2020 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres.

Batters

It may be the world’s most depressing bounce-back season, but Eric Hosmer’s .262/.320/.425, 1.1 WAR projection would be his best season so far in San Diego. It’s shocking there are still six seasons left on Hosmer’s deal, short of an ill-advised opt-out after year five. Hosmer’s contract creates an awkward situation for the Padres, in that he represents the starting player most in need of an upgrade. Josh Naylor already projects to be as good a player and Ty France, projected at second, has a higher-projected OPS+. I actually held my breath to see if Aderlin Rodriguez, a minor league free agent who spent 2019 in El Paso, also projected to have a better bat (he didn’t).

Outside of Hosmer, there’s very little to complain about. Jurickson Profar had a weak 2019, but ran a BABIP nearly 20 points below the average pitcher’s, so ZiPS is highly skeptical that represents anything near a true ability. It would have seemed crazy to trade for Trent Grisham a year ago, but he was one of the players who most outperformed their projection, finally putting up a terrific minor league season (albeit in a supercharged offensive environment).

The Padres have done a solid job sorting out their excess outfielders and for the first time, we have a fairly clear idea of who is likely to play. ZiPS thinks the Manuel Margot/Franchy Cordero mix in center field is quietly underrated. It looks like the Padres have accepted that Wil Myers is a sunk cost and it’s better to pay him $60 million for three years to be a fourth outfielder than as a starter.

Pitchers

ZiPS doesn’t see anyone in the rotation challenging Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer for Cy Youngs in 2020, but just as with the outfielders, the sorting-out process is determining who should be a starter, who should be a reliever, and who should be traded to the Indians. There’s significant upside in the WAR projections for the pitchers; the Padres have been very cautious about stretching their hurlers, and the vanilla ZiPS projections reflect this with fairly low inning totals. ZiPS sees the Padres as roughly league-average, which they ought to be fine with given their offensive projections.

On last year’s WAR graphic, the rotation totaled 7.7 WAR. This year, it’s 12.1. It’s enough to put the Padres in real Wild Card contention, though they would likely need significant stumbling by the Dodgers to really make Los Angeles nervous about the NL West.

The bullpen is a fun group, a motley crew of castoffs, plus a converted starter or two. It adds up to a better bullpen projection than the Dodgers’. And it’s not just ZiPS, either; if you look at our depth charts, which are currently fueled by Steamer without any ZiPS, the Padres rank as the third-best bullpen as of now. Teams like the Rockies ought to be paying attention to what the Padres and Rays do to assemble excellent relief corps. (It’s not signing every name-brand reliever who hits free agency.)

Prospects

There’s still quite a bit of talent to come. Mackenzie Gore projects as a three-win pitcher already, if he throws 200 innings (he won’t). Being compared to a young Danny Jackson is a good thing, just in case you kids today, with your TikTok, and your “Ok boomers,” and your youth music, were unaware of his career. Before he started having shoulder issues, Jackson was very much the sort of power pitcher who would be recognizable today, with a hard, sinking fastball, a nasty slider, and no inclination to pitch to contact. Gore’s not exactly like Jackson, of course — he’s a curveball more than a slider guy — but it’s a promising comp. ZiPS gives Luis PatiƱo a very optimistic projection for a hurler who has barely peaked above High-A. ZiPS tends to be suspicious of lower-level pitchers, so the fact that he already projects as a legitimate major leaguer is an auspicious sign.

