2019 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Angels

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels, allegedly of Anaheim.

Batters

You may have heard of Mike Trout; he’s pretty good. I’m amazed that Andrelton Simmons still seems to be underrated by the media and fans. When was the last time a shortstop with a crazily hyped glove was underrated? You’d almost think that he was Adam Everett or Mark Belanger or Omar Vizquel when in fact he’d have been worth just under eight WAR over the last two seasons if he were a league-average defensive shortstop. Simmons has already snuck into the Top 50 all-time by my colleague Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric, just a season from catching Dave Concepcion, Rafael Furcal, Vizquel, and the fringe Hall of Famer Rabbit Maranville. ZiPS projects Simmons to finish his career as the No. 14 shortstop by JAWS, just behind Derek Jeter and Barry Larkin, and just ahead of Bobby Wallace and Lou Boudreau. Andrelton is a superstar.

Albert Pujols is no longer a major league-caliber baseball player. He’s collected his 3000th hit and his 600th home run, but pretending that Pujols, at his best one of the greatest hitters of our generation, deserves a spot on the roster, let alone significant playing time, is becoming increasingly untenable. At some point, the Angels have to approach him with a plan to make as graceful and quick an exit from his playing career as they can manage, because in a world where the team was serious about fielding the best possible roster, they would be contemplating Pujols’ unconditional release. Even the creators of AfterMASH only needed two seasons to figure out they could only taint M*A*S*H’s legacy. The Angels have let three hitters go overseas this winter who project as more useful than Pujols (Jefry Marte, Jabari Blash, and the much-maligned Jose Miguel Fernandez).

I wouldn’t be quick to think of Shohei Ohtani’s offensive performance as fluky; in some ways, it’s just a natural power improvement from his previous year in Japan. ZiPS translated Ohtani’s final two seasons in Japan at .289/.356/.485, which looks a lot like his .285/.361/.564 with the Angels, with the power growth you hope to see from a talented young player with relatively few professional at-bats (he’s only at 1536 total now). ZiPS thinks he’ll have a lower average than in 2018, but he’s a real major league hitter.

Pitchers

If the Angels could keep all five of their starting pitchers healthy, the rotation would at least be acceptable. Problem is, essentially the entire rotation has an injury history, and many of its members have an extensive one. What’s frustrating about the Angels is that they have such highs in certain areas, but also several holes they’ve barely made a meaningful effort to go about fixing. ZiPS doesn’t see very high ceilings for any of the pitchers actually on the roster. If any team needed to go after Jake Arrieta last year or Dallas Keuchel this year, it’s the Angels. It would only take a few injuries for the Angels to have to turn to Dillon Peters or JC Ramirez (after he returns), which no contending team should be excited about.

Bench and Prospects

And here is why the Angels will fall short of the ZiPS seasonal simulation of the win total on their depth chart: the team’s plan B’s are absolutely atrocious around the field. The exceptions in the short-term are Jose Suarez and Griffin Canning, though I expect the Angels to give both a consolidation year at Triple-A (Suarez is still very young and Canning still has relatively little professional experience). Let’s put it this way: NRI Jarrett Parker is projected as the team’s fourth-best outfielder.

