2018 World Series Game One Live Chat

October 23, 2018

8:06	Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, it looks like I’m throwing out first pitch here! Welcome to our World Series Game 1 chat.

8:06	Joe: As writers, do you prefer this kind of matchup of big money teams with lots of stars, or is it better to have an underdog?

8:07	Dan Szymborski: Yah, boo.

8:07	DodgeGuys: I just wanted to say thank you for the wonderful work you all do. Looking forward to your coverage of the World Series! Hope it’s a good one!

8:07	Jeff Sullivan: It isn’t all wonderful

8:07	Carson Cistulli’s Moustaches: Would Yasiel Puig benefit spiritually from growing out a moustache in homage to that sported by Bill “The Butcher” Cutting from Gangs of New York?

8:08

Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I’m fine either way. The fun of it from this end, for me at least, is trying to figure out, “How does this team work? How can they win?” I thought, for example, that the NLCS between the Brewers and Dodgers, with the way Craig Counsell and Dave Roberts used their rosters, was fascinating, and it made it enjoyable to think along with them during the game and to write about afterwards.

8:08	Dan Szymborski: I just want stuff to happen. As long as we don’t get a bunch of 11-3 snoozers that are over in the 4th, I’m happy.

8:08	Dan Szymborski: And of course Puig would benefit.

8:09	Jeff Sullivan: Who do you want to win this game? Dodgers (59.3% \| 79 votes) Red Sox (40.6% \| 54 votes) Total Votes: 133

8:09	Jeff Sullivan: Who do you think will win this game? Dodgers (29.9% \| 38 votes) Red Sox (70.0% \| 89 votes) Total Votes: 127

8:10	Andy: Pat Venditte is with the Dodgers, isn’t he? I assume he didn’t make the PS roster, but wouldn’t it be fun to see him switching arms as he moved through the RS lineup (granted, RHB-heavy)? It would have been even more fun if Counsell had him available.

8:10	Jay Jaffe: I will always root for the success of Pat Venditte, but he’s demonstrated himself to be more or less the definition of replacement level thus far. If he’s on a postseason roster, something has gone terribly wrong.

8:10	Max Muncy: Why am I not starting?

8:10	Jay Jaffe: Because David Freese is there to mash lefties. Don’t worry, you’ll get your hacks at some point.

8:11	Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers pretty clearly have reason to believe Muncy isn’t quite as good against lefties as his numbers

8:11	Jeff Sullivan: Time to play the game where we track every Chris Sale fastball!

8:12	Dan Szymborski: It’s too easy to get caught up in one-year platoon split numbers, which really don’t mean much. Muncy had fairly typical L/R splits in the minors.

8:12	Jeff Sullivan: So far, 61% rooting for Dodgers, but 65% think Red Sox win tonight

8:13	Sad Baseball Fan: There are only 4-7 games left 🙁

8:13	Matt: Dan – I’d like to be an understudy. How do I apply for the job?

8:13	Jeff Sullivan: But they’ll last as long as 8-14 games

8:13	Matt: Oh, NICE! Joe Buck and John Smoltz! I’m super excited about this.

8:13	Jay Jaffe: Is there a space on the Fenway Park hand-operated scoreboard where I can put a “1” for “Broadcast team”?

8:13	Dan Szymborski: I get an understudy?

8:14	Jeff Sullivan: One batter, one strikeout, Sale up to 94.5mph

8:14	Muxosk: For two dominant LHPs who rely ona fastball/slider combo Sale and Kershaw have remarkably different stuff.

8:14	Jeff Sullivan: Sale has a changeup! Kershaw has never figured one out

8:14	Jeff Sullivan: Plus their arm slots almost couldn’t be more different

8:14	Jay Jaffe: But Kershaw does have Public Enemy Number One, the big curve

8:16	Sam: Can’t we just bet that all the teams will have fun?

8:16	Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Any rooting interests guys?

8:16	Dan Szymborski: Chaos.

8:16	Jeff Sullivan: Two batters, two strikeouts. Chris Sale is good

8:16	Jeff Sullivan: I root for writing material, mostly

8:17	Jeff Sullivan: Chance there for David Freese to fake a HBP. Didn’t seize it!

8:19	Tyler: Part of me wants to see one of the best pitchers duel of all time. The Sox fan in me does not.

8:19	Jeff Sullivan: You have a whole life ahead of you that will be lived after this game is over

8:19	J: Do you think, given how good the Dodgers are against RHP the Red Sox start Pomeranz in G4 and use Porcello strictly as a fireman/set up guy?

8:19	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine they trust Pomeranz enough right now

8:20	5 Run Homer: Is Public Enemy Number One the best pitch nickname?

8:21	Jeff Sullivan: First inning, first out in play, first time being tricked by the camera into believing the ball was harder off the bat

8:21	Dan Szymborski: I really wanted Seunghwan Oh to name his pitches after actual final bosses.

8:21	Jay Jaffe: Re Pomeranz/Porcello, yeah, not happening. Cora’s not going to get that cute.

