2016 ZiPS Projections – Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
This set of ZiPS projections for the Nationals represents the 23rd post in this offseason series. A brief examination of the 22 previous installments reveals that no field player has received as robust a forecast yet as Bryce Harper (579 PA, 6.9 zWAR) does here. The other top contenders? Josh Donaldson (6.6 zWAR), Buster Posey (6.3), and Andrew McCutchen (6.0). Conspicuous by his absence from that brief list, of course, is Mike Trout. As for when Szymborski intends to release the Angels’ projections, one can only speculate as to that heartless monster’s plans.

Apart from their outfield wunderkind, the Nationals’ collection of batters is rather ordinary. Third baseman Anthony Rendon (512 PA, 3.3 zWAR) has the benefit both of youth and also a six-win season in his recent past. Otherwise, no starting field player receives a projection that reaches even the two-win threshold, the recently acquired Daniel Murphy (606 PA, 1.9 zWAR) representing the best of the remaining six.

Pitchers
It’s rare that a projection system like the one inside Dan Szymborski’s computer will produce a win figure, on a team level, that would have represented one of the previous season’s top marks. The range of likely median outcomes — which, this is essentially what projections are, a collection of likely median outcomes — tends to be smaller than the range of observed outcomes, owing to the influence of random variation. That said, one finds here that, a season after the rotation produced a collective 18 wins — which represented the second-best mark among all teams — that the Nationals’ top five starters are forecast to produce roughly 18 wins.

Optimism is everywhere: optimism for Stephen Strasburg (169.2 IP, 4.5 zWAR) to produce an ace-like season, for Tanner Roark (141.1 IP, 2.1 zWAR) to more greatly resemble the 2014 edition of himself, and for Joe Ross (135.1 IP, 1.9 zWAR) to build upon his successful rookie season.

With regard to the bullpen, it notably lacks Drew Storen, now a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. While the club might miss Storen in the most high-leverage of situations, the team does seem to possess a rather deep collection of useful relief arms, a collection augmented by the arrivals both of Shawn Kelley (52.0 IP, 0.8 zWAR) and Oliver Perez (46.2 IP, 0.6 zWAR).

Bench/Prospects
While, as noted above, only two starters (Harper and Rendon) are forecast to cross the two-win threshold in 2016, there is a third player who, given sufficient plate appearances, is also a candidate to do that. Trea Turner (483 PA, 2.2 zWAR) doesn’t appear to possess great control of the plate, but has produced markedly above-average BABIP figures throughout the minors, giving him sufficient offensive production, in addition to the shortstop skills, to profile as an average major leaguer right now. Among rookie-eligible players, both Wilmer Difo (482 PA, 1.1 zWAR) and Pedro Severino (375 PA, 1.1 zWAR) also appear sufficiently prepared to help out the parent club in 2016. As for pitchers, the top projections omitted from the depth-chart graphic belong to prospects Austin Voth (133.1 IP, 1.5 zWAR) and Lucas Giolito (119.0 IP, 1.4 zWAR).

