2017 World Series Game 1 Live Blog
5:02 |
: Hello friends
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5:02 |
|
5:02 |
: I’ll be joined any minute now by the delightful insightful Eno Sarris!
|
5:02 |
: You also will be joined by him
|
5:02 |
: Crazy ass fireworks headed straight for the planes I about ducked like on a foul ball straight back to the plate.
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5:03 |
|
5:03 |
: Hello Jeff! Let’s root for none of my organs to fail during this chat!
|
5:03 |
: Who’s ready to overreact to small samples and create some narratives???
|
5:03 |
: oooh oooh me first. Josh Reddick booed into a bad series! Did I do it right?
|
5:04 |
: Hello fro Germany!
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5:04 |
|
5:04 |
: Ah, the fall classic. Love those crisp breezes and the hint of chill in the air that lets you know that fall in on the way.
|
5:04 |
: 100 degrees
|
5:04 |
: Fangraphs is two words?!?
|
5:05 |
: so good we had to split it like in Blackjack
|
5:05 |
Who are you rooting for?
Astros (43.1% | 73 votes)
Dodgers (30.7% | 52 votes)
No one? (26.0% | 44 votes)
Total Votes: 169
|
5:05 |
Who do you think is going to win this game?
Astros (16.8% | 27 votes)
Dodgers (75.6% | 121 votes)
No one? (7.5% | 12 votes)
Total Votes: 160
|
5:06 |
: which analytics group is this?
|
5:06 |
: obviously not one that understands Kershaw’s slider right
|
5:07 |
: Eno how brutal is the heat in the stadium? I can barely move a few miles inland
|
5:07 |
: Do you ever stop and wonder whether we might know more about Kershaw’s slider than he does
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5:07 |
|
5:07 |
: Jeff,,,,, thanks.
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5:08 |
: You know, Verlander’s slider got away from him by mistake. It can happen!
|
5:08 |
: Same time these guys are judging their stuff on results and the bigger slider has better results. I’m betting he didn’t like that I mentioned his back.
|
5:08 |
: I’m sure he’d prefer to just not have to answer anything from anyone
|
5:08 |
: that too
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5:08 |
|
5:09 |
: Everyone think about the Rays!
|
5:09 |
: You have 2 minutes
|
5:09 |
: Do MLB players have higher rates of baldness? ex: John Smoltz?
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5:09 |
: I really think hats all the time is bad for follicles but I’m not a scientist.
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5:09 |
: Eno: Can Jeff handle the ludes?
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5:10 |
|
5:10 |
: Key thing to watch tonight: How often Dallas Keuchel complains to the umpire about his zone
|
5:10 |
: Nothing quite like an evenly-matched World Series game to get all the analytical eyes on the periphery of the strike zone
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5:11 |
: Loved how Lindbergh researched Keuchel vs. chasers and disciplined hitters, incidentally
|
5:11 |
: Intuitive and bright!
|
5:11 |
: Why are you in this chat if you’re at the game?
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5:11 |
|
5:11 |
: First pitch swing for Springer. I expect a lot of those from the Astros in this game
|
5:12 |
: Kershaw’s hair already looks drenched
|
5:12 |
: It’s been three pitches
|
5:12 |
: Can I win today with the ‘what analytics group do you work for slider?
|
5:12 |
: 91 today. Of course he can win, but it’s better at 87-88.
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5:13 |
|
5:13 |
: As a sportswriter, what’s your X factor when it comes to writing about X factors?
|
5:13 |
: desperation
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5:13 |
: x em out
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5:13 |
: I can’t think of any FA-to-be on either team. Oh wait, Beltran.
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5:13 |
: Darvish!
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5:14 |
|
5:14 |
: ooh the t word
|
5:14 |
: Also, two-thirds of men start to lose their hair at some point. Happens to most of us!
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5:14 |
: YOU SHUT YOUR FACE
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5:14 |
: I’m way ahead of you Sarris
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5:15 |
: When does Bregman move to short?
|
5:15 |
: Isn’t he really nice with the glove?
|
5:15 |
: You guys doing a live blog for every game of the series?
|
5:15 |
: Not us specifically, but FanGraphs, yes. Dave will be chatting tomorrow
|
5:15 |
: Dave also has a potential G7. I’d have a potential G6
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5:16 |
: Pedroia has the greatest Baseball Scalp of all time.
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5:16 |
: Speaking of balding: pedroia has the worst hair in baseball
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5:16 |
: I don’t think you can count ‘no’ as the ‘worst.’
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5:16 |
: Quick number for you analytics guys out there: Kershaw’s on pace for 27 Ks
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5:16 |
: Pedroia is baseball’s Ryan Getzlaf
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5:17 |
: Or the other way around. I don’t care
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5:17 |
: Who has a better chance of getting back to the world series next year?
|
5:17 |
: Dodgers
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5:17 |
: Is there any reasonable argument that Altuve is, in fact, “the game’s best hitter right now”?
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5:17 |
: Yes, if you consider that only these two teams are still playing
|
5:17 |
: ball’s flying
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5:18 |
: For the benefit of the chat room, remember that Eno is at the game, seeing things live, and I’m probably like a solid minute behind
|
5:18 |
: For example, Eno was a minute ahead of me in seeing Chris Taylor take the first pitch yard!
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5:18 |
: I tried not to spoiler!
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5:18 |
: Don’t worry about it!
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5:19 |
: 447 ft!
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5:19 |
: Astros are done. Should they forfeit the series so they can save bullets in their pitchers’ arms for next year?
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5:19 |
: Imagine telling someone that Chris Taylor would hit a leadoff homer in the World Series back in April
|
5:19 |
: well that was easy
|
5:19 |
: Who is better over the next 5 years: Altuve, Correa, Seager? Leaning towards Correa
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5:20 |
: For me, it’s Correa
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5:20 |
: Altuve oldest, right?
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5:20 |
: Seager seems like a bit more conventional in terms of strikeout rate, power.
|
5:20 |
: By like four years
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5:21 |
: Correa, I think, could still blossom into the game’s best hitter
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5:21 |
: Which player on either team is most likely to pass out due to excessive heat?
|
5:21 |
: How can a team with such a large payroll and the best front office in baseball be so damn likable?
|
5:21 |
: Plurality of this room is rooting for the Astros!