8:21	Dan Szymborski:

8:21	Guy Smiley: Steve Pearce called Manny Machado “the best person I know in the game” in an interview today.

8:21	Matt: It’s time to transfer ZiPS to a Python based system. Hit me up. Insta: Q-T-Py

8:21	Jeff Sullivan: Steve Pearce is famously reclusive

8:21	Dan Szymborski: It’s possibly even more of a mess than PECOTA was.

8:22	5 Run Homer: The booing of Machado is loud, folks

8:22	MCM: Is it me or is the camera angle bad to see the pitches from these lefties?

8:22	Jeff Sullivan: Also bad to see the pitches from any potential righties

8:23	Wes: Who pitches more out of the pen this series, Kershaw or Sale?

8:23	Dan Szymborski: kershaw I think

8:24	Jeff Sullivan: Badly want to see Kershaw bust out surprise curveballs when he’s behind in the count

8:24	Jay Jaffe: Sale averaged 94.2 mph on the fastball in that inning. That seems workable but it’s about 1.5 mph below his season average for the first inning according to Brooks Baseball

8:25	Jeff Sullivan: Lots of mud over there by the Pesky Pole. Gross

8:25	Dan Szymborski: Broadcasters going way too nuts about pitchers not having faced a hitter before always annoys me.

8:26	Nick Mar – Cake is Good: Don’t like this camera angle

8:26	AdamZ: The regular NESN broadcasts have a great dead center view, what is this nonsense from Fox?

8:26	Bjorn from Swedish Sex Dungeon: I will forever root against Boston due to Fever Pitch

8:27	Jay Jaffe: the number of times Hell would have to freeze over for me to watch that movie — i’ll get back to you after Szymborski’s ZIPS computer finishes calculating it

8:27	Dan Szymborski: I much prefer center-specific views.

8:27	Jeff Sullivan: Fenway Park? Good (74.0% \| 97 votes) Bad (25.9% \| 34 votes) Total Votes: 131

8:27	Joe: Fenway park is garbage. Fight me

8:27	Jeff Sullivan: That poll is for Joe

8:27	Matt: Dan, we’ll make a deal. I’ll keep my current job, and only give them 50% of my time. You give me 10% of your income. We’re going to automate ZiPS. It’ll be like when Eisenhower made the interstates.

8:28	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Separate poll for people who have actually had to endure games at Fenway, please. Tear it down.

8:28	Jeff Sullivan: Terrible play by Puig to try to throw home on the fly

8:28	Jeff Sullivan: That’s just a free base for Benintendi

8:28	Jeff Sullivan: So it’s 1-0!

8:28	Jay Jaffe: Puig’s defense in the postseason has been atrocious. I can’t think of a gamble he’s taken that’s paid off.

8:29	Dan Szymborski: Only thing I don’t like about Fenway is the seats have to be the narrowest in baseball.

8:29	Jeff Sullivan: Ah, the world’s favorite replay review

8:29	Dan Szymborski: And I’m a bit…uh…Rubenesque.

8:29	Anonymous: Super Benintendo Chalmers!

8:30	Jay Jaffe: My first MLB regular season game was at Fenway, in May of 1989. Ticket bought 3 weeks in advance and we got Roger Clemens vs. Nolan Ryan. Slugfest, Mike Greenwell hit two homers and Bob Stanley got the save. Couldn’t believe how small the seats were or that we had to pee in troughs.

8:30	Dan Szymborski: “You know, your sleeve is great for boogers.” “I know, I was trying it like you asked me? It’s great, I can get all up in Box Canyon!”

8:30	Dan Szymborski: I can totally read lips

8:32	Jeff Sullivan: Sounds like there’s an echoing Ker-shaw chant. One of my favorites!

8:32	Matt: Jay, re: Sale FB Velo: Have you isolated late-season FB velo? Not sure if it makes a difference, but have to feel that late-season baseline is different than, say, July.

8:32	Jay Jaffe: From August onward — the point when his attendance was erratic — his average first-inning velo was 94.3 mph http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=519242&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&…

8:33	5 Run Homer: Did Joe Buck just call steal a base steal a taco a “rich tradition”?

8:33	Jay Jaffe: It made him richer.

8:33	Dan Szymborski: Steal a base, steal a taco seems to be the part of baseball that Buck is the most interested in and the part for which he can give the most detailed explanation.

8:34	Guest: It worries the hell out of me that the Kershaw “postseason failure” narrative hinges on the success of a sub-optimal Kershaw pitching.

8:34	Guy Smiley: Free tacos all around. Little reported but Sale’s trip to the hospital was from a bad Locos Taco. Yes, he’s underpaid but way too frugal.

8:35	Matt: Jay – Re Puig’s defense: I don’t watch much, but feel like he’s got a phenomenal arm. Is his problem mostly mental? He’s physically, a good defender, right?

