2020 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

The Phillies struggled at times to score runs in 2019, generally underperforming their preseason expectations. While it’s easy to blame the guy making $300 million, Bryce Harper was far from the only issue and in the big picture, he’s still highly likely to be a run producer for the Phillies. A 125 wRC+ may not be what we expected from Harper back when he was a phenom, but he’s still a star, if not one with the “super” prefix.

There’s little to complain about when it comes to J.T. Realmuto‘s performance. Yes, his offensive production, like Harper’s, was a bit below expectations, but he’s an elite defensive catcher and the Phillies should probably get him signed to an extension sooner rather than later because all bets are off once he hits free agency. I would be shocked if the team signing him next year can secure his services for “just” Yasmani Grandal’s contract.

Rhys Hoskins’s power bat didn’t explode the way other sluggers’ did in 2019, but just getting him out of the outfield, where he was Todd Hundley-awful despite his robust efforts to improve, and back to first base added a lot of value. I’m a fan of the Didi Gregorius deal, and think he’s nearly as good a pillow contract signing as Josh Donaldson was last year. Jean Segura was solid at second.

But it’s hard to shake the feeling that the Phillies could have used one more player. Andrew McCutchen is a risk given his age and injury last year, and whether center field ends up manned by Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, or To Be Determined, I’d prepare to be underwhelmed. Scott Kingery, despite a solid 2019 campaign, is likely still a better fit as a versatile role player in heavy rotation, getting 400 PA per year and playing multiple positions. The Phillies missed out on a real impact addition to the offense and in this division, they could come to regret it.

Pitchers

Just like the lineup, it feels like both the rotation and the bullpen are missing a name. ZiPS has no complaints about Aaron Nola, a long-time favorite of the projections, or about this winter’s big pickup, Zack Wheeler. But when I look past Nola and Wheeler to Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin, and Vince Velasquez, it feels like there’s a player missing between the tiers. A homecoming of sorts for Cole Hamels or an innings-eater like Tanner Roark would probably have fit the bill. Surgery to remove a bone spur isn’t as serious as Tommy John surgery by any means, but Arrieta’s effectiveness has become spotty, and any pitcher who misses time with an arm injury comes equipped with risk.

The good news is that there is depth in the rotation, so even if the Phillies could have used another arm, the need isn’t dire, and they do have reinforcements.

David Robertson will of course miss the 2020 season with Tommy John, so his projection is more out of curiosity than anything else. ZiPS likes the relief depth generally, but again, just one more pitcher may have taken this group to the next level. ZiPS is a fan of some of the minor league bullpen options, but it would be cheating to talk about them in this section.

Prospects

Alec Bohm didn’t have quite enough time in pro ball to get an official projection last year, but his combined High-A and Double-A .305/.378/.518 line put him on the ZiPS map with a great deal of urgency. He’s done enough (and the position is weak enough) that there’s a strong case to go with him at third base as quickly as possible and worry about what it means for Kingery later. And if Kingery works out, the Phillies shouldn’t have too many scruples about trading Bohm if it helps the team land an elite pitcher.

Spencer Howard’s parallel rise through the system has resulted in a similarly interesting projection, one which puts him on the edge of making a fight of it for a job at the back of the rotation, though with the Phillies rightfully risk-averse, it’s unlikely to be this spring. I suspect he won’t be quite as good in a full-time role as the projection suggests; the team’s been very conservative with his workload and if he pops up this summer, I think it’s more likely as a Julio Urías-type rather than as a traditional five-to-six inning starter.

ZiPS gives strong projections to many of the team’s minor league relievers. None are considered top prospects — again, they’re minor league relievers — but Connor Brogdon (a hard thrower with a circle-change), Luke Leftwich (the son of former major leaguer Phil), Tyler Carr, and Addison Russ (a splitter specialist) all have extremely promising, aggressive projections. Except for Leftwich, they’re all fairly recent draftees.

