2019 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees.

Batters

After I posted the Yankees’ WARtoon on twitter, lots of people responded by picking the overs, particularly when it came to Luke Voit. Don’t be greedy. This is essentially a mean projection of 96-99 or so wins. Didn’t you learn the meaning of A Christmas Carol? If you hoard all the WAR, you will be visited by George Steinbrenner’s ghost. Wait, that actually sounds pretty cool, unless he brings along a ghastly manifestation of the Ken Phelps trade. (What is a ghost’s favorite player? Jay BOO-hner.)

ZiPS may be low on Voit, but 2.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances is an above-average first baseman, and Voit doesn’t have a long track record of excellence. It was only in 2017 that ZiPS started being interested in him, seeing his combined major league time and minor league translation as a .283/.352/.481 line. In 2018, the combined line was .284/.361/.516, not all that different in the big picture. Voit’s not a young player, and while he has hit very well in the majors, a player’s minor league career doesn’t just evaporate the second they hit the bigs and rock the league in a cup of coffee (see: Chris Singleton or Shane Greene).

The Yankees appear to have an almost Dodgers-like level of flexibility, with a number of infielders who can theoretically play every other position on the diamond. It’s a bit of over-engineering, but ideally, top teams should accumulate depth in this manner. I’d argue that the Phillies ought to have tried to sign Mike Moustakas, though he may not have been all that interested upon realizing that he’d basically be the team’s backup in the event Manny Machado cares to sign.

ZiPS now projects Aaron Hicks to be the fifth best center fielder in baseball. It’s a weird timeline, but we’re in it. Hicks is a borderline star and the fluke talk should be more or less behind us.

Pitchers

At this point last year, I was concerned about the very back end of the Yankees’ rotation, feeling that it ought to have been stronger than it was. This year it should be strong enough, so long as the pitchers can remain healthy. That’s a bigger and-but-if than is ideal, simply because James Paxton doesn’t have an inspiring history of throwing 180 innings a year. I still think the team would benefit from a bit of over-engineering here as well, and should consider signing someone like Gio Gonzalez just to be around for the inevitable injuries. He’s better than Luis Cessa or Domingo German, and I think the team would be more comfortable throwing him into the rotation than they would Johnny Lasagna, at least for another year. At the very least, it might reduce any temptation the Yankees have to try to rush Jordan Montgomery back in late summer.

The rotation may be strong, but ohmygod that bullpen. Last year’s 7.7 WAR in the Yankees’ ZiPS depth chart was the most WAR ZiPS had ever projected for a bullpen. This year, it’s even better. By ERA+, the Yankees have the No. 1, No. 4, and No. 5 pitchers in baseball out of the bullpen, and that’s not even including Zack Britton (No. 32). (Three more recent ex-Yankees are in the top 25: David Robertson (No. 7), Andrew Miller (No. 10), and Giovanny Gallegos (No. 24).) The biggest issue they’re likely to face is trouble finding enough high-leverage innings to go around — this was the issue with Adam Warren last year — and maybe, I don’t know, someone getting bored and throwing firecrackers at children in the stands? But that sounds more like a Mets thing anyway.

Bench and Prospects

The bench is deep, with DJ LeMahieu a legitimate starter, and Troy Tulowitzki behind him, who I still have hopes for. Call me an optimist. ZiPS thinks that Clint Frazier is at least a very good fourth outfielder, and while Jacoby Ellsbury is still technically around, I suspect that the Yankees will finally exile him to another team and end up eating his contract, at least once all parties agree that he’s too injured to be on the active roster.

Thanks to graduations and trades, the team’s farm system has thinned out considerably, which in essence means they’re using it properly. You want graduations and trades, not guys listed on your top prospect list for half a decade without playing in the majors. The consequence, though, is that the team has fewer in-house reinforcements in the short-term, and fewer players to dangle for trade deadline acquisitions. Hence the over-engineering in the lineup and bullpen.