8:35	Jeff Sullivan: 2-0 Red Sox. Benintendi lost his helmet before he’d even taken a third step off second base

8:35	5 Run Homer: This isn’t going super great for the Dodgers, IMO

8:35	Tyler: JD almost killed Benny

8:36	Jay Jaffe: powerful arm but not as accurate as it once was. Good speed, plays the foul wall pretty well but isn’t great at leaping for balls and does some dumb air-mail throws every time, it seems

8:36	Raymond: Mookie should’ve fouled out, then maybe should”ve gotten caught stealing, and then benny gets a free second base on puigs throw. Sloppy from the dodgers in the first

8:36	Jeff Sullivan: Straight to Kershaw’s playoff ERA!

8:36	Dan Szymborski: “He almost clipped…uh…his…teammate coming off second!”

8:37	Cam: Puig has a great arm. Puig also knows he has a great arm, which makes him throw the ball to stupid places, thinking he will do better.

8:38	Jeff Sullivan: Just a magnificent pickoff from Kershaw. You could see that one coming

8:38	Jeff Sullivan: Except that I guess Martinez couldn’t

8:38	Guy Smiley: Whatever the outcome, these are two of the best uniforms in all of sports.

8:38	Matt: Expanding on my Puig question – I feel I might overrate “arm” as a defensive tool in the OF. Without getting too crazy about details, if the major categories are “arm”, “jump”, “path” and “decision” – which of those four categories would be most over indexed?

8:40	Ohtani Kitean: Balk!!!!!!!!!!!!

8:40	Dan Szymborski: I hate balks. I’m 40 and been watching baseball nonstop for 35 years and I still can’t remember all the things that are balks.

8:40	Mister Puppy : I can see Cardinal fans on Twitter gleaming in delight at Kershaw’s struggles

8:40	Jay Jaffe: when you’re facing your third straight playoff-free October and cannibalism is the alternative, i guess that’s what you tell yourself?

8:41	Guest: Hope Martinez yelled LEEEEEROOOOOOY JEEEEENKIIIIIINS there.

8:41	Dystopian Future: Look, Kershaw’s “awful in the playoffs” narrative is a joke. But it’s still important to note that all 3 of those hits were over 100MPH. It’s not like he’s ridiculously unlucky, he IS getting hit hard.

8:42	Jeff Sullivan: The bad luck was mostly just Freese overrunning Betts’ foul pop

8:43	Guy Smiley: Quick sidebar: What are the odds, with the loaded free agent class coming, that we see another freeze out like last winter?

8:43	Dan Szymborski: I have heard some concern, though nobody who would go on the record.

8:43	Dan Szymborski: The top of the market won’t help the ordinary guys.

8:43	Jeff Sullivan: The mid-market players will have the same experience. The actual great players will not

8:44	Jeff Sullivan: The middle market will have to adjust because teams will never offer those contracts anymore

8:44	Dan Szymborski: See Eduardo Escobar in Arizona.

8:45	Cam: Does there come a point where we start to consider the possibility, that Kershaw does actually suck in the playoffs? We’ll see how today shakes out, but it becomes more and more difficult to fight the narrative each time.

8:46	Jay Jaffe: No. He’s had more good starts than bad – including two very good ones out of three this October. See Jon Weisman @jonweisman The current Clayton Kershaw #Dodgers playoff starts chart, heading into the #WorldSeries … • Green (11) = great,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 23 Oct 2018

8:46	Jay Jaffe: Has he pitched to his regular season level in the postseason consistenty? No. But compare his postseason numbers and start-by-start log to David Price, for example, and get back to me.

8:46	Jeff Sullivan: Regular season Kershaw: 21% K-BB Playoff Kershaw: 20% K-BB

8:47	Jeff Sullivan: (Against superior hitters, on average)

8:47	Jay Jaffe: AHA! Slacking in October.

8:47	Jeff Sullivan: The nerve!

8:47	Sadman: “My crew is all about the AL”. What sort of weird family roots for entire league

8:48	Jeff Sullivan: Matt Kemp! First half Dodgers MVP!

8:48	Jay Jaffe: If you had Matt Kemp hitting the first home run of the 2018 World Series, come claim your prize

8:48	Jeff Sullivan: Leon wanted a fastball inside. Sale threw a fastball…over the outer third. That’s a big narp

8:48	Dystopian Future: I think there’s a high probability we see another freeze-out. It was never the Machados/Harpers of the world that were getting frozen out, it was the midlevel 30somethings. And there’s the possibility that with a higher supply at the top, the midlevel guys will have it worse.

8:48	AdamZ: Joe Buck: something something launch angle. John Smoltz: has aneurysm.

8:49	Matt: I forgot sneaks on my work trip. My options are: Gym shorts, white tee and dress shoes, or put all my clothes back on. I need more wine. What’s the call here?

8:49	Dan Szymborski: The first. You wanna work out, but you also want to be a littel fancy.

8:50	Jeff Sullivan: Of minor note: Leon is giving Sale the regular, basic pitch signs. Not the complicated, paranoid pitch signs

8:50	Hyperbolisyllabicsesquidalimysti: Am I overly concerned by the fact that Sale is already at 35 pitches?

