2018 World Series Game One Live Chat

8:06
Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, it looks like I’m throwing out first pitch here! Welcome to our World Series Game 1 chat.

8:06
Joe: As writers, do you prefer this kind of matchup of big money teams with lots of stars, or is it better to have an underdog?

8:07
Dan Szymborski: Yah, boo.

8:07
DodgeGuys: I just wanted to say thank you for the wonderful work you all do. Looking forward to your coverage of the World Series! Hope it’s a good one!

8:07
Jeff Sullivan: It isn’t all wonderful

8:07
Carson Cistulli’s Moustaches: Would Yasiel Puig benefit spiritually from growing out a moustache in homage to that sported by Bill “The Butcher” Cutting from Gangs of New York?

8:08
Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I’m fine either way. The fun of it from this end, for me at least, is trying to figure out, “How does this team work? How can they win?” I thought, for example, that the NLCS between the Brewers and Dodgers, with the way Craig Counsell and Dave Roberts used their rosters, was fascinating, and it made it enjoyable to think along with them during the game and to write about afterwards.

8:08
Dan Szymborski: I just want stuff to happen. As long as we don’t get a bunch of 11-3 snoozers that are over in the 4th, I’m happy.

8:08
Dan Szymborski: And of course Puig would benefit.

8:09
Jeff Sullivan:

Who do you want to win this game?

Dodgers (59.3% | 79 votes)
 
Red Sox (40.6% | 54 votes)
 

Total Votes: 133
8:09
Jeff Sullivan:

Who do you *think* will win this game?

Dodgers (29.9% | 38 votes)
 
Red Sox (70.0% | 89 votes)
 

Total Votes: 127
8:10
Andy: Pat Venditte is with the Dodgers, isn’t he? I assume he didn’t make the PS roster, but wouldn’t it be fun to see him switching arms as he moved through the RS lineup (granted, RHB-heavy)? It would have been even more fun if Counsell had him available.

8:10
Jay Jaffe: I will always root for the success of Pat Venditte, but he’s demonstrated himself to be more or less the definition of replacement level thus far. If he’s on a postseason roster, something has gone terribly wrong.

8:10
Max Muncy: Why am I not starting?

8:10
Jay Jaffe: Because David Freese is there to mash lefties. Don’t worry, you’ll get your hacks at some point.

8:11
Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers pretty clearly have reason to believe Muncy isn’t quite as good against lefties as his numbers

8:11
Jeff Sullivan: Time to play the game where we track every Chris Sale fastball!

8:12
Dan Szymborski: It’s too easy to get caught up in one-year platoon split numbers, which really don’t mean much. Muncy had fairly typical L/R splits in the minors.

8:12
Jeff Sullivan: So far, 61% rooting for Dodgers, but 65% think Red Sox win tonight

8:13
Sad Baseball Fan: There are only 4-7 games left 🙁

8:13
Matt: Dan – I’d like to be an understudy. How do I apply for the job?

8:13
Jeff Sullivan: But they’ll last as long as 8-14 games

8:13
Matt: Oh, NICE! Joe Buck and John Smoltz! I’m super excited about this.

8:13
Jay Jaffe: Is there a space on the Fenway Park hand-operated scoreboard where I can put a “1” for “Broadcast team”?

8:13
Dan Szymborski: I get an understudy?

8:14
Jeff Sullivan: One batter, one strikeout, Sale up to 94.5mph

8:14
Muxosk: For two dominant LHPs who rely ona fastball/slider combo Sale and Kershaw have remarkably different stuff.

8:14
Jeff Sullivan: Sale has a changeup! Kershaw has never figured one out

8:14
Jeff Sullivan: Plus their arm slots almost couldn’t be more different

8:14
Jay Jaffe: But Kershaw does have Public Enemy Number One, the big curve

8:16
Sam: Can’t we just bet that all the teams will have fun?

8:16
Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Any rooting interests guys?

8:16
Dan Szymborski: Chaos.

8:16
Jeff Sullivan: Two batters, two strikeouts. Chris Sale is good

8:16
Jeff Sullivan: I root for writing material, mostly

8:17
Jeff Sullivan: Chance there for David Freese to fake a HBP. Didn’t seize it!

8:19
Tyler: Part of me wants to see one of the best pitchers duel of all time.  The Sox fan in me does not.

8:19
Jeff Sullivan: You have a whole life ahead of you that will be lived after this game is over

8:19
J: Do you think, given how good the Dodgers are against RHP the Red Sox start Pomeranz in G4 and use Porcello strictly as a fireman/set up guy?

8:19
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine they trust Pomeranz enough right now

8:20
5 Run Homer: Is Public Enemy Number One the best pitch nickname?

8:21
Jeff Sullivan: First inning, first out in play, first time being tricked by the camera into believing the ball was harder off the bat

8:21
Dan Szymborski: I really wanted Seunghwan Oh to name his pitches after actual final bosses.

8:21
Jay Jaffe: Re Pomeranz/Porcello, yeah, not happening. Cora’s not going to get that cute.

8:21
Dan Szymborski:

8:21
Guy Smiley: Steve Pearce called Manny Machado “the best person I know in the game” in an interview today.

8:21
Matt: It’s time to transfer ZiPS to a Python based system. Hit me up. Insta: Q-T-Py

8:21
Jeff Sullivan: Steve Pearce is famously reclusive

8:21
Dan Szymborski: It’s possibly even more of a mess than PECOTA was.

8:22
5 Run Homer: The booing of Machado is loud, folks

8:22
MCM: Is it me or is the camera angle bad to see the pitches from these lefties?

8:22
Jeff Sullivan: Also bad to see the pitches from any potential righties

8:23
Wes: Who pitches more out of the pen this series, Kershaw or Sale?

8:23
Dan Szymborski: kershaw I think

8:24
Jeff Sullivan: Badly want to see Kershaw bust out surprise curveballs when he’s behind in the count

8:24
Jay Jaffe: Sale averaged 94.2 mph on the fastball in that inning. That seems workable but it’s about 1.5 mph below his season average for the first inning according to Brooks Baseball

8:25
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of mud over there by the Pesky Pole. Gross

8:25
Dan Szymborski: Broadcasters going way too nuts about pitchers not having faced a hitter before always annoys me.

8:26
Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Don’t like this camera angle

8:26
AdamZ: The regular NESN broadcasts have a great dead center view, what is this nonsense from Fox?

8:26
Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: I will forever root against Boston due to Fever Pitch

8:27
Jay Jaffe: the number of times Hell would have to freeze over for me to watch that movie — i’ll get back to you after Szymborski’s ZIPS computer finishes calculating it

8:27
Dan Szymborski: I much prefer center-specific views.

8:27
Jeff Sullivan:

Fenway Park?

Good (74.0% | 97 votes)
 
Bad (25.9% | 34 votes)
 

Total Votes: 131
8:27
Joe: Fenway park is garbage. Fight me

8:27
Jeff Sullivan: That poll is for Joe

8:27
Matt: Dan, we’ll make a deal. I’ll keep my current job, and only give them 50% of my time. You give me 10% of your income. We’re going to automate ZiPS. It’ll be like when Eisenhower made the interstates.

8:28
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Separate poll for people who have actually had to endure games at Fenway, please. Tear it down.

8:28
Jeff Sullivan: Terrible play by Puig to try to throw home on the fly

8:28
Jeff Sullivan: That’s just a free base for Benintendi

8:28
Jeff Sullivan: So it’s 1-0!

8:28
Jay Jaffe: Puig’s defense in the postseason has been atrocious. I can’t think of a gamble he’s taken that’s paid off.

8:29
Dan Szymborski: Only thing I don’t like about Fenway is the seats have to be the narrowest in baseball.

8:29
Jeff Sullivan: Ah, the world’s favorite replay review

8:29
Dan Szymborski: And I’m a bit…uh…Rubenesque.

8:29
Anonymous: Super Benintendo Chalmers!

8:30
Jay Jaffe: My first MLB regular season game was at Fenway, in May of 1989. Ticket bought 3 weeks in advance and we got Roger Clemens vs. Nolan Ryan. Slugfest, Mike Greenwell hit two homers and Bob Stanley got the save. Couldn’t believe how small the seats were or that we had to pee in troughs.

8:30
Dan Szymborski: “You know, your sleeve is great for boogers.” “I know, I was trying it like you asked me? It’s great, I can get all up in Box Canyon!”

8:30
Dan Szymborski: I can totally read lips

8:32
Jeff Sullivan: Sounds like there’s an echoing Ker-shaw chant. One of my favorites!

8:32
Matt: Jay, re: Sale FB Velo: Have you isolated late-season FB velo? Not sure if it makes a difference, but have to feel that late-season baseline is different than, say, July.

8:32
Jay Jaffe: From August onward — the point when his attendance was erratic — his average first-inning velo was 94.3 mph http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&…

8:33
5 Run Homer: Did Joe Buck just call steal a base steal a taco a “rich tradition”?

8:33
Jay Jaffe: It made him richer.

8:33
Dan Szymborski: Steal a base, steal a taco seems to be the part of baseball that Buck is the most interested in and the part for which he can give the most detailed explanation.

8:34
Guest: It worries the hell out of me that the Kershaw “postseason failure” narrative hinges on the success of a sub-optimal Kershaw pitching.

8:34
Guy Smiley: Free tacos all around. Little reported but Sale’s trip to the hospital was from a bad Locos Taco.  Yes, he’s underpaid but way too frugal.

8:35
Matt: Jay – Re Puig’s defense: I don’t watch much, but feel like he’s got a phenomenal arm. Is his problem mostly mental? He’s physically, a good defender, right?

8:35
Jeff Sullivan: 2-0 Red Sox. Benintendi lost his helmet before he’d even taken a third step off second base

8:35
5 Run Homer: This isn’t going super great for the Dodgers, IMO

8:35
Tyler: JD almost killed Benny

8:36
Jay Jaffe: powerful arm but not as accurate as it once was. Good speed, plays the foul wall pretty well but isn’t great at leaping for balls and does some dumb air-mail throws every time, it seems

8:36
Raymond: Mookie should’ve fouled out, then maybe should”ve gotten caught stealing, and then benny gets a free second base on puigs throw. Sloppy from the dodgers in the first

8:36
Jeff Sullivan: Straight to Kershaw’s playoff ERA!

