Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 2/2/18

February 2, 2018

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:02	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:02	Forrest: How is everybody’s morning/afternoon?

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Fine

9:03	Craiggers: With the way things are going, do the owners lean on Glass or Fowler to give Hosmer, and by Hosmer I mean Boras, at least some of what he wants?

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hosmer is eventually going to sign for at least seven years and $140 million. He is going to be fine

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hosmer will be fine. Yu Darvish will be fine. J.D. Martinez will be fine

9:06

RK: What is the typical payout structure of a draft bonus? I’m assuming Appel didn’t leave any money on the table since it wasn’t mentioned in any of the articles, but I remember reading an elongated structure might have been what was keeping Bubba Starling in baseball a year or so ago. Does it differ based on HS/College is are they all usually about x years?

9:07

Jeff Sullivan: So I took a couple minutes to Google and I couldn’t find anything worthwhile. I’ve always just figured the bonuses came up front, but you could always negotiate an elongated payout structure if desired. I would imagine certain players have gone that route, while most others want the money right away

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Just found an ESPN link from 2011 saying that the Bubba Starling $7.5m signing bonus was to be paid out over three years

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I cannot tell you how common that is

9:09	Lunar verLander: Two weeks ago, I said you could turn the hot stove back on whenever you’d like, and you said “maybe next Wednesday or Thursday”…which is when the Brewers traded for Yelich and signed Cain…are you a wizard?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: The offseason is almost over! Teams need to get done the things they’ve wanted to do. Nothing helps a wizard more than a deadline

9:09	Roog: Do the Rangers finally cave & give Joey Bats a 3 year deal? Is it inevitable that they sign him?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: A three-year deal?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: For Jose Bautista?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: For a 37-year-old Jose Bautista?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Coming off an 80 wRC+?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I like the idea of giving Bautista one more shot, myself, but three years would be a waste

9:11

Jack: Should MLB change the requirements for a player to be eligible for free agency? It seems wrong that a guy like Josh Donaldson won’t be eligible to test free agency until he’s 33 next year, and even if he has yet another MVP-caliber season, his age is probably really going to hurt him in free agency. I believe the NHL has a system where once players hit a certain age (I wanna say it’s 27 but I’m not 100% certain on that), they can become an unrestricted free agent at the expiry of their contract regardless of how much service time they have. What if MLB had a system where, say, once players were 30, they would be eligible for free agency even if they don’t yet have six years of service time?

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine the union is going to offer a number of different suggestions moving forward, and something like this will probably be one of them. Of course, many of the best players will be unaffected, since the best players reach the majors sooner rather than later almost all of the time, but if you can help any number of big-leaguers get their money, you have to give it a shot

9:13	Greg: Besides the guys they are paying to play on other teams, the Padres have a payroll of $55M and $20M of that is tied up in the vets they inexplicably brought in (Headley and Galvis).

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Well, Headley is getting paid because the Padres wanted Bryan Mitchell. And Galvis is getting paid because did you see what their options were at shortstop?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’s also worth noting that the Padres are rumored to be trying to give maybe the biggest free-agent contract of the winter

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: But, I mean, bad and rebuilding teams tend not to spend much on the rosters. They’re not alone here

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: How often did Dave advocate for bad teams buying prospects, when he was a writer here? That would probably be a Hosmer fallback plan

9:16

Ross: If the Dodgers’ plan is to release Matt Kemp if they can’t trade him, shouldn’t they do that pretty soon? Kemp’s done a lot for that franchise, and holding on to him all offseason then cutting him at the last minute right before spring training and not leaving him much time to find a new team would be a pretty shitty thing to do to him, no?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, even if Kemp were a free agent all along, he still wouldn’t have a deal

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: The market right now is full of available decent hitters with basically zero defensive value

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I expect that the Dodgers will shortly find a team to assume Kemp’s salary. At least, much of it, packaged along with a young player of value

9:18	Bork: The MLB is discussing bringing back bullpen carts. To me this is a little old fashioned. What would you do to make the journey from bullpen to mound more modern?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to be totally honest with you — I have never once thought that relievers took too long to get to the mound from the bullpen

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: What a weird idea this is

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: But then, if I remember correctly, this was a union proposal! Which means it’s something the players do care about