8:50	Jart: Matt Kump!

8:50	MCM: Matt, own the shorts and dress shoes look. All about confidence

8:50	Jay Jaffe: Honestly, I’d be surprised if the plan has Sale going much more than 5 innings anyway. Cora has a full bullpen including Porcello and Eovaldi

8:51	ryan: what is my prize?

8:51	Jay Jaffe: Free admission to a FanGraphs chat of your choice

8:51	Stephen: To fix the freeze out of the mid level guys, will the Players Association basically need to force a strike as to get more of the young guys paid earlier so it doesn’t seem like an overpay after a rookie contract is up at age “30”?

8:52	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the MLBPA has the unity to strike on the issue.

8:52	Jeff Sullivan: They negotiated for all the wrong things last time around

8:52	Jeff Sullivan: Terrible priorities!

8:52	Jeff Sullivan: The free-agent market is never again going to be what it was

8:52	Dan Szymborski: The majority of players weren’t even alive when Miller left the director position.

8:54	Stringer Bell: I feel like people are overreacting to last year’s free agency

8:54	Dan Szymborski: The thing is, it’s not like breaking two glasses in the kitchen. A mindset isn’t a random fluke.

8:54	B. Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: I just gotta say that “Matt Kemp, World Series MVP” would be the most baseball headline of all baseball history

8:54	Dred Scott: should Kershaw have even started this game? Threw 15 pitches on Saturday.

8:55	Jeff Sullivan: Last year it came as a surprise, but it’s going to stay like that. Teams just aren’t going to throw money away anymore

8:55

Jay Jaffe: 15 pitches — relatively efficient ones — 3 days ago? It was his throw day. There’s no way the Dodgers would have done that if they had concerns about his availability or preparation for Game 1. Atributing his first-inning struggles to that when his defense let him down (at least in part – yes, those 3 100+ mph scorchers happened) is a reach

8:55	Facu: I live in Panama so I didn’t understand why you all hate Smoltz. Now I’m at a hotel watching the US transmission and I get it.

8:55	Dan Szymborski: The people that laughed about the Dodgers giving five years to Juan Pierre are buy and large the type of people who are making front office decisions now.

8:57	Dan Szymborski: Guy in commercial was HIRED not FIRED!!!111 WHATATWIST

8:57	Ian Desmond: Dan, I demand that you tell me that I am a good base

8:57	Dan Szymborski: You might make a good base.

8:58	Mike: Sale at 50 pitches in 2 innings

8:58	Jeff Sullivan: 51 pitches, but at least he’s got seven whiffs

8:58	Sad Mariners Fan: How will using starters out of the bullpen affect their availability?

8:58

Jay Jaffe: If it’s done right, it shouldn’t. The idea is that you get them to throw an inning on their throw day and they’ll have recovered in time for their start. So far we’ve seen it work pretty well this fall. Eovaldi, Porcello, Sale… I guess somebody is going to attribute Kershaw’s problems here to that, but as I said, I think that’s a reach.

8:58	Jeremy: What is something reasonable the players union could “give up” in exchange for, say, granting guaranteed free agency at age 27?

8:59	Jeff Sullivan: Barnes really trying to frame the snot out of those fastballs down

8:59	Dan Szymborski: “MLBPA gets major concession from owners and are now allowed unlimited hot sauce in the dugout. MLBPA gives owners extra year until free agency.”

9:02	J: At least the MLBPA recently hired a lawyer. Progress!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if Ian Kinsler even knows he’s in the playoffs

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Has he done a single thing?

9:03	Hank: Is throwing an inning in a game really the same as a throw day? Factoring in longer warm-ups for starters to get ready for game action and most not generally throwing 100% in a side session.

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Everybody go rewatch that 0-and-1 curveball to Leon

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: That is as beautiful as a curveball gets

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: And then that half-swing nonsense happens

9:03	Jay Jaffe: not directly the same — of course it’s higher adrenaline and stress, but the idea is that you don’t overextend a guy past the point where he can recover for his turn.

9:04	ryan: Kershaw throws the most beautiful curveball in the world, and then Sandy freakin’ Leon gets a hit

9:04	Jay Jaffe: that’s some baseball for you

9:04	Guy Smiley: Lou Merloni on the Red Sox radio feed just called Leon’s swing “an Underwater Johnson.”

9:05	Hold me close, ohtani dancer: Has Kimbrel been tipping pitches all season? Or is he actually in decline?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s just wild

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: The pitch-tipping argument is unconvincing to me

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Inning-ending double play. You could tell the fans responded before they realized teams shift now

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: (I also responded like that)

9:06	Guy Smiley: Eric Gagne (yes, that one) claims to have caught Kimbrel’s pitch tipping and tipped off former Dodger teammate Alex Cora to it.

