2020 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees.

Batters

That ZiPS gives the Yankees such a robust projection is hardly surprising. This is a team, after all, that won 103 games in 2019 despite missing most of their starting lineup, their ace pitcher, and a top reliever for large chunks of the season.

It’s unlikely the Yankees are going to win 110 games in this year. While the team did an excellent job furnishing Plans B through Z, players like Mike Tauchman and Gio Urshela likely performed at what might be thought to be the reasonable high-end of their expectations. Both project to be valuable in 2020, but not quite as spicy as they were in last season. Tauchman’s defensive projection remains quite aggressive, as the probability-based measure that ZiPS uses for minor league defense was a fan of Tock’s fielding, projecting him at around 10 runs a year as a center fielder in the minors. If only the Rockies could find a player like that!

Sadly, the uncertainty surrounding his long-term health has dipped Stanton’s career home run projection under 600, though there’s still plenty of time for him to remedy that. If you read the Yankees entry in our Elegy for ’19 series, you’re already quite familiar with the level of bananas in Gleyber Torres’ long-term projections. (If you haven’t, you can still click that link!)

If you’re looking for something to be pessimistic about, here is at least some downside on the roster. The Yankees made a certain Very Big Signing to add to their rotation, and as a result, they haven’t been as aggressive at manning the fallback positions as they were last winter. The middle infield and center field in particular don’t have a lot of depth right now. Center will improve once Aaron Hicks returns, but if last year’s situation with Luis Severino isn’t enough of a reminder, betting on when exactly a player will come back from a significant injury is a dangerous game.

You will note that Troy Tulowitzki and Jacoby Ellsbury are listed in the projections. This is a good place to insert a reminder that players are listed with their most recent teams, and that I project retired players for one last season. So keep this in mind further down when you see CC Sabathia and Danny Farquhar!

Pitchers

Once in a while, a young pitcher who hasn’t fully broken out will get Greg Maddux as their top comp. That’s when I have to remind readers that the comparison is to pre-Cy Young Greg Maddux, not to GREG MADDUX. Gerrit Cole, however, is the exception, with GREG MADDUX sitting at the top of his comp list.

Stylistically, they’re very different pitchers, and Maddux never threw a bunch of 98 mph fastballs. But don’t get fooled by the drastic, league-wide increase in strikeouts, or memories of Maddux getting by on 85 mph fastballs at the end of his career. In his prime, he was a strikeout pitcher, and from 1991 to 1998, he finished in the top 10 for strikeouts every year except 1996, with only 1997 out of the top five. Maddux currently ranks 10th all-time in strikeouts. There are few better compliments than being compared to prime Greg Maddux.

ZiPS expects a full recovery from Luis Severino, though it is conservative in its innings expectations for him and James Paxton. Like the offense, there is some risk here. If everything goes according to plan, the projections expect everyone, even J.A. Happ, to be at least league-average. But Severino and Paxton have injury histories, Sabathia is gone as a backup option, and Domingo Germán is serving an 81-game suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy.

The bullpen remains a top-tier unit, though the projections aren’t quite as aggressive as in past years. Dellin Betances and David Robertson are gone and Adam Warren, while returned to New York, is on a two-year minor-league contract as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. That the Yankee relief corps remains this robust even with the losses suggests just how good they were at their peak. It’s still a top-five pen, but it no longer goes eight deep, with three or four additional average relievers hanging around at Triple-A.

Add everything together and the Yankees will likely start the season with a projection north of 100 wins. Century-mark projections are quite rare, so don’t anger the baseball gods by getting greedy and declaring that the Bombers will beat their ZiPS by 10 wins.

Prospects

Jasson Dominguez is yet to be relevant to the projections, but ZiPS likes Deivi Garcia enough for them both. There are some obvious concerns over whether Garcia is built to throw 150 innings a year, but from a performance standpoint, he blew through the minors in 2019 and acquitted himself well in Triple-A for a pitcher who won’t be old enough to drink legally until May. His command still isn’t perfect and he probably needs a consolidation year, but he throws decently hard and isn’t afraid to go after hitters. Even if he ends up in the bullpen, he ought to have significant value there.

