2020 ZiPS Projections: Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox.

Batters

Last winter, my job was to temper expectations, noting that while the Red Sox had just won 108 games and the World Series, their baseline expectation was absolutely not 100 wins, and indeed, that they were a team with significant holes and depth issues. Now, it’s the opposite; people’s feelings about the Red Sox have taken a harsher turn than when Hulk Hogan turned on Macho Man Randy Savage in 1996. A lot went wrong in 2019, more than you’d expect in a typical season, and the roster justified more than their lackluster 84-78.

Naturally, there’s a “but” involved. The Red Sox have spent the winter trying to offload Mookie Betts to save money. It should go without saying, but this would be a serious hit to their 2020 hopes. While it might be tempting to compare the loss of Betts to Washington’s loss Bryce Harper — a loss the Nationals survived — Washington was able to essentially replace Harper’s production with Victor Robles and Juan Soto. Mookie Betts is a better player than Harper, and Robles and Soto are better than anyone the Red Sox have. The team could pick up a major league outfielder in a Betts trade, of course, but even an average player would still be a four-win hit from the Betts expectation.

And that’s a big deal. Boston’s not a 100-win team dropping to 96 wins in this scenario; they’re more like a 92-win team dropping to an 88-win one. The latter fall constitutes a much larger change in the trajectory of their fate. It also assumes they pick up a two-win player — someone like Manuel Margot — in such a trade. They may not, and Boston’s lack of depth means the internal options are far worse. ZiPS projects Jackie Bradley Jr. to be the team’s third-best outfielder. Now, keep scrolling until you get to the projected fourth-best outfielder, Jarren Duran, a speedy center fielder without enough defense to be compelling yet.

Now, not every outfield option is listed as being an outfielder, but those options are no more exciting. You could stick Michael Chavis in right and José Peraza at second, but if you were a kid and saw that combo in a toy store window, would you include it on a list to Santa? J.D. Martinez can theoretically play the outfield, but he’s a lousy defensive outfielder and the team doesn’t have Edwin Encarnación or a Cron brother hanging around.

The rest of the team’s front-end lineup talent remains wonderful. Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers are both stars, and Andrew Benintendi, despite not really cashing in on baseball’s new orbit of Planet Home Run, is at least solid and retains significant upside. Bradley inevitably plays like a Double-A journeyman for six weeks every season, but somehow ends up with the same Jackie Bradley Average Season every year. The catching position is in its best state in years thanks to the team finally dissolving The World’s Most Disappointing Cerberus and letting Christian Vazquez roll with the job, rather than benching him at the first sign of an offensive slump.

The team’s determination to reset its luxury tax penalties has left it in a place where the front office has left first base on autopilot. Like that mediocre relationship two people keep going back to because “Hey, we already have the house keys and know which cereal the other likes,” Mitch Moreland will return for a fourth season for some reason.

I feel kind of sorry for poor Rusney Castillo. No, he’s not suffering any hardships, as he’s getting paid his $70-plus million, but he could probably help the Red Sox as a fourth or fifth outfielder, but won’t get the chance, since the Red Sox would have to count him towards the luxury tax if he went back onto the 40-man roster. So Rusney persists as an unfortunate loophole.

Pitchers

ZiPS will remain a believer in Chris Sale until he proves otherwise, so while I would take the under on his WAR, I can understand the computer still retaining most of its silicon love for him. The primary problem with the rotation is that while it looks pretty good on paper — at least the top three starters — if something goes wrong, it will go wrong and quickly, and the Red Sox could go from being moderately happy with their situation to desperately trying to find Edwin Jackson’s cell phone number.

It’s strange to think about, but this was a team that could have really used Rick Porcello, who is at least somewhat durable. And as horrifying as it sounds, even Andrew Cashner returning had some merit given the contours of the roster. A healthy
Nathan Eovaldi would go a long way, as he was a mess last year; unsurprisingly, ZiPS is suspicious of a pitcher who saw his walk rate triple, no matter the reason for it. The computer’s also not banking on Martín Pérez returning to first-half 2019 form, but I guess it’s possible the Red Sox figure out how to get his cutter to cut mustard again rather than cheese.

