2016 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Cincinnati / Kansas City / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Toronto.

Batters
The Texas Rangers outperformed their Base Runs record by seven wins this past season, resembling on the peripheral level more a league-average club than a division-winning one. That’s not to discredit their accomplishment, at all. It does, however, begin to explain how a team that won 88 games and returns literally all its positional starters — how such a team could look so ordinary by way of computer algorithms.

It certainly isn’t an advantage for Texas that they have a considerable portion of their payroll allocated to four merely decent players. Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and Josh Hamilton are expected to earn roughly $88 million collectively this year and yet to produce fewer than six wins as a group. That’s approximately $15 million per win — or nearly double the current estimated win valuation of the market.*

None of this, of course, is to impugn Adrian Beltre, who famously once played both Daedalus and Icarus in a community theater production of Ovid’s Metamorphoses.

*Note: I’ve neglected to mention here that a portion of Fielder’s and nearly all of Hamilton’s contracts are being subsidized by other clubs. Naturally, that changes the dollars-per-win calculus. What it doesn’t change is the projections themselves.

Pitchers
When the Rangers acquired Cole Hamels at the trade deadline this past year, the prevailing wisdom was that they’d done it with a view towards pairing him with a healthy Yu Darvish for 2016. They were seven games behind Houston at that point with a talented Angels club also in the way. Texas proceeded to win 38 of their last 60 games, though, accidentally winning the division and allowing Hamels to record actual meaningful innings in October.

Unsurprisingly, Darvish and Hamels receive the top-two forecasts among the club’s pitchers entering 2016. Which, a note on Darvish and his forecast. Here’s what ZiPS knows: that he recorded zero starts in 2015. Here’s what it doesn’t know: how come exactly. That said, the math looks right: Darvish is projected for 132 innings, roughly what one might expect from a starter who’s expected to miss a month or more to begin the season.

Bench/Prospects
It probably isn’t a popular position in Texas, or any of the other 49 states, to argue that Hanser Alberto is as good at baseball as Prince Fielder — nor would the 27 wRC+ produced by Alberto during his 100-plate-appearance debut do much to alter one’s opinion on that front. However! Alberto also recorded a league-average line in Triple-A last year as a 22-year-old shortstop. He makes contact, he defends, he’s young… and he’s projected to record the same WAR figure as Fielder in 2016 in 100 fewer plate appearances.