8:36
Dan Szymborski: “He almost clipped…uh…his…teammate coming off second!”

8:37
Cam: Puig has a great arm. Puig also knows he has a great arm, which makes him throw the ball to stupid places, thinking he will do better.

8:38
Jeff Sullivan: Just a magnificent pickoff from Kershaw. You could see that one coming

8:38
Jeff Sullivan: Except that I guess Martinez couldn’t

8:38
Guy Smiley: Whatever the outcome, these are two of the best uniforms in all of sports.

8:38
Matt: Expanding on my Puig question – I feel I might overrate “arm” as a defensive tool in the OF. Without getting too crazy about details, if the major categories are “arm”, “jump”, “path” and “decision” – which of those four categories would be most over indexed?

8:40
Ohtani Kitean: Balk!!!!!!!!!!!!

8:40
Dan Szymborski: I hate balks. I’m 40 and been watching baseball nonstop for 35 years and I still can’t remember all the things that are balks.

8:40
Mister Puppy : I can see Cardinal fans on Twitter gleaming in delight at Kershaw’s struggles

8:40
Jay Jaffe: when you’re facing your third straight playoff-free October and cannibalism is the alternative, i guess that’s what you tell yourself?

8:41
Guest: Hope Martinez yelled LEEEEEROOOOOOY JEEEEENKIIIIIINS there.

8:41
Dystopian Future: Look, Kershaw’s “awful in the playoffs” narrative is a joke. But it’s still important to note that all 3 of those hits were over 100MPH. It’s not like he’s ridiculously unlucky, he IS getting hit hard.

8:42
Jeff Sullivan: The bad luck was mostly just Freese overrunning Betts’ foul pop

8:43
Guy Smiley: Quick sidebar:  What are the odds, with the loaded free agent class coming, that we see another freeze out like last winter?

8:43
Dan Szymborski: I have heard some concern, though nobody who would go on the record.

8:43
Dan Szymborski: The top of the market won’t help the ordinary guys.

8:43
Jeff Sullivan: The mid-market players will have the same experience. The actual great players will not

8:44
Jeff Sullivan: The middle market will have to adjust because teams will never offer those contracts anymore

8:44
Dan Szymborski: See Eduardo Escobar in Arizona.

8:45
Cam: Does there come a point where we start to consider the possibility, that Kershaw does actually suck in the playoffs? We’ll see how today shakes out, but it becomes more and more difficult to fight the narrative each time.

8:46
Jay Jaffe: No. He’s had more good starts than bad – including two very good ones out of three this October. See

The current Clayton Kershaw #Dodgers playoff starts chart, heading into the #WorldSeries

• Green (11) = great,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

23 Oct 2018
8:46
Jay Jaffe: Has he pitched to his regular season level in the postseason consistenty? No. But compare his postseason numbers and start-by-start log to David Price, for example, and get back to me.

8:46
Jeff Sullivan: Regular season Kershaw: 21% K-BB
Playoff Kershaw: 20% K-BB

8:47
Jeff Sullivan: (Against superior hitters, on average)

8:47
Jay Jaffe: AHA! Slacking in October.

8:47
Jeff Sullivan: The nerve!

8:47
Sadman: “My crew is all about the AL”. What sort of weird family roots for entire league

8:48
Jeff Sullivan: Matt Kemp! First half Dodgers MVP!

8:48
Jay Jaffe: If you had Matt Kemp hitting the first home run of the 2018 World Series, come claim your prize

8:48
Jeff Sullivan: Leon wanted a fastball inside. Sale threw a fastball…over the outer third. That’s a big narp

8:48
Dystopian Future: I think there’s a high probability we see another freeze-out. It was never the Machados/Harpers of the world that were getting frozen out, it was the midlevel 30somethings. And there’s the possibility that with a higher supply at the top, the midlevel guys will have it worse.

8:48
AdamZ: Joe Buck: something something launch angle. John Smoltz: has aneurysm.

8:49
Matt: I forgot sneaks on my work trip. My options are: Gym shorts, white tee and dress shoes, or put all my clothes back on. I need more wine. What’s the call here?

8:49
Dan Szymborski: The first. You wanna work out, but you also want to be a littel fancy.

8:50
Jeff Sullivan: Of minor note: Leon is giving Sale the regular, basic pitch signs. Not the complicated, paranoid pitch signs

8:50
Hyperbolisyllabicsesquidalimysti: Am I overly concerned by the fact that Sale is already at 35 pitches?

8:50
Jart: Matt Kump!

8:50
MCM: Matt, own the shorts and dress shoes look. All about confidence

8:50
Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I’d be surprised if the plan has Sale going much more than 5 innings anyway. Cora has a full bullpen including Porcello and Eovaldi

8:51
ryan: what is my prize?

8:51
Jay Jaffe: Free admission to a FanGraphs chat of your choice

8:51
Stephen: To fix the freeze out of the mid level guys, will the Players Association basically need to force a strike as to get more of the young guys paid earlier so it doesn’t seem like an overpay after a rookie contract is up at age “30”?

8:52
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the MLBPA has the unity to strike on the issue.

8:52
Jeff Sullivan: They negotiated for all the wrong things last time around

8:52
Jeff Sullivan: Terrible priorities!

8:52
Jeff Sullivan: The free-agent market is never again going to be what it was

8:52
Dan Szymborski: The majority of players weren’t even alive when Miller left the director position.

8:54
Stringer Bell: I feel like people are overreacting to last year’s free agency

8:54
Dan Szymborski: The thing is, it’s not like breaking two glasses in the kitchen. A mindset isn’t a random fluke.

8:54
B. Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: I just gotta say that “Matt Kemp, World Series MVP” would be the most baseball headline of all baseball history

8:54
Dred Scott: should Kershaw have even started this game? Threw 15 pitches on Saturday.

8:55
Jeff Sullivan: Last year it came as a surprise, but it’s going to stay like that. Teams just aren’t going to throw money away anymore

8:55
Jay Jaffe: 15 pitches — relatively efficient ones — 3 days ago? It was his throw day. There’s no way the Dodgers would have done that if they had concerns about his availability or preparation for Game 1. Atributing his first-inning struggles to that when his defense let him down (at least in part – yes, those 3 100+ mph scorchers happened) is a reach

8:55
Facu: I live in Panama so I didn’t understand why you all hate Smoltz. Now I’m at a hotel watching the US transmission and I get it.

8:55
Dan Szymborski: The people that laughed about the Dodgers giving five years to Juan Pierre are buy and large the type of people who are making front office decisions now.

8:57
Dan Szymborski: Guy in commercial was HIRED not FIRED!!!111 WHATATWIST

8:57
Ian Desmond: Dan, I demand that you tell me that I am a good base

8:57
Dan Szymborski: You might make a good base.

8:58
Mike: Sale at 50 pitches in 2 innings

8:58
Jeff Sullivan: 51 pitches, but at least he’s got seven whiffs

8:58
Sad Mariners Fan: How will using starters out of the bullpen affect their availability?

8:58
Jay Jaffe: If it’s done right, it shouldn’t. The idea is that you get them to throw an inning on their throw day and they’ll have recovered in time for their start. So far we’ve seen it work pretty well this fall. Eovaldi, Porcello, Sale… I guess somebody is going to attribute Kershaw’s problems here to that, but as I said, I think that’s a reach.

8:58
Jeremy: What is something reasonable the players union could “give up” in exchange for, say, granting guaranteed free agency at age 27?

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: Barnes really trying to frame the snot out of those fastballs down

8:59
Dan Szymborski: “MLBPA gets major concession from owners and are now allowed unlimited hot sauce in the dugout. MLBPA gives owners extra year until free agency.”

9:02
J: At least the MLBPA recently hired a lawyer. Progress!

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if Ian Kinsler even knows he’s in the playoffs

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Has he done a single thing?

9:03
Hank: Is throwing an inning in a game really the same as a throw day?   Factoring in longer warm-ups for starters to get ready for game action and most not generally throwing 100% in a side session.

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody go rewatch that 0-and-1 curveball to Leon

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: That is as beautiful as a curveball gets

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: And then that half-swing nonsense happens

9:03
Jay Jaffe: not directly the same — of course it’s higher adrenaline and stress, but the idea is that you don’t overextend a guy past the point where he can recover for his turn.

9:04
ryan: Kershaw throws the most beautiful curveball in the world, and then Sandy freakin’ Leon gets a hit

9:04
Jay Jaffe: that’s some baseball for you

9:04
Guy Smiley: Lou Merloni on the Red Sox radio feed just called Leon’s swing “an Underwater Johnson.”

9:05
Hold me close, ohtani dancer: Has Kimbrel been tipping pitches all season? Or is he actually in decline?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s just wild

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: The pitch-tipping argument is unconvincing to me

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Inning-ending double play. You could tell the fans responded before they realized teams shift now

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: (I also responded like that)

9:06
Guy Smiley: Eric Gagne (yes, that one) claims to have caught Kimbrel’s pitch tipping and tipped off former Dodger teammate Alex Cora to it.

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: I read the article, but it didn’t persuade me

9:07
Ray: It will take my heart about 25 years to get used to a defender often being up the middle

9:07
Anonymous: I thought we, as a civilization, agreed to never mention Eric Gagne again?

9:07
Jay Jaffe: the Bradley GIDP is the 4th ball the Red Sox have hit with an exit velo of at least 100 MPH, but none of them has been elevated (max launch angle 9 degrees, on the Martinez hit), which has helped Kershaw limit the damage somewhat.

9:07
Jay Jaffe: Still, not a great trend

9:09
Guest: All season? Decline? Maybe I missed something about kimbrel’s season

9:09
Jay Jaffe: Kimbrel had several rough patches and finished with his worst FIP and HR/9, and second-worst ERA. Wrote about him (and Jansen) today https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/world-series-offers-rare-meeting-of-po…

9:09
Guest: What will be the dumbest controversy during the series? My vote goes for a questionable infield fly rule call.

