KATOH Projects: Colorado Rockies Prospects

Previous editions: Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati  / Cleveland.

Earlier this week, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Colorado Rockies. In this companion piece, I look at that same Colorado farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

1. Trevor Story, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 7.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Story’s prospect trajectory resembles a bathtub curve — which is to say it’s gone from high to low and back to high again. Drafted 45th overall back in 2011, he got off to a strong start in the low minors, but hit a wall as soon as he reached High-A. Story got back on track in 2015 when he hit .279/.350/.514 between Double-A and Triple-A with 20 homers and 22 steals. Story was one of the top offensive performers in the high minors last year, which is mighty impressive for a shortstop. His 25% strikeout rate is cause for concern, but is largely outweighed by everything else he does well.

2. Dom Nunez, C (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 6.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 55 FV

Nunez had a nice 2014 campaign in Rookie Ball, but really broke out last year in his first crack at full-season ball. Nunez slashed .282/.373/.448 in his age-20 season, which is unequivocally excellent for a catcher. Nunez’s near-equal strikeout and walk rates suggest an excellent command of the strike zone, while his 13 homers speak to his budding power. Also of note: although he got off to a slow start, Nunez slashed .314/.419/.559 from June 25th on, so his trajectory is very much on the upswing.

3. Forrest Wall, 2B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 4.9 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Wall spent most of last season at the Low-A level, where he hit a solid .280/.355/.438 with 23 steals. Those aren’t knock-your-socks off numbers, but they’re mighty encouraging for a middle infielder who played all of last season as a 19-year-old. Wall’s a bit risky due to his distance from the majors and non-elite contact skills, but his combination of speed, defense and offensive polish make him one of the most promising prospects in baseball.

4. Cristhian Adames, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 4.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

Adames hit a strong .311/.362/.438 in Triple-A last year on the strength of a 11% strikeout rate. Adames will never be known for his power or speed, but had enough skill in each category to post double digit homers and steals last year. Adames isn’t a flashy high-upside prospect, but there are very few holes in his game. Players with his slap-hitting middle-infielder profile succeed in the big leagues pretty often, especially once they’ve mastered the Triple-A level.

5. Jon Gray, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.5 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 60 FV

Before he debuted with the Rockies last August, Gray turned in a solid season in Triple-A. The 2013 third-overall pick struck out 22% of batters faced and a 3.88 FIP in 2015. He performed similarly at the Double-A level in 2014. Gray’s 6-foot-4 frame along with his success in the high minors makes him one of the best-projected pitching prospects in baseball.

In generating Gray’s comps, I considered only pitchers who cracked Baseball America’s top-100 list either before or after the season in question. This was intended to act as a proxy for “stuff.”

6. David Dahl, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 3.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 60+ FV

Dahl fared very well at the Low-A level in 2014, but struggled in a late-season cameo at the High-A level. Nonetheless, the Rockies pushed him to Double-A to open the 2016. Dahl predictably had some trouble adjusting to the tougher competition. He hit .278/.304/.417, while posting strikeout and walk rates of 24% and 4%, respectively. Dahl has an impressive combination of power and speed, which allowed him to hold his own as a 21-year-old at Double-A, but his approach could clearly use some work. History shows that toolsy outfielders with poor plate-discipline numbers in Double-A don’t pan out particularly often. To wit:

7. Antonio Senzatela, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.9 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Senzatela enjoyed a breakout campaign at the High-A level last year. The Venezuelan hurler struck out 23% of batters faced last year, up from 15% in 2014, and walked just 5%. Senzatela may not have a track record of success, but his age-20 season in High-A suggests he could be an excellent pitcher down the road.

8. Ryan McMahon, 3B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.6 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 60 FV

McMahon was one of the best hitters in A-Ball each of the last two years. He hit .282/.358/.502 in Low-A in 2014 and .300/.372/.520 in High-A last year. The downside is that he’s done so with strikeout rates north of 25%. Having a high strikeout rate isn’t the end of the world, per se, but hitters who strike out that much in the low minors tend to struggle against more advanced pitching. McMahon hasn’t failed yet, but the odds aren’t great that he’ll continue to dominate in the upper levels. You can find some examples below:

9. Tom Murphy, C (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50 FV

Murphy has 20-plus home run power, which is rare for a catcher, but his 29% strikeout rate in the minors last year is a major cause for concern. Hitters like Murphy don’t usually make enough contact to succeed in the big leagues — high strikeouts and merely good power are the hallmarks of a Quad-A player. Though, given the low bar for catcher offense, Murphy won’t need to hit all that much to make it work.

