2019 ZiPS Projections – San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres.

Batters

There’s no way to talk about the Padres’ offense while ignoring the elephant in the room, San Diego’s big infield acquisition this winter. I’m talking, of course, about Ian Kinsler, who remains one of the most underrated players in baseball. The last time Kinsler failed to put up two WAR in a season was 2006, and even as his bat has declined — to a wRC+ of 93 in 2017 and 87 in 2018 — his glove has continued to add a whole win to his bottom line. He’s a really good transitional pickup as the Padres shift towards their Luis Urias/Fernando Tatis-based future.

Oh, right, you probably want to hear about the other dude! Manny Machado projects better as a third baseman than as a shortstop. Simply put, based on his age, his brief history at short and more lengthy one at third base, and a few other indicators — when you know nothing about a player, generalized speed data does have a relationship with defensive performance — Machado played worse defense at shortstop than ZiPS projected going into 2018. While we’d need to see a few years of him back at third to know whether this was due to a general defensive decline on his part or something shortstop-specific, ZiPS believes he’s a bit more valuable at third right now.

Overall, the projections for the Padres indicate a strong group of position players, no matter how the playing time actually sorts out in 2019. I know I rag on Eric Hosmer’s contract, but from a pure baseball standpoint rather than one of efficiency, if first base is really San Diego’s biggest lineup problem, the team’s probably in a good place.

Pitchers and Prospects (For this team, they’re inseparable!)

At least in the projections, the pitching is what’s currently preventing San Diego from being a serious wild card contender. Machado gets them to the periphery — close enough to .500 that them throwing up a wild card year like the Twins did in 2017 isn’t actually that crazy — but it’s still more likely than not that they’re playing for pride in September rather than the playoffs.

But that’s OK. Machado, like Harper, is a special player, the sort that is hard to develop yourself, so immediately contending with him isn’t as crucial as it would be for a more traditional rental. After all, he’s sticking around and will still be quite young come 2020. And San Diego has a very deep cadre of pitchers on the farm, most of whom ZiPS is very optimistic about long-term. While the rotation WAR totals you’ll see in the depth chart are relatively low, that’s more a function of the low number of projected innings than of the pitchers actually struggling.

After Joey Lucchesi, who I believe ought to be considered an established No. 2 or 3 starter, ZiPS already projects seven other young pitchers to have an ERA+ at least in the high 80s right now (96 is historically about league-average for a starter): Logan Allen, Jacob Nix, Chris Paddack, Eric Lauer, Brett Kennedy, Jesse Scholtens, and Dinelson Lamet, with the last returning from injury sometime this summer. That still doesn’t include MacKenzie Gore, who didn’t receive an official 2019 projection (I don’t like giving pitcher projections for individual seasons until guys have some time at Double-A). Gore is ranked as the No. 22 prospect on Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel’s 2019 Top 100 list, and Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon, and Anderson Espinoza, who ranked in Eric and Kiley’s top 132, haven’t yet received official projections.

In other words, while the Padres 2019 pitching staff is likely to be unimpressive, the weight of talent coming up from the minors is such that even if There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect, the problem ought to resolve itself in the next couple of years.

That said, looking at the Padres projections, Machado pulls the team close enough that you wonder if they should try to add a short-term starting pitcher. Extra wins here are quite valuable; if Dallas Keuchel isn’t finding this year’s market to his liking, perhaps there’s a number he would accept on a one-year contract. Because at least as ZiPS goes, if you could tempt Keuchel with one-year and $25 million, or with some other one-or-two-or-three year deal, this roster would project as the second-place team in the NL West, over the Colorado Rockies.