9:10
Jay Jaffe: Something something Machado something

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: A bit of good opposite-field hitting so far today

9:11
Dan Szymborski: Wow, teams win more in games in which they hit a HR. SABERMATRIX!

9:11
Matt: Jeff – What is your evidence on your FA market theory? I feel like the anecdotal evidence of context-of-market is pretty strong. But I also don’t have any numerical data to refute it. I mean this as a sincere challenge to your positions is that – it just doesn’t seem backed up.

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Basically, talking to people who make these decisions

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: There’s so much value in productive arb and pre-arb players. There’s reduced value in a 2-win 32-year-old

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Those mid-market players will still get jobs, but not with long guarantees

9:12
Chris: Am I wrong to think Kershaw’s getting squeezed? Really looked like Timmons wanted to call that curve on the corner a ball

9:13
Jay Jaffe: Yes, it looks like Kershaw’s been squeezed on a few pitches. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?&game=gid_2018_10_23…

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Low curveballs are really hard on umpires

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Benintendi didn’t feel like diving for that one!

9:14
Arthur: Perfect set up for Machado to batflip a go ahead hit and have people hate him even more

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Distance of the Bregman fly out: 255 ft
Distance of the Freese single: 251 ft

9:14
Uncle Spike: Why did it take so long forvthe market to figure out 2 win 32 year olds aren’t that valuable?

9:14
Dan Szymborski: Inertia

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Here we are, 2-2 in the top of the third, of one of the greatest pitching matchups in World Series history

9:15
Jay Jaffe: RBI single for Machado, the 3rd straight single. Tie ballgame

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: These singles: 94, 90, and 88 miles per hour off the bat

9:16
Jay Jaffe: Chris Sale can’t pitch in the World Series, i guess

9:16
Matt: To continue my FA Question – That’s kinda my point thought. That’s a – theoretical – correction on market prices against the inflated prices previously. Many would argue that the context of last season’s market (major players being without need, major FA’s not being in abundance, etc) was what adjusted the prices away from what we usually see. So, if context was the issue (and not environment), there’s not real reason to believe that it will continue (or that it won’t…)

9:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe the context was the issue. It didn’t *help* especially a few players.

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t prove it yet. It’s just an informed forecast

9:17
Dan Szymborski: But it doens’t take Rosenthal to talk to people in front offices and realize that teams are evaluating players very differently than 15-20 years ago even.

9:17
Guest: Do you guys casually drink during these chats? If so what’s your choice tonight?

9:17
Dan Szymborski: I usually do, but I’m just drinking Coke because i have a headcache

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Nope

9:17
Anonymous: The Ghost of Eno Sarris just rattled its chains

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Sale’s 69th pitch wasn’t nice

9:18
Jay Jaffe: Not these days, no. I need a beer or two afterwards thoguh

9:18
Buffalo Springfield: Just wanted to say I’m happy we’ve gotten some great new writers at Fangraphs. You’re killing it, Jay.

9:18
Chris: With so many teams adopting advanced statistical analysis, would it be possible/prudent for the MLBPA to create salary controls for players like 2 win 32 year olds? Like you roll back the value of a win a bit to like 6.5 or 5/win, but then everyone works? Can’t imagine the union is super in on the game being dominated by team controlled players

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: But Jay, afterwards is like 1 in the morning?

9:18
Jay Jaffe: Aw shucks, thank you for the kind words. I’m just trying to uphold the high standards of the folks who build this place into such a powerhouse, some of whom have gone and some of whom still remain.

9:18
Jay Jaffe: Yes, Jeff. to quote Waylon Jennings, ain’t living long like this.

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: I want to sleep at 8:30!

9:19
Jay Jaffe: I also have a 2 year old to tend to in the mornings, and a wife who’s up every bit as late editing the likes of Stark and Rosenthal for The Athletic. October is hell.

9:19
Dan Szymborski: All the salary controls would do is that the star players would come cheaply and owners would keep more money; it wouldn’t create any more interesting in middling veterans.

9:20
kevinthecomic: Dan, what do les chats do during the World Series?

9:20
Dan Szymborski: I’m going Game 2 fully, I’m mostly here for the early part (so the first 3 hours or so out of 6)

9:20
Sad Mariners Fan: Who hurt their earning power more, Grandal or Machado

9:20
Jay Jaffe: Grandal, easily

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: No question

9:20
Dan Szymborski: Machado hasn’t hurt his earning power at all

9:21
Nitro Nic: Are umpires zones or pitchers “stuff” game to game a bigger variable?

9:21
Jay Jaffe: Machado has maybe cost himself some PR points. some team making a show of not pursuiing him. Grandal’s actively turning off suitors

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Umpire zones. Pitcher stuff doesn’t fluctuate much

9:21
ryan: Smoltz complains all game about launch angle and strikeouts,  and then applauds Turner, a poster child of the launch angle revolution” for having “one of the best approaches” on the team…

9:21
kevinthecomic: Ummm, sorry, les chats is French for the cats

9:21
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I thought it was a typo

9:21
Dan Szymborski: Cats don’t care about baseball.

9:21
Jay Jaffe: expecting intellectual consistency from a broadast booth is a hell of a thing

9:22
Cam: Starter inefficiency, like Sale’s tonight, less of a worry in the postseason because of bullpen-reliance?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Bingo

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, they’d prefer Sale look awesome and 100%, but they’re prepared to fill in all the extra innings they need to

9:23
Hyperbolisyllabicsesquidalimysti: Has Sale not been squeezed too?

9:23
Dan Szymborski: “Hey, for our commercial talking about launch angle, make sure Skip Schumaker is the first player we show in the video package for some reason.”

9:23
Jay Jaffe: as of now, Hyper, it looks about even in terms of number of pitches inside the zone that were called balls

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Boy that is a perfect full-count slider to Betts

9:24
Arthur: Why can’t we just make a bunch of clones of Mike Petriello and Jason Benetti to call every game

9:24
Guy Smiley: Neither starter is at their career best.

9:25
Mike: I came to make a snarky skip schumaker comment, got beat by Dan

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: That was an extremely deceptive fly ball off the bat

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Always makes me laugh when hitters don’t know where they hit the ball

9:26
Dan Szymborski:

I once saw a scouting report for Skip Schumaker. His weakness at the plate is pitches.
2 Sep 2015

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9:26
Dan Szymborski: I think that was my meanest Schumaker comment.

9:27
Dan Szymborski: This was the most esoteric

9:27
Jay Jaffe: For sale: one very adorable 2-year-old girl who is nursing a cold and possessed by Satan. Needs to be re-tucked in every 10 minutes during postseason games. Inquire within.

9:27
Dan Szymborski:

Skip Schumaker is less successful against lefties than the White Russians.
29 Oct 2011

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9:27
nickg: “You cannot simulate baseball when you’re resting.”

9:28
jonnyzuck: My dad, a fan of an AL team in his 60s always roots for the AL to win the WS regardless of who the teams are. I am in my 20s and I give no consideration to the league when I decide who I root for in the WS and I haven’t heard anyone my age that always roots for the team in their league. Is that something that is relatively unique to my dad or is it because he grew up in an era where the AL and NL were operated more like 2 different leagues as opposed to acting like conferences as they do today? And if it’s the second one, what is the approximate age cutoff for that type of thinking?

9:28
Dan Szymborski: I acutally would have put the cutoff as older than 60s.

9:28
Jay Jaffe: good lord that Machado play.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Visually that was an extremely weird double play

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Freese is the only first baseman I’ve ever seen to pick a ball without doing that vertical glove swipe

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Also Pearce was safe at first

9:29
Matt: I feel like the next great insight in RE-type things ia going to be sequencing related and involving Markov Chains. Dan – 7%. And the tacos are still in play. This is my final offer.

9:29
Dan Szymborski: The problem about moving to Python is I’ll still have to learn Python because I always have yearly changes and versions that are a few years from primetime.

9:30
Joe: Safe and interference! This will only take 57 minutes to resolve.

9:30
PitchClocksPlease: Jay…Pro tip – Bee pollen (I take 3 pills) about 1 hour before you want to snooze. Deep slumber, no grogginess when you have to get up.

9:30
Jay Jaffe: PEDs!

9:30
Dystopian Future: The broadcast booths are politics just like everything else. If you stuck two statheads in there the viewing audience would likely be a lot smaller, and die-hards like the people here will watch the game regardless, so they don’t care.

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: You’re not wrong

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: “Come on, Timmy, let’s go!” Dave Roberts, to umpire Tim Timmons after a squeeze

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: And then Kershaw promptly earns the benefit of the doubt on an edge fastball!

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Work! The! Refs!

9:31
Python?: I assumed that ZIPS was coded in Python. What is it coded in, then?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: J.D. Martinez is such an extraordinary hitter. 3-2 Red Sox

9:32
Dan Szymborski: I got it all out of Statistica some years ago, so it’s a spider’s web of Excel and some add-ons.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Just stayed on that low slider and drove it like 415 feet?

9:32
B. Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: WTF? No Python for ZiPS? Get with the times!

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: oh god didn’t need to see that replay of Martinez’s ankle

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: That was aesthetically upsetting

9:33
Dan Szymborski: The other analysts make fun of me for not being an R guy.

9:33
JY: 409 foot, 109 mph double

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how Martinez is walking right now

9:34
Arthur: I’m glad that my main interests of economics and baseball are united by their arguments over statistical programming languages

9:34
Matt: What’s the Pirate’s FO’s favorite coding language?…….Rrrrrrrrrr

9:34
Dan Szymborski: The Mets code things in pig Latin.

9:34
Joe: Give me Stata or give me death

9:34
Dan Szymborski: Even with Stata, you’re still going to die someday

9:34
JD Martinez’s ankle: Ouch

9:34
Tyler: I can say from personal experience there is no need for the top of the base to be as smooth as it is

9:34
Guy Smiley: I think JDM’s shoe came off. I don’t think that was all his ankle turning.

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I sure hope so!

9:35
Joe: Check back on that ankle in about 45 minutes.

9:35
Joe: I’m an orioles fan. I’m already dead

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: But you have so much international money to spend!

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: On no one

9:35
CamdenWarehouse: Mets: you want to code? like Hammurabi?