ZiPS soured on Chance Adams tremendously in 2018 but still sees Loaisiga as a rotation option very soon. And it has a fascination with Michael King, who in truth needs another pitch. After Estevan Florial, who is still raw but good enough to at least get the long-term projection of a fourth outfielder with upside, the projections don’t see a lot in the upper minors this year.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ Depth Charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Aaron Judge R 27 RF 128 466 86 121 20 1 35 90 84 179 7 3
Giancarlo Stanton R 29 RF 150 564 98 144 27 1 47 121 72 198 4 1
Aaron Hicks B 29 CF 129 431 71 109 20 3 21 70 68 100 10 4
Didi Gregorius L 29 SS 143 529 76 145 26 3 22 83 36 74 7 4
Gleyber Torres R 22 SS 135 482 62 128 22 3 25 85 49 130 10 5
Gary Sanchez R 26 C 110 415 68 102 21 0 28 85 44 121 3 1
DJ LeMahieu R 30 2B 139 552 85 151 24 3 12 56 48 96 8 5
Luke Voit R 28 1B 129 428 65 113 20 2 22 75 47 119 1 1
Miguel Andujar R 24 3B 149 578 76 160 40 2 23 88 29 102 3 2
Brett Gardner L 35 LF 130 495 80 122 20 5 12 45 60 107 15 3
Clint Frazier R 24 CF 102 378 56 91 20 4 17 53 40 124 7 2
Adeiny Hechavarria R 30 SS 117 389 45 101 14 3 7 42 21 69 3 1
Greg Bird L 26 1B 88 304 39 68 17 1 16 52 39 91 0 0
Jacoby Ellsbury L 35 CF 98 356 50 90 15 3 5 33 32 65 15 5
Troy Tulowitzki R 34 SS 86 321 34 75 12 0 11 45 25 76 1 0
Austin Romine R 30 C 77 240 26 57 12 0 7 35 15 59 1 0
Ryan Lavarnway R 31 C 85 280 32 63 14 0 8 33 27 74 0 1
Mike Ford L 26 1B 109 392 54 93 19 1 16 55 46 90 1 0
Francisco Diaz B 29 C 67 216 22 49 6 1 1 13 21 49 0 0
Giovanny Urshela R 27 3B 108 378 39 92 14 1 8 37 18 69 0 0
Estevan Florial L 21 CF 103 408 50 89 16 3 12 43 41 168 14 12
Tyler Wade L 24 SS 128 456 55 101 19 4 8 37 42 129 14 7
Jorge Saez R 28 C 56 182 21 35 5 0 6 22 17 72 1 1
Mandy Alvarez R 24 3B 105 387 42 92 19 2 9 41 20 67 2 1
Thairo Estrada R 23 SS 102 424 44 105 15 3 4 30 20 71 4 6
Brandon Wagner L 23 1B 124 448 58 98 17 0 16 52 53 173 2 1
Ryan Lidge B 24 C 60 198 23 44 4 0 4 14 19 44 1 2
Kyle Higashioka R 29 C 83 285 32 62 14 1 10 39 20 72 1 0
Rey Navarro B 29 2B 93 354 37 82 15 1 9 39 20 65 2 2
Bruce Caldwell L 27 2B 114 407 46 82 16 1 11 42 47 161 2 1
L.J. Mazzilli R 28 2B 98 331 36 73 15 2 6 31 28 80 4 3
Wilkin Castillo B 35 C 44 145 12 29 6 0 2 10 6 24 1 1
Billy Fleming R 26 2B 83 299 33 70 15 2 6 31 19 71 2 2
Matt Lipka R 27 CF 118 366 37 74 12 4 5 33 26 103 14 6
Billy Burns R 29 CF 109 403 46 100 10 3 3 28 25 67 14 8
Kyle Holder L 25 SS 82 328 31 75 10 2 4 24 16 60 3 4
Devyn Bolasky L 26 LF 67 235 24 56 7 2 1 16 16 40 2 3
Zack Zehner R 26 LF 115 413 46 86 18 3 11 44 39 153 3 3
Ryan McBroom R 27 1B 126 482 54 107 20 1 17 58 29 162 2 4
Ben Ruta R 25 LF 112 413 41 98 14 4 5 33 24 96 20 14
Trey Amburgey R 24 LF 121 471 51 102 19 2 13 52 21 142 9 3
Gosuke Katoh L 24 3B 110 406 43 82 19 2 6 33 44 141 8 7
Quintin Berry L 34 LF 80 237 22 42 5 1 3 16 22 87 16 5

