2020 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

If you planned a Bond villain-esque scheme to abduct the sons of famous baseball players and put them to work in your baseball mines, it would make for a pretty good plot, and a hell of a lineup. Toronto’s storyline is still incomplete, however, as the next phase of the plan involved collecting a bunch of castoffs and tossing them into the batting order.

Perhaps this is a touch on the mean side. Whatever else you can say about the Jays, it’s unlikely they have a floor anywhere near as low as some of the other teams — like the Marlins or Royals — likely to land in the 70s for wins. The outfield has a lot of guys to juggle, as players like Dalton Pompey and Anthony Alford never developed into the types that carve out permanent roles. ZiPS remains skeptical of Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offense, and while the computer has him ticking up near an OPS+ of 100, that isn’t all that exciting when you’re talking about a corner outfielder instead of a middle infielder. The Jays don’t really have a center fielder in this group — at least among those likely to start — which raises some concerns about what their defense will look like.

But when we get to Toronto’s fortunate sons, things look a lot better. ZiPS isn’t terribly concerned that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t catapult to instant stardom like some other recent phenoms; it’s easy to forget that Vladito is playing in the majors when most prospects are getting used to High- or Double-A pitching. Bo Bichette’s done enough now that his rest-of-career win projection hasactually passed Guerrero’s by the thinnest of hairs. Vlad could steal that back, but the fact that Bichette has shown improvement while the former still has to take his step forward has a real effect on the probabilities. Cavan Biggio is a clear step back of these two, but ZiPS is betting on him being average for a long time, light years ahead of where it had him last year.

Pitchers

Hyun-Jin Ryu was the team’s big offseason addition, and ZiPS is confident he’s a reasonable No. 1 starter for the Jays, though it’s not as confident that he’ll again threaten to lead the league in ERA. Tanner Roark is a plug-and-play average pitcher, and ZiPS gives a strong projection to Shun Yamaguchi. Toronto will happily take an ERA+ of 100 from Matt Shoemaker, but his 13 game projection is a reflection of how risky it is to count on his health. With one big exception, who I’ll talk about later, none of the likely No. 5 starter candidates project to have much upside, but I’ve seen far worse groups contending for a final rotation spot.

When it comes to the bullpen, the projections are brilliantly lackluster. Ken Giles looked a lot like the pitcher he was with the Phillies last year. With only the Rays left to go in the projections, Giles’ projected ERA+ ranks ninth among relievers and eighth once you eliminate Felipe Vázquez. The problem isn’t Giles, but the rest of the bullpen, with all but one pitcher projected to be worse than league average.

That exception is a blast from the past, former Cubs prospect Rafael Dolis. He went to the NPB a few years back and his signing is one of the more interesting low-profile additions of this offseason. Dolis still throws hard, but his command is much better than it was years ago and he’s learned a hard splitter that induces a ton of groundballs. He only allowed six homers in four years in Japan, and ZiPS is confident he’ll succeed in his second major league chance.

Prospects

ZiPS has a very aggressive projection for big Alejandro Kirk, though his status at the top of the catcher heap is more a reflection on how bearish the computer is about Reese McGuire and Danny Jansen. Kirk’s a big dude, in definite large adult son territory. What makes Kirk interesting is his combination of power and plate discipline, and without being a Peter O’Brien-esque disaster defensively. I’d like to see him stick behind the plate as long as possible as he’s less interesting as a first base prospect, though he could still carve out a career like Daniel Vogelbach’s.