As for the bullpen, ZiPS isn’t that much more excited than it is for the rotation. The Padres have wrung a lot out of their bullpen and done so cheaply, getting some good performances even while rebuilding, but they also traded away Brad Hand, Adam Cimber, and Ryan Buchter over the last 18 months or so, which does make the group weaker than it would be otherwise. I won’t fault San Diego for that, simply because the process of sorting out the rotation will likely help sort out the bullpen as well, and because pre-Machado, 2020 and 2021 were better targets for contention than 2019 was.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ Depth Charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Manny Machado R 26 3B 156 613 87 172 35 2 32 97 65 111 12 3
Luis Urias R 22 2B 132 509 67 125 24 6 7 47 61 116 4 2
Franmil Reyes R 23 RF 143 496 74 128 21 1 28 79 53 152 1 2
Manuel Margot R 24 CF 142 524 61 136 26 9 10 53 37 100 16 9
Wil Myers R 28 LF 128 478 71 119 27 3 23 73 54 150 19 4
Ian Kinsler R 37 2B 115 446 64 110 23 1 12 39 40 63 13 6
Hunter Renfroe R 27 RF 134 498 63 124 27 2 27 81 30 142 3 1
Eric Hosmer L 29 1B 154 586 80 157 28 2 20 81 62 128 7 3
Francisco Mejia B 23 C 131 477 55 119 25 2 14 50 28 100 1 1
Austin Hedges R 26 C 108 355 38 82 17 1 16 52 22 103 3 1
Christian Villanueva R 28 3B 108 377 59 90 18 1 17 54 27 104 3 1
Fernando Tatis R 20 SS 110 438 60 97 19 4 18 57 40 163 16 8
Travis Jankowski L 28 CF 125 392 51 96 14 3 4 22 42 98 23 8
Franchy Cordero L 24 LF 96 362 50 89 15 5 15 53 29 144 13 4
Ty France R 24 3B 138 522 66 124 26 2 15 63 37 116 3 4
Esteban Quiroz B 27 2B 74 252 43 63 12 1 9 34 26 53 3 2
Jose Pirela B 29 2B 131 431 54 111 24 3 9 42 31 85 6 4
Michael Gettys R 23 CF 124 457 53 92 18 3 17 54 32 203 15 7
Greg Garcia L 29 2B 122 254 28 61 11 1 3 20 35 58 4 2
Chase Headley B 35 3B 123 412 50 99 19 1 7 41 45 110 4 2
Jason Vosler L 25 3B 128 470 55 98 21 2 15 50 41 158 1 1
Austin Allen L 25 C 119 460 54 109 22 1 16 56 30 125 0 2
Seth Mejias-Brean R 28 3B 124 459 48 105 16 3 8 41 35 112 4 3
Hudson Potts R 20 3B 132 514 60 107 23 2 20 63 33 192 3 1
Alex Dickerson L 29 LF 94 316 41 78 18 3 9 41 24 72 3 0
A.J. Ellis R 38 C 55 135 15 31 6 0 2 12 18 34 0 0
Boog Powell L 26 CF 78 282 36 69 9 2 3 20 30 61 9 8
Josh Naylor L 22 LF 130 518 64 130 22 2 15 62 48 98 6 4
Allen Craig R 34 1B 80 275 30 61 10 1 6 24 29 74 0 0
Javy Guerra L 23 SS 139 461 46 88 17 8 12 50 28 185 2 0
Diego Goris R 28 3B 104 372 37 86 16 1 7 37 16 92 3 2
River Stevens L 27 2B 78 270 28 61 9 2 4 23 20 55 6 3
Edward Olivares R 23 CF 130 546 62 123 21 8 12 55 25 133 13 8
Forrestt Allday R 28 RF 108 380 44 87 14 2 2 25 42 83 8 6
Webster Rivas R 28 C 59 206 19 46 8 1 3 17 11 56 1 1
Dusty Coleman R 32 3B 99 319 31 54 13 1 10 32 20 154 7 4
Connor Panas L 26 RF 106 378 40 75 12 2 11 36 27 124 3 3
Jacob Scavuzzo R 25 LF 108 398 45 88 19 1 14 46 22 137 7 2
Taylor Kohlwey L 24 RF 92 296 30 57 10 5 6 27 25 105 5 4
Allen Cordoba R 23 SS 77 203 17 39 4 2 4 17 10 66 3 5
Chris Stewart R 37 C 49 134 12 26 4 1 0 7 11 21 0 1
Luis Torrens R 23 C 129 459 44 106 25 2 6 46 24 95 1 1
Aderlin Rodriguez R 27 1B 130 499 55 117 20 2 16 59 23 132 1 1
Eguy Rosario R 19 2B 126 492 49 96 20 3 8 42 35 160 13 11
Buddy Reed B 24 LF 112 448 43 87 18 5 9 42 26 172 24 9

