FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/9/16

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! I’m here, and Jeff will be along in a minute.

GG: Who does better in Japan? Jason Pridie or Jonny Gomes?

Paul Swydan: Jonny Gomes? He just seems to have a way about him.

Jeff Zimmerman: Ghomes

Dude99: If you had a 40 man roster of 0.0 WAR players and you played a simulated season, what would their avg record be? this would really help define WAR for us non math dudes.

Paul Swydan: I believe it is in the 40s? Jeff? We get this question all the time and I can never remember the exact number because I’m a moron.

Jeff Zimmerman: 42 or 48 Wins right?

Paul Swydan: One of those.

Nate: If the Royals didn’t win the World Series last year, would we still see an over-reliance on bullpens?

Paul Swydan: I think so, yes. We’ve been trending that way for awhile.

Jeff Zimmerman: The strong bullpen allows bad starting staff to look OK

Devin: With all the Dodgers depth, how do you see it impacting young prospects trying to break into the major leagues?

Paul Swydan: Well, I think Seager is going to get plenty of run. I think Pederson is the real place we’ll see their faith tested. The Dodgers have a lot of outfield options, so it will be interesting to see how much run Pederson will get if he struggles.

Jeff Zimmerman: It could, I am just surprised the Dodgers haven’t tried to bundle up some and get some better pieces.

Paul Swydan: As far as their pitching prospects go – pitchers always get hurt. That’s why you build up that depth.

Sneaky Good: Do you think the Rays have improved their chances of making the playoffs this year with their offseason moves?

Paul Swydan: I do. I still don’t they’re favorites or anything, but they’re better than they were.

Jeff Zimmerman: Not enough. They need to add some difference makers. I think Dickerson may struggle with the plantar faciitis (sp?)

Joshua Michael Lacey: What are your thoughts on Adam Eaton this year. Is he more like his first or second half from last year?

Paul Swydan: He’s more like the second half, but he’s not THAT good.

Jeff Zimmerman: Full season (or 2014). He is no .400 BABIP hitter. Really no one is.

Nate: Brandon Belt had a higher wRC+, wOBA, more DRS, and a higher WAR than Hosmer last year.

Is it really a question which guy teams should want?

Paul Swydan: And yet, more people seem to want Hosmer. Curious, that.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would go with the projection which may lean Hosmer … looking now.

Nate: On a scale of 1 to putting a fork in an electric outlet, how bad will Tyler “Oh Look, another fly ball” Clippard be in Arizona?

Jeff Zimmerman: Looks like Belt on projections also.

Paul Swydan: It doesn’t seem like an ideal fit, but Clippard has managed to keep his home run rate down for a long time. He probably deserves the benefit of the doubt for now.

Jeff Zimmerman: 4. The D-Backs have a good OF and that helps turn the non-HR fly balls into outs

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Cleveland adds another CF and 3B (Uribe?) before spring training ends, right? Or is Joey Butler going to get a lot more playing time than anyone expects (at least until Brantley comes back)?

Jeff Zimmerman: BTW: FSWA awrds being announced right now with a few RotoGraphs authors up for some.

Paul Swydan: I would feel more confident about them adding a Fowler if their first round pick was protected. I have sort of given up trying to predict teams’ moves this offseason. Just tell me when they sign.

Jeff Zimmerman: I swear I have no idea what teams from Ohio will do (the Reds are a little better this year).

iron wolf: Hello: a couple of weeks ago I asked you what I should do with the #1 pick in the prospect draft of an AL-only league. Since the team needs a complete overhaul, I decided to flip that pick for Barreto and the #4 pick. I then traded Gardner for Moncada. Having improved the prospect roster, I’m wondering what to do with the #4 pick. Hold or shop it aggressively? Do you like A.J. Reed as much as I do? The chatter in the league suggests that Bregman and Benintendi are probably going to be 2 of the top 3 picks. Thanks!

Paul Swydan: Certainly, Reed would be a good pick there. However, if you can flip the number four pick for a young player who is already productive in the majors, you should consider that. Easier said than done, I realize.

Paul Swydan: Also think about Max Kepler, if he’s on the board.