Besides Alberto, some of the club’s more celebrated prospects are also well-acquitted: Lewis Brinson, Joey Gallo, and Nomar Mazara — each of them 22 or younger — all receive a projection of at least one win. Among pitchers, the returns are less encouraging: right-hander Luke Jackson’s forecast both (a) calls for a nearly replacement-level performance and (b) represents the strongest projection among the Rangers’ rookie-eligible pitchers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rangers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Adrian Beltre	R	37	3B	547	66	144	27	3	16	70	1	0
Rougned Odor	L	22	2B	607	71	151	26	10	20	78	9	9
Shin-Soo Choo	L	33	RF	574	73	128	24	2	15	53	8	5
Elvis Andrus	R	27	SS	672	73	161	30	3	5	57	27	10
Prince Fielder	L	32	DH	603	60	143	26	0	18	74	1	0
Hanser Alberto	R	23	SS	494	50	125	21	4	6	43	9	7
Mike Napoli	R	34	1B	439	43	86	16	1	18	50	2	2
Robinson Chirinos	R	32	C	313	33	64	13	1	9	32	0	0
Lewis Brinson	R	22	CF	458	47	98	19	3	12	43	12	10
Joey Gallo	L	22	3B	529	64	98	18	2	27	69	6	1
Nomar Mazara	L	21	RF	573	59	136	23	3	19	57	2	1
Mitch Moreland	L	30	1B	412	41	97	20	1	16	62	1	0
Josh Hamilton	L	35	LF	374	43	88	17	1	14	49	2	1
Drew Stubbs	R	31	CF	397	45	76	13	2	10	30	16	3
Delino DeShields	R	23	CF	532	74	114	21	6	5	42	31	10
Chris Gimenez	R	33	C	343	35	70	13	1	6	28	2	1
Will Venable	L	33	CF	421	52	95	15	4	10	43	15	4
Adam Rosales	R	33	2B	262	27	56	11	1	6	20	4	3
Jurickson Profar	B	23	2B	320	33	68	15	3	6	29	8	4
Patrick Kivlehan	R	26	3B	526	60	118	21	2	14	61	9	3
Carlos Corporan	B	32	C	182	17	36	6	0	5	21	0	0
Bobby Wilson	R	33	C	229	19	45	7	0	2	20	0	1
Beamer Weems	R	28	SS	272	26	55	12	1	4	25	0	1
Ryan Cordell	R	24	CF	452	45	94	13	3	9	38	14	5
Ryan Strausborger	R	28	RF	442	43	94	17	3	7	35	20	4
Ed Lucas	R	34	3B	401	39	88	12	1	5	28	2	2
Antoan Richardson	B	32	CF	249	26	48	6	3	1	15	14	2
Ryan Rua	R	26	LF	423	44	88	17	1	13	41	4	2
Garrett Weber	R	27	2B	435	43	98	17	2	7	40	2	2
Evan Van Hoosier	R	22	2B	421	41	92	16	4	4	32	8	3
Alex Burg	R	28	C	367	37	69	13	1	8	32	1	1
Drew Robinson	L	24	2B	504	50	88	19	4	13	47	8	5
Guilder Rodriguez	B	32	3B	282	24	59	5	0	0	13	7	5
Ronald Guzman	L	21	1B	560	48	115	22	2	8	49	5	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Adrian Beltre	547	7.3%	11.7%	.163	.302	.289	.342	.452	.335
Rougned Odor	607	5.1%	15.8%	.192	.296	.273	.324	.465	.343
Shin-Soo Choo	574	12.4%	22.3%	.151	.328	.264	.372	.415	.352
Elvis Andrus	672	7.0%	13.2%	.084	.302	.267	.319	.351	.304
Prince Fielder	603	10.1%	15.4%	.151	.297	.271	.355	.422	.327
Hanser Alberto	494	2.2%	11.3%	.101	.291	.267	.287	.368	.286
Mike Napoli	439	13.4%	28.2%	.192	.291	.229	.339	.421	.333
Robinson Chirinos	313	7.7%	22.4%	.151	.274	.230	.301	.381	.296
Lewis Brinson	458	6.8%	27.7%	.145	.304	.234	.291	.379	.306
Joey Gallo	529	10.4%	41.4%	.219	.313	.209	.291	.428	.308
Nomar Mazara	573	7.0%	25.8%	.164	.324	.261	.316	.425	.322
Mitch Moreland	412	6.8%	21.6%	.188	.296	.259	.314	.447	.324
Josh Hamilton	374	7.2%	25.4%	.179	.314	.259	.313	.438	.319
Drew Stubbs	397	8.8%	34.0%	.133	.310	.213	.286	.346	.288
Delino DeShields	532	9.4%	22.0%	.104	.317	.247	.326	.351	.313
Chris Gimenez	343	8.2%	21.9%	.107	.279	.227	.294	.334	.277
Will Venable	421	7.6%	22.1%	.138	.302	.248	.310	.386	.310
Adam Rosales	262	6.9%	21.8%	.131	.282	.235	.295	.366	.297
Jurickson Profar	320	7.8%	18.1%	.136	.274	.236	.302	.372	.302
Patrick Kivlehan	526	5.3%	25.7%	.137	.302	.241	.287	.378	.295
Carlos Corporan	182	5.5%	26.4%	.127	.272	.218	.276	.345	.269
Bobby Wilson	229	7.4%	19.2%	.063	.265	.217	.279	.280	.248
Beamer Weems	272	6.3%	24.3%	.104	.280	.219	.273	.323	.264
Ryan Cordell	452	5.5%	27.4%	.110	.295	.225	.273	.335	.277
Ryan Strausborger	442	5.0%	21.7%	.108	.282	.230	.273	.338	.277
Ed Lucas	401	6.2%	22.9%	.078	.302	.237	.288	.315	.270
Antoan Richardson	249	8.8%	22.1%	.070	.294	.223	.311	.293	.285
Ryan Rua	423	6.6%	26.7%	.149	.284	.226	.286	.375	.294
Garrett Weber	435	5.3%	23.0%	.104	.304	.243	.290	.347	.283
Evan Van Hoosier	421	5.5%	23.0%	.092	.299	.235	.279	.327	.272
Alex Burg	367	8.2%	31.3%	.118	.292	.210	.281	.328	.272
Drew Robinson	504	9.1%	34.9%	.146	.285	.195	.275	.341	.277
Guilder Rodriguez	282	7.1%	16.3%	.019	.278	.230	.284	.249	.249
Ronald Guzman	560	5.0%	27.3%	.095	.290	.219	.259	.314	.255