All bets are off on if David Price is included in a Betts trade or is dealt in a standalone one. Losing Betts and Price may be fatal to the team’s realistic playoff hopes.

The bullpen, on the other hand, looks like a relatively deep, stable group, even if one devoid of Big Names. Boston appear to have won the gamble when they chose not to retain Craig Kimbrel or Joe Kelly, but the pen mostly survived, rather than actually replacing that lost production. ZiPS thinks every reliever in the pen, with the exception of Darwinzon Hernandez, is likely to be average or better. Hernandez’s projection isn’t even awful, and is one of the best projections ZiPS has ever churned out for a pitcher who issues so many walks. It’s not such a deep bullpen that it can’t fall apart, but it’s likely more stable than the rotation is.

Prospects

The sparseness of this section is a reflection on just how weak Boston’s farm system is. A team can survive without spending money. A team can survive without a farm system. A team can’t survive without both. With minimal talent coming in through either route, the front office has few short-term options other than hoping the core erodes slowly enough for one problem or the other to resolve itself.

ZiPS does like Triston Casas, and in terms of projected career WAR remaining, he’s the sixth ranked first baseman among the 20 teams that have had their ZiPS writeups so far, behind Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Miguel Sanó, and Josh Bell. Now, baseball’s not exactly flooded with top-notch first base prospects these days, but he’s the most valuable asset in the organization. ZiPS also sees an interesting ceiling for Bryan Mata, thinks that C.J. Chatham might be OK at short, and that Duran will be a reasonable fourth outfielder if things break the right way.