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5:21 |
2) I don’t know how to judge likable. |
5:22 |
: There is no measure of likability. Everything is personal
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5:22 |
: Eno, you might be at the game, but I bet Jeff has less pants on than you.
|
5:22 |
: *fewer
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5:22 |
: I always wear pants to work
|
5:22 |
: It is not unpleasant to wear pants
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5:23 |
: Nobody post spoilers for Eno in case their feed is a bit ahead of real life
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5:23 |
: Sometimes I do feel like my own reality is a little ahead of Eno’s real life
|
5:23 |
: What’s the best strategy for batting against Kershaw?
|
5:23 |
: Swing early and pray
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5:24 |
: Really psyched for the Keuchel/Kike matchup, just for onomatopoeia reasons.
|
5:24 |
: Imagine if Keuchel kicked a ball from Kiké and couldn’t cap the inning.
|
5:24 |
: You underestimate Eno’s love of going pantsless
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5:24 |
: I am not wearing pants
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5:25 |
: I was so not prepared for that hot pants take by Jeff
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5:25 |
: To be clear it was not a hot pants take
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5:25 |
: I do not have a take on wearing hot pants
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5:25 |
: I do: I don’t.
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5:25 |
: Since I don’t work for an analytics group, I’ll embarrass myself and ask: what is the “depth” of a slider?
|
5:25 |
: Just how far it drops!
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5:26 |
: Good job by Keuchel to end the inning against Puig — fell behind 2-and-0 but still got him to swing at a pitch just off the border for the easy out
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5:26 |
: Still, another first-pitch take for Puig! 34 out of 36 in the playoffs
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5:26 |
: 50 out of his last 52
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5:26 |
: I believe that term is actually “alliteration”. Onomoatopeia is when a word sounds like a sound, like “splash”
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5:26 |
: Are you sure you haven’t seen a Kiké Kiké tho
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5:28 |
: someone took a pitch, pushing Kershaw to…. ten pitches.
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5:28 |
: 3 of 4 first-pitch swings so far for the Astros
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5:29 |
: And then Gurriel takes a heater right over the middle
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5:29 |
: And another one!
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5:29 |
: Does anyone know who runs the Past Fangraphs Twitter?
|
5:29 |
: Look for whoever the first follower was
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5:30 |
: Do you get a meal at the game, Eno? Or are you expected to pack your own? In that case, do you bring any food or just beer?
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5:30 |
: Voucher. bought sushi because I’m not supposed to drink any alcohol or eat anything with fat in it. Zero fat. I’m sure sushi has fat don’t at me.
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5:30 |
: Gurriel wasn’t in the mood for middle-plate fastballs I guess
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5:31 |
: watch him hit a curve out later
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5:31 |
: Kershaw is *all over* the kneecaps right now
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5:31 |
: We’re through one and a half! On pace for an actual fast ballgame!
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5:32 |
: Kershaw is at 15 strikes out of 19 pitches. 11 fastballs, six sliders, two curves
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5:32 |
: Jose Altuve looks like a leprechaun sent to steal your first child.
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5:33 |
: I think he’s cute.
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5:33 |
: also ruggedly handsome and a great big strong ballplayer, but cute.
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5:33 |
: Way more glove-side fastballs for Kershaw early. Seems like a pretty clear plan
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5:34 |
: I’m here in LA and it sucked to walk to my car today. Can’t imagine playing baseball right now.
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5:34 |
: Now imagine playing for the Rangers
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5:34 |
: Zero fat isn’t reasonable!
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5:34 |
: No beer?? Aw man I’m so sorry Eno
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5:34 |
: not for life, just for now.
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5:34 |
How long is this series going?
4 (4.8% | 13 votes)
5 (20.0% | 54 votes)
6 (55.5% | 150 votes)
7 (19.6% | 53 votes)
Total Votes: 270
|
5:35 |
: Generous call for Keuchel there against Kike. Good sign for Houston!
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5:35 |
: Line drive a worse sign for Houston
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5:35 |
: I wish that I had used the accent mark
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5:35 |
: uh take a look at this slide
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5:37 |
: lol @ the astros. these rednecks ’bout to get swept
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5:37 |
: Do you think that players are from the city where the team is from
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5:37 |
: More Reddick boos. Interleague drama through the roof
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5:38 |
: Smoltz just called Kiké “keekee”
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5:38 |
: That was a fast inning. Two in the books! 1-0 Dodgers still. I don’t know how Forsythe popped that pitch up but here we are
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5:38 |
: Up close how tall is Altuve? I maintain he’s not 5’6”
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5:39 |
: Think I’ve heard he’s actually like 5’2 but I’ll let Eno take this
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5:39 |
: Pretty sure he’s taller than my wife I’ll have to hug him to be sure though.
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5:39 |
: You better have a hell of an interview
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5:39 |
: I’ve heard Chone Figgins was also barely five feet
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5:40 |
: How do you counter the chatter that my son has pitched poorly in post-season?
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5:40 |
: Wait a few innings.
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5:40 |
: Keuchel leaving that 89 mph heater up in the zone a lot so far
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5:41 |
: Sometimes I think he has to do that just to keep hitters from completely leaning over for one target
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5:41 |
: Agreed. Morton told me similar yesterday.
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5:42 |
: <3 Charlie Morton
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5:42 |
: Savant has the hit probability on Taylor’s HR at 91%. In what scenario is a ball hit 447 not a hit?
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5:42 |
: Not all balls at that angle and velo are 447. Temperature, spray angle matter too.
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5:42 |
: Why do comments like john Cale’s get through the screener?
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5:42 |
: So we can make fun of them
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5:42 |
: Holy god damn is that a curveball
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5:43 |
: Ugh put that thing in a museum
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5:43 |
: Definite audible ‘awwwww’ after that one.
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5:44 |
: Do shorter players suffer from wacky strike zones as Judge does, or do they benefit?