But one player ZiPS is really excited about is Nate Pearson, recently ranked eighth by Eric Longenhagen on the 2020 Top 100. Recovered from his broken forearm in 2018, Pearson and his century fastball fared very well in Double-A despite a real lack of professional experience. He made the Futures Game in July and pitched in Triple-A in August, and I’d love to see him in the mix for the fifth spot in March. Pearson still doesn’t have a lot of innings on his arm, so they’ll probably stretch him out in Triple-A, which isn’t quite as much fun. One can make the argument that it’s for the best because if the projections for the bullpen are accurate, as the Jays may not have the depth there to use Pearson in a Julio Urías swingman role in 2020.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Also, I’ve added Shun Yamaguchi, who is not yet in our system, into the depth chart.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Bo Bichette R 22 SS 536 489 73 135 29 5 19 79 42 90 28 11
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R 21 3B 571 513 70 146 30 2 25 93 49 89 2 2
Cavan Biggio L 25 2B 574 487 74 108 20 3 19 65 78 163 14 4
Travis Shaw L 30 3B 498 430 62 99 19 0 24 68 61 126 4 1
Randal Grichuk R 28 CF 572 530 73 127 32 4 30 84 34 158 3 2
Alejandro Kirk R 21 C 376 333 43 80 20 1 9 44 38 55 2 0
Derek Fisher L 26 LF 450 395 60 90 17 3 20 54 49 144 12 4
Danny Jansen R 25 C 408 362 46 84 18 1 11 47 35 76 2 1
Teoscar Hernández R 27 DH 543 490 70 116 25 3 27 75 47 170 10 6
Breyvic Valera B 28 2B 483 435 54 113 19 3 9 43 39 55 8 7
Reese McGuire L 25 C 379 341 40 81 16 2 9 36 28 74 3 2
Joe Panik L 29 2B 497 443 55 115 22 3 8 46 43 47 4 2
Patrick Kivlehan R 30 3B 459 418 54 95 19 3 21 63 31 135 2 3
Andy Burns R 29 3B 473 434 51 105 22 1 13 48 33 106 6 5
Rowdy Tellez L 25 1B 521 471 62 115 26 0 23 72 39 132 2 2
Billy McKinney L 25 RF 469 422 55 97 22 5 16 51 38 119 1 3
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R 26 LF 479 446 60 115 24 1 20 67 22 104 6 5
Jonathan Davis R 28 CF 492 433 54 90 18 3 11 42 39 133 15 5
Riley Adams R 24 C 397 355 39 74 15 1 9 34 32 133 3 1
Jordan Patterson L 28 1B 452 408 53 89 19 2 17 50 27 153 3 2
Santiago Espinal R 25 2B 536 497 53 119 20 2 7 42 31 92 9 9
Brandon Drury R 27 3B 451 416 44 96 23 1 13 46 30 112 1 1
Devon Travis R 29 2B 322 306 36 78 17 1 8 37 13 58 4 2
Rubén Tejada R 30 3B 344 313 36 73 16 1 4 27 21 62 2 2
Josh Palacios L 24 CF 439 396 44 85 16 2 8 37 36 124 11 7
Anthony Alford R 25 CF 398 359 41 74 16 1 8 33 30 133 18 7
Caleb Joseph R 34 C 260 244 26 54 11 1 5 21 11 69 0 0
Ben Revere L 32 RF 279 263 33 66 10 3 3 20 13 25 10 3
Patrick Cantwell R 30 C 131 116 11 22 3 0 1 7 9 36 3 1
Dalton Pompey B 27 LF 193 172 20 36 6 0 3 14 17 57 6 3
Ryan Noda L 24 1B 458 388 51 71 17 1 13 47 60 178 8 3
Roemon Fields L 29 CF 384 353 35 77 9 3 2 22 24 80 19 10
Forrest Wall L 24 CF 522 474 56 102 20 3 11 43 42 155 14 10
Alberto Mineo L 25 C 335 305 29 58 10 1 5 24 24 111 1 1
Christopher Bec R 24 C 209 185 18 35 7 1 3 15 20 58 11 2
Samad Taylor R 21 2B 470 418 46 77 20 3 10 41 41 156 23 15
Chavez Young B 22 CF 498 458 48 95 18 3 8 38 33 139 22 15
Cullen Large B 24 3B 415 376 37 80 17 3 5 29 28 130 4 2
Brock Lundquist L 24 LF 429 388 41 78 16 2 9 40 31 135 5 4
Logan Warmoth R 24 2B 391 354 32 65 13 2 2 22 26 133 9 2
Nash Knight B 27 3B 411 370 37 75 13 1 5 29 35 110 2 4
Kevin Vicuna R 22 SS 472 442 43 95 16 4 2 28 21 103 14 11
Kacy Clemens L 25 1B 440 397 39 79 12 1 9 34 38 148 3 0
Gabriel Guerrero R 26 RF 483 460 47 106 19 3 13 49 18 133 4 4

