2021 Positional Power Rankings: Bullpen (No. 1-15)
Earlier today, Eric Longenhagen previewed baseball’s lesser bullpens. Now, Dan Szymborski takes a look at the relief corps projected to be the league’s best.
Over the last 10 to 15 years, there have been gradual changes to how bullpens are built and deployed. Clubs are more willing than ever to admit that their closer is simply the best pitcher on their roster rather than one blessed with magical abilities, able to secure the final outs of a game where lesser men would fail. Closers are still a fairly big deal, mind you, but the trend of late has been to talk more about bullpens in terms of the entire unit, rather than just the closer and his backing band. As such, that’s how we rank them. There’s not a lot of turnover this year, with 11 of the top 15 teams from last season returning.
It will be interesting to see what effects the shortened 2020 season has on bullpen usage in 2021. By the time we get to October, it will have been two years since any pitcher threw 200 innings, and teams are likely going to protect their starters more than usual this season. Nobody really knows what the long-term effects will be of throwing pitchers into a 162-game marathon after a weird, shortened sprint season, one that featured two spring trainings set three months apart. Tommy John surgery may have a high success rate these days, but that doesn’t mean anyone wants to flirt with it.
We sometimes pooh-pooh the value of bullpens because of their volatility, but the fact is, the share of innings thrown by relievers has steadily increased over the last half-century, with their proportion of innings going from just over a quarter in the mid-70s to nearly half last year.
Forty-four percent of innings in 2020 were thrown by relievers and there’s no reason to expect a sudden reversal in 2021. It’s not outside the realm of possibility that 20 years from now, there’s no actual distinction between starters and relievers, with those classifications largely considered a relic. That’s still speculative, but for now, even if a reliever can’t match the value of a Jacob deGrom, bullpens have a very real effect on who makes the playoffs and who pops bubbly in late October.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aroldis Chapman | 63 | 14.1 | 4.3 | 0.9 | .310 | 79.7% | 2.85 | 2.94 | 1.9 |
Chad Green | 64 | 11.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | .304 | 78.0% | 3.39 | 3.53 | 1.4 |
Darren O’Day | 62 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | .300 | 74.5% | 4.22 | 4.53 | 0.3 |
Jonathan Loaisiga | 64 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | .313 | 74.4% | 3.93 | 4.01 | 0.6 |
Nick Nelson | 62 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 1.3 | .309 | 72.8% | 4.68 | 4.79 | 0.0 |
Justin Wilson | 50 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | .307 | 75.3% | 4.02 | 4.15 | 0.3 |
Luis Cessa | 47 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | .306 | 71.9% | 4.52 | 4.64 | 0.0 |
Zack Britton | 35 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 0.6 | .303 | 74.2% | 3.59 | 3.85 | 0.2 |
Michael King | 30 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | .306 | 70.8% | 4.59 | 4.65 | 0.0 |
Domingo Germán | 28 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | .304 | 72.6% | 4.51 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
Lucas Luetge | 20 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | .309 | 73.1% | 4.74 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
Tyler Lyons | 14 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | .311 | 73.3% | 4.76 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
Kyle Barraclough | 12 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | .304 | 72.3% | 5.00 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
Clarke Schmidt | 10 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | .309 | 70.8% | 4.80 | 4.89 | 0.0 |
Brooks Kriske | 4 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 1.4 | .307 | 73.7% | 4.81 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
Adam Warren | 4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | .302 | 72.1% | 4.66 | 4.78 | 0.0 |
Alexander Vizcaino | 3 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | .307 | 69.2% | 5.78 | 5.87 | -0.0 |
Albert Abreu | 3 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 | .308 | 70.3% | 5.76 | 5.98 | -0.0 |
Other RP | 2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 577 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | .307 | 74.3% | 4.08 | 4.22 | 4.8 |
Thanks to the Nick Anderson injury, the Yankees regain the top spot on our rankings after being beaten out by the Rays in 2020. While there’s no particular reason to worry about this group, there’s also no denying that it’s shallower than the Yankees bullpens of recent history. The club no longer employs Adam Ottavino or Dellin Betances and are no longer in the very enviable position of being able to shut down opposing teams in the late innings with a parade of closer-quality relievers.
