2020 ZiPS Projections: Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers.

Batters

I should start by making one important note about the Rangers: I’m projecting using current park factors. The club believes that the wind patterns in Globe Life Field will keep it fairly neutral, though they also thought that before their current home opened. Keeping the old park factors until data tells me otherwise keeps the numbers in a similar context as past Rangers teams, making the raw, non-neutralized numbers easiest to read. And remember, that’s why we have park-neutral numbers included as well!

The increase in league offense, combined with Globe Life Park being a hitter-friendly environment, served to camouflage the problems with the Rangers’ lineup in 2019. The team’s wRC+ of 88 was in the pits of the American League, tied with the Orioles, though thankfully lapping the woeful Tigers’ mark of 77. The lineup that will open at Globe Life Field isn’t an identical one, but it features much of the same cast that had issues putting runs on the scoreboard last year.

Todd Frazier signed and probably won’t make anyone forget about Adrian Beltre. Frazier has value as a role player, but he’s not someone who represents a big step forward for the offense. On the contrary, according to the projections, too much Frazier would actually hurt the team if they can’t find enough playing time for Nick Solak at third base and other positions such as center field. ZiPS is on Team Solak, forecasting him for the second-most WAR among the team’s position players if the Rangers find him as much playing time as the projection does. Robinson Chirinos improves the team’s catching situation, but glove or not, Jeff Mathis will do his best to drag the position’s win total to zero. Outside of Nomar Mazara’s departure, many of the same players, likely with the same issues, will return.

ZiPS’ relatively disappointing win projection for Joey Gallo is more due to the number of plate appearances it projects than anything else. Gallo is one of the biggest points of disagreements between Steamer and ZiPS, with ZiPS projecting nearly 50 more points of OPS than Steamer, despite ZiPS projecting a slightly lower offensive level for the league than Steamer. (Similarly, ZiPS is a bigger backer of Danny Santana.)

In a way, Texas’ offense is the opposite of the Rockies’. Colorado always has a couple of superstars but has proven to be serially incompetent at finding a supporting cast. In Texas’ case, they’re still looking for those two guys who can put up four-to-six wins each in the standings. And that’s a problem because the A’s and Astros have found those, and more. It’s not as bleak as it sounds; there are few actively terrible players in the lineup. It’s just that each seems to have a fatal flaw that keeps them from being truly valuable. Ronald Guzmán can’t hit lefties. Rougned Odor‘s plate discipline is terribad, and he disappears for months at a time. Willie Calhoun‘s offense hasn’t developed and he’s likely a drag defensively. Elvis Andrus has regressed back towards being an overpaid stopgap. Shin-Soo Choo’s power is run-of-the-mill for a DH in 2019-2020 baseball. All these guys are interesting in some way, but as a whole, they’re just not all that good. Texas’s skinny rebuild continues and they’ll need to find some stars to pair with Gallo.

Pitchers

The results are a lot sunnier here. ZiPS has zero concerns about a top three of Lance Lynn, Corey Kluber, and Mike Minor, and with Kyle Gibson and Kolby Allard projected in average territory and Jordan Lyles vaguely average-adjacent, a little bit of luck could leave the Rangers with one of the better rotations in the league. If forced to guess where the rotation ranked right now, I’d guess somewhere in the ninth-to-13th range or so. It’s a good group, though I’d rather the team give Allard every opportunity to start unless they can figure out the black magic that the Brewers found with Lyles that the Pirates could not.

If the projections are any indication, the bullpen may have the highest ratio of WAR-to-fame of any in baseball this side of Tampa. Nobody’s projected to have a wild, Josh Hader/Aroldis Chapman line, but ZiPS does project José Leclerc and his chlidder to work more like they did in 2018 than 2019 and has him backed up by an almost grotesquely deep crew. If I’ve counted correctly, ZiPS projects Texas to have a whopping 12 relievers with an ERA+ of 100 or better. The only negatives are that two of the pitchers currently projected to make the bullpen in our Depth Charts, Nick Goody and Cody Allen, are not among that dozen.