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Bo Bichette .276 .335 .472 115 .196 .305 6.0 1 3.4 Adrian Beltre
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .285 .349 .497 125 .212 .303 6.5 -5 3.1 Bobby Doerr
Cavan Biggio .222 .332 .392 95 .170 .292 4.6 5 2.4 Mark Bellhorn
Travis Shaw .230 .329 .442 106 .212 .268 5.2 2 2.3 Steve Buechele
Randal Grichuk .240 .292 .485 104 .245 .284 5.0 -7 1.5 Kevin Reimer
Alejandro Kirk .240 .322 .387 91 .147 .264 4.5 0 1.2 Jeff Reed
Derek Fisher .228 .316 .438 101 .210 .303 4.9 2 1.2 Duane Walker
Danny Jansen .232 .312 .378 86 .146 .265 4.2 1 1.2 Scott Hatteberg
Teoscar Hernández .237 .306 .465 104 .229 .304 5.0 0 1.1 Jeff Conine
Breyvic Valera .260 .322 .379 89 .120 .280 4.3 2 1.0 Alex Cora
Reese McGuire .238 .298 .375 81 .138 .279 3.9 4 1.0 Mark Parent
Joe Panik .260 .327 .377 90 .117 .276 4.5 -1 1.0 Alex Cora
Patrick Kivlehan .227 .290 .438 93 .211 .282 4.3 -1 0.9 Jim Chamblee
Andy Burns .242 .299 .387 84 .145 .292 4.0 3 0.8 Patrick Sellers
Rowdy Tellez .244 .307 .446 100 .202 .291 4.8 1 0.8 Adam LaRoche
Billy McKinney .230 .297 .419 91 .190 .282 4.2 5 0.7 Nick Evans
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .258 .299 .451 98 .193 .295 4.8 0 0.7 Jose Guillen
Jonathan Davis .208 .292 .339 70 .132 .273 3.5 6 0.6 Tyrone Boykin
Riley Adams .208 .287 .332 67 .124 .305 3.3 4 0.6 Ray Corbett
Jordan Patterson .218 .286 .400 82 .181 .303 3.9 6 0.3 Yurendell de Caster
Santiago Espinal .239 .287 .330 67 .091 .281 3.2 8 0.2 Billy Ripken
Brandon Drury .231 .286 .385 79 .154 .285 3.8 -1 0.2 Lou Lucca
Devon Travis .255 .289 .395 82 .141 .292 4.1 -3 0.1 Fred Manrique
Rubén Tejada .233 .292 .329 68 .096 .279 3.3 3 0.0 Mike Tyson
Josh Palacios .215 .285 .326 65 .111 .292 3.1 3 -0.2 Ntema Ndungidi
Anthony Alford .206 .277 .323 62 .117 .303 3.2 1 -0.4 Damon Mashore
Caleb Joseph .221 .263 .336 54 .115 .288 3.1 0 -0.2 Frank Charles
Ben Revere .251 .287 .346 70 .095 .268 3.7 0 -0.4 Mike Felder
Patrick Cantwell .190 .264 .241 39 .052 .266 2.2 0 -0.4 Chris Tremie
Dalton Pompey .209 .281 .297 57 .087 .295 2.8 1 -0.5 Glenn Reeves
Ryan Noda .183 .300 .332 71 .149 .294 3.3 2 -0.5 Glenn Davis
Roemon Fields .218 .270 .278 49 .059 .277 2.6 5 -0.7 Billy Hall
Forrest Wall .215 .284 .340 68 .124 .295 3.2 -3 -0.7 Mike Daniel
Alberto Mineo .190 .254 .279 44 .089 .280 2.3 1 -0.8 Henry Mercedes
Christopher Bec .189 .269 .286 51 .097 .258 2.9 -6 -0.8 Jon Aceves
Samad Taylor .184 .261 .318 56 .134 .266 2.6 3 -0.8 Trace Coquillette
Chavez Young .207 .264 .312 55 .105 .280 2.6 4 -0.9 Justin Justice
Cullen Large .213 .277 .314 60 .101 .311 3.0 -2 -1.0 Pete Dempsey
Brock Lundquist .201 .270 .322 60 .121 .283 2.9 1 -1.3 James Hall
Logan Warmoth .184 .249 .249 36 .065 .288 2.2 3 -1.4 Steve Phillips
Nash Knight .203 .280 .284 54 .081 .275 2.5 -3 -1.4 Keith Johns
Kevin Vicuna .215 .260 .283 47 .068 .276 2.3 -1 -1.6 Dario Nunez
Kacy Clemens .199 .270 .302 55 .103 .292 2.8 0 -1.6 Dodd Johnson
Gabriel Guerrero .230 .259 .370 67 .139 .296 3.3 -5 -1.7 Victor Mata

