2020 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

In my opinion, closing the deal with Josh Donaldson salvaged the Twins’ offseason. The team didn’t make any big moves last winter, disappointingly starting 2019 with a lower payroll than in 2018, but it did make several lower-key additions. With the Indians engaged in crippling levels of inaction, the Twins were able to “steal a march” on Cleveland and surprise them from behind. Minnesota had a quieter winter in the early going of this year and my worry — from their point of view that is — was that the Twins might enabling the White Sox to do to them in 2020 what they did to Cleveland in 2019.

Adding Donaldson, and moving Miguel Sanó to first, closes up the final hole in the starting lineup. Now, the Twins lineup resembles a classic Cardinals lineup, in the very best sense. There are no superstars — not even Donaldson — but the lineup is stacked, with every single starter projected to be at least league average. And there might be some upside remaining in Byron Buxton and Sanó. Like the best St. Louis teams, ZiPS sees the Twins as having ample backup plans at most positions, with Willians Astudillo, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Avila, and even Jake Cave and Tomás Telis/Ryan Jeffers as more-than-capable fill-ins.

I’m very happy to see that ZiPS, like Steamer, has become a true disciple of Luis Arraez. His 2019 projection of .268/.309/.354 was more than respectable for a player who only had a couple months of Double-A experience and who was on the edges of prospect status. Arraez blew through that quickly, hitting .344/.409/.401 in the minors and .334/.399/.439 in 92 major league games. And remember, the offensive explosion in the minors was home run related, something that didn’t much benefit Arraez, who had all of six professional homers when the Twins called him up (and none in 2019). I didn’t have an American League Rookie of the Year vote, but Arraez would have been either second or third on my ballot. I’m know it’s likely that ZiPS is projecting Arraez to lead the league in batting average, but so be it; I don’t put my thumb on the scale.

Pitchers

While I love the Donaldson signing, I would much rather have seen them sign the Josh Donaldson of pitching. The top of the rotation is solid, with José Berríos and Jake Odorizzi, and Rich Hill and Homer Bailey aren’t bad pickups, especially as the team waits for Michael Pineada to come back from suspension, but there are too many interesting question marks behind Berríos and Odorizzi. That’s a more palatable situation for a rebuilding team than a contending one. The Twins are still one, possibly two pitchers away from me feeling comfortable with their roster. The rotation is unlikely to be a disaster because they also project to have a lot of reasonable back-end options, but the whole complexion of this group changes with Zack Wheeler or Hyun-Jin Ryu in there.

The bullpen looks a lot like the offense in that there’s nobody really dominant apart from Taylor Rogers, but it’s not really weak anywhere either. ZiPS likes a lot of the team’s Triple-A bound relievers, with pitchers like Ryne Harper, Danny Coulombe, Andrew Vasquez, Blaine Hardy, and Cody Stashak all having the potential to add real value to the parent club if needed.

Prospects

While ZiPS still sees Royce Lewis ending up with more career WAR than Nick Gordon, that gap is much narrower than scouts’ perceptions of the two middle infielders would suggest. ZiPS thinks Lewis has a lot more upside than Gordon, but also a fairly large chance of being a total bust; ZiPS translates his 2019 minor league performance at .193/.234/.305, coming off a .228/.276/.339 translation in 2018. ZiPS thinks Gordon is a safer bet, but doesn’t see a great deal of upside, pegging him basically as a one-win starter for most of his career. Given where the Twins are right now, if they can land a real difference-maker on the mound with a package centered around Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, I would pull that trigger in an instant.