With all the skill at the top of their system, you might not realize how interesting much of the Padres’ fringe talent is. Ty France is likely a legitimate major leaguer, at least as a role player. Owen Miller, the team’s third round pick in 2018 who hit .260/.355/.430 in his first full minor league season up at Double-A Amarillo, also falls into this category despite the lack of buzz, and recent pickup Jake Cronenworth may be even better. In this same vein, ZiPS is intrigued by Travis Radke, a big, soft-tossing lefty who fared extremely well in his first run at the very pitcher-unfriendly Pacific Coast League. Radke’s not going to hit many prospect lists, but he’s the type of pitcher good teams try to snag for free and see what happens as the seventh or eighth man in the bullpen. Call Radke a Chaz Roe Lister.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Manny Machado R 27 3B 677 608 85 164 31 2 33 100 61 122 7 3
Tommy Pham R 32 LF 586 505 84 137 25 3 21 63 72 125 20 6
Fernando Tatis Jr. R 21 SS 428 385 65 108 17 6 20 60 34 121 17 6
Trent Grisham L 23 RF 585 500 75 120 21 7 20 66 76 125 10 5
Jurickson Profar B 27 2B 524 462 68 114 26 3 16 59 50 79 8 1
Ty France R 25 3B 572 509 70 130 26 2 19 72 37 113 2 3
Manuel Margot R 25 CF 514 469 61 118 23 6 12 48 38 97 20 6
Wil Myers R 29 LF 512 455 63 109 24 2 21 65 52 156 16 5
Francisco Mejia B 24 C 426 391 45 98 21 3 12 43 23 88 2 1
Jake Cronenworth L 26 SS 488 438 56 110 20 4 6 38 42 87 11 5
Austin Hedges R 27 C 366 335 35 73 15 1 15 50 24 107 2 1
Owen Miller R 23 SS 553 510 58 128 24 3 8 49 35 94 4 5
Eric Hosmer L 30 1B 650 595 73 156 27 2 22 90 50 141 3 3
Franchy Cordero L 25 CF 353 321 44 71 13 6 13 47 27 132 8 2
Josh Naylor L 23 RF 559 503 67 130 27 1 17 67 52 92 3 2
Luis Torrens R 24 C 439 399 44 94 22 2 8 42 33 93 1 2
Greg Garcia L 30 2B 335 282 38 68 11 2 4 24 44 71 1 2
Jason Vosler L 26 3B 478 428 54 94 19 3 15 50 40 134 1 1
Luis Campusano R 21 C 462 417 51 99 22 1 9 53 37 77 0 0
Michael Gettys R 24 CF 531 491 62 99 22 5 20 65 32 200 13 6
Esteban Quiroz L 28 2B 342 299 48 70 16 0 9 41 35 79 3 2
Ian Kinsler R 38 2B 348 319 38 74 16 0 9 28 24 55 5 5
Boog Powell L 27 CF 378 331 44 78 14 1 5 26 41 91 11 4
Ivan Castillo B 25 2B 451 422 42 104 20 4 5 35 17 73 9 5
Seth Mejias-Brean R 29 SS 482 444 47 105 16 3 8 41 32 98 3 2
Webster Rivas R 29 C 247 225 24 52 9 1 4 20 18 54 1 0
Aderlin Rodriguez R 28 1B 441 412 50 103 20 1 16 55 20 97 0 1
Hudson Potts R 21 3B 517 475 55 96 22 1 18 57 34 179 3 1
Peter Van Gansen L 26 SS 353 322 33 68 11 1 6 28 26 80 1 2
Allen Cordoba R 24 3B 435 401 40 90 13 4 5 31 23 98 15 10
Chris Stewart R 38 C 108 98 10 20 3 0 1 7 7 16 0 0
Edward Olivares R 24 RF 568 523 63 122 22 5 12 54 32 127 22 9
Gabriel Arias R 20 SS 524 491 50 105 19 3 13 53 26 169 5 4
Rodrigo Orozco B 25 LF 409 371 42 87 15 2 2 25 33 83 11 7
Matthew Batten R 25 2B 367 330 37 73 12 3 4 27 30 97 7 5
Taylor Kohlwey L 25 LF 338 299 33 62 11 3 5 25 29 98 5 4
Taylor Trammell L 22 LF 516 455 53 93 12 4 9 37 53 146 17 10
Eguy Rosario R 20 3B 539 498 51 105 22 4 10 49 33 146 13 10
Jorge Ona R 23 LF 332 301 33 61 12 1 8 31 25 108 1 3
Jeisson Rosario L 20 CF 536 461 56 93 14 4 4 31 66 150 10 8
Brad Zunica L 24 1B 447 400 44 76 18 2 14 45 39 164 1 1