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Hyun-Jin Ryu L 33 9 7 3.77 25 24 143.3 142 60 23 26 135 4.01
Tanner Roark R 33 10 9 4.43 28 27 152.3 152 75 25 48 139 4.61
Shun Yamaguchi R 32 8 9 4.69 25 23 144.0 138 75 25 62 152 4.78
Nate Pearson R 23 5 4 4.07 26 26 95.0 90 43 14 31 102 4.09
Chase Anderson R 32 6 7 4.73 29 26 131.3 130 69 27 47 115 5.31
Ken Giles R 29 3 2 3.13 57 0 54.7 45 19 7 16 75 3.03
Matt Shoemaker R 33 5 5 4.46 13 13 70.7 70 35 12 22 68 4.52
Jacob Waguespack R 26 8 9 4.92 29 22 119.0 123 65 18 54 100 5.00
Trent Thornton R 26 7 8 5.05 29 26 139.0 149 78 26 44 126 4.88
A.J. Cole R 28 6 6 4.65 33 13 93.0 93 48 16 35 94 4.65
Patrick Murphy R 25 5 7 5.11 21 21 100.3 105 57 14 45 79 4.94
Sean Reid-Foley R 24 7 9 5.23 30 27 130.7 127 76 22 82 135 5.32
Ryan Borucki L 26 7 8 5.23 23 23 118.7 129 69 21 45 92 5.22
Anthony Kay L 25 8 10 5.27 27 26 128.0 133 75 21 66 116 5.21
Clay Buchholz R 35 4 5 5.03 17 15 78.7 84 44 14 23 58 4.97
Rafael Dolis R 32 5 3 3.81 54 0 49.7 45 21 5 20 49 3.90
Wilmer Font R 30 5 5 4.94 37 16 82.0 83 45 17 26 87 4.81
Turner Larkins R 24 5 6 5.20 24 14 88.3 101 51 13 35 58 5.14
Joey Murray R 23 7 10 5.40 28 25 123.3 129 74 24 60 109 5.60
Brian Moran L 31 3 3 4.34 48 0 58.0 52 28 9 26 69 4.37
Clayton Richard L 36 5 7 5.45 20 18 102.3 117 62 17 38 68 5.27
Tim Mayza L 28 3 3 4.37 62 0 55.7 51 27 7 29 61 4.29
Sam Gaviglio R 30 3 3 4.52 56 0 81.7 82 41 13 22 71 4.47
Anthony Bass R 32 3 3 4.47 54 0 54.3 54 27 8 17 46 4.45
John Axford R 37 2 2 4.29 35 0 35.7 34 17 4 17 35 4.27
Justin Miller R 33 2 2 4.40 41 0 43.0 41 21 8 12 47 4.39
Curtis Taylor R 24 4 4 4.83 30 3 50.3 50 27 8 23 48 4.89
Kirby Snead L 25 5 5 4.50 50 0 60.0 58 30 6 30 54 4.33
Buddy Boshers L 32 2 2 4.47 51 0 50.3 49 25 8 21 52 4.55
Graham Spraker R 25 5 6 5.51 24 16 96.3 112 59 16 35 58 5.41
Jake Fishman L 25 1 1 4.57 43 0 61.0 63 31 10 18 55 4.54