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I read the article, but it didn’t persuade me

9:07	Ray: It will take my heart about 25 years to get used to a defender often being up the middle

9:07	Anonymous: I thought we, as a civilization, agreed to never mention Eric Gagne again?

9:07	Jay Jaffe: the Bradley GIDP is the 4th ball the Red Sox have hit with an exit velo of at least 100 MPH, but none of them has been elevated (max launch angle 9 degrees, on the Martinez hit), which has helped Kershaw limit the damage somewhat.

9:07	Jay Jaffe: Still, not a great trend

9:09	Guest: All season? Decline? Maybe I missed something about kimbrel’s season

9:09	Jay Jaffe: Kimbrel had several rough patches and finished with his worst FIP and HR/9, and second-worst ERA. Wrote about him (and Jansen) today https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/world-series-offers-rare-meeting-of-po…

9:09	Guest: What will be the dumbest controversy during the series? My vote goes for a questionable infield fly rule call.

9:10	Jay Jaffe: Something something Machado something

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: A bit of good opposite-field hitting so far today

9:11	Dan Szymborski: Wow, teams win more in games in which they hit a HR. SABERMATRIX!

9:11	Matt: Jeff – What is your evidence on your FA market theory? I feel like the anecdotal evidence of context-of-market is pretty strong. But I also don’t have any numerical data to refute it. I mean this as a sincere challenge to your positions is that – it just doesn’t seem backed up.

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Basically, talking to people who make these decisions

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: There’s so much value in productive arb and pre-arb players. There’s reduced value in a 2-win 32-year-old

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Those mid-market players will still get jobs, but not with long guarantees

9:12	Chris: Am I wrong to think Kershaw’s getting squeezed? Really looked like Timmons wanted to call that curve on the corner a ball

9:13	Jay Jaffe: Yes, it looks like Kershaw’s been squeezed on a few pitches. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?&game=gid_2018_10_23…

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Low curveballs are really hard on umpires

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Benintendi didn’t feel like diving for that one!

9:14	Arthur: Perfect set up for Machado to batflip a go ahead hit and have people hate him even more

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Distance of the Bregman fly out: 255 ft Distance of the Freese single: 251 ft

9:14	Uncle Spike: Why did it take so long forvthe market to figure out 2 win 32 year olds aren’t that valuable?

9:14	Dan Szymborski: Inertia

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Here we are, 2-2 in the top of the third, of one of the greatest pitching matchups in World Series history

9:15	Jay Jaffe: RBI single for Machado, the 3rd straight single. Tie ballgame

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: These singles: 94, 90, and 88 miles per hour off the bat

9:16	Jay Jaffe: Chris Sale can’t pitch in the World Series, i guess

9:16

Matt: To continue my FA Question – That’s kinda my point thought. That’s a – theoretical – correction on market prices against the inflated prices previously. Many would argue that the context of last season’s market (major players being without need, major FA’s not being in abundance, etc) was what adjusted the prices away from what we usually see. So, if context was the issue (and not environment), there’s not real reason to believe that it will continue (or that it won’t…)

9:16	Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe the context was the issue. It didn’t help especially a few players.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t prove it yet. It’s just an informed forecast

9:17	Dan Szymborski: But it doens’t take Rosenthal to talk to people in front offices and realize that teams are evaluating players very differently than 15-20 years ago even.

9:17	Guest: Do you guys casually drink during these chats? If so what’s your choice tonight?

9:17	Dan Szymborski: I usually do, but I’m just drinking Coke because i have a headcache

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Nope

9:17	Anonymous: The Ghost of Eno Sarris just rattled its chains

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Sale’s 69th pitch wasn’t nice

9:18	Jay Jaffe: Not these days, no. I need a beer or two afterwards thoguh

9:18	Buffalo Springfield: Just wanted to say I’m happy we’ve gotten some great new writers at Fangraphs. You’re killing it, Jay.

9:18

Chris: With so many teams adopting advanced statistical analysis, would it be possible/prudent for the MLBPA to create salary controls for players like 2 win 32 year olds? Like you roll back the value of a win a bit to like 6.5 or 5/win, but then everyone works? Can’t imagine the union is super in on the game being dominated by team controlled players

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: But Jay, afterwards is like 1 in the morning?

9:18	Jay Jaffe: Aw shucks, thank you for the kind words. I’m just trying to uphold the high standards of the folks who build this place into such a powerhouse, some of whom have gone and some of whom still remain.

9:18	Jay Jaffe: Yes, Jeff. to quote Waylon Jennings, ain’t living long like this.

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I want to sleep at 8:30!

9:19	Jay Jaffe: I also have a 2 year old to tend to in the mornings, and a wife who’s up every bit as late editing the likes of Stark and Rosenthal for The Athletic. October is hell.

9:19	Dan Szymborski: All the salary controls would do is that the star players would come cheaply and owners would keep more money; it wouldn’t create any more interesting in middling veterans.

9:20	kevinthecomic: Dan, what do les chats do during the World Series?

