Justin Verlander: Hall of Famer?
If you tune into the World Series tonight, chances are pretty good that you’ll be able to watch at least one future Hall of Famer — and likely, even, that you’ll see several.
Of the participants in this year’s Series, Clayton Kershaw is already a lock. Both Carlos Beltran and Chase Utley are in the twilight of their careers but have strong cases for inclusion without doing any more work. Among younger players, Jose Altuve is already off to a great start, and early-20-somethings Carlos Correa and Corey Seager have certainly made their mark.
Meanwhile, there’s one player expected to appear in tonight’s game who occupies an in-between category. On the one hand, he hasn’t yet established unassailable Hall of Fame credentials and is past his peak. On the other, he seems poised to compile a few more reasonably productive years. Justin Verlander has a decent case for the Hall right now, but the next few seasons will determine how persuasive his case ultimately is.
Verlander has just 188 wins, which is important to part of the electorate. Surely, he’ll add to that total in the coming years, but wins are unlikely to be a big part of any Hall of Fame argument for the 34-year-old. Similarly, Verlander’s 3.46 ERA and nearly matching 3.47 FIP don’t seem all that great, either. It makes him look, at first glance, a lot more like David Cone and Dwight Gooden than Hall of Famers of the last half-century. The only recent Hall of Fame starting pitcher with an ERA close to Verlander’s career mark is Tom Glavine, and he reached the magical 300-win threshold. Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling have had a lot of trouble earning the requisite votes with similarly high ERAs. However, looking solely at ERA and FIP doesn’t account for the run-scoring environment.
Verlander has recorded a FIP- of 82 and an ERA- of 81 in 2,545 regular-season innings, meaning he’s been roughly 20% better than average over the course of his career. Pitching like that in one season makes a pitcher an ace for a year; doing it for an entire career should make him a Hall of Famer.
Here’s a list of pitchers since 1947 who’ve made it to 3,000 innings with an ERA and FIP both 15% better than average: Bert Blyleven, Kevin Brown, Roger Clemens, Bob Gibson, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Mussina, Gaylord Perry, Schilling, Tom Seaver, and John Smoltz. Given his performance to date, Verlander looks likely to join that group. That said, there’s no guarantee: CC Sabathia looked like he’d qualify for such a list up through 2012, but then he endured a few down seasons. Felix Hernandez also appeared en route to satisfying both criteria, but he hasn’t been good in several seasons.
As for how Verlander compares to Hall of Famers by WAR right now, “pretty well” is the answer. The table below includes Hall of Famers elected by the writers since 1967, as well as Verlander, using my Hall of Fame points system, which incorporates peak value.
| WAR | HOF Points | HOF Rating | HOF Rating Rank | Cy Young | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Johnson | 110.6 | 99 | 104.8 | 4 | 5x |
| Greg Maddux | 116.7 | 90 | 103.4 | 5 | 4x |
| Bert Blyleven | 102.9 | 76 | 89.5 | 6 | No |
| Nolan Ryan | 106.7 | 68 | 87.4 | 7 | No |
| Steve Carlton | 96.5 | 75 | 85.8 | 9 | 4x |
| Gaylord Perry | 100.1 | 65 | 82.6 | 12 | 2x |
| Tom Seaver | 92.4 | 69 | 80.7 | 13 | 3x |
| Pedro Martinez | 84.3 | 72 | 78.2 | 14 | 3x |
| Bob Gibson | 82.3 | 67 | 74.7 | 15 | 2x, 1968 MVP |
| Fergie Jenkins | 80.1 | 61 | 70.6 | 18 | 1971 |
| Don Sutton | 85.5 | 42 | 63.8 | 23 | 5 top-5 finishes |
| John Smoltz | 79.6 | 47 | 63.3 | 24 | 1996 |
| Robin Roberts | 74.7 | 51 | 62.9 | 25 | 5x Top-10 MVP |
| Phil Niekro | 78.1 | 44 | 61.1 | 26 | No |
| Warren Spahn | 74.8 | 42 | 58.4 | 29 | 1957, 3x Runner-up |
| Juan Marichal | 61.2 | 42 | 51.6 | 39 | No |
| Sandy Koufax | 54.5 | 46 | 50.3 | 42 | 3x, 1963 MVP |
| Justin Verlander | 56.9 | 43 | 50.0 | 45 | 2011 Cy Young, MVP |
| Tom Glavine | 66.9 | 30 | 48.5 | 46 | 2x |
| Don Drysdale | 59.3 | 37 | 48.2 | 47 | 1962 |
| Jim Palmer | 56.6 | 33 | 44.8 | 54 | 3x |
| Whitey Ford | 54.9 | 28 | 41.5 | 74 | 1961 |
| Early Wynn | 58.6 | 24 | 41.3 | 75 | 1959 |
| Red Ruffing | 56.1 | 19 | 37.6 | 100 | Pre-Cy Young |
| Catfish Hunter | 37.2 | 15 | 26.1 | 199 | 1974 |
| Bob Lemon | 32.3 | 15 | 23.7 | 249 | 3x Top-5 MVP |
Verlander fits comfortably between the middle and bottom third of this group. Right now, he’s a little below the average and median of the players included here, which is around 63. With a solid finish to his career, he could move up that list a little, though he would have to finish very strongly to get into the top half.