Things will get better. Jo Adell’s long-term projections are bananas, and the upside projections for Jahmai Jones and Brandon Marsh are at least…an apple? With a Brennon, two Brandons, and a Brendon in the projections, the Angels might as well sign Brennan Boesch to complete the set. The farm system has been steadily improving, but if the Angels want to stop wasting the prime of the best player they have ever had, and possibly will ever have, they really need to do better than dip a toe into free agency while they wait for the prospects to save them.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mike Trout R 27 CF 145 495 105 144 26 4 38 92 118 134 25 5
Andrelton Simmons R 29 SS 150 561 66 156 28 3 10 66 37 51 11 3
Shohei Ohtani L 24 DH 120 330 56 89 19 1 20 63 37 111 9 3
Justin Upton R 31 LF 141 518 76 122 23 1 28 85 61 180 9 3
Zack Cozart R 33 3B 90 339 48 84 17 3 11 36 31 62 2 1
Jabari Blash R 29 RF 112 352 55 76 16 1 22 59 46 147 5 4
Kole Calhoun L 31 RF 140 520 72 124 22 3 18 68 54 133 5 2
David Fletcher R 25 2B 128 520 57 132 25 4 5 44 25 65 10 3
Justin Bour L 31 1B 120 381 45 90 14 1 21 69 52 113 1 0
Jose Miguel Fernandez L 31 1B 114 416 51 108 19 0 12 47 30 52 2 2
Jonathan Lucroy R 33 C 120 413 43 102 18 2 7 46 32 69 1 0
Luis Rengifo B 22 SS 132 544 66 130 24 7 9 51 46 106 27 16
Jo Adell R 20 CF 99 408 50 89 19 3 16 52 23 140 11 4
Jarrett Parker L 30 LF 85 275 36 58 10 1 13 39 29 116 4 3
Wilfredo Tovar R 27 SS 116 399 40 95 16 1 5 32 22 62 14 7
Jefry Marte R 28 1B 106 319 41 73 15 1 14 45 25 77 4 2
Jose Briceno R 26 C 89 312 31 66 11 1 10 33 14 80 3 2
Zach Houchins R 26 3B 113 434 46 96 17 2 14 52 21 108 2 3
Kevan Smith R 31 C 84 289 30 73 12 0 5 31 15 49 0 0
Ben Revere L 31 LF 90 310 39 82 11 3 3 24 16 31 12 3
Taylor Ward R 25 3B 127 486 58 109 15 0 13 49 49 133 9 1
Ryan Schimpf L 31 2B 101 341 46 69 13 1 17 54 42 152 1 2
Cesar Puello R 28 LF 90 315 41 74 13 1 7 32 28 89 8 4
Dustin Garneau R 31 C 73 246 26 50 11 0 7 27 18 64 0 2
Julian Leon R 23 C 70 243 29 45 9 0 8 27 27 97 0 2
Tommy La Stella L 30 3B 104 195 21 47 9 0 3 19 19 34 0 1
Chris B. Young R 35 RF 75 181 24 38 8 1 7 19 18 50 2 1
Michael Hermosillo R 24 CF 104 382 46 82 16 3 10 38 31 125 11 8
Roberto Pena R 27 C 59 203 17 43 7 0 3 15 8 41 0 1
Peter Bourjos R 32 CF 118 290 33 63 12 5 5 25 16 79 3 4
Matt Thaiss L 24 1B 124 516 59 120 24 4 12 56 40 123 6 5
Albert Pujols R 39 1B 114 455 42 110 16 0 15 69 26 69 1 0
Sherman Johnson L 28 3B 104 363 40 70 15 2 6 31 41 112 7 3
Brennon Lund L 24 CF 106 441 47 100 15 3 6 37 31 126 16 5
Jared Walsh L 25 1B 119 456 53 98 25 1 16 56 34 164 1 1
Jahmai Jones R 21 2B 126 520 60 113 19 5 12 49 43 150 19 8
Eric Young Jr. B 34 CF 122 388 44 83 13 4 5 32 27 94 16 6
Bo Way L 27 CF 100 358 33 79 10 3 1 22 22 78 10 9
Stephen McGee R 28 C 55 170 19 30 7 0 4 15 23 70 0 0
Jose Rojas L 26 1B 110 426 45 96 18 2 11 45 23 112 6 5
Jack Kruger R 24 C 99 405 39 88 15 1 5 30 24 100 7 4
Brandon Marsh L 21 CF 119 499 56 103 19 4 11 49 44 191 10 5
Connor Justus R 24 SS 118 428 44 75 13 2 6 30 44 142 6 7
David MacKinnon R 24 1B 117 423 50 85 17 1 5 33 60 127 0 0
Roberto Baldoquin R 25 SS 81 302 24 60 7 2 2 20 15 92 4 5
Brandon Sandoval R 24 RF 101 383 37 85 10 2 3 24 25 105 14 10
Brendon Sanger L 25 RF 106 379 41 76 15 1 8 35 41 121 4 3

