2017 World Series Game 6 Live Blog
5:05 |
: Hello friends |
5:05 |
: Welcome to 2017 World Series Game 6 Live Blog |
5:05 |
: Happy Halloween! |
5:05 |
: Happy Halloween! |
5:06 |
: Happy Halloween. I just remembered to turn our porch light off so nobody tries to interrupt my World Series viewing with handout requests |
5:06 |
: this is gonna be a real corker eh |
5:06 |
: I don’t know |
5:06 |
: Hi! I love you. |
5:06 |
: I love all of you too |
5:06 |
: Jeff, you are the chatter who I wanted to watch the end of this series with! |
5:06 |
: Too bad about tomorrow! |
5:07 |
: I will continue to argue against The Kershaw Narrative, but he sure makes it hard, he needed to win that game. |
5:07 |
: Game 1 was basically as good as he’s ever looked and everyone in Game 5 was terrible. The narrative is flimsy! |
5:07 |
: Over under 8.5 hrs hit tonight? |
5:07 |
: I’m quitting at 4 |
5:07 |
: I’d like to mention that Joey Votto was fantastic on the pre game show here in Canada |
5:08 |
: Joey Votto is fantastic at everything and from the outside it sure seems as if age is working wonders for him |
5:08 |
: I can’t believe you are doing another marathon chat |
5:08 |
: Sometimes it’s not up to me! And I had to cover because Dave wants to take his kid trick-or-treating. As someone who is intentionally childless I don’t have a walking, talking excuse |
5:09 |
: Awfully CONVENIENT, Dave |
5:09 |
: Sullivan with the early ‘Dodgers Win’ prediction! |
5:09 |
: If this series doesn’t go seven I am going to be awfully pissed |
5:09 |
: Which reminds me. Poll time! |
5:09 |
: Who are you rooting for?
Astros (44.6% | 54 votes)
Dodgers (55.3% | 67 votes)
Total Votes: 121
|
5:10 |
: Who do you think is going to win Game 6?
Astros (56.0% | 65 votes)
Dodgers (43.9% | 51 votes)
Total Votes: 116
|
5:10 |
: Hey Jeff, just you tonight? |
5:10 |
: I never got any word of backup. And since Slack is down, I never will! |
5:10 |
: Whose bullpen do you have more concerns with? |
5:11 |
: Astros, mostly because they’re intentionally ignoring their best reliever |
5:11 |
: I was excited for the game until I saw Jeff was chatting, because that means we’re guaranteed a 5 hour game |
5:11 |
: I did Game 1! That one was over by now! |
5:11 |
: how do you think the cooler weather will impact things tonight? |
5:12 |
: All six of the home runs will feel a lot more legitimate than the other ones in this series have |
5:12 |
: Obligatory HOF question – would you put Verlander in now? If not, with a few more productive seasons? |
5:12 |
: Few more years but he’s obviously done the bulk of the work |
5:12 |
: Why no peanut gallery? |
5:12 |
: I don’t know what that is |
5:13 |
: Thanks for chatting again during this series. Four times! Will you find it difficult to watch game 7 and not chat about it? |
5:13 |
: I will/would find it refreshing. I did one of these for last year’s Game 7 and while I was happy to have the shared experience I also felt like I kind of missed out on distraction-free viewing |
5:14 |
: If this series doesn’t get to hand seven is it remembered as one of the best of all time? |
5:14 |
: I doubt it, but maybe if tonight is also insane |
5:14 |
: Justin Verlander: 6.5 innings
Over (55.3% | 62 votes)
Under (44.6% | 50 votes)
Total Votes: 112
|
5:15 |
: Rich Hill: 4.5 innings
Over (60.7% | 68 votes)
Under (39.2% | 44 votes)
Total Votes: 112
|
5:15 |
: Fair to say you can be rooting for the Astros in 7 but for the Dodgers tonight? |
5:15 |
: Yarp |
5:16 |
: Ask for the day off in memory of Fred Beckey |
5:16 |
: This game has an obligation to be epic in remembrance |
5:17 |
: Current polls: 59% rooting for Dodgers, 55% think Astros win. 59% think Verlander goes more than 6.5, 61% think Hill goes more than 4.5 |
5:17 |
: Hill is going to make it tricky. Dodgers have fresh reasons not to trust their bullpen but he is so agonizingly inefficient |
5:18 |
: Who’s the first guy out of the pen for the Dodgers, and how many innngs does Hill go? |
5:18 |
: Stay tuned and find out! |
5:18 |
: do you think the ball is juiced? |
5:18 |
: I think there have been changes with the baseball during the regular season. I’m less convinced there is anything meaningfully different with the ball in the World Series, specifically |
5:19 |
: Pitchers deserve the benefit of the doubt but I’ve heard talk like this before |
5:19 |
: what celebrity would you like to see run onto the field during play? |
5:19 |
: Every single one of them |
5:19 |
: Likelihood of seeing Giles tonight? |
5:19 |
: Almost 0%, which is absurd |
5:19 |
: What would need to happen to Kershaw for him not to be in the HOF? |
5:20 |
: The Brandon Webb path, immediately |
5:20 |
: Sup Jeff. Which repetitive commercial do you hate most? The car insurance with the bull is hella annoying. Whoever thought that would be a good brand name should be fired. |
5:20 |
: I watch on a stream so I’m completely unaware of the recurring commercials! |
5:20 |
: According to Ken Rosenthal, Clayton Kershaw wanted to start this game. On one day of rest |
5:20 |
: What you drinking Jeff? |
5:21 |
: Coffee and, separately, water |
5:21 |
: I want to punch Joe Buck in the face already |
5:21 |
: Be nice |
5:21 |
: Imagine telling someone 3 years ago that Rich Hill would be starting a world series elimination game. |
5:22 |
: And rookie Dallas Keuchel had more walks than strikeouts! |
5:23 |
: And Hill has a leadoff strikeout. Don’t know what Springer was looking at |
5:23 |
: I’ve gone to bed twice this Series because Kenley Jansen was pitching with the Dodgers in the lead (I’m on the east coast and have to go early to work). What should I do tonight if I’m in that situation? I’d hate to be the cause of him blowing 3 saves in a tight WS. |
5:23 |
: Go to work late |
5:23 |
: They probably won’t fire you that fast |
5:24 |
: Bregman’s aboard. Stayed on the curve over the middle |
5:24 |
: Any chance Hinch lets Verlander go all the way with a 3 or 4 run lead in the seventh or eighth? |
5:24 |
: I’d say in that event Verlander will go pretty deep until he gets to, say, 110 pitches or thereabouts |
5:24 |
: Not saying that’s what I’d do, but I think that’s what Hinch would be open to |
5:25 |
: Fair to say Jeff’s costume today was being a productive member of the workforce |
5:25 |
: In the afterhours! |
5:25 |
: Jeff where do you chat from? |
5:25 |
: Second bedroom, upstairs, with beautiful yellow and orange trees outside the window |
5:26 |
: I share this offense with the spider currently crawling on my television |
5:26 |
: Almost a guarantee that all the new baseball fans tuning in tonight are going to be disappointed with a 2-1 game |
5:26 |
: Not going to lie to you, as much fun as an epic game is I also wouldn’t complain about another G1 repeat |
5:26 |
: Are they doing the weird 20 minute after start time again? MLB app keeps saying game time is the top of the hour |
5:26 |
: It’s never ever ever the top of the hour, but they do always want to trick you into believing it is |
5:27 |
: Altuve is out! Curve…right down the middle |
5:27 |
: It’s fun to remember that earlier this season Hill was the first starter to pitch an extra-inning CG since Cliff Lee. |
5:27 |
: That is actually incredibly hard to believe |
5:28 |
: Hasn’t Kershaw done enough that if he went bad then retired, he’d still be in? |
5:28 |
: Probably. But if anything could keep him out, it’s an immediately useless shoulder |
5:28 |
: Why do managers need to wear uniforms? |
5:28 |
: I don’t know |
5:28 |
: It’s one of the dumbest things about baseball |
5:28 |
: Half-inning is over. Solid contact at the end, but fruitless |
5:29 |
: why does houston’s ~4th best hitter bat 2nd? |
5:29 |
: McCann and Reddick are lefties and Gonzalez is worse from the right side |
5:30 |
: I think the Dodgers should have started Kershaw game 4 and potential game 7, (3 days rest each). He could do that… |
5:30 |
: They traded for Darvish specifically and explicitly so they wouldn’t have to use Kershaw on short rest like they’ve done |
5:30 |
: If the Astros win on say, a Gurriel homer, does that change the MLB’s approach to suspensions in the future at all? |
5:30 |
: No. He already hit that one home run |
5:30 |
: Why aren’t Joe Buck and John Smoltz wearing halloween costumes? |
5:31 |
: Actually, Joe Buck dressed up as John Smoltz, and John Smoltz very convincingly dressed up as Joe Buck |
5:31 |
: By the way, Hill in the first: 9 fastballs, 3 curves |
5:32 |
: Another first-pitch swing from Taylor. Feels like he’s been doing that *constantly* |
5:32 |
: Listening to EW while reading this chat and scrolling through Twitter is a Sullivan overload |
5:32 |
: Thankfully for you I don’t and can’t tweet while I’m chatting! |
5:32 |
: We heard Smoltz talk about establishing the fastball, something McCullers obviously didn’t do in his crazy curveball outing. Do you think Hill actually needs to “establish the fastball”? |
5:32 |
: That expression doesn’t mean anything |
5:32 |
: I know it’s flimsy, but do you have any theories on why Kershaw isn’t as Kershawian in the playoffs? If you had to guess would you say it’s mostly fatigue? |
