2020 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

The Phillies struggled at times to score runs in 2019, generally underperforming their preseason expectations. While it’s easy to blame the guy making $300 million, Bryce Harper was far from the only issue and in the big picture, he’s still highly likely to be a run producer for the Phillies. A 125 wRC+ may not be what we expected from Harper back when he was a phenom, but he’s still a star, if not one with the “super” prefix.

There’s little to complain about when it comes to J.T. Realmuto‘s performance. Yes, his offensive production, like Harper’s, was a bit below expectations, but he’s an elite defensive catcher and the Phillies should probably get him signed to an extension sooner rather than later because all bets are off once he hits free agency. I would be shocked if the team signing him next year can secure his services for “just” Yasmani Grandal’s contract.

Rhys Hoskins’s power bat didn’t explode the way other sluggers’ did in 2019, but just getting him out of the outfield, where he was Todd Hundley-awful despite his robust efforts to improve, and back to first base added a lot of value. I’m a fan of the Didi Gregorius deal, and think he’s nearly as good a pillow contract signing as Josh Donaldson was last year. Jean Segura was solid at second.

But it’s hard to shake the feeling that the Phillies could have used one more player. Andrew McCutchen is a risk given his age and injury last year, and whether center field ends up manned by Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, or To Be Determined, I’d prepare to be underwhelmed. Scott Kingery, despite a solid 2019 campaign, is likely still a better fit as a versatile role player in heavy rotation, getting 400 PA per year and playing multiple positions. The Phillies missed out on a real impact addition to the offense and in this division, they could come to regret it.

Pitchers

Just like the lineup, it feels like both the rotation and the bullpen are missing a name. ZiPS has no complaints about Aaron Nola, a long-time favorite of the projections, or about this winter’s big pickup, Zack Wheeler. But when I look past Nola and Wheeler to Jake Arrieta, Zach Eflin, and Vince Velasquez, it feels like there’s a player missing between the tiers. A homecoming of sorts for Cole Hamels or an innings-eater like Tanner Roark would probably have fit the bill. Surgery to remove a bone spur isn’t as serious as Tommy John surgery by any means, but Arrieta’s effectiveness has become spotty, and any pitcher who misses time with an arm injury comes equipped with risk.

The good news is that there is depth in the rotation, so even if the Phillies could have used another arm, the need isn’t dire, and they do have reinforcements.

David Robertson will of course miss the 2020 season with Tommy John, so his projection is more out of curiosity than anything else. ZiPS likes the relief depth generally, but again, just one more pitcher may have taken this group to the next level. ZiPS is a fan of some of the minor league bullpen options, but it would be cheating to talk about them in this section.

Prospects

Alec Bohm didn’t have quite enough time in pro ball to get an official projection last year, but his combined High-A and Double-A .305/.378/.518 line put him on the ZiPS map with a great deal of urgency. He’s done enough (and the position is weak enough) that there’s a strong case to go with him at third base as quickly as possible and worry about what it means for Kingery later. And if Kingery works out, the Phillies shouldn’t have too many scruples about trading Bohm if it helps the team land an elite pitcher.

Spencer Howard’s parallel rise through the system has resulted in a similarly interesting projection, one which puts him on the edge of making a fight of it for a job at the back of the rotation, though with the Phillies rightfully risk-averse, it’s unlikely to be this spring. I suspect he won’t be quite as good in a full-time role as the projection suggests; the team’s been very conservative with his workload and if he pops up this summer, I think it’s more likely as a Julio Urías-type rather than as a traditional five-to-six inning starter.

ZiPS gives strong projections to many of the team’s minor league relievers. None are considered top prospects — again, they’re minor league relievers — but Connor Brogdon (a hard thrower with a circle-change), Luke Leftwich (the son of former major leaguer Phil), Tyler Carr, and Addison Russ (a splitter specialist) all have extremely promising, aggressive projections. Except for Leftwich, they’re all fairly recent draftees.

Unlike the Braves, relatively few of the Phillies’ key players are homegrown within, even if the team had the same prescription for developing the farm system during their rebuild that Atlanta did. The players who are key contributors from within (Hoskins, Nola, Héctor Neris, Seranthony Domínguez), were all brought in during the Amaro years. Now, there’s still plenty of time, and Amaro wasn’t let go until after the 2015 season, but the team has whiffed on some high picks so far. Mickey Moniak, in particular, has been one of ZiPS’s least favorite players, perhaps because he hasn’t picked up the obvious nickname of “The Maniac.”

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.