2019 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers.

Batters

Perhaps the biggest disappointment in last year’s projections (and in 2018, really) was the several steps taken backward by Willie Calhoun. Originally, it was believed he would only be in the minors temporarily to beat up minor league pitchers while some service time shenanigans resolved themselves. Problem was, Calhoun never really earned a callup, struggling to hit Triple-A pitchers and only besting an .800 OPS in a single month of the season, a July that was driven by a .364 batting average. The Rangers brought him up when there was obvious playing time for him, but hitting .222/.269/.333 in 108 plate appearances was hardly a strong push for a full-time job. Even ignoring the cameo role in the majors, Calhoun’s power was mostly gone in the minors, which is not good. To be a decent starting left fielder in the majors, you have to be a batting average/on-base percentage deity or be a legitimate all-world talent on defense. Calhoun is neither. I wouldn’t write him off yet, but I’m very worried.

I’m a little surprised that Texas either couldn’t or wouldn’t close a deal with another team for Shin-Soo Choo, a player whose presence required a losing Rangers team to carry a significant salary after Choo turned in a solid little year and had some trade value. Choo is quickly approaching age 40, and until Nomar Mazara actually turns his impressive raw power into actual counting numbers, Joey Gallo is the only really dependable Rangers hitter. Gallo is what he is, and will likely always have an abysmal batting average. He’s fortunate to not have been born 30 years earlier.

One projection that intrigues me is Christian Lopes’, who was a third-tier prospect for the Blue Jays a very long time ago with a fairly mature approach at the plate coming out of high school. It never really manifested itself in the stats, however, and the knock was that he didn’t have a standout tool otherwise. But he’s made great strides the last couple years and has gotten to the point where he may be a pretty interesting role player, with Texas using him at a lot of positions in the minors.

Pitchers

You can see the skinny rebuild in progress in the Rangers’ rotation. You have a number of OK-ish starters (excluding Yohander Mendez, who ZiPS hates with the fire of a thousand suns), probably none of whom will be part of the next good Rangers team. Drew Smyly, Edinson Volquez, and Shelby Miller are essentially reclamation projects, and at three years and $30 million, Lance Lynn may be the last of the quintet “out” of Texas (Mike Minor is there, too), but if the recovery in his peripherals in 2018 isn’t a fluke, Texas may get a real prospect for him.

ZiPS is a believer in Jose Leclerc at the front of the bullpen, and sees the rest of the group as a fairly boring but quite adequate relief corps, which is fine with the Rangers not seriously contending yet.