Unlike the Braves, relatively few of the Phillies’ key players are homegrown within, even if the team had the same prescription for developing the farm system during their rebuild that Atlanta did. The players who are key contributors from within (Hoskins, Nola, Héctor Neris, Seranthony Domínguez), were all brought in during the Amaro years. Now, there’s still plenty of time, and Amaro wasn’t let go until after the 2015 season, but the team has whiffed on some high picks so far. Mickey Moniak, in particular, has been one of ZiPS’s least favorite players, perhaps because he hasn’t picked up the obvious nickname of “The Maniac.”

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
J.T. Realmuto R 29 C 580 528 84 146 34 4 25 87 40 116 8 1
Bryce Harper L 27 RF 641 524 99 135 30 1 36 114 106 168 14 4
Rhys Hoskins R 27 1B 659 548 91 132 30 3 34 109 96 168 4 2
Didi Gregorius L 30 SS 495 459 70 127 23 3 24 81 26 65 4 2
Jean Segura R 30 2B 625 581 85 169 33 4 14 60 32 75 17 6
Alec Bohm R 23 3B 562 509 70 135 24 4 20 72 47 96 5 4
Andrew McCutchen R 33 LF 492 420 69 107 20 2 21 64 65 110 6 4
Odúbel Herrera L 28 CF 505 460 59 120 24 3 16 60 37 113 9 4
Jay Bruce L 33 LF 416 381 52 95 21 2 25 77 32 98 2 1
Scott Kingery R 26 3B 545 502 66 124 28 4 17 58 33 147 16 4
Brad Miller L 30 LF 364 322 46 78 16 3 19 55 37 102 3 3
Mitch Walding L 27 3B 408 347 48 65 11 2 16 49 54 176 2 1
Jose Pirela R 30 RF 447 415 55 109 22 3 16 57 26 96 3 3
Nick Martini L 30 LF 422 371 50 96 16 2 7 38 45 84 3 1
Adam Haseley L 24 CF 509 461 59 115 21 3 12 52 36 117 8 4
Rodolfo Duran R 22 C 301 286 32 62 11 1 12 36 12 84 0 0
Christian Bethancourt R 28 C 279 264 30 61 11 0 12 37 12 70 3 1
Rob Brantly L 30 C 288 264 31 65 11 1 6 27 18 47 0 1
Neil Walker B 34 2B 387 342 43 84 13 1 11 43 40 78 2 0
Nick Williams L 26 LF 475 439 59 109 20 4 19 65 26 142 3 2
Andrew Romine B 34 SS 356 328 39 78 11 3 5 26 20 72 10 3
Sean Rodríguez R 35 3B 198 170 27 33 6 1 8 23 22 70 1 1
Mikie Mahtook R 30 RF 443 400 52 91 14 3 19 57 34 121 9 4
Matt Szczur R 30 RF 186 165 24 40 9 1 5 21 18 37 1 2
Deivy Grullon R 24 C 467 421 52 97 20 0 19 61 41 158 1 0
Ronald Torreyes R 27 SS 345 325 37 83 13 2 6 29 11 41 2 1
Josh Harrison R 32 2B 379 347 40 85 15 2 8 36 19 69 8 3
Darick Hall L 24 1B 535 477 62 100 25 1 23 71 41 173 3 1
T.J. Rivera R 31 3B 298 278 32 75 15 1 7 36 12 52 1 1
Roman Quinn B 27 CF 234 210 28 49 8 4 5 22 19 68 15 4
Phil Gosselin R 31 2B 377 339 39 79 15 3 5 31 32 83 2 2
Andrew Knapp B 28 C 226 196 22 42 9 1 4 16 25 73 1 0
Luke Williams R 23 2B 511 460 55 97 20 3 11 45 39 134 20 9
Shane Robinson R 35 CF 325 295 36 70 9 1 3 22 23 40 7 2
Nick Maton L 23 SS 484 436 46 93 17 4 9 42 39 122 8 8
Austin Listi R 26 1B 499 441 55 97 18 2 15 55 45 126 1 2
Matt McBride R 35 1B 206 188 22 39 10 1 8 26 13 49 0 1
Nick Hundley R 36 C 226 210 21 45 11 1 8 26 14 71 0 1
Ali Castillo R 31 2B 456 424 43 105 17 4 4 36 21 66 4 6
Mickey Moniak L 22 CF 522 488 52 112 23 9 9 52 27 139 11 4
Simon Muzziotti L 21 CF 483 451 45 109 18 3 4 31 25 85 18 13
Jan Hernandez R 25 RF 332 303 37 59 10 2 14 40 24 145 3 3
Arquimedes Gamboa B 22 SS 480 425 40 76 11 6 4 28 48 150 15 8
Henri Lartigue B 25 C 335 305 30 55 9 2 7 28 26 116 2 2
Grenny Cumana R 24 RF 280 267 24 64 8 2 3 20 7 38 4 8
Cornelius Randolph L 23 LF 443 402 43 86 14 2 9 37 36 132 8 6
Josh Stephen L 22 LF 432 399 41 83 18 4 11 42 31 139 6 6

