2019 ZiPS Projections – Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies.

Batters

Amusingly, Colorado’s lack of ambition this offseason may be counteracting their inability to evaluate their offensive talent. The team signed Daniel Murphy to a contract that is eminently reasonable for a player who is projected to be something like a league-average first baseman over the next two years, but has made no other significant moves. The 1.7 WAR projection for Murphy is only over 118 games, reflecting that there is some risk given that injuries limited him to just 91 games in 2018; he’ll turn 34 in April. Murphy obviously isn’t Paul Goldschmidt, but after the allowing the position to act as an Ian Desmond vanity project, leading to a -0.7 WAR and an 81 wRC+ from their starting first baseman, the Rockies should enjoy a larger improvement than most teams would have from signing him.

Speaking of one of the remaining black holes on offense, it appears that Desmond will primarily play center field in 2019, with Charlie Blackmon shifting to left. With the assumption that one is unaware of what a sunk cost is, ZiPS thinks center field is the least-bad place to play Desmond; he wasn’t really a good center fielder in his year in Texas, but he also didn’t see a relative improvement in his defensive numbers when he moved to the easy end of the defensive spectrum. Without bringing dreams of Bryce Harper, who would be an amazing fit at Coors, to fruition, I’d likely go with an outfield of Blackmon, Raimel Tapia, and David Dahl, with Mike Tauchman and Yonathan Daza as the reserves. Or perhaps Colorado could go after Adam Jones.

Like the Rays, the Rockies have a lot of interesting parts on offense, but unlike the Rays, they show very little inclination to let those players prove themselves or the creativity to find openings for their minor league talent. The team essentially wasted an entire year of the careers of Tapia and Ryan McMahon, giving them occasional playing time, and doing so with all the enthusiasm of a 12-year-old being forced to apologize to a younger sibling. I think Garrett Hampson is more likely to get playing time at second than the depth chart does and that he will be an adequate replacement for DJ LeMahieu there, if a minor downgrade.

Pitchers

I find it amazing that a team that regularly commits what could almost be described as roster construction malpractice on offense can be so brilliant at putting together a pitching rotation. The Rockies may have figured out how to find pitchers who can succeed in Coors Field, though Jon Gray’s struggles vs. his peripherals made for a confusing 2018. Going into last season, ZiPS thought that all five projected starters would be league-average or better and that’s pretty much what happened, though Kyle Freeland crushed his preseason projections to put up a legitimate Cy Young-esque season. ZiPS isn’t sold on Freeland being that good, but it is sold on German Marquez being a legitimate ace pitcher.

Just for reference, Marquez’s 4.1 WAR projection ranks sixth among the starting pitchers who have received their official ZiPS projections for 2019. Not every team has received theirs, of course, but of the top 25 pitchers by WAR last season, only four are on teams that have not had their ZiPS post yet (Luis Severino, Max Scherzer, Freeland, and Jose Berrios).

ZiPS is even optimistic about bounce back seasons from the team’s disappointing, pricey reliever trio of Wade Davis, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw. Combined, these three will make $35 million in 2019, but only combined for 0.4 WAR in 2018. The Rockies will take the extra projected win.

Bench and Prospects

A lot of the depth has faded from the system due to graduations and some disappointments, and when all is said and done, ZiPS will likely rank Colorado’s farm system in the 15-20 range. We probably can’t count on Jeff Hoffman at this point, but ZiPS still sorta believes he can be a decent No. 3 or 4 starter, and sees two of the team’s pitching prospects — Peter Lambert and Rico Garcia, the former being far more prized among prospect watchers — as being able to contribute soon. None of the pitchers otherwise really excite ZiPS; Riley Pint was injured and is prized for his stuff rather than his performance, and Ryan Castellani was terrible in Double-A.