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Washingtons, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Bryce Harper	L	23	RF	579	93	147	27	2	34	79	5	4
Anthony Rendon	R	26	3B	512	67	122	27	3	13	52	6	2
Ian Desmond	R	30	SS	623	69	145	28	3	21	74	17	5
Trea Turner	R	23	SS	483	56	115	19	5	8	47	20	6
Daniel Murphy	L	31	2B	606	76	161	36	3	12	74	10	3
Ben Revere	L	28	CF	586	75	166	18	6	1	36	34	8
Wilson Ramos	R	28	C	392	35	92	13	0	13	57	0	0
Danny Espinosa	B	29	2B	435	49	88	20	2	11	37	7	2
Pedro Severino	R	22	C	375	37	85	15	1	7	33	2	1
Matt den Dekker	L	28	CF	443	53	99	20	5	10	47	10	4
Wilmer Difo	B	24	SS	482	49	112	21	4	7	45	22	5
Michael Taylor	R	25	CF	533	54	109	20	3	13	58	21	7
Ryan Zimmerman	R	31	1B	426	49	98	23	1	15	69	2	0
Spencer Kieboom	R	25	C	246	24	55	12	1	3	18	1	1
Stephen Drew	L	33	2B	394	36	77	19	3	10	42	1	1
Jose Lobaton	B	31	C	209	19	42	8	1	4	23	0	0
Dan Butler	R	29	C	327	30	68	18	1	4	28	0	0
Jayson Werth	R	37	LF	438	55	93	20	1	13	52	4	1
Jason Martinson	R	27	3B	528	52	95	14	4	14	49	11	3
Jhonatan Solano	R	30	C	252	24	57	11	1	4	24	0	0
Logan Schafer	L	29	CF	384	36	79	18	4	3	30	5	2
Scott Sizemore	R	31	3B	299	33	62	13	2	5	29	2	1
Josh Johnson	B	30	2B	266	25	55	8	1	2	19	4	3
Chris Bostick	R	23	2B	578	59	128	23	5	12	56	20	9
Brian Goodwin	L	25	CF	452	46	88	15	5	7	38	11	7
Zack Cox	L	27	3B	393	41	89	20	2	5	35	1	0
Tony Gwynn Jr.	L	33	LF	315	30	67	10	3	1	21	7	4
Kevin Mattison	L	30	CF	201	21	36	8	2	4	11	8	4
Nate McLouth	L	34	LF	279	30	57	13	2	5	18	10	2
Matt Skole	L	26	3B	430	44	81	17	1	11	54	3	1
Brian Jeroloman	L	31	C	198	17	34	5	0	1	11	0	1
Ian Stewart	L	31	3B	200	20	33	7	2	6	19	1	0
Steven Lerud	L	31	C	206	19	38	7	0	2	14	0	0
Rafael Bautista	R	23	CF	420	43	98	12	4	3	29	33	10
Dan Uggla	R	36	2B	266	28	45	8	1	7	33	1	1
Mario Lisson	R	32	3B	343	32	64	12	0	7	28	5	2
Clint Robinson	L	31	1B	416	45	89	18	2	9	40	0	0
Tyler Moore	R	29	1B	321	31	68	17	0	11	43	1	1
Cutter Dykstra	R	27	2B	450	41	88	15	1	5	33	9	6
Reed Johnson	R	39	LF	93	10	21	6	0	2	12	0	0
Marquez Smith	R	31	1B	433	46	89	19	2	8	41	2	2
Derrick Robinson	B	28	CF	371	33	76	8	2	0	17	15	7
Drew Ward	L	21	3B	490	45	95	18	2	9	46	1	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Bryce Harper	579	16.9%	20.0%	.281	.347	.311	.431	.592	.426
Anthony Rendon	512	9.6%	18.4%	.159	.311	.270	.344	.429	.339
Ian Desmond	623	6.7%	25.8%	.171	.316	.254	.308	.425	.324
Trea Turner	483	6.4%	22.8%	.120	.323	.258	.306	.378	.310
Daniel Murphy	606	5.6%	11.2%	.138	.304	.285	.325	.423	.323
Ben Revere	586	4.1%	8.9%	.060	.329	.301	.331	.361	.318
Wilson Ramos	392	4.8%	17.3%	.141	.271	.249	.283	.390	.288
Danny Espinosa	435	6.2%	29.2%	.144	.297	.223	.286	.367	.285
Pedro Severino	375	4.5%	19.7%	.108	.289	.244	.281	.352	.274
Matt den Dekker	443	7.0%	24.4%	.149	.308	.244	.302	.393	.308
Wilmer Difo	482	3.9%	20.7%	.110	.299	.246	.281	.356	.289
Michael Taylor	533	7.3%	32.8%	.134	.319	.224	.284	.358	.289
Ryan Zimmerman	426	8.7%	20.2%	.183	.289	.257	.319	.440	.327
Spencer Kieboom	246	6.9%	19.5%	.102	.294	.243	.297	.345	.285
Stephen Drew	394	9.1%	20.3%	.156	.253	.219	.291	.375	.288
Jose Lobaton	209	8.6%	24.4%	.117	.284	.223	.293	.340	.277
Dan Butler	327	7.3%	22.3%	.108	.290	.230	.294	.338	.278
Jayson Werth	438	10.7%	20.3%	.160	.282	.244	.331	.404	.324
Jason Martinson	528	7.4%	38.3%	.134	.305	.198	.264	.332	.269
Jhonatan Solano	252	4.0%	14.3%	.105	.266	.241	.275	.346	.268
Logan Schafer	384	6.5%	17.2%	.101	.272	.228	.285	.329	.269
Scott Sizemore	299	8.4%	25.1%	.120	.300	.231	.300	.351	.288
Josh Johnson	266	9.4%	16.2%	.069	.277	.236	.307	.305	.274
Chris Bostick	578	4.7%	23.4%	.129	.295	.238	.283	.367	.296
Brian Goodwin	452	8.6%	28.3%	.112	.296	.216	.288	.328	.284
Zack Cox	393	6.1%	25.2%	.107	.319	.244	.293	.351	.282
Tony Gwynn Jr.	315	7.6%	14.3%	.067	.276	.237	.299	.304	.274
Kevin Mattison	201	6.5%	35.8%	.130	.294	.196	.255	.326	.271
Nate McLouth	279	8.2%	17.2%	.128	.263	.228	.300	.356	.296
Matt Skole	430	11.2%	30.9%	.139	.298	.215	.307	.354	.294
Brian Jeroloman	198	11.1%	25.8%	.047	.275	.199	.292	.246	.245
Ian Stewart	200	9.0%	35.5%	.163	.265	.185	.270	.348	.271
Steven Lerud	206	8.3%	29.1%	.070	.295	.207	.288	.277	.254
Rafael Bautista	420	3.8%	15.7%	.074	.291	.249	.286	.323	.291
Dan Uggla	266	11.7%	30.1%	.134	.264	.196	.301	.330	.285
Mario Lisson	343	6.7%	28.9%	.107	.274	.206	.269	.313	.261
Clint Robinson	416	9.4%	18.8%	.132	.279	.239	.315	.371	.300
Tyler Moore	321	7.5%	24.9%	.171	.279	.232	.293	.403	.303
Cutter Dykstra	450	8.9%	28.2%	.080	.304	.219	.294	.299	.275
Reed Johnson	93	0.0%	20.4%	.138	.279	.241	.261	.379	.272
Marquez Smith	433	8.3%	25.2%	.121	.295	.229	.300	.350	.289
Derrick Robinson	371	7.0%	21.3%	.036	.292	.226	.281	.262	.256
Drew Ward	490	6.5%	34.7%	.109	.314	.210	.268	.319	.262