Bench and Prospects

One of the most interesting Rangers projections is that of Brock Burke, a former Rays third-rounder who the Rays brought around very slowly out of high school. 2018 was the year in which everything clicked, with Burke seeing a 30% bump in his strikeout rate while also being promoted, striking out almost 12 batters a game for Montgomery. ZiPS doesn’t give him a huge ceiling, but is surprisingly confident in Burke being a mid-rotation starter despite only him only having limited playing time in Double-A.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Joey Gallo L 25 LF 142 436 85 93 19 3 40 84 78 202 7 2
Adrian Beltre R 40 3B 101 369 40 98 18 1 12 55 30 76 1 0
Elvis Andrus R 30 SS 132 511 69 139 29 4 10 54 37 81 13 7
Rougned Odor L 25 2B 148 551 82 137 28 4 24 77 38 141 13 10
Shin-Soo Choo L 36 DH 123 464 71 116 21 1 17 55 68 129 6 2
Nomar Mazara L 24 RF 144 536 65 140 25 3 23 88 46 129 1 1
Christian Lopes R 26 2B 120 434 55 111 23 2 9 45 46 85 12 5
Patrick Wisdom R 27 3B 125 418 56 96 21 2 16 60 37 145 8 3
Nolan Fontana L 28 SS 92 299 40 62 15 2 6 29 50 99 6 3
Tommy Joseph R 27 1B 117 411 52 107 23 0 21 69 26 99 0 0
Willie Calhoun L 24 LF 145 545 71 146 31 2 22 74 37 81 3 1
Ronald Guzman L 24 1B 131 454 56 112 20 3 15 58 39 127 2 1
Danny Santana B 28 CF 103 324 43 79 18 4 10 40 15 89 12 6
Chase d’Arnaud R 32 2B 106 340 44 82 15 3 9 39 29 90 13 4
Delino DeShields R 26 CF 118 380 66 90 16 3 4 26 48 104 25 7
Andy Ibanez R 26 3B 122 466 53 116 22 2 11 46 32 82 4 5
Carlos Perez R 28 C 76 250 27 58 14 1 7 32 17 52 2 1
Jett Bandy R 29 C 82 263 30 58 14 0 9 32 14 61 2 0
Isiah Kiner-Falefa R 24 C 122 441 50 111 20 2 4 35 34 81 9 6
Anderson Tejeda L 21 SS 125 476 59 109 19 4 15 54 36 171 8 6
Jack Reinheimer R 26 SS 114 417 49 98 16 2 5 34 35 104 14 6
Hunter Cole R 26 RF 107 404 47 96 19 3 13 48 31 128 2 3
Ryan Rua R 29 LF 89 247 32 54 9 1 9 26 17 88 6 1
Leody Taveras B 20 CF 138 551 61 132 18 6 8 43 41 121 15 12
Jeff Mathis R 36 C 56 166 13 32 7 1 2 15 14 58 0 0
Tony Sanchez R 31 C 67 233 27 54 11 1 5 25 20 64 1 1
Josh Morgan R 23 C 95 363 39 87 16 2 4 29 23 64 2 1
Jose Trevino R 26 C 89 347 35 76 13 1 6 31 14 58 1 2
Charles Leblanc R 23 2B 126 464 52 110 21 3 9 45 38 121 5 3
Carlos Tocci R 23 CF 130 382 40 98 14 6 1 28 23 93 4 7
Nick Noonan L 30 SS 89 304 30 69 14 1 4 28 16 80 2 2
Jose Cardona R 25 CF 111 425 47 101 15 1 8 35 26 82 11 9
Cliff Pennington B 35 SS 91 234 24 48 8 1 2 16 25 67 2 1
Scott Heineman R 26 RF 118 479 59 118 22 3 11 46 34 128 12 8
Michael De Leon R 22 SS 140 515 46 124 21 1 4 37 18 80 2 2
Destin Hood R 29 RF 108 384 44 86 18 2 14 48 24 130 5 3
Yonny Hernandez B 21 SS 116 390 46 86 13 2 2 26 48 95 31 16
Eliezer Alvarez B 24 LF 108 408 50 92 20 4 9 41 34 141 20 5
Eli White R 25 2B 122 484 55 113 24 4 6 40 40 146 10 6
Yanio Perez R 23 1B 96 365 39 84 12 1 8 32 25 105 2 1
Michael O’Neill R 27 CF 122 439 46 92 19 2 10 39 29 157 18 6
Preston Beck L 28 1B 109 404 43 92 17 3 7 37 29 104 2 3
Correlle Prime R 25 1B 86 292 27 56 11 1 6 23 17 129 3 4