ZiPS is still quite confident about Brendan Rodgers, even if the Rockies feel no urgency in getting him into the majors. Personally, I’d be shopping Trevor Story for a real hitter in the outfield and just sticking Rodgers at short, but that’s a little aggressive for a front office that appears to place more value on veteran experience than practically any team in baseball. ZiPS was actually fairly unimpressed with the seasons of Colton Welker and Tyler Nevin. The Hangar (home of the Lancaster JetHawks) has the second-highest overall park factor in the minor leagues over the last three years, with a run multiplier (rather than factor, so the effect’s already halved) of 1.18, behind only Security Service Field of the now-defunct Colorado Springs Sky Sox (1.25). The park’s 1.36 home run multiplier was also second in the minors, behind only Greensboro (1.41).

In other words, ZiPS expects a high-end offensive prospect to absolutely eviscerate opposing pitchers in Lancaster, as Rodgers did (.387/.407/.671). Garrett Hampson had an .849 OPS there and he’s known more for his defense than his offense. A.J. Reed had nearly a 1.100 OPS there!

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nolan Arenado R 28 3B 154 589 100 170 39 4 36 118 63 118 2 3
Trevor Story R 26 SS 146 549 81 144 34 5 33 99 48 180 20 4
Charlie Blackmon L 32 LF 147 593 112 177 32 7 29 77 52 125 12 7
Brendan Rodgers R 22 SS 117 460 60 130 27 3 17 62 25 99 10 4
Garrett Hampson R 24 2B 126 494 66 139 23 8 8 48 47 95 32 7
Mike Tauchman L 28 CF 132 459 66 129 24 6 12 56 45 94 14 10
Daniel Murphy L 34 1B 118 438 64 138 32 2 17 75 34 54 3 1
Raimel Tapia L 25 CF 141 516 70 151 31 8 10 58 28 103 19 6
David Dahl L 25 LF 115 418 57 114 23 4 24 76 29 124 11 5
Ryan McMahon L 24 3B 144 461 58 123 27 4 16 62 39 144 7 3
Josh Fuentes R 26 3B 133 511 62 141 29 7 13 63 20 113 3 5
Brett Nicholas L 30 C 109 404 50 107 24 1 12 57 26 88 1 2
Tony Wolters L 27 C 77 222 27 50 9 3 3 27 27 55 2 1
Daniel Castro R 26 SS 109 371 39 101 18 1 4 35 17 45 2 1
Chris Iannetta R 36 C 91 264 30 59 13 0 10 34 40 81 0 0
Peter Mooney L 28 SS 97 330 38 84 15 2 5 33 30 53 2 2
Carlos Gonzalez L 33 RF 128 463 66 119 28 2 19 64 40 118 4 1
Ian Desmond R 33 CF 139 512 73 130 21 4 17 76 42 137 18 5
Patrick Valaika R 26 2B 131 380 44 88 20 2 14 48 21 106 4 3
Yonathan Daza R 25 CF 107 437 50 127 23 4 3 40 16 81 9 10
Mark Reynolds R 35 1B 113 340 43 82 15 1 17 56 39 112 1 1
Dom Nunez L 24 C 98 348 41 74 12 1 8 34 41 94 7 4
Brian Serven R 24 C 75 271 31 63 14 2 6 26 18 75 1 4
Tom Murphy R 28 C 94 325 40 73 20 3 14 50 20 125 3 2
Jan Vazquez B 28 C 61 183 22 42 8 1 4 17 19 57 1 2
Noel Cuevas R 27 RF 119 389 46 106 17 5 8 41 19 80 8 6
Alan Trejo R 23 SS 113 448 48 107 21 3 8 43 23 128 4 8
Chris Rabago R 26 C 77 266 28 60 12 3 3 22 21 72 9 4
Elliot Soto R 29 SS 80 249 27 61 9 2 1 20 25 51 3 2
Roberto Ramos L 24 1B 117 440 56 105 21 2 17 53 39 166 4 2
Shawn O’Malley R 31 2B 73 215 25 55 8 2 3 21 15 48 5 3
Bret Boswell L 24 3B 118 476 60 111 15 5 18 56 26 173 6 5
Vince Fernandez L 23 LF 115 434 56 92 17 4 15 50 47 200 8 8
Derrik Gibson R 29 2B 86 302 35 73 11 6 4 28 27 74 6 3
Michael Saunders L 32 RF 94 321 42 77 18 3 9 39 34 87 2 2
Drew Butera R 35 C 62 143 15 33 7 1 3 19 11 35 0 0
Matt Holliday R 39 LF 78 256 31 63 13 0 9 36 34 68 0 0
Colton Welker R 21 3B 116 465 57 122 23 1 10 50 32 129 4 5
Tyler Nevin R 22 1B 106 418 50 112 19 2 9 42 29 106 6 6
Stephen Cardullo R 31 LF 95 291 35 72 16 3 6 32 23 61 3 1
Brian Mundell R 25 1B 127 474 58 124 27 1 8 45 44 94 3 4
Drew Weeks R 26 LF 107 403 47 95 15 3 10 42 28 114 9 8
Sam Hilliard L 25 RF 123 472 54 109 16 4 10 44 38 179 20 14