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5:44 |
: As someone who’s 5’5 that’s not as tall as you think. 5’2 is nothing
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5:44 |
: I don’t think they actually suffer. I don’t think Judge suffers. They get the same strike zones they’ve always gotten as ballplayers. They’re just not the normal strike zones relative to their stances
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5:44 |
: I’m 5’7 and I’ve stood next to Altuve and he’s not 5’6
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5:44 |
: Pretty sure they’ll think you’re trying to kidnap Altuve, Eno
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5:44 |
: Puig is not thaaaaat much of a free swinger, right? Announcers have been acting like he is usually Corey Dickerson or somebody like that
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5:44 |
: That’s an old rep. He’s still kind of aggressive, but not out of control
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5:45 |
: How much has the Taco Bell “Steal a Base – Steal a Taco” promotion changed the strategy in the World Series these last few years?
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5:45 |
: Will LA change their mind about Reddick if he steals a base here?
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5:46 |
: Keuchel with some great accidental takes here with two strikes
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5:46 |
: AL pitchers with the bat smdh
|
5:46 |
: Ah the ol foul bunt strikeout
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5:47 |
: League leader this year was a four-way tie with three foul-bunt strikeouts each
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5:47 |
: (four pitchers)
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5:49 |
: Girlfriend came home and just like that the inning ended. OK! Springer has struck out twice, on seven pitches, getting zero balls
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5:50 |
: Kershaw’s at 26 out of 35 strikes, with 21 fastballs and 10 sliders
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5:51 |
: I’ve never watched a pitcher so intently as I am watching Kershaw to see when he whips out this 3/4 delivery
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5:51 |
: What’s so interesting about it is it’s still not clear it’s actually a good or useful idea!
|
5:51 |
: Hot take: Kershaw has a good curveball
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5:52 |
: I have a really off-topic bone to pick real quick with Jeff. Jeff, in last week’s chat you said you wouldn’t want to manage the Nationals because you hate being around alphas. I understand what you mean, but aren’t you downplaying your own alpha-ness? You’re tall, handsome, smart, moderately athletic (guessing because you hike and played baseball in high school), and you talk confidently..you can’t deny that you probably appear to others to be an alpha
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5:52 |
: I assure you that in person I do not come off that way
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5:52 |
: Especially in a room full of professional baseball players!
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5:53 |
: I’m doing something stupid, but if it works might be fun.
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5:53 |
: Austin Barnes so good. Not often a starting catcher is replaced in the middle of the playoffs
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5:53 |
: Going back to John Cale’s comments, I dont even think Houston would be considered a city that has “hillbillies”. They’re pretty multicultural for a Texas city
|
5:54 |
: That’s definitely one of the other critiques
|
5:54 |
: So many things to critique!
|
5:54 |
: Don’t know where to begin!
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5:54 |
: I think Barnes is *way* better at calling games.
|
5:54 |
: I’m inclined to agree
|
5:54 |
: That is a really good-looking bunt from Kershaw, which is a strange sentence to type
|
5:55 |
: AL pitcher batting stances are fascinating to me, I’d read a blog that was just a collection of gifs of them at the plate
|
5:55 |
: There was that time Trevor Bauer batted while mimicking the stances of some of his teammates
|
5:55 |
: Are NL pitchers better at bunting than AL pitchers?
|
5:55 |
: I haven’t checked but yes
|
5:55 |
: dammit I have audio of that kershaw strikeout last inning and can’t find a way to bring it to you.
|
5:55 |
: They’re a little better at everything
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5:55 |
: KEEP TRYING
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5:56 |
: Why are they booing Reddick? Because he played in Oakland? Thought LA fans hated SF, not IAK
|
5:56 |
: Because Reddick briefly played with the Dodgers last year and was bad
|
5:56 |
: just seemed relevant to the how loud is it convo
|
5:56 |
: There’s an obnoxious line-drive double play for Chris Taylor. We’re through three in 40-odd minutes! It’s a playoff miracle!
|
5:57 |
: Is it a little weird to you guys that Grandal can’t get off the bench now
|
5:57 |
: Barnes does basically everything he does behind the plate and he also hits too
|
5:58 | : The projections have the odds for the series pretty much coin flip, yet even places with smart people like CBS have every analyst picking the Dodgers in less than 7 ( |
5:58 |
: Recency bias, probably
|
5:58 |
: Puig had a 11.2% BB rate and a 17.5% K rate. He might not always have the best plan of attack, but those are not free swinger rates.
|
5:58 |
: Hasn’t been a true hacker since he was a rookie
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5:59 |
: Which Astros pitcher would you most like to hit a double?
|
5:59 |
: Francisco Liriano
|
5:59 |
: Because it’s hard to imagine the circumstances in which he’d play and bat in the first place
|
5:59 |
: How much of an advantage do the pitcher have tonight since neither team has really faced either pitcher?
|
5:59 |
: I don’t think unfamiliarity benefits either side more than the other
|
6:00 |
: Kenley’s cutter or Kershaw’s slider – which is better?
|
6:00 |
: ball: thrown back. important reportage here.
|
6:00 |
: Kenley’s cutter, specifically because he’s still so dominant despite throwing it all the time
|
6:00 |
: Bregman, gone, middle-middle fastball
|
6:00 |
: Hence the message from Eno above!
|
6:01 |
: poops. I waited!
|
6:01 |
: Bregman good
|
6:01 |
: bragman
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6:01 |
: I AM THE BREGMAN. I AM THE WALRUS.
|
6:01 |
: Barnes double-pumped the throw-back after that breaking ball
|
6:01 |
: Thought he had the strike call
|
6:02 |
: Altuve has gotten a couple fortunate ball calls in this AB already
|
6:02 |
: Low strike for strike three! Surprise!
|
6:03 |
: That runs counter to the very post I published this afternoon!
|
6:03 |
: What happened to Alex Wood in the 2nd half? Fatigue? Injury?
|
6:03 |
: Yes
|
6:03 |
: Clearly the Dodgers don’t think he’s too hurt, since he’s pitching. But he doesn’t have the early-season zip. Might not have the body to maintain for six or seven months
|
6:04 |
: There’s another one of those beautiful curveballs. Good god
|
6:04 |
: Do either of you have any actual rooting interest here?