ZiPS is more optimistic about the pitching prospects. Both Brusdar Graterol and Lewis Thorpe received projections suggesting they could pitch right now in the majors without the least bit of embarrassment, forming part of the Twins’ ample supply of third-through-fifth starters. And if you’re looking for some interesting names of the fringe prospect variety, ZiPS gives a better than 50/50 shot that either Griffin Jax or Bailey Ober have at least one league-average season as a starter in the majors. Now, I’d be skeptical of Ober until he passes the Triple-A test — he looks like an NBA power forward with a fastball that’s maybe better than Jered Weaver’s — but I like giving players who don’t fit the mold but play well every opportunity to pass or fail on merit.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Josh Donaldson R 34 3B 539 452 76 116 24 1 27 79 80 121 4 2
Max Kepler L 27 RF 587 516 85 131 31 3 28 84 61 104 3 4
Jorge Polanco B 26 SS 656 590 86 166 35 7 19 83 53 110 7 5
Luis Arraez L 23 2B 638 576 82 178 30 3 6 45 57 45 6 4
Miguel Sano R 27 1B 482 418 76 100 19 2 35 91 59 181 0 1
Nelson Cruz R 39 DH 484 426 63 116 19 0 32 96 46 116 0 1
Byron Buxton R 26 CF 393 357 54 88 21 4 13 49 27 110 17 2
Eddie Rosario L 28 LF 601 568 89 161 33 2 27 96 26 99 6 3
Mitch Garver R 29 C 379 334 55 83 18 1 18 61 40 94 0 0
Willians Astudillo R 28 C 334 314 39 89 15 1 12 42 8 13 2 3
Marwin Gonzalez B 31 RF 487 443 55 117 26 1 15 65 36 103 4 2
Alex Avila L 33 C 243 199 22 40 7 0 9 27 42 90 1 0
Jake Cave L 27 CF 494 449 63 116 25 5 17 64 35 146 4 2
Ryan Jeffers R 23 C 404 369 44 86 16 0 12 40 28 97 0 0
Tomás Telis B 29 C 356 333 38 92 16 2 5 36 17 40 1 1
Ian Miller L 28 CF 526 481 56 119 23 4 5 43 34 102 29 6
Nick Gordon L 24 SS 492 459 51 113 25 4 6 44 26 116 15 5
Ehire Adrianza B 30 SS 279 249 35 64 13 2 6 30 20 51 3 2
Alex Kirilloff L 22 RF 508 475 54 128 26 2 15 54 26 105 6 5
Drew Maggi R 31 3B 428 378 45 84 16 2 6 31 36 104 8 5
Ben Rortvedt L 22 C 353 320 34 67 14 2 7 30 27 86 0 0
LaMonte Wade Jr L 26 RF 467 399 54 94 15 3 8 37 56 81 6 3
Luke Raley L 25 RF 445 406 51 94 15 5 13 47 23 138 5 1
Jimmy Kerrigan R 26 CF 388 362 37 78 13 1 12 37 15 128 8 6
Wynston Sawyer R 28 C 202 181 21 41 11 0 4 18 15 55 0 1
Wilfredo Tovar R 28 SS 429 403 40 98 19 2 4 35 22 65 8 6
Jack Reinheimer R 27 SS 432 390 44 87 15 2 5 32 35 99 12 5
Alejandro De Aza L 36 LF 180 159 20 37 7 1 4 17 16 39 3 0
Mike Miller R 30 SS 326 298 32 72 12 0 3 22 21 52 5 4
Gilberto Celestino R 21 CF 521 483 49 109 21 1 11 44 32 114 14 8
Brent Rooker R 25 LF 406 363 48 78 17 1 17 51 35 142 2 1
Jose Miranda R 22 3B 535 503 51 114 25 1 12 53 20 77 0 1
Juan Graterol R 31 C 227 213 19 50 8 0 1 17 8 24 0 1
Ivan De Jesus Jr. R 33 3B 323 292 30 69 12 1 3 24 23 69 1 3
Cody Asche L 30 3B 318 283 34 59 13 1 8 35 30 97 3 2
Travis Blankenhorn L 23 2B 501 471 50 107 21 3 15 53 23 136 8 2
Royce Lewis R 21 SS 583 542 57 122 24 3 13 51 33 151 19 12
Wilin Rosario R 31 1B 443 414 50 102 21 1 15 61 21 95 3 2
Brandon Barnes R 34 LF 484 446 49 96 22 1 12 50 28 150 9 3
Zander Wiel R 27 1B 512 468 56 101 25 4 15 58 35 157 3 1
Trevor Larnach L 23 RF 519 473 53 114 25 2 12 50 39 143 3 1
Michael Davis L 24 SS 244 226 20 35 8 1 5 18 16 118 2 1
Andrew Bechtold R 24 3B 446 401 38 73 15 1 4 28 41 158 4 2
Caleb Hamilton R 25 C 365 330 33 60 15 1 6 30 31 114 4 4