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Adrian Beltre	547	5.9	115	6	3.6	Mike Lowell
Rougned Odor	607	5.4	113	-4	2.5	Robinson Cano
Shin-Soo Choo	574	5.6	116	-5	1.9	Wally Moon
Elvis Andrus	672	4.3	84	-1	1.8	Mike Lansing
Prince Fielder	603	5.6	112	0	1.4	Alvin Davis
Hanser Alberto	494	3.8	78	7	1.4	Hal Lanier
Mike Napoli	439	5.0	107	4	1.3	Pat Burrell
Robinson Chirinos	313	4.0	86	0	1.2	Jody Davis
Lewis Brinson	458	3.7	82	5	1.1	Jon Nunnally
Joey Gallo	529	4.3	94	-4	1.1	Willie Greene
Nomar Mazara	573	4.9	101	-1	1.0	Nick Markakis
Mitch Moreland	412	5.1	105	2	0.9	Daryle Ward
Josh Hamilton	374	5.0	103	-2	0.5	Lee Stevens
Drew Stubbs	397	3.7	72	2	0.5	Bo Porter
Delino DeShields	532	4.4	86	-8	0.5	Stan Javier
Chris Gimenez	343	3.4	72	-2	0.5	Robby Hammock
Will Venable	421	4.5	90	-6	0.5	Pat Sheridan
Adam Rosales	262	3.7	80	1	0.4	Webster Garrison
Jurickson Profar	320	4.0	83	-2	0.3	Scott Sizemore
Patrick Kivlehan	526	3.9	81	-5	0.2	Sean Berry
Carlos Corporan	182	3.3	69	-1	0.1	George Mitterwald
Bobby Wilson	229	2.6	54	2	0.1	Chad Moeller
Beamer Weems	272	3.0	63	1	0.0	Pedro Lopez
Ryan Cordell	452	3.3	66	1	-0.1	Shaun Cumberland
Ryan Strausborger	442	3.6	66	6	-0.2	Ramon Moreta
Ed Lucas	401	3.2	66	0	-0.3	Jorge Velandia
Antoan Richardson	249	3.7	67	-4	-0.3	Tom Goodwin
Ryan Rua	423	3.8	79	-1	-0.3	Andy Bevins
Garrett Weber	435	3.5	74	-5	-0.4	Juan Melo
Evan Van Hoosier	421	3.3	65	-2	-0.5	Juan Delgado
Alex Burg	367	3.1	67	-10	-0.6	Ray Stephens
Drew Robinson	504	3.1	68	-4	-0.6	Brandon Cromer
Guilder Rodriguez	282	2.4	48	0	-0.9	Shane Turner
Ronald Guzman	560	2.9	56	-3	-2.8	Rich Lane

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Cole Hamels	L	32	30	30	197.3	168	53	22	189	87	81
Yu Darvish	R	29	20	20	132.0	156	51	15	112	54	50
Yovani Gallardo	R	30	30	30	166.0	108	61	17	176	83	78
Derek Holland	L	29	18	18	100.7	85	30	14	102	51	48
Martin Perez	L	25	19	19	108.3	71	32	11	116	57	53
Chi Chi Gonzalez	R	24	29	25	140.3	81	56	14	147	76	71
Keone Kela	R	23	72	0	63.0	71	19	6	54	24	22
Shawn Tolleson	R	28	71	0	71.3	76	17	9	64	28	26
Sam Dyson	R	28	75	0	74.0	67	19	7	71	30	28
Nick Martinez	R	25	28	25	140.3	85	54	18	153	80	75
Phil Klein	R	27	40	6	71.3	68	34	7	65	34	32
Alex Claudio	L	24	46	4	73.3	57	17	8	75	34	32
Luke Jackson	R	24	38	12	89.7	84	44	11	87	48	45
Colby Lewis	R	36	22	22	128.7	89	34	18	142	75	70
Ross Ohlendorf	R	33	44	0	54.0	54	19	6	51	25	23
Yohander Mendez	L	21	18	9	55.7	47	17	8	57	30	28
Tom Wilhelmsen	R	32	53	0	64.0	58	30	6	58	30	28
Andrew Faulkner	L	23	37	18	109.7	91	51	16	113	64	60
Jake Diekman	L	29	71	0	65.3	68	33	6	60	32	30
Sam Freeman	L	29	61	0	57.0	51	30	5	54	28	26
Anthony Ranaudo	R	26	25	24	134.0	91	55	21	143	82	77
Ross Wolf	R	33	23	11	83.7	36	26	9	98	50	47
Jared Burton	R	35	40	0	37.0	32	14	5	36	19	18
Robert Coello	R	31	28	7	64.0	50	33	9	67	39	36
Tanner Scheppers	R	29	53	0	49.7	41	23	6	49	27	25
John Fasola	R	24	35	0	43.7	39	15	7	44	24	22
Jimmy Reyes	L	27	42	3	60.7	37	22	7	67	34	32
Kyuji Fujikawa	R	35	16	0	14.7	13	6	2	15	9	8
Chad Smith	R	26	34	0	48.0	34	17	6	52	28	26
Edwar Cabrera	L	28	28	15	100.0	65	34	16	112	63	59
Adam Parks	R	23	31	0	55.0	49	20	8	56	31	29
David Martinez	R	28	37	9	84.7	49	32	11	95	52	49
Francisco Mendoza	R	28	43	1	58.0	44	33	7	59	34	32
Connor Sadzeck	R	24	21	19	83.3	49	59	9	91	56	52
Frank Lopez	L	22	21	20	95.7	67	40	17	108	64	60
Mike Kickham	L	27	21	15	84.7	59	49	12	95	58	54
Jose Leclerc	R	22	32	14	80.0	68	61	14	85	59	55