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Judge 560 .260 .375 .532 139 .273 .341 7.3 7 4.6 Tim Salmon
Giancarlo Stanton 649 .255 .344 .557 135 .301 .304 7.0 5 4.6 Rudy York
Aaron Hicks 507 .253 .354 .459 116 .206 .284 5.9 3 3.2 Lee Mazzilli
Didi Gregorius 580 .274 .324 .459 106 .185 .284 5.5 2 3.0 Granny Hamner
Gleyber Torres 543 .266 .336 .479 115 .214 .315 5.9 -6 2.6 Troy Tulowitzki
Gary Sanchez 467 .246 .323 .499 115 .253 .278 5.8 -5 2.5 Todd Hundley
DJ LeMahieu 611 .274 .332 .393 93 .120 .313 4.8 5 2.2 Felipe Lopez
Luke Voit 483 .264 .344 .474 116 .210 .317 6.0 0 1.9 George Scott
Miguel Andujar 618 .277 .314 .472 106 .196 .302 5.5 -9 1.6 Michael Barrett
Brett Gardner 569 .246 .333 .380 91 .133 .293 4.7 6 1.5 Kenny Lofton
Clint Frazier 426 .241 .317 .450 102 .209 .312 5.2 -6 1.1 Rob Ducey
Adeiny Hechavarria 417 .260 .296 .365 76 .105 .300 4.0 5 0.9 Luis Maza
Greg Bird 350 .224 .317 .444 101 .220 .264 4.9 -1 0.6 Pat Dodson
Jacoby Ellsbury 395 .253 .321 .354 81 .101 .297 4.3 -1 0.5 Andy Van Slyke
Troy Tulowitzki 351 .234 .293 .374 77 .140 .274 3.9 0 0.5 Rico Petrocelli
Austin Romine 261 .238 .285 .375 75 .138 .287 3.8 1 0.5 Randy Knorr
Ryan Lavarnway 314 .225 .304 .361 77 .136 .278 3.7 -1 0.5 Keith McDonald
Mike Ford 445 .237 .319 .413 94 .176 .269 4.7 -1 0.4 Adan Millan
Francisco Diaz 242 .227 .298 .278 56 .051 .289 2.9 6 0.4 Dave Parrish
Giovanny Urshela 401 .243 .280 .349 67 .106 .279 3.5 5 0.3 Carlo Colombino
Estevan Florial 451 .218 .290 .360 73 .142 .338 3.4 4 0.2 Herm Winningham
Tyler Wade 506 .221 .292 .333 67 .112 .292 3.4 1 0.2 Jerry Bertolani
Jorge Saez 202 .192 .262 .319 55 .126 .279 2.7 3 0.1 Ryan Luzinski
Mandy Alvarez 412 .238 .277 .367 70 .129 .267 3.6 2 0.1 Jose Valdez
Thairo Estrada 454 .248 .289 .325 65 .078 .289 3.2 3 0.1 Gus Polidor
Brandon Wagner 510 .219 .310 .364 80 .145 .317 3.9 2 0.0 Nate Rolison
Ryan Lidge 221 .222 .291 .303 60 .081 .267 2.9 1 -0.1 Dave Miley
Kyle Higashioka 309 .218 .269 .379 71 .161 .256 3.5 -3 -0.1 Chris Widger
Rey Navarro 380 .232 .272 .356 66 .124 .261 3.3 -1 -0.4 Kevin Baez
Bruce Caldwell 462 .201 .286 .327 64 .125 .302 3.2 -2 -0.5 Adam Morrissey
L.J. Mazzilli 364 .221 .284 .332 64 .112 .273 3.2 -3 -0.6 Leo Durocher
Wilkin Castillo 155 .200 .235 .283 38 .083 .227 2.2 0 -0.6 Tony Pena
Billy Fleming 325 .234 .284 .358 70 .124 .288 3.5 -5 -0.6 Jorge Alvarez
Matt Lipka 404 .202 .262 .298 50 .096 .267 2.7 4 -0.6 Jose Soriano
Billy Burns 441 .248 .297 .310 63 .062 .291 3.3 -3 -0.8 Norris Hopper
Kyle Holder 350 .229 .268 .308 54 .079 .269 2.7 -1 -0.8 Matt DeMarco
Devyn Bolasky 256 .238 .294 .298 60 .060 .284 2.9 -2 -1.0 Corey Coles
Zack Zehner 457 .208 .279 .346 66 .138 .301 3.2 -1 -1.0 Robert Bohnet
Ryan McBroom 524 .222 .273 .373 71 .151 .297 3.4 1 -1.0 Danny Matienzo
Ben Ruta 443 .237 .279 .327 62 .090 .298 3.0 2 -1.2 Brian Graham
Trey Amburgey 504 .217 .258 .348 60 .132 .282 3.2 2 -1.2 Scott Jaster
Gosuke Katoh 456 .202 .282 .303 57 .101 .293 2.7 -4 -1.3 Ronald Bourquin
Quintin Berry 265 .177 .255 .245 35 .068 .265 2.3 -1 -1.5 Joe Orsulak