|
6:04 |
: Not that has yet emerged
|
6:05 |
: You don’t even have over-the-air Fox, Jeff?
|
6:05 |
: Haven’t bothered. Streaming is fine
|
6:05 |
: Altuve
|
6:05 |
: Sorry was trying to enter my password
|
6:05 |
: Gurriel down again, but at least it was swinging this time. 1-1! Through 3.5
|
6:06 |
: does saying that unfamiliarity doesn’t benefit either side more somewhat contradict the TTO penalty? or at least, the part of TTO that is borne out by hitters getting more looks at a guy
|
6:06 |
: There’s in-game familiarity and there’s familiarity from some other week or month or season. I don’t think the latter means much of anything. So I don’t think the absence of it means much of anything
|
6:07 |
: Is the playoff run environment just good pitching beating good hitting, or an just an overwhelming amount of good pitching?
|
6:07 |
: The pitching is better, relative to the average, than the hitting is. So there’s good hitting, but great pitching
|
6:07 |
: Think of it as something like 110 wRC+ vs. 80 ERA-
|
6:08 |
: Bregman has 3 postseason HRs. 2 vs Sale and 1 vs Kershaw
|
6:08 |
: Kershaw finally in a World Series, so next guy I need to see is Vottomatic
|
6:09 |
: I really want to see what would happen if Kershaw just threw curveballs for an inning.
|
6:09 |
: What are Correa’s chances of becoming the best player in baseball at some point in his career?
|
6:09 |
: 10-20%?
|
6:09 | : This is just so stupid looking, and I don’t want to explain why, but if there’s sound maybe it’s worth it: |
6:09 |
: Jeff really dropping the almighty’s name tonight. Having an existential crisis?
|
6:09 |
: I have a limited range of exclamations
|
6:09 |
: that was last inning’s inning-ending strikeout.
|
6:10 |
: Eno where are you watching from at the ballpark?
|
6:10 |
: Behind home plate, reserve level.
|
6:10 |
: What if Mariners were here Jeff re rooting interest?
|
6:10 |
: I genuinely cannot imagine
|
6:10 |
: Kershaw’s curve will serve him well when the velocity goes away
|
6:10 |
: Drink for Smoltz saying “erect”
|
6:11 |
: BRegman seems like the type Greinke once talked about, the player who is so oblivious and so onvinced of his own invincibility he just plays well without thinking.
|
6:11 |
: Eno – buddy’s in Boston for a month for work. Where does he go for beer?
|
6:12 |
: Night shift is far, but Lord Hobo and Cambridge brewing are close. One more…
|
6:12 |
: I assumed the TTO penalty was largely influenced by fatigue
|
6:12 |
: lamplighter
|
6:12 |
: It’s part fatigue and part seeing all the pitches
|
6:13 |
: Could Kershaw pull a McCullers and just throw his curveball a million times in a row? I don’t think so b/c it’s more sweeping and McCullers is sharper? Please discuss amongst yourselves.
|
6:13 |
: Kershaw’s other stuff is way too good to avoid. McCullers’ curve is a weapon in large part because it’s like 88 miles per hour
|
6:13 |
: McCullers is also like 7 mph faster.
|
6:13 |
: It’s the Kimbrel curve!
|
6:14 |
: Puig took another first pitch btw
|
6:14 |
: Is the relative dominance of pitching to hitting in the postseason a function of this specific group of teams, or is pitching talent more dispersed than hitting in general?
|
6:14 |
: Easier to lean on the best pitchers in the playoffs. Can’t spot when you use your best hitters in the same way
|
6:15 |
: Puig with the weak groundout on a 3-and-1 change down the middle. To the fifth! 1-1
|
6:15 |
: So much for Jeff’s article
|
6:15 |
: If there’s one Astro who’s going to get a big zone, it’s Keuchel. That’s his whole game
|
6:15 |
: Hendricks before Hendricks
|
6:16 |
: That was LOUD, Eno
|
6:16 |
: keuchel not missing many bats or getting many Ks
|
6:16 |
: seee! just talking to my mans Doug Padilla about how it’s become a night club here, more like an NBA arena. The board is loud.
|
6:16 |
: Three swinging strikes so far for Keuchel, five for Kershaw
|
6:16 |
: sorry Jeff. internets not great here.
|
6:16 |
: Don’t worry about it. You’re at the World Series!
|
6:17 |
: Is there anyone who speaks more with his body language while batting than Puig?
|
6:17 |
: Puig taking all the way is the BEST
|
6:17 |
: Eno: What David asked but for Seattle!
|
6:17 |
: Isn’t McCullers’s curveball more like a slider?
|
6:17 |
: It’s slider speed but curveball depth
|
6:17 |
: Holy Mountain (industrial area) and Cloudburst (pike’s place).
|
6:17 |
: Yeah, McCuller’s’ Curve drops like 8 inches more than average slider.
|
6:18 |
: Freaky freaky pitch
|
6:18 |
: How does Keuchel compare to Kyle Hendricks?
|
6:18 |
: Similar command, maybe 70 on the 20-80 scale. Maximizes an underwhelming repertoire
|
6:18 |
: They throw to the spots in the zone that traditionally create the lowest exit velos. 1) Keuchel. 2) Hendricks.
|
6:19 |
: Three pitches, two outs…
|
6:19 |
: so, yeah, command.
|
6:19 |
: Could this games actually end under 3 hours?!?!
|
6:19 |
: Not unless someone takes the lead!
|
6:19 |
: Drop-down strikeout!
|
6:20 |
: idk why teams spend $150M to get to the world series. I found tickets for like $450
|
6:20 |
: Reddick just watched three fastballs for a strikeout. Last one was a drop-down variety in the lower-inside quadrant
|
6:20 |
: Kershaw usually struggles to keep that pitch down
|
6:21 |
: I had a hard time seeing that from up here.
