2016 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Tampa Bay center fielder Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t merely recorded more wins than every other 31st-round selection from the 2010 draft, but he appears also to have recorded more wins than all but six players — including (and, it would seem, limited to) Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Matt Harvey, Manny Machado, Chris Sale, and Andrelton Simmons — from that same draft class. What else he’s done is to distinguish himself as the prohibitive star of your 2016 Rays. Taken out of Parkland College in Champaign, Illinois, Kiermaier has now produced a 9.5 WAR in fewer than two full seasons’ worth of plate appearances. His projection for the 2016 campaign (521 PA, 4.2 zWAR) calls for roughly a repeat of the same.

After Kiermaier, the 2016 iteration of the club appears to be an exercise in uninspiring competence. Desmond Jennings is roughly average. Logan Forsythe and Brad Miller are roughly average. Whoever’s platooning in right field is likely to provide a roughly average platoon. The club’s weaknesses are at designated hitter and first base. Neither Logan Morrison (445 PA, 0.0 zWAR) nor James Loney (498 PA, 0.0 zWAR) appear well-equipped to benefit the team at either position.

Pitchers
Whatever the club’s difficulties in 2015, Tampa Bay’s rotation was about as successful as one could reasonably expect. Despite the total absence of Alex Cobb and the better version of Matt Moore, Rays starters produced the 10th- or sixth-best collective WAR in the majors last year, according to the FIP and runs-based version of that metric, respectively. While not expected to match last year’s numbers, right-hander Chris Archer (195.1 IP, 4.2 zWAR) nevertheless profiles as a legitimate No. 1 starter. The end of the rotation, meanwhile, is less strong. The departure of Nate Karns, for example, renders the team more reliant on Moore (109.0 IP, 0.6 zWAR) whose stuff has been diminished by injury.

Shall we mention the relievers? No one is stopping us. While the acquisition of Corey Dickerson in exchange for Jake McGee seems to represent a net-gain for the Rays overall, it has also thinned out the back end of the bullpen. ZiPS expects Brad Boxberger (69.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) to rebound from a tough season, but doesn’t project him to exhibit the sort of per-inning dominance typical of a proper relief ace. Indeed, there’s even an argument that Xavier Cedeno (44.2 IP, 0.4 zWAR) is his equal on a rate basis: both are expected to produce park-adjusted ERAs roughly 15% better than league average.

Bench/Prospects
There are a number of field players omitted from the depth-chart graphic below who will nevertheless receive considerable playing time in 2016. Infielder Nick Franklin (465 PA, 0.9 zWAR) once again finds himself competing with Brad Miller for playing time — except now in Florida and not Washington. Tim Beckham (303 PA, 0.0 zWAR) and Brandon Guyer (352 PA, 1.0 zWAR) recorded over 600 plate appearance between them last year and figure to play a not insignifcant role in this year’s version of the team. Among rookie-eligible players, utility sort Taylor Motter (475 PA, 1.1 zWAR) and infielder Daniel Robertson (502 PA, 1.1 zWAR) receive the top projections. The organization features a couple of pitchers who appear capable of throwing competent innings in the majors. Right-hander Matt Andriese (128.1 IP, 1.7 zWAR) profiles as a useful swingman, while Jacob Faria (126.1IP, 1.0 zWAR) and Blake Snell (121.0 IP, 1.1 zWAR) are both promising prospects.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Tampa Bay-ers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.