After Garcia, the pickings get thinner. Injuries no doubt play a factor, but ZiPS is over Estevan Florial in light of the .237/.297/.383 line he posted after returning in June from a broken wrist. If you’re looking for a glimmer of hope that Florial will beat his projection, note that he improved as the summer went on and he was more comfortable. Florial finished with a .796 OPS in August and he’s still only 23.

One fringe prospect to keep an eye on is Brooks Kriske. He’s been unhittable since missing 2017 and part of 2018 with a Tommy John, and between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton, he struck out 80 batters in 60.2 innings against 28 walks and only three homers allowed. His fastball gets into the upper-90s and he added a splitter this year that resulted in him having a better strikeout rate against lefties than righties. ZiPS projects him to be a league-average reliever throughout his prime, a very positive prognostication for an unheralded relief prospect with a short professional career.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

 

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Aaron Judge R 28 RF 522 435 84 113 19 1 33 82 79 166 5 3
Gleyber Torres R 23 SS 622 558 94 160 26 1 41 115 52 128 7 2
DJ LeMahieu R 31 2B 633 577 94 169 28 3 17 75 46 91 6 4
Giancarlo Stanton R 30 DH 567 494 86 127 24 1 43 116 63 175 2 0
Gary Sánchez R 27 C 467 414 67 101 18 1 32 93 43 125 1 1
Mike Tauchman L 29 LF 466 414 61 109 22 4 14 57 44 96 11 5
Luke Voit R 29 1B 499 433 69 115 20 2 23 74 57 126 0 1
Gio Urshela R 28 3B 502 471 66 133 27 0 19 71 23 88 1 1
Aaron Hicks B 30 CF 396 339 57 82 16 1 17 59 51 90 5 3
Mike Ford L 27 1B 491 432 69 111 22 0 25 75 51 92 0 1
Brett Gardner L 36 CF 531 469 76 116 20 5 16 54 52 101 12 3
Kyle Higashioka R 30 C 309 285 37 65 14 0 15 48 19 77 0 0
Thairo Estrada R 24 SS 420 393 47 97 17 3 9 42 19 83 7 3
Miguel Andújar R 25 3B 540 507 61 134 31 2 19 74 23 93 2 2
Clint Frazier R 25 LF 491 447 60 107 26 3 20 65 36 136 5 3
Cameron Maybin R 33 LF 368 325 49 80 16 1 9 38 40 91 12 7
Troy Tulowitzki R 35 SS 290 264 26 62 9 0 11 41 21 59 0 0
Erik Kratz R 40 C 222 202 21 46 8 0 7 25 12 41 1 0
Jacoby Ellsbury L 36 CF 301 271 37 67 12 2 4 26 25 49 12 3
Tyler Wade L 25 SS 470 425 51 95 17 4 7 36 36 120 16 5
Greg Bird L 27 1B 277 238 30 49 12 0 12 37 33 78 0 0
Chris Gittens R 26 1B 417 365 50 74 12 0 21 58 46 164 0 1
Hoy Jun Park L 24 2B 482 425 50 96 14 4 6 34 48 113 16 8
Kendrys Morales B 37 DH 295 256 27 60 6 1 9 33 33 52 1 1
Mandy Alvarez R 25 3B 466 436 46 101 21 2 10 48 24 83 3 3
Rosell Herrera B 27 3B 376 341 37 80 15 2 6 35 29 82 11 5
Zack Granite L 27 CF 504 471 51 117 14 4 4 34 27 52 19 9
Kyle Holder L 26 SS 443 406 41 94 15 2 7 35 25 80 5 3
Thomas Milone L 25 CF 359 329 32 66 10 5 4 27 23 104 9 6
Brian Navarreto R 25 C 299 279 25 54 9 0 6 24 10 68 0 0
Chris Iannetta R 37 C 231 199 22 36 7 0 7 23 27 79 0 0
Trey Amburgey R 25 RF 516 483 56 110 21 2 16 58 23 136 7 2
Cliff Pennington B 36 SS 202 180 18 35 5 1 3 14 17 55 3 1
Gosuke Katoh L 25 2B 427 381 43 78 15 2 8 35 41 135 9 5
Francisco Arcia L 30 C 255 237 21 50 7 0 4 21 10 56 1 2
Ben Ruta L 26 LF 468 431 45 98 16 3 7 38 31 105 18 10
Dermis Garcia R 22 1B 366 339 37 63 12 1 18 49 23 161 4 3
Zack Zehner R 27 LF 436 394 44 79 15 3 11 43 37 151 3 4
Terrance Gore R 29 CF 196 174 21 33 3 1 0 7 16 55 21 5
Matt Lipka R 28 CF 371 338 33 66 12 3 5 28 22 104 14 7
Estevan Florial L 22 CF 382 352 37 68 11 3 9 33 28 144 10 10
Billy Burns B 30 CF 363 332 36 78 9 2 2 23 21 56 13 6
Kellin Deglan L 28 C 244 226 21 39 7 1 7 22 12 100 1 1
Isiah Gilliam B 23 RF 488 450 49 88 15 1 17 53 32 196 9 8
Donny Sands R 24 C 284 264 22 51 11 1 3 20 16 78 0 3
Oswaldo Cabrera B 21 2B 529 496 47 104 21 1 10 45 26 133 7 11
Rashad Crawford L 26 CF 424 389 38 75 11 3 6 31 29 134 11 6