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Nolan Arenado 663 .289 .356 .552 123 .263 .308 7.4 9 4.5 Ron Cey
Trevor Story 605 .262 .326 .523 108 .260 .330 6.5 1 3.3 Frankie Crosetti
Charlie Blackmon 660 .298 .363 .523 119 .224 .337 7.3 1 3.0 Larry Herndon
Brendan Rodgers 500 .283 .331 .465 97 .183 .328 5.8 2 2.0 Zoilo Versalles
Garrett Hampson 552 .281 .343 .409 88 .128 .335 5.7 5 1.9 Willie Harris
Mike Tauchman 513 .281 .344 .438 95 .157 .331 5.5 5 1.7 Brian McRae
Daniel Murphy 479 .315 .365 .514 117 .199 .330 7.4 -1 1.7 Al Oliver
Raimel Tapia 554 .293 .330 .442 92 .149 .350 5.7 1 1.5 Steve Finley
David Dahl 450 .273 .321 .519 106 .246 .333 6.2 2 1.4 Cody Ross
Ryan McMahon 507 .267 .325 .447 91 .180 .355 5.4 3 1.3 Jeff Blauser
Josh Fuentes 546 .276 .311 .436 85 .160 .332 4.9 5 1.1 Robb Quinlan
Brett Nicholas 436 .265 .313 .418 81 .153 .313 4.7 -2 0.7 Ed Ott
Tony Wolters 255 .225 .319 .333 64 .108 .287 3.7 6 0.5 Doug Newstrom
Daniel Castro 395 .272 .304 .358 66 .086 .301 4.0 7 0.5 David Milstien
Chris Iannetta 311 .223 .332 .386 80 .163 .283 4.5 -3 0.3 Rick Dempsey
Peter Mooney 368 .255 .319 .358 70 .103 .290 4.1 2 0.3 John Tamargo
Carlos Gonzalez 507 .257 .316 .449 89 .192 .307 5.2 -1 0.3 Troy O’Leary
Ian Desmond 563 .254 .315 .410 80 .156 .316 4.8 -6 0.2 Doug Clark
Patrick Valaika 410 .232 .272 .405 67 .174 .285 3.8 6 0.2 Scott White
Yonathan Daza 462 .291 .319 .382 75 .092 .351 4.3 2 0.2 Aaron Mathews
Mark Reynolds 383 .241 .321 .441 89 .200 .308 5.0 -1 0.1 Larry Parrish
Dom Nunez 397 .213 .299 .322 56 .109 .268 3.3 5 0.0 Brian Moon
Brian Serven 302 .232 .286 .365 62 .133 .300 3.4 3 0.0 Joe Depastino
Tom Murphy 349 .225 .275 .434 74 .209 .317 4.1 -3 0.0 Jayhawk Owens
Jan Vazquez 211 .230 .317 .350 68 .120 .311 3.7 -1 0.0 Dave Parrish
Noel Cuevas 416 .272 .312 .404 78 .131 .326 4.6 4 0.0 Chad Mottola
Alan Trejo 484 .239 .281 .353 58 .114 .317 3.2 9 0.0 Juan Delgado
Chris Rabago 295 .226 .288 .327 54 .102 .298 3.3 3 -0.1 Luis Taveras
Elliot Soto 281 .245 .314 .309 58 .064 .305 3.4 2 -0.1 Frank Kellner
Roberto Ramos 486 .239 .305 .411 78 .173 .342 4.5 3 -0.2 Rick Sofield
Shawn O’Malley 240 .256 .308 .353 66 .098 .317 3.9 0 -0.2 Chico Ruiz
Bret Boswell 513 .233 .277 .399 67 .166 .326 3.8 2 -0.3 Ray Thoma
Vince Fernandez 488 .212 .296 .373 67 .161 .352 3.6 8 -0.3 Steve Howard
Derrik Gibson 335 .242 .306 .358 66 .116 .308 3.9 -2 -0.4 Zach Sorensen
Michael Saunders 358 .240 .316 .399 78 .159 .302 4.4 -2 -0.4 Dann Howitt
Drew Butera 157 .231 .288 .357 61 .126 .286 3.6 -4 -0.5 Joe Oliver
Matt Holliday 295 .246 .336 .402 84 .156 .302 4.8 -7 -0.5 Eddie Williams
Colton Welker 506 .262 .310 .381 72 .118 .344 4.2 -4 -0.5 Aurelio Rodriguez
Tyler Nevin 453 .268 .318 .388 76 .120 .340 4.4 0 -0.6 Wes Bankston
Stephen Cardullo 320 .247 .304 .385 72 .137 .295 4.2 -3 -0.7 Mike McCain
Brian Mundell 528 .262 .326 .373 75 .112 .312 4.3 -4 -1.0 Tim McWilliam
Drew Weeks 440 .236 .290 .362 63 .127 .305 3.5 -6 -1.7 Choo Freeman
Sam Hilliard 517 .231 .288 .345 58 .114 .350 3.3 0 -1.7 Jalal Leach

