Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning (for me, anyway) everyone. Let’s talk about baseball.

Gary: How did Rutherford fall all the way to the Yankees? Is there a risk he won’t sign?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are a lot of questions about Rutherford, why he fell and if he’s signable. Rutherford was one of the prospects that teams were trying to move back into the 30s/40s for an overslot deal as part of a bigger class. The Yankees put an end to that.

Eric A Longenhagen: Is he signable? Yes, but I think that the Yankees drafted Nick Solak last night is an indication that it’s going to take some maneuvering to ensure they get it done.

Nick: How do you feel/justify the White Sox selection of Zack Collins over Kyle Lewis at #10?

Eric A Longenhagen: They probably just didn’t feel as good about Lewis’ chances of hitting as other teams. Sox had an interesting draft. They might have the first hitter and pitcher from this draft to debut in the Majors. I like Collins, the approach is incredible, but he doesn’t catch for me.

Travis: What’s the reason for Nolan Jones falling to the second round? Are he and Benson both singable for Cleveland?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t heard a specific reason. Yes, think they can get both of them done.

Jake : Sounds like Tim Anderson is getting the call soon. What’re your thoughts on him? Seems like an extreme K-BB ratio but some really good tools. Do you believe he’ll stick at shortstop in the bigs?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he stays at shortstop but I don’t think he’s up for good and expect there to be some Major League growing pains even once he is.

AJ Preller: What the hell am I doing?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a method to your madness but your draft class is looking incredibly risky. It sure is fun, though.

Nick: BPA for day 2? Any players remaining with large known bonus demands?

Eric A Longenhagen: So, there’s some buzz that NorCal prep righty Jared Horn (Cal commit) might be tough to sign at this point but some teams still have overslot money. Philly has at least an extra million to throw around, so I still think some of these guys get done. If I had to pick a guy who didn’t sign? Drew Mendoza.

Eric A Longenhagen: Other BPA for today: Bryson Brigman, Heath Quinn, Jameson Fisher…there are a ton of really interesting dudes left.

Nick: Do you believe that the White Sox can unlock Alec Hanson, and develop him into a frontline starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think even developing him into a fourth or fifth starter would be an act of god.

AJ Preller: What are the chances Groome signs? 7M for their bonus pool, and he’s thought to want at least 5M

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he signs. Very little leverage, next year’s class is better…lot of external factors working against Groome right now.

Andy: Would a healthy Jeffries be a top 20 pick? Can he mature to be a poor man’s Sonny Gray?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, he might have been the second college arm off the board. Doesn’t comp to Gray. Jefferies is a changeup guy, not curveball.

Alex Bregman: Are minor league ball parks smaller? It feels like my home runs are hit out of little league parks (or is it the camera angle)? Bonus question: When do I make my big league appearance?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, you’re just vaporizing everything right now. I do think you’re up soon and I think it’s at shortstop. Or at least, after what I saw defensively from Corrrea here in Arizona last week, I’d let you play there.

maud: What was your best pick of the draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: I didn’t make any, but I thought the draft’s best pick was Kyle Lewis.

Sean: Have you heard anything about who the Phils may take at 3-1?

Eric A Longenhagen: No but I heard their guys were holed up in the draft room last night until like 2am so I expect that they’ve done more math and will do some creative things today.

Dynasty Dummy: Is CJ Hinjosa for real or a function of the west coast?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tough one. Hinojosa was a big time prospect when he went to Texas and then his body went waaaay backwards and he suddenly had no position. If he’s either gotten into better shape and it’s changed things then yeah, it might be real. But you’re right to be skeptical because of the Cal League.

JKD: What to make of Brian Goodwin? After a very good 2013 season at AA at age 22, he seemed to be on the fast track – and then scuffled at AAA in 2014, did even worse in a repeat of AA in 2015… and now after a good winter in Venezuela, this year is back in AAA and seemingly has found a serious power stroke while running a much lower K rate than in the past (though he’d gotten that under control in 2015). Some of it is BABIP-fueled (.369 right now) but he seems like maybe he’s taken a leap. He’s only 25 still – what’s his ceiling? Starter, 4th OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I really liked Goodwin in the past. Thought he’d hit enough to play everyday, even if he’d only be a fringe regular. I think he’s made some adjustments that have allowed him to hit what he’s seeing at Triple-A but reports on the way the swing looks are basically the same as last year.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a chance I see him later this month, so check back.

Ben WMD: What’s with prospect names these days? AJ Puk? Mickey Moniak? In my day, ballplayers had names like Thrump Gruntworthy. Kids today….

