2020 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Washington Nationals.

Batters

At this point, Juan Soto getting an MVP-region projection should probably have been expected. Soto didn’t quite meet his 2019 projection — yes, the OPS was close, but offense went up league-wide — but he was still a superstar, and with the departures of Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon in consecutive winters, he’s now undoubtedly the centerpiece of the offense. Mike Trout’s finally gotten old enough that Soto, along with Ronald Acuña Jr., has passed him in rest-of-career projections. Soto’s so terrific that he even managed to play in the majors five days before his debut. Okay, okay, it was a suspended game, but I like to imagine he caused a Star Trek-esque time paradox.

Losing Rendon hurts and while the Nats have made a real effort to try to bridge at least some of the gap with secondary talent, it’s just too tall an order to fully replace that level of production. Replacing Harper was a breeze, but only because the team had developed Soto, which they can’t do every year. (If they did, I’d call for team president Mike Rizzo to be placed on trial for witchcraft.)

Trea Turner, Victor Robles, and Adam Eaton complete the offensive core. The rest of the lineup is more of the cobbled-together variety, with Starlin Castro, Eric Thames, and Asdrúbal Cabrera brought in to be average-adjacent, the last until Carter Kieboom takes over at third base. To platoon with Thames, the team re-signed Ryan Zimmerman, though his position could best be described as beloved mascot, given that Howie Kendrick would be a better platoon partner and the Nats are going to thin when it comes to infielders who can reliably backup at shortstop. I said reliably, Cabrera-stans, if there is such a thing.

Pitchers

ZiPS still gives a very slight edge to Max Scherzer over Stephen Strasburg, but whoever you prefer, the Nats have two legitimate ace pitchers, with another in Patrick Corbin who’s not far behind. Having that top three will do a lot to paper over depth issues in the rotation, a malady from which the Nats suffer. ZiPS is spooked by the 20% strikeout drop from Aníbal Sánchez given his age and the uptake in walks, and like Steamer, sees him as barely above replacement level. The projections are still on the suspicious side when it comes to Joe Ross, who did show increased velocity in a respectable late-season stint in the rotation, but has missed a lot of time due to injury. ZiPS doesn’t like Austin Voth any better.

There are exactly three relievers who ZiPS likes: Sean Doolittle, Will Harris, and Wander Suero. Acquired from the Twins in a minor trade last month, Ryne Harper gets a roughly league-average projection. ZiPS is quite worried about Daniel Hudson, seeing a lot of danger signs balanced against his improved velocity; his swinging strike percentage dropped, the contact against him improved, and ZiPS thinks he was fairly lucky in the homers allowed. Like the rotation, it feels like the bullpen could have used another arm, and with $10 million still remaining before the team hits the first luxury tax threshold, the Nats could still theoretically make a couple of low-key signings.

Prospects

Thankfully, Carter Kieboom is still technically a prospect, or else there wouldn’t be that much projectionally interesting about the top-thin Nats farm system. ZiPS doesn’t see Kieboom becoming a major superstar on order of Francisco Lindor. Instead, it sees him as “merely” hitting .260/.350/.450 a year for a long time and being perfectly capable of playing shortstop. As his position, Kieboom ranks fifth in rest-of-career WAR, when looking at the 26 teams for which I have released ZiPS so far, though of those remaining, I believe only Wander Franco will push him down in that pecking order. On merit, he should take over from Cabrera fairly quickly, ideally at the start of the season.

ZiPS likes Luis García enough to project him to stay at shortstop and eventually hit .260/.320/.420 a year, peaking as a 15-18 home run hitter, though he also with the misfortune of being the third-best shortstop on the Nationals. He’s still very young, so there’s a lot more give, both in terms of upside and downside, than there is with players who have already reached the high minors. The only other Nationals prospect with a 40 FV in the high minors, Wil Crowe, doesn’t interest ZiPS at all; he’s going to be 26 before the end of the 2020 season and he’s walked too many guys for a pitcher with a K/9 under seven.