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Josh Donaldson .257 .373 .493 125 .237 .293 6.7 3 3.9 Ron Santo
Max Kepler .254 .337 .488 118 .234 .268 5.9 9 3.1 Trot Nixon
Jorge Polanco .281 .342 .461 113 .180 .319 5.9 -4 3.0 Jorge Orta
Luis Arraez .309 .370 .403 108 .094 .328 5.8 -1 2.8 Dustin Pedroia
Miguel Sano .239 .336 .545 131 .306 .322 6.5 2 2.7 Jay Buhner
Nelson Cruz .272 .353 .542 135 .270 .302 7.1 0 2.7 Fred McGriff
Byron Buxton .246 .305 .437 96 .190 .321 5.2 8 2.0 Devon White
Eddie Rosario .283 .312 .491 111 .208 .303 5.8 2 1.9 Garret Anderson
Mitch Garver .249 .332 .470 112 .222 .293 5.6 -4 1.8 Steve Yeager
Willians Astudillo .283 .312 .452 102 .169 .266 5.2 2 1.5 Frank House
Marwin Gonzalez .264 .326 .429 100 .165 .314 5.1 2 1.2 Mike Brown
Alex Avila .201 .342 .372 92 .171 .310 4.3 4 1.2 Wes Westrum
Jake Cave .258 .318 .450 103 .192 .346 5.2 -7 1.2 Junior Felix
Ryan Jeffers .233 .297 .374 79 .141 .285 3.9 3 1.0 Pete Beeler
Tomás Telis .276 .315 .381 86 .105 .302 4.5 0 0.8 Charlie Moore
Ian Miller .247 .303 .343 74 .096 .305 4.1 4 0.8 Chris Roberson
Nick Gordon .246 .291 .357 73 .111 .318 3.8 2 0.6 Ron Gardenhire
Ehire Adrianza .257 .315 .398 90 .141 .302 4.5 -4 0.4 Joe Randa
Alex Kirilloff .269 .311 .427 96 .158 .318 4.8 -3 0.3 Jose Guillen
Drew Maggi .222 .306 .323 70 .101 .291 3.4 4 0.3 Chico Ruiz
Ben Rortvedt .209 .278 .331 63 .122 .264 3.1 4 0.3 Walt McKeel
LaMonte Wade Jr .236 .337 .348 85 .113 .277 4.1 -2 0.2 John Lewis
Luke Raley .232 .292 .389 81 .158 .318 4.1 1 0.0 Rusty Tillman
Jimmy Kerrigan .215 .258 .356 63 .141 .297 3.1 6 0.0 Greg Porter
Wynston Sawyer .227 .302 .354 76 .127 .303 3.6 -3 0.0 Dusty Brown
Wilfredo Tovar .243 .283 .330 64 .087 .281 3.2 2 0.0 Dave Myers
Jack Reinheimer .223 .288 .310 61 .087 .287 3.2 2 -0.1 Drew Meyer
Alejandro De Aza .233 .313 .365 82 .132 .284 4.2 -1 -0.1 Brian Jordan
Mike Miller .242 .293 .312 63 .070 .284 3.2 0 -0.2 Al Pedrique
Gilberto Celestino .226 .278 .342 66 .116 .274 3.3 3 -0.2 Mike Rennhack
Brent Rooker .215 .293 .408 85 .193 .299 4.1 -4 -0.2 Shon Ashley
Jose Miranda .227 .265 .352 64 .125 .246 3.2 4 -0.2 Rob Cosby
Juan Graterol .235 .270 .286 50 .052 .261 2.6 2 -0.3 Bob Swift
Ivan De Jesus Jr. .236 .299 .315 66 .079 .300 3.1 -1 -0.4 Ron Oester
Cody Asche .208 .289 .346 70 .138 .287 3.4 -4 -0.4 Trace Coquillette
Travis Blankenhorn .227 .268 .380 71 .153 .288 3.6 -4 -0.4 Carlos Casimiro
Royce Lewis .225 .271 .352 66 .127 .288 3.2 -2 -0.5 Asdrubal Cabrera
Wilin Rosario .246 .289 .411 85 .164 .286 4.2 -4 -0.5 Chan Perry
Brandon Barnes .215 .269 .350 65 .135 .296 3.3 5 -0.6 Orsino Hill
Zander Wiel .216 .275 .382 74 .167 .291 3.6 1 -0.6 Doug Devore
Trevor Larnach .241 .301 .378 81 .137 .321 4.1 -6 -0.6 Juan Tejeda
Michael Davis .155 .213 .265 28 .111 .291 1.8 1 -1.1 Dave Detienne
Andrew Bechtold .182 .258 .254 39 .072 .289 2.2 2 -1.6 Jake Wald
Caleb Hamilton .182 .255 .288 46 .106 .257 2.3 -7 -1.6 Brian Moon

