2016 ZiPS Projections – San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
When preparing the depth-chart graphics such as one finds below, it’s not always possible to fully represent the manner in which every player is likely to be deployed over the course of a season. In case of the Giants, for example, Buster Posey (606 PA, 6.3 zWAR) is a candidate to receive a number of starts at first base. Yet it’s also probably not inaccurate to characterize Brandon Belt (485 PA, 2.5 zWAR) as the team’s starting first baseman. To include Posey’s name at first wouldn’t have been wrong, at all. But it would have also required seconds — or perhaps even an entire minute — of more work. That’s a minute which the author could have utilized to the end of Googling his name on the internet and further crushing himself under the weight of his own vanity.

Posey isn’t merely the best player on the Giants, but also nearly the whole league. Angel Pagan (473 PA, 0.4 zWAR) definitely isn’t the worst player in the league, but he does appear — per Dan Szymborski’s computer, at least — he does appear to represent the club’s worst projected starter. If anyone cares, Jarrett Parker (515 PA, 1.1 zWAR) is also an outfielder and, despite a forecasted strikeout rate of 39.4%, receives a more encouraging prognosis than Pagan.

Pitchers
A 40-year-old version of Tim Hudson won’t pitch for San Francisco this year. After throwing 123.2 innings of replacement-level ball in 2015, the right-hander retired following the season. Despite his departure, it appears as though Hudson nonetheless remains with the club in spirit: Johnny Cueto’s (207.0 IP, 4.1 zWAR) top comp from the past, it seems, is the 30-year-old version of Hudson. Together, Cueto and Madison Bumgarner (210.0 IP, 4.8 zWAR) are projected to produce roughly nine wins in roughly 400 innings. A strong combination, that.

As for the bullpen, it’s in a position — like if the Giants remain in contention at the deadline, for example — to benefit from an upgrade or two. Hunter Strickland (55.2 IP, 0.8 zWAR) receives the top forecast of any Giants pitcher on a per-inning basis — and, assuming a bigger load of innings, might begin to resemble a more classic relief-ace type. As currently constructed, however, the club’s top-five relievers receive one of the lowest collective WAR figures among the teams projected here thus far.

Bench/Prospects
While absent from the depth-chart graphic below, outfielder Gregor Blanco (422 PA, 0.9 zWAR) has also averaged 445 plate appearances annually during his four seasons in San Francisco. He’s likely to play a not inconsequential role with the club. Ehire Adrianza (331 PA, 0.9 zWAR) receive the top projection among the club’s non-starting infielders. In terms of rookie-eligible hitters, few appear ready for the majors after the aforementioned Parker. The data from Szymborski’s computer suggests not only that Clayton Blackburn (127.2 IP, 1.0 zWAR) is the club’s top rookie-eligible pitcher, but also the top starter not included in the depth chart.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Los Gigantes, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.