And that’s it, at least the part of the farm system that’s relevant on a projection level. There are more prospects in the very low minors and it would be surprising if they all ended up without big league careers, but when looking at the middle and upper minors, where ZiPS easily has the most value, there just isn’t much there there.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mookie Betts R 27 RF 695 599 124 177 43 4 30 92 85 98 22 4
Xander Bogaerts R 27 SS 677 601 102 173 42 2 27 104 66 120 8 2
Rafael Devers L 23 3B 678 624 112 182 44 3 33 110 48 119 9 6
J.D. Martinez R 32 DH 597 528 87 154 32 2 33 100 61 141 3 1
Andrew Benintendi L 25 LF 645 568 83 153 38 5 16 79 64 126 14 4
Christian Vazquez R 29 C 449 417 52 110 22 1 13 48 26 80 5 2
Jackie Bradley Jr. L 30 CF 535 471 68 111 26 4 19 64 50 138 9 4
Brock Holt! L 32 2B 347 303 39 80 16 2 6 37 35 70 4 4
José Peraza R 26 2B 546 509 58 140 24 4 8 50 23 74 16 8
Michael Chavis R 24 2B 470 429 57 104 22 1 23 69 34 146 3 1
Bobby Dalbec R 25 3B 524 465 58 102 21 1 21 59 46 187 4 5
Mitch Moreland L 34 1B 403 360 48 86 20 1 16 59 37 93 1 0
Kevin Plawecki R 29 C 278 248 27 61 15 1 6 34 22 51 0 1
Dustin Pedroia R 36 2B 357 323 40 86 15 0 5 36 30 44 2 2
Jarren Duran L 23 CF 555 517 57 138 21 7 5 39 29 120 31 11
Tzu-Wei Lin L 26 SS 348 320 36 77 15 2 5 26 25 81 7 5
Rusney Castillo R 32 RF 463 439 50 119 25 1 8 44 18 71 7 6
John Andreoli R 30 LF 477 413 54 89 20 3 10 44 57 143 13 4
Chad de la Guerra L 27 SS 366 335 40 75 16 2 10 37 25 108 3 2
Jantzen Witte R 30 3B 426 392 43 94 22 1 7 37 27 97 5 4
Tommy Joseph R 28 1B 417 385 46 94 23 0 18 63 23 103 0 0
Jett Bandy R 30 C 272 248 27 51 12 0 9 29 13 69 1 1
Tony Renda R 29 3B 293 273 30 71 17 1 4 26 15 42 6 2
Steve Pearce R 37 1B 172 151 19 33 8 0 5 21 15 45 0 0
Josh Ockimey L 24 1B 493 425 57 89 20 2 18 54 61 172 0 2
C.J. Chatham R 25 SS 483 458 43 117 22 2 5 36 17 109 6 3
Juan Centeno L 30 C 302 277 27 68 14 1 3 26 17 50 2 0
Triston Casas L 20 1B 516 467 57 101 23 3 18 62 40 158 3 3
Josh Tobias B 27 2B 358 326 34 76 16 1 5 30 20 90 4 6
Cole Sturgeon L 28 LF 406 378 38 90 16 2 7 34 20 97 6 3
Nick Longhi R 24 1B 408 378 40 86 20 2 9 43 23 113 0 1
Marcus Wilson R 23 CF 482 437 53 93 23 2 15 51 37 175 11 6
Austin Rei R 26 C 280 249 24 44 12 0 4 20 23 98 1 2
Gorkys Hernández R 32 CF 485 436 53 96 19 2 10 41 38 137 13 6
Edgar Corcino R 28 RF 364 338 37 81 17 3 8 37 20 94 2 3
Bryce Brentz R 31 LF 362 333 40 70 18 0 14 45 25 125 1 1
Garrett Benge L 24 3B 359 326 32 66 13 1 4 24 30 123 4 4
Jonathan Arauz B 21 SS 508 470 49 99 23 4 11 47 33 110 6 7
Brett Netzer L 24 2B 506 466 44 98 22 2 6 37 30 152 3 5
Juremi Profar R 24 1B 483 454 45 105 22 1 9 43 25 86 0 2
Ryan Fitzgerald L 26 SS 488 449 45 98 17 4 5 38 32 137 6 8
Marco Hernandez L 27 2B 358 340 38 84 17 1 4 26 12 82 4 4
Pedro Castellanos R 22 1B 494 468 48 113 23 2 8 46 15 92 7 7
Tate Matheny R 26 RF 420 391 37 78 16 2 5 31 21 155 11 8