Failing to reach the top half doesn’t reduce a player’s Hall of Fame chances entirely. Every pitcher up there made it to the Hall of Fame, and every one made it through BBWAA voting (which traditionally has higher standards than the Veteran’s Committee). Being slightly below the average of those group is hardly going to drag the Hall of Fame down. The problem isn’t necessarily Verlander’s place on this list; it’s the other players who aren’t on it.
Here, for example, are the 10 players above and the 10 players below Verlander by HOF rating. Hall of Famers are highlighted in orange.
| Player | WAR | HOF Points | HOF Rating | HOF Rating Rank | Cy Young |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Reuschel | 68.2 | 41 | 54.6 | 35 | No |
| Jim Kaat | 70.9 | 37 | 54.0 | 36 | No |
| Hal Newhouser | 60.7 | 47 | 53.9 | 37 | 2x MVP |
| Rube Waddell | 60.0 | 47 | 53.5 | 38 | Pre-Cy Young |
| Eddie Plank | 67.8 | 37 | 52.4 | 39 | Pre-Cy Young |
| CC Sabathia | 65.3 | 39 | 52.2 | 40 | 2007 |
| Juan Marichal | 61.2 | 42 | 51.6 | 41 | No |
| Bob Feller | 62.6 | 40 | 51.3 | 42 | Pre-Cy Young |
| Andy Pettitte | 68.9 | 33 | 51.0 | 43 | No |
| Sandy Koufax | 54.5 | 46 | 50.3 | 44 | 3x Cy Young, 1 MVP |
| Justin Verlander | 56.9 | 43 | 50.0 | 45 | 2011 Cy Young, MVP |
| Bob Friend | 61.1 | 37 | 49.1 | 46 | No |
| Paul Derringer | 62.4 | 35 | 48.7 | 47 | Pre-Cy Young |
| Tom Glavine | 66.9 | 30 | 48.5 | 48 | 1991, 1998 |
| Don Drysdale | 59.3 | 37 | 48.2 | 49 | 1962 |
| Eppa Rixey | 65.9 | 30 | 48.0 | 50 | Pre Cy Young |
| Dwight Gooden | 56.7 | 39 | 47.9 | 51 | 1985 |
| Jerry Koosman | 62.6 | 30 | 46.3 | 52 | No |
| Bobby Mathews | 54.2 | 37 | 45.6 | 53 | Pre-Cy Young |
| Ed Walsh | 49.2 | 41 | 45.1 | 54 | 2x MVP runner-up |
| Jim Palmer | 56.6 | 33 | 44.8 | 55 | 3x Cy Young |
Eleven of the 20 names above are in the Hall of Fame with CC Sabathia still active and Andy Pettitte yet to reach the ballot. It makes sense, then, that Verlander already represents a borderline case, with his Cy Young Award and MVP from 2011 potentially pushing him over the top.
Borderline doesn’t really get you into the Hall of Fame anymore, though. The list above starts at number 35. Of the 34 pitchers above this group, 26 are in the Hall of Fame. The only player ranked better than Verlander who has both (a) won a Cy Young Award and (b) reached the Hall of Fame ballot and not been elected is Roger Clemens. One of the pitchers not included in the Hall is Clayton Kershaw. Another is Roy Halladay, who hasn’t yet reached the Hall of Fame ballot. Tommy John and Mickey Lolich are ranked 30 and 32, and Verlander should pass both with a few more good seasons. Of the other three, Kevin Brown was dismissed off the ballot too soon, and Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling haven’t been elected yet.
That last group of three speak to the difficulties that starting pitchers currently face when trying to get to the Hall of Fame. Maybe you can argue that a lack of awards has held back Mussina and Schilling. Maybe it’s the ballots that have become too full while voters contend with how to handle Steroid Era candidates. Maybe it’s a lack of understanding regarding the Steroid Era and the increased difficulty of pitching during that time. Maybe Schilling’s awful political statements hurt him. In any event, the standard for starting pitchers to make the Hall of Fame is ridiculously high right now.
In 10 years, when Verlander is on the ballot for the first time, the landscape will have changed significantly. Clemens, Mussina, and Schilling will be off the ballot if they aren’t already in the Hall. During the next decade, only Roy Halladay and potentially CC Sabathia are going to have decent arguments for inclusion. The wave featuring Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz will have faded into memory a bit, giving Verlander a very realistic chance at making the Hall of Fame. Perhaps Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer will make his career seem less special than it does now, but Verlander’s career is likely to speak for itself.
