Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:00
Travis Sawchik: This is my first chat of 2018, Happy New Year …

12:00
Travis Sawchik: I wish there was more to report http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/transactions/#month=1&year=2018

12:00
Travis Sawchik: The stove is ice cold

12:01
Travis Sawchik: But we’ll talk our way through this lull …

12:01
Corey: Is “solving” pitch sequencing a feasible goal for teams looking to gain a new competitive advantage?

12:02
Travis Sawchik: I think there is something there to be mined … changing eye levels, disrupting timing, creating anxiety, are real things and can probably be quantified

12:02
BK: Andruw Jones HOF candidacy 🙁

12:03
Travis Sawchik: To the choir: the HoF and the voting could stand to use some reform

12:03
Bryan in Boise: pretty slow offseason right now. Who is the 1st big name to sign in your opinion? I am thinking Darvish but at this point I have no idea any more.

12:04
Travis Sawchik: If you look at the last couple of FA cycles, and at top-rotation-level arms, they are usually off the board by now …  so I think that’s a good thought. Darvish is the top talent out there,  imo

12:04
Travis Sawchik: And speaking of sequencing, I think he showed with the Dodgers that he has some untapped upside

12:05
Travis Sawchik: (regular season Darvish, that is)

12:06
Hannah Hochevar: Tough Zips forecast for KC, eh?

12:06
Travis Sawchik: Brutal!

12:06
Travis Sawchik: Lot of Zeros in there  ….  but we know the Royals are in bad shape

12:06
Travis Sawchik: Hosmer makes little sense there

12:07
Chico: Austin Barnes was pretty great in a part time role last year. Do you think he gets more ABs this year? Similar production? Thanks

12:07
Travis Sawchik: Barnes was excellent last year. He essentially became the starter in the postseason

12:08
Travis Sawchik: I think Barnes gets the lion’s share of time in 2018 and Grandal is still really good

12:08
Travis Sawchik: Barns-Grandal combined for 9 BWARP last year … basically a hidden Mike Trout tandem

12:09
EVH: which is more likely: remaining top FA’s sign 1yr deals or settle for a lower AAV?

12:09
Travis Sawchik: The top 10 guys? Lower AAVs

12:09
Travis Sawchik: Maybe a few 1-year deals

12:11
Travis Sawchik: The problem with 1-year deals this year is next year’s FA class

12:11
martin: Let us say that the Red Sox get J.D Martinez to sign. Do you think the Yankees still run away with the AL East as all the experts have predicted? The way I see it, both teams are pretty much adding an elite hitter to their lineup while keeping teams the same way as it was last year. In your opinion, which is more likely, the Red Sox and Yankees going head-to-head all season or the Yankees running away with the AL East?

12:12
Travis Sawchik: Our projections have each club with 91 wins at the moment, so in theory JDM would improve the Red Sox by a significant measure on the win curve

12:13
Travis Sawchik: But I,  personally, think the Yankees would remain the favorite. They’d get a full year out of the super pen they put together at the deadline .

12:13
Nats: What’s a realistic trade for the Nats to acquire Realmuto?

12:15
Travis Sawchik: Nats could really use a catching upgrade. Realmuto would be a nice fit

12:15
Travis Sawchik: And he should be pretty expensive coming off a 5-BWARP season and with three years of control

12:16
Travis Sawchik: I’d ask for Soto and another significant prospect

12:16
James: What kind of year do you think Jason Kipnis will have in 2018?

12:19
Travis Sawchik: Kipnis is reportedly moving back to second, and Ramirez to third….maybe that will help him, and help restore his overall value. He’s rebounced before … I think he’ll have a mild rebound. He was just never really healthy last season.

12:20
Bryan in Boise: I keep looking at the market and I feel like Lorenzo Cain is being almost forgotten. He plays a great CF and he still runs the bases really well. He appears to me to have more value than JDM or Hosmer just due to the position he plays and overall skill set.

12:20
Travis Sawchik: I think Cain could be a good value play with the way things are going. He’s the only impact CF option in FA

12:21
Dougy: If he could go back in time, do you think Cashman would just trade Shane Greene for Robbie Ray?  Knowing what he knows, would he prefer Didi or Ray?