There’s no more optimism from ZiPS when we talk fringe prospects. Steven Fuentes and Mario Sanchez rank highly in projected WAR, but that’s mainly an expression of ZiPS really only liking six or seven pitchers in the entire organization. Both could be useful fifth starter/swingman types, but ZiPS sees their ceilings as fairly low.

As for the rest, there’s probably a shot that Raudy Read is Stephen Vogt for a few years. Yadiel Hernandez is compelling in a limited sort of way. Hernandez, who signed after defecting from Cuba in 2016, didn’t do much to mash his way onto prospect lists, and as he was already nearing 30 when he signed, he didn’t have a lot of time. Only in 2019, with the offensive explosion in Triple-A, did he finally really hit enough to turn heads, posting a .323/.406/.604 line for Fresno. Again, that’s the Pacific Coast League in a rabbit ball year, so you have to take those numbers with a large grain of salt. But it’s enough to make him interesting and when we’re talking fringe prospects and role players, I’m a huge fan of interesting.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Juan Soto L 21 LF 678 559 115 165 33 5 36 126 113 127 11 2
Trea Turner R 27 SS 635 579 98 163 31 8 20 70 50 126 44 7
Victor Robles R 23 CF 604 536 81 142 31 5 16 69 38 124 29 10
Adam Eaton L 31 RF 573 501 82 143 25 6 11 49 52 95 13 3
Starlin Castro R 30 2B 638 600 73 174 33 3 22 90 30 105 3 2
Carter Kieboom R 22 SS 564 498 71 126 25 3 16 64 56 128 5 2
Brian Dozier R 33 2B 537 471 70 116 24 2 23 72 58 114 7 4
Asdrúbal Cabrera B 34 3B 506 454 63 124 28 1 19 82 44 97 3 0
Eric Thames L 33 1B 425 368 62 89 19 3 24 65 49 131 4 2
Yan Gomes R 32 C 361 325 39 76 17 0 13 49 28 89 1 0
Jacob Wilson R 29 3B 453 400 55 97 22 1 16 59 41 96 2 1
Yadiel Hernandez L 32 LF 466 418 59 111 17 1 19 61 44 109 5 3
Kurt Suzuki R 36 C 304 276 34 74 15 0 12 53 17 38 0 0
Howie Kendrick R 36 1B 339 309 43 90 19 1 10 41 23 53 4 2
