2016 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Kansas City.

Batters
Toronto’s position players recorded the highest collective WAR in the majors this past year. Based on the numbers produced by ZiPS for 2016, the possibility of repeating that feat would appear to be distinct. Adding the rounded WAR figures in the depth chart below — a practice, it needs to be said, that should be reserved for entertainment purposes only — yields a sum of about 28 wins. That total would have been the third-highest in 2015. An encouraging development, that.

The strengths of the team aren’t surprising. Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Troy Tulowitzki have been good in the past and appear capable of continuing that trend. Of some interest is what appears to be the team’s only weakness — namely, second base. Devon Travis exhibited considerable promise as a rookie, but is expected to begin the season on the disabled list. Ryan Goins, meanwhile — despite what appears to be above-average defense — is regarded by Szymborski’s computer as a replacement-level player. Finding even just some value from second would appear to represent an easy means by which the club can improve itself this offseason.

Pitchers
Among the pitchers expected to begin the season in the Jays’ rotation, glorious Marcus Stroman receives the top WAR projection on a per-inning basis. Among that same group, however, Stroman also receives the lowest overall innings projection. This isn’t a surprise, of course: what ZiPS knows is that Stroman recorded just 27 innings in 2015. Missing most of one season generally isn’t a positive indicator for the season which follows it.

Also notable among the starters is the relatively modest projection (1.3 zWAR, 135.2 IP) for the newly signed J.A. Happ. The terms offered by Toronto suggest implicitly that the club believes Happ will retain some of the excellence he exhibited in Pittsburgh. Like most algorithms, the ones which inform ZiPS are skeptical about a pitcher replicating a brief spell of greatness given the burden of a longer spell of mediocrity.

Bench/Prospects
Dalton Pompey just barely exhausted his rookie eligibility in 2015. His offensive projections render him more of a strong bench piece at the moment than emerging star. Anthony Alford, probably the club’s top positional prospect, profiles as something slightly better than replacement-level entering his age-21 season. Infielder Andy Burns isn’t the club’s top positional prospect, but is a minor-leaguer who’s played a lot of second base and receives a better projection than Ryan Goins. Among pitchers, the newly acquired Jesse Chavez isn’t included in the depth-chart image below and also isn’t a prospect. He is forecast more or less to match Happ’s contribution given the opportunity.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Toronto, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.95 ERA and the NL having a 3.79 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.