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Mookie Betts .295 .383 .531 137 .235 .312 8.1 11 6.0 Al Kaline
Xander Bogaerts .288 .360 .499 123 .211 .322 6.9 -5 4.5 Cal Ripken
Rafael Devers .292 .344 .530 125 .239 .316 6.9 -3 4.2 Ryan Zimmerman
J.D. Martinez .292 .365 .547 136 .256 .342 7.6 0 3.7 Tony Perez
Andrew Benintendi .269 .345 .438 105 .169 .322 5.7 4 2.4 David DeJesus
Christian Vazquez .264 .309 .415 88 .151 .299 4.7 9 2.3 Dan Wilson
Jackie Bradley Jr. .236 .320 .429 95 .193 .293 4.9 2 1.8 Ricky Ledee
Brock Holt! .264 .349 .389 95 .125 .326 4.8 -1 1.0 Wally Backman
José Peraza .275 .315 .385 83 .110 .309 4.5 0 0.9 Placido Polanco
Michael Chavis .242 .304 .459 97 .217 .312 5.0 -7 0.9 Bret Boone
Bobby Dalbec .219 .300 .404 83 .185 .315 4.1 1 0.8 Jared Sandberg
Mitch Moreland .239 .313 .433 94 .194 .279 4.8 3 0.7 Roy Smalley
Kevin Plawecki .246 .320 .387 85 .141 .288 4.4 0 0.7 Del Rice
Dustin Pedroia .266 .329 .359 82 .093 .296 4.3 2 0.7 Mark Loretta
Jarren Duran .267 .311 .364 77 .097 .339 4.4 -2 0.4 Willy Taveras
Tzu-Wei Lin .241 .295 .347 69 .106 .308 3.5 3 0.4 Omar Moraga
Rusney Castillo .271 .305 .387 81 .116 .308 4.2 5 0.3 Terrence Long
John Andreoli .215 .313 .351 75 .136 .304 3.9 4 0.2 Bo Porter
Chad de la Guerra .224 .282 .373 71 .149 .300 3.6 -1 0.1 Mike Neal
Jantzen Witte .240 .294 .355 70 .115 .302 3.6 1 0.0 Brian Barden
Tommy Joseph .244 .293 .444 90 .200 .288 4.6 -3 0.0 Nate Gold
Jett Bandy .206 .266 .363 63 .157 .247 3.2 0 -0.1 Charlie Greene
Tony Renda .260 .305 .374 78 .114 .295 4.2 -3 -0.1 Frank Duffy
Steve Pearce .219 .302 .371 76 .152 .277 3.9 0 -0.1 Brian Jordan
Josh Ockimey .209 .310 .393 84 .184 .302 4.1 -1 -0.2 Jeff Bailey
C.J. Chatham .255 .284 .345 65 .090 .326 3.6 0 -0.2 Tom Veryzer
Juan Centeno .245 .294 .336 66 .090 .290 3.6 -5 -0.4 Brian Loyd
Triston Casas .216 .283 .394 76 .178 .285 3.8 2 -0.5 Greg Blosser
Josh Tobias .233 .287 .334 64 .101 .307 3.1 0 -0.5 Mendy Lopez
Cole Sturgeon .238 .282 .347 65 .108 .303 3.5 4 -0.5 Mickey Hyde
Nick Longhi .228 .278 .362 67 .135 .301 3.5 3 -0.7 John Hughes
Marcus Wilson .213 .278 .378 70 .165 .316 3.6 -6 -0.7 Michael Rodriguez
Austin Rei .177 .262 .273 42 .096 .272 2.2 1 -0.7 Russ Jacobson
Gorkys Hernández .220 .286 .342 65 .122 .298 3.4 -3 -0.7 Kimera Bartee
Edgar Corcino .240 .286 .379 73 .139 .309 3.7 -3 -0.8 Jalal Leach
Bryce Brentz .210 .271 .390 71 .180 .289 3.6 -4 -0.8 Greg Sparks
Garrett Benge .202 .271 .285 47 .083 .312 2.5 2 -1.0 Mario Ramirez
Jonathan Arauz .211 .266 .347 60 .136 .252 3.0 -5 -1.0 Todd Carey
Brett Netzer .210 .262 .305 49 .094 .299 2.6 5 -1.1 Rich Casarotti
Juremi Profar .231 .273 .344 61 .112 .267 3.2 5 -1.1 Danny Sheaffer
Ryan Fitzgerald .218 .273 .307 53 .089 .303 2.7 -1 -1.2 Drew Meyer
Marco Hernandez .247 .277 .338 61 .091 .315 3.2 -6 -1.2 Steve Sisco
Pedro Castellanos .241 .273 .350 63 .109 .285 3.2 -6 -2.1 Mike Collins
Tate Matheny .199 .245 .289 40 .090 .316 2.3 3 -2.1 Gary Dawson