ZiPS probably won’t project Texas to have a top five relief corps when all is said and done, but I’m confident they’ll end up in the top 10 and be a stable, dependable group in 2020.

Prospects

It’s a good thing that the Rangers have shown every indication that, like the Phillies before them, they plan to spend when the time comes. That is a good thing, because at least in the silicon eyes of ZiPS, there isn’t a lot of immediate help on the farm system. I’m not counting Solak as a prospect as this point, but if I did, ZiPS would send him a Valentine’s card on Friday.

Leody Taveras quickly taking over center field would be a nice result, and ZiPS continually has terrific minor league defensive translations for him, but we’re still waiting for that big offensive breakout. He made progress in 2019, but his bat still doesn’t project to get him to, say, the Rangers version of Byron Buxton, though perhaps I’m being greedy. ZiPS projects him to be a major leaguer, but as of right now, he still needs another offensive bump.

ZiPS likes Joe Palumbo well enough as a back-of-the-rotation guy, which I believe is the scouting consensus, but doesn’t see huge upside out of him, nor is he particularly young. On the fringier side, ZiPS is intrigued by Tyler Phillips, who I keep accidentally calling Trevor because of one of the characters in Grand Theft Auto V. He’s a nicer dude than the video game guy. His stuff isn’t terribly flashy, but I’ll give any 23-year-old with plus command a look-see.

One prospect the projections really like is Sherten Apostel, a big third baseman whose defensive reputation isn’t as poor as it usually is for guys of this ilk. ZiPS actually thinks his defense is fine — at least for now — and while he doesn’t have major league polish yet, his raw power is there, to the point that ZiPS thinks he’d hit 20 homers if playing full-time in the majors in 2020 (though still at replacement-level overall). ZiPS thinks he will be an almost-average third baseman at his best, and that’s good enough to justify keeping an eye on him.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Joey Gallo L 26 RF 445 367 76 82 17 2 36 76 71 171 6 2
Nick Solak R 25 2B 605 542 82 149 25 3 20 79 50 130 7 2
Robinson Chirinos R 36 C 368 311 44 71 16 1 14 47 40 106 1 1
Danny Santana B 29 CF 486 454 69 121 25 5 21 68 24 130 19 7
