2019 ZiPS Projections – New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees.

Batters

After I posted the Yankees’ WARtoon on twitter, lots of people responded by picking the overs, particularly when it came to Luke Voit. Don’t be greedy. This is essentially a mean projection of 96-99 or so wins. Didn’t you learn the meaning of A Christmas Carol? If you hoard all the WAR, you will be visited by George Steinbrenner’s ghost. Wait, that actually sounds pretty cool, unless he brings along a ghastly manifestation of the Ken Phelps trade. (What is a ghost’s favorite player? Jay BOO-hner.)

ZiPS may be low on Voit, but 2.4 WAR per 600 plate appearances is an above-average first baseman, and Voit doesn’t have a long track record of excellence. It was only in 2017 that ZiPS started being interested in him, seeing his combined major league time and minor league translation as a .283/.352/.481 line. In 2018, the combined line was .284/.361/.516, not all that different in the big picture. Voit’s not a young player, and while he has hit very well in the majors, a player’s minor league career doesn’t just evaporate the second they hit the bigs and rock the league in a cup of coffee (see: Chris Singleton or Shane Greene).

The Yankees appear to have an almost Dodgers-like level of flexibility, with a number of infielders who can theoretically play every other position on the diamond. It’s a bit of over-engineering, but ideally, top teams should accumulate depth in this manner. I’d argue that the Phillies ought to have tried to sign Mike Moustakas, though he may not have been all that interested upon realizing that he’d basically be the team’s backup in the event Manny Machado cares to sign.

ZiPS now projects Aaron Hicks to be the fifth best center fielder in baseball. It’s a weird timeline, but we’re in it. Hicks is a borderline star and the fluke talk should be more or less behind us.

Pitchers

At this point last year, I was concerned about the very back end of the Yankees’ rotation, feeling that it ought to have been stronger than it was. This year it should be strong enough, so long as the pitchers can remain healthy. That’s a bigger and-but-if than is ideal, simply because James Paxton doesn’t have an inspiring history of throwing 180 innings a year. I still think the team would benefit from a bit of over-engineering here as well, and should consider signing someone like Gio Gonzalez just to be around for the inevitable injuries. He’s better than Luis Cessa or Domingo German, and I think the team would be more comfortable throwing him into the rotation than they would Johnny Lasagna, at least for another year. At the very least, it might reduce any temptation the Yankees have to try to rush Jordan Montgomery back in late summer.

The rotation may be strong, but ohmygod that bullpen. Last year’s 7.7 WAR in the Yankees’ ZiPS depth chart was the most WAR ZiPS had ever projected for a bullpen. This year, it’s even better. By ERA+, the Yankees have the No. 1, No. 4, and No. 5 pitchers in baseball out of the bullpen, and that’s not even including Zack Britton (No. 32). (Three more recent ex-Yankees are in the top 25: David Robertson (No. 7), Andrew Miller (No. 10), and Giovanny Gallegos (No. 24).) The biggest issue they’re likely to face is trouble finding enough high-leverage innings to go around — this was the issue with Adam Warren last year — and maybe, I don’t know, someone getting bored and throwing firecrackers at children in the stands? But that sounds more like a Mets thing anyway.

Bench and Prospects

The bench is deep, with DJ LeMahieu a legitimate starter, and Troy Tulowitzki behind him, who I still have hopes for. Call me an optimist. ZiPS thinks that Clint Frazier is at least a very good fourth outfielder, and while Jacoby Ellsbury is still technically around, I suspect that the Yankees will finally exile him to another team and end up eating his contract, at least once all parties agree that he’s too injured to be on the active roster.

Thanks to graduations and trades, the team’s farm system has thinned out considerably, which in essence means they’re using it properly. You want graduations and trades, not guys listed on your top prospect list for half a decade without playing in the majors. The consequence, though, is that the team has fewer in-house reinforcements in the short-term, and fewer players to dangle for trade deadline acquisitions. Hence the over-engineering in the lineup and bullpen.

ZiPS soured on Chance Adams tremendously in 2018 but still sees Loaisiga as a rotation option very soon. And it has a fascination with Michael King, who in truth needs another pitch. After Estevan Florial, who is still raw but good enough to at least get the long-term projection of a fourth outfielder with upside, the projections don’t see a lot in the upper minors this year.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ Depth Charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

 

 

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in Triple-A or .300 in Double-A, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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