The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.
Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.
In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.
*****
Greg Allen, CF, Cleveland (Profile)
Between last Friday (the day on which the previous edition of the Five was published) and yesterday afternoon (when the author composed the bulk of the present document), Allen produced a line that was simultaneously promising and underwhelming. Promising like this: over 17 plate appearances, Allen recorded a 3:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio while also reaching base twice by means of a hit-by-pitch. Which is to say, even before accounting for batted balls, Allen had already reached base on 29% of his plate appearances. Unfortunately, after accounting for batted balls, his numbers didn’t improve by much. One hit over 10 official at-bats led to a slash line of .100/.400/.100 for Allen. So far as outcomes are concerend, that’s not great. But outcomes at High-A are much less important than the process by which they’re produced. And Allen’s process is marked by a variety of skills, including contact and discipline and speed and defense and modest power. Whatever the process, it led to a very impressive outcome on Thursday night. Batting leadoff against the Cubs’ High-A affiliate, Allen recorded four hits — including a double and home run — in five plate appearances (box).
Read the rest of this entry »