Brad Wilson R 23 3 3 4.56 40 0 51.3 51 26 8 21 48 4.74
Yennsy Diaz R 23 8 11 5.61 26 24 130.0 144 81 21 65 91 5.54
Thomas Hatch R 25 7 10 5.62 26 26 121.7 134 76 23 57 103 5.52
Julian Merryweather R 28 5 7 5.62 18 18 91.3 104 57 20 31 71 5.65
Danny Barnes R 30 3 3 4.62 46 0 48.7 45 25 8 22 51 4.64
Jake Petricka R 32 2 2 4.67 46 0 52.0 55 27 8 19 45 4.72
Justin Dillon R 26 5 8 5.64 24 18 103.7 121 65 20 37 67 5.64
Matt Dermody L 29 2 2 4.78 30 0 37.7 41 20 7 8 30 4.80
Nick Kingham R 28 5 7 5.66 26 15 90.7 103 57 20 31 75 5.55
Jordan Romano R 27 5 6 5.62 31 15 91.3 94 57 18 43 87 5.45
Ty Tice R 23 4 5 4.87 48 0 57.3 56 31 7 33 54 4.77
Shawn Morimando L 27 5 7 5.77 19 18 92.0 104 59 19 41 74 5.76
Elvis Luciano R 20 2 2 5.56 22 4 45.3 48 28 7 28 35 5.76
Phillippe Aumont R 31 2 2 5.68 18 2 31.7 32 20 5 22 30 5.61
Mark Leiter Jr. R 29 2 2 5.16 38 0 45.3 46 26 9 20 45 5.30
Andrew Sopko R 25 4 7 5.93 22 21 95.7 112 63 20 38 69 5.84
Travis Bergen L 26 1 2 5.40 39 0 36.7 36 22 6 20 36 5.14
T.J. Zeuch R 24 5 8 5.89 22 20 113.0 132 74 22 45 68 5.83
Zach Jackson R 25 4 5 5.15 48 0 64.7 65 37 10 37 62 5.13
Ryan Dull R 30 3 3 5.22 49 0 58.7 60 34 13 19 61 5.06
Hector Perez R 24 5 7 5.98 26 22 108.3 116 72 18 79 95 5.94
Thomas Pannone L 26 5 7 5.88 35 15 101.0 108 66 24 42 96 5.79
Corey Copping R 26 3 4 5.70 40 0 53.7 55 34 9 37 52 5.66
Hobie Harris R 27 2 4 5.96 30 0 45.3 47 30 8 33 44 5.92
Jackson McClelland R 25 1 2 5.82 44 0 51.0 52 33 9 35 47 5.87
Zach Logue L 24 5 8 6.24 22 20 106.7 127 74 25 42 72 6.23
Jon Harris R 26 6 9 6.26 22 22 110.7 132 77 27 38 75 6.19
Bryan Baker R 25 4 6 6.08 49 0 50.3 49 34 10 42 59 6.10
Willy Ortiz R 24 3 5 6.83 17 7 56.7 68 43 14 34 41 6.96
Ryan Feierabend L 34 7 11 6.25 25 18 134.0 161 93 37 43 103 6.35
Mike Ellenbest R 25 3 6 7.44 25 11 71.3 90 59 18 47 44 7.41
Tayler Saucedo L 27 4 8 7.21 31 14 93.7 116 75 25 46 62 6.99