12:21
Travis Sawchik: I’d get in the time machine and take Ray … if that was available

12:21
Bobert: Travis what do you think the Dodgers should do with their catching situation?

12:22
Travis Sawchik: Unless I was overwhelmed by a trade offer, I’d keep it together. Barnes-Grandal have formed one of the most valuable positional groups in baseball the last two years

12:22
Travis Sawchik: And you’re just one foul tip away from needing a catcher

12:23
Fat Green Puppet: Angels will fail to make playoffs this year and next winter put Mike Trout on the market as an alternative to Harper and then build around Ohtani with their untouched farm.

12:23
Travis Sawchik: I think that’s pretty unlikely. Even if a FO likes that in theory, you’d have to sell ownership on it

12:23
Yu Arrieta-Cobb: Based on what you are hearing or your educated guess, who is the most likely of the remaining free agent SP to sign with the Cubs?

12:23
Travis Sawchik: I still like Darvish there

12:24
Travis Sawchik: Cubs need an impact arm to keep up with the super teams

12:24
Bryan in Boise: This is the time of year where Scott Boras just kills owners, Dombrowski does not stand a chance. Just my .02 cents

12:24
Travis Sawchik: We’ll see. This year seems different. Boras has a ton of unsigned clients and not all of them are steaks

12:25
Travis Sawchik: I’m kind of surprised JDM is not yet a Red Sox

12:25
Ghost of Duke Snider: Yelich to Dodgers for Walker Buehler, Yadier Alvarez, Gavin Lux, and either Joc Pederson, or, if the Marlins want someone who’s making the major league minimum instead, Andrew Toles. Does that package get it done, and do you think Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi, and Co. would do it?

12:26
Travis Sawchik: I wouldn’t move Buehler and the Dodgers can win a WS without Yelich, who ought to be really expensive in terms of prospect rerturn

12:26
JSDee: Solarte feels like a great add for the Jays.  Am I overrating an average player or does YS’s mild versatility (plays a few positions adequately) get underrated by contribution stats such as WAR?

12:26
Dosh Jonaldson: Blue Jays seem to be stockpiling big league calibre depth (Diaz, Solarte most recently). Is this an indication that they’re going to try to stay competitive to bridge to Vlad/Bo and co? If yes, what would you want them to do to round off the offseason, given that this is the decided direction?

12:27
Lost: Is this the place to come and ask Luis Urias questions? Did he tell Solarte to move and get out of the way?

12:29
Travis Sawchik: Interesting deal! I like it for the Padres. I don’t think the Blue Jays should be adding, rather, shedding and  thinking about building around the Vlad/Bo future core

12:29
Travis Sawchik: This is always the place to ask Urias questions.

12:30
Travis Sawchik: San Diego can make an argument it has the best farm in baseball

12:30
Sean: True or false: There will never be another transaction in baseball and the rest of eternity will be the 2017 season on repeat until everyone everywhere is cold and in the grave?

12:30
Travis Sawchik: I believe most answers reside in a middle ground or gray area

12:31
NatsFan: How do teams consider windows when trading for prospects? For instance if the Nats were to trade Robles or Soto I wonder if some teams might prefer Soto for ceiling and a window that is a couple more years off. This despite the fact(?) that Robles is a better prospect.

12:31
Travis Sawchik: Interesting question. I think it varies from team to team and their comfort with risk. For instance, the White Sox have been comfortable taking on a ton or risk and shooting for upside in returns

12:32
Dominik: Why isn’t someone offering an insurance for top young players. Say you get 20m for 15% of what you make the next 10 years after free agency if you had one 5 win or 2 3 win seasons (you would need to do math to not make that a losing business). That way less young good players would sign terrible contracts like rizzo, longo or goldschmidt and more players get to free agency younger and make more money.

12:32
Travis Sawchik: [Thinking emoji face]

12:32
Travis Sawchik: That would be an entirely new insurance market

12:32
Mike M: You’re building an expansion team and you have to choose between Bradley Zimmer and Albert Almora in CF, who ya got?