Todd Frazier R 34 3B 504 442 63 109 19 1 21 76 49 107 4 4
Elvis Andrus R 31 SS 615 567 78 156 30 4 12 63 37 91 22 8
Shin-Soo Choo L 37 DH 578 495 74 124 25 1 18 50 69 143 11 1
Rougned Odor L 26 2B 602 546 84 129 28 2 29 89 45 165 13 9
Willie Calhoun L 25 LF 552 502 74 136 27 2 26 75 42 81 2 1
Matt M. Duffy R 29 3B 387 346 41 96 17 2 5 34 32 58 5 3
Andy Ibáñez R 27 3B 508 464 60 119 24 2 14 51 36 89 5 6
Ronald Guzmán L 25 1B 478 430 56 104 22 2 16 57 41 129 2 2
Sam Huff R 22 C 491 457 55 102 17 2 20 54 26 167 5 7
Tim Federowicz R 32 C 267 243 25 55 12 0 7 25 19 72 1 0
Greg Bird L 27 1B 277 237 31 52 13 0 12 35 34 73 0 0
Nick Ciuffo L 25 C 290 269 27 61 14 1 6 28 18 80 1 1
Sherten Apostel R 21 3B 474 424 54 93 15 2 17 50 42 147 2 2
Leody Taveras B 21 CF 609 558 61 139 18 6 7 43 44 120 22 14
Nolan Fontana L 29 2B 306 260 33 52 12 1 6 25 38 86 4 2
Henry Ramos B 28 RF 363 337 40 87 17 2 10 40 21 74 4 3
Scott Heineman R 27 RF 439 397 52 98 19 2 12 42 31 112 10 8
Curtis Terry R 23 1B 511 466 59 110 25 2 19 60 30 137 0 2
Yadiel Rivera R 28 SS 367 344 37 72 10 2 8 34 17 110 10 4
Sam Travis R 26 1B 433 396 49 104 17 1 11 38 34 99 5 1
Adolis García R 27 RF 510 474 64 110 24 3 22 71 23 153 12 8
Blake Swihart B 28 C 235 212 28 43 6 1 6 23 21 70 2 1
Yonny Hernandez B 22 2B 520 449 53 109 13 3 1 28 54 89 27 19
Anderson Tejeda B 22 SS 400 367 42 80 14 3 10 39 28 129 11 7
Tony Sanchez R 32 C 251 229 24 52 10 0 5 21 15 64 0 0
Eli White R 26 SS 512 463 54 106 21 3 10 41 37 145 11 5
Rob Refsnyder R 29 RF 331 297 36 73 15 2 6 30 28 83 2 2
Jose Trevino R 27 C 343 326 34 71 15 0 6 29 13 58 2 1
Isiah Kiner-Falefa R 25 C 432 391 44 96 19 2 4 33 29 76 8 3
Ryan Dorow R 24 3B 493 441 49 91 15 2 10 38 40 158 8 3
Josh Altmann R 25 2B 414 369 42 74 17 1 10 35 33 107 8 4
Jeff Mathis R 37 C 215 199 14 38 7 0 2 12 15 77 1 0
Steele Walker L 23 CF 513 468 50 106 23 4 9 48 31 104 9 7
Charles Leblanc R 24 3B 519 479 54 112 18 3 8 41 36 130 3 3
Eliezer Álvarez L 25 CF 414 374 44 79 16 2 9 35 35 140 13 7
Diosbel Arias R 23 2B 520 473 50 112 20 3 5 36 39 126 4 5
Yanio Perez R 24 RF 447 414 38 96 14 1 7 31 25 114 5 6
Alex Kowalczyk R 26 C 314 290 29 62 11 0 7 25 17 109 2 1
Preston Beck L 29 RF 441 405 44 91 19 3 8 37 31 100 2 2
Julio Pablo Martinez L 24 CF 468 430 46 83 15 3 11 38 31 176 18 13
Brendon Davis R 22 LF 443 400 39 79 15 2 6 30 34 129 1 3