10. Jesus Tinoco, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40+ FV

Tinoco pitched exceptionally well in Low-A last year with both the Rockies and Blue Jays organizations. Both his strikeout and walk rates were better than average, which resulted in a 2.75 FIP. His height (6-foot-4) is also a point in his favor. As a 20-year-old who’s yet to pitch above Low-A, Tinoco’s obviously a long way off from the big leagues, but the early signs point to a bright future.

11. Jordan Patterson, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Patterson broke out in a pretty big way last season by slashing .297/.364/.543 between High-A and Double-A with 18 steals. For the third year in a row, he posted double-digit homers and steals. On the downside, he recorded unsatisfactory strikeout and walk rates of 24% and 5%, respectively. Patterson has a lot going for him, but his propensity to strike out makes it unclear how he’ll fare against better pitching.

12. Ryan Castellani, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Despite his ugly 4.45 ERA, Castellani pitched very well as a 19-yeas-old in Low-A. His strikeout numbers were a tad underwhelming, but he did a fine job of limiting his walks and keeping the ball in the ballpark. His 6-foot-4 frame is also a point in his favor.

13. Raimel Tapia, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 55 FV

After a breakout campaign in 2014, Tapia continued to progress by hitting an encouraging .305/.333/.467 in High-A last year with 26 steals. Although he’s performed pretty well at each level, Tapia’s ascent through the minors has been a gradual one. As a result, he hasn’t been particularly young for his levels for a Dominican signee. That’s KATOH’s biggest quibble here, but Tapia’s overall offensive profile is encouraging.

14. Tyler Nevin, 3B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.2 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Nevin had a solid pro debut in Rookie Ball last year by hitting .265/.368/.386 as a high school draftee. His strikeout rate and power numbers were both more good than great, but his 6-foot-4 frame suggests there might be more to come in the latter category. As an 18-year-old Rookie Baller, Nevin’s obviously very far away, but his bat is interesting.

*****

When KATOH looks at Jeff Hoffman, it sees a 23-year-old who pitched pretty well between High-A and Double-A last season. However, it’s naive to the fact that Hoffman missed upwards of a year with Tommy John Surgery. It also doesn’t know that his fastball and curveball are both nearly as good as they come. Until he further distances himself from his surgery, I’d advise against taking Hoffman’s projections too seriously. German Marquez posted an encouraging 24% strikeout rate as a 19-year-old starter in Low-A in 2014, but his strikeout numbers regressed a bit in 2015. I went into a bit more detail on Marquez here when the Rockies acquired him from the Rays.

Pat Valaika struggled last season, but is a year removed from a .299/.345/.461 in A-Ball. He possesses a compelling combination of power and speed for a shortstop. Roberto Ramos lacks a track record or defensive versatility, but punished Low-A pitching last season in a small sample. In 575 plate appearances since the start of 2014, Yonathan Daza has hit .336/.373/.458 in the low minors. Wes Rogers, the Rockies 2014 fourth round pick, stole 53 bases and held his own at the plate in A-Ball last year. At 6-foot-4, it isn’t inconceivable that he might eventually add some power. Drew Weeks is similar to Rogers, only with more power and less speed. Brian Mundell, last year’s seventh-round pick, had a solid pro debut in the Northwest League.

*****

Remaining 45 or Higher Players

Carlos Estevez, RHP (Carlos Estevez)

KATOH Projection: 0.9 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 

Estevez was pretty dominant last year between High-A and Double-A. He struck out 30% of batters faced and posted a 2.59 FIP. His pre-2015 track record, however, left a lot to be desired. KATOH is never particularly fond of relief prospects, especially when they aren’t particularly young for their level, but KATOH doesn’t know that Estevez has one of the fastest fastballs in the minors. His performance finally started to line up with his stuff in 2015.

The remaining three pitchers each have their merits, but also have major red flags in their statistical profiles. Alex Balog is already 23, has yet to play above A-Ball and has posted mediocre strikeout rates. Although he had some success in Colarado, Jairo Diaz was terrible as a reliever in Triple-A last year. Sam Moll ended 2015 on a high note, but prior to that, he was just alright as a 23-year-old, 5-foot-10 reliever in A-Ball.