12:34
Travis Sawchik: Zimmer. Incredible tools and has shown an ability to improve and make significant adjustments … Upside/floor question

12:34
Sonny: If a team’s doctors discovered a preventative, out patient surgery that strengthened the UCL to a point that made TJ a thing of the past would that doc be honor bound to share their discovery? Would the team have any claims of IP rights to the procedure? How would pitcher valuations change if TJ was eliminated?

12:35
Travis Sawchik: I’m not an expert on medical rights/discovery patents … but it wouldn’t be kept a secret. Many doctors perform TJS, for instance

12:35
pickled relish: Any washed up starters on the free agent market that might make good relievers?

12:36
Travis Sawchik: Tom Koehler!  (Oh, nevermind)

12:36
Sonny: Is pitching staff turnover weighted when examining a catcher’s year to year framing stats?

12:36
Travis Sawchik: I believe BP accounts for pitcher skill

12:37
Earl Weaver: Austin Hays to me came out of nowhere last year. I’m trying to temper my expectations after his last year’s numbers but I’m hoping he can claim a starting Orioles outfield job. What are your thoughts, can he do it? If so, what kind of numbers to you expect? Will he hit for power in the bigs?

12:38
Travis Sawchik: His bat-to-ball, power and glove are all real. Baseball rat. … It seems that he struggled to adjust to breaking stuff and sequencing in the ML. I like him. Getting to the majors last year was really impressive.

12:39
Estevao: Zack Greinke as a dodger, ranking in MLB, from 13-15

2nd in ERA 2.30
5th in WHIP 1.03
2nd in ERA- .63
2nd in RE24 (Run Expectancy) 96.22
2nd in RA9-WAR 24.5
3rd in BR WAR 17.5

Cost 23.3 a year, no loss of 1rst round pick netted LA the 32nd overall pick in the 16 Draft
https://t.co/ehWUOfAaIZ

12:39
Travis Sawchik: Club-friendly contract!

12:39
Bobert: What is the “success rate” of a full-scale rebuild?

12:40
Travis Sawchik: This is probably worth a study since half the league is doing it it seems

12:40
Travis Sawchik: The Astros might have set an example that is hard to match and could lead teams into too extreme of rebuilds

12:40
JSDee: How can there be any market for Moustakas in a world where the Padres will give you Chase Headley?

12:40
Travis Sawchik: Moustakas might be available in February

12:41
Travis Sawchik: And a lot of FAs will be available in February

12:41
Travis Sawchik: There could be a lot of value in February

12:41
Ari: Why don’t teams front load contracts? Wouldn’t it be beneficial for teams with low current salary commitments to do this so they have less money to pay to a player on the tail end of a big contract?

12:41
Travis Sawchik: The Phillies have done some of this … Makes sense for teams with lower payroll commitments

12:42
ATCQ: Should we pay more attention when infielders are converted to the outfield?  Like, when Dee Gordon moved to CF, that took away one of an already small number of buyers for CFers, thus hurting the CF market for Cain/Dyson considerably.  #supplyanddemand

12:42
Travis Sawchik: That didn’t help Cain, for sure.  And it’s the easier transition to make, going out inside of in

12:42
Wes: What are the odds Ohtani finishes the season with 0 service time after undergoing TJS in spring training?

12:42
Travis Sawchik: Greater than zero

12:43
Aaron: Let’s say the Pirates do trade Cutch, Cole, and Harrison. They have to go all in and trade the other pieces too, right? Marte, Polanco, Taillon, Glasnow all have value. Maybe they wait until the deadline for some of those players to build their value higher?

12:43
Travis Sawchik: Depends how deeply they want to rebuild … I’d be surprised if Taillon was moved

12:44
Travis Sawchik: The other issue is how many buyers are there out there for a Marte or Polanco?

12:44
Royals ZiPS: Have you taken a look at the Royals ZiPS, which came out today? Oof. It’s looking pretty ugly in KC

12:44
Travis Sawchik: Not great

12:46
CamdenWarehouse: who is your pick for worst record this year?