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
J.T. Realmuto .277 .333 .498 115 .222 .313 6.3 6 4.4 Thurman Munson
Bryce Harper .258 .384 .525 136 .267 .309 7.5 -1 4.2 Tim Salmon
Rhys Hoskins .241 .360 .493 122 .252 .283 6.3 1 3.2 Troy Glaus
Didi Gregorius .277 .318 .497 110 .220 .278 5.9 1 2.5 Bill Mazeroski
Jean Segura .291 .334 .434 100 .143 .315 5.6 0 2.4 Mark Grudzielanek
Alec Bohm .265 .327 .446 101 .181 .293 5.3 2 2.2 Hank Blalock
Andrew McCutchen .255 .358 .462 114 .207 .298 5.9 0 2.1 Woodie Held
Odubel Herrera .261 .321 .430 96 .170 .314 5.1 0 1.5 Marlon Byrd
Jay Bruce .249 .308 .512 110 .262 .271 5.7 0 1.4 Willie Kirkland
Scott Kingery .247 .298 .420 86 .173 .317 4.7 3 1.4 Bill Hall
Brad Miller .242 .321 .488 109 .245 .294 5.5 2 1.3 Beau Allred
Mitch Walding .187 .301 .369 76 .182 .316 3.7 6 0.9 Tom Quinlan
Jose Pirela .263 .309 .446 96 .183 .307 5.0 1 0.8 George Hinshaw
Nick Martini .259 .341 .369 88 .111 .318 4.6 2 0.7 Stu Pederson
Adam Haseley .249 .312 .386 83 .137 .310 4.3 -2 0.6 Felix Jose
Rodolfo Duran .217 .249 .388 64 .171 .263 3.3 5 0.5 Walt McKeel
Christian Bethancourt .231 .262 .409 73 .178 .269 3.8 2 0.5 Gustavo Molina
Rob Brantly .246 .302 .364 75 .117 .280 3.9 1 0.4 Brian Loyd
Neil Walker .246 .328 .386 88 .140 .289 4.6 -5 0.4 Andy Phillips
Nick Williams .248 .301 .442 92 .194 .324 4.8 -2 0.4 Scott Krause
Andrew Romine .238 .289 .335 64 .098 .291 3.6 3 0.4 Aaron Holbert
Sean Rodríguez .194 .296 .382 77 .188 .272 3.7 2 0.3 Dave McKay
Mikie Mahtook .228 .294 .420 85 .193 .277 4.3 1 0.3 Marc Sagmoen
Matt Szczur .242 .319 .400 88 .158 .285 4.4 2 0.3 Bubba Carpenter
Deivy Grullon .230 .300 .413 85 .183 .320 4.4 -11 0.3 Maximiliano Ramirez
Ronald Torreyes .255 .283 .363 69 .108 .277 3.7 2 0.2 Jerry Schunk
Josh Harrison .245 .296 .369 74 .124 .285 4.0 0 0.2 Warren Morris
Darick Hall .210 .290 .411 82 .201 .274 4.1 4 0.2 Jim Orsag
T.J. Rivera .270 .306 .406 86 .137 .311 4.6 -3 0.2 Garth Iorg
Roman Quinn .233 .303 .381 79 .148 .321 4.4 -3 0.1 Herm Winningham
Phil Gosselin .233 .299 .339 68 .106 .295 3.5 0 -0.1 Kevin Stocker
Andrew Knapp .214 .308 .332 69 .117 .319 3.6 -4 -0.2 Jack Fimple
Luke Williams .211 .279 .339 62 .128 .273 3.3 3 -0.2 Donnie Sadler
Shane Robinson .237 .294 .305 59 .068 .266 3.3 2 -0.2 Doug Dascenzo
Nick Maton .213 .280 .333 61 .119 .275 3.0 0 -0.5 Jimmy Alvarez
Austin Listi .220 .301 .372 76 .152 .273 3.8 0 -0.5 D.J. Boston
Matt McBride .207 .263 .399 71 .191 .237 3.5 -1 -0.5 Dave May
Nick Hundley .214 .265 .390 70 .176 .282 3.5 -6 -0.5 Mike Macfarlane
Ali Castillo .248 .283 .335 62 .087 .285 3.2 1 -0.6 Tom Runnells
Mickey Moniak .230 .271 .369 66 .139 .303 3.6 -4 -0.8 Jordan Schafer
Simon Muzziotti .242 .282 .322 59 .080 .290 3.0 1 -0.8 Eddie Lara
Jan Hernandez .195 .260 .380 65 .185 .313 3.2 -3 -1.1 Juan Camilo
Arquimedes Gamboa .179 .264 .261 40 .082 .266 2.2 3 -1.1 Anderson Machado
Henri Lartigue .180 .249 .292 42 .111 .264 2.3 -2 -1.2 Jose Molina
Grenny Cumana .240 .267 .318 54 .079 .270 2.5 -1 -1.4 Jim Reeder
Cornelius Randolph .214 .281 .326 59 .112 .295 3.0 -7 -2.0 Ben Candelaria
Josh Stephen .208 .266 .356 62 .148 .289 3.1 -8 -2.1 Tyrone Woods