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe relievers don’t like to jog

9:20	Kev: There were talks last year about Jose Abreu being traded, but it never happened due to lack of market for the position. Do you see him getting traded this season?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I’m actually leaning no, now. It depends on how well Abreu produces, but I think the White Sox put a lot of value on his leadership

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Disclosure: just before this chat, Ben Lindbergh and I were podcasting with Jason Benetti

9:21	HappyFunBall: So this is basically SullivanGraphs now right? If you decide to go Seattle Mariners all day every day, who’s left to stop you? Carson?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I’d like to see him try

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: But I also have zero desire to actually write about the Mariners very much. One can only write so much about James Paxton

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I will say that new hire decisions will be announced in the nearer-term future. The FG staff will be filled out, and I’m pretty excited about the names I’ve been told

9:22	CamdenWarehouse: Jeff, I think I speak for many of us when I tell you I really want to give you a hug and say “Please don’t leave us.”

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Dave was never going to leave until the Padres offered him an opportunity no one knew existed. I don’t think there’s going to be a second one of those

9:24	Tom: How is Buster Posey slated to have a career high DRS according to Steamer (at age 31 nonetheless)

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing our depth charts don’t give him enough time at first base, relatively to his history. Can adjust

9:24	Bud Black: Am I imagining things, or do I actually have like 8 legit MLB starting pitchers available to me?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: You had eight last season, and only Chatwood left

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: The bigger issue for the Rockies is that only Gray is particularly good

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: But then, he is kind of super good

9:27	GP: What’s the best proposal you’ve heard for a system that pays young players reasonably but doesn’t screw small market teams?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty sure you basically have to increase revenue sharing. Don’t know what the alternative would be

9:27	Zock Jr.: Hey, Jeff! You weren’t interviewing to go work for the Mariners, right? Right? We can’t lose you too. Please comfort us!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: They already turned me down a decade ago. Not going to try that one again

9:28	Brett W: Among starting pitchers still available, Steamer says Lance Lynn’s expected 2018 WAR is behind not only Darvish, Arrieta, and Cobb but also Garcia, Anderson, Nolasco, Lackey, and Jimenez. Is Lance Lynn being overrated by analysts, or is Steamer missing something?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Lynn has always maintained low ERAs, and despite the missing 2016, he did just make 33 starts. Steamer is far from perfect

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: That being said, Lynn is also coming off a career-worst K-BB%, and his ERA was a function of a .244 BABIP. He had a lousy second half and he can’t pitch to lefties. I wouldn’t be interested in him at his rumored prices

9:31	Sterling Malory Chris Archer: So during the next CBA, player salary’s are going to change somehow. Should they just shorten the amount of years of control? 2 club years then 2 club years seem more fair than the 3/3 they have going.

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: Lots of different things to try to change, but of course it all comes down to offsetting concessions. Less service time for FA would be an achievement. Higher minimum wages would be an achievement. Re-worked arbitration, or changes to the definition of a service year, would also be helpful

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: But the union has dug itself into a hole. The owners aren’t going to give money back for nothing

9:32	steeev: Hi Jeff. Any chance you guys will interview Tommy Pham for print or podcast before the start of the season? Given his interest in analytics–including incorporating them into his training–he seems like an ideal interview for FG.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of surprised we haven’t tried yet. I’m going to make a note

9:34	Tim: In your opinion what is the best and worst team name in baseball? I’d say Oakland Athletics is the worst. No one ever even calls them the Athletics because it just doesn’t sound good, they’re just the A’s. And I’d say Pittsburgh Pirates is the best.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: No matter what I do here this is probably going to get me in trouble

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Frankly, I hate having teams named after socks

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: It’s ridiculous when you think about it

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Meanwhile, I’m fond of the Marlins

9:38	Ari: How and when will Franchy Cordero find playing time at Petco Park?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not the hardest thing in the world to manage a four-man outfield rotation. And someone could get hurt, or Renfroe could underperform

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: If Cordero deserves playing time, he’ll get it

9:39

Scott: I’m getting pretty annoyed at the lack of free agent signings. Should I be blaming the owners/front offices for being greedy, or the players for negotiating a bad CBA? Also, the NBA guarantees the players a certain % of revenue (I think close to a 50-50 split). The players should really bargain hard for something similar.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: There’s blame to go all around, and don’t let the agents out of your sights. Agents haven’t kept up, by and large, with the changing game