9:36
Guy Smiley: Oh, they’re gonna rue that intentional walk…

9:36
just boof it : Soooo Manny Machado is good at shortstop, right?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Playable, for now. He’s probably somewhere around -5 to 0 runs

9:36
Jay Jaffe: didn’t like it but they got away with the IBB

9:37
Sadman: Wtf are these capital one cafès?

9:38
Dan Szymborski: “You know how nobody goes to the bank anymore? We wanted more of a hipster version of a place that nobody actually goes to.”

9:38
Didi: Sad after this commercial that Didi Gregorius needed tommy john :/

9:38
Matt: I have been invesitvatignn RE, and mostly got my numbers to match Tom Tango’s. I then split Regular Seaon and Post season. Without having gotten so far as to look into sample-size related noise, I’m seeing some interesting trend that early base-out (first, one out) has lower run expectancy, and late base-out has higher. This seems to speak to both better pitching and better offense. Any analysis done on the difference in RE between regular season and post season, and maybe some insight into different approaches in managing?

9:39
Dan Szymborski: Imagine, living in a world in which Bruce Springsteen is watching the same thing on a television as you are.

9:39
Dan Szymborski: Buck is easily amazed.

9:39
Jay Jaffe: half of the BBWAA has that fantasy.

9:40
scott: I don’t want to make you nervous, Dan, but Thom Yorke is reading this live chat right now

9:40
Hold me close, ohtani dancer: is a large part of “X can’t pitch in the playoffs” just that pitching in the playoffs is hard and especially so after a long season?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Well realistically Price has a huge gap between regular-season and playoff ERA, and Kershaw is up there too

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: But mostly it is bullshit

9:41
Dan Szymborski: DID YOU KNOW: Jon Bon Jovi’s lungs ALSO inhale oxygen which enters the bloodstream? We really are in the future now.

9:41
Chris: I wish Joe Buck was there to provide this star tracking service for all television shows. Would love to know that Ringo Starr is watching Riverdale with me right now

9:41
Ted in HR: Do you guys believe the Dodgers are complicit in the things the SI article suggests? If so, does it affect your enjoyment of them in the WS?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know all that much, but from what little I *do* know, I think the Dodgers will be in the clear since they fired all their criminals

9:43
Carson Cistulli: Hello, I am Carson Cistulli, Minister of Quality Control for FanGraphs dot com. I’m here to ensure the Fan Experience is as good as possible. I’d ask, if you have a moment, to complete a brief survey.

9:43
Carson Cistulli:

The FanGraphs authors in this chat…

… have conducted themselves admirably. (24.3% | 38 votes)
 
… have been fine, if not transcendent. (17.9% | 28 votes)
 
… ought to be ashamed of themselves. (6.4% | 10 votes)
 
Somehow all of the above. (51.2% | 80 votes)
 

Total Votes: 156
9:43
Jay Jaffe: wouldn’t surprise me if they lost some international money for a year or something. It’s not what you want to see from any team, but it’s a more abstract thing than trading for a Chapman or an Osuna when it comes to how I feel about a team I guess

9:43
Nacho: I just realized Carson is not a part of this chat. Can you forward my previous message to him?

9:44
Guy Smiley: Quick inning for Sale.  He needed that.

9:44
Jay Jaffe: first 1-2-3 for either pitcher, no?

9:44
Guy Smiley: Dan should always be ashamed of himself.

9:44
CamdenWarehouse: Carson, can you turn the emojis on for the WS chats please? Thank you!

9:45
Dan Szymborski: Bank of America may have Eric, but Capital One has Eno.

9:45
Carson Cistulli: I’m actually unable to turn on emojis, because this site is intended for people above 14 years old.

9:45
Dan Szymborski: Naturally, I turn mine on in my chats.

9:46
Guy Smiley: Eovaldi up already.

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: He probably takes a little longer than the average reliever, and Sale has to be close to an empty tank

9:46
Jay Jaffe: i am an old and so i have no idea what you’re talking about re: emojis

9:46
CamdenWarehouse: I mean they should be ashamed of themselves, but not because of this chat

9:46
Plouffe Bonser : Moderators/authors: are you able to change your screen name in these chats? In other words… could this literally all be Carson?

9:46
CamdenWarehouse: Just like MLB, ignoring the younger generation

9:46
Dan Szymborski: Everything’s all Carson.

9:46
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Carson, what’s your favorite brand of Absinthe?

9:47
Carson Cistulli: Coors. I drink only Coors-brand Absinthe.

9:47
Jay Jaffe: I hear Old Milwaukee makes the best Absinthe

9:47
Dan Szymborski: Natty Boh.

9:47
Carson Cistulli: Much better than New Milwaukee’s, surely.

9:48
Anonymous: People keep talking about this awesome Red Sox offense, then I see Ian Kinsler, Sandy Leon and Jackie Bradley Jr. due up.

9:48
Jay Jaffe: it’s a stars and scrubs offense, to be sure.

9:48
Dan Szymborski: Required.

9:48
Matt: Weird. Jack White is also a certified vampire.

9:48
Meg Rowley: Hi pals.

9:49
Dan Szymborski:

9:49
Carson Cistulli: Fortunately not a day game.

9:49
Dan Szymborski: Hey Me Growler!

9:49
Schmoo: Meg is free from the bar!

9:49
Jay Jaffe: hey Meg!

9:49
Meg Rowley: I was viewing a friend’s wedding dress. She picked well, if at an inconvenient time.

9:50
Re: Emojis: Jay, there was a great movie detailing Emojis starring Patrick Stewart recently. It was the creatively-named “Emoji Movie”.

9:50
Mister Puppy : Jeff, what is your secret to falling asleep in 30 seconds? I can’t even do that after a dangerously large dose of Benadryl

9:50
Jay Jaffe: Jesus, Felipe and Matty Alou, how much did they pay Patrick Stewart?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan:

9:50
Section329: Sheesh Meg- in a bar?

9:50
Byron Buxton : Hi Meg!

9:50
CamdenWarehouse: Meg!

9:51
Meg Rowley: No, but her appointment was at 6, so I stopped in at a bar to watch the first couple of innings.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: That was an extremely easy inning for both pitchers, highlighted by Jackie Bradley Jr. carrying his bat all the way to first base

9:52
Jay Jaffe: I don’t think either of these aces is gonna call this one a gem, but both have hung in there reasonably well despite some breaks going the other way.
Sale: 4 5 2 2 1 7
Kershaw 4 6 3 3 2 5

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: And against very good lineups!

9:53
Jay Jaffe: right

9:53
Jay Jaffe: and I don’t think either has more than an inning left

9:54
Lauro: Would you let Kershaw face Mookie agian?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Me neither. Kershaw is about to get to the danger zone of the lineup again

9:54
CamdenWarehouse: one very good lineup and one that cares about launch angle

9:54
Carson Cistulli: I probably wouldn’t.

9:54
Dan Szymborski: The problem with this commercial is that about already uses up my weekly supply of wanting-to-watch-Skip.

9:54
Jay Jaffe: My god, do you just repeat the phrase launch angle as a slur because John smoltz told you to?

9:55
Carson Cistulli: Sale’s third time through now.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Feel like Sale isn’t completing this inning

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Got badly squeezed on that 3-and-1 pitch

9:56
MCM: Here comes Cora…

9:56
Meg Rowley: Jeff, you smartie.

9:56
Jay Jaffe: Sale’s out

9:56
Jeff Sullivan:

9:56
Carson Cistulli: More umpire or more Leon, you think, Jeff?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: That one felt mostly like umpire. Tight edges today for both guys

9:57
Dan Szymborski: Time for Barnes!

9:57
Schmoo: That inside pitch on the righties has been a coin flip every time. No consistency.

9:57
Stuafoo: And here begins the start of the 5 hr game

9:57
Meg Rowley: I feel better about having plans now

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Will be interesting to see if the Red Sox go to the complicated pitch signs now that Sale is out. They did that before against the Astros

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: And by interesting I mean ehhh

9:58
Jay Jaffe: Looking at the Brooks Baseball map again, i think Sale has now surpassed Kershaw in terms of times squeezed. My quick count was about 8 potential strikes called balls for Boston, and 5 for LA.  http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?&game=gid_2018_10_23…

9:58
Carson Cistulli: Any guesses on Matt Barnes’ curve rate in this appearance?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: 60%!

9:59
Carson Cistulli: As Sullivan noted, he recently threw 14 of 15.

9:59
Carson Cistulli: He was about 40% on the season.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Always get a kick out of watching Turner’s back foot while he waits for a pitch

10:00
Carson Cistulli: I thought he was shaking it from the cold.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s a timeout called for no reason

10:00
Joe: No Muncy?

10:00
Blake the Rake: So why not Max?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Another timeout

10:01
Meg Rowley: When are we going to make people understand how much time hitters add?

10:01
phoenix2042: Kershaw himself threw about 60% breaking balls today

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: This feels like Dave Roberts is leaning on David Freese’s postseason history

10:01
Jay Jaffe: maybe because Freese has had better ABs than Max lately in general

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Hard to argue

10:02
Guy Smiley: I was 100% against the pitch clock (NO CLOCKS IN BASEBALL!!) until all this sign-changing nonsense.

10:02
Meg Rowley: You really don’t notice it as much as you think you will.

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Another timeout

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: That one on Barnes and Leon

10:03
Meg Rowley: How much time am I going to spend (er, waste) this offseason watching hitters to estimate the time they spend (er, waste) calling for time?

10:03
Jay Jaffe: 163 1/2 hours, Meg

10:03
Meg Rowley: I hate how close to accurate this likely is

10:03
5 Run Homer: Oh cool just showin ads mid-AB fun fun

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: You have to hand it to David Freese, he definitely did stand in there and allow that to happen

10:03
Meg Rowley: If it cut down on between inning add time I’d be ok with it.

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Manny Machado has such a pop-uppy swing

10:05
Carson Cistulli: I don’t think David Freese was put in a position to succeed.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Wild pitch! Drink

10:05
Meg Rowley: I have no drinks here.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Wild pitch! Chat

10:05
Meg Rowley: Oh hey, a chat.