 

Batters – Rate Stats
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Manny Machado 686 .281 .348 .501 129 .220 .298 6.7 4 5.7 Adrian Beltre
Luis Urias 586 .246 .335 .358 90 .112 .306 4.3 8 2.7 Willy Aybar
Franmil Reyes 554 .258 .330 .474 116 .216 .316 5.6 -1 2.4 Ron Swoboda
Manuel Margot 570 .260 .308 .401 92 .141 .304 4.5 8 2.4 Marquis Grissom
Wil Myers 539 .249 .327 .462 113 .213 .315 5.7 -1 2.4 Ryan Raburn
Ian Kinsler 492 .247 .315 .383 90 .137 .264 4.4 8 2.3 Ray Durham
Hunter Renfroe 536 .249 .295 .474 105 .225 .295 5.0 4 2.1 Dante Bichette
Eric Hosmer 652 .268 .337 .425 107 .157 .313 5.3 0 2.0 Carlos May
Francisco Mejia 519 .249 .296 .398 88 .149 .289 4.2 3 1.9 Miguel Montero
Austin Hedges 384 .231 .277 .420 87 .189 .280 4.1 6 1.8 Chris Widger
Christian Villanueva 414 .239 .298 .427 95 .188 .285 4.5 1 1.5 Vinny Castilla
Fernando Tatis 486 .221 .292 .406 88 .185 .307 4.1 -1 1.5 B.J. Upton
Travis Jankowski 440 .245 .323 .327 79 .082 .317 4.0 5 1.4 Alex Cole
Franchy Cordero 395 .246 .305 .439 100 .193 .365 4.9 1 1.3 Al Martin
Ty France 586 .238 .313 .381 89 .144 .279 4.1 -3 1.3 Garrett Atkins
Esteban Quiroz 286 .250 .330 .413 102 .163 .284 4.9 0 1.2 Heinie Mueller
Jose Pirela 468 .258 .310 .390 90 .132 .303 4.4 -4 0.9 Steve Lyons
Michael Gettys 497 .201 .261 .365 69 .164 .316 3.2 8 0.9 Jeramy Laster
Greg Garcia 298 .240 .342 .327 85 .087 .301 4.0 0 0.8 Ed Giovanola
Chase Headley 467 .240 .321 .342 82 .102 .312 3.9 -2 0.7 Greg Gagne
Jason Vosler 524 .209 .282 .357 74 .149 .279 3.4 3 0.6 Tim Gillis
Austin Allen 498 .237 .289 .393 84 .157 .292 3.9 -7 0.6 Randy Knorr
Seth Mejias-Brean 502 .229 .289 .329 69 .100 .286 3.3 6 0.6 Brian Hitchcox
Hudson Potts 554 .208 .262 .377 72 .169 .288 3.4 2 0.5 Corey Smith
Alex Dickerson 349 .247 .307 .408 93 .161 .294 4.6 -2 0.4 Stu Pederson
A.J. Ellis 159 .230 .331 .319 79 .089 .293 3.7 -2 0.2 Spud Davis
Boog Powell 318 .245 .317 .323 76 .078 .303 3.4 -1 0.2 Jonathan Jay
Josh Naylor 573 .251 .318 .388 92 .137 .284 4.4 -7 0.1 Brett Roneberg
Allen Craig 309 .222 .301 .331 73 .109 .282 3.5 3 0.0 Chris Pritchett
Javy Guerra 495 .191 .237 .341 55 .150 .288 2.7 5 0.0 Yuri Sanchez
Diego Goris 392 .231 .264 .336 63 .105 .289 3.1 4 0.0 Jace Brewer
River Stevens 298 .226 .285 .319 65 .093 .270 3.2 0 -0.1 Joey Aragon
Edward Olivares 583 .225 .268 .359 70 .134 .277 3.3 -1 -0.1 Joe Mathis
Forrestt Allday 435 .229 .317 .292 69 .063 .288 3.1 2 -0.2 Mike Bucci
Webster Rivas 220 .223 .265 .316 58 .092 .293 2.9 -2 -0.3 Tony Eusebio
Dusty Coleman 346 .169 .226 .310 45 .141 .284 2.2 7 -0.4 Trace Coquillette
Connor Panas 415 .198 .265 .328 61 .130 .263 2.8 5 -0.5 Garrick Haltiwanger
Jacob Scavuzzo 428 .221 .269 .379 75 .158 .300 3.6 -3 -0.6 Steve Gibralter
Taylor Kohlwey 331 .193 .265 .321 59 .128 .276 2.7 2 -0.6 Larry Blackwell
Allen Cordoba 219 .192 .239 .291 44 .099 .263 2.0 0 -0.7 Brian Shipp
Chris Stewart 149 .194 .259 .239 38 .045 .230 1.9 -2 -0.7 Rick Ferrell
Luis Torrens 493 .231 .272 .333 65 .102 .279 3.2 -9 -0.8 Humberto Cota
Aderlin Rodriguez 532 .234 .274 .379 76 .144 .288 3.6 -2 -0.8 Danny Matienzo
Eguy Rosario 534 .195 .257 .297 51 .102 .272 2.4 -2 -1.5 Andy Sheets
Buddy Reed 481 .194 .240 .317 51 .123 .292 2.7 -2 -1.9 Julio Ramirez