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Chris Sale L 31 13 6 3.12 26 26 164.7 130 57 19 36 216 2.71
Eduardo Rodriguez L 27 12 9 4.28 31 30 174.3 169 83 23 64 177 3.97
David Price L 34 9 6 4.01 23 23 128.0 121 57 19 36 137 3.81
Martín Pérez L 29 8 8 5.00 28 25 144.0 158 80 18 57 104 4.55
Ryan Weber R 29 6 5 4.65 31 17 108.3 123 56 14 28 70 4.34
Matt Barnes R 30 6 3 3.48 65 0 62.0 46 24 6 34 96 2.99
Jhoulys Chacín R 32 9 8 4.99 27 25 124.3 126 69 18 52 109 4.56
Brandon Workman R 31 6 4 3.71 64 0 63.0 48 26 8 33 83 3.77
Josh Taylor L 27 4 2 3.78 68 0 66.7 60 28 6 29 75 3.41
Andrew Cashner R 33 8 8 5.22 32 22 127.7 134 74 19 53 92 4.92
Nathan Eovaldi R 30 4 4 4.95 22 16 83.7 89 46 14 28 80 4.45
Kutter Crawford R 24 7 7 5.16 23 23 103.0 108 59 14 60 90 4.95
Matt Hall L 26 6 5 5.08 37 15 113.3 115 64 16 57 111 4.57
Daniel McGrath L 25 4 4 5.11 33 16 107.3 111 61 15 58 93 4.88
Bryan Mata R 21 7 7 5.16 22 22 96.0 98 55 11 65 80 5.03
Marcus Walden R 31 6 4 4.33 54 3 70.7 69 34 6 30 62 3.80
Kyle Hart L 27 10 10 5.37 24 22 125.7 140 75 20 54 94 5.04
Mike Kickham L 31 5 5 5.04 27 13 84.0 89 47 14 30 72 4.70
Hector Velazquez R 31 3 3 4.81 35 11 76.7 83 41 11 32 60 4.73
Colten Brewer R 27 5 3 4.07 62 0 66.3 64 30 5 33 62 3.78
Ryan Brasier R 32 4 3 4.03 62 0 58.0 55 26 7 18 56 3.75
Chris Mazza R 30 5 5 5.33 25 16 99.7 113 59 16 36 73 4.89
Eduard Bazardo R 24 5 4 4.67 34 3 71.3 75 37 12 21 64 4.46
Denyi Reyes R 23 9 10 5.58 27 26 143.7 170 89 31 35 97 5.37
Steven Wright R 35 4 3 5.20 16 9 64.0 68 37 11 28 48 5.23
Austin Brice R 28 2 2 4.36 45 1 53.7 51 26 8 20 54 4.22
Heath Hembree R 31 2 1 4.28 52 0 48.3 45 23 8 20 57 4.21
Tanner Houck R 24 7 8 5.50 30 18 103.0 113 63 17 50 84 5.15
Jeffrey Springs L 27 4 4 5.03 37 6 68.0 66 38 11 35 77 4.56
Darwinzon Hernandez L 23 4 3 4.50 68 0 58.0 43 29 5 54 84 4.20
R.J. Alvarez R 29 5 4 4.50 48 0 48.0 44 24 5 29 52 4.18
Jenrry Mejia R 30 5 4 4.53 44 0 49.7 52 25 7 16 40 4.37
Matthew Kent L 27 7 8 5.71 27 24 140.3 175 89 22 52 82 5.16
Brian Johnson L 29 4 4 5.54 28 14 76.3 84 47 14 37 65 5.32
Bobby Poyner L 27 3 3 4.80 54 1 65.7 67 35 11 25 64 4.55
Trevor Hildenberger R 29 4 3 4.70 50 0 53.7 57 28 8 15 46 4.24
Raynel Espinal R 28 6 5 4.74 23 0 68.3 71 36 12 23 68 4.48
Durbin Feltman R 23 3 2 4.84 43 0 48.3 47 26 5 31 45 4.59
Andrew Schwaab R 27 3 3 5.00 44 0 54.0 53 30 5 36 47 4.64
Josh Osich L 31 2 2 5.04 57 0 60.7 63 34 9 23 53 4.50
Dan Runzler L 35 1 1 5.52 30 0 31.0 32 19 4 21 26 5.21
Robinson Leyer R 27 3 3 5.53 43 1 55.3 55 34 8 39 54 5.22
Mike Shawaryn R 25 4 5 6.11 25 18 98.7 112 67 21 47 81 5.73
Domingo Tapia R 28 4 5 5.68 43 3 65.0 75 41 11 32 45 5.47
Konner Wade R 28 5 7 6.20 23 15 97.3 123 67 23 26 56 5.90
Tom Windle L 28 4 5 5.68 45 0 50.7 51 32 8 34 49 5.31
Adam Lau R 25 3 4 5.84 40 1 57.0 59 37 10 37 55 5.48
Dedgar Jimenez L 24 5 7 6.45 29 17 96.3 112 69 20 55 71 6.12
Teddy Stankiewicz R 26 6 8 6.60 24 22 122.7 155 90 31 41 84 6.10