10:05
Jay Jaffe: I am thinking about drinking, if that helps

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Max Muncy is standing on deck

10:05
Anonymous: Machado is a surname of Portuguese and Spanish origin meaning the word “axe” or “hatchet”.

10:06
Nick: That’s the 745th WP/PB this playoffs.

10:06
Stuafoo: Now for a tame pitch…

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: That was an extremely Charlie Brown batted ball

10:06
Carson Cistulli: Muncy sighting. Pinch-hitting for Taylor, looks like?

10:07
Jay Jaffe: “You gotta tie the game up before you go ahead” — please needlepoint this for me, somebody

10:08
5 Run Homer: Smoltz just called Barnes Hembree

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Several times

10:08
Jeff Sullivan:

10:08
Heath Hembree: Hi guys!

10:08
Meg Rowley: Did Bellinger find his NLCS MVP trophy?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Interesting that they swapped from Muncy to Bellinger here

10:09
MCM: Did he lose it, Meg?

10:09
Meg Rowley: Misplaced it apparently!

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: There’s one of those Cody Bellinger 450-foot fly balls that is actually a 300-foot fly ball

10:09
Jay Jaffe: Bellinger just got under that one.

10:09
Carson Cistulli: Bellinger makes a little more contact?

10:09
Joe: Every Bellinger swing looks like a 900 ft bomb

10:10
Pat: I swear every single flyout by Bellinger looks like it’s gonna be a homer

10:10
Meg Rowley: I can’t decide if this is a Bellinger thing, a Dodger Stadium/Fenway thing, or a postseason camera angle thing.

10:10
5 Run Homer: Oh hey I thought that went 700 feet, as is custom with Belli

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty convinced it’s a Bellinger swing thing

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: And that was only 86 off the bat!

10:11
Cam: Box scores identical, but this has the feel of the Dodgers playing catchup, yeah?

10:11
Meg Rowley: I mean, they have been for much of it

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Does feel like the Dodgers are still behind, even though that makes not a single lick of sense

10:12
Jay Jaffe: I like their bench and bullpen better from this point in the game on, not that that’s saying a whole lot

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I guess the Red Sox do currently have three extra outs to play with

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Hey remember when J.D. Martinez rolled the shit out of his ankle in this game?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: By the way, Hernandez now in LF, Bellinger now in CF

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Turner just made an outstanding play that didn’t count

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Wait that ball was fair?

10:15
Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Will we be doing chats for all 7 games? Feels like the FanGraphs staff would be tired after a few games considering how many of you are working tonight

10:16
Jay Jaffe: I doubt it. I’m chatting tonight because I don’t have time to write off this game in a timely fashion. Which I guess means it’s probably worth seeing what’s the fridge sooner or later….

10:16
Guy Smiley: Third time thru here for Kershaw

10:16
Jay Jaffe: Walking Betts to start it off… not great, Bob.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Up to Carson whether we chat for every game. I actually…don’t remember the precedent, at least with regard to the weekends

10:17
Carson Cistulli: I think no weekends.

10:17
Carson Cistulli: Unless it’s an elimination game, maybe?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Sounds about right!

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Chris Sale: removed after 12 outs
Clayton Kershaw: removed after 12 outs

10:18
Jay Jaffe: And that’s it for Kershaw.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Jack Morris recorded 12 outs in his sleep

10:19
Confused Baseball Fan: I was just wondering if you can challenge a foul ball call that should be a fair ball. Because I think that missed call Changes this inning/game

10:19
Chris: Why let Kershaw start the inning? Feels like a mistake

10:19
Jay Jaffe: Roberts has given his starters a longer leash this postseason in an attempt to lessen the load on the bullpen. it hasn’t always paid off, and it’s not going to here.

10:20
Meg Rowley: I think you can challenge fair/foul but only on balls in the outfield

10:20
Carson Cistulli: Hey, apropos of nothing, how heavy a jacket ought one to wear for a game like this? Like, if one were sitting in the stands, for example?

10:20
Meg Rowley: Medium heavy, and don’t forget a hat, gloves and wear socks

10:20
Meg Rowley: Those last three things make just as big a difference as anything.

10:20
Guest: Heavy parka

10:21
Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Re; Carson’s jackets: one that covers the epidermis adequately and traps heat

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Good thing about Fenway is that when you’re sitting there in the cold no inch of your body is ever more than two inches away from the next body

10:21
Rich Hill: growing up there all my life, i think youd be set with a hoodie, a reliable pair of pantaloons, and perhaps a hat

10:21
Guy Smiley: I think it’s whether the ball is in front or behind of the infield ump.  In front, not reviewable. Behind, yes.

10:21
Chris: I’m thinking light jacket and multiple layers, too bulky a jacket and you’re going to be uncomfortable sitting there

10:21
Meg Rowley: Yup.

10:21
Gordon Tremeschko : Tauntaun carcass

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: I’m such a big fan of the first-pitch wild pitch for a new reliever just into the game

10:22
Jay Jaffe: As a veteran of many cold October nights at Yankee Stadium i say dress like you’re heading for a night on the Matterhorn and be pleasantly surprised you can unzip your coat and take off your hat

10:22
Guest: In New England we don’t get uncomfortable because of heavy jackets

10:22
5 Run Homer: windbreaker over a hoodie. Always layer

10:23
Meg Rowley: Have witnessed people be uncomfortable on purpose to prove things, so…

10:23
Nick: The 5,473th WP/PB this playoffs!

10:23
stever20: yet another wild pitch…..  been a huge story this postseason….

10:23
Jay Jaffe: adjusted for the number of innings, I swear the Dodgers have about 17x more wild pitches/passed balls than any other postseason team

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: That was an unexpected three-pitch strikeout

10:25
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: As much as everyone shits on Florida, this is the time of year that makes it all worth it. Jackets? Pshshaw

10:25
Sadman: Damn

10:25
Jay Jaffe: October baseball in Florida? what is this, 2003?

10:25
5 Run Homer: That was a HUGE K

10:25
Carson Cistulli: That was two swinging strikes on fastballs from JDM.

10:26
kevinthecomic: walks the first batter on four pitches, strikes out the next batter on three pitches — what is this, little league?

10:26
Chris: Clearly Madson is just trying to juice his wpa

10:26
Anonymous: “They can’t guess your locations if you don’t know where it’s going.” – Ryan Madson, probably

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox get the lead back. Xander Bogaerts made the most of a bad situation

10:27
Carson Cistulli: Bogaerts also basically hugged the first-base ump.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Javier Baez is a trend-setter

10:27
Biz Marquis : #HugWatch

10:28
jason: we all need a hug once in a while

10:28
Nick Mar – Cake is Good: MORE HUGS

10:28
Hold me close, ohtani dancer: Martinez swings through 95 and 96 mph fastballs. Think his ankle is okay?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: I seriously don’t know how it would be

10:28
Owen: #hugwatch

10:28
Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Jay, its 2013

10:28
Sadman: Hugs are in this postseason

10:28
Jay Jaffe: meant outdoor. Nobody cares about the weather in a dome.

10:28
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Yes, because hurricanes are famously fantastic weather events.

10:29
Meg Rowley: Rafael Devers being 22 doesn’t make me feel badly about myself, but it also doesn’t make me feel good.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Devers is an old-bodied 22

10:29
Jay Jaffe: Madson has generally pitched pretty well in these spots in the postseason. Tonight? Nope, though again, that wild pitch didn’t help.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw/Sale combined, now: 8 innings, 8 runs

10:30
Jay Jaffe: Cooperstown is gonna want some memorabilia from both

10:31
Nick: YES I KNOW YOUTUBE TV EXISTS

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I actually didn’t so that was helpful

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Or, it would be, if I had interest in using the service

10:32
Jafo: Suppose I hit the mega millions tonight? What should I do with my 500 mil after taxes?

10:33
Meg Rowley: Help people, invest it, help people more. Buy a house, too, I guess.

10:33
Jay Jaffe: Sign Manny and Bryce

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Start a foundation and hire your family

10:33
Jay Jaffe: pay big bonuses to all FanGraphs writers, too.

10:33
Meg Rowley: That too. Gotta take care of your people, and it is nice to take care of other people at the same time.

10:34
Meg Rowley: My thing was about the foundation, but bonuses sure.

10:34
Dodgers fan: In an obviously biased way, i feel bad for Kershaw getting charged every postseason with relievers coming in and giving up runs with inherited base runners. (obviously this time its more on Kershaw but still)

10:34
Nick: Holy shit we’re at 3 hours 20 minutes through 5. @.@

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Now subtract an hour

10:34
Jay Jaffe: B-Ref has inherited runners/scored in their game logs but not bequeathed ones. I demand Sean Forman fix this so we can know how of then this has happened to Kershaw et al

10:35
Kike : I still do not believe that Joe Kelly is very good

10:35
Meg Rowley: But great stuff.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not!

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Joe Kelly is good like Jordan Hicks is good

10:36
AdamZ: Inherited runs should be a percentage. starter lets a baserunner on and the reliever allows him to score? Half a run  charged to each

10:37
Jay Jaffe: Baseball Prospectus used to have a Fair Run Average stat that was based on Run Expectancy for bequeathed/inherited, and did away with earned/unearned. I loved that. but it’s gone.

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: What baseball needs is more fractions

10:38
Jay Jaffe: John Smoltz hates math but loves fractions. Go figure.

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Joe Kelly’s pants are so tight I can see the outline of each of his leg hairs

10:39
Meg Rowley: Has that underwear look

10:39
The 6ix: I feel like Meg should be making that comment.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: I can see pants too

10:39
Meg Rowley: I mean, it isn’t just my thing. We all watch the same games.

10:39
Clive K.: I still haven’t forgiven Joe Kelly for taking Hanley out of the playoffs back in ’13

10:40
Clive K.: I’m holding a serious grudge

10:40
Jay Jaffe: i have to admit that ever since then, i’ve kind of enjoyed watching Joe Kelly fail to fulfill his potential despite great stuff. 7 seasons in the majors, one with 1.0 WAR or better.

10:40
Guy Smiley: When Joe Kelly is bad he’s really bad.  When he’s good…

10:41
Meg Rowley: You can see his undies.