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
German Marquez R 24 15 8 3.82 33 33 190.7 182 81 26 52 208
Jon Gray R 27 12 8 4.40 32 32 174.0 176 85 23 55 176
Kyle Freeland L 26 13 10 4.54 32 31 180.3 191 91 25 63 141
Antonio Senzatela R 24 10 7 4.47 35 23 137.0 141 68 18 47 112
Tyler Anderson L 29 8 7 4.92 28 27 146.3 152 80 26 49 129
Chi Chi Gonzalez R 27 9 7 4.84 21 19 102.3 114 55 10 44 57
Jeff Hoffman R 26 8 7 5.05 29 24 123.0 132 69 17 55 103
Rico Garcia R 25 10 9 5.30 25 23 130.7 151 77 21 50 99
Peter Lambert R 22 9 9 5.37 27 27 137.3 165 82 25 34 89
Scott Oberg R 29 5 3 3.74 67 0 65.0 62 27 6 22 60
Wade Davis R 33 5 3 3.72 61 0 55.7 44 23 7 27 70
Chad Bettis R 30 5 5 5.36 26 22 122.7 138 73 20 46 84
Seung-hwan Oh R 36 5 3 4.03 64 0 58.0 55 26 10 15 61
D.J. Johnson R 29 4 3 4.03 52 0 60.3 57 27 6 28 62
Sam Howard L 26 6 7 5.77 25 22 107.7 126 69 20 45 80
Chris Rusin L 32 3 2 4.55 53 0 63.3 66 32 8 22 49
Heath Holder R 26 5 4 4.85 46 2 72.3 72 39 9 42 72
Bryan Shaw R 31 5 4 4.60 66 0 60.7 62 31 8 26 55
Yency Almonte R 25 6 6 5.68 28 17 90.3 104 57 16 42 68
Sean Nolin L 29 4 4 5.51 24 12 63.7 70 39 11 31 51
Jake McGee L 32 3 2 4.59 57 0 49.0 50 25 8 15 46
Carlos Estevez R 26 4 3 4.59 51 0 49.0 48 25 7 20 49
Santiago Casilla R 38 2 2 4.83 41 0 41.0 40 22 5 22 35
Alec Asher R 27 5 6 5.90 25 17 100.7 123 66 20 35 58
Matt Pierpont R 28 4 3 4.94 47 0 54.7 57 30 8 23 51
Reid Humphreys R 24 2 2 4.89 45 0 38.7 37 21 6 22 40
Mitch Horacek L 27 3 3 5.07 47 0 55.0 56 31 8 33 53
Austin House R 28 3 3 5.29 41 0 49.3 55 29 6 25 33
Mike Dunn L 34 2 2 5.40 45 0 33.3 33 20 5 22 32
Brett Oberholtzer L 29 6 8 6.26 23 21 113.7 145 79 24 45 70
Scott McGough R 29 4 5 5.54 41 1 65.0 72 40 13 27 58
Logan Cozart R 26 5 6 5.52 51 0 58.7 66 36 9 27 43
Rayan Gonzalez R 28 1 1 6.12 27 0 25.0 28 17 4 16 18
Jairo Diaz R 28 2 2 5.88 34 0 33.7 35 22 4 25 28
Ryan Castellani R 23 7 10 6.34 26 26 126.3 155 89 22 70 75
Harrison Musgrave L 27 5 6 6.26 32 12 83.3 97 58 19 37 62
Evan Grills L 27 5 6 6.44 19 16 88.0 113 63 22 24 57
Shane Broyles R 27 2 2 5.71 43 0 52.0 53 33 10 33 57
Ben Bowden L 24 4 4 5.79 48 0 46.7 47 30 9 33 51
Jesus Tinoco R 24 8 11 6.41 25 25 125.0 155 89 29 52 89
David Holmberg L 27 6 8 6.45 26 18 106.0 134 76 24 42 59
Keith Hessler L 30 2 3 5.92 45 0 51.7 56 34 9 33 46
Mason Melotakis L 28 2 2 6.62 29 0 34.0 41 25 8 20 24
Jordan Foley R 25 3 4 6.34 36 2 55.3 60 39 10 45 51
David Holman R 29 4 5 6.99 21 7 64.3 85 50 15 27 30
Zach Jemiola R 25 4 6 7.33 16 16 84.7 115 69 21 39 37