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Manny Machado .270 .337 .490 120 .220 .289 6.1 4 4.5 Adrian Beltre
Tommy Pham .271 .368 .457 122 .186 .323 6.4 1 3.4 Gary Matthews
Fernando Tatis Jr. .281 .346 .512 128 .231 .361 6.8 -3 3.1 Alex Rodriguez
Trent Grisham .240 .342 .430 107 .190 .282 5.2 6 2.7 Michael Cuddyer
Jurickson Profar .247 .331 .420 101 .173 .267 5.1 1 2.5 Steve Lombardozzi
Ty France .255 .330 .426 103 .171 .294 5.0 -2 2.2 Scott Cooper
Manuel Margot .252 .309 .403 91 .151 .294 4.7 7 2.2 Tony Mota
Wil Myers .240 .318 .440 102 .200 .317 5.1 -1 1.5 Ryan Raburn
Francisco Mejia .251 .299 .412 90 .161 .296 4.4 1 1.5 Angel Salome
Jake Cronenworth .251 .322 .356 84 .105 .301 4.2 1 1.5 Ron Oester
Austin Hedges .218 .274 .403 80 .185 .272 3.8 6 1.3 Dann Bilardello
Owen Miller .251 .306 .357 79 .106 .294 3.8 2 1.2 Ron Wotus
Eric Hosmer .262 .320 .425 99 .163 .310 4.9 -1 1.1 Keith Moreland
Franchy Cordero .221 .285 .421 87 .199 .330 4.3 2 1.1 Kenny Kelly
Josh Naylor .258 .329 .417 100 .159 .287 5.0 -5 0.9 Ed Kranepool
Luis Torrens .236 .295 .361 76 .125 .289 3.7 2 0.9 Donnie Scott
Greg Garcia .241 .351 .337 88 .096 .309 4.1 0 0.9 Russ Johnson
Jason Vosler .220 .293 .383 81 .164 .283 3.9 1 0.8 Casey Webster
Luis Campusano .237 .301 .360 78 .122 .272 3.8 -2 0.8 Jeff Reed
Michael Gettys .202 .255 .389 71 .187 .292 3.4 7 0.8 Gerald Williams
Esteban Quiroz .234 .323 .378 89 .144 .289 4.3 -1 0.8 Bret Barberie
Ian Kinsler .232 .290 .367 76 .135 .255 3.6 3 0.6 Rico Rossy
Boog Powell .236 .319 .329 76 .094 .311 3.8 -1 0.5 Dave Brundage
Ivan Castillo .246 .281 .348 69 .102 .288 3.5 5 0.5 Ricky Bell
Seth Mejias-Brean .236 .293 .340 71 .104 .287 3.5 0 0.4 Wilson Delgado
Webster Rivas .231 .293 .333 69 .102 .287 3.5 1 0.4 Dave Parrish
Aderlin Rodriguez .250 .293 .420 90 .170 .291 4.4 -2 0.1 Walter Young
Hudson Potts .202 .263 .366 68 .164 .281 3.3 0 0.0 Corey Smith
Peter Van Gansen .211 .269 .307 56 .096 .263 2.7 3 0.0 Roger Burnett
Allen Cordoba .224 .279 .314 60 .090 .285 2.9 4 -0.1 Jhon Florentino
Chris Stewart .204 .262 .265 44 .061 .235 2.4 0 -0.2 Tony Pena
Edward Olivares .233 .286 .363 74 .130 .286 3.7 0 -0.2 Fredrick Tiburcio
Gabriel Arias .214 .255 .344 60 .130 .298 2.9 1 -0.2 Mario Ramirez
Rodrigo Orozco .235 .299 .302 64 .067 .297 3.1 5 -0.3 Eric Mangham
Matthew Batten .221 .290 .312 63 .091 .301 3.0 -1 -0.3 Ross Jones
Taylor Kohlwey .207 .289 .314 63 .107 .291 3.0 1 -0.5 David Espinosa
Taylor Trammell .204 .293 .308 63 .103 .280 3.0 4 -0.5 Roger Bernadina
Eguy Rosario .211 .264 .331 60 .120 .278 2.8 1 -0.7 Willie Lozado
Jorge Ona .203 .271 .329 61 .126 .286 2.9 -3 -1.1 Ray Suplee
Jeisson Rosario .202 .305 .275 59 .074 .290 2.7 -8 -1.2 Bruce Fields
Brad Zunica .190 .268 .350 66 .160 .279 3.1 -7 -1.6 Alan Rick