Mac Williamson R 29 LF 325 292 42 71 14 0 16 53 27 85 3 2
Michael A. Taylor R 29 CF 378 346 43 79 20 2 10 35 28 121 17 6
Raudy Read R 26 C 369 348 41 87 19 2 12 48 17 75 1 1
Tres Barrera R 25 C 360 327 36 74 17 1 8 34 25 79 1 1
Adrían Sanchez R 29 SS 347 325 35 82 18 2 5 32 16 61 8 4
Wilmer Difo B 28 2B 435 394 51 97 14 3 7 35 34 88 11 5
Jakson Reetz R 24 C 354 312 37 62 12 1 10 36 31 107 2 3
Welington Castillo R 33 C 294 273 26 67 13 0 11 47 17 81 0 0
Ryan Zimmerman R 35 1B 350 317 43 81 17 1 14 54 28 72 1 0
Carlos Tocci R 24 CF 426 389 42 96 14 4 4 31 26 83 4 7
Alex Dunlap R 25 C 202 177 19 33 7 0 4 15 19 68 0 0
Taylor Gushue B 26 C 336 308 35 69 14 1 11 39 22 90 0 0
Collin Cowgill R 34 CF 281 253 31 53 11 1 7 29 21 77 5 2
Jake Noll R 26 3B 518 485 55 119 19 2 11 51 23 104 6 2
Luis Sardiñas B 27 SS 314 290 32 74 12 1 4 27 16 53 3 5
Alec Keller L 28 RF 401 375 42 98 16 3 3 32 20 70 6 1
Brandon Snyder R 33 1B 425 391 51 87 19 1 20 60 25 153 2 1
Drew Ward L 25 3B 418 377 45 80 17 1 13 48 36 159 1 1
Luis García L 20 SS 588 558 59 138 21 6 7 44 21 110 11 6
Bengie González B 30 SS 332 304 30 67 14 2 3 24 23 66 5 4
Hunter Jones R 28 CF 374 339 36 74 12 3 6 31 25 98 9 4
Dante Bichette Jr. R 27 1B 337 309 33 74 15 3 5 31 23 71 1 1
Chris Dominguez R 33 1B 294 275 32 64 14 1 10 35 11 90 5 3
Andrew Stevenson L 26 CF 473 434 48 107 16 5 6 40 31 121 12 6
Nick Banks L 25 RF 484 451 45 102 20 3 8 42 25 126 7 4
Emilio Bonifácio B 35 CF 276 255 28 62 11 3 4 27 16 58 12 5
Cole Freeman R 25 2B 536 478 55 110 23 3 3 35 38 83 20 7
Ian Sagdal L 27 3B 488 451 49 108 24 3 7 47 31 113 3 2
Austin Davidson L 27 1B 376 337 40 76 18 2 7 35 34 86 3 4
Rhett Wiseman L 26 RF 443 400 47 80 17 3 15 51 35 155 6 5
KJ Harrison R 23 1B 492 445 51 91 22 1 14 52 41 150 1 2
Chuck Taylor B 26 LF 494 446 52 103 20 2 8 45 41 113 2 2
Tyler Goeddel R 27 CF 310 277 28 55 10 3 3 22 26 96 4 3
Manuel Geraldo B 23 SS 528 500 49 110 16 6 8 49 23 155 13 5

