The Dodgers’ Minor Roster Shake-Up

by
October 24, 2017

We’re a few hours away from Game 1 of the World Series, which means we have a few hours to analyze the World Series rosters that were released this afternoon.

The Astros are making no changes to their roster. The same 25 players who were a part of the ALCS roster will also have a World Series experience.

Perhaps the intrigue with the Astros’ World Series roster is whether A.J. Hinch will actually trust his bullpen, a subject Dave tackled earlier today. Also of some interest is the distribution of lefties and righties in Houston’s staff: only two of the former, Dallas Keuchel and Francisco Liriano, will be available for Hinch for the duration of the Series. Perhaps that’s a good thing: as I noted in a post examining the Dallas Keuchel’s Game 1 start, the Dodgers typically crush lefties.

So it’s more of the same from the Astros. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have made some changes.

As expected, star shortstop Corey Seager returns to the team after sitting out the NLCS with a back strain. With the addition of Seager, L.A. gets another left-handed bat with which to combat the righty-heavy Astros. The Dodgers now have six left-handed or switch-hitting batters among their 13 position players

The Dodgers have also added a 12th pitcher in Brandon McCarthy, whose strikeout rate has dipped in 2017 but who can perhaps soak up multiple innings in a relief capacity.

What’s a bit of a surprise is their decision to subtract Curtis Granderson from the roster and add Joc Pederson. Pederson was left off the NLDS roster. He was a late add to the NLCS roster but was used sparingly.

The move is a bit curious, since the Dodgers acquired Granderson ostensibly to replace Pederson, who again struggled offensively in 2017, posting a .212/.331/.407 slash line. Pederson was dispatched to the minors in late August after hitting .156 during a 28-game stretch following the All-Star break.

Now Pederson, still scuffling with the bat — he’s logged just five plate appearances this postseason — replaces Granderson.

While Granderson has struggled in the postseason, going 1-for-15 with eight strikeouts and no walks over 15 plate appearances — he’s still a threat to change a game with one swing, particularly with the right-handed nature of the Astros’ staff.

Granderson has a 0.78 GB/FB ratio for his carer and a 0.67 GB/FB ratio this season. He was an air-baller before air-balling and launch angle were a thing. (Pederson posted a 1.35 mark this season.) If you want to be really optimistic about Pederson’s bat, he has made about the same amount of quality air contact per pitch (2.42%) as Granderson (2.47%), according to Statcast’s “barrels” and “quality contact” measures.

The Dodgers produced one of the league’s greatest reductions in ground-ball rate this season (-3.5 points) while also recording an increase in launch angle from an average of 10.0 degrees last year to 11.6 degrees this season, ranking 13th in the majors. The Dodgers are listening to Justin Turner.

But with another premium left-handed bat on the roster in Seager, it appears as though the Dodgers are trading Granderson’s superior bat — though only slightly superior in 2017 — for Pederson’s superior glove and defensive versatility.

Dave Roberts’ reasoning for adding Pederson to the World Series roster is likely the same as it was when adding him to the NLCS roster. He elaborated on that logic with the L.A. Times:

“Joc just gives us versatility,” manager Dave Roberts said. “The ability to play all three outfield spots, the athleticism on the bases. But also just to have that at-bat. So whether it’s off the bench, or to start, he just gives us that versatility.”

While not a particularly controversial decision — and perhaps even a sensible one — it’s a bit of a surprise to see a player replace his replacement on the most important roster of a baseball season. But with Seager back, the Dodgers can perhaps squeeze more value out of that position player spot with Pederson as a defensive and baserunning substitute. And with that, the rosters are set, and we are ready for what could very well be a fantastic series.





 

A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.

29 Comments
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sadtrombonemember
6 years ago

Can you blame them? Granderson has been awful since he was traded.

12
sweepcut
6 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Yeah, Granderson has looked completely lost.

3
RonnieDobbs
6 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

He is usually terrible. He floats his season numbers with hot streaks but day-in-day-out he is a really bad offensive player. Composite statistics don’t capture how consistently bad he is. If you are a non-contender, then you may be able to afford to have him in the lineup, but I am happy that LAD isn’t moving forward with him.

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Roger McDowell Hot Foot
6 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Yes, I can blame a team for recency-biasing their way into thinking four weeks of AB outweigh a decade-long career. The “pick one of Granderson and Pederson” decision is a bit of a toss-up in any case (my answer is it’s better to keep both and drop a bullpen arm, since Roberts has shown no willingness to use the back end of his bullpen anyhow, even in blowouts) but “how has he played since the trading deadline” is a dumb reason to do pretty much anything.

1
sadtrombonemember
6 years ago
Reply to  Roger McDowell Hot Foot

Well if you want to go by longer track records, Joc Pederson has similar overall numbers to Granderson over the last 2-3 years. So I don’t see any real case for going with Granderson over Pederson.

But Granderson, what the hell has gotten into him? He looked done at the beginning of the year and done at the end of the year, and somewhere in there he hit like an all-star…would you really want to let him play his way out of a slump in the world series? Eventually he will right the ship, but there are only a few games.

(I know what you’re going to say; you’d bank on him rebounding to his normal levels in this series. I am not so sure, and wouldn’t blame anyone who disagrees).

1
Roger McDowell Hot Foot
6 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I’m not saying he should start, or even that I’d necessarily use him before Pederson in some situations. He certainly looks like he’s lost some bat speed and it’s probably reasonable to think he’s on the downslope of the aging curve now. But as a bat off the bench and outfield/DH/PH depth I’d have wanted him on the roster, myself, especially given Roberts’ clear unwillingness to use the back end of the bullpen.

1
tung_twista
6 years ago
Reply to  Roger McDowell Hot Foot

I wouldn’t say that Roberts has an unwillingness to use the back end of the bullpen.
It is simply that the Dodgers haven’t been in situations that calls for it.
SP-Maeda-Morrow-Jansen is probably the optimal game plan for the Dodgers.
In the only game that the Dodgers lost in the postseason, Stripling, Watson, Maeda, Cingrani, and Fields were used.

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Roger McDowell Hot Foot
6 years ago
Reply to  tung_twista

lol yeah it’s not like they played two successive blowout games at the end of the NLCS or anything

-1
tung_twista
6 years ago
Reply to  Roger McDowell Hot Foot

In the last game, they knew they were getting a 5 day rest before the WS so no need to restrict usage.
And since when is 4-1 at end of 6th a blowout?
Remember, Roberts put up Stripling for 9th and resorted to using Jansen only after Stripling gave two consecutive hits.
I don’t know what others would have done differently.

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RonnieDobbs
6 years ago
Reply to  Roger McDowell Hot Foot

He was good… quite some time ago. Nobody is talking about his career here. We are talking about what he is, which is worthless at this point in his career.

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