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Hyun-Jin Ryu 8.5 1.6 1.4 4.4% 22.8% .295 118 85 2.9 Tommy John
Tanner Roark 8.2 2.8 1.5 7.3% 21.2% .293 100 100 2.0 Bob Bruce
Shun Yamaguchi 9.5 3.9 1.6 9.8% 24.1% .295 95 105 1.6 Pat Rapp
Nate Pearson 9.7 2.9 1.3 7.7% 25.2% .300 109 92 1.6 Bill Singer
Chase Anderson 7.9 3.2 1.9 8.3% 20.2% .276 94 106 1.3 Atley Donald
Ken Giles 12.3 2.6 1.2 7.2% 33.6% .306 142 70 1.1 Rollie Fingers
Matt Shoemaker 8.7 2.8 1.5 7.3% 22.5% .294 100 100 0.9 Armando Reynoso
Jacob Waguespack 7.6 4.1 1.4 10.2% 18.8% .297 91 110 0.9 Steve Arlin
Trent Thornton 8.2 2.8 1.7 7.3% 20.8% .304 88 113 0.9 Michael Macdonald
A.J. Cole 9.1 3.4 1.5 8.6% 23.2% .301 96 104 0.8 Kip Gross
Patrick Murphy 7.1 4.0 1.3 10.0% 17.6% .298 87 115 0.6 Rick Berg
Sean Reid-Foley 9.3 5.6 1.5 13.7% 22.6% .297 85 118 0.6 Charlie Haeger
Ryan Borucki 7.0 3.4 1.6 8.5% 17.5% .298 85 118 0.6 Jeff Mutis
Anthony Kay 8.2 4.6 1.5 11.4% 20.0% .302 84 118 0.6 Greg Kubes
Clay Buchholz 6.6 2.6 1.6 6.8% 17.1% .289 88 113 0.5 Spud Chandler
Rafael Dolis 8.9 3.6 0.9 9.3% 22.9% .292 117 85 0.5 Jim Hughes
Wilmer Font 9.5 2.9 1.9 7.4% 24.6% .300 90 111 0.5 Doug Brocail
Turner Larkins 5.9 3.6 1.3 8.8% 14.5% .306 86 117 0.4 Dan Smith
Joey Murray 8.0 4.4 1.8 10.8% 19.5% .294 82 121 0.4 Mike Torrez
Brian Moran 10.7 4.0 1.4 10.3% 27.4% .299 102 98 0.3 Tippy Martinez
Clayton Richard 6.0 3.3 1.5 8.3% 14.8% .302 82 123 0.2 Wilbur Wood
Tim Mayza 9.9 4.7 1.1 11.8% 24.9% .301 102 98 0.2 Tippy Martinez
Sam Gaviglio 7.8 2.4 1.4 6.3% 20.5% .291 99 102 0.2 Bob Miller
Anthony Bass 7.6 2.8 1.3 7.3% 19.8% .289 100 100 0.2 Kent Tekulve
John Axford 8.8 4.3 1.0 10.8% 22.2% .300 104 96 0.2 Dave Giusti
Justin Miller 9.8 2.5 1.7 6.6% 26.0% .295 101 99 0.2 Terry Leach
Curtis Taylor 8.6 4.1 1.4 10.3% 21.5% .298 92 108 0.2 Ray Herbert
Kirby Snead 8.1 4.5 0.9 11.2% 20.2% .299 99 101 0.2 Mike Cosgrove
Buddy Boshers 9.3 3.8 1.4 9.5% 23.6% .299 100 100 0.1 Arnold Earley
Graham Spraker 5.4 3.3 1.5 8.1% 13.4% .301 81 124 0.1 Joe Coleman
Jake Fishman 8.1 2.7 1.5 6.8% 20.9% .299 97 103 0.1 Dana Allison
Brad Wilson 8.4 3.7 1.4 9.3% 21.3% .297 98 102 0.1 Bob Miller
Yennsy Diaz 6.3 4.5 1.5 10.9% 15.3% .299 79 126 0.1 Jake Dittler
Thomas Hatch 7.6 4.2 1.7 10.3% 18.6% .305 79 126 0.1 Matt Achilles
Julian Merryweather 7.0 3.1 2.0 7.6% 17.4% .300 79 126 0.1 Pat Ahearne
Danny Barnes 9.4 4.1 1.5 10.4% 24.2% .287 96 104 0.1 Todd Williams
Jake Petricka 7.8 3.3 1.4 8.3% 19.7% .305 95 105 0.0 Doug Sisk
Justin Dillon 5.8 3.2 1.7 7.9% 14.3% .300 79 127 0.0 Rick Aguilera
Matt Dermody 7.2 1.9 1.7 5.0% 18.6% .298 93 107 0.0 Will McEnaney