Jeff Zimmerman: or Devers

The Gyorko Store Called: Excluding the Royals (because magic), which team that Fangraphs currently projects to win under 80 games do you think has the best chance to win 90 games? (To save time, the list is AZ, MIN, BAL, OAK, COL, SD, CIN, MIL, ATL, PHI)

Paul Swydan: I think Minnesota. They have a very high beta. If Sano and Buxton and Park are all the studs they can be, that might be a dangerous team. Especially if they also trade for some bullpen help at some point.

Jeff Zimmerman: Oakland, Minnesota, Arizona and Baltimore are trying to win. May go with AZ.

zach: Thinking ahead to the 2017 season, which OF would you rather keep: Sano or Schwarber?

Paul Swydan: Sano

Jeff Zimmerman: Just OF, Sano.

The Gyorko Store Called: I posted a bunch of good questions last week or two weeks ago that I have now forgot. Can you go back and answer them now? I think one was about relievers.

Paul Swydan: Sorry, no soup for you!

Jake: If you were drafting this weekend, or soon, how much would you dock Aroldis Chapman given uncertainty over a possible suspension? 12 team mixed. I feel like there’s a value possibility there but it comes with a fair amount of risk. Thoughts?

Jeff Zimmerman: No, sorry

Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote about this a week or so ago …. finding link…

Paul Swydan: Personally, I wouldn’t touch Chapman until I know the suspension. But I don’t think I’ve ever drafted him to begin with, because I don’t like to pay a lot for relievers.

Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/better-playing-times-estimates/

Do Not Visit Thunder Bay Because: The auction is winding down, I need a closer, and I can beat any bid by $1. Which lower end AL closer do I take among Doolittle, Storen, or Cishek?

Jeff Zimmerman: Around 10 days, Reyes will get the hammer though

Paul Swydan: Probably Doolittle has the most upside.

Jeff Zimmerman: Any of them in AL-only, but I guess Doolittle

a global apocalypise is imminent: Best Disney World Ride?

Jeff Zimmerman: Never been there

Paul Swydan: If you’re going old school, hard to top Space Mountain. New school, definitely the one in Animal Kingdom where the rollercoaster goes all the way to the top, and then drops you backwards. That one is sick.

The End is Nigh: Would a duck make a good pet?

Paul Swydan: Sure, just don’t feed it too much whiskey.

Jeff Zimmerman: For a day or two until you eat it.

rick hahn: Pretty good deal for Latos, huh? Now – Fowler or Jackson?

Paul Swydan: FOWLER

Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

Viva: More impressive feat: Cubs not winning the World Series since 1908 or no Canadian NHL team winning the Stanley Cup since 1993?

Paul Swydan: Not sure impressive is the correct word, but Cubs.

Jeff Zimmerman: Cubs, especially when there were less teams

Bossman junior: Dodgers sign both gourriel brothers then trade them to Miami for Giancarlo yes or no.

Paul Swydan: Maybe to the first part, no to the second. The Marlins aren’t that dumb. If they want those guys, they’ll sign them.

Jeff Zimmerman: No way

Jeff Zimmerman: brb

Jeff Zimmerman: sorry

Myles Phelps: Is Neil Walker and upgrade, downgrade, or a “meh” replacement for Murphy?

Paul Swydan: Somewhere between meh and upgrade.

Derek: Do you think the Phillies will be a little bit better than people think? Of course they’ll be terrible, but if a few breaks happen, I can see an 78-79 win team. Which is sad in its own right because if that’s considered a success…

Paul Swydan: Well, I wrote about this on Friday, and I think they’ll be a fun team who has a lot of players on whom you can dream. But I think 78-79 might be a stretch.

Rob G: What are your thoughts on Shawn Tolleson for this year? Chances he’s as good as he was in 2015?

Paul Swydan: I would say 0.1 percent chance he’s as good this year. It could happen, but I’m not banking on that at all.

The Dude of NY: Who do you think designed Puppy Monkey Baby: Dr Mengele or Dr. Moreau?

Paul Swydan: Whoever designed it should be shot, I know that much.

El Guapo: Just saw where Ron Shandler picked Dee Gordon ahead of Altuve. Says DG’s extreme SB’s would give him more room to maneuver later in the draft. Make any sense to yous guys?

Paul Swydan: Sure, that makes sense. I’m not sure I agree, but I can understand the argument.

Ryan: The next CBA will have a) an international draft, b) a revised QO system, c) both, or d) neither?