Justin Verlander’s case for the Hall of Fame right now is a borderline one. He’s had a career similar to a handful of pitchers who’ve made the Hall of Fame, but he’s also had a similar career to a handful of players who have not. He also has 129 innings of postseason baseball, with a 3.46 FIP and 3.07 ERA, which isn’t going to hurt. With a few more solid years, he’s definitely going to be worthy of making it to Cooperstown. Hopefully the ballot and the standards for voting will have changed enough by then so that all players who are worthy receive the necessary consideration. If so, Verlander will be making a speech in a dozen years or so, maybe talking about the World Series he’s playing in right now.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Question; Verlander has finished obscenely close to winning the Cy Young twice in addition to his one win. If he had 3 Cy Young awards, but all other stats were the same, would he be a lock? And what does that say about how we should or shouldn’t weight seasonal awards?
Similarly, Curt Schilling not winning Cy young in ’01 or ’02 due to Randy Johnson’s absurd performance penalizes him a lot.
’01: 22-6 256.2 IP ERA-66 FIP-69 fwar 7.2 RA9-WAR 8.9
’02: 23-7 259.1 IP ERA-75 FIP-55 fwar 9.3 RA9-WAR 7.6
For the past decade, the best fwar from a single sesaon is 8.6 for ’09 Greinke.
Going by RA9-WAR, there are only four seasons that outperform Schilling’s 8.9 mark.(’15 Greinke, ’09 Greinke, ’15 Arrieta, ’11 Verlander).
Yes. Verlander is a Hall of Famer. But it seems crazy to have Verlander in the Hall until Schilling is inducted.
Or Mussina
We’ve had the Schilling discussion in comments here before (and it’s happening again below). Agree or disagree with the writers, it seems pretty clear his politics are at least part of the problem. The Hall has a clause about character, the Hall is voted on by the writers, and the writers find Schilling’s politics abhorrent (as do I, so my biases are clear). I don’t think you can hold Schilling’s exclusion against another pitcher, unless that pitcher is also an outspoken purveyor of conspiracy theories and insults transgendered people with no provocation.
I’m not even saying that to argue the merits of his choices, simply to point out that he does these things for no reason other than he wants to. It’s his choice to stake his public reputation on these things, and it’s the writers’ choice to say the Hall’s character is better without him.
For me, even just as an on-field performer Schilling comes up behind Bonds, McGwire, Clemens, and Rose. If we’re going to push for a loosened interpretation of the character clause I’d rather focus on some of the game’s all-time icons, and if Schilling benefits from it that’ll be just fine.
Here’s the issue though: Schilling is an awful guy but as far as we can tell he had excellent “baseball character”. He won the Branch Rickey award. He won the Roberto Clemente award. He won the Gehrig award. He won the Hutch award. Despite holding anti-gay views, he has never disparaged teammates for being gay (and actually made clear they deserved to have the same clubhouse status as the other players). There’s no evidence he cheated, steroids or otherwise. He didn’t stand in the way of integrating baseball. He had long debates with Gabe Kapler about politics, but as far as we can tell they got along great. There is no evidence that Schilling’s “baseball character” was anything other than exemplary (although he did get made fun of for being media-hungry by his teammates).
I think the character clause is being interpreted a little too loosely if we discuss things that (a) didn’t affect the on-field accomplishments, (b) happened after leaving the game, (c) have nothing to do with baseball at all, and (d) doesn’t involve violent behavior (Urbina, Bradley, Knoblauch, Puckett, Dykstra, etc).
I think you bring up a good point that by the numbers (and before his many post playing career controversies), Schilling was a boarder line case anyway. He was really going to have to ride the 2001 postseason and the bloody sock hard to get voted in. People act like he is a surefire can’t miss HOFer (like a Bonds or a Clemens for example) that is being excluded only for his political/social stances. I am sure there are plenty of writers out there who are not voting for him because they do not believe his performance on the field merits inclusion.
I think the issue for some voters is that he “only” has 216 wins. But he’s #14 in fWAR since 1948 above Bunning, Spahn, Glavine (although Glavine’s a weird case), and Niekro, and within 3 fWAR of Bob Gibson and within 5 of Pedro Martinez (both of whom are no-doubt Hall of Famers). And it isn’t just because he played a long time either–he had fWAR seasons of 8.3, 8.2, 7.2, and 9.3.
His playoff record is punctuated by the Bloody Sock (which is one of the all-time great performances) but his playoff ERA is under 2.30 and his playoff WHIP is under 1. The guy is one of the better playoff pitchers out there.
He has 3000 strikeouts too, if you care about that sort of thing.
Man, Schilling was good. If Schilling is a borderline case, making a case for someone like Verlander is going to be tough. We’ll probably just stop inducting pitchers altogether (Kershaw excepted).