|
6:21 |
: I usually don’t catch it on the delivery but the follow-through is a dead giveaway
|
6:21 |
: Kershaw’s momentum is weird and takes him over toward first base
|
6:22 |
: Reddick isn’t getting booed because he was bad for the Dodgers, he’s getting booed because he’s said bad things about Dodger fans in the media
|
6:22 |
: I just got here back from class. Hopefully we aren’t through 2.5 innings yet…
|
6:22 |
: That also works strongly against him
|
6:22 |
: let me sip some tea and check
|
6:22 |
: is the 20-80 scale appropriate for players who are not prospects? If you’re judging young’uns vs. the mlb population instead of against each other, the numbers go way down?
|
6:22 |
: I was just going for something familiar
|
6:22 |
: You could also just go with A, just shy of A+
|
6:23 |
: The drop down and shut up for Josh Reddick. It’s goodness is 100% the surprise
|
6:23 |
: It usually hasn’t worked out to seem so…surprising. But it’s still evolving, I bet
|
6:23 |
: That drop down strike had to look like 110 mph to Reddick lol
|
6:23 |
: These slomo playoff elbows are GROSS. First CC now Kershaw
|
6:23 |
: Never ever ever look at a pitcher elbow when he’s pitching
|
6:24 |
: it’s the World Series and Kershaw is pitching like Kershaw. eat it, narratives
|
6:24 |
: Well there’s a horrible chase for Hernandez for the strikeout
|
6:24 |
: In that drop-down pitch, did K miss his target, or did Barnes set up the glove to fool Reddick?
|
6:25 |
: Probably missed. Kershaw doesn’t have great command from that arm slot
|
6:25 |
: Keuchel K’s Kiké
|
6:25 |
: Can Fangraphs get passes to MLB game?
|
6:25 |
: Yes
|
6:25 |
: Like, say, Eno right now
|
6:25 |
: Seager with the first-pitch single on a fastball in off the plate
|
6:25 |
: don’t tell me that just happened.
|
6:26 |
: I look forward to whatever you’re talking about!
|
6:26 |
: you guys are falling behind. at this rate I’ll lose you.
|
6:26 |
: Our difference has definitely grown larger than a minute
|
6:27 |
: You going to any of these games, Jeff?
|
6:27 |
: Eno could red herring chat by just typing “OMG” at random moments
|
6:27 |
: No reason to pay for me to do that
|
6:27 |
: Keuchel’s arm is on the ground!! OMG!
|
6:28 |
: Another double play! Three in five innings for LA
|
6:28 |
: Keuchel has thrown 54 pitches. Kershaw just 57. It’s been five frames for each
|
6:28 |
: Should we tell Eno what commercials he is missing?
|
6:29 |
: Keuchel has also evened up the swinging-strike battle, at five
|
6:29 |
: The zone is huge tonight. Any proof that a big zone causes players to swing more in later at bats?
|
6:29 |
: Limited but yes I think so
|
6:29 |
: Have the Dodgers been as aggressive? Would like to know the swing rate. Seems like something I could check.
|
6:30 |
: 44% for the Dodgers
|
6:30 |
: 39% for the Astros
|
6:30 |
: wow that was quick. And that’s p low.
|
6:31 |
: Lower than I thought it was going to be
|
6:31 |
: Is Keuchel throwing a “sinker” or just have some natural drop?
|
6:31 |
: I think it’s a two-seamer with a surprising lack of horizontal tail but Eno might know more off the top of his head
|
6:32 |
: Who has a better chance of repeating his unprecedented 2014 success: Marwin Gonzalez or Chris Taylor?
|
6:32 |
: Taylor
|
6:32 |
: Keuchel with another five-pitch strikeout. He’s actually been more helpful than his teammates in terms of making Kershaw work
|
6:32 |
: Ou are an MLB pitcher. What’s your approach at the plate?
|
6:33 |
: Try to go tank on every pitch like Bumgarner.
|
6:33 |
: Darvish approach but from the far back corner
|
6:33 |
: What is the point of the large amount of towels wrapped around a pitching arm?
|
6:33 |
: Makeshift way to keep an arm warm between innings? All I got
|
6:34 |
: This Clayton Kershaw guy is pretty good.
|
6:34 |
: George Springer definitely doesn’t *look* like a guy with a two-strike approach
|
6:34 |
: nah
|
6:34 |
: This is the pace baseball should always move at.
|
6:34 |
: This all feels weirdly chill and relaxed somehow, like it’s a random Thursday evening in May. Maybe because of the pace? Idk
|
6:35 |
: I think Game 1 is always a little underwhelming in terms of the feeling. The series needs time to build
|
6:35 |
: Also, it’s been all pitching and two solo homers
|
6:35 |
: It’s loud here, but yeah I mean more things could have happened, at least offensively, think of guys on base and stress that way…
|
6:35 |
: The pace of this game is amazing so far.
|
6:35 |
: This is why people aren’t wrong when they complain about baseball usually going too slow
|
6:35 |
: Look what it’s like when it’s fast!
|
6:36 |
: Slow baseball can be great, but fast baseball is *usually* great
|
6:36 |
: I’d like to see more balls in play and baserunners, please.
|
6:36 |
: 73 pitches for Kershaw, and he’s through six
|
6:36 |
: Vasgersian and Buck Martinez are an absolute treat
|
6:37 |
: I love Matt Vasgersian
|
6:37 |
: Have for a while. Such a joy
|
6:37 |
: I know the Dodgers are “good” but are they NL good or like MLB good?
|
6:37 |
: They are a legitimately great baseball team. When Kershaw is healthy, as he appears, they’re a juggernaut
|
6:37 |
: But the Astros are also a juggernaut! Can there be coexisting juggernauts? I don’t know the etymology here
|
6:38 |
: Quickest WS game this century was 152 minutes — 2010 Game 5, Giants 3, Rangers 1, Lincecum def. Lee.
|
6:38 |
: Cliff Lee was the most satisfying pitcher in baseball there for a few years
|
6:38 |
: scully just got a standing o
|
6:38 |
: Surprising that there’s only 2 runs in this heat?
|
6:38 |
: Pitchers > heat
|
6:39 |
: Jeff, were you out on Taylor at the time of his trade or did you think he still had this success in him?