Paul Swydan: Definitely an international draft. Not sure about revised QO system, unless we can count abolishing the QO system as a revision.

Mel Parnell: I feel like the metrics on Chris Young’s defense are all over the map. Is he indeed a below-average outfielder? (And if so, remind me of the point, again?)

Paul Swydan: Well for starters he’s JBJ insurance. If JBJ really doesn’t hit again, then you play Mookie or Rusney in center more, and give Young more ABs. But even if his D is subpar, he’s a backup outfielder on a team with very good fielding outfielders. On the days he plays, one of those good fielding OFs will be sitting, and if need be, can come in late for defense.

Paul Swydan: But, no, I don’t think Young’s D is that bad.

The Dude of NY: How crazy is it that Rich Hill got twice as much guaranteed money as Matt Latos? Also, how did no team offer Latos more than 3mil?

Paul Swydan: The prevailing theory is that Latos is a person you would never want to spend time with, and as such most teams did a hard pass on him. Not sure if that’s valid or not, but that’s what I saw.

Ginger: Is Carlos Rodon an Ace?

Paul Swydan: Not yet he isn’t.

Mike: I traded Altuve for Buxton in a keeper league, no cost. Can keep forever. Thoughts?

Paul Swydan: You really have to believe in Buxton for that to work out for you. Not sure I would have done that. Sorry.

Matt: I’ve asked this question a few times, and keep getting the same answer, but your rankings suggest that Rasiel Iglesias is the better choice than Severino, yet everyone keeps telling me Severino, what gives?

Paul Swydan: I’m not sure why anyone would say that, to be honest. I think Iglesias has the more secure role, he pitches in the easier league, and in general may just be better. I’d go with him all the way.

Sam: I’m trying to deal Nelson Cruz for a 2b or 1b, name someone you might try and target around the similar value?

Paul Swydan: In the preseason, you should shoot for the moon. Cruz was so good last year.

Matt: So, as a Braves fan, the things I look forward to the most are: 1. MLB.com, KLaw, BA, BP, and Fangraphs top prospects lists; 2. Re-reading the articles that came out after the Swanson trade; 3. Researching Lazarito, Maitan, Abraham Gutierrez, and Severino (and watching their highlight videos for the 6514194516th time). And I’m EXCITED by these things… My question: WHAT’S WRONG WITH ME? After decades of consistently winning, is this what it’s like to be a normal baseball fan?

Jeff Zimmerman: That was disgusting … sick kids and carpet don’t mix

Paul Swydan: First, there’s nothing wrong with you. If that is how you enjoy spending your free time, then that’s great. Second, yes, this is how it feels to be a normal baseball fan.

Paul Swydan: Thanks for sharing, Jeff

Jeff Zimmerman: I am here for you Paul

Skarp Hedin: Inciarte? Steamer does not love the defense. The fans do love it. Without it he is not good at all. What do you guys think?

Jeff Zimmerman: Congrats to: Baseball writer of the year: Mike Podhorzer

Paul Swydan: Podz!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Paul Swydan: Congrats to Mike. Very well deserved.

Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

Paul Swydan: As for Inciarte, I do like the defense, but I won’t be shocked if he regresses some.

Jeff Zimmerman: Defense is hard to predict. Which is why the Royals always look bad in projections. I would guess he is +10 runs saved player

The Dude of NY: FWIW, Kiely liked Severino more than Iglesias.

Paul Swydan: And Kiley might be right. But right now, the projections like Iglesias more, and he was better last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=17130,15890

Paul Swydan: The Celtics have fallen apart this quarter and I don’t care for it.

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t. Iglesias could be special, but I think both have elevated injury risk

Ed in Iowa: I spent part of my day explaining to a student why Bryce Harper’s next contract is likely to be REALLY long and part of my day trying to figure out how to get around the ridiculous Cubs blackout rules in iowa, just FYI. My question: with the next CBA coming up soon and at least some uncertainty over the long-term future of broadcast rights revenues, do you think teams are more motivated, less motivated or no change when it comes to signing young players to long extensions (I’m trying to imagine what a 9 year Addison Russell contract might look like but don’t want to bother if there is some outside reason why one or both parties wouldn’t entertain the thought at the moment)

Paul Swydan: It’s an interesting question. I would think more motivated, since after the new CBA is signed, there will be new precedent under that CBA. Teams probably want to stay with this CBA, so as to not create a crazy precedent.