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Joey Gallo .223 .358 .575 135 .351 .288 7.2 -3 2.4 Dave Kingman
Nick Solak .275 .343 .443 101 .168 .329 5.7 -4 1.8 Cass Michaels
Robinson Chirinos .228 .338 .421 94 .193 .298 4.9 1 1.5 Andy Seminick
Danny Santana .267 .307 .482 99 .216 .330 5.6 -1 1.4 Brant Brown
Todd Frazier .247 .331 .437 96 .190 .280 5.1 0 1.3 Clete Boyer
Elvis Andrus .275 .321 .406 86 .131 .310 5.0 -1 1.2 Mark Grudzielanek
Shin-Soo Choo .251 .356 .414 98 .164 .317 5.5 0 1.2 George Watkins
Rougned Odor .236 .301 .454 91 .218 .284 4.7 -2 1.0 Ray Mack
Willie Calhoun .271 .330 .488 107 .217 .278 6.0 -6 0.9 Ed Kranepool
Matt M. Duffy .277 .345 .382 88 .104 .322 4.9 0 0.7 Mark Loretta
Andy Ibáñez .256 .312 .407 84 .151 .291 4.5 1 0.6 Brian Buscher
Ronald Guzmán .242 .314 .414 86 .172 .309 4.6 3 0.2 Eric Munson
Sam Huff .223 .273 .400 70 .177 .304 3.6 2 0.2 Sean Mulligan
Tim Federowicz .226 .283 .362 65 .136 .293 3.6 2 0.1 Keith McDonald
Greg Bird .219 .321 .426 91 .207 .263 4.7 0 0.1 Todd Betts
Nick Ciuffo .227 .273 .353 60 .126 .301 3.3 4 0.1 Tommy Duenas
Sherten Apostel .219 .295 .384 74 .165 .292 3.9 0 0.0 Corey Smith
Leody Taveras .249 .302 .341 66 .091 .306 3.6 8 0.0 Abraham Nunez
Nolan Fontana .200 .304 .323 62 .123 .274 3.3 2 -0.1 Keith Johns
Henry Ramos .258 .302 .409 81 .151 .304 4.4 1 -0.2 Andrew Locke
Scott Heineman .247 .311 .395 81 .149 .315 4.2 1 -0.2 Chris Aguila
Curtis Terry .236 .297 .421 82 .185 .294 4.3 2 -0.2 Adell Davenport
Yadiel Rivera .209 .249 .320 45 .110 .283 2.8 9 -0.2 Chris Petersen
Sam Travis .263 .323 .394 84 .131 .325 4.7 -2 -0.3 Francisco Melendez
Adolis García .232 .277 .435 79 .203 .294 4.1 2 -0.3 Kenny Jackson
Blake Swihart .203 .277 .325 55 .123 .272 3.0 0 -0.3 Paul Chiaffredo
Yonny Hernandez .243 .333 .292 64 .049 .301 3.2 3 -0.3 Albenis Machado
Anderson Tejeda .218 .278 .354 62 .136 .307 3.3 1 -0.3 Jose Lopez
Tony Sanchez .227 .284 .336 59 .109 .294 3.3 -2 -0.4 Chris Ashby
Eli White .229 .295 .352 66 .123 .312 3.7 -4 -0.4 Travis Dawkins
Rob Refsnyder .246 .314 .370 76 .125 .322 4.1 -1 -0.4 Jeff Wetherby
Jose Trevino .218 .246 .319 44 .101 .248 2.7 6 -0.4 Jose Lobaton
Isiah Kiner-Falefa .246 .309 .335 67 .090 .296 3.8 -7 -0.5 Rafael Pujols
Ryan Dorow .206 .283 .317 55 .111 .297 3.1 6 -0.5 Heath Honeycutt
Josh Altmann .201 .283 .333 59 .133 .254 3.2 1 -0.5 Vicente Garcia
Jeff Mathis .191 .247 .256 30 .065 .300 2.2 3 -0.7 Raul Chavez
Steele Walker .226 .281 .350 62 .124 .273 3.3 1 -0.7 Bob Zupcic
Charles Leblanc .234 .287 .334 60 .100 .305 3.3 1 -0.9 Willie Lozado
Eliezer Álvarez .211 .281 .337 59 .126 .311 3.2 -2 -0.9 Damon Mashore
Diosbel Arias .237 .298 .323 61 .087 .313 3.3 -2 -1.1 Chris Pittaro
Yanio Perez .232 .282 .321 55 .089 .304 3.0 5 -1.2 Layne Lambert
Alex Kowalczyk .214 .268 .324 52 .110 .316 3.0 -11 -1.6 Henry Mercedes
Preston Beck .225 .283 .346 61 .121 .279 3.4 -5 -1.8 Greg Creek
Julio Pablo Martinez .193 .251 .319 46 .126 .296 2.5 -1 -1.9 Nicholas Moresi
Brendon Davis .198 .266 .290 44 .093 .275 2.5 3 -2.0 Leroy Grossini