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Chris Paddack R 24 10 9 3.68 28 28 159.0 140 65 24 37 174
Joey Lucchesi L 27 9 9 3.98 28 28 147.0 137 65 19 51 146
Zach Davies R 27 9 9 4.10 29 29 151.3 155 69 19 48 105
MacKenzie Gore L 21 6 5 3.62 21 21 92.0 80 37 9 39 105
Kirby Yates R 33 4 2 2.60 56 0 55.3 39 16 7 16 87
Luis Patino R 20 7 7 3.91 21 21 94.3 84 41 8 49 98
Dinelson Lamet R 27 7 7 4.09 23 23 110.0 92 50 15 53 138
Matt Strahm L 28 7 7 3.92 43 14 101.0 95 44 15 29 107
Drew Pomeranz L 31 4 3 3.24 71 0 66.7 51 24 6 32 93
Jacob Nix R 24 4 5 4.15 14 14 69.3 69 32 10 19 62
Craig Stammen R 36 6 5 3.49 64 0 69.7 65 27 8 16 66
Garrett Richards R 32 3 3 3.99 11 11 56.3 51 25 7 20 57
Jesse Scholtens R 26 6 7 4.68 24 21 123.0 129 64 17 44 100
David Bednar R 25 5 4 3.52 56 0 69.0 58 27 6 33 82
Nick Margevicius L 24 7 9 4.69 28 24 128.7 143 67 19 32 94
Jose Castillo L 24 3 3 3.57 60 0 63.0 48 25 8 25 83
Kyle Lloyd R 29 6 7 4.66 26 16 102.3 105 53 13 44 84
Andres Munoz R 21 5 4 3.56 56 0 55.7 41 22 5 34 78
Caleb Boushley R 26 4 5 4.55 27 9 91.0 98 46 13 24 69
Cal Quantrill R 25 8 11 4.88 28 25 134.7 142 73 21 46 111
Brett Kennedy R 25 5 7 4.81 17 17 88.0 92 47 13 34 70
Elliot Ashbeck R 26 4 5 4.52 35 7 89.7 93 45 12 30 71
Luis Perdomo R 27 3 3 3.99 59 0 79.0 77 35 9 28 68
Adrian Morejon L 21 3 3 4.70 20 18 51.7 49 27 8 27 58
Brady Feigl L 29 2 2 3.92 29 1 39.0 40 17 4 12 29
Travis Radke L 27 3 3 4.02 48 0 71.7 70 32 8 25 64
Pedro Avila R 23 5 6 4.90 18 15 86.3 85 47 11 49 80
Michel Baez R 24 4 4 3.95 45 0 57.0 50 25 5 32 62
Evan Miller R 25 4 4 4.03 46 0 60.3 58 27 5 27 52
Aaron Loup L 32 0 0 3.72 39 0 29.0 28 12 2 11 28
Robbie Erlin L 29 2 2 4.43 43 4 81.3 87 40 13 15 67
Kyle Barraclough R 30 3 3 4.09 61 0 55.0 44 25 6 37 69
Aaron Leasher L 24 6 9 5.02 23 18 109.3 116 61 14 58 84
Trey Wingenter R 26 2 3 4.23 56 1 55.3 42 26 8 33 77
Carlos Belen R 24 3 3 4.18 49 0 66.7 66 31 6 29 55
Steven Wilson R 25 3 3 4.25 43 0 59.3 52 28 8 32 71
Paco Rodriguez L 29 2 3 4.61 26 1 41.0 42 21 5 17 33
Tyler Higgins R 29 3 3 4.56 37 1 51.3 52 26 9 16 48
Miguel Diaz R 25 3 4 5.13 26 9 59.7 56 34 10 35 64
Dillon Overton L 28 6 9 5.24 25 20 110.0 124 64 21 34 82
Gerardo Reyes R 27 4 5 4.52 56 0 63.7 55 32 8 40 78
Travis Radke L 27 3 3 4.02 48 0 71.7 70 32 8 25 64
Emmanuel Ramirez R 25 6 9 5.24 26 19 115.0 123 67 20 53 98
Sammy Solis L 31 1 2 4.98 39 0 34.3 32 19 7 17 41
Fred Schlichtholz L 24 1 1 4.81 33 0 48.7 47 26 6 31 44
Jordan Guerrero L 26 5 8 5.35 26 18 104.3 116 62 16 53 77
Ronald Bolanos R 23 8 12 5.43 28 25 129.3 132 78 21 74 118
Javy Guerra R 24 1 2 4.86 67 0 66.7 70 36 11 25 56
Cody Tyler L 25 3 4 4.91 36 0 62.3 67 34 11 22 50
Reggie Lawson R 22 3 6 5.73 16 15 75.3 78 48 13 48 70
Bryan Mitchell R 29 2 4 5.75 20 15 72.0 81 46 12 39 49
Dauris Valdez R 24 1 2 5.13 46 0 54.3 50 31 8 39 60
Dietrich Enns L 29 7 12 5.55 25 22 120.0 134 74 22 55 87
Chris Rowley R 29 4 8 5.82 24 16 102.0 115 66 19 46 65
Franklin Van Gurp R 24 3 5 5.60 40 0 62.7 60 39 9 53 64
Jerry Keel L 26 6 10 5.84 27 23 138.7 159 90 27 59 98
Blake Rogers R 26 2 3 5.73 48 2 75.3 82 48 13 43 61
Lake Bachar R 25 4 8 6.23 24 18 108.3 119 75 24 66 93

