2018 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
San Diego hitters recorded the lowest collective WAR figure in the majors last year, compiling just seven wins as a group, or about 26 fewer than the Houston Astros’ cohort. This offseason, meanwhile, has seen the departure of Yangervis Solarte — who, for whatever his shortcomings, has nevertheless been the club’s most productive position player over the last three years. This would appear to spell trouble for erstwhile managing editor Dave Cameron and his new colleagues.

And yet, not that. A brief examination of the depth-chart image below reveals a Starting Eight that projects as profoundly average. And while that might not be regarded as welcome news for some clubs, it represents a promising development for the young Padres. There isn’t anything in the way of star-level power here — Manuel Margot (585 PA, 3.2 zWAR) and Wil Myers (648, 3.2) both profile more as above-average regulars than clear All-Stars — but there is also little in the way of glaring weakness.

Of some interest is how the team handles second base. Cory Spangenberg (527, 1.3) earns the top forecast of the players likely to receive time there, but Carlos Asuaje (609, 1.2) started about half the club’s games at second last season. Prospect Luis Urias (558, 1.8), meanwhile, has a better WAR forecast than either of them.

Pitchers
While the offense marches towards competence, the staff remains an area of real concern. ZiPS calls for zero of San Diego’s pitchers to reach the two-win threshold in 2018. Dinelson Lamet (149.1 IP, 1.9 zWAR) is the closest to that mark. He appears ready to serve as the club’s most effective starter, if not the nominal ace. Besides Lamet, only Luis Perdomo (148.2, 1.0) and Clayton Richard (148.0, 0.9) seem assured of a rotation spot. Bryan Mitchell (90.1, 1.2) is a deserving candidate by the numbers, too. Among the possible options for the fifth-starter role, Jordan Lyles (96.1, 0.3) earns the top projection.

One area in which the Padres measure up to any number of clubs is at the back of their bullpen. Formerly just a soft-tossing starter, lefty Brad Hand (77.0 IP, 74 ERA-, 1.6 zWAR) has emerged as legitimate relief ace. Kirby Yates (58.0, 86, 0.7) is the best of the rest in the bullpen, although a healthy Carter Capps (36.2, 83, 0.4) would probably deserve that title, too.

Bench/Prospects
The aforementioned Luis Urias receives the top projection among the Padres field players both (a) omitted from the depth-chart image below and (b) remain rookie-eligible in 2018. Franchy Cordero (558, 1.5) receives the second-best forecast by both criteria. Jeff Sullivan argued earlier this week that Cordero is the most exciting player on the team.

There appear to be very few diamonds in the rough that is San Diego’s collection of pitching currently. Joey Lucchesi (117.1 IP, 106 ERA-, 0.9 zWAR) recorded the majority of his innings last season as a 24-year-old at High-A. He receives the organization’s sixth-best WAR projection among pitchers. Phil Maton (64.0, 88, 0.7) is comparable by the numbers to a number of the Padres’ other bullpen options.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Padres, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.