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Cole Hamels	197.3	834	20.1%	6.4%	.286	3.69	3.72	87	90
Yu Darvish	132.0	559	27.9%	9.1%	.291	3.41	3.45	80	83
Yovani Gallardo	166.0	735	14.7%	8.3%	.290	4.23	4.26	99	103
Derek Holland	100.7	434	19.6%	6.9%	.291	4.29	4.18	101	101
Martin Perez	108.3	473	15.0%	6.8%	.295	4.40	4.03	103	97
Chi Chi Gonzalez	140.3	624	13.0%	9.0%	.285	4.55	4.57	107	111
Keone Kela	63.0	262	27.1%	7.3%	.289	3.14	2.99	74	72
Shawn Tolleson	71.3	295	25.8%	5.8%	.288	3.28	3.20	77	77
Sam Dyson	74.0	312	21.5%	6.1%	.298	3.41	3.38	80	82
Nick Martinez	140.3	628	13.5%	8.6%	.292	4.81	4.89	113	118
Phil Klein	71.3	313	21.7%	10.9%	.290	4.04	3.95	95	95
Alex Claudio	73.3	312	18.3%	5.5%	.297	3.93	3.79	92	92
Luke Jackson	89.7	400	21.0%	11.0%	.296	4.52	4.43	106	107
Colby Lewis	128.7	562	15.8%	6.0%	.299	4.90	4.45	115	108
Ross Ohlendorf	54.0	232	23.3%	8.2%	.300	3.83	3.61	90	87
Yohander Mendez	55.7	241	19.5%	7.1%	.297	4.53	4.42	106	107
Tom Wilhelmsen	64.0	280	20.7%	10.7%	.283	3.94	3.82	93	93
Andrew Faulkner	109.7	493	18.5%	10.3%	.295	4.92	4.87	116	118
Jake Diekman	65.3	289	23.5%	11.4%	.302	4.13	3.78	97	91
Sam Freeman	57.0	255	20.0%	11.8%	.297	4.11	4.25	97	103
Anthony Ranaudo	134.0	600	15.2%	9.2%	.286	5.17	5.15	122	125
Ross Wolf	83.7	375	9.6%	6.9%	.297	5.06	4.68	119	113
Jared Burton	37.0	161	19.9%	8.7%	.287	4.38	4.27	103	103
Robert Coello	64.0	292	17.1%	11.3%	.294	5.06	5.06	119	122
Tanner Scheppers	49.7	221	18.5%	10.4%	.292	4.53	4.47	106	108
John Fasola	43.7	190	20.5%	7.9%	.291	4.53	4.50	106	109
Jimmy Reyes	60.7	271	13.6%	8.1%	.298	4.75	4.62	112	112
Kyuji Fujikawa	14.7	65	20.0%	9.2%	.302	4.91	4.33	115	105
Chad Smith	48.0	213	16.0%	8.0%	.301	4.87	4.56	114	110
Edwar Cabrera	100.0	446	14.6%	7.6%	.295	5.31	5.09	125	123
Adam Parks	55.0	241	20.3%	8.3%	.300	4.75	4.52	112	109
David Martinez	84.7	381	12.9%	8.4%	.296	5.21	4.84	122	117
Francisco Mendoza	58.0	266	16.5%	12.4%	.292	4.97	5.02	117	121
Connor Sadzeck	83.3	400	12.3%	14.8%	.295	5.62	5.64	132	136
Frank Lopez	95.7	435	15.4%	9.2%	.297	5.64	5.43	133	131
Mike Kickham	84.7	398	14.8%	12.3%	.303	5.74	5.43	135	131
Jose Leclerc	80.0	386	17.6%	15.8%	.298	6.19	6.16	145	149