5:33 |
: Fatigue and luck, yeah. He’s overall been good in these playoffs, and in past playoffs he’s been overused out of necessity |
5:33 |
: Will Justin Verlander get a hit tonight? |
5:33 |
: lol no |
5:33 |
: How many mound visits tonight? |
5:33 |
: More than 0, which is too many |
5:34 |
: There’s a somewhat generous called strike three for Verlander against Seager. Seager isn’t loving the zone these last few games |
5:34 |
: Does your gf watch any playoff games with you? |
5:34 |
: She watched most of last year’s Game 7 but she strongly prefers hockey, which is extremely reasonable |
5:35 |
: Must be nice having two bedrooms! |
5:35 |
: If you live with somebody and work from home I don’t know how you survive with one |
5:35 |
: First inning is over! Pretty easy for Verlander. Four fastballs, three sliders |
5:35 |
: What city? |
5:35 |
: Portland, OR |
5:36 |
: *If* there’s a pitchers duel does that make it harder for you to chat through because of the lack of actionable plays? |
5:36 |
: Nope, because the queue is always sufficiently active that there’s something to say or respond to |
5:36 |
: 13-12 games just don’t really feel like baseball to me… |
5:37 |
: 13-12 games are insane, but if there weren’t the occasional anomaly, baseball would be dumb. Embrace the random slugfest |
5:38 |
: I just want to say that as an Asian american, I was really offended that fangraphs writers didn’t criticize manfred for failing to immediately suspend gurriel for his racist gesture. L |
5:38 |
: They should have suspended Gurriel immediately for his racist gesture |
5:38 |
: Speaking of which, he’s greeted by boos, tonight |
5:38 |
: Sustained boos! Impressive |
5:38 |
: Still booing after two pitches! |
5:39 |
: Still! Booing! |
5:39 |
: Jeff do you find yourself having a rooting interest in games like these or no? |
5:39 |
: Yes, mildly |
5:40 |
: Gurriel is out of there. Foul pop |
5:40 |
: Hill can’t sustain curveballs down the middle. Will get lucky 1st time through… early hook for him tonight |
5:40 |
: He tends to throw a million curveballs down the middle. For him it’s all about timing, less than location |
5:40 |
: people forget sports illustrated had a cover in 2014 that said the astros would win the 2017 world series |
5:40 |
: Kind of makes you wonder what kind of strings they’ve been pulling to make this happen for them |
5:41 |
: Always be suspicious of Big Magazine |
5:41 |
: There’s a McCann fly out to left that might’ve left the yard in Game 1 or Game 2 |
5:41 |
: Have you not noticed Giles absolutely sucking for a month now? |
5:41 |
: Of course I have, but I think he’s fine and shouldn’t be ignored |
5:42 |
: Talk about me |
5:42 |
: why |
5:42 |
: I feel bad that these chats are such a chore for the FG staff. They are very, very fun for us. Thanks for toughing it out |
5:42 |
: They’re not a chore. They’re just distracting, by their nature. Difference! |
5:43 |
: At least, they’re not a chore for me. It would be worse if I were Paul, living on the east coast with two kids |
5:43 |
: Gonzalez is out, we’re through 1.5. Hill: 17 fastballs, 7 curves |
5:44 |
: I don’t understand why people want Gurriel suspended for this series. What he did was wrong, but it wasn’t based on anything he did on the field. A delayed suspension is fine. He still gets punished. It isn’t like he charged the mound |
5:44 |
: He did something in the dugout, on camera, wearing the team uniform |
5:44 |
: Jeff are you sad baseball could be done tonight? Pitchers and catchers won’t report for months from now. |
5:44 |
: My brain is sad baseball could be done tonight, but my sleep schedule is ecstatic |
5:45 |
: Plus, when the playoffs are over, I can finally write my article about Luis Perdomo hitting four triples |
5:45 |
: I mean, what?! |
5:45 |
: Any chance they discuss enforcing the rules from 2015 where you can’t leave the box? Been happening so often |
5:45 |
: I imagine enforcement will come up again this winter |
5:45 |
: They’ve gotten really lax about that |
5:46 |
: Is your gf why you follow hockey? |
5:46 |
: no |
5:46 |
: Jeff, assuming the Astros win, who do you think the frontrunners for MVP are? My money is currently on Springer or Bregman. |
5:46 |
: I’m getting a Bregman vibe, pending the series resolution |
5:46 |
: Jeff, you’re a numbers guy – if (a) the Astros win and (b) Verlander has a dominating game (complete game or 8 innings, 0-1 runs), how much does that improve his Hall of Fame chances? |
5:47 |
: I think he’s already going to make it eventually. A huge game here would just serve to put him over the top |
5:47 |
: Jeff, have there been any studies on which kinds of hitters tend to perform better against “good” pitching? Like do contact hitters perform better against Verlander than hr/strikeout hitters? |
5:47 |
: The bigger-picture studies have suggested that power lineups lose less in the playoffs. So perhaps you can take that to the individual level |
5:48 |
: Mostly, you should just assume all players will perform like themselves, minus like 10 or 20% |
5:48 |
: Good high-tight fastball from Verlander to Bellinger |
5:48 |
: And conversely, if the Dodgers win, who do you think the frontrunners for MVP are? My money is on Bellinger or Forsythe. |
5:48 |
: I think that would come down to who stars the next two days |
5:49 |
: Imagine if that Bellinger shot in Game 2 actually left the yard 😐 |
5:49 |
: How big of a backlash should we expect Manfred to receive, if it is found that the balls have been messed with? |
5:49 |
: Modest. It’s not clear it’s actually been a bad thing for the game. You’d just like for there to be more transparency |
5:50 |
: That’s a fly where Springer misjudged the contact because of the swing |
5:50 |
: Big swing but Puig kind of got it off the fists |
5:50 |
: What do you expect out of Verlander next year? |
5:50 |
: Good pitching |
5:50 |
: These WS patches look bush league |
5:50 |
: They look like they’re made out of kitchen tile! |
5:51 |
: picturing MGL blowing a fuse at Smoltz talk about how you do pitch sequencing |
5:51 |
: Pretty sure MGL wants John Smoltz in prison |
5:52 |
: Would you pull Hill after 2 turns if his numbers are exactly the same as Game 2 and there’s no need to pinch-hit? |
5:52 |
: No |
5:52 |
: “Late break” or “late movement” isn’t a thing, right? Like physics is still physics even on a baseball diamond? |
5:52 |
: Correct |
5:53 |
: Late break is just a term people use to discuss soft-contact pitches instead of no-contact pitches |
5:53 |
: Like, cutters are said to have late break, because they’re so similar to ordinary fastballs but the end up in a slightly different place |
5:53 |
: I think you are behind the cable feed jeff |
5:53 |
: I definitely am |
5:54 |
: Who is more likely to pitch today, Darvish or Wood? |
5:54 |
: Probably Wood |
5:54 |
: What is your favorite Halloween candy? |
5:55 |
: I don’t love candy but I can justify eating a Snickers without feeling like a piece of shit |
5:55 |
: What’s the strongest language we can use in here, Jeff? |
5:55 |
: whoops |
5:55 |
: John Smoltz clearly understands and supports framing and spin rate yet he hates shifts and bullpens. What a strange set of ideals |
5:56 |
: I think that Smoltz means well, and he’s clearly bright. He’s just also wedded to certain playing styles from the days of his own career |
5:56 |
: Excellent low curve to Pederson |
5:56 |
: Puigs whole schtick with the tongue feels forced now |
5:56 |
: I don’t think it’s a schtick if you assume he’d do the exact same stuff if there were no cameras |
5:57 |
: The longer this game is tied, the more the advantage goes to…? |
5:57 |
: LA, slightly, I guess |
5:57 |
: Jeff, living in Portland, what’s your feeling about an expansion team coming there? |
5:58 |
: There are probably better places but this city is growing rapidly every year. It could support a team if there were a buyer |
5:58 |
: Given that analytics seem to say that pitcher performance in recent games or even recent innings may not be predictive, how do we identify when a pitcher should be pulled early? |
5:58 |
: When his stuff is down, or the game is out of hand, or you’re getting some kind of actual direct indication that the pitcher just isn’t all the way there |
6:00 |
: And we’re through two. That was a much longer inning for Verlander but he’s still at, what, 29 pitches |
6:00 |
: 19 fastballs, 8 sliders, 2 changeups, 1 curve |
6:01 |
: Is it kind of under-discussed that as the league gets more TTO, the best offence (maybe in modern history) decided to go after better contact? |
6:01 |
: Well they kind of just went after…being good at everything. The Astros were great by walks, strikeouts, and homers |
6:01 |
: I think they were tired of striking out so much, but they didn’t chase contact for contact’s sake |
6:02 |
: Who’s your favorite player to watch on these two teams? |
6:02 |
: Jansen. Such beautiful simplicity when it’s working |
6:02 |
: Re Gurriel. Should the Indians be penalized for wearing the Chief Wahoo logo? I understand that Gurrieal’s action was racist but why is it worse than the Cleveland logo or the Braves chop? |