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Aaron Nola R 27 12 8 3.57 32 32 194.0 168 77 24 64 213 3.58
Zack Wheeler R 30 10 8 4.02 29 29 177.0 172 79 23 52 170 3.83
Jake Arrieta R 34 8 8 4.45 23 23 129.3 128 64 20 47 111 4.56
Zach Eflin R 26 11 11 4.64 29 27 151.3 157 78 25 44 127 4.52
Vince Velasquez R 28 8 8 4.54 30 25 125.0 121 63 22 46 141 4.32
Ranger Suárez L 24 7 6 4.40 44 15 116.7 120 57 15 36 96 4.13
Nick Pivetta R 27 9 9 4.70 34 23 138.0 134 72 22 55 151 4.26
Héctor Neris R 31 5 3 3.48 67 0 64.7 51 25 10 24 92 3.46
Spencer Howard R 23 5 5 4.50 20 20 84.0 77 42 12 39 89 4.31
David Robertson R 35 5 3 3.42 50 0 50.0 38 19 5 23 66 3.22
Damon Jones L 25 5 6 4.88 24 23 103.3 92 56 12 78 118 4.67
Seranthony Domínguez R 25 4 2 3.40 45 0 45.0 35 17 4 21 57 3.20
Jose Alvarez L 31 4 3 3.70 67 1 58.3 58 24 5 20 51 3.57
Cristopher Sanchez L 23 3 3 4.68 25 12 73.0 75 38 7 39 56 4.50
Colton Eastman R 23 7 8 5.11 24 19 119.7 124 68 23 50 113 5.04
Connor Seabold R 24 4 5 4.98 18 17 86.7 90 48 17 26 81 4.76
Alejandro Requena R 23 8 10 5.10 22 20 102.3 108 58 14 50 81 4.84
David Parkinson L 24 8 9 5.13 22 22 108.7 108 62 20 50 107 4.98
Bailey Falter L 23 6 7 5.01 16 16 82.7 91 46 16 19 65 4.81
Nick Vincent R 33 3 2 4.07 49 2 55.3 55 25 8 14 50 4.01
Addison Russ R 25 6 5 3.95 55 0 57.0 49 25 7 24 69 3.62
Julian Garcia R 25 7 9 5.17 24 20 108.0 110 62 17 55 97 4.96
Cole Irvin L 26 5 7 5.20 29 20 128.0 143 74 24 35 93 4.98
Tyler Carr R 24 5 4 4.23 39 1 61.7 58 29 6 33 57 4.20
Connor Brogdon R 25 4 4 4.37 47 2 68.0 59 33 11 31 86 4.12
Austin Davis L 27 3 3 4.16 52 0 71.3 63 33 9 34 83 3.92
Trevor Bettencourt R 25 3 2 3.95 30 0 41.0 37 18 5 15 45 3.67
Adam Morgan L 30 2 2 3.99 53 0 38.3 35 17 4 16 39 3.75
Tommy Hunter R 33 3 2 4.01 44 0 42.7 42 19 6 10 34 4.12