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Bryce Harper	579	9.9	176	1	6.9	Ted Williams
Anthony Rendon	512	5.5	110	4	3.3	Todd Zeile
Ian Desmond	623	4.9	98	-1	3.1	Sea Bass Gonzalez
Trea Turner	483	4.4	85	4	2.2	Vance Law
Daniel Murphy	606	5.3	102	-7	1.9	Todd Walker
Ben Revere	586	5.0	89	-3	1.7	Juan Pierre
Wilson Ramos	392	4.0	82	3	1.6	Scott Servais
Danny Espinosa	435	3.7	77	6	1.2	Jim Chamblee
Pedro Severino	375	3.5	72	3	1.1	Rene Rivera
Matt den Dekker	443	4.3	88	-1	1.1	Keith Hughes
Wilmer Difo	482	3.9	72	2	1.1	Shawon Dunston
Michael Taylor	533	3.7	74	4	0.9	Mario Encarnacion
Ryan Zimmerman	426	5.2	105	0	0.9	Russ Morman
Spencer Kieboom	246	3.6	75	1	0.8	David Duff
Stephen Drew	394	3.7	80	0	0.6	Dick McAuliffe
Jose Lobaton	209	3.5	73	0	0.5	Chad Moeller
Dan Butler	327	3.5	72	-3	0.5	Carl Nichols
Jayson Werth	438	4.8	100	-6	0.5	Tim Salmon
Jason Martinson	528	3.1	62	5	0.4	Kody Kirkland
Jhonatan Solano	252	3.4	68	-1	0.3	Charlie Greene
Logan Schafer	384	3.3	67	3	0.3	Phil Dauphin
Scott Sizemore	299	3.7	77	-2	0.2	Dave Matranga
Josh Johnson	266	3.2	68	2	0.2	Todd Crosby
Chris Bostick	578	3.7	76	-5	0.2	Jose Castillo
Brian Goodwin	452	3.2	68	1	0.2	Mark Budzinski
Zack Cox	393	3.7	75	-2	0.2	Greg David
Tony Gwynn Jr.	315	3.2	65	7	0.2	Ryan Fleming
Kevin Mattison	201	2.8	57	4	0.1	Kevin Koslofski
Nate McLouth	279	4.0	78	0	0.1	Dave May
Matt Skole	430	3.8	80	-7	0.0	Sean Mcnally
Brian Jeroloman	198	2.3	49	1	0.0	Bob Swift
Ian Stewart	200	3.2	67	-1	0.0	Scott Stahoviak
Steven Lerud	206	2.7	55	-1	0.0	Jayhawk Owens
Rafael Bautista	420	3.7	66	-4	-0.2	Leo Sutherland
Dan Uggla	266	3.3	72	-5	-0.3	Craig Counsell
Mario Lisson	343	2.9	58	1	-0.3	Trace Coquillette
Clint Robinson	416	4.2	87	-3	-0.3	Larry Sutton
Tyler Moore	321	4.1	88	-3	-0.3	Jeff Kipila
Cutter Dykstra	450	3.0	63	-2	-0.4	Odie Davis
Reed Johnson	93	3.5	72	-4	-0.5	Brian Jordan
Marquez Smith	433	3.6	77	0	-0.6	Derek Nicholson
Derrick Robinson	371	2.6	50	-1	-0.9	Keith Smith
Drew Ward	490	2.9	59	-5	-1.0	Billy Rowell