The character clause did not keep Cap Anson, Rogers Hornsby, or Kenesaw Landis from the Hall. Bill Conlin is in the Hall on the JG Taylor Spink award. I understand nothing is ever perfect, but to keep a pitcher as great as Schilling out because people don’t like what he thinks and says seems so far out of line with how the Hall has always been. The character clause has never kept great players out
BTW if anybody is visiting Cooperstown for the first time, do yourself a favor and stay at the Otesaga. Bring your golf clubs, the Leatherstocking course is great’ with an island green on Otsego Lake. Definitely visit the American Hotel in nearby Sharon Springs for dinner, and try the maple cake.
tl;dr: no
Solid analysis
As a fan, I want to see the best players of my time in the hall. Verlander has been a legend for a long time, one of the top pitchers of this era. I guess I’m a big hall guy… It’s the same reason I want the steroid era guys in too. I want the hall to bring back each person’s memories of the stars of their time, and Verlander is definitely one.
What awful political statements by Schilling? The extreme leftist bloggers on this site are sickening. How about a little diversity and hire someone who does not tilt so far left? But I guess that would go against the left’s standing policy of freedom of speech only as long as you agree with us. Just absolutely pathetic.
Thanks for your input Bob. Really appreciate the time you took to share your perspective!
I think a lot of users are clamoring for an extremist, anti-Islam, racist nut-job to join the FanGraphs staff. I’m sure you guys are getting bugged about this on a daily basis.
Seriously. Gotta get a conservative regression analyst to balance things out. Look at all the liberal tables of numbers in this post, while they deny freedom of speech to the conservative bar charts. Just pathetic.
Scattergrams, as libertarians, don’t have nearly enough representation. Just because they don’t feel the need to fall neatly into any “line” with the rest of you sheeple doesn’t mean they don’t have any value. #axisrightsfirst
I’d personally rather that FanGraphs fleece an entire small state out of tens of millions of dollars in support of a half-baked (yet surprisingly entertaining!) venture into video games.
Friends of mine insist that game was actually really good.
You sound upset, snowflake
I feel like the odds that this is the real Bob Davidson are unusually good.
He threw out Youppi over the mascots support of nationalized healthcare
Just a few:
1) Comparing Muslims to Nazis, which got him banned from the Little League World Series (http://time.com/4010430/espn-curt-schilling-nazi-meme/)
2) Insulting the transgender community and insuating that they are all pedophiles, which got him fired from ESPN. (http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/04/curt-schilling-anti-transgender-facebook-post-denies-defends-post-espn-mlb)
3) Defending Donald Trump’s desire to date a 10 year old girls. There was nothing left to fire or ban him from after points numbers 1 and 2 (http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/300924-curt-schilling-defends-trump-after-questionable-comment-about)
Ironically, none of these are the ones that really got him penalized–it was his statement about lynching journalists that really got the voters’ attention. Nothing like threatening your voters to sink your hall chances.
(I say this as a person who thinks he is (a) an easy choice for the Hall of Fame and (b) that Schilling is a despicable human being)
Ben Chapman for Hall of Fame!
I’ve been thinking for a while now that Verlander is gonna be the one to change the electorate’s standards for SPs. By the feel test he has been an easy call for enshrinement. The postseason narrative now is just locking it down. So even when he retires with ~230 W and 3.60 ERA he’s gonna sail in. And then there’s gonna be a bunch of second looks at the Mussina/Brown/Schillings of the last 20 years.
Don’t forget Johan Santana as a potential HOF. He was as good as anyone and his career ended with injury, which isn’t a death sentence. He is also basically the only guy to ever come back from a major shoulder surgery and do anything. That no-hitter which essentially disintegrated what was left of his left shoulder was a great moment in baseball history. Not really trying to hijack the thread, but he was really great. I will be selling this idea of the next decade I am sure.
Yeah, I think Santana comes up just short, but he at least has a case. No way he makes it over the current standard for pitchers though.
Another interesting one is Javier Vazquez. His 54 fWAR is right on the borderline, but he always underperformed his peripherals, as evidenced by his 43 bWAR total. But he is 30th all time for career strikeouts and 50th all time for K/9. The bizarre thing about Vazquez is that I believe he should have debuted on the most recent ballot but he wasn’t even listed. Nor is he listed on the HOF website’s future eligibles section. I doubt Vazquez would even get the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot, but he should at least *be* on the ballot. Tons of guys with way worse careers are every year.
You can’t evaluate some guys with cumulative stats, which is what WAR is. There are two ways to make the hall – longevity and sustained peak. Johan’s sustained peak was a lot better than CC’s. He was a much better pitcher than CC. For my money, Johan was in the top 3 pitchers of the 2000s. He was a perennial Cy Young candidate. How many 2X Cy Young winners are not in the HOF? He led the league in WHIP 4 times in a row while leading in Ks three times in a row. He led the league in FIP, Ks, and WHIP for three consecutive years – how that was not 3 straight Cy Youngs, I will probably never understand. If That type of player is not in the HOF, then the HOF isn’t worth much… then I remember that it is not worth much. It also does not include the all time hit or HR leaders…
I know that I am not arguing with anyone in particular, but this type of thread is where cases for and against can gain some momentum. This is one of those players where people need to think outside the box and consider his actual body of work. He was never surrounded by any controversy. I respect the hell out of all the attempted comebacks that he made as well.