6:03 |
: Manfred is going to work on the Indians logo thing this winter |
6:03 |
: He has made his intentions very clear |
6:03 |
: Who is MGL |
6:04 |
: Can I assume you read MGL’s recent piece about Ken Giles? |
6:04 |
https://mglbaseball.com/2017/10/29/the-2017-world-series-ken-giles-rel… : Many people should! |
6:04 |
: Justin Verlander is not a good hitter |
6:05 |
: Do you have any insight as to why Russel Carlton’s piece last year about the third time through the order penalty has been largely ignored by the larger sabermetric community? |
6:05 |
: I don’t remember it, so, no |
6:05 |
: In general, I don’t have very much industry insight about anything |
6:05 |
: Dinger! |
6:05 |
: By Springer! |
6:05 |
: Stayed on a low-away fastball. That’s a pitch he doesn’t hit well as a rookie |
6:05 |
: SPRINGER DINGER |
6:05 |
: Sprung! |
6:06 |
: George got upset |
6:06 |
: MVP! MVP! Hard to make the case against him |
6:07 |
: Sorry about that, lost my internet for a couple minutes |
6:07 |
: Springer hit the ball 104mph out to right-center. Impressive swing |
6:07 |
: why cant i comment on here |
6:08 |
: Everybody can comment on here. But there are several hundred people in this room so the overwhelming majority of comments don’t get selected. That’s how this always works |
6:08 |
: In fact, I have a secret to share. I don’t even read all the comments in the queue! Because it’s impossible. |
6:08 |
: How much do you think the Astros getting to see Jensen 4 times in a week has factored into his ineffectiveness versus general fatigue? |
6:09 |
: I don’t think the familiarity matters. Lots of teams see Jansen multiple times in a season. It’s not like there’s much to “learn”. He does the same thing every game, and he’s usually perfect at it |
6:09 |
: Do umpires always say, e.g. “ball outside” and I’m just noticing it more because of all the microphones? |
6:09 |
: I think it’s just more noticeable in the playoffs. Extra production |
6:09 |
: Is the Yankee pitching staff this good or was the Astros offense just in a funk |
6:09 |
: Random funk |
6:10 |
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/28506/baseball-therapy… – long story short is fatigue not familiarity : OK, here’s the piece by Carleton: |
6:10 |
: I mean, a penalty is a penalty, right? |
6:11 |
: But yeah, if a guy gets through two trips on 50 pitches, that’s different from two trips on 90 |
6:11 |
: That was a weirdly loud crowd cheer for a ground ball directly to the second baseman |
6:11 |
: What’s the population in here tonight? |
6:11 |
: 463 and growing |
6:12 |
: Hill trying the ol drag bunt |
6:12 |
: I love him |
6:12 |
: Look at him run! |
6:12 |
: He’s ridiculous! |
6:12 |
: Do the Dodgers stand a chance? |
6:12 |
: No. They have a 0% chance of winning this game |
6:13 |
: How can the Dodgers win? |
6:13 |
: A couple of homers |
6:13 |
: You’re not going to give the Yankees’ staff ANY credit? |
6:13 |
: It’s a good staff. What do you want? |
6:13 |
: Look at Rich Hill hunch over!! |
6:13 |
: He still struck out, but that was a fun strikeout |
6:13 |
: Seems like the Cubs screwed themselves out of the NLCS rather than LA flat out earning it. |
6:14 |
: The Cubs got absolutely dominated in the NLCS |
6:14 |
: They didn’t belong on the same field as the Dodgers |
6:14 |
: Yet another first-pitch swing from Taylor. Geez |
6:14 |
: Jeff, do you think there’s any room for psychology to get into sabrmetrics somehow? I get that most conventional wisdom can be proven wrong by the numbers, but humans are humans after all where their past numbers won’t necessarily dictate the players ideal usage. |
6:14 |
: Yes, absolutely. Although it’s extremely hard from the outside, given that we don’t get that sort of intimate access |
6:15 |
: It’s not a surprise that teams are placing a higher and higher priority on the “soft skills” |
6:15 |
: Hey look, a slider for a strikeout. Maybe the baseball is fine |
6:15 |
: 1-0 Astros, through three! |
6:15 |
: Is Grandal playing somewhere else next year? |
6:15 |
: Odds are good |
6:15 |
: people really have a hard time with the Astros offense being the best offense in baseball since integration by WRC+ best! |
6:15 |
: Truly something historic. They’re extremely good |
6:16 |
: Rich Hill looks like a character from Rick and Morty. |
6:16 |
: 463 seems low for these chats |
6:16 |
: Always grows in the middle and later innings |
6:16 |
: Especially tonight after parents finish walking their kids around gathering snacks |
6:16 |
: if it’s fatigue than there is nothing magic about the 19th or 28th batter than right? |
6:17 |
: I think it’s likely there is a times-through-the-order effect. It’s just not as powerful as the fatigue effect |
6:17 |
: Think of it this way: has the industry moved toward a times-through-the-order limit? It inarguably has. |
6:17 |
: Teams are acting as if it’s a big deal |
6:17 |
: So we should spam our questions so you see them ? |
6:17 |
: dang it |
6:17 |
: no |
6:17 |
: Here I am. Kids just got done trick or treating. |
6:18 |
: See? |
6:18 |
: Why aren’t postseason home runs counted in home run totals? |
6:18 |
: I don’t know. People are silly about postseason stats. For 11 months of the year they’re completely ignored |
6:18 |
: well you have guys saying basically pull Hill after 18 batters no questions asked, some of whom write for this site… |
6:18 |
: The part where I have trouble is that Rich Hill is so good. His baseline is so terrific that even a worse, fatigued version of Hill should still be solid for a bit |
6:19 |
: Do you think WS losses are harder on the fans than the players? I assume it upsets the players, but they can get over it a little quicker with some much needed time off, and getting ready for the next season |
6:19 |
: Depends on the fan. Casual fans get over it in a day and a half |
6:19 |
: Altuve made contact with that middle-middle curve. It was bad contact, and he is out |
6:20 |
: 1 thing to see Jansen multiple times during a season- but it’s different when it’s multiple times within a week. Only 19 times did Jansen for instance face a team 2x during the same series. A lot different than seeing a team 4 times in 5 games. |
6:20 |
: It’s not like playoff Mariano Rivera ever got overexposed |
6:20 |
: Are you an 0 and one guy or a nothing and one guy? |
6:20 |
: oh-and-one |
6:21 |
: How abnormal is it to be able to throw 98 mph at age 34? What other pitchers have done it recently? |
6:21 |
: Fernando Rodney is 40 years old |
6:21 |
: Correa with the Crawford Boxes swing |
6:21 |
: More boos for Gurriel |
6:21 |
: Slightly lesser in intensity than earlier, I think? |
6:22 |
: Hard to tell |
6:22 |
: Who is worse at attempting humor, Buck, or Smoltz? |
6:22 |
: Smoltz. Buck is kind of funny |
6:22 |
: That MGL piece was cringeworthy are reeks of pretentious sabermetrics from 2007. Zero “real life element” (i.e, Giles was bad because he threw bad pitches, instead of “babip, idk”) and worshipping “regression to the mean” as if it happens immediately. Blaming a bad babip on luck with no other evidence is for newbs. |
6:22 |
: You could make the same argument for every single pitcher slump |
6:23 |
: Quick pitch from Rich Hill! |
6:23 |
: He’s amazing! |
6:23 |
: (It was a ball) |
6:23 |
: I struggle with Manfred’s stated intention to address Chief Wahoo. It is the worst thing in baseball, but getting rid of the logo makes it more likely that the nicknames will never be addressed. Both the Indiana and the Braves are inherently problematic AND invite terrible, racist fan cultures. |
6:23 |
: One thing at a time. These issues are extremely difficult |
6:24 |
: Lazy out for Gurriel. Through 3.5! |
6:24 |
: Hill has thrown only 45 pitches, with an insane 36 strikes |
6:24 |
: Verlander is at 32 out of 43 |
6:24 |
: 77% strikes in this game, combined |
6:24 |
: What! |
6:25 |
: gonna go out on a limb here and say that the dodgers are gonna need to make verlander throw more than 15 pitches an inning to win this |
6:25 |
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN201710250.shtml : The quick-strike worked before |
6:25 |
: Would you rather be a major league manager or a major league color analyst? |
6:25 |
: Analyst. Managing sounds terrible |
6:25 |
: Although I guess they do make more money |
6:25 |
: The Dodgers have no business being on the same field as the Astros. |
6:25 |
: Don’t be stupid |
6:26 |
: What do you mean by “soft skills”? |
6:26 |
: Hill, by the way: 28 fastballs, 17 curves. Seven swinging strikes |
6:27 |
: You think the Nats could/should trade for Grandal? |
6:27 |
: Yes |
6:27 |
: Jeff, do you enjoy the Marvel movies. |
6:27 |
: I don’t know them |
6:27 |
: How long do you think Rich Hill will last |
6:27 |
: A lot longer than I used to! |
6:28 |
: Thanks for the chat and for the EW Patreon LiveCasts. Speaking of that, which mode of chat do you prefer? Does typing to the rabble here become engaging to you, or is it just simply more enjoyable to yap with Ben? |
6:28 |
: I like these more, because I can eat dinner and type. I can’t eat dinner and talk |