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Max Scherzer	R	31	32	31	212.3	249	57	15	170	67	63
Stephen Strasburg	R	27	29	29	169.7	194	37	16	145	59	55
Gio Gonzalez	L	30	28	28	162.7	160	63	11	148	66	62
Doug Fister	R	32	24	20	132.3	94	26	13	135	58	54
Tanner Roark	R	29	32	20	141.3	96	33	14	140	62	58
Joe Ross	R	23	27	25	135.3	112	39	14	131	62	58
A.J. Cole	R	24	23	23	133.7	103	35	19	134	64	60
Austin Voth	R	24	26	25	133.3	117	47	15	129	64	60
Lucas Giolito	R	21	20	20	119.0	108	44	14	114	58	54
Taylor Jordan	R	27	18	17	97.0	66	25	8	101	46	43
Jonathan Papelbon	R	35	55	0	56.7	49	12	5	51	20	19
Blake Treinen	R	28	65	0	76.7	72	29	5	69	30	28
Yusmeiro Petit	R	31	34	9	93.3	84	19	13	92	45	42
Shawn Kelley	R	32	55	0	52.0	64	18	4	42	18	17
Rafael Martin	R	32	42	0	51.7	62	17	5	43	19	18
Aaron Barrett	R	28	52	0	43.3	50	13	3	36	15	14
Felipe Rivero	L	24	60	0	56.3	50	17	4	49	21	20
Taylor Hill	R	27	27	23	138.0	78	30	17	154	75	70
Oliver Perez	L	34	62	0	46.7	56	18	4	40	18	17
Mitch Lively	R	30	31	12	86.3	68	43	8	84	45	42
Paolo Espino	R	29	27	21	129.7	97	34	20	138	73	68
Bruce Billings	R	30	24	18	111.3	77	36	13	117	61	57
Craig Stammen	R	32	41	0	60.0	51	18	4	58	26	24
Sammy Solis	L	27	24	5	44.3	32	14	3	44	20	19
Matt Grace	L	27	55	0	67.7	49	23	4	68	30	28
Trevor Gott	R	23	68	0	71.3	54	29	5	68	32	30
Matt Thornton	L	39	51	0	32.0	22	9	2	30	13	12
Casey Janssen	R	34	50	0	44.0	34	9	4	43	19	18
Evan Meek	R	33	44	4	67.0	48	30	6	67	34	32
Abel de los Santos	R	23	43	0	59.7	53	19	8	58	29	27
Sam Runion	R	27	41	0	59.3	46	21	6	59	29	27
Juan Gutierrez	R	32	47	0	58.7	44	19	6	59	29	27
Aaron Laffey	L	31	26	17	111.7	60	42	12	125	65	61
Stephen Shackleford	R	27	51	0	57.7	50	30	5	55	29	27
Matt Spann	L	25	23	17	105.3	62	50	11	116	62	58
P.J. Walters	R	31	24	17	107.7	74	44	14	116	64	60
Darin Gorski	L	28	22	21	109.7	87	47	17	114	66	62
Erik Davis	R	29	38	0	46.7	40	24	5	46	25	23
Scott McGregor	R	29	25	19	110.7	64	40	16	124	67	63
Boone Whiting	R	26	23	18	103.0	73	51	14	110	63	59
Nick Lee	L	25	42	0	50.0	50	40	5	45	28	26
Tim Alderson	R	27	24	5	60.0	41	21	9	66	36	34
Bryan Harper	L	26	39	0	48.7	35	29	6	51	30	28