 

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Joey Lucchesi L 26 9 9 3.93 26 26 128.3 125 56 16 43 128
Jesse Scholtens R 25 8 9 4.44 27 24 133.7 144 66 17 41 99
Matt Strahm L 27 5 4 3.65 43 10 79.0 70 32 10 29 91
Garrett Richards R 31 6 6 4.18 19 19 97.0 88 45 12 45 100
Dinelson Lamet R 26 7 8 4.19 22 22 105.3 97 49 14 49 120
Logan Allen L 22 9 10 4.56 25 24 130.3 127 66 17 62 122
Jacob Nix R 23 6 7 4.24 19 19 99.7 106 47 13 25 81
Chris Paddack R 23 5 5 4.07 16 16 79.7 77 36 12 19 82
Eric Lauer L 24 7 8 4.59 27 26 129.3 135 66 18 53 115
Brett Kennedy R 24 7 8 4.49 23 23 118.3 123 59 16 41 98
Robbie Erlin L 28 5 6 4.18 33 13 99.0 104 46 14 18 77
Kirby Yates R 32 4 3 3.37 59 0 56.0 45 21 8 20 79
Craig Stammen R 35 4 4 3.58 59 0 65.3 60 26 7 19 65
Luis Perdomo R 26 7 10 4.69 26 23 126.7 143 66 15 49 97
Jose Castillo L 23 5 4 3.58 58 0 60.3 49 24 6 29 75
Pedro Avila R 22 6 9 4.80 24 21 123.7 126 66 16 63 109
Dietrich Enns L 28 7 10 4.96 23 20 107.0 113 59 14 53 81
Phil Maton R 26 2 2 3.79 57 0 61.7 56 26 8 22 70
Cal Quantrill R 24 6 9 5.07 26 26 136.7 154 77 20 55 95
Bryan Mitchell R 28 4 5 4.89 23 15 88.3 97 48 11 41 61
Kazuhisa Makita R 34 2 2 3.95 46 0 54.7 55 24 6 16 43
Michel Baez R 23 6 8 4.90 20 20 93.7 96 51 13 49 85
Brad Wieck L 27 3 3 3.91 49 0 50.7 41 22 6 29 66
Emmanuel Ramirez R 24 6 8 4.83 29 15 104.3 109 56 15 47 95
Dillon Overton L 27 5 7 5.05 25 17 101.7 117 57 16 33 66
Elliot Ashbeck R 25 4 4 4.16 40 1 67.0 68 31 7 22 54
Eric Stout L 26 3 4 4.41 43 2 63.3 68 31 6 25 42
Carlos Torres R 36 4 4 4.07 51 0 59.7 58 27 7 26 55
Jonathan Aro R 28 3 3 4.24 36 0 46.7 46 22 5 20 40
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 35 2 3 4.73 31 4 51.3 49 27 8 25 51
Ryan Bollinger L 28 6 8 5.24 20 20 99.7 111 58 15 42 70
Phil Hughes R 33 3 4 5.23 20 9 63.7 75 37 14 13 47
Robert Stock R 29 2 3 4.39 55 0 65.7 64 32 7 33 63
Trevor Megill R 25 1 2 4.86 25 0 33.3 35 18 6 12 31
Carter Capps R 28 1 2 4.71 31 0 36.3 35 19 5 20 35
Trey Wingenter R 25 2 3 4.53 59 0 57.7 49 29 8 36 72
Kyle McGrath L 26 3 4 4.67 46 0 54.0 55 28 9 18 47
Travis Radke L 26 3 4 4.95 38 3 67.3 71 37 12 22 61
Andres Munoz R 20 1 2 5.66 26 0 20.7 19 13 3 21 24
Jerry Keel L 25 5 9 5.29 26 21 126.0 143 74 21 48 86
Erik Johnson R 29 5 8 5.50 24 14 90.0 97 55 16 42 76
Seth Simmons R 31 2 4 5.45 28 8 66.0 71 40 11 36 56
Gerardo Reyes R 26 2 3 5.19 45 0 52.0 50 30 6 39 50
Todd Van Steensel R 28 3 4 5.44 33 1 46.3 45 28 6 34 44
Miguel Diaz R 24 4 6 5.44 35 10 82.7 79 50 13 59 86
Tyler Higgins R 28 2 2 5.36 33 0 45.3 51 27 8 15 34
Colby Blueberg R 26 3 4 5.26 40 0 53.0 53 31 8 32 49