Eric A Longenhagen: We haven’t even begun to scratch the surface.

Chris: What is your opinion of Dylan Cease? Keith Law had him at #91 in his top 100 in February. The word about him so far this year has been he has looked great. Is he a front of the rotation type arm?

Eric A Longenhagen: Cease is one of those arms the Cubs were able to sign because they went underslot with Kyle Schwarber. The develop of his delivery has been really incredible.

Eric A Longenhagen: That was a guy who had one of the worst head whacks scouts had ever seen and now he’s maintained his mid to upper 90s velo but is throwing strikes.

Eric A Longenhagen: Last summer, the secondaries were very inconsistent but things look better there as well. Talked to a scout who didn’t like him last year but has come around based on the changes he’s made this spring.

Eric A Longenhagen: Do I think he has top of the rotation potential? Not so willing to throw that word around for him, but maybe just beneath that.

jon: Jeimer Candelario recently promoted to AAA by the Cubs. What’s your view on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Love the bat, can’t find a position for him.

El Guapo: Your write up on Urias seemed to focus some on the lack of projectability for his frame (short stocky guy). I understand that point at 5′ 10″ but there is a lot of talk that he might be all the way up to 6’2″ (understandable for a 19yo to keep growing). Understanding the mistakes so far have been up, indicating he still lacks downward plane on his pitches, but does the potential for a couple more inches and more leverage on his pitches change your view at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so. There was much ado about his height after I posted that article. I’m 5-10, I’ve stood next to the kid on the backfields and he’s about my height. Unless my Vans are adding more than I realize, that kid is south of six feet. Does it really matter? No. His stuff is good and once he gets that delivery on line (he’s been very frustrating to watch so far) and throwing strikes, he’ll be fine.

Zonk: What is your take on the possibility of an IFA draft? Would such a draft unfairly reward teams that have not made significant investments in the DR?

Eric A Longenhagen: In general, I find the idea of the draft pretty repulsive, so I’m against an International one. I also have no idea how the hell they’d pull it off, infrastructure-wise.

Zonk: Is the big rush of Cubans coming to the US just the beginning, or is it nearing it’s end? When will Cuba just become another development center like the Dominican or Venezuela?

Eric A Longenhagen: The well is pretty dry there. There are still some guys that could make an impact in MLB (Victor Victor is one. Told you we’ve just scratched the surface) but most of them have defected over the last few years.

Eric A Longenhagen: Why? Because normalized relations between the US and Cuba are coming and most everyone I’ve talked to expects some sort of posting system similar to the one in place with Korea, which is good for the Cuban government and MLB owners but bad for players’ earning power. That’s part of what’s been the catalyst for this recent exodus: guys getting off the island while they can still get paid.

Joe: Did the Orioles get a nice value with Sedlock at 27? What’s his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I thought it was fine. I liked Dakota Hudson better but his stuff backed up late in the year and some are worried he’s hurt. Sedlock will show you 95, he throws strikes and the secondaries are solid average. Nothing to miss bats and not sure he has a real way of getting out left-handed hitters right now. He could be a fourth or fifth starter, and that’s about what you can expect as the profile of a late first rounder.

Zonk: Best minor league mascot? I always liked the Biscuits, because who doesn’t like a buttery biscuit?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you. Any mascot that is something consumable is automatically plus.

RedsAlert: With Iglesias going to the pen, do you think Cody Reed or Robert Stephenson (or both) will be called up soon? Who do you like better, both ROS and long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure which of them Cincy would have a look at first but I like Reed better, both long and short term.

bryan: Hi Eric, I am sure most of this will be draft related but please allow me to venture into the high minors. Tyler O’Neill and Hunter Renfroe both appear to be having breakout seasons. What do you see as the MLB potential of each? Is their power legitimate or more a function of jumping on mistake pitches that they won’t see at the MLB level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Everyone is kind of in wait-and-see mode with Renfroe right now. O’Neil though, is climbing. He’s rumored to be a frequent target for trades this July.

Q-Ball: How bullish are you on Willson Contreras offensively? He is demolishing AAA after raking all of last year. Are we talking all-star level offense?

Eric A Longenhagen: We’re certainly talking All Star level physical talent. I’ve never seen that kind of explosiveness from a catcher before.

Chris: Who has the best combination of hit + power tools in the minors right now?

Eric A Longenhagen: A great question and my default answer to that for the past 18 months had been Nomar Mazara and I haven’t really stewed over this question in my own head since his call-up.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Austin Meadows is a candidate.