Jeff Zimmerman: No change for now. I don’t expect huge changes in the CBA and teams probably don’t either. They are just going to continue to sign the players they want.

Orlando Arcia: I;m going to be better than my older bro, by a long shot.

Paul Swydan: I like your confidence, Orlando.

Jeff Zimmerman: Way to push yourself with such unlofty goals

The Dude of NY: ZiPS projects Severino (2.7 WAR) to be better than Iglesias (2.0 WAR).

Jeff Zimmerman: I could see that, but disagree. Can’t we each have our own opinions.

Paul Swydan: Reminder that the WAR totals in Carson’s posts aren’t precisely what they will be when they are all plugged in. But OK, that’s fine. Iglesias was still better last year.

Skarp Hedin: Addison russell at nine years is over 180 million, right? With that glove and pop and youth and inflation etc that is a steal!

Paul Swydan: Uh, no. He might not even get 80, because at least a few of those years are going to be buying out cheap artbitration years, when his salary is capped.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would hold off if I was the Cubs. I would at least wait for one good MLB season from him first before going 9 years.

Jimmy: Starling Marte – about the same as last year with the bat, or room for even better? Also, if/when does he take over CF from Cutch?

Paul Swydan: Definitely room for growth, but I’d bank on basically the same.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think his bat is maxed out and I could even see some HR regression. There is no need to move him to CF now.

E: I think his point with the projections was that you claimed the projections favored iglesias and that wasn’t the case. It’s not that you can’t “see that, but disagree” but that the opposite was claimed and not true.

Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t want to speak for Jeff, but I generally use the depth charts projections, and ZiPS aren’t incorporated into that system yet.

Jeff Zimmerman: Did I? If so, sorry for the confusion.

Kylo Ren: I still don’t know how to use the Auction Calculator when trying to tweak for my league’s settings. Everything seems off.

Jeff Zimmerman: What part?

Paul Swydan: I’m sorry to hear that. I haven’t used it myself yet, but try hitting up Eno or Jeff or Zach or Paul Sporer on Twitter, see if they can help.

josh: I can deal Springer and Rendon for Miggy and Sherzer. My buddies are telling me I’m crazy if I don’t do it. No cost. Can keep them forever. Am I really that nuts for sticking with the younger guys?

Paul Swydan: Kind of, ya. Springer and Rendon are good chips, but both have some pretty bad injury histories.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes you’re crazy. I like the deal for you.

The Ultimate Boromir: Second best sp on the Sox staff at the end of the year. E-Rod?

Paul Swydan: That’d be fantastic, but for now I’ll say Buchholz.

Jeff Zimmerman: Someone they trade for from a non-contender

albertkly: Any concern with Chris Sale in terms of injury risk? Besides his throwing motion, he threw a lot more sliders in the second half last year (23%, compared to 17% in first half), while his FB and CH percentages declined. Velocity looks fine but is that slider stat a bad sign?

Paul Swydan: One for Jeff.

Jeff Zimmerman: My last Mash report has the injury risk on high slider usage. That article should be bookmarked for several factors in it.

Kylo Ren: I’m not complaining! I just know I’m doing something wrong and can’t quite figure it out.

Paul Swydan: I’m confident that you will get it eventually.

The Dude of NY: What would you say has been the worst move made this offseason (excluding the Miley/Smith trade and anything Dave Stewart has done)?

Paul Swydan: Dickerson-McGee

Jeff Zimmerman: The Ian Kennedy signing

Foz: I can trade Betts for Donaldson. keeper league. I really don’t want to trade Betts. Tell me I’m not an idiot.

Paul Swydan: You’re not an idiot.

Jeff Zimmerman: I would keep Betts knowing nothing else about the teams.

Phil: Ian Desmond is still unsigned. Two weeks before spring training, who’s being more unreasonable: Teams that don’t want to lose a draft pick or Desmond for not accepting a contract that’s nowhere near the $100 million the Nats offered?

Paul Swydan: Probably Desmond. But it’s close.

Jeff Zimmerman: Desmond

Paul Swydan: Well, Jeff and I rarely agree, so now that we have an agreement streak, I think it’s time to call it a night. Thanks as always for hanging out. We’ll see you next week!