9:20	Dan Szymborski: I’m going Game 2 fully, I’m mostly here for the early part (so the first 3 hours or so out of 6)

9:20	Sad Mariners Fan: Who hurt their earning power more, Grandal or Machado

9:20	Jay Jaffe: Grandal, easily

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: No question

9:20	Dan Szymborski: Machado hasn’t hurt his earning power at all

9:21	Nitro Nic: Are umpires zones or pitchers “stuff” game to game a bigger variable?

9:21	Jay Jaffe: Machado has maybe cost himself some PR points. some team making a show of not pursuiing him. Grandal’s actively turning off suitors

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Umpire zones. Pitcher stuff doesn’t fluctuate much

9:21	ryan: Smoltz complains all game about launch angle and strikeouts, and then applauds Turner, a poster child of the launch angle revolution” for having “one of the best approaches” on the team…

9:21	kevinthecomic: Ummm, sorry, les chats is French for the cats

9:21	Dan Szymborski: Oh, I thought it was a typo

9:21	Dan Szymborski: Cats don’t care about baseball.

9:21	Jay Jaffe: expecting intellectual consistency from a broadast booth is a hell of a thing

9:22	Cam: Starter inefficiency, like Sale’s tonight, less of a worry in the postseason because of bullpen-reliance?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Bingo

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, they’d prefer Sale look awesome and 100%, but they’re prepared to fill in all the extra innings they need to

9:23	Hyperbolisyllabicsesquidalimysti: Has Sale not been squeezed too?

9:23	Dan Szymborski: “Hey, for our commercial talking about launch angle, make sure Skip Schumaker is the first player we show in the video package for some reason.”

9:23	Jay Jaffe: as of now, Hyper, it looks about even in terms of number of pitches inside the zone that were called balls

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Boy that is a perfect full-count slider to Betts

9:24	Arthur: Why can’t we just make a bunch of clones of Mike Petriello and Jason Benetti to call every game

9:24	Guy Smiley: Neither starter is at their career best.

9:25	Mike: I came to make a snarky skip schumaker comment, got beat by Dan

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: That was an extremely deceptive fly ball off the bat

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Always makes me laugh when hitters don’t know where they hit the ball

9:26	Dan Szymborski: Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski I once saw a scouting report for Skip Schumaker. His weakness at the plate is pitches. 2 Sep 2015 <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

9:26	Dan Szymborski: I think that was my meanest Schumaker comment.

9:27	Dan Szymborski: This was the most esoteric

9:27	Jay Jaffe: For sale: one very adorable 2-year-old girl who is nursing a cold and possessed by Satan. Needs to be re-tucked in every 10 minutes during postseason games. Inquire within.

9:27	Dan Szymborski: Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski Skip Schumaker is less successful against lefties than the White Russians. 29 Oct 2011 <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

9:27	nickg: “You cannot simulate baseball when you’re resting.”

9:28

jonnyzuck: My dad, a fan of an AL team in his 60s always roots for the AL to win the WS regardless of who the teams are. I am in my 20s and I give no consideration to the league when I decide who I root for in the WS and I haven’t heard anyone my age that always roots for the team in their league. Is that something that is relatively unique to my dad or is it because he grew up in an era where the AL and NL were operated more like 2 different leagues as opposed to acting like conferences as they do today? And if it’s the second one, what is the approximate age cutoff for that type of thinking?

9:28	Dan Szymborski: I acutally would have put the cutoff as older than 60s.

9:28	Jay Jaffe: good lord that Machado play.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Visually that was an extremely weird double play

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Freese is the only first baseman I’ve ever seen to pick a ball without doing that vertical glove swipe

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Also Pearce was safe at first

9:29	Matt: I feel like the next great insight in RE-type things ia going to be sequencing related and involving Markov Chains. Dan – 7%. And the tacos are still in play. This is my final offer.

9:29	Dan Szymborski: The problem about moving to Python is I’ll still have to learn Python because I always have yearly changes and versions that are a few years from primetime.

9:30	Joe: Safe and interference! This will only take 57 minutes to resolve.

9:30	PitchClocksPlease: Jay…Pro tip – Bee pollen (I take 3 pills) about 1 hour before you want to snooze. Deep slumber, no grogginess when you have to get up.

9:30	Jay Jaffe: PEDs!

9:30	Dystopian Future: The broadcast booths are politics just like everything else. If you stuck two statheads in there the viewing audience would likely be a lot smaller, and die-hards like the people here will watch the game regardless, so they don’t care.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: You’re not wrong

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: “Come on, Timmy, let’s go!” Dave Roberts, to umpire Tim Timmons after a squeeze

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: And then Kershaw promptly earns the benefit of the doubt on an edge fastball!

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Work! The! Refs!

9:31	Python?: I assumed that ZIPS was coded in Python. What is it coded in, then?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: J.D. Martinez is such an extraordinary hitter. 3-2 Red Sox

9:32	Dan Szymborski: I got it all out of Statistica some years ago, so it’s a spider’s web of Excel and some add-ons.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Just stayed on that low slider and drove it like 415 feet?