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Jose Berrios R 26 13 10 4.17 32 32 190.0 179 88 27 59 193 3.93
Jake Odorizzi R 30 12 8 4.09 29 29 149.7 136 68 22 52 158 4.02
Randy Dobnak R 25 10 8 4.29 32 25 147.0 161 70 17 38 100 4.10
Rich Hill L 40 7 4 3.59 18 18 87.7 73 35 13 28 103 3.72
Devin Smeltzer L 24 7 6 4.55 33 25 144.3 155 73 24 35 122 4.38
Michael Pineda R 31 7 6 4.50 22 22 118.0 125 59 21 25 110 4.26
Taylor Rogers L 29 4 2 3.09 63 0 67.0 56 23 6 19 78 2.87
Lewis Thorpe L 24 8 7 4.69 31 23 126.7 130 66 23 38 132 4.36
Brusdar Graterol R 21 6 5 4.52 30 16 85.7 86 43 11 37 77 4.35
Griffin Jax R 25 6 5 4.86 22 22 113.0 130 61 15 29 68 4.47
Bailey Ober R 24 4 4 4.56 15 14 73.0 77 37 14 17 63 4.65
Bryan Sammons L 25 8 8 5.01 25 24 109.7 113 61 15 58 94 4.83
Matt Wisler R 27 6 6 4.83 38 15 104.3 110 56 18 28 101 4.29
Blaine Hardy L 33 3 2 4.14 41 5 63.0 63 29 7 18 49 3.93
Sean Poppen R 26 6 6 5.04 24 18 103.7 109 58 15 47 91 4.67
Jhoan Duran R 22 8 8 5.09 23 23 104.3 106 59 16 53 101 4.76
Zack Littell R 24 3 2 4.05 66 0 80.0 76 36 9 32 78 3.89
Tyler Duffey R 29 4 3 4.04 61 0 71.3 65 32 11 21 85 3.68
Cody Stashak R 26 5 5 4.65 42 7 79.3 81 41 14 21 77 4.33
Trevor May R 30 4 3 3.93 57 0 52.7 44 23 7 24 65 3.81
Charlie Barnes L 24 7 7 5.31 25 24 120.3 133 71 16 64 84 5.11
Adam Bray R 27 4 4 4.93 32 10 84.0 95 46 15 26 65 4.88
Homer Bailey R 34 8 9 5.41 25 25 126.3 142 76 24 45 109 4.99
Addison Reed R 31 3 2 4.18 58 0 56.0 57 26 9 13 51 4.14
Sam Dyson R 32 4 3 4.20 59 0 55.7 55 26 7 18 46 4.13
Ryne Harper R 31 4 3 4.20 53 0 55.7 55 26 8 16 53 4.01
Daniel Coulombe L 30 3 2 4.14 42 0 45.7 41 21 6 19 53 3.82
Andrew Vasquez L 26 3 2 4.35 37 1 49.7 42 24 4 36 57 4.11
Edwar Colina R 23 5 6 5.40 20 16 93.3 97 56 14 52 78 5.13
Fernando Romero R 25 3 2 4.40 57 0 71.7 69 35 7 35 67 4.05
Gabriel Moya L 25 3 3 4.83 48 7 59.7 59 32 10 25 58 4.67
Jorge Alcala R 24 6 7 5.35 31 16 102.7 109 61 16 53 89 5.02
Preston Guilmet R 32 3 3 4.76 41 4 62.3 63 33 12 19 66 4.48
Sergio Romo R 37 2 2 4.38 57 0 51.3 49 25 9 16 54 4.29
Andro Cutura R 26 3 4 5.37 16 12 62.0 71 37 9 25 38 5.05
Tyler Clippard R 35 2 2 4.45 56 0 54.7 48 27 10 20 63 4.35
DJ Baxendale R 29 5 5 5.23 30 9 74.0 81 43 12 29 58 4.90
Jeremy Bleich L 33 3 3 4.70 31 2 44.0 47 23 6 16 37 4.36
Melvi Acosta R 25 5 6 5.28 26 8 73.3 82 43 10 35 48 5.08
Ian Krol L 29 2 2 4.53 50 0 51.7 49 26 7 25 56 4.23
Jonathan Cheshire R 25 3 3 4.57 27 0 41.3 45 21 5 14 27 4.46
Anthony Vizcaya R 26 3 3 4.87 43 2 68.3 68 37 10 37 63 4.86
Ryan Garton R 30 3 3 4.77 43 1 60.3 59 32 8 32 59 4.54
Tom Hackimer R 26 4 4 4.70 35 0 51.7 48 27 5 36 49 4.63
Sam Clay L 27 4 5 5.11 41 4 68.7 67 39 6 51 59 4.83
Jake Reed R 27 4 3 4.86 43 1 66.7 64 36 9 34 67 4.46
Caleb Thielbar L 33 2 2 4.75 43 0 60.7 63 32 11 16 55 4.52
Ryan Mason R 25 4 3 4.84 29 0 48.3 52 26 7 19 37 4.71
Ryan O’Rourke L 32 3 3 5.01 43 1 46.7 43 26 6 32 51 4.72
Brandon Barnes R 34 0 0 7.36 3 0 3.7 5 3 1 1 1 7.00
Cody Allen R 31 3 3 5.10 51 1 47.7 43 27 9 27 56 4.98
Jovani Moran L 23 3 4 5.17 29 0 47.0 41 27 7 38 56 5.16
Mitch Horacek L 28 3 3 5.62 45 0 49.7 51 31 8 32 48 5.27
Hector Lujan R 25 3 4 5.46 36 0 57.7 65 35 12 21 44 5.45
Tyler Watson L 27 1 2 6.08 22 0 37.0 43 25 8 17 28 5.86
Chase De Jong R 26 5 8 6.75 23 21 110.7 136 83 27 48 72 6.35