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Juan Soto .295 .413 .565 149 .270 .326 9.1 -1 6.0 Ken Griffey Jr.
Trea Turner .282 .341 .466 106 .185 .330 6.6 0 4.0 Rafael Furcal
Victor Robles .265 .336 .431 96 .166 .318 5.5 9 3.3 Chris James
Adam Eaton .285 .365 .425 104 .140 .334 6.0 5 2.6 Pat Kelly
Starlin Castro .290 .323 .465 100 .175 .321 5.7 -3 2.2 Freddy Sanchez
Carter Kieboom .253 .333 .412 91 .159 .311 5.0 -1 2.0 Dale Sveum
Brian Dozier .246 .333 .452 100 .206 .278 5.4 -2 2.0 Dick McAuliffe
Asdrúbal Cabrera .273 .340 .465 105 .192 .311 5.9 -8 1.6 Ron Belliard
Eric Thames .242 .341 .505 115 .264 .305 6.1 -3 1.4 Phil Hiatt
Yan Gomes .234 .305 .406 81 .172 .283 4.4 3 1.2 Keith McDonald
Jacob Wilson .243 .316 .423 88 .180 .281 4.8 0 1.1 Tony Schrager
Yadiel Hernandez .266 .335 .447 100 .182 .317 5.5 -3 0.8 Joel Youngblood
Kurt Suzuki .268 .326 .453 98 .185 .274 5.4 -6 0.8 Mike Lieberthal
Howie Kendrick .291 .345 .456 105 .165 .325 6.0 -2 0.8 Jerry Mumphrey
Mac Williamson .243 .314 .455 95 .212 .288 5.1 1 0.7 Ozzie Timmons
Michael A. Taylor .228 .287 .384 71 .156 .321 4.0 4 0.6 Colin Porter
Raudy Read .250 .287 .420 79 .170 .287 4.3 -3 0.5 Angel Rodriguez
Tres Barrera .226 .290 .358 66 .131 .275 3.6 2 0.4 Drew Butera
Adrían Sanchez .252 .289 .366 68 .114 .297 3.8 3 0.4 Jose Olmeda
Wilmer Difo .246 .308 .350 70 .104 .301 3.9 4 0.4 Kevin Castleberry
Jakson Reetz .199 .289 .340 62 .141 .267 3.2 3 0.4 Casey Smith
Welington Castillo .245 .293 .414 80 .168 .309 4.3 -3 0.4 Robert Machado
Ryan Zimmerman .256 .317 .448 95 .192 .290 5.2 -2 0.3 Casey Parsons
Carlos Tocci .247 .300 .334 64 .087 .305 3.3 6 0.1 John Marquardt
Alex Dunlap .186 .277 .294 48 .107 .276 2.7 4 0.1 Nicholas Derba
Taylor Gushue .224 .277 .383 68 .159 .280 3.7 -2 0.1 Brandon Marsters
Collin Cowgill .209 .279 .344 60 .134 .272 3.3 2 -0.1 Thomas Johnson
Jake Noll .245 .284 .361 65 .115 .292 3.7 1 -0.2 Pat Cottrell
Luis Sardiñas .255 .297 .345 65 .090 .300 3.4 -1 -0.2 Tom Veryzer
Alec Keller .261 .301 .344 66 .083 .315 3.9 4 -0.2 Raul Tovar
Brandon Snyder .223 .278 .430 79 .207 .307 4.1 0 -0.2 Darrell Whitmore
Drew Ward .212 .285 .366 67 .154 .327 3.5 -2 -0.3 Ricky Magdaleno
Luis García .247 .274 .344 59 .097 .297 3.4 1 -0.4 Ricky Gutierrez
Bengie González .220 .275 .309 51 .089 .272 2.8 2 -0.4 Tim Cullen
Hunter Jones .218 .282 .324 56 .106 .289 3.2 1 -0.4 Jay Sitzman
Dante Bichette Jr. .239 .295 .356 67 .117 .296 3.7 2 -0.4 Greg Creek
Chris Dominguez .233 .272 .400 70 .167 .309 3.8 1 -0.5 Darrell Whitmore
Andrew Stevenson .247 .300 .348 67 .101 .329 3.7 -4 -0.5 Chris Roberson
Nick Banks .226 .272 .337 56 .111 .297 3.2 9 -0.6 Brennan Boesch
Emilio Bonifácio .243 .289 .357 66 .114 .301 3.8 -5 -0.6 Calvin Murray
Cole Freeman .230 .298 .310 58 .079 .273 3.4 -1 -0.6 John McDonald
Ian Sagdal .239 .289 .353 65 .113 .305 3.6 -3 -0.6 Javier Castillo
Austin Davidson .226 .301 .353 68 .128 .283 3.5 0 -0.7 Matt Bowser
Rhett Wiseman .200 .269 .370 63 .170 .283 3.3 3 -0.8 Victor Ferrante
KJ Harrison .204 .276 .353 61 .148 .274 3.2 4 -0.9 Julian Benavidez
Chuck Taylor .231 .300 .339 65 .108 .292 3.5 -1 -0.9 Scott Neuberger
Tyler Goeddel .199 .278 .289 47 .090 .292 2.6 -2 -1.0 Brian Blair
Manuel Geraldo .220 .255 .324 48 .104 .303 2.9 0 -1.1 Domingo Cedeno