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Interesting opposite-field chop swing there by Puig. Didn’t feel like he could get around on Kelly’s 100mph

10:41
Dystopian Future: I CAN’T GET OVER MATT KEMP’S EYES I LOVE THEM

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: One of the game’s more objectively handsome players

10:41
kevinthecomic: RE seems like the right way to apportion inherited/bequeathed runners, surprised the BP stat didn’t last

10:41
Jay Jaffe: regime change, mainly

10:42
Hyperbolisyllabicsesquidalimysti: Please tell me, Jay, that bequeathed is an official baseball term.

10:43
jonnyzuck: While not baseball related, it’s disheartening to see how many people trashed the decision by the Giants to go for 2 last night because of the “damn analytics” when in fact the calculation to show why it’s a good idea  is very simple and easy to see

10:43
Meg Rowley: Football has advanced stats, but it’s behind where baseball is.

10:44
Meg Rowley: We still have broadcasters who bemoan the disappearance of the sacrifice bunt. This stuff takes time.

10:44
brian ca$hman: how much do fangraphs writers make?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: More than we have any right to

10:44
baby face devers: how nervous should sox fans be if kimbrel is put in this game?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Not any more nervous than usual. He is very good

10:45
John: It seemed like Price was reference some sort of mechanics revelation after G5 of the ALCS. Has he figured something out that should give us some confidence for tomorrow? Or was he speaking generally..

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: I think he basically just tweaked his changeup grip and then he threw a zillion good changeups

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Something to keep an eye on but nothing jumped out from the data, other than the changeup frequency

10:46
John: 84% WE seems a little high..

10:46
Jay Jaffe: Agreed, No lead at Fenway is ever safe.

10:47
Guy Smiley: Good for you.  How much do 538 baseball writers make?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: 538

10:47
John: Would you make more working as an analyst for an mlb team?

10:47
Neil: What is the faint grey line above the green win probability graph?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the level of analyst

10:47
Meg Rowley: We’d work more anyway.

10:47
Jay Jaffe: “The green line is the live win probability based on two average teams, which the gray line is the same pattern adjusted for the pregame Game Odds. ” https://www.fangraphs.com/library/how-to-use-fangraphs-live-scoreboard…

10:48
Anonymous: isn’t framing supposed to be subtle? glove moving around like a vegas magician back there

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Urias all the way back from 3-and-0. I love those strikeouts

10:48
Meg Rowley: “Quieter” hands do tend to steal more strikes.

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Look at that 1-and-0 fastball frame-job

10:49
Meg Rowley: We should write an Ocean’s Eleven-type script about framing

10:49
Meg Rowley: (no)

10:49
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: If you drafted players from these teams, who would be pick 50?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Swihart or Moreland

10:50
Blake the Rake: Is there any chance Betts plays 2B in LA?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: We’ll see about Martinez’s ankle, I guess, but I think there’s a decent chance we see it for Game 3 and then they reevaluate

10:51
bob: jeff, how many weekends do you spend in the great outdoors? if you could, would you live the #vanlife?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Most weekends in the summer, some weekends in the spring/fall, few in the winter. I like showers too much to live in a van

10:52
Cam: As a big Kershaw fan, it’s depressing that he’s been the worst lefty the Dodgers have put on the mound tonight.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Only so far!

10:52
Rob Madfred: Is Urias going to stick in the pen next year?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’ll make a certain amount of spot starts. Can’t push him too hard after throwing basically zero innings

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Here is Ryan Brasier’s uniformed beard, on to pitch

10:53
phoenix2042: I am so thrilled that Urias made it back after that scary shoulder surgery. I hope he can get a starting spot next year and plenty of sweet sweet pick offs at first base.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Also rooting for Jimmy Nelson!

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Joc Pederson hitting for Barnes now, so Grandal is due in

10:53
Carson Cistulli: Hey. Bye, dummies. I will see everyone in the future.

10:54
Anonymous: Fake baseball player? What’s a ‘Ryan Brasier’ do?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Bye Carson! Have fun tomorrow and stay warm!

10:54
Meg Rowley: Threw literally 33.2 innings!

10:54
Jay Jaffe: See ya Carson! Stay warm

10:54
Meg Rowley: Hey Carson have fun, I’ll be looking for your mean mug on TV!

10:55
stever20: how real do you feel the Ryu struggles away from home are this year?  8.59 ERA in the LCS for him….  Have to say i was a bit surprised to see him getting the game 2/6 slots……

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Career wOBA allowed at home: .299
Career wOBA allowed on the road: .301

10:55
Hamburglar: is this really the best chat for the world series :/

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Probably it is not, no

10:56
Jay Jaffe: my metrics say it’s the 17th best

10:56
Jay Jaffe: wait, we’re up to 14th

10:56
Meg Rowley: Sorry for making it worse 🙁

10:56
Cam: This doesn’t fit the anti-narrative narrative, but…is it possible Kershaw really does suck under postseason pressure?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: It’s possible, sure, but you’ve got a hell of a lot of good starts to explain

10:56
Jay Jaffe: no, we were 27th before you showed up, Meg.

10:57
Matt STL: Remove the hindsight of what we now know happened … was it a strategic mistake to let Kershaw start the 5th, the batters facing a (tiring version of) him for a 3rd time in under 2 hours?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Kershaw was at like 69 pitches and the Dodgers didn’t have a great bullpen option to turn to. I think you could justify taking Kershaw out before the fifth but letting him pitch wasn’t egregious, to me

10:58
stever20: and  for Ryu- wOBA this year Home .229 Away .339    And that’s not including the postseason……

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t care about a partial-season home/road split

10:58
Jay Jaffe: 82.1 innings. a heavy reliever workoad. and we know single-season splits are set in stone for them

10:58
Jay Jaffe: /sarcasm font

10:58
Biz Marquis : Did Joe Buck just call Ken Rosenthal “honey”?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Max Muncy is such a 2004-era Red Sox kind of hitter

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: He’s also every Oakland Athletic from the turn of the millennium

10:59
Meg Rowley: Lot of folks tune in during the World Series who didn’t even in the most recent playoff rounds. No harm in getting people up to speed.

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Turner with one of those line drives straight at the camera

11:00
nickg: If you ask me, this game has now achieved Moderate Muncy.

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Eovaldi is up (again?) and now Grandal is at the plate, for Freese. So much is happening!

11:01
Jay Jaffe: Grandal will be charged with a passed ball during his own plate appearance, setting a World Series record of sorts

11:01
Dystopian Future: Coming up to the plate, Yasmani “GIDP” Grandal

11:01
Section329: Mr Pass Ball

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Grandal, career, playoffs: .100/.250/.200 (85 PA)

11:02
The 6ix: Brasier, it’s called a bread trimmer. Buy one.

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: I love this typo

11:02
Jay Jaffe: 7-for-70 with a 16% walk rate for Grandal. weird.

11:02
Meg Rowley: I get it, and analytics is about telling the truth, but man we are gnarly to these guys sometimes.

11:03
Dystopian Future: Narrative this, narrative that. Stop trying to fit everything into a narrative! Kershaw is a great pitcher. He had a stinker tonight. Hopefully he goes out there in a few days and makes a good start. Don’t think too much about it.

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Grandal raising that playoff OBP!

11:03
Jay Jaffe: 17.4% walk rate

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Jay is on top of it

11:04
Meg Rowley: OBP! OBP! OBP!

11:04
stever20: how crazy is it that LA has exactly 0 position players left right now(well they will when Grandal gets put in at catcher)…..  I think I like how Boston did more of the old school 14/11 formula…..

11:04
Jay Jaffe: my Yasmani Grandal Is the Catching Bargain of the Offseason piece remains unwritten

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: That’s one of the worse throws I’ve ever seen Bradley attempt

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: 5-4!

11:05
Tyler: JBJ usually makes that throw

11:05
5 Run Homer: Machado is getting some boring-ass RBI tonight

11:05
Meg Rowley: Better than a boring ass-RBI I suppose

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: JBJ should’ve had a better shot to get Muncy there. Just badly off-line

11:06
dead mccann walking: is it possible the ALCS & WS finally can dispel the myth that pitchers batting adds more strategy? pinch hitters every inning

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: What it really does is add more traps

11:07
Brian CashGod: what on earth is a boring ass-run-batted-in?

11:08
Meg Rowley: Unnecessary butt first slide somewhere while a runner scores duh

11:08
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What does Verlander do in bathrooms with fewer than two stalls?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Rodriguez vs. Bellinger now. Time for some high hard fastballs

11:08
Meg Rowley: Probably poops himself.

11:08
Meg Rowley: Well if anything illustrates Jeff and my’s relative value to the site…

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: “That’s where Bellinger can expose himself” — John Smoltz

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Bellinger 98 miles per hour off the bat! …and 53 degrees above the horizontal

11:10
Chris: Did the Sox fans get tired? They were super loud early and now there’s audible, positive Manny chants

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: It is cold and windy and after 11

11:10
Jay Jaffe: for those wondering what was in my fridge:

Citrus nose, grapefruit/orange rind/lemon zest, a bit bitter with the finish. Quite drinkable – Drinking a Tasty IP… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
24 Oct 2018
11:11
Rob Madfred: Is this game over before midnight EST?

11:11
Meg Rowley: Almost certainly not.

11:11
stever20: I can’t remember any game- let alone a DH game where a team has run it’s bench out in the 7th inning…..

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Pass!

11:11
Meg Rowley: Feels like a Jay question

11:11
Jay Jaffe: Roberts ran out pretty quickly in one of the NLCS games, but remembering which one is tough, as it is all a blur of double-switches.

11:12
phoenix2042: Boston’s win probably went UP after the sac fly. I guess the sac fly with the bases loaded and 1 out is actually a below average result?

11:12
Jay Jaffe: which question is mine, the over before midnight one?

11:13
Meg Rowley: The running out the bench question

11:13
another bad dynasty manager: Who has the better bullpen in your estimation as we head into the final innings?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: I like the Dodgers’ collection more. Bringing in Madson was a little bit puzzling

11:13
Jay Jaffe: ah, yes I was on that one.

11:13
Blake the Rake: So is Jansen the emergency catcher now?

11:14
Jay Jaffe: I think Muncy is

11:14
Meg Rowley: Yeah I was gonna say.