6:29 |
: Good slider from Verlander to get Seager out. But the baseballs are too slippery! |
6:29 |
: On MLB.tv commercial breaks, I keep on seeing the Cubs/Nationals play where his foot came off the bag for a split second, how do you think MLB should change the rule or should they and players learn how to slide better? |
6:29 |
: I like Dave’s suggestion |
6:29 |
: But I’m also relieved we haven’t seen one of those replays in a while |
6:29 |
: I think the slides have been better |
6:29 |
: Verlander has no pitch count tonight, right? As in he could go 150 if he is pitching well enough given his history |
6:29 |
: He is not going to throw 150 pitches |
6:29 |
: Ichiro a hall of famer? |
6:29 |
: Obviously yes |
6:30 |
: Are hitters more aggressive in the postseason? |
6:30 |
: I haven’t looked at the numbers, but I wouldn’t be shocked — against postseason pitching, you don’t want to end up in a two-strike count. They’re too good |
6:32 |
: I bet Bellinger would love to have that swing back |
6:33 |
: I know this is baseball, but did you see the Zach Miller injury this weekend? Stuff like that makes me not want to play contact sports, ever. |
6:33 |
: I don’t know what you’re talking about |
6:33 |
: But you are under no obligation to play contact sports |
6:33 |
: I would advise against it |
6:33 |
: Anyway, now we’re through four! Verlander is dominant! |
6:34 |
: 58 pitches, 42 strikes. Six swinging strikes |
6:34 |
: What has to happen for Giles to get in the game tonight? |
6:34 |
: 17 innings |
6:34 |
: is there a site where we can see the live win expectancy? |
6:34 |
: Astros right now: 65% |
6:35 |
: is altuve fast because of his size or in spite of it |
6:35 |
: What about having short legs makes you think he’d be faster because of it? |
6:35 |
: Wonder if Gurriel still gets booed in any other park next season |
6:35 |
: Smattering |
6:36 |
: Wonder what it would take for McCann to hit a double |
6:36 |
: Kinda hope Gurriel homes to silence the crowd. The story is out, everybody is ok, only the fans will prolong racism, creating more racism by bringing it to the front of everybody’s minds |
6:36 |
: what |
6:36 |
: heard on twitter that rich hill stepped off the mound to let people boo gurriel more |
6:36 |
: If there’s one thing Twitter definitely knows, it’s what’s happening in the mind of Rich Hill |
6:37 |
: Any plans on doing an article about postseason stat trends that could carry over into next season? |
6:37 |
: None of them |
6:37 |
: The playoff game is just too different |
6:37 |
: How do you keep mosquitos from devouring you when you camp/hike? |
6:37 |
: Layers and not camping near lakes in peak mosquito season |
6:37 |
: Here come the Astros! |
6:38 |
: Gonzalez with the liner double. No way McCann was scoring, but still |
6:38 |
: Wonder how deep a fly would have to be to let McCann score |
6:38 |
: Smoltz suggesting that Dave Roberts doesn’t like when Rich Hill drops down. Maybe that’s true, but it’s the first I’ve heard of it |
6:39 |
: How should Dodger fans accept the end? |
6:39 |
: Same way they’ve done for 29 years |
6:39 |
: Big chance for Hill here, with Reddick and then Verlander due up |
6:39 |
: Going 3-and-0 on Reddick doesn’t help |
6:39 |
: Was game 5 the best baseball game you have ever watched? If not what was? |
6:39 |
: Still partial to 2011 Game 6 |
6:40 |
: Do you play video games? I need someone to talk about Super Mario Odyssey with |
6:40 |
: Like I need to spend more time in front of a screen |
6:40 |
: Rich Hill went from having a pretty good game to probably a relatively bad one. |
6:40 |
: Pitching! |
6:40 |
: hooooooooooooooooooooooo boy that’s a curveball |
6:40 |
: Changes the whole inning, coming back from 3-and-0 |
6:41 |
: Is Brian McCann the slowest player in baseball? |
6:41 |
: Pujols |
6:41 |
: Or some random pitcher |
6:41 |
: the rich hill thing… was from Andy McCullough @ the LA times, said he knew rich hill was upset by what gurriel did |
6:41 |
: Oh! |
6:41 |
: Then all right |
6:42 |
: Verlander is out, of course |
6:42 |
: And now, Springer. Third time through the order. |
6:43 |
: Huge opportunity for Hill and the Dodgers |
6:43 |
: And that’s it for Hill |
6:44 |
: Take that, Jeff! |
6:44 |
: Springer IBB. Morrow in with the bases loaded. Here we go |
6:44 |
: I don’t understand getting Morrow up right now |
6:44 |
: Have to assume the rest day was good for him. Have to assume the Dodgers came into this with a plan |
6:44 |
: Not saying he’s 100%, but, well, here we are |
6:45 |
: Does Verlander cement a place in the HOF with a great game tonight? |
6:45 |
: Basically |
6:45 |
: As mentioned before, he’s already likely to make it, but this would make it almost guaranteed |
6:46 |
: Will Yankees regret McCann trade? Or will they be happy with the package they got? |
6:46 |
: The Yankees have Gary Sanchez |
6:46 |
: 98 from Morrow, first-pitch swing for Bregman |
6:47 |
: How do you think a team’s GM and analytics department (i.e. the people who are supposed to be the most coldly rational in the organization) respond to a second-place finish? Do they consider the season a success? Even reaching the championship series has to be a better than 50th percentile outcome for every team in the league, right? |
6:47 |
: Everyone is a fan come playoff time, and so everyone is frustrated after a loss, but a few days after elimination, none of the analysts are too terribly upset |
6:47 |
: Bregman grounds out. Huge, huge escape for the Dodgers in that inning |
6:47 |
: such a huge out |
6:47 |
: Dave Roberts had to have been holding his breath there. |
6:47 |
: Assuming the dodgers win, Hill has some juice for tomorrow |
6:48 |
: Probably something they have in the back of their mind |
6:48 |
: What was leverage index for Bregman ab? |
6:48 |
: 2.96! |
6:48 |
: Dodgers win expectancy was 20% after the double. Now 40% |
6:48 |
: Gary Sanchez can’t catch, though. |
6:48 |
: Yes he can |
6:49 |
: He’s just a lot better at hitting |
6:49 |
: Is Springer that much better than Bregman to IBB him to load bases? |
6:49 |
: I didn’t like that part very much |
6:50 |
: Projected wOBA difference of 23 points. I haven’t run the math but it doesn’t seem like that’s enough to warrant clogging the bases |
6:50 |
: Dodgers don’t care anymore! |
6:50 |
: This feels like a situation you’ll see articles on tomorrow |
6:50 |
: Not anymore, now that the Dodgers escaped, probably |
6:50 |
: Puig just got under that |
6:51 |
: Is Chevy up there with Coke as a company that almost no one ever calls by its proper name? |
6:52 |
: Chevy appeals to people who wouldn’t very much like the sound of Chevrolet |
6:52 |
: I’m also listening to Effectively Wild right now for maximum Sullivan exposure |
6:52 |
: overexposed |
6:52 |
: Pederson very displeased with that |
6:52 |
: 2-and-0 fastball right down the middle. Popped it up |
6:52 |
: Explain why a Velander suicide squeeze wouldn’t have been a good play? |
6:53 |
: Verlander can’t bunt and McCann can’t run |
6:53 |
: What’s the ideal pitching plan to the end for LA here? |
6:53 |
: I don’t know. Another inning from Morrow. One from the plug-and-play bullpen. And the offense will have scored so Jansen can take the last two |
6:53 |
: This is verlanders game to win/lose right? He’s pitching till his arm falls off I assume |
6:54 |
: Something like that, as long as the game is close. I can see him getting up to 120 or 125 if it’s feeling okay |
6:54 |
: Gary Sanchez can’t catch passed balls. He can do everything else pretty excellently |
6:54 |
: I will say that watching him makes me somewhat skeptical of the framing numbers |
6:54 |
: How do you adjust dodgers win probability knowing they have Jansen? |
6:54 |
: Not very much |
6:54 |
: Eventually Sanchez is a DH, true? |
6:54 |
: Eventually everyone would be a DH |
6:54 |
: which team has a better chance of getting back to the world series next year? |
6:54 |
: Dodgers |
6:55 |
: Well, actually, I’m not sure. I think the Dodgers should be better, but the Astros have the worse division |
6:56 |
: Forsythe has such a good eye |
6:56 |
: His actual batting skills are mediocre, but he knows the zone so well |
6:56 |
: Once the season ends, do you watch any other sports? |
6:56 |
: Hockey |
6:56 |
: Forsythe whiffs. Verlander has thrown 69 pitches. He’s allowed no runs in five innings |
6:57 |
: Verlander on pace for a 124-pitch complete game. I think the Astros would let him do it |
6:57 |
: Impossible to be that coldly analytical about Springer vs Bregman when Springer has been ON FIRE. You go down with the other guy, even if he is also really good. |
6:57 |
: Bregman has also been good |
6:58 |
: If the difference is so small, doesn’t the force at any base increase the chance of getting out of an inning and makes loading the bases the right decision? |
6:58 |
: You give the pitcher zero margin of error. Taking away the walk is a pretty significant deal |
6:58 |
: So we picked the over on Rich Hill picking 4.5 inning. Did we win because he pitched 4.66? |
6:58 |
: Yes! |
6:59 |
: When will Verlander throw his last pitch?
