2017 ZiPS Projections – Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the very famous pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past few years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
Cincinnati produced the worst BaseRuns record in the majors last year, tied with a very rebuilding Philadelphia team. The club’s field players weren’t really the problem, however, recording just a few wins less than a league-average unit.

The projections here reflect the general competence of the club’s position players. After Joey Votto (592 PA, 4.6 zWAR), who unsuprisingly receives the top wins forecast in the organization, there exists a collection of reasonably useful pieces. The front office probably deserves credit, in fact, for some of its discoveries. Adam Duvall (549, 1.9), Scott Schebler (564, 1.7), and Eugenio Suarez (608, 2.3) all profile as roughly league-average types, for example, despite having appeared on zero top-100 lists collectively as prospects.

This isn’t to suggest that there’s no room for improvement among the batting types here, but rather that “average” is probably not an unreasonable outcome for this group.

Pitchers
Reds starters, on the other hand, produced the worst WAR figure last season among major-league rotations. And, in what is likely not a promising development for 2017, Dan Straily — one of only two starters to record more than a single win last year — was sent to Miami in a trade this offseason. Anthony DeSclafani (171.2 IP, 2.6 zWAR) receives the lone projection greater than two wins. Only one other pitcher likely to appear in the Opening Day rotation, Brandon Finnegan (151.1, 1.6), earns more than a single win.

The club’s bullpen, meanwhile, was historically bad in 2016, producing the second-worst collective WAR figure of this dumb century. While the rotation doesn’t appear to have benefited from any substantive reinforcements, the relief corps does seem to have become stronger as the 2017 season approaches. The installation of Raisel Iglesias (65.0 IP, 72 ERA-, 1.0 zWAR) into a full-time relief role is almost sufficient to render the entire unit serviceable. Drew Storen (55.2, 84, 0.5) is also helpful in that regard.

Bench/Prospects
Because he’s a corner-outfield prospect who’s exhibited little power, Jesse Winker (509, 2.2) doesn’t earn much in the way of effusive praise. Dan Szmborski’s computer suggests he’s a league-average player already, though. The organization features a number of other possibly useful players who are nevertheless omitted from the depth-chart graphic below, Dilson Herrera (495, 1.8) and Jose Peraza (593, 1.9) most notable among them.

While the Opening Day rotation surely has its flaws, there’s some interesting depth in the organization. Cody Reed (133.1 IP, 1.2 zWAR) and Jackson Stephens (144.0, 1.1) receive the third- and fourth-best wins projections, respectively, among pitchers. Prospect Tyler Mahle (141.1, 0.8) also earns some promising numbers.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Reds, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.05 ERA and the NL having a 3.97 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.