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Mike Trout 628 .291 .433 .590 180 .299 .328 10.1 1 8.3 Willie Mays
Andrelton Simmons 608 .278 .325 .392 97 .114 .292 4.9 17 4.2 Luke Appling
Shohei Ohtani 370 .270 .343 .515 133 .245 .347 6.6 0 2.2 Carlos May
Justin Upton 588 .236 .321 .446 109 .210 .303 5.1 1 2.1 Bob Bailey
Zack Cozart 378 .248 .315 .413 99 .165 .274 4.7 3 1.5 Rick Schu
Jabari Blash 407 .216 .317 .455 110 .239 .295 4.9 1 1.5 Karl Pagel
Kole Calhoun 583 .238 .312 .396 94 .158 .287 4.4 5 1.4 Jacque Jones
David Fletcher 556 .254 .293 .346 76 .092 .282 3.8 7 1.2 Alberto Gonzalez
Justin Bour 437 .236 .327 .444 111 .207 .279 5.2 -2 1.1 Paul Sorrento
Jose Miguel Fernandez 453 .260 .316 .392 95 .132 .273 4.5 3 0.7 Jim Bowie
Jonathan Lucroy 455 .247 .304 .351 81 .104 .282 3.9 -2 0.7 Tony Pena
Luis Rengifo 601 .239 .306 .358 83 .119 .282 3.8 -6 0.6 D’Angelo Jimenez
Jo Adell 439 .218 .269 .397 81 .179 .290 3.8 0 0.5 Matt Kemp
Jarrett Parker 308 .211 .292 .396 88 .185 .308 3.9 2 0.4 Damon Mashore
Wilfredo Tovar 427 .238 .280 .321 66 .083 .271 3.2 4 0.3 Alex Prieto
Jefry Marte 351 .229 .293 .414 93 .185 .259 4.3 -1 0.3 Ricky Freeman
Jose Briceno 330 .212 .246 .349 62 .138 .252 2.9 4 0.3 Jim Horner
Zach Houchins 461 .221 .260 .366 71 .145 .263 3.2 5 0.2 Clay Bellinger
Kevan Smith 313 .253 .298 .346 78 .093 .289 3.7 -3 0.2 Joe Azcue
Ben Revere 330 .265 .301 .348 79 .084 .286 4.1 2 0.1 Tike Redman
Taylor Ward 543 .224 .299 .335 76 .111 .282 3.6 -4 0.0 Carlos Villalobos
Ryan Schimpf 391 .202 .297 .396 89 .194 .302 3.9 -9 0.0 Shanie Dugas
Cesar Puello 359 .235 .316 .349 84 .114 .306 3.9 -2 -0.1 Domingo Michel
Dustin Garneau 271 .203 .263 .333 64 .130 .246 2.8 0 -0.1 Chad Moeller
Julian Leon 280 .185 .282 .321 67 .136 .268 2.8 -2 -0.1 Nicholas Derba
Tommy La Stella 217 .241 .313 .333 80 .092 .278 3.6 -4 -0.2 Johnny Burnett
Chris B. Young 203 .210 .287 .381 83 .171 .250 3.7 -2 -0.2 Mike Devereaux
Michael Hermosillo 432 .215 .290 .351 76 .136 .291 3.4 -4 -0.2 Xavier Paul
Roberto Pena 216 .212 .248 .291 49 .079 .252 2.4 3 -0.2 Pedro Grifol
Peter Bourjos 312 .217 .265 .345 67 .128 .282 3.0 1 -0.2 Dewayne Wise
Matt Thaiss 564 .233 .291 .364 80 .132 .283 3.6 2 -0.4 Willie Upshaw
Albert Pujols 486 .242 .284 .376 81 .134 .256 3.8 0 -0.4 Ray Knight
Sherman Johnson 411 .193 .279 .295 59 .102 .261 2.8 0 -0.5 Mike Hickey
Brennon Lund 482 .227 .285 .315 66 .088 .304 3.3 -4 -0.5 Chris Duffy
Jared Walsh 498 .215 .272 .379 78 .164 .297 3.5 1 -0.5 Jay Kirkpatrick
Jahmai Jones 572 .217 .282 .342 72 .125 .282 3.4 -8 -0.6 Desi Relaford
Eric Young Jr. 425 .214 .271 .307 60 .093 .270 3.0 -1 -0.6 Calvin Murray
Bo Way 392 .221 .275 .274 53 .053 .280 2.4 4 -0.7 Anthony Iapoce
Stephen McGee 196 .176 .281 .288 58 .112 .271 2.7 -6 -0.7 Jeff Ontiveros
Jose Rojas 455 .225 .267 .354 70 .129 .281 3.2 4 -0.7 Larry Barnes
Jack Kruger 435 .217 .267 .296 56 .079 .277 2.7 -2 -0.7 Mike Knapp
Brandon Marsh 547 .206 .272 .327 65 .120 .310 3.0 -2 -0.7 Xavier Paul
Connor Justus 487 .175 .267 .257 46 .082 .246 2.1 3 -0.9 Niuman Romero
David MacKinnon 494 .201 .306 .281 65 .080 .275 2.9 -1 -1.1 Dustin Yount
Roberto Baldoquin 324 .199 .242 .255 38 .056 .279 1.9 1 -1.2 Jason Bowers
Brandon Sandoval 413 .222 .272 .282 54 .060 .298 2.5 2 -1.4 Brent Bish
Brendon Sanger 426 .201 .282 .309 64 .108 .272 2.9 -7 -1.7 Alex Miranda