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Joey Gallo .213 .343 .546 127 .333 .273 6.5 -7 2.2 Adam Dunn
Adrian Beltre .266 .324 .417 92 .152 .306 5.0 6 1.5 Mike Lowell
Elvis Andrus .272 .322 .403 88 .131 .307 4.8 -2 1.2 Marco Scutaro
Rougned Odor .249 .307 .445 93 .196 .293 4.8 -2 1.2 Steve Buechele
Shin-Soo Choo .250 .355 .409 100 .159 .311 5.3 0 1.1 Bill White
Nomar Mazara .261 .323 .448 99 .187 .305 5.3 -1 1.0 Adam Lind
Christian Lopes .256 .330 .380 86 .124 .300 4.6 -1 0.8 Tim Dulin
Patrick Wisdom .230 .297 .404 81 .175 .311 4.3 3 0.8 Jim Chamblee
Nolan Fontana .207 .322 .331 72 .124 .289 3.6 1 0.5 Lauro Felix
Tommy Joseph .260 .309 .470 100 .209 .296 5.3 -3 0.4 Nate Gold
Willie Calhoun .268 .317 .453 99 .185 .281 5.3 -7 0.4 Mike Greenwell
Ronald Guzman .247 .314 .403 86 .156 .311 4.5 4 0.4 Juan Tejeda
Danny Santana .244 .279 .417 79 .173 .307 4.1 1 0.3 Randy Kutcher
Chase d’Arnaud .241 .306 .382 79 .141 .303 4.3 -2 0.2 Royce Clayton
Delino DeShields .237 .325 .326 72 .089 .316 4.1 -1 0.2 Deron McCue
Andy Ibanez .249 .300 .376 75 .127 .282 3.9 1 0.2 Pete Rose Jr.
Carlos Perez .232 .281 .380 71 .148 .267 3.8 0 0.2 Jim Horner
Jett Bandy .221 .283 .376 71 .156 .254 3.8 -1 0.1 Scott Servais
Isiah Kiner-Falefa .252 .315 .333 71 .082 .301 3.7 -4 0.0 Rafael Pujols
Anderson Tejeda .229 .284 .380 72 .151 .324 3.7 -2 0.0 Bert Pena
Jack Reinheimer .235 .296 .319 62 .084 .302 3.4 2 -0.1 Drew Meyer
Hunter Cole .238 .293 .396 78 .158 .316 4.0 3 -0.1 Mike Diaz
Ryan Rua .219 .276 .372 68 .154 .300 3.7 3 -0.1 Cory Aldridge
Leody Taveras .240 .292 .338 64 .098 .294 3.3 6 -0.2 Julio Peguero
Jeff Mathis .193 .258 .283 42 .090 .283 2.4 4 -0.2 Frank Charles
Tony Sanchez .232 .298 .352 70 .120 .299 3.6 -4 -0.3 Mike DiFelice
Josh Morgan .240 .291 .328 62 .088 .281 3.4 -2 -0.3 Chad Strickland
Jose Trevino .219 .250 .314 47 .095 .247 2.6 6 -0.4 Rogelio Arias
Charles Leblanc .237 .295 .353 69 .116 .302 3.7 -2 -0.4 Brad Harman
Carlos Tocci .257 .306 .332 68 .076 .337 3.4 0 -0.4 Darren Lewis
Nick Noonan .227 .266 .319 53 .092 .295 2.9 1 -0.6 Kevin Baez
Jose Cardona .238 .285 .334 62 .096 .278 3.2 1 -0.6 Joey Aragon
Cliff Pennington .205 .281 .274 47 .068 .279 2.6 0 -0.6 Rabbit Warstler
Scott Heineman .246 .305 .374 77 .127 .315 4.0 -2 -0.6 Mike Berger
Michael De Leon .241 .268 .309 51 .068 .278 2.9 6 -0.7 Mario Diaz
Destin Hood .224 .271 .391 70 .167 .300 3.6 0 -0.7 Scott Wade
Yonny Hernandez .221 .312 .279 57 .059 .287 3.0 -4 -0.8 Nick Punto
Eliezer Alvarez .225 .290 .360 69 .135 .322 3.9 -3 -0.8 Thomas Howard
Eli White .233 .298 .337 66 .103 .322 3.5 -5 -0.9 Caonabo Cosme
Yanio Perez .230 .286 .334 62 .104 .302 3.4 0 -1.2 Jason Restko
Michael O’Neill .210 .266 .330 55 .121 .301 3.1 -7 -1.6 Jamie Sykes
Preston Beck .228 .283 .337 62 .109 .290 3.2 -3 -1.7 Greg Creek
Correlle Prime .192 .240 .298 40 .106 .318 2.2 2 -1.7 Eli Tintor