6th (3.5% | 10 votes)
7th (21.6% | 61 votes)
8th (36.1% | 102 votes)
9th (35.1% | 99 votes)
10th or later?! (3.5% | 10 votes)
Total Votes: 282
|
6:59 |
: If the Dodgers win the Astros not scoring with 2nd 3rd no outs will be mentioned. |
6:59 |
: Poor Josh Reddick |
6:59 |
: Why are the Dodgers in such a rush to get to their struggling bullpen |
6:59 |
: Because, unlike the Astros, they aren’t so concerned about a small-sample slump |
6:59 |
: Has Verlander even gone to a 3-ball count yet? |
6:59 |
: I’m not sure he’s thrown three balls |
7:00 |
: Boy does Jose Altuve swing hard |
7:00 |
: Does Morrow bat when his place comes up? |
7:00 |
: What? No, of course not |
7:00 |
: Dodgers struggling with the high velo |
7:00 |
: In fairness, everyone struggles with the high velo |
7:00 |
: Especially when it’s thrown by Justin Verlander |
7:01 |
: They just said JV’s spin rate on fastball in postseason is higher than reg. Potential evidence of lowered seems?? |
7:01 |
: It’s very similar to what it was in September. Not sure there’s anything there |
7:02 |
: Am I the only advanced stats fan who hates spin rate? It means literally nothing to me. All that matters is the pitch’s movement, right? I get that it’s the spin which causes the movement, but I learn nothing by knowing the spin. |
7:02 |
: I liked being introduced to spin rate, but, yeah, personally, I find it’s more useful to look at the horizontal and vertical movement |
7:02 |
: Maeda getting loose already!? |
7:02 |
: All hands on deck |
7:03 |
: Yeah but Verlanders still on a leash. What would be the Astros plan if he gave up 2 runs and got into trouble? |
7:03 |
: McCullers, sounds like |
7:03 |
: Why do you think the bullpens have been getting torched this series? |
7:03 |
: The hitters are very good, and the relievers are tired |
7:03 |
: Wow an ad during a pitch. Is there any way fans can fight back against that? Boycott T-Mobile? |
7:04 |
: T-Mobile won’t be able to afford those ads much longer when they’re paying out $20,000 for every home run |
7:04 |
: Look at that slider to Correa. Beautiful |
7:04 |
: Morrow is refreshed! |
7:04 |
: Do you expect the Astros to make any big moves this offseason? |
7:04 |
: Yes |
7:04 |
: Biggest regression candidate in the majors has to be marwin right? |
7:04 |
: No |
7:05 |
: 99, but Gurriel got on top of it. And he’s booed! |
7:05 |
: Do you think Sanchez would be able to transition to 1st base when he ages? |
7:05 |
: Everyone could transition to first base |
7:05 |
: Double switch coming up. Forsythe out, Utley in. Morrow out, Watson in |
7:06 |
: Can Verlander steal the MVP if he goes 8+ innings scoreless? |
7:06 |
: I doubt it, not with only the one win |
7:06 |
: Jeff, could the north western united states support a hockey team? |
7:06 |
: Absolutely yes |
7:06 |
: If you could sum up this World Series in a haiku, what would it be? |
7:07 |
: Too difficult. Is “world” one syllable or two? |
7:08 |
: Someone pointed out to me (correctly) Rich Hill’s stats appear to hold up quite well through the 3rd time through the order. Is there a particular reason dodgers only trust him with two times through the order? |
7:08 |
: Because it’s the Dodgers, assume they’ve thought this all the way through |
7:08 |
: Not that I want you to just defer to authority, but they have a plan, and it was devised over dozens of meetings and conversations |
7:09 |
: And Watson hits the lefty he was brought in to face. Way to go, moron |
7:09 |
: How the fuck could it be two |
7:09 |
: Say “world” |
7:09 |
: It’s not an open-and-shut case, is all |
7:09 |
: Isn’t the reason to use Morrow early that he’s the biggest contrast to Hill (Jansen excepted)? |
7:09 |
: Everyone is a pretty extreme contrast to Hill |
7:10 |
: You say the Dodgers aren’t worried about a small-sample slump, but then you attribute lots of the offense in the series to exhausted relievers. Wouldn’t it be rational to avoid the bullpen if you believe those guys have nothing left in the tank? The hard part I guess is quantifying it, whether the loss of significantly shortening your pin outweighs avoiding a reliever with a dead arm. |
7:10 |
: I think the rest day was considered pretty important |
7:11 |
: I don’t know which team is more right. They’ve just shown opposite bullpen philosophies in the series |
7:11 |
: Watson could’ve used that 1-and-1 call |
7:11 |
: Maybe Hill’s stats hold up third time through BECAUSE he is so often pulled before the third time. When he is left in, it might be with favorable matchups or crappy hitters coming up. |
7:11 |
: Just because he has been good the third time through the order, doesn’t mean he is good |
7:11 |
: Kershaw warming up! |
7:11 |
: kershaw warming up |
7:11 |
: Two sources! We can run it! |
7:12 |
: Watson loses the 2-and-1 call because Barnes dropped it. Ouch |
7:12 |
: Kershaw getting warm? Hell yeah, chaos time |
7:12 |
: Line drive! Caught! Inning over! Baseball is ridiculous! |
7:12 |
: Okay, I follow baseball, I really do. But what in the world happened to Tony Sipp?? |
7:12 |
: Got bad |
7:13 |
: Why as Hill so angry to be taken out? Didn’t he know the plan? |
7:13 |
: Probably mostly angry to leave runners on the bases |
7:13 |
: Also don’t forget you’re legally required to call it the World Series presented by youtube TV. Fit that in your haiku |
7:14 |
sented by YouTube TV Has been quite draining |
7:14 |
: If at this point, Watson doesn’t have it, why not just take him out of the game? |
7:14 |
: No real reason to believe you can tell when a pitcher “has it” based on two or three pitches, unless the velo is way down or something |
7:15 |
: I dont understand why you needed to lift Morrow? McCann isnt a huge threat and it seems odd to replace Forsyth with Utley in the process |
7:15 |
: Just doing everything to maximize all the little chances with all hands on deck and the chance there’s no tomorrow |
7:15 |
: Thoughts on Joe Buck, Jeff? |
7:15 |
: Pretty good |
7:15 |
: By the way Roberts managed HIll this year, I think it’d be a case of confirmation bias? more likely to go deeper if he’s doing well in the first place. |
7:15 |
: Technically true for everyone |
7:16 |
: Would you change alliegences from the senators if the Seattle ice storms were an mel team? |
7:16 |
: You can’t just change teams like that |
7:16 |
: Do we blame Andrew Miller for way too many innings by relievers in this world series? |
7:16 |
: No |
7:16 |
: How do we feel about the strike zone tonight? Seems pretty solid, save that one Hill curveball |
7:16 |
: again, the umpiring has been great tonight |
7:16 |
: A hit! Barnes! |
7:16 |
: 2-and-0 middle-middle fastball |
7:17 |
: Does Morrow’s heavy usage this postseason affect his earning power this off-season? Not like he was the picture of durability before he pitched 147 days in a row… |
7:17 |
: Doubt it. Even Chapman wore down last year and he got paid |
7:17 |
: I don’t get that double switch. Morrow vs. McCann was a decent matchup, and they preemptively downgraded at 2B and are wasting one of their decent relievers |
7:18 |
: Astros don’t have a lefty reliever they like to face Utley, and they might’ve wanted to try to preserve some Morrow zip for Game 7 |
7:18 |
: You seem more interested in mountains than beaches, but have you ever considered visiting Assateague/Chincoteague MD/VA? |
7:18 |
: no |
7:19 |
: Baseball is weird. In 2008, Marwin Gonzalez couldn’t hit A ball pitching for the Cubs. At the same time, Rich Hill was busy pitching himself out of the Cubs organization because he couldn’t throw strikes. And yet, in 2017, they’re major players in the World Series. |
7:19 |
: I remember, years ago, when the Astros were terrible, a friend of mine was interviewing with the Astros, and he watched a game with the front office, and they were all making fun of how Marwin Gonzalez was so bad |
7:19 |
: Surprise! |
7:20 |
: At this point, does youtube even need advertising? Who the hell hasn’t heard of them? |
7:20 |
: Who hasn’t heard of Budweiser or Coors? |
7:21 |
: Utley HBP! We’ve got some action! |
7:21 |
: 1-and-2 count, too |
7:21 |
: Why does this feel like a Game 7? |
7:21 |
: Because this series has been absolutely out of its own damn mind |
7:21 |
: are you rooting for a game 7 |
7:21 |
: Unless you’re an Astros fan or a Giants fan, I don’t know how you’re not |
7:22 |
: Pretty good by his usual standards, or in general? |
7:22 |
: I think Joe Buck is pretty good for a national announcer |
7:22 |
: *Another* first-pitch swing from Taylor |
7:23 |
: 13 out of 26 in the series |
7:23 |
: Homered on the first pitch of the series, of course |
7:23 |
: (That the Dodgers saw, anyway) |
7:23 |
: According to the broadcast, Taylor can fly, but that might make it hard for him to touch the bases |
7:24 |
: BASE HIT |
7:24 |
: CHRIS TAYLOR |
7:24 |
: !!!! |
7:24 |
: I”M HAVIN FUN |
7:24 |
: TAYLOR! |
7:24 |
: I have to say, unless Taylor simply is not a good bunter … even I would bunt here |
7:24 |
: and I would have been wrong |
7:25 |
: Look how fast a ballgame turns |
7:25 |
: Vin Scully smiling in a Dodger Stadium suite. Good camera work |
7:25 |
: third time? |
7:25 |
: No one’s immune |
7:25 |
: Jeff I called it |
7:25 |
: Good job, Attack |
7:25 |
: Baseball! Love that things turn that fast! |
7:25 |
: What was it Shea Serrano wrote the other day? Baseball has two temperatures |
7:25 |
: This is the stressful one |
7:26 |
: I usually like stories like Taylor but he’s highly annoying. He needed to happen for someone like the Padres |
7:26 |
: Jose Pirela! |
7:26 |
: i guess its time to reconsider the verlander for 9 innings plan |
7:26 |
: McCullers should be getting warm an inning or two from now |
7:27 |
: Unless the Dodgers pull away |
7:27 |
: Wow. |
7:27 |
: Definitely thought Seager knocked that out by like four rows |
7:27 |
: Instead, deep sac fly. 2-1 Dodgers |
7:27 |
: That was close. |
7:27 |
: Wow that looked like a homer. I thought the balls were supposed to be juiced or something. |
7:27 |
: That ball went way further than it had any business going. |
7:27 |
: Disagree! |
7:27 |
: Bad slider from Verlander, looked like. Seager *just* missed. McCann thought that was gone |
7:28 |
: For those not watching the international feed: Vasgersian with the really premature home run call |
7:28 |
: Verlander due up second next inning. He’s currently at 87 pitches |
7:28 |
: Objectively, he should not bat |
7:28 |
: Bat Verlander next inning?