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Luis Severino R 25 16 9 3.34 31 31 186.0 167 69 21 43 205
James Paxton L 30 10 6 3.54 27 27 147.3 134 58 18 38 162
Masahiro Tanaka R 30 11 7 3.78 27 27 157.0 148 66 23 31 149
J.A. Happ L 36 12 8 3.82 27 27 153.0 141 65 20 46 142
CC Sabathia L 38 8 6 4.16 25 25 132.0 134 61 18 44 108
Chad Green R 28 6 2 2.70 61 0 73.3 59 22 7 19 91
Michael King R 24 9 8 4.62 26 25 146.0 159 75 23 34 106
Jordan Montgomery L 26 7 6 4.37 22 22 113.3 112 55 15 41 99
Dellin Betances R 31 7 2 2.63 63 0 61.7 41 18 5 30 98
Aroldis Chapman L 31 3 1 2.50 54 0 50.3 31 14 4 25 83
Brian Keller R 25 9 9 4.85 22 21 117.0 129 63 18 39 87
Garrett Whitlock R 23 7 6 4.82 23 21 106.3 111 57 13 51 82
Adam Ottavino R 33 5 3 3.50 65 0 61.7 45 24 7 32 85
Jonathan Loaisiga R 24 5 4 4.28 22 17 75.7 77 36 12 18 73
Jonathan Holder R 26 3 2 3.57 61 0 68.0 64 27 7 18 64
Zack Britton L 31 2 1 3.26 49 0 47.0 41 17 3 19 43
Domingo German R 26 5 5 4.71 25 19 101.3 100 53 17 36 103
Luis Cessa R 27 6 6 4.72 26 17 101.0 105 53 16 32 83
Nestor Cortes L 24 6 6 4.98 29 17 110.3 118 61 17 44 87
Raynel Espinal R 27 5 4 4.21 36 4 66.3 64 31 10 23 73
Phillip Diehl L 24 4 3 4.05 37 1 73.3 69 33 8 33 76
Domingo Acevedo R 25 4 4 4.93 19 16 84.0 92 46 14 30 64
Stephen Tarpley L 26 5 4 3.95 44 0 68.3 63 30 5 38 63
Trevor Stephan R 23 7 7 5.19 23 23 111.0 119 64 20 43 96
Tommy Kahnle R 29 4 2 3.76 54 0 52.7 44 22 5 28 66
Daniel Coulombe L 29 2 1 3.89 48 0 44.0 41 19 5 19 42
Ben Heller R 27 4 2 3.80 40 0 42.7 37 18 5 20 48
Matt Wivinis R 25 3 2 4.24 44 0 51.0 49 24 7 18 52
Adonis Rosa R 24 9 10 5.39 27 20 120.3 141 72 21 41 77
Drew Hutchison R 28 6 7 5.37 26 19 110.7 121 66 20 47 90
Chance Adams R 24 6 7 5.42 29 25 118.0 123 71 21 66 100
Matt Frawley R 23 4 4 4.57 43 1 67.0 69 34 8 31 55
Trevor Lane L 25 4 3 4.48 40 0 66.3 68 33 8 26 55
David Sosebee R 25 6 5 4.48 42 0 60.3 59 30 8 30 55
David Hale R 31 3 4 5.29 17 14 80.0 94 47 14 24 51
Danny Farquhar R 32 4 3 4.60 56 0 58.7 58 30 10 23 57
James Reeves L 26 2 2 4.91 31 2 55.0 53 30 8 32 54
Joe Harvey R 27 2 2 4.72 39 0 47.7 46 25 7 25 47
Nick Nelson R 23 6 8 5.65 25 25 106.7 109 67 15 81 94
J.P. Feyereisen R 26 5 5 4.85 39 0 55.7 56 30 8 31 52
Cale Coshow R 26 3 3 5.15 41 0 57.7 59 33 10 32 56
Albert Abreu R 23 4 5 6.04 17 17 67.0 75 45 13 40 52
Rex Brothers L 31 4 5 5.23 48 0 41.3 36 24 4 43 49
Hobie Harris R 26 2 2 5.52 28 0 44.0 47 27 8 26 38
Brady Lail R 25 5 7 5.85 31 12 92.3 105 60 18 45 68