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Max Scherzer R 35 13 6 3.00 27 27 174.0 132 58 24 39 236 3.07
Stephen Strasburg R 31 15 7 3.22 30 30 184.7 152 66 19 50 221 3.07
Patrick Corbin L 30 12 8 3.80 31 30 182.3 167 77 24 59 205 3.68
Steven Fuentes R 23 8 6 4.52 33 12 97.7 98 49 16 34 92 4.62
Anibal Sanchez R 36 7 7 4.88 24 23 123.7 129 67 23 44 108 5.02
Mario Sanchez R 25 8 8 4.86 27 21 116.7 126 63 21 26 91 4.78
Austin Voth R 28 7 7 4.97 25 24 117.7 122 65 21 41 109 4.85
Will Harris R 35 3 2 3.37 59 0 50.7 45 19 6 12 52 3.44
Erick Fedde R 27 5 5 4.90 27 19 108.3 117 59 17 41 87 4.89
Sean Doolittle L 33 5 3 3.59 55 0 52.7 46 21 8 11 61 3.52
Joe Ross R 27 6 6 4.95 30 17 100.0 109 55 17 35 83 4.93
Wander Suero R 28 7 5 3.97 70 0 68.0 64 30 8 25 72 3.87
Jeremy Hellickson R 33 5 6 5.21 19 18 93.3 99 54 18 29 69 5.30
Tyler Eppler R 27 8 10 5.41 27 24 138.0 162 83 26 41 97 5.27
Ryne Harper R 31 3 3 4.20 53 0 55.7 55 26 8 16 52 4.15
Fernando Rodney R 43 4 3 4.22 58 0 53.3 49 25 5 29 56 4.04
Tyler Mapes R 28 6 7 5.40 23 22 118.3 137 71 19 45 75 5.32
Jordan Mills L 28 5 4 4.31 43 0 54.3 51 26 5 29 52 4.23
Austen Williams R 27 5 5 5.22 26 12 81.0 89 47 14 31 69 5.06
Andrew Istler R 27 3 3 4.32 34 0 50.0 49 24 7 20 47 4.50
James Bourque R 26 4 4 4.43 49 0 63.0 56 31 8 35 75 4.26
Kevin Quackenbush R 31 4 3 4.45 52 0 56.7 53 28 10 18 65 4.24
Jake Buchanan R 30 5 6 5.48 24 20 111.7 136 68 17 39 66 5.21
Aaron Barrett R 32 1 1 4.40 44 0 43.0 41 21 5 21 40 4.44
Kyle McGowin R 28 6 7 5.48 24 20 110.0 118 67 22 40 107 5.09
David Hernandez R 35 4 3 4.47 54 0 52.3 51 26 8 20 54 4.36
Daniel Hudson R 33 5 4 4.50 60 0 58.0 56 29 9 25 57 4.73
Hunter Strickland R 31 3 2 4.46 46 0 40.3 39 20 5 16 36 4.35
Jacob Condra-Bogan R 25 5 5 4.69 38 1 55.7 60 29 9 13 41 4.67
Fernando Abad L 34 3 3 4.56 53 0 49.3 49 25 8 13 44 4.36
Wil Crowe R 25 7 9 5.59 24 24 125.7 141 78 22 54 98 5.35
Tony Sipp L 36 1 1 4.55 41 0 27.7 27 14 4 11 26 4.48
Javy Guerra R 34 3 2 4.62 48 0 60.3 61 31 8 23 54 4.36
Josh Lucas R 29 2 2 4.78 38 1 49.0 51 26 6 22 43 4.49
Jhonatan German R 25 4 4 4.66 44 0 58.0 60 30 8 23 46 4.78
Tanner Rainey R 27 4 4 4.70 63 0 61.3 47 32 8 50 89 4.61
George Kontos R 35 2 2 4.84 37 1 44.7 48 24 7 15 34 4.84
Jonny Venters L 35 1 1 4.72 37 0 26.7 25 14 2 20 26 4.57
Dakota Bacus R 29 4 4 4.85 40 1 52.0 51 28 7 27 49 4.78
Roenis Elías L 31 4 5 5.29 36 7 68.0 74 40 11 31 53 5.22
Kyle Finnegan R 28 3 2 4.81 42 0 48.7 47 26 7 26 52 4.64
Ben Braymer L 26 6 7 5.68 25 22 115.7 128 73 21 56 92 5.58
Sam Freeman L 33 2 2 5.04 43 0 55.3 56 31 7 33 48 5.04
Brandon Snyder R 33 1 1 8.53 6 0 6.3 9 6 3 2 4 9.02
Logan Ondrusek R 35 3 4 5.89 23 10 65.7 74 43 14 28 53 5.75
Michael Blazek R 31 2 3 5.64 38 3 52.7 57 33 10 28 46 5.61
Andrew Lee R 26 4 5 5.93 26 14 88.0 87 58 12 74 84 5.77
Scott Copeland R 32 5 7 5.95 25 18 101.3 114 67 18 54 78 5.70
Jackson Tetreault R 24 6 8 6.04 24 24 113.3 132 76 21 61 82 5.94
Joan Baez R 25 5 7 6.09 36 11 78.3 84 53 10 64 58 6.00
Ronald Peña R 28 1 2 5.85 37 0 47.7 49 31 9 30 45 5.82
Derek Self R 30 3 4 5.78 45 1 67.0 81 43 14 18 43 5.60
Bryan Bonnell R 26 4 6 6.53 40 1 60.7 72 44 16 23 47 6.39
J.J. Hoover R 32 4 6 6.70 32 13 84.7 99 63 23 39 75 6.46