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: They’re just not very good at negotiating realistically with teams, how they’re presently operating

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I’d blame front offices the least — every single one of them wants the team to get better. Owners have far more to do with it

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not the Dodgers’ front office’s fault they’re trying to stay under the threshold. That’s on ownership

9:42	MD: What’s your outlook on Sonny Gray for 2018? Any underlying numbers for homer suppression? That seemed to be his biggest struggle after coming to NY

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: He’s a fundamentally different pitcher than he used to be, when he was known for his dynamite curveball. I like him fine as a No. 2 starter. I wouldn’t expect him to be an ace

9:44	Natsfan: Who is the most average player who gets regular playing time in your mind?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Asdrubal Cabrera

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Or, younger, Kolten Wong

9:45	Matt: You ever think it’d be easier to pick up chicks if you changed your name to Jeff Sullicoupconvertible?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: My hair wouldn’t look good flapping in the wind

9:45	BJOGC: Is carson now the longest tenured Fangraphs employee? besides appelman

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Correct

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Carson and I now somehow have editorial seniority

9:46	SalYellon: Are you leaving FanGraphs within, let’s say, the next 72 hours

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I’ll leave my computer, if that counts

9:47	Mike: Going to Redwoods National Park & Boardman Scenic Center next week. Ever been? Any tips? Anywhere to check out in surrounding area?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: You’ll be vaguely close-ish to Mt. Shasta and the Trinity Alps. Absolutely spectacular areas

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t been to Redwood since I was a child

9:48	Matt: Is MLB’s fantastic stretch of labor peace finally coming to an end?

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: Depends on how you define labor peace. The peace is already broken, in that the players are collectively pissed off. But I still don’t see a strike materializing in the short- or medium-term future. Everyone has too much money to make, and, hopefully, owners are slightly more generous in upcoming negotiations, as they realize how good they’ve had it

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Now, saying that out loud, I sound extraordinarily naive

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: But here’s hoping!

9:49	Forrest: I’d say with Hosmer’s age a long term deal is going to be in the works despite his inconsistency

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: A long-term deal is already in the works. He gets seven years if he wants it. Boras is holding out for eight

9:50	Bleachers: What are the chances the Dodgers and/or Yankees are able to move pieces to clear cap…er… luxury tax space for Darvish?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers could do it today if they wanted. It’s harder for the Yankees, with Ellsbury’s no-trade clause

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I continue to believe the Dodgers will make this happen

9:51	Chris O’Day: If Ariel Miranda can lower the homerun rate (2.1 per 9 in 2017) how good can he become?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Why, then he could be a No. 6, instead of a No. 7

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Last season: 122 ERA-, 123 xFIP-

9:52	Erik: The Marlins ranked 28th in attendance last year with an average of 20,345 people per game. How much lower will that number be this year? Why would anyone besides family and friends of players go to any Marlins games this year?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t count out the number of people who just enjoy getting to go to a baseball game

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The recent Astros bottomed out at 19,849

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, that’s tickets sold, not actual attendance. But it’s fun to go to the ballpark, even if the local team is bad

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball is fun if you can divorce yourself from success-based validation

9:54	Kristen: Re: your column yesterday, would LAD really include someone like Yadier Alvarez in the deal if say TEX agreed to take on Kemp? We need SP prospects like craaazy.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how the Dodgers view Alvarez specifically, but his value has definitely dropped from last offseason. They know the value of being able to drop Kemp’s salary

9:56	Hal: Who’s the guy you’re most surprised is still unsigned?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Lucroy, just because there aren’t many catchers around. But Darvish also should’ve been signed months ago. He’s only out there because of the Dodgers’ luxury-tax concerns

9:58	Brett: How much sense do you think it would make for the Brewers to see if they could try to bring Lucroy back on a one-year deal? He’s probably better than Vogt, right?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if things wound up going here, although I get why they figure Pina/Vogt is just fine, with Bandy at No. 3

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: There’s not a long-term catcher in the bunch, but Lucroy isn’t that guy anymore, either

9:59	LARRY B: Would you pick the Red Sox or the field to sign JD?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox