2018 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
One will notice, upon a cursory examination of the projections below, that five of the Royals’ position players are forecast to produce roughly two or more wins in 2018. A closer inspection of the names attached to those figures, however, reveals that three of them — Lorenzo Cain (579 PA, 3.1 zWAR), Eric Hosmer (654, 1.9), and Mike Moustakas (559, 2.5) — appear here not because they’re currently employed by the Royals, but rather because they were formerly employed by the Royals, have been granted free agency, and simply remain unsigned as of January 8th.

Indeed, of the players currently under contract with the club, only Whit Merrifield (648, 2.5) and Salvador Perez (525, 2.6) are projected to record more than two wins next season. Perhaps more remarkably, ZiPS calls for only a single other hitter, Alex Gordon (498, 1.4), to cross even the one-win threshold. Five of the club’s most likely starting nine, meanwhile, feature WAR projections that round to zero. As presently constructed, this team appears almost to be an experiment designed to test the validity of “replacement level” as a concept.

Of some interest here, in a way that isn’t wholly relevant to the Royals, is ZiPS’ assessment of Eric Hosmer. On Friday, Craig Edwards endeavored to give Scott Boras the benefit of the doubt in the latter’s appraisal of Hosmer’s value. With a number of caveats and conditions, he was nearly able to support Boras’s claims with logic, but even that optimistic calculus was based on the assumption that Hosmer is at least a three-win player right now. Dan Szymborski’s model suggests that isn’t the case.

Pitchers
For the second straight year, it’s necessary for this author to observe uneasily that a certain club’s rotation might look more impressive were it not for the loss of one of its constituents. Last year, that club was the Marlins; this year, the Royals. No, Yordano Ventura wasn’t the equal of Jose Fernandez, but he’d produced three average seasons entering 2017, possessed a live arm, and had the benefit of youth.

In Ventura’s absence, Danny Duffy (157.1, 2.7) played the role of staff ace admirably this past season, producing more than three wins in 2017. ZiPS calls for another better-than-average campaign. Unfortunately, there’s little substance behind the left-hander. Jason Hammel (150.2, 1.1), Jake Junis (154.1, 0.8), Nate Karns (93.1, 0.9), and Ian Kennedy (145.2, 0.8) all profile more or less as fifth starters. Unfortunately, only one of them can technically occupy that role, while the others are miscast in a different one.

As for the bullpen, a version of Kelvin Herrera (60.0 IP, 88 ERA-, 0.7 zWAR) remains to throw high-leverage innings. Ryan Buchter (57.0, 82, 0.7) is also the recipient of a promising forecast. No other reliever is projected to produce a 90 ERA- or lower, however.

Bench/Prospects
Infielder Hunter Dozier (456 PA, -0.5 zWAR) missed a lot of the 2017 season due to injury but is a candidate to carve out some sort of role with the big-league club this next season. Nicky Lopez (559, 0.7) probably isn’t likely to carve out a role with the big-league club. He does receive the top WAR projection, however, among all rookie-eligible Royals.

Right-hander Trevor Oaks (140.1, 2.0 zWAR) isn’t merely one of the best pitchers omitted from the depth-chart image below, he’s one of the club’s best pitchers period — according to ZiPS, at least. Received in the deal that sent Scott Alexander to the Dodgers, Oaks has a real argument for a place in the Kansas City rotation — according to ZiPS, at least.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Royals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.