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Max Scherzer 12.2 2.0 1.2 5.6% 34.2% .281 147 68 4.7 Kevin Brown
Stephen Strasburg 10.8 2.4 0.9 6.6% 29.3% .292 137 73 4.6 Orel Hershiser
Patrick Corbin 10.1 2.9 1.2 7.7% 26.8% .302 116 86 3.4 Tom Glavine
Steven Fuentes 8.5 3.1 1.5 8.0% 21.7% .297 98 102 1.0 Howie Krist
Anibal Sanchez 7.9 3.2 1.7 8.2% 20.0% .294 90 111 0.9 Howard Ehmke
Mario Sanchez 7.0 2.0 1.6 5.2% 18.2% .296 91 110 0.9 Dave Eiland
Austin Voth 8.3 3.1 1.6 8.0% 21.2% .300 89 113 0.8 Ed Wojna
Will Harris 9.2 2.1 1.1 5.8% 25.1% .287 131 77 0.7 Paul Quantrill
Erick Fedde 7.2 3.4 1.4 8.5% 18.1% .303 90 111 0.7 Jim McDonald
Sean Doolittle 10.4 1.9 1.4 5.2% 28.6% .288 123 81 0.7 Craig Lefferts
Joe Ross 7.5 3.2 1.5 7.9% 18.8% .305 89 112 0.6 Jim McDonald
Wander Suero 9.5 3.3 1.1 8.5% 24.6% .304 111 90 0.5 Gary Majewski
Jeremy Hellickson 6.7 2.8 1.7 7.1% 17.0% .284 85 118 0.4 Ned Garver
Tyler Eppler 6.3 2.7 1.7 6.7% 15.8% .308 81 123 0.3 A.J. Sager
Ryne Harper 8.4 2.6 1.3 6.8% 22.0% .297 105 95 0.3 Kent Tekulve
Fernando Rodney 9.5 4.9 0.8 12.3% 23.7% .306 105 96 0.3 Ted Abernathy
Tyler Mapes 5.7 3.4 1.4 8.4% 14.0% .304 82 122 0.3 Kevin Hodges
Jordan Mills 8.6 4.8 0.8 12.0% 21.5% .301 102 98 0.2 Matt Dunbar
Austen Williams 7.7 3.4 1.6 8.6% 19.1% .309 84 118 0.2 Bill Swift
Andrew Istler 8.5 3.6 1.3 9.2% 21.6% .298 102 98 0.2 Mark Lee
James Bourque 10.7 5.0 1.1 12.5% 26.9% .304 100 100 0.2 Clay Bryant
Kevin Quackenbush 10.3 2.9 1.6 7.5% 27.2% .299 99 101 0.1 Matt Whiteside
Jake Buchanan 5.3 3.1 1.4 7.7% 13.0% .314 80 124 0.1 Heath Totten
Aaron Barrett 8.4 4.4 1.0 11.1% 21.1% .295 100 100 0.1 Don Brennan
Kyle McGowin 8.8 3.3 1.8 8.2% 22.0% .309 80 124 0.1 Chris Beasley
David Hernandez 9.3 3.4 1.4 8.8% 23.9% .303 99 101 0.1 Darrin Babineaux
Daniel Hudson 8.8 3.9 1.4 9.8% 22.4% .294 98 102 0.1 Don McMahon
Hunter Strickland 8.0 3.6 1.1 9.1% 20.6% .293 99 101 0.1 Eddie Watt
Jacob Condra-Bogan 6.6 2.1 1.5 5.4% 17.2% .295 94 106 0.1 Bill Castro
Fernando Abad 8.0 2.4 1.5 6.3% 21.3% .291 97 103 0.1 Joe Hoerner
Wil Crowe 7.0 3.9 1.6 9.5% 17.2% .306 79 127 0.1 Jake Joseph
Tony Sipp 8.5 3.6 1.3 9.2% 21.7% .295 97 103 0.0 Vic Darensbourg
Javy Guerra 8.1 3.4 1.2 8.7% 20.5% .301 95 105 0.0 Howie Reed