 

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Judge .260 .377 .536 140 .276 .339 7.3 10 4.6 Tim Salmon
Gleyber Torres .287 .348 .557 136 .271 .306 7.4 -7 4.6 Aramis Ramirez
DJ LeMahieu .293 .345 .440 108 .147 .324 5.8 7 3.6 Julio Franco
Giancarlo Stanton .257 .344 .571 138 .314 .304 7.2 0 3.5 Pat Burrell
Gary Sánchez .244 .323 .524 121 .280 .268 6.0 -6 2.6 Del Crandall
Mike Tauchman .263 .335 .437 105 .174 .313 5.4 13 2.5 Randy Winn
Luke Voit .266 .361 .480 122 .215 .324 6.3 0 2.3 Jeff Conine
Gio Urshela .282 .319 .461 105 .178 .313 5.5 3 2.2 Casey McGehee
Aaron Hicks .242 .339 .445 108 .204 .280 5.4 1 1.9 Randy Bush
Mike Ford .257 .340 .481 116 .225 .273 5.9 0 1.8 Tino Martinez
Brett Gardner .247 .327 .414 97 .166 .284 5.0 -2 1.7 Steve Finley
Kyle Higashioka .228 .278 .435 86 .207 .259 4.2 -2 0.7 Ed Herrmann
Thairo Estrada .247 .289 .374 76 .127 .292 3.9 1 0.6 Ricky Bell
Miguel Andújar .264 .298 .446 95 .181 .291 4.8 -9 0.6 Jorge Cantu
Clint Frazier .239 .299 .445 95 .206 .299 4.7 -3 0.5 John Vander Wal
Cameron Maybin .246 .332 .385 91 .138 .316 4.5 0 0.5 Pat Kelly
Troy Tulowitzki .235 .297 .394 83 .159 .263 4.1 -1 0.5 Charlie Hayes
Erik Kratz .228 .285 .371 74 .144 .253 3.8 1 0.4 Bob Boone
Jacoby Ellsbury .247 .314 .351 78 .103 .289 4.2 -1 0.3 So Taguchi
Tyler Wade .224 .289 .332 66 .108 .295 3.5 1 0.3 Doug Baker
Greg Bird .206 .307 .408 89 .202 .250 4.3 0 0.2 Todd Betts
Chris Gittens .203 .297 .408 86 .205 .294 4.1 0 0.1 Joe Citari
Hoy Jun Park .226 .310 .320 70 .094 .294 3.5 0 0.1 Angel Escobar
Kendrys Morales .234 .325 .371 86 .137 .262 4.2 0 0.1 Todd Zeile
Mandy Alvarez .232 .273 .358 67 .126 .265 3.4 4 0.1 Lipso Nava
Rosell Herrera .235 .299 .343 72 .109 .292 3.7 -1 0.0 Lou Collier
Zack Granite .248 .291 .321 64 .072 .272 3.4 2 -0.2 Trench Davis
Kyle Holder .232 .280 .330 63 .099 .273 3.2 0 -0.2 Michael Cockrell
Thomas Milone .201 .258 .298 48 .097 .281 2.5 8 -0.3 Alexander Presley
Brian Navarreto .194 .231 .290 38 .097 .234 2.2 7 -0.3 Jeff Winchester
Chris Iannetta .181 .286 .322 63 .141 .257 3.0 -5 -0.5 Chad Kreuter
Trey Amburgey .228 .270 .379 71 .151 .284 3.6 1 -0.5 Ray Ortiz
Cliff Pennington .194 .264 .283 47 .089 .262 2.6 -1 -0.5 Rene Gonzales
Gosuke Katoh .205 .285 .318 61 .113 .294 3.0 -2 -0.6 Mike Neal
Francisco Arcia .211 .257 .291 47 .080 .260 2.4 -2 -0.8 Chris Tremie
Ben Ruta .227 .278 .327 62 .100 .285 3.1 4 -0.8 Rick Parker
Dermis Garcia .186 .238 .386 63 .201 .281 3.0 1 -0.9 Ian Gac
Zack Zehner .201 .271 .338 62 .137 .293 3.0 2 -0.9 Jim Betzsold
Terrance Gore .190 .266 .218 32 .029 .277 2.6 -4 -0.9 Esix Snead
Matt Lipka .195 .251 .293 45 .098 .266 2.5 2 -1.0 Troy Gingrich
Estevan Florial .193 .252 .318 51 .125 .296 2.4 2 -1.0 Jeff McNeely
Billy Burns .235 .285 .292 55 .057 .277 3.0 -4 -1.0 Jim Buccheri
Kellin Deglan .173 .226 .305 40 .133 .269 2.2 -5 -1.2 Dave Ullery
Isiah Gilliam .196 .254 .347 59 .151 .300 2.8 2 -1.3 Willie Magallanes
Donny Sands .193 .243 .277 39 .083 .262 2.0 -4 -1.3 Alex Sutherland
Oswaldo Cabrera .210 .249 .317 50 .107 .266 2.4 3 -1.4 Gary Miller-Jones
Rashad Crawford .193 .252 .283 43 .090 .277 2.4 -6 -1.9 Stewart Smothers