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Andrew Heaney L 28 10 8 3.95 28 28 161.7 163 71 23 38 148
Tyler Skaggs L 27 8 7 3.94 22 22 112.0 113 49 12 36 100
Jose Suarez L 21 5 5 4.18 26 26 116.3 110 54 16 46 115
Jaime Barria R 22 10 9 4.39 31 31 145.7 151 71 20 46 106
Griffin Canning R 23 8 7 4.33 23 23 114.3 111 55 14 47 99
Shohei Ohtani R 24 6 5 3.79 15 15 78.3 67 33 9 36 94
Cody Allen R 30 5 4 3.50 66 0 64.3 53 25 7 26 74
Trevor Cahill R 31 8 8 4.28 22 22 111.3 108 53 15 47 96
Matt Harvey R 30 7 8 4.56 27 24 132.3 144 67 21 30 101
Ty Buttrey R 26 3 3 3.88 49 2 67.3 61 29 6 32 71
John Lamb L 28 4 4 4.63 19 19 83.7 89 43 13 30 74
Patrick Sandoval L 22 5 6 4.75 24 19 102.3 103 54 16 45 90
Cam Bedrosian R 27 5 5 3.88 67 0 60.3 59 26 7 22 56
Alex Meyer R 29 4 4 4.43 16 11 63.0 59 31 7 34 62
Felix Pena R 29 5 6 4.73 24 22 123.7 129 65 20 45 112
Luis Garcia R 32 3 3 3.81 63 0 56.7 56 24 4 23 51
Dillon Peters L 26 7 9 4.74 24 22 117.7 133 62 16 38 77
Justin Anderson R 26 3 3 4.10 61 0 63.7 57 29 6 38 68
Taylor Cole R 29 3 3 4.19 53 0 73.0 68 34 10 33 73
Noe Ramirez R 29 5 5 4.19 61 0 73.0 68 34 11 28 77
Ivan Pineyro R 27 6 7 4.81 25 19 116.0 128 62 18 31 83
Joe Gatto R 24 6 8 5.00 25 25 113.3 123 63 10 67 67
Matt Ramsey R 29 3 2 4.08 39 1 46.3 44 21 5 20 45
Blake Wood R 33 3 3 3.95 52 0 54.7 53 24 5 24 52
Jim Johnson R 36 4 3 4.03 59 0 58.0 60 26 5 19 44
Hansel Robles R 28 4 4 4.17 63 0 69.0 65 32 9 31 67
Nick Tropeano R 28 5 7 4.98 17 17 86.7 92 48 16 35 74
John Curtiss R 26 3 3 4.30 48 0 60.7 56 29 7 31 60
JC Ramirez R 30 7 9 4.94 22 22 125.7 137 69 20 46 87
Dylan Unsworth R 26 5 7 5.07 22 16 103.0 120 58 18 21 59
Keynan Middleton R 25 2 2 4.24 50 0 51.0 49 24 7 22 51
Jeremy Rhoades R 26 6 7 4.52 52 0 71.7 77 36 10 22 52
Miguel Almonte R 26 3 4 5.25 32 9 58.3 61 34 9 30 49
Junichi Tazawa R 33 2 3 4.94 48 0 47.3 51 26 8 17 40
Deck McGuire R 30 6 8 5.22 31 19 110.3 116 64 20 48 90
Akeel Morris R 26 3 3 4.82 50 0 61.7 60 33 7 38 56
Luis Madero R 22 5 7 5.31 22 22 98.3 114 58 17 32 60
Jesus Castillo R 23 6 9 5.31 23 22 101.7 119 60 17 34 56
Ralston Cash R 27 4 6 4.92 46 0 64.0 64 35 9 36 60
Williams Jerez L 27 2 3 5.06 50 0 69.3 72 39 11 34 64
Zac Ryan R 25 4 5 4.95 40 0 63.7 64 35 6 44 50
Jake Jewell R 26 3 4 5.17 50 0 54.0 59 31 8 28 39
Daniel Procopio R 23 2 2 5.40 37 0 53.3 50 32 6 46 53
Forrest Snow R 30 5 8 5.69 27 17 104.3 119 66 24 35 82
Osmer Morales R 26 4 6 5.82 26 20 102.0 114 66 21 49 80
Luis Pena R 23 6 9 6.03 24 24 109.0 120 73 21 66 88
Ryan Clark R 25 4 7 6.39 39 7 76.0 90 54 18 37 58