Luke Leftwich R 26 2 2 4.28 39 1 54.7 48 26 8 27 66 4.15
Jared Hughes R 34 4 4 4.23 65 0 61.7 58 29 7 23 46 4.28
Robert Stock R 30 3 2 4.47 43 3 52.3 48 26 7 29 60 4.29
Vìctor Arano R 25 2 2 4.21 46 0 47.0 42 22 7 20 54 4.09
Ramon Rosso R 24 5 7 5.38 24 24 115.3 118 69 22 55 109 5.20
Pat Neshek R 39 2 2 4.08 34 0 28.7 29 13 5 4 23 4.26
Tyler Viza R 25 5 6 5.36 23 18 94.0 103 56 17 33 75 4.99
Enyel De Los Santos R 24 6 8 5.42 26 22 111.3 116 67 22 48 100 5.25
Blake Parker R 35 2 2 4.42 57 0 55.0 50 27 9 20 60 4.22
Mauricio Llovera R 24 4 6 5.40 18 16 83.3 85 50 16 39 82 5.11
Francisco Liriano L 36 3 3 4.45 62 0 60.7 55 30 8 34 62 4.53
Bud Norris R 35 3 3 4.46 45 0 40.3 38 20 6 19 46 4.25
Jakob Hernandez L 24 3 3 4.66 48 1 63.7 58 33 8 38 70 4.41
JD Hammer R 25 3 3 4.58 34 0 39.3 35 20 5 22 44 4.27
Fernando Salas R 35 3 3 4.65 48 0 50.3 52 26 9 15 48 4.49
Jeff Singer L 26 4 4 4.66 44 0 56.0 50 29 7 34 61 4.45
Garrett Cleavinger L 26 3 3 4.73 35 0 51.3 41 27 6 42 70 4.43
Drew Storen R 32 2 2 4.79 44 0 41.3 41 22 6 16 36 4.49
JoJo Romero L 23 6 9 5.66 22 22 105.0 114 66 20 52 88 5.47
Tyler Gilbert L 26 3 3 4.80 43 0 54.3 56 29 10 18 51 4.69
John Curtiss R 27 2 2 5.03 36 1 48.3 45 27 7 32 52 4.90
Edgar Garcia R 23 3 3 4.88 63 0 66.3 59 36 12 37 84 4.67
Adonis Medina R 23 6 8 5.74 22 21 102.0 112 65 19 49 81 5.45
Seth McGarry R 26 3 3 5.37 35 5 70.3 72 42 11 43 62 5.28
Kyle Dohy L 23 6 7 4.92 49 0 67.7 50 37 9 68 104 4.85
Drew Anderson R 26 4 6 5.85 18 16 80.0 87 52 16 39 67 5.57
Jason Vargas L 37 6 9 5.76 25 24 118.7 129 76 28 49 100 5.80
Grant Dyer R 24 2 2 5.19 41 0 52.0 55 30 10 19 47 4.97
Jonathan Hennigan L 25 3 4 5.31 43 0 59.3 58 35 7 43 55 5.03
Trevor Kelley R 26 5 6 5.46 56 0 64.3 71 39 13 24 51 5.34
Alexis Rivero R 25 2 4 6.60 28 4 43.7 51 32 10 26 31 6.52