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Lance Lynn R 33 14 9 4.05 30 29 173.3 166 78 24 64 193 3.98
Corey Kluber R 34 11 7 3.98 24 24 144.7 136 64 20 38 145 3.84
Mike Minor L 32 12 9 4.48 28 28 172.7 167 86 28 55 161 4.48
Kolby Allard L 22 9 8 5.08 29 28 145.3 160 82 22 58 120 4.84
Kyle Gibson R 32 9 9 5.11 28 25 141.0 152 80 22 57 125 4.75
Tyler Phillips R 22 10 10 5.06 24 23 122.7 142 69 21 31 81 5.01
José Leclerc R 26 4 2 3.57 67 0 68.0 48 27 6 43 98 3.52
Jordan Lyles R 29 8 8 5.21 31 22 121.0 126 70 22 46 120 4.80
Brock Burke L 23 6 6 5.28 22 21 102.3 115 60 16 42 80 5.06
Adrian Sampson R 28 7 7 5.28 32 16 119.3 140 70 22 29 84 5.07
Yohander Méndez L 25 6 6 5.37 27 20 109.0 121 65 20 51 96 5.35
Joe Palumbo L 25 2 2 5.13 18 16 73.7 75 42 12 36 70 5.03
Brett Martin L 25 3 2 4.12 61 0 72.0 72 33 8 26 67 3.97
Jesse Chavez R 36 4 3 4.61 48 5 70.3 73 36 12 19 65 4.45
Ariel Jurado R 24 10 11 5.67 35 23 149.3 181 94 29 39 93 5.34
Rafael Montero R 29 3 2 3.91 52 0 50.7 49 22 8 15 57 3.99
Juan Nicasio R 33 3 2 4.15 51 0 52.0 52 24 7 18 53 4.05
Derek Law R 29 3 3 4.39 63 0 67.7 66 33 8 33 68 4.30
Joely Rodríguez L 28 4 3 4.28 56 0 54.7 51 26 7 22 56 4.17
Luke Farrell R 29 4 5 5.49 26 13 77.0 78 47 15 41 79 5.37
Demarcus Evans R 23 3 3 4.41 46 0 51.0 37 25 5 49 75 4.57
Matt Bush R 34 3 2 4.27 40 0 40.0 38 19 5 16 39 4.21
Luis Garcia R 33 2 2 4.67 58 1 54.0 54 28 6 27 50 4.38
Jonathan Hernández R 23 8 9 5.85 30 19 107.7 118 70 19 62 92 5.66
Arturo Reyes R 28 7 8 5.91 25 19 106.7 126 70 20 45 72 5.67
Jason Bahr R 25 7 8 5.95 23 23 101.3 112 67 19 58 86 5.81
Ian Gibaut R 26 3 2 4.67 39 0 44.3 42 23 6 24 48 4.60
Joe Kuzia R 26 3 3 4.75 37 0 47.3 50 25 6 19 37 4.66
Brian Flynn L 30 5 5 5.43 28 4 68.0 75 41 11 33 52 5.39
Edinson Vólquez R 36 3 3 5.81 14 12 48.0 54 31 8 27 36 5.60
Jimmy Herget R 26 4 3 4.94 54 0 62.0 60 34 9 37 66 4.87
Jeanmar Gómez R 32 3 2 4.85 41 0 42.7 47 23 5 16 33 4.42
Shane Carle R 28 3 3 5.10 41 1 54.7 58 31 7 26 41 4.94
Shawn Kelley R 36 3 3 4.95 49 0 43.7 45 24 10 12 44 5.03
Kyle Bird L 27 3 3 5.27 45 1 56.3 58 33 8 34 51 5.24
Taylor Hearn L 25 4 5 6.21 18 17 79.7 83 55 17 49 83 5.90
Josh Fields R 34 2 2 5.20 39 0 36.3 38 21 8 12 34 5.24
Ronald Herrera R 25 5 7 6.27 21 18 89.0 112 62 18 31 49 5.92
Wei-Chieh Huang R 26 3 3 5.86 32 5 55.3 58 36 11 36 58 5.78
Cody Allen R 31 3 3 5.32 51 0 47.3 45 28 9 27 54 5.14
Seth Maness R 31 4 6 6.32 20 16 94.0 124 66 24 15 45 6.15
Tim Dillard R 36 6 7 6.24 26 14 105.3 129 73 23 35 65 5.92
Nick Goody R 28 3 3 5.49 56 0 59.0 57 36 14 30 69 5.55
Jacob Lemoine R 26 2 3 5.53 44 0 55.3 60 34 7 33 41 5.29
Joe Barlow R 24 4 4 5.65 49 0 51.0 41 32 6 59 69 5.65
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 35 3 5 6.65 18 12 70.3 86 52 18 27 50 6.41
Reed Garrett R 27 2 2 5.82 49 0 55.7 63 36 9 33 45 5.61
Taylor Guerrieri R 27 3 4 6.35 38 7 72.3 81 51 15 39 57 6.12
Locke St. John L 27 4 5 6.27 45 0 51.7 55 36 12 31 53 6.06
James Jones L 31 1 2 6.34 40 0 49.7 54 35 9 35 42 6.08
Yoel Espinal R 27 3 4 7.07 36 1 49.7 52 39 10 49 47 7.05
Wes Benjamin L 26 5 8 7.09 24 23 113.0 143 89 30 49 80 6.70