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Lance Lynn R 32 10 9 4.50 28 27 146.0 154 73 19 65 126
Mike Minor L 31 9 8 4.49 24 24 132.3 133 66 20 37 108
Jose Leclerc R 25 4 2 3.13 61 0 63.3 45 22 3 39 85
Brock Burke L 22 8 7 4.77 25 23 128.3 143 68 16 54 99
Martin Perez L 28 8 7 4.76 26 22 128.7 146 68 14 46 77
Drew Smyly L 30 6 5 4.73 20 20 99.0 105 52 19 32 97
Jesse Chavez R 35 4 2 3.99 57 0 76.7 76 34 11 20 71
Brett Martin L 24 6 6 4.92 26 15 89.7 99 49 10 39 66
Yovani Gallardo R 33 8 8 5.22 26 24 122.3 139 71 16 54 77
Adrian Sampson R 27 7 7 5.12 32 21 128.3 155 73 21 26 74
Shelby Miller R 28 6 6 5.08 17 16 83.3 92 47 13 31 70
Chris Martin R 33 3 2 3.74 44 0 43.3 46 18 4 11 35
Tony Barnette R 35 2 1 3.59 38 0 42.7 41 17 3 13 39
Phillips Valdez R 27 6 6 5.08 29 18 111.7 129 63 14 47 73
Matt Bush R 33 3 2 3.83 44 0 44.7 42 19 5 18 43
Doug Fister R 35 6 6 5.00 17 15 86.3 98 48 13 29 56
Clayton Blackburn R 26 5 5 5.03 18 16 87.7 103 49 13 26 58
Kyle Bird L 26 3 3 4.72 45 4 68.7 72 36 8 35 57
Jeffrey Springs L 26 5 5 4.98 44 6 86.7 87 48 15 42 92
Deolis Guerra R 30 3 2 4.31 42 2 54.3 55 26 8 16 50
Jeanmar Gomez R 31 4 3 4.32 54 0 58.3 64 28 6 20 42
Ariel Jurado R 23 8 10 5.57 28 25 145.3 183 90 23 38 65
Edinson Volquez R 35 4 4 5.14 12 12 63.0 70 36 8 32 44
Luke Farrell R 28 6 6 5.34 29 16 91.0 99 54 16 46 81
Nick Gardewine R 25 2 2 4.08 30 0 35.3 34 16 3 15 33
Taylor Hearn L 24 5 6 5.37 23 23 107.3 113 64 18 57 98
Drew Hutchison R 28 6 7 5.52 26 19 109.3 124 67 19 47 85
Joe Palumbo L 24 3 3 5.14 12 11 49.0 54 28 8 20 36
Jonathan Hernandez R 22 7 8 5.57 22 22 103.3 113 64 15 62 83
Michael Tonkin R 29 2 2 4.62 43 0 50.7 52 26 8 20 52
Ricardo Rodriguez R 26 3 3 4.87 45 2 57.3 62 31 8 20 46
Ronald Herrera R 24 5 6 5.42 17 17 91.3 110 55 13 36 46
Connor Sadzeck R 27 3 3 4.74 57 0 49.3 48 26 5 31 47
Tim Dillard R 35 3 3 4.78 25 2 43.3 47 23 5 21 29
Jordan Romano R 26 4 6 5.38 14 14 68.0 71 41 11 32 52
Wei-Chieh Huang R 25 4 5 5.14 38 2 70.0 71 40 11 38 68
Eddie Butler R 28 5 6 5.49 30 14 95.0 114 58 14 38 52
Miguel Del Pozo L 26 3 3 4.97 34 0 41.7 45 23 4 22 32
C.D. Pelham L 24 2 2 5.17 54 0 55.7 57 32 5 39 45
Chris Rowley R 28 7 9 5.85 26 20 120.0 143 78 22 50 72
Wes Benjamin L 25 5 7 6.00 20 19 87.0 106 58 18 34 58
Richelson Pena R 25 6 8 5.96 23 18 108.7 135 72 24 30 65
Jack Leathersich L 28 1 2 5.34 38 0 32.0 28 19 3 31 37
Adam Parks R 26 3 3 5.48 34 0 46.0 51 28 9 19 39
Zac Curtis L 26 3 3 5.28 56 0 59.7 59 35 9 40 60
Tim Lincecum R 35 1 2 5.55 24 0 24.3 27 15 4 15 19
Adam Loewen L 35 3 3 5.40 42 0 45.0 41 27 5 40 47
Kevin Jepsen R 34 2 2 5.81 36 0 31.0 33 20 6 16 23
Chris Tillman R 31 6 8 6.12 22 21 100.0 118 68 17 50 59
Brandon Mann L 35 3 4 5.80 36 3 54.3 59 35 9 32 41
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 34 5 6 6.16 25 16 99.3 120 68 23 34 69
Ariel Hernandez R 27 3 4 5.74 47 0 53.3 51 34 5 56 50
Rafael Montero R 28 5 7 6.04 26 17 98.3 117 66 18 55 79
Locke St. John L 26 4 5 5.93 37 0 54.7 60 36 12 28 49
Collin Wiles R 25 6 8 6.31 21 20 107.0 135 75 26 28 65
Yohander Mendez L 24 6 9 6.63 30 26 130.3 158 96 33 55 92
Yoel Espinal R 26 3 5 7.29 42 2 54.3 59 44 12 55 52