9:32	B. Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: WTF? No Python for ZiPS? Get with the times!

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: oh god didn’t need to see that replay of Martinez’s ankle

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: That was aesthetically upsetting

9:33	Dan Szymborski: The other analysts make fun of me for not being an R guy.

9:33	JY: 409 foot, 109 mph double

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how Martinez is walking right now

9:34	Arthur: I’m glad that my main interests of economics and baseball are united by their arguments over statistical programming languages

9:34	Matt: What’s the Pirate’s FO’s favorite coding language?…….Rrrrrrrrrr

9:34	Dan Szymborski: The Mets code things in pig Latin.

9:34	Joe: Give me Stata or give me death

9:34	Dan Szymborski: Even with Stata, you’re still going to die someday

9:34	JD Martinez’s ankle: Ouch

9:34	Tyler: I can say from personal experience there is no need for the top of the base to be as smooth as it is

9:34	Guy Smiley: I think JDM’s shoe came off. I don’t think that was all his ankle turning.

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I sure hope so!

9:35	Joe: Check back on that ankle in about 45 minutes.

9:35	Joe: I’m an orioles fan. I’m already dead

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: But you have so much international money to spend!

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: On no one

9:35	CamdenWarehouse: Mets: you want to code? like Hammurabi?

9:36	Guy Smiley: Oh, they’re gonna rue that intentional walk…

9:36	just boof it : Soooo Manny Machado is good at shortstop, right?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Playable, for now. He’s probably somewhere around -5 to 0 runs

9:36	Jay Jaffe: didn’t like it but they got away with the IBB

9:37	Sadman: Wtf are these capital one cafès?

9:38	Dan Szymborski: “You know how nobody goes to the bank anymore? We wanted more of a hipster version of a place that nobody actually goes to.”

9:38	Didi: Sad after this commercial that Didi Gregorius needed tommy john :/

9:38

Matt: I have been invesitvatignn RE, and mostly got my numbers to match Tom Tango’s. I then split Regular Seaon and Post season. Without having gotten so far as to look into sample-size related noise, I’m seeing some interesting trend that early base-out (first, one out) has lower run expectancy, and late base-out has higher. This seems to speak to both better pitching and better offense. Any analysis done on the difference in RE between regular season and post season, and maybe some insight into different approaches in managing?

9:39	Dan Szymborski: Imagine, living in a world in which Bruce Springsteen is watching the same thing on a television as you are.

9:39	Dan Szymborski: Buck is easily amazed.

9:39	Jay Jaffe: half of the BBWAA has that fantasy.

9:40	scott: I don’t want to make you nervous, Dan, but Thom Yorke is reading this live chat right now

9:40	Hold me close, ohtani dancer: is a large part of “X can’t pitch in the playoffs” just that pitching in the playoffs is hard and especially so after a long season?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Well realistically Price has a huge gap between regular-season and playoff ERA, and Kershaw is up there too

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: But mostly it is bullshit

9:41	Dan Szymborski: DID YOU KNOW: Jon Bon Jovi’s lungs ALSO inhale oxygen which enters the bloodstream? We really are in the future now.

9:41	Chris: I wish Joe Buck was there to provide this star tracking service for all television shows. Would love to know that Ringo Starr is watching Riverdale with me right now

9:41	Ted in HR: Do you guys believe the Dodgers are complicit in the things the SI article suggests? If so, does it affect your enjoyment of them in the WS?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know all that much, but from what little I do know, I think the Dodgers will be in the clear since they fired all their criminals

9:43	Carson Cistulli: Hello, I am Carson Cistulli, Minister of Quality Control for FanGraphs dot com. I’m here to ensure the Fan Experience is as good as possible. I’d ask, if you have a moment, to complete a brief survey.

9:43	Carson Cistulli: The FanGraphs authors in this chat… … have conducted themselves admirably. (24.3% \| 38 votes) … have been fine, if not transcendent. (17.9% \| 28 votes) … ought to be ashamed of themselves. (6.4% \| 10 votes) Somehow all of the above. (51.2% \| 80 votes) Total Votes: 156

9:43	Jay Jaffe: wouldn’t surprise me if they lost some international money for a year or something. It’s not what you want to see from any team, but it’s a more abstract thing than trading for a Chapman or an Osuna when it comes to how I feel about a team I guess

9:43	Nacho: I just realized Carson is not a part of this chat. Can you forward my previous message to him?

9:44	Guy Smiley: Quick inning for Sale. He needed that.

9:44	Jay Jaffe: first 1-2-3 for either pitcher, no?

9:44	Guy Smiley: Dan should always be ashamed of himself.

9:44	CamdenWarehouse: Carson, can you turn the emojis on for the WS chats please? Thank you!

9:45	Dan Szymborski: Bank of America may have Eric, but Capital One has Eno.

9:45	Carson Cistulli: I’m actually unable to turn on emojis, because this site is intended for people above 14 years old.