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Cole Hamels	197.3	7.66	2.42	1.00	111	3.7	Kenny Rogers
Yu Darvish	132.0	10.64	3.48	1.02	120	2.9	Hideo Nomo
Yovani Gallardo	166.0	5.86	3.31	0.92	97	1.9	Omar Olivares
Derek Holland	100.7	7.60	2.68	1.25	96	1.1	Mark Redman
Martin Perez	108.3	5.90	2.66	0.91	93	1.1	Nate Robertson
Chi Chi Gonzalez	140.3	5.20	3.59	0.90	90	1.1	Craig McMurtry
Keone Kela	63.0	10.14	2.71	0.86	131	0.9	Antonio Osuna
Shawn Tolleson	71.3	9.59	2.15	1.14	125	0.9	Steve Reed
Sam Dyson	74.0	8.15	2.31	0.85	121	0.8	Chad Bradford
Nick Martinez	140.3	5.45	3.46	1.15	85	0.7	Steve Falteisek
Phil Klein	71.3	8.58	4.29	0.88	102	0.7	Jim Stoops
Alex Claudio	73.3	7.00	2.09	0.98	105	0.7	Ryan Meaux
Luke Jackson	89.7	8.43	4.41	1.10	91	0.5	Tom McCarthy
Colby Lewis	128.7	6.22	2.38	1.26	84	0.5	Dennis Springer
Ross Ohlendorf	54.0	9.00	3.17	1.00	107	0.3	Doug Henry
Yohander Mendez	55.7	7.59	2.75	1.29	91	0.3	Rob Tejeda
Tom Wilhelmsen	64.0	8.16	4.22	0.84	104	0.3	Alan Mills
Andrew Faulkner	109.7	7.47	4.18	1.31	83	0.2	Brian Burres
Jake Diekman	65.3	9.37	4.55	0.83	99	0.1	Greg McCarthy
Sam Freeman	57.0	8.05	4.74	0.79	100	0.1	Scott Wiegandt
Anthony Ranaudo	134.0	6.11	3.69	1.41	79	0.1	Frank Potestio
Ross Wolf	83.7	3.87	2.80	0.97	81	0.1	Bob Scanlan
Jared Burton	37.0	7.78	3.41	1.22	94	-0.1	Ricky Bottalico
Robert Coello	64.0	7.03	4.64	1.27	81	-0.1	Matt Albers
Tanner Scheppers	49.7	7.42	4.16	1.09	91	-0.1	Mike Cook
John Fasola	43.7	8.03	3.09	1.44	91	-0.1	Matt Herges
Jimmy Reyes	60.7	5.49	3.26	1.04	86	-0.1	Mike Bell
Kyuji Fujikawa	14.7	7.96	3.67	1.22	84	-0.1	Ernie Camacho
Chad Smith	48.0	6.38	3.19	1.13	84	-0.3	Thad Markray
Edwar Cabrera	100.0	5.85	3.06	1.44	77	-0.3	Tommy Phelps
Adam Parks	55.0	8.02	3.27	1.31	87	-0.3	John Daniels
David Martinez	84.7	5.21	3.40	1.17	79	-0.4	Edwin Corps
Francisco Mendoza	58.0	6.83	5.12	1.09	83	-0.4	Jake Robbins
Connor Sadzeck	83.3	5.29	6.37	0.97	73	-0.4	Jesus Silva
Frank Lopez	95.7	6.30	3.76	1.60	73	-0.6	Matt White
Mike Kickham	84.7	6.27	5.21	1.28	72	-0.6	Jeff Tabaka
Jose Leclerc	80.0	7.65	6.86	1.58	66	-1.1	Greg Ferlenda

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.