|
6:39 |
: Never thought he had this in him, but that was before we really understood what was happening league-wide. Evaluating middling young hitters now is tremendously difficult
|
6:39 |
: First-pitch out for Barnes. What a game this is!
|
6:40 |
: This game is going to get through 9 innings in 2.5 hours but then go 17 innings just to spite us all
|
6:40 |
: So to confirm: first pitch temperature was 103. Hottest playoff game on record
|
6:40 |
: board still says 99
|
6:40 |
: I bet it’s like 110 on the field
|
6:40 |
: gatorade pays mlb to have the pitchers wrap their arms in gatorade marked towels in order to advertise.
|
6:41 |
: At this time I think the Division Series games were in like the top of the third
|
6:41 |
: how would you describe Kershaw’s/Keuchel’s performance right now? Are they cruising? Wheeling? Dealing? Breezing?
|
6:41 |
: I’d go with cruising, with breezing in my back pocket
|
6:42 |
: state I’m in I’d probably try to be smart and say wheezing
|
6:42 |
: Hitters are all wheezing out there
|
6:43 |
: How good would Kershaw be if he had like, I dunno, Strasburg’s changeup?
|
6:43 |
: Too
|
6:43 |
: We have a baserunner!
|
6:44 |
: It’s a two-out walk, but it’s a baserunner
|
6:44 |
: Can’t hit into a double play with two outs
|
6:45 |
: Mark my words. Andre Either plays a crucial role in the outcome of this game.
|
6:45 |
: Do you think MLB will have to dial back the changes to the baseball? Or are they fine with the home-run spike from non-traditional homerun hitters?
|
6:45 |
: MLB likes it
|
6:45 |
: Runs showed up just as people were worried about runs going down
|
6:45 |
: Has there ever been a snowy world series?
|
6:46 |
: Rays/Phillies had a game delayed by snowfall
|
6:46 |
: the Rays and Phillies played a World Series if you forgot
|
6:46 |
: Kablammo!
|
6:46 |
: hullaballooooooooooooooooo
|
6:47 |
: Justin Turner on the high-inside cutter! It’s a 3-1 ballgame and, suddenly, it’s feeling late for the Astros
|
6:47 |
: Turnerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!
|
6:47 |
: Eno didn’t spoil it!
|
6:47 |
: Okay Eno. You can mention the HR.
|
6:47 |
: Justin Turner is amazing.
|
6:47 |
: Another one! Dodgers 2 flyballs, Astros 1 flyball
|
6:48 |
: Turner wins the Battle of the Beards II.
|
6:50 |
: Is that a home run if it’s 70 instead of 100 degrees?
|
6:50 |
: There would be an expected difference of something like seven feet. So it would be extremely close!
|
6:51 |
: That was the third time Keuchel tried to cheat Turner at the top of the zone, no?
|
6:51 |
: Tremendously difficult pitch to hit out. Surprised Turner got around on that, but maybe that’s my fault
|
6:51 |
: Does Kershaw finish this game out?
|
6:51 |
: There’s no way you don’t use Jansen if it’s late and close
|
6:51 |
: ..not to be a downer but 13% hp on that baby. it is hot
|
6:51 |
: Legitimate point
|
6:52 |
: Hello, gents! How deep do you think they let Kershaw go?
|
6:52 |
: If he keeps the pitch count down, he’ll get a chance to work the eighth
|
6:53 |
: Larry King is sitting behind the rhb box. He looks like he’s about 143 years old
|
6:53 |
: Having some kind of old-off with Tommy Lasorda
|
6:53 |
: Leadoff single for Altuve. Time for this game to slowwwwwww dowwwwwwwwn
|
6:53 |
: man I got kicked out, just got back in.
|
6:53 |
: Eno hopped the fence
|
6:54 |
: That might’ve been the world’s most pointless turned DP attempt
|
6:54 |
: Correa was past the base by like 20 feet
|
6:55 |
: Did Seager look a little less than ginger there?
|
6:56 |
: Put that whole play on the disabled list
|
6:56 |
: 3 dingers off pitchers normally dinger-proof
|
6:56 |
: Perpetua’s HR% on Turner: 35%.
|
6:56 |
: Career-high dinger season for Kershaw! 🙁
|
6:56 |
: It’s hard to look fully ginger when you’re 20 feet away from Turner.
|
6:57 |
: Re: changes to the baseball and runs. I thought total runs were roughly the same, but more came from HRs than in previous years. I’d rather see more hits.
|
6:57 |
: Yes, homers have compensated for missing hits. But it’s hard to expect hits to come back with velocity and strikeouts up where they are
|
6:57 |
: McCann’s out and Kershaw’s thrown 83 pitches. He’s definitely coming back for the eighth
|
6:58 |
: Or maybe he’s not given that he’s currently getting hugs and handshakes
|
6:58 |
: I think Clayton Kershaw just got traded
|
6:59 |
: I’ve blessed America
|
6:59 |
: looked to me like Kershaw didn’t pause after coming set
|
6:59 |
: Nobody does any more they don’t enforce that one.
|
7:00 |
: Baseball will never be able to not play this song
|
7:00 |
: I don’t really care but I doubt they thought it all the way through when they started with GBA
|
7:00 |
: Do they normally play this at the seventh? I can’t recall this every being played after the start of the game
|
7:01 |
: Probably national broadcasts or playoff games or something
|
7:01 |
: It’s not all the time
|
7:01 |
: After 9/11, God Bless America started being played and now we have to do it yes.
|
7:01 |
: It’s not? I think it is.
|
7:01 |
: Is it?
|
7:01 |
: You go to more games than me
|
7:01 |
: I guess it would be weird if it were only occasional
|
7:01 |
: GBA started after 9/11.
|
7:01 |
: Yes this is what I perceive.
|
7:01 |
: One of those nice gestures that, once you implement it, there’s no un-implementing it
|
7:02 |
: But, #sticktosports, and everything
|
7:02 |
: Play it all the time in St Louis
|
7:02 |
: I think GBA was specifically New York games at first, Ronan Tynan singing
|
7:02 |
: It’s not at most stadiums. But it is at all world series
|
7:02 |
: I personally like GBA
|
7:02 |
: Don’t mind the song, but a million times in…
|
7:02 |
: Fine song but I don’t know why it’s there
|
7:02 |
: what’s the deal with the 7th inning stretch anyway?