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Max Scherzer	212.3	864	28.8%	6.6%	.288	2.67	2.60	68	67
Stephen Strasburg	169.7	691	28.1%	5.4%	.294	2.92	2.84	75	73
Gio Gonzalez	162.7	699	22.9%	9.0%	.296	3.43	3.25	88	84
Doug Fister	132.3	558	16.8%	4.7%	.292	3.67	3.72	94	96
Tanner Roark	141.3	597	16.1%	5.5%	.281	3.69	3.86	94	100
Joe Ross	135.3	576	19.4%	6.8%	.289	3.86	3.83	99	99
A.J. Cole	133.7	570	18.1%	6.1%	.283	4.04	4.39	103	113
Austin Voth	133.3	576	20.3%	8.2%	.292	4.05	4.06	104	105
Lucas Giolito	119.0	515	21.0%	8.5%	.291	4.08	4.11	104	106
Taylor Jordan	97.0	417	15.8%	6.0%	.297	3.99	3.77	102	97
Jonathan Papelbon	56.7	233	21.0%	5.1%	.282	3.02	3.37	77	87
Blake Treinen	76.7	328	21.9%	8.8%	.291	3.29	3.15	84	81
Yusmeiro Petit	93.3	391	21.5%	4.9%	.289	4.05	3.78	104	98
Shawn Kelley	52.0	216	29.6%	8.3%	.292	2.94	2.57	75	66
Rafael Martin	51.7	215	28.8%	7.9%	.297	3.14	3.12	80	81
Aaron Barrett	43.3	179	27.9%	7.3%	.298	2.91	2.72	74	70
Felipe Rivero	56.3	235	21.3%	7.2%	.276	3.20	3.16	82	82
Taylor Hill	138.0	598	13.0%	5.0%	.295	4.57	4.44	117	115
Oliver Perez	46.7	198	28.3%	9.1%	.310	3.28	3.16	84	82
Mitch Lively	86.3	386	17.6%	11.1%	.290	4.38	4.43	112	114
Paolo Espino	129.7	561	17.3%	6.1%	.293	4.72	4.62	121	119
Bruce Billings	111.3	487	15.8%	7.4%	.293	4.61	4.43	118	114
Craig Stammen	60.0	256	19.9%	7.0%	.298	3.60	3.18	92	82
Sammy Solis	44.3	191	16.8%	7.3%	.293	3.86	3.61	99	93
Matt Grace	67.7	294	16.7%	7.8%	.299	3.72	3.59	95	93
Trevor Gott	71.3	311	17.4%	9.3%	.288	3.79	3.82	97	99
Matt Thornton	32.0	135	16.3%	6.7%	.280	3.37	3.44	86	89
Casey Janssen	44.0	184	18.5%	4.9%	.287	3.68	3.34	94	86
Evan Meek	67.0	298	16.1%	10.1%	.290	4.30	4.33	110	112
Abel de los Santos	59.7	256	20.7%	7.4%	.291	4.07	4.18	104	108
Sam Runion	59.3	258	17.8%	8.1%	.293	4.10	4.09	105	106
Juan Gutierrez	58.7	254	17.3%	7.5%	.289	4.14	4.01	106	104
Aaron Laffey	111.7	502	11.9%	8.4%	.297	4.92	4.75	126	123
Stephen Shackleford	57.7	258	19.4%	11.6%	.294	4.21	4.22	108	109
Matt Spann	105.3	482	12.9%	10.4%	.298	4.96	4.94	127	128
P.J. Walters	107.7	483	15.3%	9.1%	.295	5.02	4.82	128	124
Darin Gorski	109.7	490	17.8%	9.6%	.291	5.09	5.04	130	130
Erik Davis	46.7	210	19.0%	11.4%	.297	4.44	4.45	114	115
Scott McGregor	110.7	496	12.9%	8.1%	.292	5.12	5.10	131	132
Boone Whiting	103.0	470	15.5%	10.9%	.294	5.16	5.14	132	133
Nick Lee	50.0	235	21.3%	17.0%	.292	4.68	4.98	120	129
Tim Alderson	60.0	267	15.4%	7.9%	.297	5.10	4.90	130	126
Bryan Harper	48.7	226	15.5%	12.8%	.294	5.18	5.30	132	137

