2019 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers by Dan Szymborski February 8, 2019 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. ZiPS Projections 2019 2018 ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters With the position players, we have the sizzle that moved the Brewers from an adequate team to a very good one, thanks to the additions of last year’s best, high-profile free agent signing in Lorenzo Cain and the best, high-profile trade in Christian Yelich. ZiPS was a believer in both — I peppered my articles last winter with predictions of a Yelich breakout and Cain as the best free agent hitter available after J.D. Martinez — so the two of them having MVP-type seasons hardly should make ZiPS sour on them. And it didn’t! Sure, Cain turns 33 early in the season, but his defense hasn’t declined as of yet. Indeed, he may actually be underrated at this point; he should have made a minimum of four All-Star appearances rather than a measly two. I feel for Manny Pina, who is essentially getting pushed aside for Yasmani Grandal, and while the Brewers absolutely should prefer Grandal — he’s younger, better, and signed to a ridiculously team-friendly contract — Pina’s been perfectly adequate behind the plate. The depth charts have Kratz backing up Grandal, but I’d suspect that in a time when the catcher position is weak around baseball, Milwaukee will trade Pina, or play him for a bit before leaving him open to a waiver claim later in the spring. I’m kind of sad that Arcia’s projection for 2019 is so light on WAR. He’s always been a favorite of mine, but if he’s not matching his minor league glove reputation in the majors, he’s not much of a starter unless his bat rebounds in a big way. Pitchers ZiPS is once again more bullish on the Brew Crew’s starting pitching than Steamer is this year, but it still doesn’t see any of the Brewers as an obvious ace type. It’s easy for people criticize Steamer based on the current depth charts, but I think people are underestimating the challenges of projecting essentially the entire Brewer rotation. Each pitcher who is likely to contribute has at least something that makes it difficult for any prognosticator to do their job. Let’s take a look. Jhoulys Chacin beat his FIP by half-a-run thanks to a .250 BABIP. He’s shown no signs of being able to do this repeatedly in the past, but also spent a lot of his career at Coors, which is obviously an extremely difficult environment for a pitcher. Zach Davies looked like he was becoming a solid No. 2 or 3 guy, but missed significant time with shoulder injury in 2018. When it comes to Chase Anderson, well, there’s beating your FIP, and there’s beating your FIP, and Anderson did the latter in 2018, besting it by nearly a run-and-a-third. ZiPS buys that there’s some ability here, but just how big that ability is remains up in the air. Brandon Woodruff was up-and-down all year after struggling early, but will likely to get rotation spot despite only four major league starts in 2018 (he had more in the minors). Jimmy Nelson missed the entire 2018 season due to shoulder surgery. Corbin Burnes has yet to make a major league start. Freddy