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Berrios 9.1 2.8 1.3 7.3% 23.9% .295 107 94 3.1 Steve Rogers
Jake Odorizzi 9.5 3.1 1.3 8.3% 25.1% .289 109 92 2.5 Pat Hentgen
Randy Dobnak 6.1 2.3 1.0 6.0% 15.7% .304 104 96 2.1 Fred Newman
Rich Hill 10.6 2.9 1.3 7.7% 28.2% .279 116 87 1.6 Al Leiter
Devin Smeltzer 7.6 2.2 1.5 5.7% 19.7% .304 98 102 1.7 Scott McGregor
Michael Pineda 8.4 1.9 1.6 5.0% 22.0% .306 99 101 1.5 Bob Tewksbury
Taylor Rogers 10.5 2.6 0.8 6.9% 28.3% .296 144 69 1.5 Sparky Lyle
Lewis Thorpe 9.4 2.7 1.6 7.0% 24.2% .308 95 105 1.3 Glendon Rusch
Brusdar Graterol 8.1 3.9 1.2 9.8% 20.4% .301 99 101 1.0 Russ Meyer
Griffin Jax 5.4 2.3 1.2 5.9% 13.7% .305 92 109 1.0 Rick Wise
Bailey Ober 7.8 2.1 1.7 5.4% 20.2% .294 98 102 0.9 Dave Rozema
Bryan Sammons 7.7 4.8 1.2 11.6% 18.8% .302 89 112 0.8 Terry Mulholland
Matt Wisler 8.7 2.4 1.6 6.3% 22.6% .310 92 108 0.8 Tony Arnold
Blaine Hardy 7.0 2.6 1.0 6.8% 18.4% .293 108 93 0.7 Ramon Hernandez
Sean Poppen 7.9 4.1 1.3 10.1% 19.5% .306 89 113 0.7 Sean White
Jhoan Duran 8.7 4.6 1.4 11.3% 21.4% .305 88 114 0.7 Rick Berg
Zack Littell 8.8 3.6 1.0 9.3% 22.6% .300 110 91 0.6 Turk Farrell
Tyler Duffey 10.7 2.6 1.4 7.0% 28.4% .302 110 91 0.6 Mike Burns
Cody Stashak 8.7 2.4 1.6 6.2% 22.7% .300 96 104 0.5 John Doherty
Trevor May 11.1 4.1 1.2 10.7% 28.9% .291 113 88 0.5 Ken Ryan
Charlie Barnes 6.3 4.8 1.2 11.5% 15.1% .304 84 119 0.5 Jerry Reuss
Adam Bray 7.0 2.8 1.6 7.0% 17.5% .307 90 111 0.5 John Doherty
Homer Bailey 7.8 3.2 1.7 8.0% 19.4% .311 82 121 0.4 Pat Ahearne
Addison Reed 8.2 2.1 1.4 5.5% 21.7% .298 107 94 0.4 Hi Bell
Sam Dyson 7.4 2.9 1.1 7.5% 19.2% .291 106 94 0.4 Kent Tekulve
Ryne Harper 8.6 2.6 1.3 6.8% 22.5% .299 106 94 0.3 Kent Tekulve
Daniel Coulombe 10.4 3.7 1.2 9.7% 27.0% .302 108 93 0.3 Javier Lopez
Andrew Vasquez 10.3 6.5 0.7 15.8% 25.0% .299 103 98 0.3 Clay Bryant
Edwar Colina 7.5 5.0 1.4 12.2% 18.3% .299 83 121 0.3 Jim Clancy