RJ: You mentioned last night on twitter that you just dont get the Joe Rizzo buzz. What about his game bothers you the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not a good athlete, no position (and I actually think he could be passable at 3B but the industry, in general, does not) body has no projection so you can’t really project power and he doesn’t have any in games right now. Sounds like Brett Wallace to me.

Sean C: Do you have a ‘biggest surprise’ in this draft so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lowe at 13 was the one that officially put me behind during our live analysis over at ESPN.

Justin: Lots of mixed opinions and hot takes on the Cardinals Day 1 picks. What are your thoughts? Seems to me like they took some much needed risks

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m out on Connor Jones, but I liked the other three picks, even Carlson.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think that what we saw from St. Louis last night is not nearly what anyone, even the Cardinals, thought was going to happen. I think Perez fell to them and they made a decision they didn’t think they’d have to.

Zorak: Thoughts on the Mets taking two college arms? With their system light on advanced pitchers, was this a draft of need for them? Preparing for Life After Harvey?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like both Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay. Dunn might just be getting started: NE arm with limited miles and limited reps because of cold weather and the bullpen, crazy athlete….

Eric A Longenhagen: Guys like that come on late.

Eric A Longenhagen: Kay is a bulldog, flashes plus changeup, might not have the physicality to start.

Eric A Longenhagen: Do I think they were actively hunting college arms specifically in anticipation of losing Harvey? No, but they’re more prepared for that now than they were before.

Guest: Lucas Erceg was pegged as a tough evaluation considering his level of competition last year. What is your take on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Huge talent, fell in part because of off-field issues.

Randy Savage: Would you say the Braves plan was a success last night? Risky proposition to pass on some of the early names available and hope that players fall to you.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the Braves successfully executed the plan they had in place, but don’t know if it’s the course I would have taken if I were in their position. On paper, the class looks great so far.

Mike: Just how good can Benson actually be? Odd pick from the industry eye by the Indians, what do you think they see out of him to select him 14th?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rare physicality, plus bat speed, plus raw power, great athlete. Swing is a mess and its undergone several iteration just in the last year or so. But the fact that he’s shown an ability to make adjustments, even though they’ve been bad, is encouraging. Can’t wait to see him in the AZL.

Shawn: What are the character concerns on Jason Groome? Feel like whatever they are, they are overstated – kid’s only 17yo

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say that there are issues and some of them are definitely of the, “Come one, he’s 17” ilk while others are not. Those latter issues are not so bad that I’d just take the kid off the board, but they’d give me pause and force me to sit down with the kid and learn about him. I will also say that some of what was circulating in the industry about him was absolute BS and teams were trying to Marino him down toward their pick, which I think is despicable.

repre: have u seen Orimoloeye in ext. spring training? if so, is he improving his contact ability?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have and not really. No hand separation. Looks like they’ve over simplified things.

Baloo: Does Jacoby Jones threaten Mike Aviles job sometime this season? Should he?

Eric A Longenhagen: I put a 35 on Jones last year during Fall League. Think he can play serviceable defense in a few different spots and maybe hit lefties a little bit. Not enough to profile as a regular, more of an up and down or low end UTIL for me.

Brett: Could you provide a quick scouting report on Taylor Trammell?

Eric A Longenhagen: Crazy athlete (go look up his football stats from last fall) and has more baseball feel then the typical “Athlete we’re teaching to play baseball”, 7 runner, potentially special defender in CF.

JKD: Victor Robles is obliterating A-ball in basically the exact same manner he obliterated A- and Rookie leagues, and is 19. Does he get the bump to AA this year? Is it crazy to think that he might be a callup candidate next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s a real chance he’s in Double-A in a few weeks and if he keeps vaporizing everything in front of him? Yeah, next year might be when he arrives, even if it’s just for some coffee.

Thwip: Jharel Cotton: what do you think?

Eric A Longenhagen: Low to mid-90s, plus changeup, breaking ball and cutter work well enough for me that I think he has a starter’s repertoire. I though he’d throw more strikes than this, but I still think he’s a superior rotation option to say, Bolsinger, even right now. I’m high on him compared to the industry, though.

apj: What’s wrong with Monte Harrison? Too soon to call him a bust?

Eric A Longenhagen: No idea. Thought he looked incredible this spring. Definitely too soon to toss him prospectdom in a coffin.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s it for me today as the draft is about to get underway again soon. Thanks for the questions everyone and have a good weekend. Live reaction to today’s happenings will be on Twitter and over at ESPN.com