Further thinning the team’s depth (at least for now) is Zack Britton’s recovery from elbow surgery, which will likely keep him out of action in the early months of 2021. That’s worrisome, especially since last year it seemed as if Aaron Boone didn’t have much confidence in the relievers outside of Britton, Aroldis Chapman, and Chad Green. With Justin Wilson set to also start the season on the IL, the bullpen finds itself light on reliable lefties.
Now, don’t get too upset about my relative grumbliness. This group is still one of the best in baseball (look where they’re ranked!), it’s just expected to achieve the same level of dominance it was in 2018 or ’19. Chapman missed part of 2020 due to a COVID-19 diagnosis but came back without missing a beat, and ranks second in our projections among all relievers. Green, meanwhile, ranks fifth. That’s a combination any team would envy.
The team might make up for its lesser depth by relying on more innings from pitchers like Jonathan Loaisiga and Nick Nelson, who are both quite capable of going several frames if the need arises. Johnny Lasagna is particularly interesting, as the team hasn’t completely given up on the idea of him as a starter and all of the projection systems have his ERA around or below four.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Edwin Díaz | 63 | 14.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | .315 | 80.7% | 2.76 | 2.76 | 1.9 |
Trevor May | 64 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .303 | 76.9% | 3.49 | 3.55 | 1.3 |
Miguel Castro | 62 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 0.9 | .299 | 73.6% | 3.82 | 3.99 | 0.5 |
Dellin Betances | 58 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | .306 | 76.0% | 3.70 | 3.99 | 0.4 |
Jeurys Familia | 56 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 0.9 | .307 | 73.3% | 4.08 | 4.23 | 0.2 |
Aaron Loup | 52 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | .311 | 74.7% | 3.64 | 3.88 | 0.3 |
Seth Lugo | 46 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 1.4 | .304 | 74.4% | 3.78 | 3.85 | 0.1 |
Jacob Barnes | 38 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | .307 | 73.5% | 4.01 | 4.11 | 0.1 |
Robert Gsellman | 34 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | .307 | 71.8% | 4.36 | 4.51 | -0.0 |
Drew Smith | 26 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .303 | 72.7% | 4.30 | 4.50 | 0.0 |
Sam McWilliams | 21 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | .303 | 71.3% | 4.70 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
Stephen Tarpley | 14 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.0 | .308 | 73.3% | 4.10 | 4.32 | 0.0 |
Arodys Vizcaíno | 8 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | .302 | 75.3% | 4.26 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
Trevor Hildenberger | 6 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .307 | 71.8% | 4.39 | 4.56 | 0.0 |
Joey Lucchesi | 5 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | .306 | 73.3% | 4.17 | 4.31 | 0.0 |
Sean Reid-Foley | 5 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | .298 | 73.8% | 4.36 | 4.65 | 0.0 |
Corey Oswalt | 4 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | .303 | 71.9% | 4.46 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
Total | 560 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | .306 | 74.7% | 3.79 | 3.94 | 4.7 |
Nobody wants to look stupid, so after I loudly insisted he would rebound, I was quite pleased to see Edwin Díaz’s inflated home run total from 2019 dip back to levels commensurate with his abilities. The Mets’ relievers were strictly middle-of-the-pack in 2020, but Díaz wasn’t the problem, returning to a sterling 2.18 FIP despite a few more walks than you’d like to see. His slider was also once again effective after taking a season off.
The addition of Trevor May may be a loss for those who prefer watching him play Fortnite on Twitch, but it’s a boost for the Mets. May tinkered with his arsenal before last season, streamlining his curveball and slider into a single, harder slider with a bit more vertical drop than is typical of such a pitch. May’s career-high 39.6% strikeout rate was largely due to this change; the slider and curveball combined made up 19% of his strikeouts in 2018 and ’19, while the modified slider was responsible for 34% of his whiffs last year.