 

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Gerrit Cole R 29 16 7 3.10 32 32 200.0 151 69 27 50 280 2.89
Luis Severino R 26 14 8 3.52 28 28 166.3 143 65 22 43 201 3.26
James Paxton L 31 11 7 3.82 27 27 143.7 130 61 21 44 169 3.65
Masahiro Tanaka R 31 11 8 4.34 29 29 168.0 169 81 29 37 150 4.30
J.A. Happ L 37 10 8 4.43 26 25 138.0 132 68 22 45 126 4.40
Chad Green R 29 5 3 3.27 57 11 74.3 60 27 11 22 100 3.30
Aroldis Chapman L 32 3 1 2.61 55 0 51.7 33 15 5 25 83 2.68
CC Sabathia L 39 7 6 4.44 21 21 107.3 107 53 17 39 98 4.50
Domingo German R 27 10 9 4.68 26 22 127.0 121 66 24 42 135 4.50
Jordan Montgomery L 27 5 4 4.43 18 18 87.3 88 43 13 32 74 4.52
Deivi Garcia R 21 7 7 4.68 26 21 107.7 99 56 18 57 129 4.55
Michael King R 25 7 6 4.78 21 19 111.0 119 59 20 27 88 4.67
Adam Ottavino R 34 6 3 3.49 66 0 59.3 43 23 7 35 84 3.65
Tommy Kahnle R 30 3 2 3.42 64 0 55.3 43 21 7 24 78 3.31
Jonathan Loaisiga R 25 4 3 4.21 21 12 57.7 56 27 9 20 63 4.06
Zack Britton L 32 2 1 3.48 58 0 51.7 43 20 3 26 47 3.63
Miguel Yajure R 22 7 7 5.04 24 20 121.3 132 68 22 38 94 4.93
Brian Keller R 26 6 6 5.03 18 17 96.7 106 54 17 32 76 4.89
Garrett Whitlock R 24 4 4 4.94 17 17 82.0 89 45 12 35 61 4.88
Luis Cessa R 28 4 3 4.70 35 8 90.0 89 47 15 34 83 4.64
Clarke Schmidt R 24 5 5 5.13 19 18 80.7 85 46 15 35 71 5.14
Ben Heller R 28 2 2 4.08 33 3 35.3 31 16 5 16 41 4.06
Nick Nelson R 24 6 6 5.24 21 20 92.7 88 54 13 65 98 4.99
Shawn Semple R 24 5 5 5.34 24 19 111.3 124 66 18 49 83 5.11
Dan Jennings L 33 3 2 4.20 51 0 45.0 45 21 5 20 36 4.36
Rex Brothers L 32 3 2 4.43 38 1 42.7 31 21 4 42 63 4.40
Cory Gearrin R 34 2 2 4.35 58 0 49.7 48 24 7 22 44 4.57
James Reeves L 27 4 4 4.57 33 1 61.0 57 31 8 35 64 4.51
Stephen Tarpley L 27 4 4 4.90 37 5 64.3 63 35 10 35 67 4.75
Randall Delgado R 30 3 3 5.06 24 7 53.3 56 30 10 20 46 5.02
Jonathan Holder R 27 4 3 4.45 51 0 60.7 58 30 10 21 65 4.22
Brooks Kriske R 26 3 3 4.44 41 0 50.7 45 25 6 33 56 4.46
Tyler Lyons L 32 2 2 4.39 33 0 41.0 37 20 7 15 48 4.16
Nick Tropeano R 29 5 5 5.44 17 15 81.0 87 49 18 36 75 5.55
Jake Barrett R 28 2 1 4.43 41 0 44.7 39 22 7 23 52 4.43
Adam Warren R 32 3 2 4.43 37 0 40.7 38 20 6 16 39 4.36
Joe Mantiply L 29 3 2 4.56 34 0 51.3 53 26 9 14 43 4.60
Trevor Stephan R 24 6 7 5.68 22 21 90.3 98 57 19 41 82 5.46
Danny Farquhar R 33 3 2 4.82 47 0 46.7 45 25 8 21 48 4.70
Braden Bristo R 25 3 3 4.81 38 0 58.0 56 31 9 32 60 4.78
Matt Wivinis R 26 4 4 4.84 39 0 48.3 48 26 7 25 47 4.67
David Sosebee R 26 4 3 4.85 37 0 55.7 53 30 9 26 58 4.60
Kaleb Ort R 28 3 3 4.89 34 0 46.0 39 25 6 38 58 4.83
Trevor Lane L 26 4 4 4.86 43 0 66.7 68 36 10 31 59 4.76
Brody Koerner R 26 5 6 5.68 25 19 120.3 140 76 23 46 78 5.52
Domingo Acevedo R 26 5 4 4.90 26 0 71.7 74 39 13 26 64 4.84
Brady Lail R 26 4 5 5.64 29 10 81.3 86 51 18 38 75 5.61
Nick Green R 25 5 7 5.87 21 19 96.7 110 63 14 59 61 5.63
Daniel Alvarez R 24 5 4 5.13 46 0 54.3 52 31 11 27 61 5.06
David Hale R 32 4 4 5.29 21 0 68.0 78 40 12 20 46 5.00
Cale Coshow R 27 3 4 5.79 33 2 51.3 51 33 11 33 55 5.75
Greg Weissert R 25 3 4 5.62 39 0 57.7 57 36 10 44 60 5.64
Albert Abreu R 24 5 8 6.62 22 20 87.0 99 64 19 62 70 6.55
Janson Junk R 24 4 7 6.97 21 14 81.3 98 63 20 53 58 6.91
Adonis Rosa R 25 5 7 5.82 25 0 102.0 118 66 22 38 76 5.61
Daniel Camarena L 27 6 7 5.85 20 0 104.7 121 68 24 33 80 5.58

 

