.7	611	13.9%	6.1%	.293	4.41	4.26	123	116
Vin Mazzaro	63.0	273	17.2%	8.8%	.287	3.57	3.69	99	100
Albert Suarez	97.3	424	14.9%	7.1%	.287	4.44	4.52	123	123
Adalberto Mejia	77.3	341	15.8%	8.8%	.291	4.42	4.47	123	122
Cory Gearrin	36.7	157	21.6%	8.9%	.291	3.68	3.68	102	100
Steven Okert	66.3	286	24.5%	9.8%	.292	3.80	3.78	106	103
Edwin Quirarte	67.3	296	14.9%	8.4%	.294	4.14	4.07	115	111
Jacob Smith	66.3	290	24.1%	11.0%	.294	3.93	4.01	109	109
Jeremy Affeldt	39.0	168	16.7%	7.7%	.289	3.92	3.80	109	103
Brett Bochy	59.3	259	17.8%	9.3%	.289	3.94	4.07	109	111
Joan Gregorio	78.3	353	19.3%	11.9%	.291	4.60	4.61	128	125
Tyler Beede	116.0	521	14.0%	9.8%	.293	4.66	4.61	130	125
Clay Rapada	37.3	164	15.3%	8.5%	.292	4.34	4.07	121	111
Alfredo Aceves	49.0	220	15.5%	10.0%	.288	4.78	4.77	133	130
Kyle Crick	71.7	347	23.3%	20.5%	.297	4.77	5.09	133	138
Chris Stratton	126.0	568	16.4%	10.7%	.293	4.71	4.75	131	129
Ian Gardeck	64.3	293	19.5%	13.7%	.294	4.34	4.41	121	120
Ricky Romero	42.0	205	11.7%	16.1%	.293	6.00	6.14	167	167
Wilson Santos	53.0	251	13.5%	13.5%	.288	5.94	6.18	165	168

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Madison Bumgarner	210.0	9.26	1.84	0.77	131	4.8	Frank Viola
Johnny Cueto	207.0	7.74	2.17	0.61	123	4.1	Tim Hudson
Jeff Samardzija	196.0	8.27	2.02	0.73	107	3.0	Jeff Weaver
Jake Peavy	140.3	7.18	2.25	0.96	96	1.4	Bill Gullickson
Clayton Blackburn	127.7	6.98	2.47	0.85	93	1.0	Kelly Downs
Chris Heston	150.7	6.75	3.22	0.84	88	0.9	Rick Foley
Hunter Strickland	55.7	9.69	1.94	0.65	136	0.8	Rusty Meacham
Sergio Romo	54.3	9.78	1.82	0.83	125	0.6	Jeff Reardon
Santiago Casilla	50.3	7.51	3.04	0.54	123	0.5	Jim Corsi
Tim Lincecum	118.3	7.91	3.73	0.91	86	0.5	Russ Ortiz
George Kontos	71.7	7.28	2.26	0.88	104	0.3	John Frascatore
Matt Cain	101.7	7.35	2.74	1.24	83	0.3	Jeff Juden
Josh Osich	57.7	8.42	3.59	0.78	103	0.2	Tim Hamulack
Mike Broadway	42.3	9.36	2.55	0.85	111	0.2	Aaron Rakers
Tim Hudson	123.0	4.98	2.27	0.88	82	0.2	Mike Morgan
Chase Johnson	115.0	6.97	4.15	0.78	82	0.2	Jeff Bumgarner
Javier Lopez	31.3	6.61	3.74	0.58	102	0.1	Darold Knowles
Ray Black	28.7	12.23	6.59	0.94	94	0.1	Marcus Moore
Derek Law	27.7	9.10	4.87	0.65	99	0.1	Jeff Smith
Ty Blach	140.7	5.44	2.37	0.96	80	0.1	Andy Van Hekken
Vin Mazzaro	63.0	6.71	3.43	0.57	99	0.1	Todd Williams
Albert Suarez	97.3	5.83	2.77	1.11	79	0.0	Brandon Emanuel
Adalberto Mejia	77.3	6.29	3.49	0.93	80	0.0	Stevenson Agosto
Cory Gearrin	36.7	8.34	3.43	0.74	96	0.0	Jason Bullard
Steven Okert	66.3	9.50	3.80	0.95	93	-0.1	Mark Lukasiewicz
Edwin Quirarte	67.3	5.88	3.34	0.67	85	-0.1	Marty McLeary
Jacob Smith	66.3	9.50	4.34	0.95	90	-0.1	Todd Bussa
Jeremy Affeldt	39.0	6.46	3.00	0.69	90	-0.2	Dave Righetti
Brett Bochy	59.3	6.98	3.64	0.76	89	-0.2	Rick Greene
Joan Gregorio	78.3	7.82	4.83	1.03	77	-0.3	Paul Schappert
Tyler Beede	116.0	5.66	3.96	0.85	76	-0.3	Mark Woodyard
Clay Rapada	37.3	6.03	3.38	0.72	81	-0.3	Dave Righetti
Alfredo Aceves	49.0	6.24	4.04	1.10	74	-0.4	Elmer Riddle
Kyle Crick	71.7	10.17	8.91	0.75	74	-0.4	Jose Diaz
Chris Stratton	126.0	6.64	4.36	1.00	75	-0.5	Dana Allison
Ian Gardeck	64.3	7.98	5.60	0.70	81	-0.5	Dusty Hughes
Ricky Romero	42.0	5.14	7.07	1.07	59	-0.9	Dan Smith
Wilson Santos	53.0	5.77	5.77	1.53	59	-1.7	Mark Pedersen

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.