Miguel Castro’s velocity continued to climb in 2020 (averaging 98 mph) and he posted one of the more shocking strikeout rate increases I can remember, bumping his K/9 by just over five strikeouts per game over his prior full-season best. Note that I don’t mean five percent, but five batters. He can still get walloped at times, so he’s not my first choice to come in with runners on base, but he’s hard to hit when his slider’s working. At 87 mph, that pitch is up 4 mph since he was a rookie, and he’s not cheating there by throwing it as a cutter; it has more horizontal movement than the typical slider does.
One pitcher who might not match his projections is Dellin Betances. The various computer projections still see a lot of him from back when he could hit triple digits with his fastball. That kind of velocity seems to be firmly in the rearview, and he didn’t do anything this spring to shake my pessimism. Jeurys Familia is another risk, though the projections have faith that he’ll be at least adequate. But command is a problem, and even though it appears Familia will not be used in the most crucial of situations, his leash isn’t endlessly long.
Helping out the bullpen is the fact that the Mets added rotation depth this offseason, preventing them from having to dragoon Seth Lugo into starting.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liam Hendriks | 68 | 12.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | .309 | 78.5% | 3.11 | 3.02 | 1.9 |
Aaron Bummer | 62 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | .304 | 74.8% | 3.40 | 3.66 | 1.0 |
Evan Marshall | 60 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | .309 | 74.7% | 3.85 | 4.03 | 0.6 |
Codi Heuer | 58 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .306 | 73.2% | 4.00 | 4.15 | 0.4 |
Matt Foster | 56 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | .300 | 72.8% | 4.71 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
Garrett Crochet | 53 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | .305 | 75.9% | 3.31 | 3.41 | 0.7 |
Jace Fry | 44 | 10.4 | 5.2 | 1.0 | .309 | 73.5% | 4.09 | 4.17 | 0.1 |
Michael Kopech | 36 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.3 | .306 | 72.2% | 4.58 | 4.71 | 0.0 |
Reynaldo López | 34 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | .299 | 71.4% | 4.82 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
Carlos Rodón | 26 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | .308 | 72.1% | 4.73 | 4.85 | 0.0 |
Nik Turley | 23 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | .308 | 72.8% | 4.50 | 4.68 | 0.0 |
Jimmy Lambert | 12 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | .307 | 71.5% | 4.84 | 4.94 | -0.0 |
Zack Burdi | 12 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | .308 | 73.3% | 4.87 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
José Ruiz | 8 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | .307 | 72.7% | 4.77 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
Tyler Johnson | 6 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | .307 | 74.4% | 4.22 | 4.49 | 0.0 |
Jonathan Stiever | 5 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 2.1 | .303 | 67.9% | 5.63 | 5.63 | -0.0 |
Bernardo Flores Jr. | 3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | .308 | 71.2% | 4.58 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
Other RP | 3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 569 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | .306 | 73.9% | 4.03 | 4.17 | 4.6 |
Players like Luis Robert and Eloy Jiménez rightly got the most attention during Chicago’s 2020 resurgence, but the team’s bullpen was a significant plus as well. Despite not having any real household names outside of Alex Colomé, the Sox had a top 10 bullpen last time around, and the organization hasn’t beat that unit’s 86 ERA- since the 2005 team that won the World Series.
Colomé’s gone, but the team got someone even better, landing Liam Hendriks, our top-ranked reliever in our free agent Top 50. In 2020, Hendriks proved that his 2019 breakout was no fluke, and he’s now a galaxy away from the soft-tossing sort-of prospect he was a decade ago with the Twins. Often, these hard-throwing relievers have one troubling flaw, like allowing too many walks or gopher balls, but Hendriks suffers from neither of those maladies.
The projections are not sold on Matt Foster, but they’re quite convinced about the rest of the pen. Providing a bit of help is the return of Aaron Bummer, who was available for only nine innings in 2020 due to biceps and nerve injuries. Bummer’s breaking stuff is almost an afterthought; he has one real pitch, a high-90s sinker, something you don’t often see from a lefty. It’s a heavy one and batters hit it hard but straight into the ground. Of the pitchers with 100 sinkers put into play in 2019 and ’20, Bummers’ -9 degree launch angle tops the list of worm-burners.