 

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Joey Lucchesi 549 8.98 3.02 1.12 .305 101 99 3.90 1.7 Steve Trout
Jesse Scholtens 584 6.67 2.76 1.14 .303 92 109 4.42 1.2 Ron Reed
Matt Strahm 335 10.37 3.30 1.14 .299 112 89 3.74 1.2 Steve Hamilton
Garrett Richards 420 9.28 4.18 1.11 .291 98 102 4.15 1.2 Russ Ortiz
Dinelson Lamet 461 10.25 4.19 1.20 .305 95 106 4.17 1.1 Mike Bielecki
Logan Allen 578 8.42 4.28 1.17 .297 90 111 4.56 1.0 Bill Krueger
Jacob Nix 429 7.31 2.26 1.17 .306 93 107 4.15 0.9 Rick Wise
Chris Paddack 335 9.26 2.15 1.36 .300 98 103 3.95 0.9 Jeff Weaver
Eric Lauer 574 8.00 3.69 1.25 .307 89 112 4.57 0.9 Jake Chapman
Brett Kennedy 516 7.45 3.12 1.22 .301 88 113 4.44 0.8 Shawn Hill
Robbie Erlin 414 7.00 1.64 1.27 .297 95 105 4.04 0.8 Eric Knott
Kirby Yates 233 12.70 3.21 1.29 .301 121 82 3.42 0.7 Kiko Calero
Craig Stammen 273 8.95 2.62 0.96 .294 111 90 3.52 0.6 Rick White
Luis Perdomo 569 6.89 3.48 1.07 .319 85 118 4.48 0.5 Mike LaCoss
Jose Castillo 259 11.19 4.33 0.90 .297 111 90 3.60 0.5 Buzz Oliver
Pedro Avila 559 7.93 4.58 1.16 .303 83 121 4.79 0.4 Rick Berg
Dietrich Enns 485 6.81 4.46 1.18 .299 83 121 4.99 0.3 Bill Wight
Phil Maton 262 10.22 3.21 1.17 .302 105 96 3.78 0.3 Steve Olin
Cal Quantrill 615 6.26 3.62 1.32 .306 81 124 5.02 0.3 Jake Joseph
Bryan Mitchell 400 6.22 4.18 1.12 .304 84 119 4.92 0.3 Mark Calvert
Kazuhisa Makita 234 7.08 2.63 0.99 .295 104 96 4.05 0.2 Bobby Tiefenauer
Michel Baez 425 8.17 4.71 1.25 .305 81 124 4.90 0.2 Ben Hendrickson
Brad Wieck 221 11.72 5.15 1.07 .297 102 99 3.92 0.2 Armando Almanza
Emmanuel Ramirez 468 8.19 4.05 1.29 .308 82 122 4.72 0.1 Yoel Hernandez
Dillon Overton 452 5.84 2.92 1.42 .304 81 123 5.02 0.1 Norm Montoya
Elliot Ashbeck 290 7.25 2.96 0.94 .300 95 105 4.06 0.1 Pedro Borbon
Eric Stout 281 5.97 3.55 0.85 .302 93 108 4.38 0.1 Jim Crawford
Carlos Torres 261 8.30 3.92 1.06 .298 97 103 4.24 0.1 Greg Minton
Jonathan Aro 205 7.71 3.86 0.96 .297 97 104 4.24 0.1 Phil Niekro