11:14
stever20: Next pitcher for Red Sox Kimbrel now right?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Not sure how comfortable they feel trying for six outs again, but I guess we’ll see if Rodriguez does more

11:14
Pat: That’s the first time I’ve ever seen you Jay and you have such a big mustache and now I don’t know what to do

11:15
Chris: Getting visions of the Dodgers little league subbing Kenley in to pitch from behind the plate and the game pausing for 10 minutes for him to take off the gear

11:15
Jay Jaffe: wait you can see into the chat? Oh, right, the Twitter av. Yes, I do have a mustache.

11:15
Meg Rowley: Kenley doing this is very much my sort of thing, but I doubt it.

11:15
Jay Jaffe: What’s the count on Dodgers defensive misplays? 5?

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: Andrew Benintendi is now 4-for-4 today against lefties, even if that one was a somewhat generous hit ruling

11:16
Meg Rowley: Báez in and the game def goes past midnight now

11:16
Dystopian Future: I mean it brings up the question of what are you saving those bench guys for? It’s not like the three ring circus shows up in the ninth inning and injures 4 of your players at random.

11:17
Jay Jaffe: not since Ringling Bros went out of business, at least.

11:17
Philley11: Jay, Tropical Hops Rising from Squatters. No need for a six pack, four will do

11:17
Jay Jaffe: Squatters? Are you in Salt Lake City?

11:17
Anonymous: Shift idea: Move the catcher behind the 2B until you get to 2 strikes if no one is on base.

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: I’m afraid there is actually a rule to prevent that very thing from happening

11:18
Adam: International feed showing the bat boy giving the outfielders a new defensive alignment card due to the new pitcher, pretty cool

11:18
Meg Rowley: screengrabs please!

11:18
John: Dodgers defense tonight has been disgusting to watch.

11:18
Jeff Sullivan: Underrated big difference between these two teams! The Dodgers are versatile but not actually that effective

11:19
Tyler: oh no, 2 minutes between pitches now

11:19
Santiago: Baez still takes forever to throw?

11:19
Jay Jaffe: on a positive note, the rest of your life will seem to last that much longer.

11:19
Meg Rowley: not literally forever, but figuratively forever

11:19
Mac: Does the catcher have to be directly behind the plate, or can he stand just to the foul side of 1st prior to a ball in play?

11:19
Jay Jaffe: time slows to the point that i can see infinity when he pitches. It’s magnificent

11:20
passive voice: what’s Benny’s expected hits prob tonight? He has four.

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: 2.03

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: @Mac — gotta be in the catcher’s box, I’m afraid

11:20
Meg Rowley: Pretty sure the rules specify where the catcher and pitcher have to be

11:20
Meg Rowley: yeah

11:20
Meg Rowley: that

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: (There is a catcher’s box)

11:21
Anonymous: A hitter calling time when facing Baez should be considered a warcrime

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: He deserved to strike out and look stupid like that

11:21
Meg Rowley: This is in the bylaws in The Hague

11:21
Joe: I’m a dodgers’ fan, man is this team not aesthetically pleasing to watch.

11:21
Jay Jaffe: as Warren Spahn said, “Hitting is timing, pitching is upsetting timing, but Pedro Baez, man.”

11:22
Neil: And no other player (besides the catcher) can be in foul territory, I believe

11:22
Meg Rowley: Yup, believe so.

11:22
nickg: Re: the question earlier about who would be the last pick in a draft of the two teams…
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25047665/mlb-ranking-all-50-players…

11:22
Birdlaw: Manfred has to be happy with Baez pitching in the postseason because it definitely makes other people want a pitch clock

11:22
Meg Rowley: You really don’t notice after an inning in the minors

11:23
Hank: Think how long this game would be if Baez had to throw 4 intentional balls to JDM.

11:23
carrotjuice: The new IBB rule is great. It would have taken Baez at least a minute to throw four intentional balls.

11:23
Hank Lloyd Wright: Just remember Mark Buehrle’s speed pitching fondly in between Baez pitches

11:23
Jeff Sullivan: Wade Miley the other day threw two pitches in like nine seconds! 🙁

11:23
Meg Rowley: Truly his best attribute as a pitcher.

11:24
Jay Jaffe: The Dodgers have won two pennants since my freshman year of college (’88). Being picky about aesthetics with that frequency makes one sound rather spoiled.

Good teams know how to win ugly, and for all of their mistakes tonight, it’s not out of the question the Dodgers can steal this one, if Baez gets out of this at least.

11:24
Hank: Grandad has always been bad defensively outside of framing,  is his struggle really that surprising?

11:24
Meg Rowley: Seems like a lot of good framing catchers struggle with blocking.

11:25
Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Who’s got tomorrow night’s chat? Just curious, I’ll be here either way

11:25
Jeff Sullivan: Dan and Craig are handling the lion’s share of it

11:25
Meg Rowley: Obviously he’s been not good in big spots this October, but generally the framing is way more important.

11:25
Mike: Numbers dont support Grandal being anything worse than average at blocking and throwing

11:26
Jeff Sullivan: The only thing slower than Pedro Baez is a pitching change to replace Pedro Baez

11:26
Jeff Sullivan: But those were two impressive high-fastball strikeouts!

11:26
Philley11: You know your Utah beers. Philley is just my favorite team

11:27
Rob Madfred: Can we add extra adds to Pedro Baez’s Fangraphs page so it takes longer to load?

11:27
Jay Jaffe: I grew up in SLC (1973-88) and my parents are still there. I wouldn’t move back home if you paid me but 1-2 visits a year is great, and watching a craft beer culture come to life there, amid the overarching conservative culture, has been gratifying.

11:28
Neil: Are we piling on with the Baez digs, or is there just so much more time to comment?

11:28
Jeff Sullivan: In Baez’s defense, he (1) is pretty good, and (2) isn’t the only slow worker in the majors

11:29
Super Benintendo : Uintas Hop Nosh was always a solid go-to if you lived near Utah.

11:29
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s Alex Wood, who’s like Chris Sale without any of the anything

11:29
Jay Jaffe: I get Hop Nosh here in NYC. it’s part of the rotation.

11:29
Jeff Sullivan: Ding dong!

11:29
Jay Jaffe: Alex Wood has been flat out dreadful out of the bullpen

11:29
Meg Rowley: Oh dear

11:30
Jeff Sullivan: That pitch was low and out of the zone. Delmon Young special

11:30
Grandawful: Alex Wood is bad

11:30
Tyler: Ding Dong

11:30
Anonymous: BASEBALL RUN AWAY

11:30
Chris: Seems like game

11:30
Meg Rowley: Very pleased Nunez didn’t hurt his (vague lower body something) while running the bases.

11:31
Jay Jaffe: that’s wood’s 3rd HR allowed in 4.1 IP this fall. He’s got the hat trick, one allowed in each round, so there’s that.

11:31
Jay Jaffe: Baseball Run Away

11:31
Jay Jaffe: (that’s what my daughter calls a home run)

11:31
Adam: Sorry it took so long, here is the bat boy giving the card to Pederson

11:31
Meg Rowley: Thank you!

11:32
Guy Smiley: As much as we’d all like the Dodgers to steal this one, Jay, it doesn’t look as likely now.  Oh btw, Jankees lose.

11:32
Jay Jaffe: “if Baez gets out of this at least.” – important caveat.

11:33
Grandawful: Alex Wood is making a good case to be a starter next year by being bad out of the bullpen

11:34
Hank: Baez vs Devers or Wood vs Nunez seems like an easy call.   Roberts hasn’t been great tonight.

11:34
Mike: There’s an argument that Wood  not Ferguson should have been left off.   I wish I had made it. Hes been putrid since August

11:34
Matt: I have to say … MLB is attempting to sell their game on a national stage … and as much as I liked him as a player, John Smoltz is a terrible, brutal, awful color commentator

11:34
Jeff Sullivan: Four-hour games also do them no good in that regard

11:34
Jay Jaffe: Yeah i raised my eyebrows at swapping Alexander in for Ferguson, who has pitched well in his spots.

11:35
Jeff Sullivan: Wonder how Brian Cashman feels when he sees Dave Dombrowski’s hair

11:35
Jay Jaffe: as I noted in my Jansen/Kimbrel piece today, the move of the surplus starters to the bullpen  — Maeda, Wood and Stripling — really hasn’t paid off for the Dodgers. Their bullpen was solid down the stretch and in the first 2 rounds in spite of that, not because of it.

11:36
Meg Rowley: I am jealous of Dombrowski’s hair, and my hair is pretty good.

11:36
Scuffy Mcgee: Wood going to be “injured” after this game and caleb Ferguson added?

11:36
Jeff Sullivan: I would definitely not put that past them! No one manipulates the injury rules like the Dodgers

11:37
Jay Jaffe: It only matters for Cashman because his many world series rings scratch his scalp when he runs his fingers over it.

11:37
Tyler: I does not help that kids on the east coast can not watch the end of these games, hell they can not even watch the middle.

11:37
Meg Rowley: Four time zones makes things tricky.

11:37
Jay Jaffe: would you let your children watch this mess? Shame on you

11:37
Hal: I know “process over results” and all but relievers giving up homers after a mid-inning pitching change is always so funny to me

11:38
Grandawful: Baez is charged an earned run for an IBB where he didn’t throw any pitches and another pitcher giving up a homerun

11:38
Jay Jaffe: @hal: nothing makes a manager look worse than that.

11:38
Japes: Is Eovaldi good?

11:38
Jeff Sullivan: Definitely, for however long he’s healthy

11:38
Philley11: Is there any way to prevent that kind of injured player manipulation?

11:38
Guy Smiley: Was Eovaldi the best trade deadline trade?  Neck and neck with Machado?

11:39
Meg Rowley: They can’t come back, right? (right?) Unlike with bereavement or paternity leave? That’s supposed to provide a disincentive.

11:39
Jay Jaffe: Eovaldi was certainly up there on the pitching side. Luke Voit has to be in the discussion on the position player side.

11:39
Jay Jaffe: an injured player who is replaced on the roster is out for that round and the next, which is a moot point in the World Series but prevents tomfoolery in the earlier rounds

11:40
Hal: I think there’s a pretty good numbers-only argument that you’d rather have Baez/Devers than Wood/Nunez there, right?