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Luis Severino 762 9.92 2.08 1.02 .300 132 76 3.20 4.5 Roy Halladay
James Paxton 606 9.90 2.32 1.10 .301 124 80 3.35 3.2 John Smiley
Masahiro Tanaka 643 8.54 1.78 1.32 .287 116 86 3.83 3.1 Cory Lidle
J.A. Happ 639 8.35 2.71 1.18 .283 115 87 3.97 2.9 Kenny Rogers
CC Sabathia 571 7.36 3.00 1.23 .294 106 94 4.45 2.1 Kenny Rogers
Chad Green 296 11.17 2.33 0.86 .294 163 61 2.77 1.7 Rollie Fingers
Michael King 628 6.53 2.10 1.42 .298 95 105 4.61 1.6 Rick Wise
Jordan Montgomery 489 7.86 3.26 1.19 .294 101 99 4.31 1.5 Chris Hammond
Dellin Betances 258 14.30 4.38 0.73 .300 162 62 2.73 1.4 Jim Kern
Aroldis Chapman 208 14.84 4.47 0.72 .290 170 59 2.55 1.3 Billy Wagner
Brian Keller 517 6.69 3.00 1.38 .303 91 110 4.84 1.0 Michael Macdonald
Garrett Whitlock 479 6.94 4.32 1.10 .300 91 110 4.81 0.9 Rick Berg
Adam Ottavino 263 12.41 4.67 1.02 .281 126 80 3.62 0.9 Jeff Nelson
Jonathan Loaisiga 320 8.68 2.14 1.43 .304 100 100 4.11 0.9 John Hope
Jonathan Holder 284 8.47 2.38 0.93 .297 123 81 3.53 0.8 Chad Bradford
Zack Britton 199 8.23 3.64 0.57 .286 135 74 3.43 0.8 Steve Kline
Domingo German 438 9.15 3.20 1.51 .300 91 110 4.51 0.7 Sergio Mitre
Luis Cessa 437 7.40 2.85 1.43 .295 90 111 4.64 0.7 Bill Swift
Nestor Cortes 490 7.10 3.59 1.39 .300 89 113 4.91 0.7 Wade Parrish
Raynel Espinal 286 9.90 3.12 1.36 .307 105 96 4.13 0.6 Tim Crabtree
Phillip Diehl 321 9.33 4.05 0.98 .305 109 92 4.01 0.6 Mike Munoz
Domingo Acevedo 373 6.86 3.21 1.50 .300 89 112 5.04 0.6 Rick Aguilera
Stephen Tarpley 305 8.30 5.00 0.66 .297 111 90 4.10 0.5 Marcelino Lopez
Trevor Stephan 493 7.78 3.49 1.62 .302 85 118 5.09 0.5 Ben Christensen
Tommy Kahnle 228 11.28 4.78 0.85 .305 113 88 3.53 0.4 Jason Bulger
Daniel Coulombe 191 8.59 3.89 1.02 .293 110 91 4.15 0.4 Tippy Martinez
Ben Heller 185 10.13 4.22 1.05 .294 116 86 4.04 0.4 Brian Wilson
Matt Wivinis 220 9.18 3.18 1.24 .300 104 96 4.13 0.2 Mark Dewey
Adonis Rosa 541 5.76 3.07 1.57 .305 82 122 5.36 0.2 Bill King
Drew Hutchison 499 7.32 3.82 1.63 .301 82 122 5.34 0.2 Kevin Hodges
Chance Adams 540 7.63 5.03 1.60 .294 81 123 5.60 0.2 Kyle Money
Matt Frawley 300 7.39 4.16 1.07 .302 96 104 4.63 0.2 Jason Szuminski
Trevor Lane 292 7.46 3.53 1.09 .302 98 102 4.42 0.1 Tanyon Sturtze
David Sosebee 270 8.20 4.48 1.19 .295 98 102 4.74 0.1 Julio DePaula
David Hale 356 5.74 2.70 1.58 .304 81 124 5.20 0.1 Joe Mays
Danny Farquhar 256 8.74 3.53 1.53 .294 96 105 4.75 0.0 Pete Walker
James Reeves 249 8.84 5.24 1.31 .296 90 111 4.99 0.0 Jeff Ridgway
Joe Harvey 214 8.87 4.72 1.32 .295 93 107 4.85 0.0 Marc Pisciotta
Nick Nelson 509 7.93 6.83 1.27 .301 78 128 5.69 0.0 Edwin Morel
J.P. Feyereisen 253 8.41 5.01 1.29 .302 91 110 4.98 -0.1 Marc Pisciotta
Cale Coshow 263 8.74 4.99 1.56 .302 86 117 5.28 -0.3 Ryan Baker
Albert Abreu 315 6.99 5.37 1.75 .301 73 137 6.09 -0.3 Jake Joseph
Rex Brothers 202 10.67 9.36 0.87 .308 82 122 5.30 -0.3 Arnold Earley
Hobie Harris 205 7.77 5.32 1.64 .300 80 125 5.76 -0.4 Rick Greene
Brady Lail 425 6.63 4.39 1.75 .301 75 133 5.84 -0.4 Mark Woodyard

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in Triple-A or .300 in Double-A, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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