9:45	Dan Szymborski: Naturally, I turn mine on in my chats.

9:46	Guy Smiley: Eovaldi up already.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: He probably takes a little longer than the average reliever, and Sale has to be close to an empty tank

9:46	Jay Jaffe: i am an old and so i have no idea what you’re talking about re: emojis

9:46	CamdenWarehouse: I mean they should be ashamed of themselves, but not because of this chat

9:46	Plouffe Bonser : Moderators/authors: are you able to change your screen name in these chats? In other words… could this literally all be Carson?

9:46	CamdenWarehouse: Just like MLB, ignoring the younger generation

9:46	Dan Szymborski: Everything’s all Carson.

9:46	Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Carson, what’s your favorite brand of Absinthe?

9:47	Carson Cistulli: Coors. I drink only Coors-brand Absinthe.

9:47	Jay Jaffe: I hear Old Milwaukee makes the best Absinthe

9:47	Dan Szymborski: Natty Boh.

9:47	Carson Cistulli: Much better than New Milwaukee’s, surely.

9:48	Anonymous: People keep talking about this awesome Red Sox offense, then I see Ian Kinsler, Sandy Leon and Jackie Bradley Jr. due up.

9:48	Jay Jaffe: it’s a stars and scrubs offense, to be sure.

9:48	Dan Szymborski: Required.

9:48	Matt: Weird. Jack White is also a certified vampire.

9:48	Meg Rowley: Hi pals.

9:49	Dan Szymborski:

9:49	Carson Cistulli: Fortunately not a day game.

9:49	Dan Szymborski: Hey Me Growler!

9:49	Schmoo: Meg is free from the bar!

9:49	Jay Jaffe: hey Meg!

9:49	Meg Rowley: I was viewing a friend’s wedding dress. She picked well, if at an inconvenient time.

9:50	Re: Emojis: Jay, there was a great movie detailing Emojis starring Patrick Stewart recently. It was the creatively-named “Emoji Movie”.

9:50	Mister Puppy : Jeff, what is your secret to falling asleep in 30 seconds? I can’t even do that after a dangerously large dose of Benadryl

9:50	Jay Jaffe: Jesus, Felipe and Matty Alou, how much did they pay Patrick Stewart?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan:

9:50	Section329: Sheesh Meg- in a bar?

9:50	Byron Buxton : Hi Meg!

9:50	CamdenWarehouse: Meg!

9:51	Meg Rowley: No, but her appointment was at 6, so I stopped in at a bar to watch the first couple of innings.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: That was an extremely easy inning for both pitchers, highlighted by Jackie Bradley Jr. carrying his bat all the way to first base

9:52	Jay Jaffe: I don’t think either of these aces is gonna call this one a gem, but both have hung in there reasonably well despite some breaks going the other way. Sale: 4 5 2 2 1 7 Kershaw 4 6 3 3 2 5

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: And against very good lineups!

9:53	Jay Jaffe: right

9:53	Jay Jaffe: and I don’t think either has more than an inning left

9:54	Lauro: Would you let Kershaw face Mookie agian?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Me neither. Kershaw is about to get to the danger zone of the lineup again

9:54	CamdenWarehouse: one very good lineup and one that cares about launch angle

9:54	Carson Cistulli: I probably wouldn’t.

9:54	Dan Szymborski: The problem with this commercial is that about already uses up my weekly supply of wanting-to-watch-Skip.

9:54	Jay Jaffe: My god, do you just repeat the phrase launch angle as a slur because John smoltz told you to?

9:55	Carson Cistulli: Sale’s third time through now.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Feel like Sale isn’t completing this inning

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Got badly squeezed on that 3-and-1 pitch

9:56	MCM: Here comes Cora…

9:56	Meg Rowley: Jeff, you smartie.

9:56	Jay Jaffe: Sale’s out

9:56	Jeff Sullivan:

9:56	Carson Cistulli: More umpire or more Leon, you think, Jeff?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: That one felt mostly like umpire. Tight edges today for both guys

9:57	Dan Szymborski: Time for Barnes!

9:57	Schmoo: That inside pitch on the righties has been a coin flip every time. No consistency.

9:57	Stuafoo: And here begins the start of the 5 hr game

9:57	Meg Rowley: I feel better about having plans now

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Will be interesting to see if the Red Sox go to the complicated pitch signs now that Sale is out. They did that before against the Astros

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: And by interesting I mean ehhh

9:58	Jay Jaffe: Looking at the Brooks Baseball map again, i think Sale has now surpassed Kershaw in terms of times squeezed. My quick count was about 8 potential strikes called balls for Boston, and 5 for LA. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?&game=gid_2018_10_23…

9:58	Carson Cistulli: Any guesses on Matt Barnes’ curve rate in this appearance?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: 60%!

9:59	Carson Cistulli: As Sullivan noted, he recently threw 14 of 15.

9:59	Carson Cistulli: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/matt-barnes-threw-14-curveballs-in-15-…

9:59	Carson Cistulli: He was about 40% on the season.