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Gerrit Cole 12.6 2.3 1.2 6.3% 35.3% .286 141 71 5.5 Greg Maddux
Luis Severino 10.9 2.3 1.2 6.3% 29.5% .296 125 80 3.8 Roy Halladay
James Paxton 10.6 2.8 1.3 7.4% 28.3% .301 115 87 2.7 Andy Pettitte
Masahiro Tanaka 8.0 2.0 1.6 5.3% 21.4% .290 101 99 2.3 Dock Ellis
J.A. Happ 8.2 2.9 1.4 7.7% 21.5% .284 99 101 1.7 Tom Zachary
Chad Green 12.1 2.7 1.3 7.2% 32.9% .292 134 74 1.7 Rollie Fingers
Aroldis Chapman 14.5 4.4 0.9 11.7% 39.0% .286 168 60 1.4 Billy Wagner
CC Sabathia 8.2 3.3 1.4 8.4% 21.1% .294 99 101 1.3 Tom Glavine
Domingo German 9.6 3.0 1.7 7.8% 25.0% .290 94 107 1.3 Mike Scott
Jordan Montgomery 7.6 3.3 1.3 8.5% 19.6% .292 99 101 1.1 Bill Wight
Deivi Garcia 10.8 4.8 1.5 11.9% 27.0% .302 94 107 1.1 Matt Clement
Michael King 7.1 2.2 1.6 5.7% 18.4% .295 92 109 1.0 Rick Wise
Adam Ottavino 12.7 5.3 1.1 13.6% 32.7% .283 126 80 0.9 Jeff Nelson
Tommy Kahnle 12.7 3.9 1.1 10.3% 33.6% .298 128 78 0.8 Ryan Dempster
Jonathan Loaisiga 9.8 3.1 1.4 8.1% 25.4% .307 104 96 0.8 John Hope
Zack Britton 8.2 4.5 0.5 11.8% 21.3% .278 126 79 0.8 Hal Woodeshick
Miguel Yajure 7.0 2.8 1.6 7.1% 17.6% .296 87 115 0.7 Early Wynn
Brian Keller 7.1 3.0 1.6 7.5% 17.8% .301 87 115 0.6 Michael Macdonald
Garrett Whitlock 6.7 3.8 1.3 9.5% 16.5% .301 89 113 0.6 Joe Coleman
Luis Cessa 8.3 3.4 1.5 8.7% 21.2% .290 93 107 0.5 Frank Lankford
Clarke Schmidt 7.9 3.9 1.7 9.7% 19.7% .298 86 117 0.4 Ed Wojna
Ben Heller 10.4 4.1 1.3 10.5% 26.8% .292 108 93 0.4 Fred Gladding
Nick Nelson 9.5 6.3 1.3 15.1% 22.8% .301 84 120 0.4 Preston Hanna
Shawn Semple 6.7 4.0 1.5 9.7% 16.4% .305 82 122 0.3 Mark Cahill
Dan Jennings 7.2 4.0 1.0 10.1% 18.2% .294 104 96 0.2 Chet Nichols
Rex Brothers 13.3 8.9 0.8 20.9% 31.3% .300 99 101 0.2 Marshall Bridges
Cory Gearrin 8.0 4.0 1.3 10.0% 20.1% .289 101 99 0.2 Al Worthington
James Reeves 9.4 5.2 1.2 12.8% 23.4% .299 96 104 0.2 Pete Cappadona