|
7:03 |
: So I’m an AL all the way guy….I don’t go both ways….tell me why I should fear or not fear the LA bullpen?
|
7:03 |
: It has the best reliever in the world in it
|
7:03 |
: Players used to be so out of shape that they had to stop and stretch in the middle of the game.
|
7:03 |
: Puig took the first pitch again
|
7:03 |
: He’s just not doing anything today after getting ahead
|
7:04 |
: 36 out of 38 first-pitch takes in the playoffs
|
7:04 |
: It amazes me that this Astros lineup set records. Springer/Altuve/Correa are just awesome, Bregman and Reddick are pretty good, and the rest just seem so average
|
7:04 |
: If you don’t have anyone below-average, and you have some stars, that’s a juggernaut
|
7:05 |
: Beltran was like the only subpar hitter on the roster this season, which is nuts
|
7:06 |
: Does pitcher WAR include their ability to prevent stolen bases and/or pick runners off?
|
7:06 |
: No: call it the Cueto Rule.
|
7:07 |
: mcullough tweeting that it’s morrow and jansen to bring it home
|
7:07 |
: Seager’s single spells the end for Dallas Keuchel. Brilliant performance that doesn’t look so good in the box score, thanks to a two-run homer that might’ve stayed in the yard on a cooler evening
|
7:08 |
: When expansion / realignment happens, do you think MLB will make a lot of other changes at the same time? Pitch clock, lower the mound, universal DH, new playoffs, robo umps, etc all in one fell swoop
|
7:08 |
: I imagine pitch clock is right around the corner, but expansion would seem to call for a DH rule reckoning
|
7:09 |
: anyone know the odds on this game in LV?
|
7:09 |
: I think it started at +150 Astros
|
7:10 |
: Kershaw out of the game so he can come back for game 4 & 7?
|
7:10 |
: Don’t think the Dodgers have interest in using Kershaw on short rest
|
7:10 |
: Eno, what is the temp now?
|
7:10 |
: save for a possible G7 relief appearance
|
7:10 |
: 96
|
7:11 |
: Where do you like to go for beer in LA when you are drinking, Eno?
|
7:11 |
: Sunset Beer company, Highland Park Brewing.
|
7:11 |
: Literally Francisco Liriano warming up right now
|
7:12 |
: so who’s gonna be the first to say that Kershaw only forgets how to pitch in the playoffs vs. other NL teams
|
7:12 |
: I think the would-be narrative spinners will just move on to somebody else
|
7:13 |
: Dave Roberts instills in me a strange sense of calm, I’m not sure why
|
7:13 |
: Manager doing a manager’s job
|
7:13 |
https://gfycat.com/WillingScaredCranefly … Keuchel sinker. Someone asked about it earlier. He throws it with a two seam grip off axis to achieve a “one-seam” type spin.
: |
7:13 |
: I mean, that’s basically the whole point
|
7:13 |
: Thanks Lucas!
|
7:14 |
: we’re getting ads between pitches now, mid-AB
|
7:14 |
: Everything in the world is selling to you
|
7:15 |
: Barnes out, we go to the eighth! 3-1 Dodgers, and I guess it’s bullpen time
|
7:15 |
: Kershaw: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 11 K, 69% strikes
|
7:16 |
: what makes Correa better than either Seager or Lindor?
|
7:16 |
: Not sure he’s better right now, but I think his superior all-fields power gives him a higher potential ceiling
|
7:17 |
: A lot of people seem to think expansion is right around the corner? You think we’ll hear something in the next 2-3 years?
|
7:17 |
: I think it’s something Manfred wants within the next five years or so
|
7:18 |
: Using Peacock here seems to point to McCullers going in Game 4, no?
|
7:18 |
: Absolutely. They were probably already leaning strongly that way
|
7:18 |
: Morrow time. One of the better stories of 2017!
|
7:18 |
: He also likes good beer!
|
7:19 |
: Good lil former Mariner
|
7:19 |
: It would be fun if Hernandez just took over third base after running all the way there for the pop out
|
7:20 |
: any of the fangraphs writers religious?
|
7:20 |
: Yes
|
7:20 |
: Dodgers probability now of getting the W?
|
7:21 |
: Any guesses to what Morrow will get this winter?
|
7:21 |
: I could see him getting three years given the quality of his stuff and his strikes
|
7:21 |
: It’ll be a risk but everything is there besides the track record
|
7:21 |
: Think of him like a reliever version of Charlie Morton
|
7:22 |
: Awfully easy inning for Morrow
|
7:23 |
: 10 pitches! Seven strikes! To the bottom of the eighth! I cannot believe we’re almost finished.
|
7:23 |
: If there’s no way they’re using Kershaw on short rest, what’s the reason not to send him out to face the bottom of the order?
|
7:23 |
: Fresh Morrow/Jansen still great, and you don’t need to push a guy who’s working on a day that’s 100 degrees
|
7:23 |
Pressbox announcement: “Attention media, if you are so inclined, there is a giant cake in the press dinning room. Giant cake.”
. Thus is why no eno |
7:24 |
: I can’t eat anything but I was sad
|
7:24 |
: Morrow is a success story that’s really overlooked because of all the other Dodger success stories
|
7:24 |
: His ERA this year — this year! — in Triple-A was 7.20
|
7:24 |
: do you think the DH is standard within the next 5 years? (let’s hope)
|
7:24 |
: That’s my inkling
|
7:24 |
: If not within 5, then within 10
|
7:25 |
: Kaat notes that Morrow has allowed one xbh in his last 150 bf
|
7:25 |
: i saw that live edit, jeff. sneakt
|
7:25 |
: sneaky* damnit
|
7:25 |
: DON’T YOU WISH YOU HAD OUR FEATURES
|
7:25 |
: Eno, are you having a colonoscopy tomorrow or what?
|
7:25 |
: other end
|
7:25 |
: Morrow throws 100?
|
7:25 |
: He’s amazing!