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Paddack 9.8 2.1 1.4 5.7% 26.7% .284 109 91 3.65 2.6 Mike Mussina
Joey Lucchesi 8.9 3.1 1.2 8.2% 23.4% .293 101 99 3.91 1.9 Steve Trout
Zach Davies 6.2 2.9 1.1 7.4% 16.1% .288 98 102 4.38 1.8 Dock Ellis
MacKenzie Gore 10.3 3.8 0.9 9.9% 26.6% .301 111 90 3.44 1.6 Danny Jackson
Kirby Yates 14.2 2.6 1.1 7.2% 39.2% .296 155 65 2.55 1.4 Tom Henke
Luis Patino 9.3 4.7 0.8 11.8% 23.6% .298 103 97 3.76 1.3 Mike Payne
Dinelson Lamet 11.3 4.3 1.2 11.2% 29.1% .294 98 102 3.89 1.3 J.R. Richard
Matt Strahm 9.5 2.6 1.3 6.8% 25.1% .297 103 97 3.85 1.2 Ray Fontenot
Drew Pomeranz 12.6 4.3 0.8 11.4% 33.2% .304 124 80 3.00 0.8 Scott Sauerbeck
Jacob Nix 8.0 2.5 1.3 6.4% 21.0% .295 97 103 4.09 0.8 Early Wynn
Craig Stammen 8.5 2.1 1.0 5.6% 23.0% .292 115 87 3.47 0.8 Lindy McDaniel
Garrett Richards 9.1 3.2 1.1 8.4% 24.1% .289 101 99 3.84 0.7 Mike LaCoss
Jesse Scholtens 7.3 3.2 1.2 8.1% 18.5% .301 86 116 4.42 0.6 Michael Macdonald
David Bednar 10.7 4.3 0.8 11.1% 27.5% .301 114 87 3.37 0.6 Clay Bryant
Nick Margevicius 6.6 2.2 1.3 5.7% 16.8% .305 86 116 4.38 0.6 Bobby Livingston
Jose Castillo 11.9 3.6 1.1 9.5% 31.7% .282 113 89 3.39 0.5 Kent Mercker
Kyle Lloyd 7.4 3.9 1.1 9.7% 18.5% .300 86 116 4.48 0.5 Jim Bagby
Andres Munoz 12.6 5.5 0.8 14.1% 32.4% .295 113 88 3.38 0.5 Mark Littell
Caleb Boushley 6.8 2.4 1.3 6.1% 17.5% .301 89 113 4.31 0.4 Dick Bosman
Cal Quantrill 7.4 3.1 1.4 7.8% 18.9% .300 83 121 4.58 0.4 Michael Macdonald
Brett Kennedy 7.2 3.5 1.3 8.8% 18.0% .297 84 119 4.67 0.3 Mike LaCoss
Elliot Ashbeck 7.1 3.0 1.2 7.7% 18.2% .298 89 112 4.34 0.3 Clay Carroll
Luis Perdomo 7.7 3.2 1.0 8.3% 20.1% .294 101 99 4.00 0.3 Dale Murray
Adrian Morejon 10.1 4.7 1.4 11.7% 25.2% .304 86 117 4.52 0.2 Derek Thompson
Brady Feigl 6.7 2.8 0.9 7.1% 17.3% .298 103 97 3.95 0.2 Leo Kiely
Travis Radke 8.0 3.1 1.0 8.1% 20.7% .298 100 100 3.89 0.2 Jim Crawford
Pedro Avila 8.3 5.1 1.1 12.5% 20.4% .300 82 122 4.69 0.2 Blaine Boyer
Michel Baez 9.8 5.1 0.8 12.6% 24.5% .300 102 98 3.83 0.2 Turk Farrell
Evan Miller 7.8 4.0 0.7 10.2% 19.5% .298 100 100 3.88 0.2 Ray Herbert
Aaron Loup 8.7 3.4 0.6 8.7% 22.0% .313 108 92 3.28 0.2 Randy Tomlin
Robbie Erlin 7.4 1.7 1.4 4.4% 19.6% .302 91 110 4.16 0.2 Chris Key