Stephen Tarpley 9.4 4.9 1.4 12.0% 23.0% .303 90 112 0.2 Todd Rizzo
Randall Delgado 7.8 3.4 1.7 8.6% 19.7% .295 87 115 0.2 Joe Niekro
Jonathan Holder 9.6 3.1 1.5 8.1% 25.0% .298 99 101 0.1 Jerry Spradlin
Brooks Kriske 9.9 5.9 1.1 14.3% 24.3% .295 99 101 0.1 Clay Bryant
Tyler Lyons 10.5 3.3 1.5 8.6% 27.4% .294 100 100 0.1 Mike Magnante
Nick Tropeano 8.3 4.0 2.0 9.9% 20.6% .299 81 124 0.1 Jim Lonborg
Jake Barrett 10.5 4.6 1.4 11.8% 26.7% .288 99 101 0.1 Mark Acre
Adam Warren 8.6 3.5 1.3 9.2% 22.4% .286 99 101 0.1 Eddie Watt
Joe Mantiply 7.5 2.5 1.6 6.4% 19.6% .291 96 104 0.1 Erasmo Ramirez
Trevor Stephan 8.2 4.1 1.9 10.0% 20.0% .302 77 129 -0.1 Rick Sutcliffe
Danny Farquhar 9.3 4.1 1.5 10.2% 23.3% .294 91 110 -0.1 John Wyatt
Braden Bristo 9.3 5.0 1.4 12.2% 22.9% .299 91 110 -0.1 Julio DePaula
Matt Wivinis 8.8 4.7 1.3 11.5% 21.6% .301 91 110 -0.1 Casey Daigle
David Sosebee 9.4 4.2 1.5 10.6% 23.7% .295 90 111 -0.1 Casey Daigle
Kaleb Ort 11.3 7.4 1.2 17.7% 27.0% .300 90 111 -0.1 Gabriel Dehoyos
Trevor Lane 8.0 4.2 1.4 10.4% 19.8% .299 90 111 -0.2 Gabe Gonzalez
Brody Koerner 5.8 3.4 1.7 8.5% 14.4% .300 77 130 -0.2 Jake Joseph
Domingo Acevedo 8.0 3.3 1.6 8.3% 20.4% .295 90 112 -0.2 Ed Linke
Brady Lail 8.3 4.2 2.0 10.4% 20.5% .294 78 129 -0.2 Steve Fischer
Nick Green 5.7 5.5 1.3 12.9% 13.3% .303 75 134 -0.3 Edwin Morel
Daniel Alvarez 10.1 4.5 1.8 11.2% 25.2% .293 85 117 -0.3 Jim Winn
David Hale 6.1 2.6 1.6 6.6% 15.3% .301 83 121 -0.5 Steve Sundra
Cale Coshow 9.6 5.8 1.9 13.9% 23.1% .294 76 132 -0.5 Rick Greene
Greg Weissert 9.4 6.9 1.6 16.1% 21.9% .301 78 128 -0.6 Lloyd Allen
Albert Abreu 7.2 6.4 2.0 14.7% 16.6% .302 66 151 -1.0 Jake Joseph
Janson Junk 6.4 5.9 2.2 13.5% 14.7% .302 63 159 -1.3 Mark Woodyard
Adonis Rosa 6.7 3.4 1.9 8.3% 16.5% .302 75 133 -1.3 Tony Peguero
Daniel Camarena 6.9 2.8 2.1 7.1% 17.2% .300 75 133 -1.4 Lee Guetterman