Peralta has a stat profile that looks like that of a guy who throws 97 rather than 90-91. ZiPS was closer when it came to the Brewers last year, but that’s not necessarily predictive; it wouldn’t take a lot for Steamer to win this battle. I’m less certain about the Brewers’ projections, at least on the pitching side, than I am most others this offseason. Bench and Prospects ZiPS buys Keston Hiura, and while it doesn’t have him becoming prime Dan Uggla or anything — I’m not sure why I chose Uggla here — the computer thinks that he’ll force his way into a job fairly quickly. I don’t think the Brewers will do with him what the White Sox did with Eloy Jimenez, and I suspect that if they weren’t going to give Hiura every opportunity to clear the field this summer, they’d have tendered Jonathan Schoop a contract. The projections now have Mauricio Dubon as the equal of Arcia, though a large part of that has to do with Arcia’s forgettable 2018 season. That the projection is damning with faint praise is further evidenced by the fact that ZiPS sees Tyler Saladino as roughly equivalent as well. After Hiura, Dubon, Trey Supak, and Zack Brown, ZiPS sees the quality falling off very quickly, not expecting Corey Ray to ever make enough contact to be an effective major league hitter, or Lucas Ercerg to be better than a reserve. One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site. Batters – Counting Stats Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Christian Yelich L 27 RF 154 590 102 176 38 5 28 103 73 142 19 4 Lorenzo Cain R 33 CF 132 506 78 145 23 3 11 45 53 92 23 5 Yasmani Grandal B 30 C 128 403 55 96 19 1 23 69 68 122 1 2 Travis Shaw L 29 3B 142 489 71 124 27 1 26 85 62 120 5 1 Mike Moustakas L 30 3B 140 528 68 141 28 1 32 97 41 94 2 1 Jesus Aguilar R 29 1B 153 465 69 120 23 1 28 95 50 133 0 0 Ryan Braun R 35 LF 113 398 59 107 22 2 18 65 36 86 11 4 Manny Pina R 32 C 95 304 37 75 16 1 8 36 21 64 2 0 Eric Thames L 32 1B 112 367 61 84 19 3 23 60 52 138 8 2 Christian Bethancourt R 27 C 114 365 42 86 19 0 15 50 16 89 4 1 Keston Hiura R 22 2B 122 491 57 127 26 6 12 49 31 125 11 10 Ben Gamel L 27 LF 140 479 65 128 27 8 9 53 44 108 10 4 Stephen Vogt L 34 C 116 372 43 93 20 2 15 56 35 77 0 1 Erik Kratz R 39 C 77 241 26 57 10 0 8 28 14 55 2 0 Brad Miller L 29 1B 115 366 44 87 20 4 15 55 45 112 4 2 Cory Spangenberg L 28 3B 137 419 52 103 18 5 13 49 33 140 11 3 Orlando Arcia R 24 SS 153 514 54 127 22 3 10 50 33 118 13 6 Tyrone Taylor R 25 CF 124 453 53 109 18 5 13 53 25 92 10 4 Hernan Perez R 28 2B 141 392 42 100 18 3 11 45 18 85 15 4 Mauricio Dubon R 24 SS 113 446 50 111 21 3 8 43 24 88 19 9 Nate Orf R 29 2B 121 428 53 96 20 3 6 37 42 94 11 3 Tyler Saladino R 29 SS 92 290 33 66 10 3 6 28 24 74 10 3 Troy Stokes R 23 LF 131 490 63 101 21 5 17 57 54 168 16 6 Max McDowell R 25 C 86 288 30 59 11 1 3 21 25 75 5 2 Jake Hager R 26 SS 100 376 38 87 19 3 7 37 23 86 5 3 Tyler Heineman B 28 C 74 244 28 54 12 0 3 19 25 46 2 1 Corey Ray L 24 CF 122 494 59 101 24 5 16 55 47 205 24 8 Jacob Nottingham R 24 C 90 313 36 63 13 2 11 37 25 121 3 2 Tuffy Gosewisch R 35 C 75 242 23 46 12 1 4 21 19 67 0 1 Andres Blanco B 35 2B 103 257 30 59 14 2 6 28 21 51 3 2 