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Nola 9.9 3.0 1.1 7.9% 26.4% .288 122 82 4.0 John Montefusco
Zack Wheeler 8.6 2.6 1.2 6.9% 22.7% .299 108 92 2.8 Dean Chance
Jake Arrieta 7.7 3.3 1.4 8.4% 19.8% .287 98 102 1.5 Bucky Walters
Zach Eflin 7.6 2.6 1.5 6.8% 19.5% .295 94 107 1.4 Bob Moose
Vince Velasquez 10.2 3.3 1.6 8.5% 26.2% .305 96 104 1.3 Dickie Noles
Ranger Suárez 7.4 2.8 1.2 7.2% 19.1% .300 99 101 1.2 Bob Miller
Nick Pivetta 9.8 3.6 1.4 9.2% 25.2% .306 93 108 1.1 Jim Beattie
Héctor Neris 12.8 3.3 1.4 8.9% 34.1% .293 125 80 0.9 Jason Isringhausen
Spencer Howard 9.5 4.2 1.3 10.6% 24.3% .293 97 103 0.9 Dick Ruthven
David Robertson 11.9 4.1 0.9 11.0% 31.6% .289 127 79 0.7 Jeff Nelson
Damon Jones 10.3 6.8 1.0 16.3% 24.6% .302 89 112 0.7 Les Cain
Seranthony Domínguez 11.4 4.2 0.8 11.0% 29.8% .292 128 78 0.7 Hector Carrasco
Jose Alvarez 7.9 3.1 0.8 8.0% 20.4% .306 118 85 0.7 Pablo Torrealba
Cristopher Sanchez 6.9 4.8 0.9 11.7% 16.9% .302 93 108 0.6 Chris Short
Colton Eastman 8.5 3.8 1.7 9.4% 21.2% .298 85 117 0.5 Al Nipper
Connor Seabold 8.4 2.7 1.8 7.0% 21.7% .297 87 115 0.5 Steve Finch
Alejandro Requena 7.1 4.4 1.2 10.8% 17.5% .301 85 117 0.5 Ben Hendrickson
David Parkinson 8.9 4.1 1.7 10.4% 22.2% .293 85 118 0.5 John Daniels
Bailey Falter 7.1 2.1 1.7 5.3% 18.3% .298 87 115 0.5 Rich Rundles
Nick Vincent 8.1 2.3 1.3 6.0% 21.5% .296 107 93 0.4 Dick Coffman
Addison Russ 10.9 3.8 1.1 9.8% 28.2% .298 110 91 0.4 Wayne Nix
Julian Garcia 8.1 4.6 1.4 11.3% 19.9% .298 84 119 0.4 Rick Berg
Cole Irvin 6.5 2.5 1.7 6.3% 16.6% .298 84 120 0.4 John O’Donoghue
Tyler Carr 8.3 4.8 0.9 12.0% 20.7% .295 103 97 0.4 Hal McKain
Connor Brogdon 11.4 4.1 1.5 10.5% 29.3% .296 100 100 0.3 Murry Dickson
Austin Davis 10.5 4.3 1.1 10.9% 26.7% .298 105 96 0.3 Shane Rawley
Trevor Bettencourt 9.9 3.3 1.1 8.6% 25.9% .299 110 91 0.3 Danny Graves
Adam Morgan 9.2 3.8 0.9 9.8% 23.8% .298 109 92 0.3 Harry Perkowski
Tommy Hunter 7.2 2.1 1.3 5.6% 19.0% .283 109 92 0.3 Dick Hall
Luke Leftwich 10.9 4.4 1.3 11.3% 27.6% .296 102 98 0.3 Brandon Kolb
Jared Hughes 6.7 3.4 1.0 8.7% 17.4% .276 103 97 0.3 Kent Tekulve
Robert Stock 10.3 5.0 1.2 12.4% 25.6% .304 97 103 0.3 Ryan Henderson