12:46
Travis Sawchik: Royals, Marlins and White Sox could have a good race to the bottom …

12:47
Richard: Regarding your TJ article: I wonder if pitchers throwing harder but still maintaining that old school attitude to stay in the game as long as they can could be to blame for the rise in TJ injuries.  Now that these guys are getting pulled earlier, could that explain the decrease in injuries?

12:47
Travis Sawchik: Part of it could be small samples, more alternative methods …. but I’d like to think all this obsession over workload is having an impact

12:47
ATCQ: Did the Royals give up too much (Scott Alexander) just to dump a few mil in salary (Soria)?  Didn’t Soria have some value of his own?  Or is Trevor Oaks the real deal?

12:48
Travis Sawchik: I thought the return was light. Alexander is Zach Britton Lite … he was last year, at least

12:49
Bort: I’m still holding a candle for Dilson Herrera. Is it time to let it go?>

12:49
Travis Sawchik: Dilson needs a big year, yeah

12:49
LegallyEagle: Shouldn’t the Dodgers look to trade Grandal and get something for him before he hits FA?

12:50
Travis Sawchik: Yeah, but they also have more short-term interests (winnigng WS) than most teams

12:50
Justino: Why all the talk about the Cubs upgrading CF with Yelich or Cain, given what it would cost them? Is there anything I am missing when watching Almora Jr? It looks like he is ready to take over an every day role, but apparently Theo or Joe disagree.

12:50
Travis Sawchik: I’d be focused on pitching

12:50
ATCQ: Do Twins sign a 3B like Frazier, given Sano’s uncertainty?  Or just focus money on pitching?

12:51
Travis Sawchik: I could see Frazier signing as an insurance option if the price is right

12:51
ATL: who do you like more over the next 5 years: Albies or Moncada?

12:51
Travis Sawchik: Albies is better than many think … but I’d still take Moncada

12:52
Floyd: Hi Travis – who do you have more faith in as a starter – Trevor Williams (soft contact in 2017) or Chad Kuhl (+velo, expanding repertoire but too many walks) or both? – thanks!

12:52
Travis Sawchik: Kuhl, I think … as you mentioned the velo and expanding pitch offerings

12:52
Ben: Right now Pujols is at 89 WAR and Beltre is at 84. Suppose Pujols adds 1 WAR before he retires and Beltre adds 6 and they both ended with an even 90. In your opinion which is more impressive/valuable, Pujols with his peak or Beltre with his longevity?

12:53
Travis Sawchik: Two amazing players … I’d rather have Pujols’ peak, though

12:54
Brent: Could the dodgers keeping 2 very good catchers be an example of a good player that actually produces negative value (through opportunity cost and that one cannot produce while the other is playing) for the team? Considering how few good catchers are playing now, much less available ones, couldn’t they extract more value by trading one? Whether for prospects or to help upgrade somewhere else?

12:54
Travis Sawchik: Barnes is athletic enough to play in a UTL role at times, too. They just have such a competitive advantage there, i’d want a big return on one year of Grandal

12:56
Anon: I feel like Judge has a much bigger chance of being a 3 WAR type guy than he does to have another season similar to last year. How far off am I?

12:57
Travis Sawchik: Steamer says not so far off … http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15640&position=OF

12:57
Craig in CHI: Why isn’t a contender targeting Bour?  That guy was great, last year.

12:58
Travis Sawchik: Quite a few guys like Bour available

12:58
Pip: Doesn’t Grandal make a lot more sense than Realmuto? Why break the farm when you can get one year of an equally valuable catcher for significantly less? I still have a hard time invisioning the dodgers going with both to start the season.

12:58
Travis Sawchik: I love Grandal as a fit for the Nats and he should be much cheaper in acquisition cost

12:59
Dennis’s Lamp: If the Twins can’t sign Cobb, Arrieta, Darvish or Lynn, do you see them trading for a starter while they’ve still got Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, and a good Ervin Santana and 60 percennt of their division is rebuilding? Given their shortstop surplus, would a trade of Nick Gordon for Rick Porcello, a modern day Brad Radke, make sense?