Fernando Romero 8.4 4.4 0.9 11.0% 21.0% .302 101 99 0.3 Tommie Sisk
Gabriel Moya 8.7 3.8 1.5 9.5% 22.1% .295 92 108 0.3 Pat Clements
Jorge Alcala 7.8 4.6 1.4 11.3% 19.0% .305 83 120 0.2 Tim Byron
Preston Guilmet 9.5 2.7 1.7 7.1% 24.6% .304 94 107 0.2 Gil Heredia
Sergio Romo 9.5 2.8 1.6 7.4% 24.9% .292 102 98 0.2 Mike Timlin
Andro Cutura 5.5 3.6 1.3 8.9% 13.5% .302 83 120 0.2 Bill Swift
Tyler Clippard 10.4 3.3 1.6 8.6% 27.2% .279 100 100 0.2 Jim Corsi
DJ Baxendale 7.1 3.5 1.5 8.8% 17.6% .304 85 117 0.2 Milo Candini
Jeremy Bleich 7.6 3.3 1.2 8.2% 19.0% .308 95 106 0.2 Fred Gladding
Melvi Acosta 5.9 4.3 1.2 10.4% 14.3% .303 84 118 0.1 Don Carrithers
Ian Krol 9.8 4.4 1.2 10.9% 24.5% .304 98 102 0.1 Tippy Martinez
Jonathan Cheshire 5.9 3.0 1.1 7.7% 14.8% .299 97 103 0.1 Pedro Borbon
Anthony Vizcaya 8.3 4.9 1.3 12.0% 20.4% .297 91 109 0.1 Joe Hudson
Ryan Garton 8.8 4.8 1.2 11.9% 21.9% .302 93 107 0.1 Ted Abernathy
Tom Hackimer 8.5 6.3 0.9 15.1% 20.6% .297 95 105 0.0 Newt Kimball
Sam Clay 7.7 6.7 0.8 15.8% 18.3% .300 87 115 0.0 Brian Adams
Jake Reed 9.0 4.6 1.2 11.5% 22.6% .301 92 109 0.0 Sean Green
Caleb Thielbar 8.2 2.4 1.6 6.2% 21.2% .297 94 106 0.0 Tom Burgmeier
Ryan Mason 6.9 3.5 1.3 8.8% 17.2% .302 92 109 -0.1 Bill Castro
Ryan O’Rourke 9.8 6.2 1.2 15.0% 23.8% .301 89 112 -0.1 Marshall Bridges
Brandon Barnes 2.5 2.5 2.5 5.9% 5.9% .286 61 165 -0.1 Bob Miller
Cody Allen 10.6 5.1 1.7 12.8% 26.5% .288 87 114 -0.2 Craig McMurtry
Jovani Moran 10.7 7.3 1.3 17.3% 25.5% .293 86 116 -0.2 Grant Jackson
Mitch Horacek 8.7 5.8 1.4 13.8% 20.7% .305 87 114 -0.1 Tom Doyle
Hector Lujan 6.9 3.3 1.9 8.1% 17.1% .298 82 123 -0.5 Dick Coffman
Tyler Watson 6.8 4.1 1.9 9.9% 16.4% .304 73 136 -0.6 Brian Henderson
Chase De Jong 5.9 3.9 2.2 9.4% 14.0% .303 66 151 -1.3 Pat Ahearne

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Cave Dameron
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Cave Dameron

Thank you Dan, very cool!