11:40
Jeff Sullivan: I think there is!

11:40
Jeff Sullivan: The Sale trade is looking pretty special

11:40
jellybelly: does dave dombrowski really deserve a lot of credit for inheriting an insane amount of homegrown talent and then trading everyone else for superstars

11:41
Jeff Sullivan: That was a fast inning. Still 8-4 and the Dodgers have but three remaining outs

11:41
Meg Rowley: I am dog sitting for my moms and their dog is barking at every commercial with an animal in it, so this game could end soon.

11:42
Dystopian Future: Best deadline acquisition was definitely Luke Voit, for what the teams involved gave up.

11:42
Chuck H: At least he’s not barking at the MasterCard baby commercial.

11:42
Meg Rowley: Barked at that too!

11:42
Jay Jaffe: Voit’s the one with the club control remaining. We’ll see if he’s a legit 1st division 1B

11:44
Blake the Rake: Blindly looking at the projections, Wood is slightly better than Baez and Devers is much better than Nunez. Why was that stupid?

11:44
Jeff Sullivan: As I look at things, it does appear that you’d rather have Wood vs. a righty than Baez vs. a lefty. What you make of their more recent appearances, well, that’s up to you. Or Dave Roberts

11:44
Meg Rowley: It looks cold in Boston.

11:44
Jeff Sullivan: Is that a Yankees Suck chant? I can’t tell

11:45
Meg Rowley: Regional rivalries are amazing

11:45
Meg Rowley: A little dumb, but amazing

11:45
Guy Smiley: Yes.  Yes it is.

11:45
Mike: That’s a Manny sucks chant

11:45
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know who to believe

11:45
Meg Rowley: Sounded like Yankees to me

11:46
EmeraldOne: Manny sucks would make more sense, but hey.

11:46
Meg Rowley: Fandom being so logical.

11:46
Meg Rowley: Sandy Leon!

11:46
Jeff Sullivan: Sandy Leon with the second hit of his game and career

11:46
Meg Rowley: I’m so happy for him.

11:46
Jay Jaffe: I guess the thing about Wood/Baez — and I’ll allow that right now it’s tough not to se this though the filter of what’s just transpired — is that if you’ve been watching the last 2 rounds, it’s certainly seemed as though Wood has been too predictable with his pitches and/or uncomfortable in the role

11:47
Anonymous: is this gun hot or does Nate have 101 in him?

11:47
Jeff Sullivan: He does do that. He’s absurd

11:47
Hal: I know it’s not at all a fair comparison but I watched a full NBA game (Nuggets-Kings) in between innings 2-7 of this game

11:48
J: If you’re Eovaldi’s reps, given his history, do you seek 4-5 years at a slightly lower AAV or 2-3 years at a higher AAV?

11:48
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s looking at a more expensive version of the Chatwood, maybe with a fourth-year vesting option based on innings or not finishing 2021 on the DL with an elbow injury

11:49
Nate: What response do you give to people who think it’s easy to bunt against the shift?

11:49
Meg Rowley: I invite them to consider the ways in which they are incorrect.

11:49
Meg Rowley: So much of baseball is hard. Baseball is so hard. The things you practice less are even harder.

11:50
Jeff Sullivan: I think bunting decently is harder than fans believe, but I also think bunting decently is easier than left-handed hitters tell the press

11:50
Cam: To me, Wood seems fairly simple to figure out. When he’s throwing 92-94, he’s good. When he’s throwing 89-91, he’s bad. And he’s been throwing the latter for the majority.

11:51
Dodger Fan: There is nothing more 2018 Dodgers than somehow sneaking into the World Series and then getting swept

11:51
Jay Jaffe: first time I’ve seen a four-game sweep in Game 1 and that’s going back the past 41 World Series

11:52
Jeff Sullivan: I think 2007 was a Game 1 sweep

11:53
Jeff Sullivan: Ninth inning time. I cannot promise this will be interesting, but it will be conclusive

11:54
JBJ: Do I get traded this offseason

11:54
Jeff Sullivan: You do not

11:54
Monsignor Martinez: The Red Sox won 108 games with a catching platoon that totaled -1.7 WAR

11:55
Jay Jaffe: second base and third base weren’t so hot, either.

11:55
Matt: Wood / Baez is not the correct discussion.  The correct discussion is Wood / Jansen.  Jansen should have been up and hot.  Wood flips Devers for Nunez, and then Jansen faces Nunez.

11:55
Jeff Sullivan: If Wood is announced, then he has to face at least one batter

11:56
Super Benintendo : Story potential on weakest infield for a WS team?

11:56
Jeff Sullivan: Good lord

11:56
Guy Smiley: Is the Chatwood deal really a comp?  What an outlier and boondoggle!

11:57
Jeff Sullivan: The double TJ thing is going to be a major variable, no matter what Olney writes

11:57
Jay Jaffe: 3.0 bWAR in that 1988 Dodger infield, 2.1 of it from Sax

11:57
Nate: It’s easy to win 108 when you play Baltimore 19 times.

11:57
Meg Rowley: Helps, but even by BaseRuns they were a 99 win team.

11:58
Jeff Sullivan: There’s the Beat LA chant. Yankees are excluded!

11:58
Meg Rowley: Beneath Boston’s notice finally.

11:58
Jeff Sullivan: @Nate: Red Sox had baseball’s 7th-easiest schedule, according to Baseball Reference. Nothing ridiculous

11:59
Jeff Sullivan: Oh, right, Craig Kimbrel is good

11:59
Adam: Kimbrel in a 4 run game?

11:59
Jeff Sullivan: Getting him action

11:59
Jeff Sullivan: It’s working!

12:00
Joe: Losing World Series games is a super dope feeling.

12:00
Meg Rowley: I’ll have to take your word for it.

12:00
Jeff Sullivan: 😐

12:00
Super Benintendo : Jay … wow. I mean. Just wow. Yep. I reckon Boegarts alone was worth that much (3.8…)

12:00
Meg Rowley: (but sorry you’re feeling lousy, that’s never fun)

12:00
Ben Brode: kimbrel and turner are twins? some beautiful beards out there

12:01
Meg Rowley: Cousins more like

12:01
Jay Jaffe: the Dodgers had a hell of a time moving on from the Longest Running Infield, and yet their pitching was good neough to keep them competitive for most of the decade https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAD/pos.shtml

12:01
Jeff Sullivan: Love that Leon knee-pad slide out to the other box

12:02
The 6ix: Where did the total interleague record end up this year? NL was ahead for the first time in years last time I checked.

12:02
Jeff Sullivan: NL won!

12:02
Jeff Sullivan: 158-142

12:02
Jeff Sullivan: Call it 158-143 after this one

12:03
Jeff Sullivan: There it is! Welcome to Wednesday morning, east coasters

12:03
Meg Rowley: Congrats, Boston types.

12:04
Guy Smiley: Anyone who discounts the Red Sox 108 wins (and steamrolling of the 100-win Yanks and 103-win Astros) simply hasn’t been paying attention.

12:04
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson: I don’t want this game to end, I’ll have to go back to drowning in grad work

12:04
Rob: The Eric Gagne trade finally pays off for the Red Sox!

12:04
Free Taco: Thanks for chatting with us!

12:04
Jeff Sullivan: Thanks for chatting with *us*!

12:04
Jay Jaffe: Yup thanks for stopping by, folks!

12:05
Meg Rowley: Agreed, thanks all!

12:05
Boo-urns: please tell my dog goodnight

12:05
Meg Rowley: Night, pup.

12:05
Jeff Sullivan: Tomorrow it will be Dan and Craig and possibly some other visitors

12:06
Jeff Sullivan: Until then, everyone be well and rest up! Thanks all, one more time





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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RonnieDobbs
Member
RonnieDobbs

“Oh, NICE! Joe Buck and John Smoltz! I’m super excited about this.” – LOL
Did any of y’all catch around the end of the 3rd inning where Smoltz unintelligibly rambled about 3 broken sentences and Buck bailed him out? Smoltz is pretty clearly only moderately prepared (reading notes, etc) and likes to pretend that he knows a lot more than he does and it ends in embarrassment if you pay attention. It reminds me of Tony Romo a lot, where the announcer thinks it is all about them and the game is a distant second. There is something special about a person that can just be objectively wrong so often and not learn from it or even recognize that they are running successful insight rates of less than 50%. It also confounds me that other people don’t recognize how often these guys are wrong about their” predictions” or at least don’t point it out. Really listen to some of what Smoltz says – often times it doesn’t make any sense at all.

These games should be called by the local broadcast teams – it would be awesome to have the biggest games called by actual professional baseball broadcasters as opposed to just pro announcers (Buck, Costas, etc) and ex-athletes (Smoltz, Hershizer, A-Rod, etc). The funny thing to me is that pitchers don’t get many head coaching jobs as they are generally kind of egocentric dudes that lack a thorough enough understanding of the overall game to be in a head coaching position – yet we often put them in the broadcast booth where they are constantly talking about things that they don’t understand as well as they think they do or in reality well enough to analyze at all… which is the problem with athletes announcing in the first place – they are going to tell you what they know, whether it is insightful or not. Contrast that with a professional announcer who doesn’t do that at all.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

well you do know if it was local broadcast teams- Hershiser would be one of the guys….. I think all of the color comentators are ex players.

RonnieDobbs
Member
RonnieDobbs

Yeah I know that. At least Hershizer knows the Dodgers though as opposed to Smoltz pretending to know everyone, which would be less annoying to me. When you bring in a team that doesn’t know anyone well, they are just going to be in over their head the whole time… or just calling the game – but ex-players have a hard time doing that. My real point is that I want the trend of ex-athletes in the booth to stop. No reason an ex-athlete can’t do it, but they should have to be good at it, which is currently not a requirement, cough, David Ross, cough. The best broadcast teams are sometimes times one man teams and that isn’t a coincidence. It is usually one professional and a token name or two. How about the actual professional broadcaster from each team? That would be pretty interesting.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

they never are going to stop with the trend of ex-athletes. absolutely never…… You got spoiled on Vin Scully.