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale 11.8 2.0 1.0 5.4% 32.5% .292 147 68 4.7 Frank Viola
Eduardo Rodriguez 9.1 3.3 1.2 8.5% 23.6% .304 107 94 2.8 Zane Smith
David Price 9.6 2.5 1.3 6.7% 25.5% .299 114 88 2.4 Jimmy Key
Martín Pérez 6.5 3.6 1.1 8.9% 16.3% .306 91 110 1.2 Jim O’Toole
Ryan Weber 5.8 2.3 1.2 5.9% 14.8% .307 98 102 1.2 Bob Purkey
Matt Barnes 13.9 4.9 0.9 12.8% 36.2% .315 131 76 1.1 Jim Kern
Jhoulys Chacín 7.9 3.8 1.3 9.5% 19.9% .298 91 109 1.1 Bob Bruce
Brandon Workman 11.9 4.7 1.1 12.3% 31.0% .282 123 81 0.9 Turk Wendell
Josh Taylor 10.1 3.9 0.8 10.1% 26.0% .309 121 83 0.8 Darold Knowles
Andrew Cashner 6.5 3.7 1.3 9.4% 16.3% .290 88 114 0.7 Spec Shea
Nathan Eovaldi 8.6 3.0 1.5 7.7% 22.0% .313 92 108 0.7 Pat Ahearne
Kutter Crawford 7.9 5.2 1.2 12.6% 18.9% .307 89 113 0.7 Rick Berg
Matt Hall 8.8 4.5 1.3 11.2% 21.7% .309 90 111 0.7 Jake Chapman
Daniel McGrath 7.8 4.9 1.3 11.9% 19.0% .303 89 112 0.7 Chris Short
Bryan Mata 7.5 6.1 1.0 14.4% 17.8% .302 89 113 0.7 Mike Torrez
Marcus Walden 7.9 3.8 0.8 9.7% 20.0% .303 105 95 0.6 Tom Timmermann
Kyle Hart 6.7 3.9 1.4 9.5% 16.5% .305 85 118 0.6 Andy Hassler
Mike Kickham 7.7 3.2 1.5 8.1% 19.5% .301 91 110 0.6 Lee Guetterman
Hector Velazquez 7.0 3.8 1.3 9.3% 17.5% .305 95 105 0.6 Don Schwall
Colten Brewer 8.4 4.5 0.7 11.2% 21.1% .309 112 89 0.5 Sarge Connally
Ryan Brasier 8.7 2.8 1.1 7.3% 22.8% .296 113 88 0.5 Bob Humphreys
Chris Mazza 6.6 3.3 1.4 8.1% 16.4% .308 86 117 0.4 Ownie Carroll
Eduard Bazardo 8.1 2.6 1.5 6.8% 20.6% .303 98 102 0.4 Brian Barber
Denyi Reyes 6.1 2.2 1.9 5.5% 15.3% .301 82 122 0.4 Dave Eiland
Steven Wright 6.8 3.9 1.5 9.8% 16.7% .291 88 114 0.3 Rip Sewell
Austin Brice 9.1 3.4 1.3 8.6% 23.2% .295 105 96 0.3 Wes Stock
Heath Hembree 10.6 3.7 1.5 9.6% 27.4% .303 107 94 0.3 Jay Powell
Tanner Houck 7.3 4.4 1.5 10.6% 17.9% .307 83 121 0.3 Tim Byron
Jeffrey Springs 10.2 4.6 1.5 11.5% 25.3% .309 91 110 0.2 Tim Byrdak
Darwinzon Hernandez 13.0 8.4 0.8 19.9% 30.9% .304 101 99 0.2 Grant Jackson
R.J. Alvarez 9.8 5.4 0.9 13.4% 24.1% .305 101 99 0.2 George Smith
Jenrry Mejia 7.2 2.9 1.3 7.4% 18.6% .300 101 99 0.2 John Boozer
Matthew Kent 5.3 3.3 1.4 8.1% 12.7% .319 80 125 0.2 Jeff Johnson
Brian Johnson 7.7 4.4 1.7 10.7% 18.8% .307 82 121 0.1 Mike Kekich
Bobby Poyner 8.8 3.4 1.5 8.7% 22.2% .304 95 105 0.1 Gabe Gonzalez
Trevor Hildenberger 7.7 2.5 1.3 6.5% 19.8% .306 97 103 0.1 Ron Taylor
Raynel Espinal 9.0 3.0 1.6 7.7% 22.9% .309 96 104 0.1 Marc Valdes
Durbin Feltman 8.4 5.8 0.9 13.9% 20.2% .302 94 106 0.0 Dave Cole
Andrew Schwaab 7.8 6.0 0.8 14.4% 18.8% .302 91 110 -0.1 Newt Kimball
Josh Osich 7.9 3.4 1.3 8.6% 19.9% .302 90 110 -0.1 Tom Burgmeier
Dan Runzler 7.5 6.1 1.2 14.5% 17.9% .301 83 121 -0.2 Marshall Bridges
Robinson Leyer 8.8 6.3 1.3 15.1% 20.8% .303 83 121 -0.3 Ken Wright
Mike Shawaryn 7.4 4.3 1.9 10.4% 17.8% .304 75 134 -0.4 Brandon Sloan
Domingo Tapia 6.2 4.4 1.5 10.6% 15.0% .306 80 124 -0.4 Preston Larrison
Konner Wade 5.2 2.4 2.1 5.9% 12.8% .305 74 136 -0.5 Jason Simontacchi
Tom Windle 8.7 6.0 1.4 14.4% 20.8% .303 80 125 -0.5 Tom Doyle
Adam Lau 8.7 5.8 1.6 13.9% 20.6% .304 78 128 -0.5 Sean Green
Dedgar Jimenez 6.6 5.1 1.9 12.1% 15.6% .304 71 141 -0.8 Matt Coenen
Teddy Stankiewicz 6.2 3.0 2.3 7.3% 15.0% .312 69 145 -1.0 Andy Ghelfi