Re, all-time hit leaders: Don’t worry, Ichiro will be in the Hall someday. 🙂
Good one 🙂
If you told me back in 2008 that there’d be any debate over Sabathia, Santana, or Halladay, I would’ve been shocked. I still think Halladay will get in fairly easily. Sabathia is right on the borderline (just like Verlander right now), while Santana will probably start out weak, and have a slowly-developing HOF case as the ballot clears up. I’m not Santana will ever get in, but I think he’s going to spend the full 10 years (or close to it) on the ballot either way.
I would have no problem seeing Verlander in the Hall of Fame. To me, the distinguishing factor in borderline cases is elite greatness of the peak. Verlander has that whereas some other pitchers like Pettite or Mussina really don’t in my mind.
I will say I think you can get bonus points for having massive performances in huge situations. Bumgarner gets some of these extra immortality points for his World Series moments. If Verlander dominates tonight and wraps up the series, then I do believe that helps a bit.
If you didn’t consider Mussina’s peak elite or great, then I’d question your ability to evaluate baseball players. Mussina was a dominant force, and should have had at least one, if not more Cy Youngs. He should have won in 2001 when he led the AL in WAR, for instance. He was a fantastic pitcher who was underrated because he didn’t have high win totals, but that’s not his fault.
There’s no way Verlander should be in, if Mussina isn’t a HoF. Verlander is not remotely as good as Mussina.
I don’t think I understand the down votes for this comment. The tone could have been more constructive, granted.
But it’s hard to imagine any objective player-evaluation framework that has Verlander in and Mussina out.
Verlander seems hugely inferior to Mussina, Schilling, Brown, and pretty clearly below Halladay and Pettitte as well. Honestly, I think Sabathia has a better case – and he doesn’t seem to get nearly the same love as JV.
As of now I’d put Verlander around that Cone/Saberhagen tier. With time to move up.
Here’s a list of 25 contemporary-ish starting pitchers who are not in the HOF. Nothing here screams out that Verlander should move toward the top of the heap:
Name IP fWAR bwAR Average WAR/100 IP
Roger Clemens 4,916 133.7 139.4 136.6 2.78
Mike Mussina 3,562 82.2 82.7 82.5 2.31
Curt Schilling 3,261 79.8 80.7 80.3 2.46
Kevin Brown 3,256 76.5 68.5 72.5 2.23
Tommy John 4,710 79.6 62.3 71.0 1.51
Rick Reuschel 3,548 68.2 68.2 68.2 1.92
Roy Halladay 2,749 65.2 65.6 65.4 2.38
Andy Pettitte 3,316 68.9 60.9 64.9 1.96
CC Sabathia 3,317 65.3 60.7 63.0 1.90
Luis Tiant 3,486 55.2 66.1 60.7 1.74
David Cone 2,898 56.0 61.7 58.9 2.03
Chuck Finley 3,197 56.9 58.5 57.7 1.80
Clayton Kershaw 1,935 58.0 57.4 57.7 2.98
Brett Saberhagen 2,563 55.3 59.1 57.2 2.23
Justin Verlander 2,545 56.9 56.9 56.9 2.24
David Wells 3,439 58.3 53.5 55.9 1.63
Mark Buehrle 3,283 51.9 59.2 55.6 1.69
Zack Greinke 2,455 53.2 56.9 55.1 2.24
Tim Hudson 3,126 51.3 57.2 54.3 1.74
Dwight Gooden 2,800 56.7 48.2 52.5 1.87
Felix Hernandez 2,502 51.5 52.2 51.9 2.07
Roy Oswalt 2,245 52.4 49.9 51.2 2.28
Bartolo Colon 3,315 51.4 47.5 49.5 1.49
Cole Hamels 2,362 45.6 52.7 49.2 2.08
Max Scherzer 1,897 43.7 44.6 44.2 2.33
I don’t know that half of those guys should not be in…
Schilling and Mussina should be locks for the Hall. I think that if Verlander pitches for another 4-5 years or so he’ll have a case to be in the Halladay-Pettite tier.
Totally agreed. I guess I am just confused as to why there’s all this ardor for Verlander in the Hall if the tier he aspires to reach is below a tier that itself still isn’t in the Hall! (Other than the fat that it gives John Smoltz a reason to say “Justin!” a lot on TV).