Yes (17.0% | 56 votes)
No (82.9% | 272 votes)
Total Votes: 328
|
7:29 |
: Why isn’t Smoltz talking about trusting your starters? |
7:29 |
: 94 MPH with 28 LA and only a 28 HP% |
7:29 |
: The Seager fly definitely looked better than it actually was. Just off the end of the bat or something, I guess |
7:29 |
: Not the best AB by Turner there |
7:30 |
: Goes without saying but getting that third run home is kind of important |
7:30 |
: Reddick not getting that run home such a huge inflection point. He’s been absolutely terrible |
7:30 |
: Unclutch! |
7:30 |
: Matt Vasgersian’s “Santa Maria” home run/anything remotely exciting call is so phony |
7:30 |
: I think it’s great but we all like different things |
7:31 |
: Objective, we should not pitch |
7:31 |
: Luke Gregerson has a 0.00 ERA! |
7:31 |
: Hooray, Luke Gregerson! |
7:31 |
: Probability that Hinch lets Verlander bat if he gets out of the inning with no more damage? |
7:31 |
: I’ll say 10% |
7:31 |
: Maybe 20% |
7:31 |
: He shouldnt have batted the first time either |
7:31 |
: Ehhhhhhh that one I don’t agree with |
7:32 |
: Bellinger whiffs. Good job by Verlander stranding that third run; bad job by Verlander allowing the first two runs |
7:33 |
: Bellinger looks like the guy who has a permanent spot on the pong tables at your college’s baseball frat |
7:33 |
: He has very smug eyebrows |
7:33 |
: Is it a playoff thing or is everyone just homer-prone? |
7:33 |
: Everyone is homer-prone in 2017 and the playoff hitters are great |
7:33 |
: The 5 foot difference between the Reddick foul ball not being a sac fly, even a foul sac fly, man |
7:33 |
: Not at all convinced that fly would’ve driven home McCann |
7:34 |
: Just saying, there has never been a playoff series in the MLB that has gone W/L/L/W/L/W/W |
7:34 |
: Do we actually believe Reddick is unclutch now? One of the few players actually one way or the other? It’s been a comical subplot to watch |
7:34 |
: I have no idea, but if anyone is actually meaningfully unclutch in the majors, it is Josh Reddick |
7:34 |
: This series demands that Verlander bat and get on base, right? |
7:34 |
: Good lord |
7:35 |
: Dodgers win expectancy is 71%. It was as low as 20% two innings ago |
7:35 |
: It was as high as 80% in that last half-inning… |
7:35 |
: Evan Gattis standing on deck right now |
7:36 |
: It’s funny — Verlander seems to be yanked, and his last pitch was 97.4 miles per hour |
7:36 |
: He’s a machine |
7:36 |
: Very close ball four to Reddick. That’s a very unfortunate walk for Watson |
7:37 |
: Can’t walk Reddick there left-on-left |
7:37 |
: Maeda is coming in! |
7:37 |
: Would you let Verlander bat if you were guaranteed he would pitch 7 and 8 scoreless? |
7:37 |
: Yes |
7:37 |
: Ugh Dave Roberts. Jeff, are there any good managers in baseball at this point? |
7:37 |
: Dave Roberts |
7:37 |
: Joc should’ve let it drop if it were foul, true or false? |
7:38 |
: Trust your ability to prevent Brian McCann from running 90 feet |
7:38 |
: Do you use Kershaw tonight or Kershaw tomorrow? Assume a 9 IP game |
7:38 |
: I lean toward tomorrow, since we’re already close to Jansen time |
7:39 |
: Linke to WE? |
7:40 |
: Speaking of WE, will we see a series long graph after it wraps up? I love the individual game graphs so I’m super exciting to see the series one |
7:40 |
: There should be an LVP award for the winning team in the WS. Reddick has drastically underperformed and people should know that! |
7:40 |
: Kenley looked pretty mortal on Sunday. Think Roberts tries to get two out of him? |
7:40 |
: Maybe more like four outs instead of six |
7:41 |
: Tony Watson unable to get the 2 guys he was brought in to get out |
7:41 |
: Good take on 1-and-0 by Gattis |
7:41 |
: Dodgers using Morrow and Kershaw will help Astros if there’s a game 7. |
7:41 |
: What wouldn’t help the Astros is losing Game 6 |
7:42 |
: i know you gotta manage to win tonight, but whew the dodgers may really need a big darvish start if they wanna win this series |
7:42 |
: Ditto Astros and McCullers, though |
7:42 |
: Wow, what a good 2-and-1 pitch |
7:42 |
: Great slider! |
7:43 |
: Just barely missed the DP, looks like |
7:43 |
: Would still be a good exchange for LA to have Gattis on first instead of Reddick |
7:43 |
: Verlander 12 ip 5 er. Kershaw 11.2 ip 6er. Not that different |
7:44 |
: I can’t get behind Dave Roberts as a good manager given the way he is trying to blow this series |
7:44 |
: As we say a million times a year, in-game strategy is far from a manager’s top responsibility |
7:45 |
: So if Gurriel faces Maeda, that might be pretty awkward huh? |
7:45 |
: Not as awkward as facing Darvish tomorrow |
7:45 |
: Justin Verlander threw 93 pitches tonight. Would the Astros use him in relief in a potential Game 7 à la Randy Johnson (2001 WS)? |
7:45 |
: I’m sure he’ll tell Hinch he’s available |
7:45 |
: I’m sure of it |
7:46 |
: Why does Reddick only have a -.004 WPA despite striking out in that key situation with two runners and no outs? |
7:46 |
: Because of the late leadoff walk |
7:46 |
: Oof. Single for Springer. Bad result that the ball got away from Seager, but that slider seemed drive-able |
7:47 |
: Fisher in, Gattis out |
7:47 |
: Shouldnt Kenley be in NOW? Facing the PH and top of the order, up 1? |
7:47 |
: There’s an argument! |
7:47 |
: who do you start tomorrow, darvish or kershaw? assuming both end up in the game somehow. |
7:47 |
: Darvish |
7:47 |
: Oh man, what a huge block by Barnes. That could’ve been a disaster |
7:48 |
: Fly out, Fisher moves up. Maeda didn’t want that pitch to be over the middle of the plate but it was down at the knees |
7:49 |
: So does Dave Roberts have any authority with how he manages his team? FG writers make it seem like all they do is lead the clubhouse |
7:49 |
: That’s most of what managing is |
7:49 |
: Especially for the Dodgers in the playoffs. At this point a lot of everything has been pre-scripted |
7:50 |
: Remember when Watson walked a struggling Josh Reddick to lead things off? |
7:50 |
: The craziness is starting to bubble. |
7:50 |
: Can we take a second to acknowledge how incredible Gattis’s backstory is? |
7:50 |
: So great |
7:51 |
: Feel like Maeda kind of got away with that 1-and-1 pitch |
7:51 |
: Biggest pitch of the game right here |
7:51 |
: Was that throw in the dirt? |
7:52 |
: What a pick! |
7:52 |
: Dodgers survive! |
7:52 |
: This feels like the series right? |
7:52 |
: There could be a whole other game tomorrow! |
7:52 |
: Since MVP is almost always on a playoff team, why isnt postseason play included? |
7:53 |
: Would give too much credit to a player’s team. It is in theory supposed to be an individual award so you want the playing field to be even |
7:53 |
: If Hinch pinchran for Gattis immediately, he goes to third on infield hit and scores on fly ball |
7:53 |
: Did that the other day too. Waited for the runner to get to second before subbing in Fisher |
7:53 |
: Astros have clearly decided it’s not worth pinch-running when a guy is still on first |
7:53 |
: Seems like almost 100% of managers get second guessed re bullpen usage. |
7:53 |
: Easiest thing for a fan to do |
7:54 |
: What’s his story? |
7:54 |
: Is Friedman actually making in game decisions? |
7:54 |
: Dodgers make group decisions with the coaching staff and FO |
7:55 |
: Do you think the AL MVP will turn out to be a lot closer than the way it’s being portrayed? |
7:55 |
: Yes! |
7:55 |
: This series has backstory to burn. Gattis, Hill, Puig Jansen, Turner, Taylor. |
7:55 |
: Now Jansen to finish? |
7:55 |
: I don’t know but I suspect the Dodgers would *like* to keep Jansen from throwing two innings |
7:56 |
: Dave Roberts seems unusually open with his emotions in the dugout for a manager |
7:56 |
: Apparently he makes sure to talk to every single player on the team before every single game |
7:56 |
: Even I’m overwhelmed |
7:57 |
: Another missed swing by a Dodger on a fastball over the plate. This time, Puig gets under it and pops out |
7:57 |
: seems like more runs will be scored in this game |
7:57 |
: I went to bed Sunday with the Dodgers up 3-0 in a kershaw start. I thought that was the series, I woke up to a 13-12. Im not ever going to assume any single play determines this series |
7:57 |