Josh Lucas 7.9 4.0 1.1 10.1% 19.7% .310 92 108 0.0 Bob Trowbridge
Jhonatan German 7.1 3.6 1.2 8.9% 17.9% .295 95 106 0.0 Ray Herbert
Tanner Rainey 13.1 7.3 1.2 17.7% 31.6% .298 94 106 0.0 Bryce Florie
George Kontos 6.9 3.0 1.4 7.7% 17.3% .297 91 110 0.0 Fred Gladding
Jonny Venters 8.8 6.8 0.7 16.1% 21.0% .307 93 107 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Dakota Bacus 8.5 4.7 1.2 11.6% 21.0% .299 91 110 0.0 Ted Abernathy
Roenis Elías 7.0 4.1 1.5 10.1% 17.3% .301 83 120 0.0 John Curtis
Kyle Finnegan 9.6 4.8 1.3 11.9% 23.9% .305 92 109 -0.1 Mike Bumstead
Ben Braymer 7.2 4.4 1.6 10.6% 17.4% .303 78 129 -0.1 Greg Kubes
Sam Freeman 7.8 5.4 1.1 13.0% 18.9% .301 87 114 -0.2 Marshall Bridges
Brandon Snyder 5.7 2.8 4.3 6.9% 13.8% .300 52 193 -0.3 Jose Bautista
Logan Ondrusek 7.3 3.8 1.9 9.4% 17.8% .302 75 134 -0.3 Alan Benes
Michael Blazek 7.9 4.8 1.7 11.6% 19.1% .303 78 128 -0.4 Jerry Johnson
Andrew Lee 8.6 7.6 1.2 17.4% 19.8% .301 74 134 -0.4 John D’Acquisto
Scott Copeland 6.9 4.8 1.6 11.5% 16.6% .306 74 135 -0.4 Russ Ortiz
Jackson Tetreault 6.5 4.8 1.7 11.5% 15.4% .308 73 137 -0.5 Preston Larrison
Joan Baez 6.7 7.4 1.1 16.8% 15.2% .302 72 138 -0.6 Lloyd Allen
Ronald Peña 8.5 5.7 1.7 13.5% 20.3% .296 75 133 -0.6 Ryan Baker
Derek Self 5.8 2.4 1.9 6.0% 14.4% .305 76 131 -0.7 Eric Moody
Bryan Bonnell 7.0 3.4 2.4 8.3% 17.0% .301 68 148 -1.1 Blake Mayo
J.J. Hoover 8.0 4.1 2.4 10.0% 19.2% .305 66 152 -1.1 Ken Ray

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

We hoped you liked reading 2020 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals by Dan Szymborski!

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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mervdiddy
Member
Member
mervdiddy

Comps of Kevin Brown, Orel Hershiser, and Tom Glavine at the front of your rotation seems like a very good thing.

J. Paquin
Member
J. Paquin

Depending on the years of course! Still pretty good regardless. I wish the comps had a year (or range of years) on it to compare which era of player the projected performance compares with. Early career Curt Schilling is good, but late career Curt Schilling is lights out.

Da Bear
Member
Da Bear

And nobody wants to be stuck with the post-career Curt Schilling comp.