The above formatted terribly and I don’t know how to fix it, so here it is distilled down to one data column:
Name Average
Roger Clemens 136.6
Mike Mussina 82.5
Curt Schilling 80.3
Kevin Brown 72.5
Tommy John 71.0
Rick Reuschel 68.2
Roy Halladay 65.4
Andy Pettitte 64.9
CC Sabathia 63.0
Luis Tiant 60.7
David Cone 58.9
Chuck Finley 57.7
Clayton Kershaw 57.7
B. Saberhagen 57.2
J. Verlander 56.9
David Wells 55.9
Mark Buehrle 55.6
Zack Greinke 55.1
Tim Hudson 54.3
Dwight Gooden 52.5
Felix Hernandez 51.9
Roy Oswalt 51.2
Bartolo Colon 49.5
Cole Hamels 49.2
Max Scherzer 44.2
If you don’t think that Justin Verlander has been and is a superior pitcher to Andy Pettitte, then I don’t know what to tell you. And this is coming from a lifelong Yankee fan. Pettitte was really good, JV is great.
Pettite pitched for a *long* time, but his peak wasn’t that great. Based on his overall value, he’s an easy choice. Based on his peak, ehhh…at least we’re not talking about Jamie Moyer.
I like to contrast him with Halladay, who had an incredible peak but who retired a little earlier than most hall of fame careers. Halladay’s a little below the threshold for overall career value but his best years were stunning. Halladay’s career was nearly on the same level as Pettite, despite 600 fewer innings.
Comparing Verlander to both Pettite and Halladay is a little more illuminating. Verlander’s peak was better than Pettite’s, but not nearly as good as Halladay’s, and he’s still 200 innings shy of Halladay’s career. Verlander’s Hall of Fame case is not written in stone yet, but he trudges along and tacks on another 10 WAR or so he’s easily a stronger candidate than Pettite and about the same as Halladay. As of now, he’s probably similar to Pettite although he gets there in a very different way.
Personally I’d support the induction of everyone on that list through Hudson. I could easily be talked into Gooden. Felix and Hamels are right on the border and only need another decent year or two.
I don’t think it is hard to understand why this comment would gather negative attention. Subjective statements like, “Verlander is not remotely as good as Mussina” are just begging for down-votes.
I like Mussina and I think he can be in the HOF, but he was rarely in consideration for the best pitcher in the league – so you are questioning my evaluation skills as well as everyone else who had a vote during that era. I always liked Mussina, but he was more along the lines of durable and always gave his team a chance to win, than a dominant force. Mussina’s case is based on longevity rather than dominance – I think there is a place for both in the hall of fame. This will be a bit more inflammatory, but I don’t think he would have much support at all if he didn’t close out his career on a high note in NY. Unfortunately, the way that your career ends seems like it is worth just as much as the peak.
I think your last statement is very problematic. I don’t see what Verlander and Mussina have in common. Pull up their baseball-reference pages, which does a much better job of denoting league leaders – which I find very relevant to a discussion of greatness.
To be clear, I say put them all in!
So my personal definition of “ace” is a pitcher who you can expect to give you 5 fWAR or more regularly. The kind of guy you move mountains to get on your team. Mussina topped the 5 fWAR limit ten (ten!) times. If someone is that good for that long, I think that’s a pretty impressive “peak” too.
(I’ll also say that while Mussina is a Hall of Famer in my book, someone like Schilling–whose peak was higher–is an easier case for me)
The problem with WAR is that you are really putting a lot of weight into innings. I don’t think you and I disagree on anything here. I hope Mussina makes it. I like league leaders and top 5 Cy Young finishes a lot myself.
Funny how the party line is WAR. Discussion is discussion except when it comes to WAR.
Thus far, Verlander looks pretty statistically similar to Halladay. I think Halladay belongs in the Hall, but I don’t expect him to get elected. The voters have raised the bar too high.
Maybe the best thing that can happen for these guys is a few more years of juiced baseballs, which will make the stats they’ve already compiled look much better in comparison. I think some voters never adjusted to the fact that an ace pitcher doesn’t need to have a 2.20 ERA.
I agree with that comp. It will be a shame if Halladay doesn’t make it. he was one of the great pitchers of a decade long run – few players can ever make that claim.
Kevin Brown was using steroids. I agree that he is underrated and was definitely better than one ballot and out, but if Roger Clemens is not in yet then Kevin was never getting in. At least he has not been clogging the ballots for years when he had no chance of induction.
When estimating Verlander’s chances for the Hall of Fame, I feel like it’s really important to point out how dominant he has been the past two years. I think it’s easy to think of him as a solid pitcher who is past his prime. That’s simply not true. Over the past 2 years, he’s the #6 pitcher in MLB in fWar. He’s #3 in bWar, with only Kluber and Scherzer ahead of him. And I don’t think anyone would argue the claim he’s been the best pitcher in the postseason this year. The truth is he’s been pitching at HOF level the last 2 years, not like someone on the downside of his career. I think this, along with his determination to pitch for a long time still, has to be factored into his chances for the HOF. All that is to say: I think his chances are very good.
This is the key, right? Verlander’s career is not over. Even if he is not dominant from here on out, I would not be surprised to see him hang on for the next 4 or 5 years, put up another 12-15 fWAR or so just be grinding out innnings, and sail in.