: Up through at least high school, first base was one of the most important defensive positions. The first baseman is involved in so many plays, and a ton of throws are tough to catch. Is first base so unimportant in the majors because the total amount of throws needing to be scooped is low, or because the variation in the ability of MLB players to scoop is low? |
7:58 |
: Little variation. If you’re a defensive player in the major leagues, you are extremely physically gifted |
7:58 |
: I don’t think the random DH could make a good first baseman, but the random any other infielder sure could |
7:58 |
: Is the astros bench so thin that Reddick is their best option? Seems like he’s really hurt them in big opportunities. Wouldn’t Marisnick or Fisher be a better choice? I know clutch isn’t predictive, but he’s the least clutch player in history, and the WS is extremely high-leverage |
7:58 |
: Marisnick is injured |
7:58 |
: In a sense, all we see directly is in-game stuff, so that’s what we go by |
7:59 |
: Oh, for sure. I get why fans are how they are with managers. The important stuff is basically hidden |
7:59 |
: Frustrating! So glad I don’t vote for Manager of the Year |
7:59 |
: Joc! |
7:59 |
: Pederson! |
7:59 |
: Insurance run! |
8:00 |
: JOC MVP. |
8:00 |
: JOC JACK! |
8:00 |
: oops hr |
8:00 |
: 1-and-2 fastball that got way too much of the plate |
8:01 |
: 102mph EV, 37-degree LA |
8:01 |
: Astros needed bullpen help at the deadline, so they got Liriano. Why not use him? |
8:01 |
: He hasn’t been any good |
8:01 |
: Puig’s reaction>Dave Roberts reaction |
8:01 |
: oof. not a graceful HR trot |
8:01 |
: Marwins reaction was super weird there |
8:01 |
: Pederson looks so happy when he homers. MVP of the Dodgers |
8:02 |
: Favorite emotions of the series: Pederson when he does well, Correa when any Astro does well |
8:02 |
: Random question: what happens if a player misses a base during a home run trot? |
8:02 |
: Nothing good, if the other team notices |
8:03 |
: what did you vote for? |
8:03 |
: I had AL Rookie of the Year |
8:03 |
: Are votes casted after the WS ends? |
8:04 |
: All votes are cast between the end of the season and the start of the playoffs |
8:04 |
: At what point do you sit Jansen? Or does he for sure pitch no matter what once he’s warm? |
8:04 |
: You don’t use him if you’re up like five or six |
8:04 |
: I think the umpire’s voice just cracked with that called strikeout |
8:04 |
: I’m not an astros fan, but pederson is being a showboating POS right now. |
8:04 |
: Oh please |
8:05 |
: Both teams have been showing lots of emotion. It’s the World Series! It’s an elimination game! |
8:05 |
: TIL Joc Pederson’s full first name is Joc |
8:06 |
: Just got a text from my mom. She says Pederson is her new favorite player specifically because he was skipping |
8:06 |
: Emotion wins fans! |
8:06 |
: This series isn’t over until every Astros reliever allows a homer |
8:07 |
: Joc is kind of a “woo girl” when he gets really excited |
8:07 |
: Am I going to be reading stories about Pederson’s HR celebration tomorrow or is it going to be ignored because there was no bat flip and he’s not latino? |
8:07 |
: It’s actually going to be mostly ignored because if the Dodgers win, then almost as soon as this is over, all attention goes right to Game 7 |
8:07 |
: So little time to actually…care…about this, if you know what I mean |
8:08 |
: Jansen is on the mound. He’s going to try to go two. This is what I get for looking at my text messages |
8:08 |
: If Seager doesn’t hurt his back, Joc never sniffs the playoffs, right? |
8:09 |
: If Seager doesn’t hurt his back, *Culberson* never sniffs the playoffs |
8:09 |
: Morrow is warming up in the bullpen getting ready to come in for game 7. |
8:09 |
: Dodgers getting their Jansen dream so far. Four pitches, two outs |
8:10 |
: when are awards announced? |
8:10 |
: Somewhere in mid-November |
8:10 |
: We have been blessed with two straight amazing World Series. |
8:10 |
: Players are having fun! WON’T SOMEBODY THINK OF THE CHILDREN!? |
8:10 |
: Can we please stop talking about showboating in baseball?? |
8:11 |
: I’m all about getting mad when players show up their opponents. When they’re just happy, let them be happy |
8:11 |
: Strikeout! Jansen is good again! |
8:11 |
: Seven pitches, seven strikes, three outs. |
8:11 |
: Is showboating better or worse than casual racism? |
8:11 |
: McCann needs to stop Pedserson from having too much fun. |
8:11 |
: What does TIL mean? |
8:11 |
: Today I Learned |
8:11 |
: Has Fox’s music when cutting away to commercials been 100% U2 this entire series or just 95%? |
8:11 |
: At some point it was like 100% The Killers |
8:11 |
: maybe that was earlier in the playoffs |
8:12 |
: what kind of person names their kid Joc? |
8:12 |
: He has a brother named Tiger |
8:12 |
: No he doesn’t |
8:12 |
: He has a brother named Tyger |
8:12 |
: I can understand robot umps, but why do people want robot players? |
8:13 |
: Liriano has good numbers against lefties his whole career, do you discuss your recency bias only when it’s convenient for you? |
8:13 |
: I’m not the one making decisions. It’s the Astros who think Liriano is good enough to make the roster but bad enough to basically avoid |
8:14 |
: Jeff, why do you think baseball in particular has players who are explicitly concerned with “playing the right way”? |
8:14 |
: Because baseball used to draw primarily from a different culture than the other major sports |
8:14 |
: Even with the pitching changes, good pace tonight |
8:14 |
: Do you like going to Jansen for 6 outs here? |
8:14 |
: I don’t love it, but I get it |
8:14 |
: If the Dodgers score more in bottom of 8th, is there any chance that Jansen does not pitch the 9th? |
8:15 |
: If they have a huge inning and Jansen has to sit for a while, I could see them taking him out. But it would take a whole bunch |
8:16 |
: Charlie Culberson. Another hit. What a world |
8:16 |
: Your buddy Grant has Tweeted that the Dodgers haven’t blown a 3-1 lead at home all year. So all Dodgers fans can rest easy. |
8:16 |
: Game is so exciting Larry King stood up! |
8:17 |
: My brother’s mad that I won’t concede that they should have left Verlander in, what should I tell him? |
8:17 |
: They made the right decision. Scoring a run was too important |
8:17 |
: If the Astros lose, Verlander has to be denied Hall entry, right? If they lose the series, he’s tarred and feathered and run out of town with Reddick, right? |
8:17 |
: Can’t pitch when it matters! |
8:18 |
: Kershaw pitched a day ago. How long can he go tomorrow if Kenley holds the game? |
8:18 |
: An inning or so |
8:18 |
: So the plan tomorrow would be Darvish for 4, Kershaw for 2, then Morrow/Maeda/Jansen for 3? |
8:19 |
: I’m sure they’d like to get 5 from Darvish. Wood might make an appearance in there somewhere |
8:19 |
: Expect Dave to probably write about this if the Dodgers hang on |
8:19 |
: Do Astros take pitches to drive up Jansen’s count for tomorrow? Or jump early good pitches? |
8:19 |
: No, they want to win |
8:19 |
: Bregman has made some very memorable picks at third base in these playoffs |
8:20 |
: 7 Game series are fun but they also seem so….inconclusive. It’s hard to tell who was the better team and any stupid fluke play can decide the entire series |
8:20 |
: Neither one of these teams is better than the other. They’re both absolutely amazing. All Game 7 would decide is who won Game 7, which is both the least and the most important thing |
8:21 |
: Based on this Jansen performance bring Giles in |
8:21 |
: I would’ve liked to see him here in the 8th, but, whatever, Gregerson is fine |
8:21 |
: Joey Votto appreciates Joc’s emotion, Joey Votto is the best. |
8:23 |
: Seager with the Bellinger-style strikeout |
8:23 |
: Jeff, does WE take pitcher availability into account? For example, say the Dodgers used Jansen earlier in the game. Would their WE be less than it is now? |
8:23 |
: nope |
8:23 |
: Can I just say I’m really glad to have a well-pitched game after the nonsense that was Game 5? |
8:24 |
: Hockey, with fighting and enforcers, has also traditionally tried to enforce playing “respectfully” |
8:24 |
: Yet players celebrate literally every goal with a big group hug |
8:25 |
: I have no clue why they rostered Liriano if they’re not going to use him. Tyler White would have been much gooder it seems. |
8:25 |
: Do the Dodgers explore the Corey Seager trade market this offseason to make room for Charlie Culberson? |