Lucas Erceg L 24 3B 123 479 51 111 23 2 11 49 31 114 3 3 Shane Opitz L 27 3B 76 221 22 47 9 2 2 17 17 52 4 2 Richie Shaffer R 28 1B 110 383 48 75 18 1 19 51 42 168 2 1 Jake Gatewood R 23 1B 115 441 52 98 22 2 16 55 32 167 3 2 Weston Wilson R 24 1B 114 424 46 93 18 3 9 42 27 130 5 6 Blake Allemand B 26 2B 107 372 38 84 15 2 6 31 26 92 2 4 Trent Grisham L 22 RF 122 415 52 83 13 4 9 36 64 137 15 5 Luis Aviles R 24 SS 130 471 45 97 17 3 6 36 28 169 21 8 Clint Coulter R 25 RF 115 394 44 81 18 3 13 46 27 138 2 3 Gabriel Noriega R 28 3B 86 241 20 49 6 0 3 16 9 73 1 2 Batters – Rate Stats Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Christian Yelich 673 .298 .379 .522 136 .224 .352 7.8 3 5.2 Carl Yastrzemski Lorenzo Cain 568 .287 .359 .409 104 .123 .333 5.9 10 3.8 Robin Yount Yasmani Grandal 475 .238 .349 .462 113 .223 .283 5.6 2 3.2 Frankie Hayes Travis Shaw 560 .254 .340 .472 113 .219 .286 5.9 2 3.2 Eric Chavez Mike Moustakas 580 .267 .324 .506 116 .239 .271 6.0 0 3.2 Graig Nettles Jesus Aguilar 526 .258 .333 .492 115 .234 .303 6.0 4 2.4 Matt LeCroy Ryan Braun 440 .269 .332 .470 110 .201 .303 5.8 0 1.5 Al Simmons Manny Pina 334 .247 .303 .385 81 .138 .289 4.3 5 1.3 Charlie Berry Eric Thames 427 .229 .333 .485 114 .256 .296 5.8 -4 1.2 David Dellucci Christian Bethancourt 386 .236 .267 .411 76 .175 .272 3.9 5 1.1 Rod Barajas Keston Hiura 534 .259 .315 .409 90 .151 .325 4.5 -2 1.0 Tony Batista Ben Gamel 530 .267 .331 .413 96 .146 .329 5.1 -2 0.9 David DeJesus Stephen Vogt 413 .250 .315 .435 97 .185 .279 4.9 -8 0.8 Bill Freehan Erik Kratz 263 .237 .294 .378 77 .141 .275 4.0 3 0.8 Pat Borders Brad Miller 416 .238 .320 .437 99 .199 .301 5.0 0 0.8 Mike Maksudian Cory Spangenberg 461 .246 .306 .406 87 .160 .338 4.6 -4 0.7 Mark Teahen Orlando Arcia 553 .247 .294 .360 73 .113 .303 3.8 2 0.6 Ronny Cedeno Tyrone Taylor 486 .241 .285 .389 77 .148 .276 4.0 2 0.6 Wendell Magee Hernan Perez 415 .255 .286 .401 80 .145 .301 4.3 0 0.6 Frank White Mauricio Dubon 483 .249 .288 .363 72 .114 .294 3.8 1 0.5 Diory Hernandez Nate Orf 489 .224 .307 .327 69 .103 .274 3.6 3 0.5 Brian Harris Tyler Saladino 321 .228 .292 .345 68 .117 .286 3.7 2 0.5 Chris Clapinski Troy Stokes 557 .206 .295 .373 76 .167 .275 3.8 5 0.4 Ryan Lane Max McDowell 328 .205 .288 .281 53 .076 .267 2.8 6 0.3 Brian Moon Jake Hager 408 .231 .278 .354 67 .122 .283 3.4 2 0.2 Ed Brinkman Tyler Heineman 276 .221 .297 .307 61 .086 .262 3.2 2 0.2 Dennis Anderson Corey Ray 546 .204 .277 .370 70 .166 .311 3.6 1 0.2 Brad Snyder Jacob Nottingham 348 .201 .277 .361 68 .160 .287 3.3 -1 0.1 Yohanny Valera Tuffy Gosewisch 269 .190 .258 .298 47 .107 .246 2.5 4 -0.2 Joe Oliver Andres Blanco 286 .230 .301 .370 77 .140 .265 3.9 -5 -0.2 Geoff Blum Lucas Erceg 516 .232 .280 .357 68 .125 .282 3.4 1 -0.2 Jose Valdez Shane Opitz 243 .213 .270 .299 51 .086 .269 2.8 4 -0.3 Jhonny Carvajal Richie Shaffer 431 .196 .281 .397 77 .201 .286 3.7 -2 -0.5 Danny Peoples Jake Gatewood 479 .222 .278 .390 75 .168 .318 3.7 1 -0.5 Rich Murray Weston Wilson 460 .219 .272 .340 61 .120 .295 3.0 7 -0.8 Marco Pernalete Blake Allemand 405 .226 .284 .325 62 .099 .285 3.1 -4 -0.9 Lionel Hastings Trent Grisham 487 .200 .308 .316 67 .116 .275 