Kyle Barraclough 11.3 6.1 1.0 15.0% 28.0% .290 98 102 4.11 0.1 Colter Bean
Aaron Leasher 6.9 4.8 1.2 11.6% 16.8% .302 80 125 4.90 0.1 Derek Thompson
Trey Wingenter 12.5 5.4 1.3 13.6% 31.8% .283 95 105 4.07 0.1 Brad Voyles
Carlos Belen 7.4 3.9 0.8 9.9% 18.7% .300 96 104 4.01 0.1 Ray Herbert
Steven Wilson 10.8 4.9 1.2 12.3% 27.2% .299 95 105 4.16 0.0 Anthony Chavez
Paco Rodriguez 7.2 3.7 1.1 9.4% 18.2% .298 87 114 4.40 -0.1 Danny Coombs
Tyler Higgins 8.4 2.8 1.6 7.2% 21.7% .297 88 113 4.52 -0.1 Scott Winchester
Miguel Diaz 9.7 5.3 1.5 13.0% 23.8% .293 79 127 4.97 -0.1 Regular Bob Gibson
Dillon Overton 6.7 2.8 1.7 7.0% 16.9% .300 77 130 5.10 -0.2 Jeff Ballard
Gerardo Reyes 11.0 5.7 1.1 14.0% 27.3% .301 89 112 4.25 -0.2 Mike MacDougal
Travis Radke 8.0 3.1 1.0 8.1% 20.7% .298 100 100 3.89 0.2 Jim Crawford
Emmanuel Ramirez 7.7 4.1 1.6 10.2% 18.9% .301 77 130 5.12 -0.2 Sean White
Sammy Solis 10.7 4.5 1.8 11.2% 27.0% .294 81 124 4.93 -0.3 Eddie Oropesa
Fred Schlichtholz 8.1 5.7 1.1 13.8% 19.6% .293 84 119 4.89 -0.3 Mike Venafro
Jordan Guerrero 6.6 4.6 1.4 11.0% 16.0% .305 75 133 5.22 -0.3 Matt Coenen
Ronald Bolanos 8.2 5.1 1.5 12.5% 19.9% .298 74 135 5.18 -0.4 Jason Phillips
Javy Guerra 7.6 3.4 1.5 8.6% 19.2% .298 83 121 4.77 -0.5 Rich DeLosSantos
Cody Tyler 7.2 3.2 1.6 8.0% 18.2% .298 82 122 4.93 -0.5 Brian Henderson
Reggie Lawson 8.4 5.7 1.6 13.7% 19.9% .301 70 142 5.48 -0.5 Jake Joseph
Bryan Mitchell 6.1 4.9 1.5 11.7% 14.7% .300 70 143 5.61 -0.5 Brian Harrison
Dauris Valdez 9.9 6.5 1.3 15.5% 23.9% .298 78 127 5.04 -0.6 Marc Pisciotta
Dietrich Enns 6.5 4.1 1.7 10.1% 15.9% .298 73 138 5.49 -0.6 Jimmy Anderson
Chris Rowley 5.7 4.1 1.7 9.9% 14.0% .292 69 145 5.68 -0.9 Elliot Brown
Franklin Van Gurp 9.2 7.6 1.3 17.6% 21.3% .298 72 139 5.54 -1.0 Lloyd Allen
Jerry Keel 6.4 3.8 1.8 9.4% 15.5% .301 69 145 5.57 -1.1 Wes Whisler
Blake Rogers 7.3 5.1 1.6 12.3% 17.5% .303 70 142 5.52 -1.2 Jeremy Salyers
Lake Bachar 7.7 5.5 2.0 13.0% 18.3% .298 65 155 6.17 -1.4 Mark Woodyard

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players that are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Based on those comps, I’d follow any HS outfielder named Chris Lucchesi VERY closely.