Archive for February, 2017

Who Needs a New Pitch the Most?

I love it when research underlines conventional wisdom. Like when Mitchel Lichtman found that, the more pitches a pitcher had in his arsenal, the better his chances the third time through the order. Even if it was only on the order of a few points of weighted on base average, it was a real finding that functions as a virtual nod towards all those scouts and pitching coaches who’ve wondered about a pitchers’ third and fourth options. You might not need a changeup specifically, but you need other pitches if just to put more doubt in the hitter’s mind.

Given that finding, I thought it might be fun to try and use it in reverse. Who were the worst pitchers in baseball last season when it came to the third time through the order? Who saw their talent drop off the most upon seeing a batter the third time?

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:00
Travis Sawchik: Welcome to Sawchik Chat V

12:01
Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started, shall we?

12:01
Erik: Roughly what percentage of MLB hitters would benefit by swinging with more of an uppercut? Are we talking everybody except Billy Hamilton, or more like a quarter to a third of hitters? And what profile of hitter would fit into that group?

12:03
Travis Sawchik: (The swing path was the subject of my Monday morning post, FYI …. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/can-more-mlb-hitters-get-off-the-ground/) Erik, I would say the majority to vast majority of hitters would benefit form more loft and fly balls. Hamilton is one that probably would not, but he’s an exception. Hey, Christian Yelich, get the ball in the air!

12:03
Bork: Are you surprised that Hammel only received $16M? That elbow must be a big question mark.

12:03
Travis Sawchik: There’s gotta be something going on with the arm/shoulder/elbow, right?

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Can More MLB Hitters Get Off the Ground?

In his spartan hitting facility in a San Fernando Valley industrial park near Los Angeles, private hitting instructor Doug Latta said something of a hitting “think tank” developed.

There in a windowless, warehouse-like structure that encased two batting cages and a gym, Latta, a former high-school coach — along with other hitting instructors from the private to amateur and professional ranks — gathered on the Astro-turf carpet on fold-out chairs to discuss their craft. Latta kept about 30 chairs on hand for larger crowds. Don Slaught, a former major leaguer turned instructor, was a frequent visitor and in one meeting debuted his swing analysis computer system, Right View Pro. Greg Walker, who had served as a hitting coach with the White Sox and Braves, was another regular contributor. During one meeting, he told a story about how a new player had asked him a question. His response: “I don’t know, let’s go to the cage and find out.” That story resonated with Latta. He saw it was not about knowing all and having an answer for everything. Rather, coaching was about searching for an answer that works for a hitter.

In conversation with FanGraphs last week, Latta said there was “flow” during the talks. The meetings exposed what Latta describes as a “big hole” in how hitting is taught at all levels of the game. Those conversations, combined with thousands of hours of working with hitters and poring over video, led Latta to a hitting philosophy.

In simplistic terms, the philosophy is this: the optimum swing plane is an uppercut, which is often at odds with much of conventional wisdom. The principles are basic: stay square, stay balanced, stay relaxed, and get the ball in the air.

The philosophy helped two of Latta’s clients, Justin Turner and Marlon Byrd – for Byrd it was between PED suspensions – reach new levels of performance.

Others, like J.D. Martinez and Josh Donaldson have found success, through a similar philosophy – based largely on getting balls in the air – by working with private instructors. Donaldson credited so much of his success to his swing change that he chose his private instructor – Bobby Tewksbary – to pitch to him in the 2015 Home Run Derby.

The 2013 Oakland A’s won 96 games in part via a fly-ball approach, posting the top ratio on record since GB/FB metrics have been tracked. A fly-ball swing plane is especially effective against two-seam, sinking fastballs, as noted in The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball. Despite these successes, Latta’s philosophy, and those similar to it, haven’t been widely adopted in professional baseball.

“You would be surprised at how much resistance [exists],” Latta said. “We talk about swing planes, how we initiate the swing, getting the ball in the air. That stuff is antithetical to most people out there doing training.”

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FanGraphs Audio: The 2017 Over/Under Prospect Game

Episode 714
Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen is the guest on this edition of the pod, which also represents the inaugural edition of the Over/Under Prospect Game.

Here’s how to play:

  • Contestant A nominates a rookie-eligible player.
  • Contestant A also sets an over/under figure for that player’s WAR in 2017.
  • Contestant B chooses the over or under.

For this inaugural edition, both Longenhagen and the idiot host have nominated five players, for a total of 10 overall. Click here to see the results.

A reminder: for the cost of a very expensive cup of coffee, readers can experience FanGraphs without ads. Click here to learn more about an Ad Free Membership.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 38 min play time.)

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Sunday Notes: Walsh’s World, Reds Best, MLB Politics, more

Sixty-three plate appearances into his big-league career, Colin Walsh is two percentage points above batting average oblivion. A Rule 5 pick by the Milwaukee Brewers a year ago, the switch-hitting utility man logged just four hits in 47 official at bats. That computes to .085, which is as bad as it looks. Over the last 100 years, 5,842 non-pitchers have come to the plate at least 60 times, and only Enrique Cruz (.083) has a lower mark.

Walsh is a bit sheepish about his BA — he has an ego like the rest of us — but don’t expect him to lose any sleep over it. He intends to get back to The Show, and even if he doesn’t, he’s proud of where he’s been.

“No one can take away the fact that I played in the major leagues,” said Walsh, who inked a minor league deal with the Atlanta Braves over the offseason. “In and of itself, that is a great accomplishment. If it ends up being my only major league experience, it’s still something that 99.99999 percent of people who ever played baseball haven’t done. I don’t think struggling in the major leagues is something I’ll go through life being looked down upon for.”