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
German Marquez 802 9.82 2.45 1.23 .307 130 77 3.68 4.5 Roy Oswalt
Jon Gray 748 9.10 2.84 1.19 .314 109 92 3.91 2.9 Jeff Weaver
Kyle Freeland 789 7.04 3.14 1.25 .301 106 95 4.57 2.7 Curt Simmons
Antonio Senzatela 594 7.36 3.09 1.18 .299 107 93 4.36 2.0 Milt Pappas
Tyler Anderson 633 7.93 3.01 1.60 .296 98 103 4.78 1.7 Jim Abbott
Chi Chi Gonzalez 462 5.01 3.87 0.88 .301 99 101 4.74 1.3 Don Welchel
Jeff Hoffman 552 7.54 4.02 1.24 .309 95 105 4.74 1.2 Steve Arlin
Rico Garcia 592 6.82 3.44 1.45 .315 90 111 5.08 1.0 Mike LaCoss
Peter Lambert 608 5.83 2.23 1.64 .310 89 112 5.14 1.0 Carlos Silva
Scott Oberg 277 8.31 3.05 0.83 .301 128 78 3.66 0.9 Kent Tekulve
Wade Davis 237 11.32 4.37 1.13 .282 129 77 3.83 0.9 Jason Isringhausen
Chad Bettis 547 6.16 3.38 1.47 .301 90 112 5.15 0.9 Bennie Daniels
Seung-hwan Oh 243 9.47 2.33 1.55 .292 123 81 4.22 0.8 Jeff Reardon
D.J. Johnson 265 9.25 4.18 0.90 .307 119 84 3.93 0.6 Jeff Cornell
Sam Howard 492 6.69 3.76 1.67 .311 83 120 5.50 0.4 Jake Chapman
Chris Rusin 275 6.96 3.13 1.14 .299 106 95 4.38 0.3 Billy Hoeft
Heath Holder 331 8.96 5.23 1.12 .310 99 101 4.73 0.3 Alan Mills
Bryan Shaw 267 8.16 3.86 1.19 .305 104 96 4.39 0.3 Dwight Bernard
Yency Almonte 415 6.77 4.18 1.59 .310 84 118 5.51 0.3 Sean White
Sean Nolin 290 7.21 4.38 1.55 .304 87 115 5.40 0.3 Mike Kekich
Jake McGee 211 8.45 2.76 1.47 .300 105 96 4.44 0.2 Brian Shouse
Carlos Estevez 215 9.00 3.67 1.29 .301 105 96 4.42 0.2 Gerry Hannahs
Santiago Casilla 186 7.68 4.83 1.10 .292 103 97 4.93 0.2 Ted Abernathy
Alec Asher 459 5.19 3.13 1.79 .304 81 123 5.83 0.1 Pat Ahearne
Matt Pierpont 243 8.40 3.79 1.32 .310 97 103 4.61 0.1 Mike Gardner