|
7:25 |
: Don’t like Devenski’s delivery. I guess hitters don’t either
|
7:26 |
: Really falls off the mound. probably helps the changeup fade.
|
7:26 |
: It’s one of the weirder deliveries currently in MLB existence
|
7:26 |
: Morrow’s last 68 innings in the minor leagues (16-17) 6.62 ERA
|
7:26 |
: It’s like he’s even beyond over-the-top
|
7:26 |
: This has been a weirdly calm game, I kinda like it after the silliness and drama of the earlier series
|
7:26 |
: My gut sense is that the World Series doesn’t really start to feel like the *World Series* until someone has two wins
|
7:27 |
: Morrow mentioned that minor league record to me yesterday. he said he was closing and didn’t get the innings to combat some walkoffs. And that he had put away the cutter so he could show whiffs to the major league teams.
|
7:27 |
: You have to be able to see the end
|
7:27 |
: Oh, hey, Charlie Culberson was just hitting
|
7:27 |
: Bye for now, Charlie Culberson
|
7:27 |
: DID I JUST HEAR LINK TO THE PAST MUSIC ON THE DODGER ORGAN?
|
7:27 |
: yes
|
7:28 |
: No one questions pulling Kershaw at 83 pitches with bottom of order due up?
|
7:28 |
: So hot out there. I don’t think it’s unreasonable at all
|
7:28 |
: The bottom of the Astros order is still pretty good
|
7:28 |
: How much does Jansen add to that 91%?
|
7:28 |
: 9%
|
7:29 |
: MVP chants for Turner.
|
7:29 |
: Might as well!
|
7:29 |
: Carlos Beltran, postseason destroyer: wRC+ of 173 in the postseason. Mike Trout: wRC+ of 169 always, everywhere, and any time.
|
7:29 |
: All in all, not a terrible result for Houston, right. Held LA offense down pretty well. Won’t have to see Kershaw again until Gm 5 in the Box.
|
7:29 |
: Don’t think Houston cares too much about process. You either win or you lose. The Astros, probably, are about to lose
|
7:30 |
: I, too, would enjoy walking out to Tupac to close in LA.
|
7:30 |
: Morrow a good fit for the cubs next year perhaps? They need some good relievers but it would help them a lot to not have to spend too much to get them
|
7:30 |
: Good fit for lots of teams!
|
7:30 |
: Hence three years
|
7:31 |
: Why have we not had the usual shots of third-rate FOX “stars” in the stands?
|
7:31 |
: Ken Jeong is here!
|
7:31 |
: So is… scans sheet…. Dennis Haysbert!
|
7:31 |
: Here’s Kenley Jansen, who allowed a .207 wOBA this season. Batters had a .200 wOBA after falling behind 0-and-2
|
7:33 |
: How long has this game taken so far?
|
7:33 |
: First pitch was 5:11pm local time
|
7:33 |
: So, 2:22
|
7:33 |
: This inning has to last more than an hour for this game to fit the postseason pattern
|
7:34 |
: Kenley varying that front foot a bit, right? I know he’s changed things up. Which, ridiculous.
|
7:34 |
: yeah. Sometimes he wiggles the front foot almost like Kershaw, sometimes it comes straight.
|
7:34 |
: So will we regress to the mean in game 2 and have a 5 hour game?
|
7:34 |
: Sounds like Dave’s problem, not mine!
|
7:35 |
: Not George Springer’s night, I’m afraid
|
7:35 |
: Does kenley Jansen ever blow saves
|
7:35 |
: No
|
7:35 |
: It has never happened
|
7:35 |
: If you bought a ticket should you feel cheated this game went by so fast? Like, aren’t you owed an extra hour of baseball and maybe a little more suspense?
|
7:36 |
: So many more watching on TV I guess.
|
7:36 |
: In 1923, 301,430 people came to World Series games. Last year, 277,603 saw Cubs v Indians in person.
|
7:36 |
: How often do you see a foul tip take the umpire mask clean off?
|
7:37 |
: Isn’t it atrocious that Verlander was able to fix his slider because the Astros had a more advanced camera? Atrocious in that, how are not all teams equipped with that by now?
|
7:37 |
: Slider was fixed when he was still with Detroit
|
7:37 |
: Teams should all have that tech, but I think that’s a misleading narrative
|
7:38 |
: Any reason to think Morrow’s year has been fluky and won’t be replicated remotely in the future?
|
7:38 |
: He’s a reliever. So, basically, that
|
7:38 |
: Fox cuts back into the game really late. They don’t waste a single second of potential commercial time.
|
7:38 |
: The other day Joe Buck cleverly and sneakily apologized for viewers missing the first pitch of an inning
|
7:39 |
: I don’t know how Bregman made contact with that pitch but I guess it doesn’t matter! One out to go
|
7:40 |
: We’re finished!
|
7:40 |
: Somehow, so fast, we’re finished!
|
7:40 |
: I wasn’t prepared for this.
|
7:40 |
: That game took a hair under two and a half hours. Miraculous.
|
7:40 |
: this was a great game. better than a blowout
|
7:40 |
: Isn’t Fox owed another hour of baseball in which to throw commercials?
|
7:40 |
: i would’ve liked to have seen a pitcher have to pitch out of a jam at some point…
|
7:40 |
: I’d be happy that I stayed for a full game and still go to sleep at a decent time
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7:41 |
: Shortest game since Game 4 of the 1992 World Series, if I heard that right
|
7:41 |
: nuts.
|
7:41 |
: Kershaw and Kenley are very good and so are the Dodgers
|
7:41 |
: here we go JV, do your thing
|
7:41 |
: I’m on a 6-year-old laptop that was at 85% battery when the game started and it might just get to the end of the game. All games should be like this.
|
7:41 |
: The game ended like 5 minutes ago for Eno
|
7:42 |
: Thanks for doing Jeff and Eno, love you both!
|
7:42 |
: Love you all, too!
|
7:42 |
: thanks for hanging out!
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7:42 |
: Dave will have your Game 2 chat tomorrow evening
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7:42 |
: Until then. Be well and goodnight!
|
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I am extremely drunk while reading this transcript and it is disturbingly similar to my own mental processes