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Lance Lynn 652 7.77 4.01 1.17 .310 100 100 4.57 1.8 Bill Singer
Mike Minor 561 7.35 2.52 1.36 .288 100 100 4.41 1.7 Jarrod Washburn
Jose Leclerc 273 12.08 5.54 0.43 .294 148 67 3.07 1.6 Jose Valverde
Brock Burke 580 6.94 3.79 1.12 .315 97 103 4.68 1.5 Jake Chapman
Martin Perez 570 5.39 3.22 0.98 .307 98 103 4.51 1.5 Jim O’Toole
Drew Smyly 429 8.82 2.91 1.73 .308 98 102 4.72 1.2 Cliff Lee
Jesse Chavez 322 8.33 2.35 1.29 .297 116 86 3.98 1.0 Terry Leach
Brett Martin 405 6.62 3.91 1.00 .312 94 106 4.60 0.9 Josh Shortslef
Yovani Gallardo 552 5.66 3.97 1.18 .305 89 113 4.96 0.9 Spec Shea
Adrian Sampson 562 5.19 1.82 1.47 .309 88 114 4.90 0.8 John Doherty
Shelby Miller 369 7.56 3.35 1.40 .312 91 109 4.69 0.7 Jay Tibbs
Chris Martin 186 7.27 2.28 0.83 .313 124 81 3.63 0.7 Bobby Tiefenauer
Tony Barnette 181 8.23 2.74 0.63 .306 129 77 3.29 0.7 Barney Schultz
Phillips Valdez 509 5.88 3.79 1.13 .313 89 113 4.92 0.7 Bill Swift
Matt Bush 193 8.66 3.63 1.01 .296 121 83 4.02 0.7 Jim Hughes
Doug Fister 384 5.84 3.02 1.36 .302 90 111 4.99 0.6 Freddie Fitzsimmons
Clayton Blackburn 389 5.95 2.67 1.33 .313 89 112 4.78 0.6 Lary Sorensen
Kyle Bird 312 7.47 4.59 1.05 .308 98 102 4.71 0.6 Pete Cappadona
Jeffrey Springs 388 9.55 4.36 1.56 .308 93 107 4.90 0.5 J.C. Romero
Deolis Guerra 232 8.28 2.65 1.33 .301 104 96 4.22 0.5 Jay Tessmer
Jeanmar Gomez 256 6.48 3.09 0.93 .312 104 96 4.18 0.5 Frank Linzy
Ariel Jurado 650 4.03 2.35 1.42 .309 83 120 5.22 0.5 Bill King
Edinson Volquez 288 6.29 4.57 1.14 .307 90 111 5.02 0.5 Tommy Byrne
Luke Farrell 416 8.01 4.55 1.58 .310 87 115 5.34 0.5 Mike Buddie
Nick Gardewine 155 8.41 3.82 0.76 .304 114 88 3.83 0.4 Mike Hansen
Taylor Hearn 490 8.22 4.78 1.51 .305 84 119 5.26 0.4 Phil Dumatrait
Drew Hutchison 498 7.00 3.87 1.56 .309 84 119 5.34 0.4 Kevin Hodges
Joe Palumbo 220 6.61 3.67 1.47 .301 90 111 5.21 0.4 Kason Gabbard
Jonathan Hernandez 483 7.23 5.40 1.31 .309 83 120 5.40 0.4 Ben Hendrickson
Michael Tonkin 223 9.24 3.55 1.42 .312 100 100 4.45 0.3 Mark Small
Ricardo Rodriguez 253 7.22 3.14 1.26 .307 95 105 4.56 0.3 Robert Tenenini
Ronald Herrera 417 4.53 3.55 1.28 .306 83 121 5.34 0.3 Joe Coleman
Connor Sadzeck 227 8.57 5.66 0.91 .305 98 102 4.63 0.3 Joe Hudson
Tim Dillard 197 6.02 4.36 1.04 .300 94 106 4.90 0.3 Hal White
Jordan Romano 309 6.88 4.24 1.46 .290 82 122 5.44 0.2 Ken Pumphrey
Wei-Chieh Huang 318 8.74 4.89 1.41 .305 90 111 5.05 0.2 Marc Pisciotta
Eddie Butler 433 4.93 3.60 1.33 .308 82 122 5.30 0.1 Marino Pieretti
Miguel Del Pozo 192 6.91 4.75 0.86 .313 90 111 4.66 0.1 Brian Adams
C.D. Pelham 263 7.28 6.31 0.81 .306 90 112 5.02 0.1 Mike Venafro