8:25 |
: Jeff why are there so few black catchers |
8:25 |
: Systemic racial biases |
8:26 |
: Is Jansen available tomorrow or do they look to Kershaw for 7-9? Is it dependant upon pitch count tonight? |
8:26 |
: Gotta think Jansen will be available in 24 hours |
8:27 |
: How valuable would Taylor be if he were still a SS with his production? |
8:27 |
: He’s not much less valuable being a floater |
8:27 |
: Liriano coming in. Not Giles. They REALLY hate Giles |
8:28 |
: How much should a pitcher’s postseason performance mean towards his HOF candidacy? |
8:28 |
: Not very much, unless it’s exceptionally good |
8:28 |
: JV has 0 WS wins in 6 starts. Where’s the narrative? |
8:28 |
: Is Hill available for tomorrow? |
8:28 |
: I wouldn’t be shocked if he made a lefty appearance over Watson |
8:29 |
: The MLB playoffs aren’t designed to identify the best team, they are designed to be fun as hell |
8:29 |
: What team do you think has the best chance of challenging these two? Nats? |
8:29 |
: Indians |
8:29 |
: If a fully rested non-playoff team…let’s say the Brewers…played a game 7 vs. one of these teams at their current energy levels, who would win? |
8:30 |
: That’s a good question! I assume still the team in the World Series, but it could be really close if the other team were staying stretched out and prepped |
8:30 |
: Gregerson is gonna have more innings pitched than Giles in this World Series, huh? |
8:30 |
: Someone needs to write Seager a note excusing him from missing class tomorrow. |
8:30 |
: The difference of baseball excellence and intelligence between Sportsnet’s panel of Votto and Gregg Zaun is astonishing |
8:30 |
: free Votto from his Red prison |
8:30 |
: How would you expect Darvish to pitch tomorrow? Was his Game 3 performance because of the slick ball? |
8:30 |
: My default assumption is that he will be good. I think Game 3 was a fluke |
8:31 |
: It was very bad, but I think it was a fluke |
8:31 |
: Am I having vision problems or does Gregerson’s stuff look pretty good? Lots of movement there |
8:31 |
: He always runs extremely low contact rates. Good reliever! |
8:31 |
: Why did everyone hate the high scoring of Game 5? It was weird, but its not like every game has been like that. It was a one off and really fun/unique to watch |
8:31 |
: I don’t think everyone did |
8:31 |
: I think most people loved it |
8:31 |
: Contrarians are more likely to speak up |
8:32 |
: Pace has really fallen off here. Is that all about Culberson? |
8:32 |
: It’s the fear effect |
8:32 |
: All those stranded runners earlier in the game for Houston really looming large right now. |
8:32 |
: Josh Reddick doing nothing with 3-and-0 and two runners in scoring position looks so bad |
8:32 |
: If the Astros lose this series, how much should we make of their ridiculous home/away win/loss differential? |
8:32 |
: nothing |
8:32 |
: Liriano throwing some pretty good sliders |
8:33 |
: It seems like a lot of the time the celebration is only hated when it’s batters. Weird double standard |
8:33 |
: No one ever seems to mind when the pitcher shouts or screams. I guess those celebrations are less sustained than a whole trot |
8:34 |
: When was the last African American catcher in MLB? Charles Johnson? |
8:35 |
: He’s the last everyday catcher, yeah. Russell Martin is African-Canadian |
8:35 |
: Liriano makes Bellinger look bad. Liriano is useful! On to the ninth |
8:35 |
: Is the systemic racial biases thing serious? |
8:35 |
: Yes |
8:35 |
: If the Dodgers dont score here, this long delay is not good for Jansen |
8:35 |
: Dodgers would’ve probably preferred to just go 1-2-3 |
8:35 |
: why isn’t baseball 2-2-1-1-1 in a seven game series? |
8:36 |
: Too many travel days |
8:36 |
: Where do you think Bryce Harper goes in 2018 Jeff |
8:36 |
: New York |
8:36 |
: the Yankees part of New York |
8:36 |
: tomorrow will be interesting. Morrow and Maeda both with 14 pitches tonight. Jansen with at least 20 you would think…. |
8:36 |
: approaching worst case scenario for lad: a long inning where they dont score |
8:37 |
: Worst-case scenario would’ve been Bellinger drilling a foul ball off of Kenley Jansen’s right hand in the dugout |
8:37 |
: Everyone is “available” tomorrow the question is whether its a good idea to use them |
8:37 |
: Managing! |
8:37 |
: Should I skip class tomorrow for Game 7? |
8:37 |
: I’d skip surgery |
8:37 |
: Does your GF strongly dislike these evening WAS chats? |
8:38 |
: On the contrary, I think she likes having most of the place to herself |
8:38 |
: Where do you stand on Big Papi’s HOF credentials and how much do his post-season heroics factor in? |
8:38 |
: He belongs; quite a bit |
8:38 |
: tomorrow is starting to feel like some crazy season finale where everyone makes a guest star appearance |
8:38 |
: Who other than Joc Pederson is a WS MVP candidate assuming LA wins? |
8:38 |
: The hero tomorrow |
8:39 |
: Liriano is the 49th player to play in this series. I watch an unfathomable amount of baseball to anyone who is not in this chat. What on earth is a Juan Centeno |
8:39 |
: The first major-leaguer to throw out Billy Hamilton stealing! |
8:39 |
: Kenley Jansen is good. One out |
8:39 |
: If Kershaw definitely pitches tomorrow, why wouldn’t he start? Don’t you want to get as many innings from him as he can? |
8:40 |
: Want to maximize the leverage of his appearance |
8:40 |
: oooof, Mary Hart got old! |
8:40 |
: So will you |
8:40 |
: Larry King was already old when the Dodgers moved to LA from Brooklyn. |
8:40 |
: As a long-time Twins fan, it is VERY weird for me to see Francisco Liriano pitching in the World Series right now |
8:40 |
: How have the ratings been this series? |
8:40 |
: Very good |
8:41 |
: Is there a stat for pitchers that’s simply percentage of batters retired? Is that just OBP against? Seems like it would be instructive |
8:41 |
: Yeah, basically 1-OBP |
8:41 |
: There’s the good cutter |
8:41 |
: If you had to pick a side for SliderGate would you pick Olney or Verducci ? |
8:41 |
: I think it’s right to be generally skeptical of these things |
8:41 |
: But I’m glad Verducci wrote his article |
8:41 |
: Oof, great cutter. Two down |
8:42 |
: How much is another game “worth” in revenue for the home team? For the network? |
8:42 |
: Several millions of dollars |
8:42 |
: I don’t remember the exact breakdown but you can Google it. I’ve seen articles! |
8:42 |
: Bruce Maxwell |
8:42 |
: Bruce Maxwell! |
8:43 |
: Re: earlier, yes, I had forgotten Bruce Maxwell! |
8:43 |
: Would Hinch have left Verlander in if there had been a DH? |
8:43 |
: Probably |
8:43 |
: Judge Harper Frazier best outfield ever? |
8:43 |
: Frazier isn’t good yet |
8:44 |
: Wow, Beltran went to his eyes |
8:44 |
: We have a seventh game! |
8:44 |
: Jansen looked dominant this time around. Assume he’s good to go tomorrow |
8:44 |
: Rosenthal reporting that the Dodgers believe in momentum if they win tonight! |
8:44 |
: I’ve already called in sick for tomorrow. |
8:44 |
: Jansen is so calm. |
8:44 |
: I have a feeling tomorrow will be one of the craziest games ever |
8:45 |
: On replay, that last pitch was *literally* at the level of Carlos Beltran’s mouth |
8:45 |
: I think you can lock in the centeno 13th inning HR tomorrow |
8:45 |
: Did you know the Centeno fact or surreptitiously google |
8:45 |
: I remembered! Because sadly it is his one thing |
8:46 |
: I made plans for tomorrow night that don’t involve baseball, accidentally. Should I be rooting for a late comeback here? |
8:46 |
: Everybody point and laugh at Matt! |
8:46 |
: Baseball fans deserve a Game 7 after all the nonsense we’ve put up with this series |
8:46 |
: It will be very sad if tomorrow’s game is a blowout. Needs to be decided in the 9th. |
8:46 |
: For his size kenley repeats his awkward delivery extremely well |
8:46 |
: Looks like Jansen is back to being unhittable. And 2 innings on 15 pitches – bodes well for him pitching tomorrow |
8:47 |
: who’s down the chat tomorrow please tell me Paul |
8:47 |
: Pretty sure it’s going to be Dave |
8:47 |
: 14 Ks by Bellinger the most since at least 1985 |
8:47 |
: All right, time to wrap this up |
8:47 |
: Thanks everybody. One more night of baseball! |
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
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