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Boston Red Sox by Dan Szymborski!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
Jimmie Foxxalorian
Member
Jimmie Foxxalorian

Say Mookie gets dealt before start of season. For win projection, would it be safe to assume that it would simply then be whatever is projected at that point minus 6 wins?

JustinPBG
Member
Member
JustinPBG

He expects them to receive a 2 win player in return. So, minus 4

fjtorres
Member
fjtorres

Plus whatever MLB talent they get in return.
It is only minus 6 if they do a pure teardown, and only get prospects, which doesn’t match what they’re saying. If they did that they might as well go fire sale.
Considering how hard it will be to get value for Betts it is still most likely they keep him.

Slappytheclown
Member
Member
Slappytheclown

This, at least for half a season. If it’s going terrible, there will be a market for a team to pick up the 13mil left for remainder of the year to go for it – 13 is better than 27. Plus, you already know your in contention so it’ll be a good rental. If the sox are in it, I guess they can keep him. The worst would be like a 50-48 record at the trade deadline…not in or out. that would be tough to deal him then, the fanbase would not be happy.

fjtorres
Member
fjtorres

The downside there is dropping $13M in July won’t save them from the most draconian tax impacts.
Plus, as we saw last year, July is early to decide to pack it in: even weak teams (not in Detroit, KC, Miami or Baltimore) were still nominally in the WC hunt.

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

If they are 50-48 at the deadline(in reality it’s closer to another 10 games so say 55-53)- they would be at least 10 games out in the division, and likely 6-7 games out of the wild card. So would be really out even there….