Reid Humphreys 174 9.31 5.12 1.40 .298 98 102 4.96 0.1 Anthony Chavez
Mitch Horacek 253 8.67 5.40 1.31 .308 95 106 5.08 0.0 Bobby Sprowl
Austin House 227 6.02 4.56 1.09 .306 91 110 5.10 -0.1 Gary Wagner
Mike Dunn 154 8.64 5.94 1.35 .298 89 113 5.25 -0.1 Marshall Bridges
Brett Oberholtzer 527 5.54 3.56 1.90 .316 77 130 5.98 -0.2 Dave Otto
Scott McGough 292 8.03 3.74 1.80 .309 87 115 5.35 -0.2 Rob Marquez
Logan Cozart 267 6.60 4.14 1.38 .308 87 115 5.21 -0.2 Andy Nezelek
Rayan Gonzalez 118 6.48 5.76 1.44 .304 78 128 5.83 -0.3 Tom Dukes
Jairo Diaz 161 7.49 6.68 1.07 .304 82 123 5.44 -0.3 Newt Kimball
Ryan Castellani 601 5.34 4.99 1.57 .311 76 132 6.06 -0.3 Carlos Paredes
Harrison Musgrave 382 6.70 4.00 2.05 .300 77 131 6.10 -0.3 John Shea
Evan Grills 399 5.83 2.45 2.25 .313 74 134 6.09 -0.3 Randy Marshall
Shane Broyles 242 9.87 5.71 1.73 .309 84 119 5.53 -0.3 Mike MacDougal
Ben Bowden 220 9.84 6.36 1.74 .306 83 121 5.79 -0.3 Justin Lamber
Jesus Tinoco 579 6.41 3.74 2.09 .313 75 134 6.16 -0.3 David Pauley
David Holmberg 491 5.01 3.57 2.04 .306 74 134 6.34 -0.4 Omar Daal
Keith Hessler 243 8.01 5.75 1.57 .309 81 123 5.72 -0.4 Mark Watson
Mason Melotakis 162 6.35 5.29 2.12 .306 73 138 6.74 -0.5 Danny Young
Jordan Foley 271 8.30 7.32 1.63 .311 76 132 6.31 -0.5 Darin Moore
David Holman 303 4.20 3.78 2.10 .308 69 146 6.69 -0.7 Wes Wilkerson
Zach Jemiola 406 3.93 4.15 2.23 .309 65 153 7.06 -1.0 Brian Ahern

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Stark differential in playing time for Murphy versus Depth Charts — Is this purely injury / age-related rest or is there any callup or positional changing that would reduce Murphy’s Plate Appearances?