Chris Rowley 550 5.40 3.75 1.65 .303 79 126 5.76 0.1 Dana Kiecker
Wes Benjamin 399 6.00 3.52 1.86 .310 77 129 5.85 -0.1 Jason Cromer
Richelson Pena 488 5.38 2.48 1.99 .306 78 129 5.82 -0.1 Ryan Cox
Jack Leathersich 155 10.41 8.72 0.84 .305 84 119 5.15 -0.1 Mike Kinnunen
Adam Parks 208 7.63 3.72 1.76 .304 85 118 5.43 -0.1 Brian Wolfe
Zac Curtis 279 9.05 6.03 1.36 .303 85 117 5.36 -0.1 Scott Wiggins
Tim Lincecum 114 7.03 5.55 1.48 .307 81 123 5.70 -0.1 Jerry Johnson
Adam Loewen 216 9.40 8.00 1.00 .298 83 120 5.37 -0.1 Marshall Bridges
Kevin Jepsen 140 6.68 4.65 1.74 .284 80 125 5.73 -0.2 Ray Moore
Chris Tillman 464 5.31 4.50 1.53 .302 76 132 5.80 -0.2 Dick Fowler
Brandon Mann 254 6.79 5.30 1.49 .298 78 129 5.78 -0.3 Johnny Klippstein
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 450 6.25 3.08 2.08 .305 75 133 5.98 -0.3 Jared Fernandez
Ariel Hernandez 266 8.44 9.45 0.84 .303 78 128 5.81 -0.3 Hal Reniff
Rafael Montero 464 7.23 5.03 1.65 .321 74 134 5.72 -0.3 Ben Ford
Locke St. John 251 8.07 4.61 1.98 .302 78 128 5.91 -0.4 Chad Miles
Collin Wiles 481 5.47 2.36 2.19 .306 74 136 6.05 -0.4 John Gardner
Yohander Mendez 601 6.35 3.80 2.28 .302 70 143 6.46 -1.0 Doug Lindsey
Yoel Espinal 277 8.61 9.11 1.99 .305 64 157 7.36 -1.1 Earl Sanders

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2019 ZiPS Projections – Texas Rangers by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Kevbot034
Member
Kevbot034

Be so disappointing if Nomar doesn’t improve by more than .1 WAR this year. He made a lot of improvements last year, and also regressed in some areas. But if the defense is bad instead of atrocious like it was in 18, the hr/fb rate can go with him elevating more balls, he could really be good still. He’ll be 24 all year. I still have high hopes, even if I maybe shouldn’t at this point.

snapper
Member
Member
snapper

The thing is Mazara has never hit at the level that suggests above average major leaguer. His minor league numbers are OK, but he got tons of credit for being real young for every level. He’s never put the actual stats on the board.

Kevbot034
Member
Kevbot034

You’re right, but I still wanna believe haha

Slappytheclown
Member
Member
Slappytheclown

Cutch improved his contact percentage and became a star. JD and Bautista, well we know what they did. It is always possible for a player to improve, especially one under 30. Don’t stop believing!!

Nats Fan
Member
Nats Fan

You don’t give up on a hitter until he hits age 27. Mazara still has time. Judge him at 26 as he might bloom late.

MonkeyEpoxy
Member
Member
MonkeyEpoxy

Hopefully the new coaching staff can impress upon him to HIT THE BALL IN THE FREAKING AIR