If Verlander’s arm falls off tomorrow I think he is pretty clearly not in. He had a really impressive peak and he’s pitched for a while, but he’s not in the Halladay zone yet. However, I do not believe his arm will fall off tomorrow.
To me, it is a shame that a productive twilight is what makes Hall of Famers.
I think it is a legacy of the counting stats thing that we associate with Hall of Famers. There was so much mystique around milestones of hits and homers and wins.
I would tend to agree that a “best seven seasons” or some calculation method that weights peaks higher is probably more relevant than total WAR, although most of the players we consider obvious Hall of Fame choices have both.
I think that all of the best players to play the game should be in the HOF. I don’t have a recipe for how that is supposed to look. I get that people want objective measures, but I don’t believe in it. I really do believe that the way your career closes and the team that you end up with carries a lot of weight, which I completely disagree with. I don’t want to start any holy wars of naming specific examples, but I could!
The problem with my definition is, how do I distinguish a one-year fluke from a guy with legitimate skills and performances? Anyone can fluke into a good year. For me, a handful of seasons at the top of the league would be good enough. I don’t know that I really have ever argued against anyone being inducted into the HOF – I only argue that more should be in there. Greatness comes in all shapes and sizes…
Verlanders post-season performance will be the cherry on top of what I believe is a HOF career.I noticed you touched briefly on the other starting pitchers who will be eligible when Verlander debuts on the ballot. (2028 I’m guessing). On my model I have Verlander(67%) ahead of 4th year candidate CC Sabathia(65%), first year candidate Zack Greinke(61%), and first year candidate Cole Hamels(27%). This is an advantage for Verlander as his resume will tower over the competition enabling Verlander to be elected in his second year of eligibility.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WRMzbOP0iZTuBvcSPgG1_09RGzeClPfJX9mgy58FIxo/edit?usp=sharing
Verlander has the best resume among starting pitchers in the game outside of Kershaw. Greinke I’ll admit is close and perhaps Mad Max can top Verlander with a few more dominant seasons, but the MVP/post season dominance sets him apart from those two. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if Verlander is a first ballot HOFer.
Yeah I think we’re going to have a hard time electing another starting pitcher, other than Kershaw, for an entire 15 year (roughly of course) period of time if Verlander doesn’t get in. And things are trending away from starting pitchers amassing even these levels of WAR going forward. Mike Mussina has little to do with it. They pitched in different eras and comparisons to contemporaries are better than comparisons across very different playing environments. The trend to fewer and fewer starting pitchers who can put up great numbers and big innings totals, and sustain them, makes me think the standards will have to change. Over the past decade, Verlander is pretty obviously the second best starting pitcher, though C.C. has some overlap and a solid argument as well.
I believe that the top players at their position in their time should be considered Hall of Famers, and I don’t understand why people try to do a ton of historical comparisons without measuring where Verlander lies among his contemporaries.
A fair point. I think a lot of voters care about whether a player was ever considered the best at his position, and I think Verlander definitely was for a few years there in between Halladay and Kershaw. That’s a standard that puts Johan Santana’s candidacy in an interesting light as well, as he was the best for a few years before Halladay. Before that it was a mishmash of the big four Clemens/Johnson/Maddux/Martinez.
Santana’s problem is longevity. He had some amazing seasons but his career longevity was derailed early and that hurts him.
Santana was hands down the best pitcher in his league for three consecutive years – I would bet that everyone else in that club is a HOFer. The guy tried as hard as he could to come back. Its not like he quit when he stubbed his toe. He never tailed off either, which is pretty badass! He just couldn’t do it anymore. Even when his arm was attached by a few threads, he was still pretty good. I love me some Johan!
As you say he’s right on the border if he retired today, and he appears to have plenty left in the tank. Ultimately I think he makes it in with relative ease. But yes, hopefully Schilling, Mussina, Halladay, and Sabathia will have overcome the current ridiculously high standard for SP induction before we get to that point.
I have him as a yes. The quick litmus test I use is 5 top 5 MVP or Cy Young finishes. He’s going on his 6th top 5 Cy Young finish, along with an MVP.
Think it’s too easy to attain 5 top 5’s ? It’s not. Check for yourself.
Kershaw is not a lock if he retires after this season, he needs to keep playing. If he got in, he would be the non-relief pitcher with the fewest innings pitched in the Hall. The only person close would be Dizzy Dean. He still has 400 innings fewer than Koufax, who was considered to have a short career by HoF standards. Kershaw’s rate stats and accomplishments are all easily there, but longevity is also an important aspect. He could still get in if he retired now, but he would be a huge outlier. He realistically needs to pitch three or four more years to be an unquestionable lock.
As for Verlander, no way. Mike Mussina has similar career ERA- and FIP-, 90 more career wins (apparently some voters still care about that…), 1000 more innings pitched, and 25 more fWAR and bWAR. Even Mussina is having trouble getting in. I think he eventually will, but he’s already 4 years into his ballot timeframe. Verlander still has more work to do.