 

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

Oh, nothing to see here, just a rotation fronted by Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay, and Andy Pettite, and a bullpen led by Rollie Fingers and Billy Wagner.

Like, this team winning a 100 games wouldn’t surprise me because the lineup will score a lot of runs too, but I feel terrible for any team that has to try and get through that pitching in a 5-game series.

jonah-pride
Member
jonah-pride

Don’t forget Tom Glavine (I know CC is retired, but what a comp to go out on)

Rex Manning Day
Member
Rex Manning Day

Masahiro Tanaka has a career postseason ERA- of 40 and he might not even appear in a 5-game series, which is pretty wild.

fjtorres
Member
fjtorres

Don’t forget Dock Ellis and Mike Scott in the back end.

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

To be fair, that depends quite a bit on what age they’re projecting for Ellis and Scott. Ellis was a 3-4 win pitcher at the beginning of his career and Mike Scott had an incredible two-year run in the middle of his career, but I don’t think those line up well with Tanaka and German’s current ages.

But 29-year old Maddux is a ridiculous comp (as Dan notes), and Pettite and Halladay were good for pretty much their whole careers.

CousinNicky
Member
CousinNicky

Pettite is interesting. I thought his peak was better. He only had 1 Cy Young caliber season (~7+ fWAR) and only 3 total All star caliber seasons (~5+ fWAR). He was a premium #2 starter (3-4 fWAR) for a very long time.

Mean Mr. Mustard
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Mean Mr. Mustard

I was hoping that the pitching projections would be star-studded once I saw the offensive comps. Not that they’re anything to sneeze at, but practically every one of them is more “hey, he wasn’t too bad in his prime” than worthy of a Pavlovian response.

Mean Mr. Mustard
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Mean Mr. Mustard

…so I guess several people used to salivate over Tim Salmon and Aramis Ramirez? Weird, but okay.

mikejunt
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mikejunt

Both of those guys were very good baseball players who peaked out at or above all-star level

They’re not necessarily bad comparables. Not every star is gonna get a line of HOFers as a comparison, and Tim Salmon is a legitimate Hall of Very Good baseball player.

Particularly a player like Judge, who plays a corner, has missed significant time due to injury, etc, comparisons to a HOF caliber player at age 27 are not likely.

Tim Salmon isn’t a bad comparable unless you were trying to convince yourself that Aaron Judge is the next coming of Frank Robinson or something.

I used the Frank Robinson example because there is a player who got that as a top comparable (Cody Bellinger), and you can consider the ways in which Bellinger has an advantage over Judge in an OF corner:

Age
Injury time missed
Foot speed (in the form of SBs)
Batting average

Bellinger will be younger than Judge was last year when he’s a free agent.