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. 226 8.94 4.38 1.40 .293 87 116 4.77 0.0 Don Aase
Ryan Bollinger 450 6.32 3.79 1.35 .303 78 128 5.15 0.0 Dave Otto
Phil Hughes 275 6.64 1.84 1.98 .305 78 128 5.19 -0.1 Don Wengert
Robert Stock 292 8.63 4.52 0.96 .306 90 111 4.26 -0.1 Mike Bumstead
Trevor Megill 147 8.37 3.24 1.62 .302 84 119 4.89 -0.2 John Doherty
Carter Capps 163 8.67 4.95 1.24 .297 84 119 4.83 -0.2 Newt Kimball
Trey Wingenter 258 11.24 5.62 1.25 .295 88 114 4.49 -0.2 Brad Voyles
Kyle McGrath 233 7.83 3.00 1.50 .293 85 118 4.69 -0.3 Bob Baxter
Travis Radke 294 8.15 2.94 1.60 .303 80 125 4.81 -0.4 Mark Lee
Andres Munoz 102 10.45 9.15 1.31 .302 70 143 5.91 -0.4 Jeff Smith
Jerry Keel 567 6.14 3.43 1.50 .302 75 133 5.28 -0.4 Jason Dickson
Erik Johnson 406 7.60 4.20 1.60 .302 74 134 5.31 -0.4 John Kelly
Seth Simmons 304 7.64 4.91 1.50 .305 73 138 5.44 -0.5 Joe Coleman
Gerardo Reyes 245 8.65 6.75 1.04 .301 79 127 5.21 -0.5 Heathcliff Slocumb
Todd Van Steensel 218 8.55 6.60 1.17 .298 75 133 5.33 -0.5 Jake Robbins
Miguel Diaz 384 9.36 6.42 1.42 .297 73 137 5.40 -0.6 Lee Smith
Tyler Higgins 202 6.75 2.98 1.59 .303 74 135 5.14 -0.6 Eric Moody
Colby Blueberg 243 8.32 5.43 1.36 .298 75 133 5.24 -0.7 Mike Zimmerman

 

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in Triple-A or .300 in Double-A, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Spitball McPhee
Member
Spitball McPhee

I think they are perfect for a Buddy System type pitching arrangement for at least 2 rotation spots. A lot of young talent who may struggle third time through the order/lack 3rd pitch consistency and you want to be careful with their innings as they develop. More ~100 innings guys than 200 and 60 innings; that is the near-future/present I think.

CC AFC
Member
Member
CC AFC

Only if they can be called “accountabili-buddies”

avoidiam
Member
avoidiam

Agree 100% and would love to see it.