2020 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres.

Batters

It may be the world’s most depressing bounce-back season, but Eric Hosmer’s .262/.320/.425, 1.1 WAR projection would be his best season so far in San Diego. It’s shocking there are still six seasons left on Hosmer’s deal, short of an ill-advised opt-out after year five. Hosmer’s contract creates an awkward situation for the Padres, in that he represents the starting player most in need of an upgrade. Josh Naylor already projects to be as good a player and Ty France, projected at second, has a higher-projected OPS+. I actually held my breath to see if Aderlin Rodriguez, a minor league free agent who spent 2019 in El Paso, also projected to have a better bat (he didn’t).

Outside of Hosmer, there’s very little to complain about. Jurickson Profar had a weak 2019, but ran a BABIP nearly 20 points below the average pitcher’s, so ZiPS is highly skeptical that represents anything near a true ability. It would have seemed crazy to trade for Trent Grisham a year ago, but he was one of the players who most outperformed their projection, finally putting up a terrific minor league season (albeit in a supercharged offensive environment).

The Padres have done a solid job sorting out their excess outfielders and for the first time, we have a fairly clear idea of who is likely to play. ZiPS thinks the Manuel Margot/Franchy Cordero mix in center field is quietly underrated. It looks like the Padres have accepted that Wil Myers is a sunk cost and it’s better to pay him $60 million for three years to be a fourth outfielder than as a starter.

Pitchers

ZiPS doesn’t see anyone in the rotation challenging Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer for Cy Youngs in 2020, but just as with the outfielders, the sorting-out process is determining who should be a starter, who should be a reliever, and who should be traded to the Indians. There’s significant upside in the WAR projections for the pitchers; the Padres have been very cautious about stretching their hurlers, and the vanilla ZiPS projections reflect this with fairly low inning totals. ZiPS sees the Padres as roughly league-average, which they ought to be fine with given their offensive projections.

On last year’s WAR graphic, the rotation totaled 7.7 WAR. This year, it’s 12.1. It’s enough to put the Padres in real Wild Card contention, though they would likely need significant stumbling by the Dodgers to really make Los Angeles nervous about the NL West.

The bullpen is a fun group, a motley crew of castoffs, plus a converted starter or two. It adds up to a better bullpen projection than the Dodgers’. And it’s not just ZiPS, either; if you look at our depth charts, which are currently fueled by Steamer without any ZiPS, the Padres rank as the third-best bullpen as of now. Teams like the Rockies ought to be paying attention to what the Padres and Rays do to assemble excellent relief corps. (It’s not signing every name-brand reliever who hits free agency.)

Prospects

There’s still quite a bit of talent to come. Mackenzie Gore projects as a three-win pitcher already, if he throws 200 innings (he won’t). Being compared to a young Danny Jackson is a good thing, just in case you kids today, with your TikTok, and your “Ok boomers,” and your youth music, were unaware of his career. Before he started having shoulder issues, Jackson was very much the sort of power pitcher who would be recognizable today, with a hard, sinking fastball, a nasty slider, and no inclination to pitch to contact. Gore’s not exactly like Jackson, of course — he’s a curveball more than a slider guy — but it’s a promising comp. ZiPS gives Luis Patiño a very optimistic projection for a hurler who has barely peaked above High-A. ZiPS tends to be suspicious of lower-level pitchers, so the fact that he already projects as a legitimate major leaguer is an auspicious sign.

With all the skill at the top of their system, you might not realize how interesting much of the Padres’ fringe talent is. Ty France is likely a legitimate major leaguer, at least as a role player. Owen Miller, the team’s third round pick in 2018 who hit .260/.355/.430 in his first full minor league season up at Double-A Amarillo, also falls into this category despite the lack of buzz, and recent pickup Jake Cronenworth may be even better. In this same vein, ZiPS is intrigued by Travis Radke, a big, soft-tossing lefty who fared extremely well in his first run at the very pitcher-unfriendly Pacific Coast League. Radke’s not going to hit many prospect lists, but he’s the type of pitcher good teams try to snag for free and see what happens as the seventh or eighth man in the bullpen. Call Radke a Chaz Roe Lister.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players that are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

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