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Andrew Heaney 682 8.24 2.12 1.28 .300 105 95 4.00 2.5 Mark Redman
Tyler Skaggs 483 8.04 2.89 0.96 .307 106 95 3.88 1.7 Steve Trout
Jose Suarez 503 8.90 3.56 1.24 .294 100 100 4.30 1.5 Bill Pulsipher
Jaime Barria 630 6.55 2.84 1.24 .290 95 105 4.57 1.5 Don Welchel
Griffin Canning 504 7.79 3.70 1.10 .291 96 104 4.53 1.3 Walt Terrell
Shohei Ohtani 335 10.80 4.14 1.03 .299 106 94 3.70 1.2 Kerry Wood
Cody Allen 270 10.35 3.64 0.98 .286 119 84 3.57 1.1 Turk Wendell
Trevor Cahill 489 7.76 3.80 1.21 .288 94 106 4.66 1.1 Bob Buhl
Matt Harvey 566 6.87 2.04 1.43 .301 89 113 4.48 0.9 Josh Towers
Ty Buttrey 294 9.49 4.28 0.80 .302 107 93 3.76 0.8 Clay Bryant
John Lamb 367 7.96 3.23 1.40 .308 90 111 4.58 0.7 Trey Moore
Patrick Sandoval 454 7.92 3.96 1.41 .293 88 114 4.92 0.6 Bill Krueger
Cam Bedrosian 259 8.35 3.28 1.04 .301 107 93 3.95 0.6 Jim Acker
Alex Meyer 281 8.86 4.86 1.00 .297 94 106 4.39 0.6 Chris Oxspring
Felix Pena 542 8.15 3.27 1.46 .304 85 117 4.68 0.6 Dennis Burtt
Luis Garcia 246 8.10 3.65 0.64 .311 106 95 3.54 0.6 Kevin Gryboski
Dillon Peters 521 5.89 2.91 1.22 .305 85 118 4.73 0.5 Jeff Mutis
Justin Anderson 286 9.61 5.37 0.85 .300 102 98 4.22 0.5 Marc Pisciotta
Taylor Cole 320 9.00 4.07 1.23 .291 99 101 4.49 0.5 Ruddy Lugo
Noe Ramirez 315 9.49 3.45 1.36 .294 99 101 4.36 0.4 Jim Dougherty
Ivan Pineyro 505 6.44 2.41 1.40 .301 84 119 4.72 0.4 Steve Lemke
Joe Gatto 528 5.32 5.32 0.79 .300 83 120 5.07 0.4 Rick Berg
Matt Ramsey 202 8.74 3.88 0.97 .300 102 98 4.03 0.4 Gabriel Dehoyos
Blake Wood 239 8.56 3.95 0.82 .308 102 98 3.86 0.4 Roger McDowell
Jim Johnson 251 6.83 2.95 0.78 .304 100 100 3.84 0.4 Fred Gladding
Hansel Robles 301 8.74 4.04 1.17 .293 97 103 4.38 0.3 Ruddy Lugo
Nick Tropeano 384 7.68 3.63 1.66 .297 84 120 5.16 0.3 Mark Thompson
John Curtiss 269 8.90 4.60 1.04 .293 97 103 4.40 0.3 Terry Bross
JC Ramirez 556 6.23 3.29 1.43 .295 82 123 5.08 0.3 Dick Fowler
Dylan Unsworth 447 5.16 1.83 1.57 .297 82 122 5.03 0.3 Daniel Griffin
Keynan Middleton 223 9.00 3.88 1.24 .298 95 105 4.35 0.2 Wayne Nix
Jeremy Rhoades 312 6.53 2.76 1.26 .299 92 109 4.60 0.2 Mike Draper