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer	212.3	10.56	2.42	0.64	145	6.2	Tom Seaver
Stephen Strasburg	169.7	10.29	1.96	0.85	133	4.5	Javier Vazquez
Gio Gonzalez	162.7	8.85	3.48	0.61	113	3.2	Shawn Estes
Doug Fister	132.3	6.39	1.77	0.88	105	2.2	Bill Wegman
Tanner Roark	141.3	6.11	2.10	0.89	105	2.1	Jeff Heathcock
Joe Ross	135.3	7.45	2.59	0.93	100	1.9	Wade Miller
A.J. Cole	133.7	6.93	2.36	1.28	96	1.6	Brian Rose
Austin Voth	133.3	7.90	3.17	1.01	96	1.5	Jason Bell
Lucas Giolito	119.0	8.17	3.33	1.06	95	1.4	Rafael Soriano
Taylor Jordan	97.0	6.12	2.32	0.74	97	1.3	Ron Reed
Jonathan Papelbon	56.7	7.78	1.90	0.79	128	0.9	Jeff Shaw
Blake Treinen	76.7	8.45	3.40	0.59	118	0.9	Ruddy Lugo
Yusmeiro Petit	93.3	8.10	1.83	1.25	96	0.9	Milt Hill
Shawn Kelley	52.0	11.08	3.12	0.69	131	0.8	Rich Croushore
Rafael Martin	51.7	10.79	2.96	0.87	123	0.7	Rich DeLucia
Aaron Barrett	43.3	10.39	2.70	0.62	133	0.7	Rich Garces
Felipe Rivero	56.3	7.99	2.72	0.64	121	0.6	Steve Howe
Taylor Hill	138.0	5.09	1.96	1.11	85	0.6	Ryan Cox
Oliver Perez	46.7	10.79	3.47	0.77	118	0.6	Tim Byrdak
Mitch Lively	86.3	7.09	4.48	0.83	88	0.5	Jarod Juelsgaard
Paolo Espino	129.7	6.73	2.36	1.39	82	0.4	Steve Ellsworth
Bruce Billings	111.3	6.23	2.91	1.05	84	0.4	Jason Roach
Craig Stammen	60.0	7.65	2.70	0.60	107	0.4	Mike Koplove
Sammy Solis	44.3	6.50	2.84	0.61	100	0.4	Jim Roland
Matt Grace	67.7	6.51	3.06	0.53	104	0.4	Jim Roland
Trevor Gott	71.3	6.82	3.66	0.63	102	0.4	Julio DePaula
Matt Thornton	32.0	6.19	2.53	0.56	115	0.3	Hank Aguirre
Casey Janssen	44.0	6.95	1.84	0.82	105	0.3	Jose Bautista
Evan Meek	67.0	6.45	4.03	0.81	90	0.1	Hal Elliott
Abel de los Santos	59.7	7.99	2.86	1.21	95	0.1	Julio Mateo
Sam Runion	59.3	6.98	3.19	0.91	94	0.0	Cary Hiles
Juan Gutierrez	58.7	6.75	2.91	0.92	93	0.0	Bob Scanlan
Aaron Laffey	111.7	4.83	3.38	0.97	79	0.0	Chris Peters
Stephen Shackleford	57.7	7.80	4.68	0.78	92	0.0	Edwardo Sierra
Matt Spann	105.3	5.30	4.27	0.94	78	-0.1	Matt Coenen
P.J. Walters	107.7	6.18	3.68	1.17	77	-0.2	Ryan Jensen
Darin Gorski	109.7	7.14	3.86	1.39	76	-0.2	Corey Lee
Erik Davis	46.7	7.71	4.63	0.96	87	-0.2	James Warden
Scott McGregor	110.7	5.20	3.25	1.30	75	-0.3	Mike Heathcott
Boone Whiting	103.0	6.38	4.46	1.22	75	-0.3	Nick Skuse
Nick Lee	50.0	9.00	7.20	0.90	83	-0.3	Jonathan Price
Tim Alderson	60.0	6.15	3.15	1.35	76	-0.4	Ivan Maldonado
Bryan Harper	48.7	6.47	5.36	1.11	75	-0.6	Carl Keliipuleole

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.