2016 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
This set of ZiPS projections for the Nationals represents the 23rd post in this offseason series. A brief examination of the 22 previous installments reveals that no field player has received as robust a forecast yet as Bryce Harper (579 PA, 6.9 zWAR) does here. The other top contenders? Josh Donaldson (6.6 zWAR), Buster Posey (6.3), and Andrew McCutchen (6.0). Conspicuous by his absence from that brief list, of course, is Mike Trout. As for when Szymborski intends to release the Angels’ projections, one can only speculate as to that heartless monster’s plans.

Apart from their outfield wunderkind, the Nationals’ collection of batters is rather ordinary. Third baseman Anthony Rendon (512 PA, 3.3 zWAR) has the benefit both of youth and also a six-win season in his recent past. Otherwise, no starting field player receives a projection that reaches even the two-win threshold, the recently acquired Daniel Murphy (606 PA, 1.9 zWAR) representing the best of the remaining six.

Pitchers
It’s rare that a projection system like the one inside Dan Szymborski’s computer will produce a win figure, on a team level, that would have represented one of the previous season’s top marks. The range of likely median outcomes — which, this is essentially what projections are, a collection of likely median outcomes — tends to be smaller than the range of observed outcomes, owing to the influence of random variation. That said, one finds here that, a season after the rotation produced a collective 18 wins — which represented the second-best mark among all teams — that the Nationals’ top five starters are forecast to produce roughly 18 wins.

Optimism is everywhere: optimism for Stephen Strasburg (169.2 IP, 4.5 zWAR) to produce an ace-like season, for Tanner Roark (141.1 IP, 2.1 zWAR) to more greatly resemble the 2014 edition of himself, and for Joe Ross (135.1 IP, 1.9 zWAR) to build upon his successful rookie season.

With regard to the bullpen, it notably lacks Drew Storen, now a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. While the club might miss Storen in the most high-leverage of situations, the team does seem to possess a rather deep collection of useful relief arms, a collection augmented by the arrivals both of Shawn Kelley (52.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) and Oliver Perez (46.2 IP, 0.6 zWAR).

Bench/Prospects
While, as noted above, only two starters (Harper and Rendon) are forecast to cross the two-win threshold in 2016, there is a third player who, given sufficient plate appearances, is also a candidate to do that. Trea Turner (483 PA, 2.2 zWAR) doesn’t appear to possess great control of the plate, but has produced markedly above-average BABIP figures throughout the minors, giving him sufficient offensive production, in addition to the shortstop skills, to profile as an average major leaguer right now. Among rookie-eligible players, both Wilmer Difo (482 PA, 1.1 zWAR) and Pedro Severino (375 PA, 1.1 zWAR) also appear sufficiently prepared to help out the parent club in 2016. As for pitchers, the top projections omitted from the depth-chart graphic belong to prospects Austin Voth (133.1 IP, 1.5 zWAR) and Lucas Giolito (119.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR).

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Washingtons, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.