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Lance Lynn 10.0 3.3 1.2 8.6% 25.9% .310 120 83 3.6 Dolf Luque
Corey Kluber 9.0 2.4 1.2 6.3% 24.1% .294 122 82 3.1 Derek Lowe
Mike Minor 8.4 2.9 1.5 7.5% 21.9% .287 109 92 3.0 Rick Honeycutt
Kolby Allard 7.4 3.6 1.4 8.9% 18.5% .312 96 104 1.6 Jeff Mutis
Kyle Gibson 8.0 3.6 1.4 9.1% 19.9% .311 95 105 1.5 Denny Galehouse
Tyler Phillips 5.9 2.3 1.5 5.8% 15.1% .304 96 104 1.4 Fred Newman
José Leclerc 13.0 5.7 0.8 14.6% 33.2% .292 136 73 1.2 Mitch Williams
Jordan Lyles 8.9 3.4 1.6 8.7% 22.6% .307 93 107 1.1 Julian Tavarez
Brock Burke 7.0 3.7 1.4 9.1% 17.3% .311 92 108 0.9 Dave Fleming
Adrian Sampson 6.3 2.2 1.7 5.5% 16.0% .308 92 108 0.9 Bill Fischer
Yohander Méndez 7.9 4.2 1.7 10.3% 19.4% .312 91 110 0.9 Rick Waits
Joe Palumbo 8.6 4.4 1.5 10.9% 21.1% .301 95 105 0.8 Nate Robertson
Brett Martin 8.4 3.3 1.0 8.3% 21.5% .308 118 85 0.7 Ed Olwine
Jesse Chavez 8.3 2.4 1.5 6.3% 21.7% .302 106 95 0.7 Lindy McDaniel
Ariel Jurado 5.6 2.4 1.7 5.9% 14.1% .307 86 116 0.7 Rick Wise
Rafael Montero 10.1 2.7 1.4 7.0% 26.5% .308 125 80 0.6 Chad Bradford
Juan Nicasio 9.2 3.1 1.2 8.0% 23.7% .313 117 85 0.6 Roger McDowell
Derek Law 9.0 4.4 1.1 11.0% 22.7% .309 111 90 0.5 Sean Green
Joely Rodríguez 9.2 3.6 1.2 9.3% 23.7% .297 114 88 0.5 Juan Agosto
Luke Farrell 9.2 4.8 1.8 11.8% 22.7% .300 89 113 0.4 Jaime Cocanower
Demarcus Evans 13.2 8.6 0.9 20.5% 31.4% .299 110 91 0.4 Lee Smith
Matt Bush 8.8 3.6 1.1 9.2% 22.5% .297 114 88 0.4 Greg Minton
Luis Garcia 8.3 4.5 1.0 11.2% 20.7% .308 104 96 0.3 Don Brennan
Jonathan Hernández 7.7 5.2 1.6 12.4% 18.4% .307 83 120 0.3 Tim Byron
Arturo Reyes 6.1 3.8 1.7 9.2% 14.8% .306 82 121 0.3 Bill Swift
Jason Bahr 7.6 5.2 1.7 12.3% 18.2% .306 82 122 0.3 Rick Berg
Ian Gibaut 9.7 4.9 1.2 12.1% 24.1% .305 104 96 0.2 Mike Schultz
Joe Kuzia 7.0 3.6 1.1 9.0% 17.6% .303 102 98 0.2 Jim York
Brian Flynn 6.9 4.4 1.5 10.6% 16.7% .303 90 112 0.2 Hal Woodeshick
Edinson Vólquez 6.8 5.1 1.5 12.2% 16.2% .307 84 119 0.2 Tommy Byrne
Jimmy Herget 9.6 5.4 1.3 13.1% 23.4% .305 99 101 0.1 Joe Hudson
Jeanmar Gómez 7.0 3.4 1.1 8.4% 17.4% .313 100 100 0.1 Mike Barlow
Shane Carle 6.8 4.3 1.2 10.5% 16.6% .300 95 105 0.1 Horacio Pina
Shawn Kelley 9.1 2.5 2.1 6.5% 23.7% .294 98 102 0.1 Mike Timlin
Kyle Bird 8.1 5.4 1.3 13.0% 19.5% .305 92 108 0.0 Jim Roland