3.4 -3 -0.9 Roger Bernadina Luis Aviles 506 .206 .254 .293 45 .087 .307 2.6 3 -0.9 Dave Detienne Clint Coulter 433 .206 .270 .365 67 .160 .280 3.3 -3 -1.1 Dustan Mohr Gabriel Noriega 256 .203 .232 .266 32 .062 .279 2.0 0 -1.4 Toby Gardenhire Pitchers – Counting Stats Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO Freddy Peralta R 23 10 7 4.01 30 27 132.3 103 59 18 75 178 Zach Davies R 26 10 9 4.26 28 28 145.7 152 69 18 45 109 Corbin Burnes R 24 9 7 3.92 49 19 135.3 127 59 17 49 131 Jhoulys Chacin R 31 11 10 4.33 32 31 166.3 161 80 21 67 134 Gio Gonzalez L 33 10 9 4.38 29 29 158.3 154 77 19 69 139 Josh Hader L 25 5 2 2.95 59 0 73.3 46 24 10 35 125 Jimmy Nelson R 30 8 7 4.30 21 21 121.3 122 58 16 46 107 Brandon Woodruff R 26 6 6 4.21 32 23 117.7 113 55 14 47 112 Chase Anderson R 31 8 8 4.47 28 28 141.0 141 70 26 50 114 Brent Suter L 29 7 6 4.08 25 18 103.7 107 47 14 24 82 Corey Knebel R 27 4 2 2.90 64 0 62.0 44 20 7 28 95 Trey Supak R 23 7 7 4.48 26 24 122.7 125 61 14 57 101 Alex Claudio L 27 4 2 3.33 67 1 75.7 76 28 5 15 49 Junior Guerra R 34 6 6 4.46 26 22 119.0 114 59 18 51 107 Jeremy Jeffress R 31 5 3 3.12 66 0 66.3 57 23 5 26 68 Aaron Wilkerson R 30 6 6 4.63 22 18 101.0 102 52 15 39 90 Jake Thompson R 25 8 8 4.98 39 20 128.3 131 71 20 62 103 Jacob Barnes R 29 2 1 3.65 61 0 61.7 56 25 5 29 61 Xavier Cedeno L 32 2 1 3.55 62 0 45.7 41 18 4 19 45 Dan Jennings L 32 4 3 3.79 65 0 57.0 57 24 4 24 41 Josh Tomlin R 34 5 6 5.03 26 16 96.7 107 54 22 12 71 Michael Brady R 32 3 3 4.70 28 7 67.0 73 35 12 12 53 Deolis Guerra R 30 3 2 4.09 42 2 55.0 53 25 8 17 56 Zack Brown R 24 5 6 5.12 23 21 110.7 118 63 19 48 91 Bobby Wahl R 27 3 3 4.12 42 1 43.7 35 20 6 27 62 Thomas Jankins R 23 8 10 5.18 24 21 123.3 141 71 20 44 81 Jake Petricka R 31 2 2 4.20 52 0 60.0 63 28 6 21 45 Bubba Derby R 25 5 6 5.25 29 16 109.7 120 64 20 51 91 Angel Perdomo L 25 4 4 5.29 24 15 80.0 78 47 11 56 75 Tristan Archer R 28 4 4 4.38 50 1 76.0 78 37 10 25 63 Jon Olczak R 25 6 5 4.22 44 0 53.3 52 25 6 25 50 Matt Albers R 36 3 3 4.35 42 0 41.3 41 20 7 12 39 Adrian Houser R 26 3 4 5.42 27 20 88.0 98 53 16 37 69 Quintin Torres-Costa L 24 4 4 4.31 44 0 54.3 47 26 6 35 63 Taylor Williams R 27 2 2 4.34 60 0 56.0 56 27 7 27 58 Boone Logan L 34 1 1 4.30 36 0 23.0 20 11 3 15 28 Erik Davis R 32 4 5 4.55 45 0 55.3 54 28 7 31 53 Erik Kratz R 39 0 0 6.75 3 0 2.7 3 2 1 1 2 Miguel Sanchez R 25 2 2 4.76 34 0 58.7 55 31 11 30 68 Conor Harber R 25 5 7 5.38 28 15 97.0 101 58 11 74 73 Hernan Perez R 28 0 0 7.36 3 0 3.7 5 3 1 1 2 Brad Kuntz L 27 3 3 4.94 35 2 51.0 51 28 7 29 46 Paolo Espino R 32 5 6 5.48 23 15 88.7 96 54 21 29 79 Cody Ponce R 25 6 8 5.46 26 15 95.7 109 58 18 38 70 Cam Roegner L 26 6 8 5.92 24 21 100.3 117 66 19 49 63 Braden Webb R 24 6 8 5.77 24 22 101.3 105 65 16 78 92 Burch Smith R 29 3 4 5.74 32 7 69.0 72 44 13 40 66 Marcos Diplan R 22 5 8 5.82 25 23 106.7 111 69 14 93 92 Nate Griep R 25 2 2 5.33 53 0 52.3 52 31 5 42 43 Pitchers – Rate Stats Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp Freddy Peralta 575 12.11 5.10 1.22 .286 109 91 4.09 2.2 Jason Bere Zach Davies 630 6.73 2.78 1.11 .297 103 97 4.33 2.1 Early Wynn Corbin Burnes 581 8.71 3.26 1.13 .293 108 92 