Kershaw is a lock, dude. He would have to get caught gambling to not make the HOF!
Even though his statistical profile is superior with fewer years of experience, I feel like there’s some Jack Morris to his candidacy. Ask someone 30 years older than me if Jack Morris should be a Hall of Famer, they’ll say “of course, it’s Jack Morris!” even if the stats don’t quite support it. I feel the same way about Verlander. Like, of course Verlander is a Hall of Famer, it’s Justin freaking Verlander!
Hopefully he puts together ~3 more strong years to make it a no brainer.
Justin Verlander – career K/9 = 8.54, BB/9 = 2.73, ERA = 3.46
Jack Morris – career K/9 = 5.83, BB/9 = 3.27., ERA = 3.90
Jack Morris’ best season by WAR would be JV’s 5th best
Yea, they are very similar….
I think the point was, Verlander is a case where we tend to ignore the stats because we believe it doesn’t represent reality. Verlander’s case, as of today, is not quite there. That Morris was not even close doesn’t change the comparison that both of their names vary emotional resonance for us and we will ignore evidence that contradicts our viewpoint that they are all time greats.
And I think deltaclown acknowledged the point you were trying to make, too.
Hey thanks for reading the first sentence of my post. The rest of the sentences are pretty good, too. You should consider reading them.
Edit: Actually, having re-read my post, this response doesn’t work since the first sentence acknowledged Verlander’s superiority. Maybe you skipped the first sentence?
I wonder if the “fame” thing still matters to voters, as it pretty clearly did in the cases of Drysdale and Brock. Verlander is, I think, a lot more well known than Roy Halladay.
Anyways, given the post-season performance and the fact that he has just had two of the best seasons of his career at ages 33 and 34, it is extremely likely that he will get in, in my view.
Verlander is NOT a lot more well known than Roy Halladay.
Roy Halladay married another nonpracticing Mormon from his hometown.
Verlander married Kate Upton.
And you thought fame was all about baseball! Ha! This is the age of the internet!
He probably meant, well known to baseball fans, which is true. Everyone knows/knew who both were/are. On a related note, I recently asked my wife if she knew that JV was married to KUp – she had no idea.
Verlander is a borderline HOFer -right now-. If Verlander has a normal year in 2018, he’ll hit 200 wins and 2600+ K, which would put him into the top 25.
But if we project five years out at 15 wins and 200 K per year, we get 263 wins and 3416 K, the latter of which has him dancing on the edge of the top 10 all-time. Add the one Cy Young and MVP and second place Cy’s in the two closest votes in Cy Young history and that’s pretty solid. He might even get another ring or two with the Astros, which would set him up with Schilling in terms of championships. If Verlander stays healthy, he could go into his early 40s, which would give him a shot at 300 wins and a chance to overtake Bert Blyleven for 5th with 3700 K.
Additionally, his post-season stats hold up well. Verlander has pitched in 22 postseason games (21 starts plus the one relief appearance this year against Boston). He got knocked around in his early postseason starts in 2006 and 2011 (7 starts), where he either wasn’t particularly effective or gave up meaningless runs that artificially inflated his ERA (a game against Texas in 2011 where he gave up a 3-run HR late to blow his quality start out of the water). But once he figured out the postseason starting in 2012, he’s been lights-out in 15 appearances with only one really bad game, Game 1 in the 2014 World Series. In those 15 appearances, he’s 8-3 with a 1.93 ERA; compare this to Schilling, who in 19 postseason appearances was 11-2 with 2.23 ERA. Verlander’s postseason career WHIP is 1.02 compared with a regular season mark of 1.18. Likewise, his postseason SO/W ratio is 3.75 compared with 3.13. Verlander has become the personification of an ace in the postseason.
Kershaw is a fine pitcher, but to call anyone with less than 150 wins a “lock” for the HoF is a joke! No one ever seems to mention that AL pitchers invariably have higher ERA’s but are always compared to NL pitchers who have much easier jobs to do. Perhaps someone should look at Verlander’s stats in inner-league play… especially away games without the DL. National League pitchers have an almost guaranteed out every 2-3 innings, and even when they pinch hit for the pitcher it often means a better pitcher is being removed for a lesser replacement for a chance at a hit — so the NL pitcher has a clear advantage. If I had to pitch one guy in game #162, with the winner going to the playoffs, there is NO-ONE in baseball over the last 10 years I would pick over Verlander. (And, keep in mind, in the last 10 years the Tigers had a starting line-up that included multiple Cy Young winners. Lest we forget, Scherzer won his CY in the NL after departing the Tigers where he was always #2 or 3 to Verlander. Likewise, Porccello was #4 or 5 to Verlander and he has won a Cy Young since leaving also — and he won his even thought Verlander had a better year abd had 14 1st place votes… because a few HoF voters are idiots and left Verlander off their ballots.)