Taylor Hearn 9.4 5.5 1.9 13.2% 22.4% .304 78 128 0.0 Justin Carter
Josh Fields 8.4 3.0 2.0 7.6% 21.7% .294 94 107 0.0 Rich Monteleone
Ronald Herrera 5.0 3.1 1.8 7.6% 12.0% .308 78 129 -0.1 Nate Cornejo
Wei-Chieh Huang 9.4 5.9 1.8 13.9% 22.4% .311 83 120 -0.1 Mike Lumley
Cody Allen 10.3 5.1 1.7 12.7% 25.5% .298 91 109 -0.1 Craig McMurtry
Seth Maness 4.3 1.4 2.3 3.6% 10.8% .304 77 130 -0.1 Brian Tollberg
Tim Dillard 5.6 3.0 2.0 7.4% 13.7% .305 78 128 -0.2 Mickey Weston
Nick Goody 10.5 4.6 2.1 11.5% 26.3% .293 89 113 -0.2 Marc Pisciotta
Jacob Lemoine 6.7 5.4 1.1 12.8% 15.9% .305 88 114 -0.2 Sam Nahem
Joe Barlow 12.2 10.4 1.1 23.3% 27.3% .302 86 116 -0.3 Clay Bryant
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 6.4 3.5 2.3 8.4% 15.5% .304 73 137 -0.4 Shawn Boskie
Reed Garrett 7.3 5.3 1.5 12.6% 17.2% .314 84 120 -0.4 Barry Hertzler
Taylor Guerrieri 7.1 4.9 1.9 11.6% 16.9% .299 77 130 -0.4 Bill Swaggerty
Locke St. John 9.2 5.4 2.1 12.9% 22.1% .303 78 129 -0.6 Tom Doyle
James Jones 7.6 6.3 1.6 14.8% 17.8% .304 77 130 -0.6 Jerry Johnson
Yoel Espinal 8.5 8.9 1.8 19.6% 18.8% .298 69 145 -0.9 Ken Wright
Wes Benjamin 6.4 3.9 2.4 9.3% 15.1% .311 69 146 -1.0 Jason Cromer

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Texas Rangers by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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bernardgilkeyhasaposse
Member
Member
bernardgilkeyhasaposse

Wait, Solak can play CF? I’m big on the bat, but if anything he seems a “four corners plus some 2B” glove. And you just hope he will be passable, not “Jose Martinez” on the field.

sadtrombone
Member
sadtrombone

My sense was always that he was pretty good at 2B. I kind of wish they’d find a way to exchange Odor for another change-of-scenery candidate and install Solak as the permanent 2B.

bernardgilkeyhasaposse
Member
Member
bernardgilkeyhasaposse

I don’t think he’s “Willie Calhoun brutal” at 2B, but probably at least a tick below average.

Yes, it would make the most sense to bite the bullet on Odor and play Solak at 2B. Given their current roster, perhaps Solak starts at 3B v. RHP, and at 1B v. LHP.

baseballtimeintx
Member

Solak is an excellent athlete, so the glove will probably play almost as well in CF as anywhere else. He just isn’t smooth in the field, and his arm is barely average,