Miguel Almonte 265 7.56 4.63 1.39 .299 79 126 5.17 -0.1 Regular Bob Gibson
Junichi Tazawa 208 7.61 3.23 1.52 .303 84 119 4.80 -0.1 Jason Childers
Deck McGuire 494 7.34 3.92 1.63 .292 77 129 5.37 -0.1 Michael Smith
Akeel Morris 282 8.17 5.55 1.02 .298 84 119 4.80 -0.2 Heathcliff Slocumb
Luis Madero 439 5.49 2.93 1.56 .299 76 132 5.34 -0.2 Matt O’Brien
Jesus Castillo 456 4.96 3.01 1.50 .297 76 132 5.40 -0.2 Matt O’Brien
Ralston Cash 291 8.44 5.06 1.27 .301 82 122 4.93 -0.2 Ryan Henderson
Williams Jerez 313 8.31 4.41 1.43 .305 82 122 5.01 -0.3 Jimmy Hamilton
Zac Ryan 298 7.07 6.22 0.85 .299 82 123 5.07 -0.3 Lloyd Allen
Jake Jewell 249 6.50 4.67 1.33 .300 81 124 5.41 -0.3 Sean Green
Daniel Procopio 255 8.94 7.76 1.01 .299 75 134 5.38 -0.5 Heathcliff Slocumb
Forrest Snow 465 7.07 3.02 2.07 .299 73 137 5.75 -0.5 Jason Roach
Osmer Morales 467 7.06 4.32 1.85 .299 71 140 5.88 -0.6 Jeff Schmidt
Luis Pena 511 7.27 5.45 1.73 .300 69 145 6.02 -0.9 Joel Santo
Ryan Clark 353 6.87 4.38 2.13 .305 63 159 6.32 -1.3 Phil Dumatrait

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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BenZobrist4MVP
Member
BenZobrist4MVP

Willie Mays as Mike Trout’s no. 1 comp for the second year in a row. Remember back in 2017 when his no. 1 comp was “only” Mickey Mantle?

Pepper Martin
Member
Pepper Martin

Just remember — Mickey Mantle was arguably the greatest player ever through his age 29 season (which, for Trout, will be next year), and then… lost basically all of his skills except plate discipline, and played his last major league game at age 36. Trout doesn’t have Mantle’s major leg injuries in his past, and doesn’t appear to have Mantle’s drinking problem, but always keep in mind that we could be watching the last of Trout’s prime any day now.

TwinPeaks
Member
TwinPeaks

Technically, it’s Trout’s age 27 season next year, but he will turn 28 in August. But yes, at some point, probably within the next three years, he will start to decline.

dl80
Member
dl80

Only because Ted Williams missed 3 full seasons before age 29 to the war.

Nats Fan
Member
Nats Fan

Teddy Ballgame could get his team to the postseason.