4.11 2.1 Bob Moose Jhoulys Chacin 724 7.25 3.63 1.14 .284 98 102 4.55 2.0 Bill Singer Gio Gonzalez 692 7.90 3.92 1.08 .293 97 103 4.36 1.8 Bill Hallahan Josh Hader 301 15.34 4.30 1.23 .281 149 67 3.07 1.6 Mitch Williams Jimmy Nelson 532 7.94 3.41 1.19 .299 99 101 4.46 1.5 Elmer Riddle Brandon Woodruff 511 8.57 3.59 1.07 .298 101 99 4.14 1.5 Pat Rapp Chase Anderson 609 7.28 3.19 1.66 .278 95 105 5.12 1.4 Andy Messersmith Brent Suter 438 7.12 2.08 1.22 .296 104 96 4.13 1.4 Stubby Overmire Corey Knebel 258 13.79 4.06 1.02 .296 147 68 3.05 1.3 Jim Kern Trey Supak 548 7.41 4.18 1.03 .301 95 105 4.55 1.3 Mike Mills Alex Claudio 315 5.83 1.78 0.59 .292 132 76 3.43 1.2 Sparky Lyle Junior Guerra 518 8.09 3.86 1.36 .284 95 105 4.70 1.2 Ken Hill Jeremy Jeffress 280 9.23 3.53 0.68 .291 136 73 3.35 1.2 Greg Minton Aaron Wilkerson 442 8.02 3.48 1.34 .297 95 106 4.61 1.0 Julian Tavarez Jake Thompson 575 7.22 4.35 1.40 .290 88 113 5.18 0.7 Joaquin Andujar Jacob Barnes 268 8.90 4.23 0.73 .298 117 86 3.73 0.6 Don McMahon Xavier Cedeno 195 8.87 3.74 0.79 .294 124 81 3.63 0.6 Don Hood Dan Jennings 249 6.47 3.79 0.63 .296 116 86 3.94 0.6 Darold Knowles Josh Tomlin 405 6.61 1.12 2.05 .286 87 114 5.11 0.5 Hal Brown Michael Brady 285 7.12 1.61 1.61 .299 93 107 4.61 0.4 Jose Bautista Deolis Guerra 233 9.16 2.78 1.31 .300 104 96 4.04 0.4 Jay Tessmer Zack Brown 496 7.40 3.90 1.55 .298 83 120 5.20 0.4 Ed Wojna Bobby Wahl 193 12.78 5.56 1.24 .302 107 94 4.09 0.3 Ryan Bukvich Thomas Jankins 552 5.91 3.21 1.46 .303 82 122 5.19 0.3 Nate Cornejo Jake Petricka 262 6.75 3.15 0.90 .305 105 96 4.15 0.3 Frank Linzy Bubba Derby 498 7.47 4.19 1.64 .303 84 120 5.42 0.3 Sean White Angel Perdomo 374 8.44 6.30 1.24 .296 83 120 5.39 0.2 Brian Snyder Tristan Archer 329 7.46 2.96 1.18 .300 97 103 4.35 0.2 Adrian Devine Jon Olczak 236 8.44 4.22 1.01 .303 101 99 4.31 0.2 Jerry Reed Matt Albers 176 8.49 2.61 1.52 .293 101 99 4.48 0.1 Mike Maddux Adrian Houser 397 7.06 3.78 1.64 .304 81 123 5.38 0.1 Mickey Callaway Quintin Torres-Costa 245 10.44 5.80 0.99 .297 99 101 4.36 0.1 Grant Jackson Taylor Williams 248 9.32 4.34 1.13 .316 98 102 4.20 0.1 Blaine Neal Boone Logan 105 10.96 5.87 1.17 .298 99 101 4.63 0.1 Marshall Bridges Erik Davis 250 8.62 5.04 1.14 .301 93 107 4.72 0.0 Dennis Higgins Erik Kratz 12 6.75 3.38 3.38 .250 63 159 7.65 0.0 Boom-Boom Beck Miguel Sanchez 261 10.43 4.60 1.69 .297 92 108 5.01 -0.1 Nguyen Van Phuoc Conor Harber 465 6.77 6.87 1.02 .299 79 126 5.59 -0.1 Tim Byron Hernan Perez 18 4.91 2.45 2.45 .308 58 173 7.24 -0.1 Alan Benes Brad Kuntz 232 8.12 5.12 1.24 .299 86 116 5.01 -0.1 Philip Barzilla Paolo Espino 390 8.02 2.94 2.13 .293 78 129 5.60 -0.1 Mark Knudson Cody Ponce 433 6.59 3.57 1.69 .302 78 128 5.51 -0.1 Tony Peguero Cam Roegner 465 5.65 4.40 1.70 .299 74 135 6.00 -0.4 Josh Shortslef Braden Webb 487 8.17 6.93 1.42 .303 74 136 5.90 -0.4 Jason Phillips Burch Smith 317 8.61 5.22 1.70 .303 74 135 5.56 -0.4 Marty McLeary Marcos Diplan 523 7.76 7.85 1.18 .306 73 137 5.94 -0.5 Jason Phillips Nate Griep 250 7.39 7.22 0.86 .299 80 125 5.33 -0.5 Dave Cole Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA. Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.