His career was on the upswing a year ago. Blessed with impeccable plate discipline, he’d earned the Rule 5 opportunity by slashing .302/.447/.470 for Oakland’s Double-A affiliate in 2015. Read the rest of this entry »


The Best of FanGraphs: January 30-February 4, 2017

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.

MONDAY
A Champion’s Outfield: Where Line Drives Go to Die by Casey Boguslaw
Coincidentally, it’s just a few miles north of where fun goes to die.

Maybe the Rockies Are Contenders in 2017 by Dave Cameron
Everyone knows the Rockies aren’t contenders. What this post presupposes is…

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Effectively Wild Episode 1015: You Need to Know Nakashima

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan fixate on their new baseball obsession, NPB shortstop (and offensive outlier) Takuya Nakashima. Then they discuss prospect terminology and the nebulous significance of the “ceiling.”

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The Remaining Free Agents vs. the Padres

Look, over the horizon. You can just barely make it out with the naked eye. Can you see? It’s baseball, just coming ’round the bend. Sunday marks the end of football, and then we’ll have pitchers and catchers reporting to Florida and Arizona. We even get a treat in the form of the World Baseball Classic this year. Real, competitive baseball, and then Opening Day. It’s so close that you can taste the sunflower seeds and Big League Chew.

That doesn’t mean that everyone has a job yet, though. There are still some fairly notable players on the free-agent market. Not all of them are that great, but there are always a few February stragglers. So, like any self-respecting baseball fans, we’re going to arbitrarily put the best of them (based on MLB Trade Rumors’ list of remaining free agents) into a lineup, and then we’re going to see how they stack up against the Padres, using our Depth Chart projections. Why the Padres? Because we’ve currently got them projected for 66 wins, fewest in the league as of today. I’m not going to put together a whole 25-man roster out of these guys, because I value my sanity and, to a slightly lesser degree, yours as well. At least, though, we’re going to find out how a lineup of misfit toys looks against that of the San Diego Dads. Why the hell not? Buckle up.

First, I’ve identified the top free agent at each position. Below that, I’ve included a table featuring a head-to-head comparison between the top free agent and Padres likely starter at each position.

Catcher: Matt Wieters

Wieters is the clear option here, which isn’t saying much. The former future “Mauer with power” has seen his career degrade and his bat erode. Baseball Prospectus’ framing metric wasn’t fond of his work last year, or the year before that either, so his 1.9 WAR projection is probably a bit generous. That being said, it’s him and a bunch of aging career backups, so Matt Wieters it is. He’s projected for an 89 wRC+, though, so let’s not get too excited just yet.

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The Diamondbacks Built a Super Rotation, Sort Of

Our extremely early 2017 standings projections have the Diamondbacks located a clear step behind the Giants and a couple of notches behind the Dodgers in the NL West, but with a 77-win projection, they’re firmly planted within striking distance. Even if the projections were on the money regarding the club’s true talent, a few wins of random overperformance and a couple of deadline deals could easily vault them into the Wild Card race. The Diamondbacks’ roster is respectable. No one expects them to produce a 95-win season, but you could imagine exciting games in September.

One thing about the club that’s particularly interesting going into the season is their starting rotation. The projections put them somewhere in the middle of the pack for 2017, and while you can definitely argue about precise rankings, you probably couldn’t find anyone willing to put them higher than eighth or lower than about 20th. Even if you don’t put much stock into the exact calculations, that generally passes the sniff test.

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The Shortstop Profile and Power Spike

I can confirm I have brought at least three new readers to FanGraphs: my mom, my dad and my neighborhood crossing guard, Damon.

I live seven miles south of downtown Pittsburgh in the suburb of Mt. Lebanon, which counts Mark Cuban (let’s get him an MLB team) as one of its more successful high-school graduates. For western Pennsylvania, it’s a dense community, 33,000 living in six square miles. The suburb grew along a trolley line that took commuters into the city. It’s a walking community. You can travel by foot to coffee shops, the post office, boutiques, restaurants, bars, and every school in the district. There are no school buses, but there are crossing guards.

For nearly the last two years, since my routine began of taking – or rather, pushing – my two-year-old on a daily stroll to our Main St., I have spoken nearly daily with Damon, a retired gentleman who is perhaps the top crossing guard on the planet. He has been kind to my two-year-old, and he is also an enthusiastic baseball fan. When I was covering the Pirates, we spoke often of the team. He’s has been kind enough to follow me on my new adventure here, and our baseball discussions have broadened beyond the local Pittsburgh club. Damon cordially disagreed with my my post Monday asserting this is the Golden Age of shortstops.

Damon saw Clemente throw. He attended games at Forbes Field. He knew a local scout who signed Ken Griffey, who saw Josh Gibson hit. His father took him via train to see the Yankees play in Cleveland. He saw shortstops contending with a Forbes Field infield that was much poorer than the Augusta National-like playing surfaces today’s players enjoy. Damon has watched much more baseball than I have, and he believes previous generations produced superior defensive players.

There is no argument I have to refute those observations. We can only imagine how efficient Dick Groat would have been on a modern playing surface. Our defensive metrics today are imperfect. It’s difficult to compare different generations of players. And using WAR to compare is also imperfect as it’s comparing contemporaries against contemporaries. While it seems like there is rare amount of talent congregated at shortstop in today’s game, that does not necessarily tell us how Francisco Lindor compares to Honus Wagner. How do you compare past generations that did not have the benefit of modern strength training and conditioning practices?

But I think what is true is that the type of athlete playing the position is changing.

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