1:00
Travis Sawchik: With the Tigers, Royals and White Sox basically having not shot at the division in 2018, Twins should bet on themselves a bit, and they need pitching … so I generally agree

1:00
Travis Sawchik: Darvish makes some sense in MIN

1:01
Trance Mulliniks: Who says no?

Yelich, Realmuto, and Prado to the Red Sox. Benintendi and Vazquez to the Marlins. Sox take on half of Prado’s 2/28.5M contract.

1:03
Travis Sawchik: Thing is Marlins need a White Sox-like rebuild where they collect assets that have no service time… or flip the ones they return

1:03
Sonny: Benintendi is better than Yelich. Full Stop.

1:04
Travis Sawchik: Yelich has been better the last two seasons, fwiw

1:04
Uncle Sal: Is there any reason why Sal Perez isn’t traded once Hosmer signs in SD and Cain goes elsewhere? The Royals could bring back a pretty good haul for him. 27 w/ 4 yrs at 7.5/10/13/13 at the thinnest position in baseball..Seems like a Nats fit

1:05
Travis Sawchik: I don’t know what his market would be, but I’d explore it … plus  he’s accumulated a ton of mileage

1:05
Ben: Joc Pederson is currently projected for slightly more WAR than Chris Taylor. Which do you think will be more valuable in 2018?

1:06
Travis Sawchik: Taylor

1:06
Justin: This whole “Judge will definitely fall to pieces” projection means if he’s anything close to last year the Yankees are sitting pretty then, huh?

1:06
Travis Sawchik: 4-wins isn’t falling to pieces, but, yeah, regression is built in

1:07
Legeisc: Astros are going after a high end starter per their owner despite having 6 starters without options. If successful, is this the Astros saying reliever market is insane or that the owner realizes Hinch won’t actually use his re

1:07
Legeisc: Astros owner says Astros going for a high-end starter despite having 6 starters without options already. Are reliever prices insane or do the Astros not trust traditional relievers?

1:07
Travis Sawchik: Interesting! Also,  the RP market has thinned out a bit and has perhaps been overvalued this offseason

1:08
Jimmers: It’s really hard to see Judge as a 3 WAR player, with all those walks, that power and positive value on D and Baserunning. Can you elaborate?

1:09
Travis Sawchik: FG projects him as a 4-win player, and that’s conservative

1:09
Bruce: Giants sign Alex Avila. He platoons with Hundley at catcher. Posey moves to first and Belt to left field. Or am I crazy?

1:10
Travis Sawchik: I like Avila, but I wouldn’t move Posey off catcher … lot of his value is tied to his glove, still

1:10
Jimmy: Who is the real Greg Bird?  The one <.200 ave or the post season verison?

1:10
Travis Sawchik: The one we saw at the end of the season. If he can stay on the field and avoid becoming the next Nick Johnson, he’s a special bat

1:10
Travis Sawchik: Thanks for the questions everyone!

1:10
Travis Sawchik: I will be back next week.

1:10
Travis Sawchik: Until then, be good and do good





A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.

2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
rosen380
6 years ago

RE: Pujols vs Beltre
If we go with the JAWS model, then for Beltre to catch up to Pujols he needs 17.4 more rWAR [on top of anything further that Pujols produces].

Granted with four years left, if he tries to stick around to collect that paycheck, I guess Pujols might be likely to put up some pretty decently negative WAR for the rest of his career.

STEAMER has him at -0.1 and figuring -0.75 per year for the rest of his deal, that would be -4.9 wins, so then Beltre would just need 12.5. Using STEAMER and -0.75 wins per year for 2019 onward, here is what I get:

2017 80.5 vs 71.2
2018 80.5 vs 73.1
2019 80.0 vs 74.6
2020 79.2 vs 75.8
2021 78.1 vs 76.6
2022 78.1 vs 77.0
2023 78.1 vs 77.0
2024 78.1 vs 76.6
2025 78.1 vs 75.9

So, this model would suggest Beltre never catches up.