Vìctor Arano 10.3 3.8 1.3 10.0% 26.9% .294 103 97 0.2 Matt Ryan
Ramon Rosso 8.5 4.3 1.7 10.6% 21.0% .295 81 124 0.2 Randy Hennis
Pat Neshek 7.2 1.3 1.6 3.4% 19.7% .282 107 94 0.2 Hoyt Wilhelm
Tyler Viza 7.2 3.2 1.6 7.9% 18.0% .301 81 123 0.2 Joe Coleman
Enyel De Los Santos 8.1 3.9 1.8 9.7% 20.2% .294 80 124 0.1 Randy Hennis
Blake Parker 9.8 3.3 1.5 8.6% 25.8% .289 99 101 0.1 Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Mauricio Llovera 8.9 4.2 1.7 10.5% 22.0% .299 81 124 0.1 Geno Morones
Francisco Liriano 9.2 5.0 1.2 12.6% 23.0% .288 98 102 0.1 Luis Arroyo
Bud Norris 10.3 4.2 1.3 10.7% 26.0% .308 98 103 0.1 Darrin Babineaux
Jakob Hernandez 9.9 5.4 1.1 13.2% 24.4% .299 93 107 0.0 Carlos Vasquez
JD Hammer 10.1 5.0 1.1 12.6% 25.1% .297 95 105 0.0 Buzz Capra
Fernando Salas 8.6 2.7 1.6 7.0% 22.3% .303 94 107 0.0 A.J. Sager
Jeff Singer 9.8 5.5 1.1 13.5% 24.3% .295 93 107 0.0 Marcelino Lopez
Garrett Cleavinger 12.3 7.4 1.1 17.7% 29.5% .302 92 109 -0.1 Brian Snyder
Drew Storen 7.8 3.5 1.3 8.7% 19.6% .292 91 110 -0.1 Milo Candini
JoJo Romero 7.5 4.5 1.7 10.9% 18.4% .300 77 130 -0.1 Jeff Kaiser
Tyler Gilbert 8.4 3.0 1.7 7.6% 21.6% .299 91 110 -0.1 Will McEnaney
John Curtiss 9.7 6.0 1.3 14.4% 23.4% .297 87 115 -0.1 Joel Moore
Edgar Garcia 11.4 5.0 1.6 12.6% 28.7% .297 89 112 -0.2 Brian Bowles
Adonis Medina 7.1 4.3 1.7 10.6% 17.5% .300 76 132 -0.2 Justin Sturge
Seth McGarry 7.9 5.5 1.4 13.2% 19.1% .298 81 123 -0.2 Brett Merriman
Kyle Dohy 13.8 9.0 1.2 21.1% 32.3% .299 88 113 -0.2 Tyler Johnson
Drew Anderson 7.5 4.4 1.8 10.7% 18.4% .298 74 134 -0.3 Rob Purvis
Jason Vargas 7.6 3.7 2.1 9.2% 18.9% .290 76 132 -0.3 Bob Knepper
Grant Dyer 8.1 3.3 1.7 8.3% 20.5% .300 84 119 -0.3 Jon George
Jonathan Hennigan 8.3 6.5 1.1 15.4% 19.7% .300 82 122 -0.5 Brian Adams
Trevor Kelley 7.1 3.4 1.8 8.4% 17.8% .297 80 125 -0.6 Matt Wilhite
Alexis Rivero 6.4 5.4 2.1 12.6% 15.0% .297 66 152 -0.7 Mark Zamarripa

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies by Dan Szymborski!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
Mike Green
Member
Member
Mike Green

“So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band”

Schmoe sucks on the maracas, and should go back to baseball anyways.