Nick Kingham 7.4 3.1 2.0 7.7% 18.6% .304 79 127 -0.1 Don August
Jordan Romano 8.6 4.2 1.8 10.5% 21.2% .296 79 126 -0.1 Bobby Munoz
Ty Tice 8.5 5.2 1.1 12.7% 20.8% .301 91 109 -0.1 Sam Nahem
Shawn Morimando 7.2 4.0 1.9 9.8% 17.7% .304 77 130 -0.1 John Courtright
Elvis Luciano 6.9 5.6 1.4 13.1% 16.4% .295 80 125 -0.1 Cuddles Marshall
Phillippe Aumont 8.5 6.3 1.4 14.8% 20.1% .300 78 128 -0.2 Gary Wagner
Mark Leiter Jr. 8.9 4.0 1.8 9.9% 22.3% .296 86 116 -0.2 Sean Green
Andrew Sopko 6.5 3.6 1.9 8.7% 15.8% .304 75 133 -0.3 Preston Larrison
Travis Bergen 8.8 4.9 1.5 12.1% 21.8% .297 82 121 -0.3 Brian Adams
T.J. Zeuch 5.4 3.6 1.8 8.8% 13.3% .296 76 132 -0.3 Jake Joseph
Zach Jackson 8.6 5.1 1.4 12.5% 21.0% .301 86 116 -0.3 Dave Smith
Ryan Dull 9.4 2.9 2.0 7.5% 24.1% .297 85 117 -0.3 Kenny Greer
Hector Perez 7.9 6.6 1.5 15.3% 18.3% .306 74 134 -0.4 Jason Phillips
Thomas Pannone 8.6 3.7 2.1 9.3% 21.2% .296 76 132 -0.4 Wade Parrish
Corey Copping 8.7 6.2 1.5 14.7% 20.6% .305 78 128 -0.6 Ken Wright
Hobie Harris 8.7 6.6 1.6 15.3% 20.4% .305 75 134 -0.6 Ken Wright
Jackson McClelland 8.3 6.2 1.6 14.6% 19.7% .297 76 131 -0.6 Lloyd Allen
Zach Logue 6.1 3.5 2.1 8.6% 14.8% .298 71 140 -0.7 Jason Cromer
Jon Harris 6.1 3.1 2.2 7.6% 15.0% .297 71 141 -0.7 Cameron Reimers
Bryan Baker 10.5 7.5 1.8 17.4% 24.4% .305 73 137 -0.8 Jeff Smith
Willy Ortiz 6.5 5.4 2.2 12.5% 15.1% .302 65 153 -0.8 Jason Szuminski
Ryan Feierabend 6.9 2.9 2.5 7.1% 17.1% .300 71 140 -0.9 Terry Mulholland
Mike Ellenbest 5.6 5.9 2.3 13.4% 12.6% .305 60 167 -1.5 Dallas Trahern
Tayler Saucedo 6.0 4.4 2.4 10.4% 14.0% .300 62 162 -1.8 Don Vesling

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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J. Paquin
Member
J. Paquin

Amazing comp for Bichette…not so much for Vlad.

yaro
Member
yaro

Bobby Doerr had 50+ career war, that’s nothing to blow off.

Anon
Member
Anon

You have to remember that Beltre’s career got off to an OK-but-not-HOF start. Other than his outlier 2004, he didn’t put up a wOBA over 116 until age 31 when he suddenly became a very good hitter which he incredibly managed to maintain throughout his 30’s. 6 of his 7 best offensive seasons and 8 of his top 10 came after age 30 (his career almost looks like Cal Ripken’s in reverse). He didn’t look at all like a HOFer until his mid-30’s

I’d heard the name Bobby Doerr but I don’t think I’d ever looked at his bRef or FG page. He was a darn good player. Probably benefited from playing through the WWII years but he had a few good years even after everyone came back.