Also available in the ‘pen, possibly for longer outings than typical, are Garrett Crochet and Michael Kopech. I’m a fan of Earl Weaver’s strategy of breaking in pitchers by giving them some bullpen time, and I’d rather see Crochet facing major leaguers than Triple-A hitters. Kopech is phenomenally talented, but he hasn’t pitched big league innings since 2018 (he underwent Tommy John and then, after recovering, opted out of the 2020 season), meaning he’s too big a risk to count on in the rotation right now. Hopefully that will change at some point in the near feature.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drew Pomeranz | 56 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | .311 | 76.6% | 3.55 | 3.69 | 1.0 |
Emilio Pagán | 63 | 10.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | .297 | 75.2% | 3.75 | 3.88 | 0.8 |
Mark Melancon | 62 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | .311 | 73.7% | 3.82 | 3.96 | 0.5 |
Keone Kela | 58 | 11.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | .301 | 76.4% | 3.35 | 3.41 | 0.7 |
Pierce Johnson | 57 | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | .305 | 74.0% | 3.78 | 3.82 | 0.4 |
Tim Hill | 53 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | .307 | 73.4% | 3.58 | 3.76 | 0.3 |
Craig Stammen | 46 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | .309 | 72.6% | 3.71 | 3.72 | 0.1 |
Matt Strahm | 44 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | .302 | 73.4% | 3.95 | 4.13 | 0.2 |
Ryan Weathers | 38 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .307 | 71.3% | 4.62 | 4.82 | -0.0 |
Austin Adams | 34 | 13.1 | 4.9 | 0.9 | .310 | 78.3% | 3.16 | 3.37 | 0.1 |
Dan Altavilla | 22 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.2 | .301 | 73.9% | 4.15 | 4.34 | 0.0 |
Adrian Morejon | 20 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .315 | 75.2% | 3.66 | 3.74 | 0.1 |
Taylor Williams | 14 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .310 | 73.1% | 4.18 | 4.31 | 0.0 |
Nabil Crismatt | 10 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | .305 | 72.3% | 4.29 | 4.38 | 0.0 |
Michel Baez | 5 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | .307 | 72.8% | 4.14 | 4.25 | 0.0 |
Javy Guerra | 5 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | .304 | 72.0% | 4.12 | 4.11 | 0.0 |
Anderson Espinoza | 3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 584 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | .306 | 74.4% | 3.75 | 3.88 | 4.3 |
One of the amazing things about the Padres is how quickly they assembled what is essentially an entirely new, but still dominant bullpen after breaking apart the old one. In 2018, they ranked second in relief WAR behind only the Yankees, but despite trading off many of that ‘pen’s key contributions, they haven’t fallen out of the top 10 overall. Of the main members of that group, only Craig Stammen and Matt Strahm remain.
The Padres didn’t do it in the simplest way (splashing large amounts of cash), though one of the exceptions was Drew Pomeranz, who signed a four-year, $32 million deal before 2020, a move that showed a good deal of faith in his continued success as a reliever. Pierce Johnson earned a two-year deal based on his performance in Japan, Keone Kela signed for a discount because of his injury issues, and Mark Melancon was willing to sign for one year and $2 million with a mutual option after attracting little interest this winter.
The Padres don’t have an Aroldis Chapman or Josh Hader at the top, but what they do have is a deep pool of talent: of the 17 relievers listed on their depth chart, only one, Ryan Weathers, has a little negative sign before his projected WAR. With 10 relievers projected with an ERA under four, the Padres could just give their bullpen weekends off and pitch the B-team without any major disasters. Yes, I know roster rules don’t work like that.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Hader | 66 | 14.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .294 | 81.1% | 2.93 | 3.03 | 2.1 |
Devin Williams | 65 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.0 | .311 | 77.3% | 3.43 | 3.64 | 1.0 |
Brent Suter | 64 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | .304 | 74.4% | 3.92 | 4.08 | 0.4 |
Eric Yardley | 63 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | .308 | 72.0% | 4.16 | 4.36 | 0.3 |
Drew Rasmussen | 58 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | .309 | 74.7% | 4.05 | 4.16 | 0.2 |
J.P. Feyereisen | 58 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | .302 | 73.2% | 4.40 | 4.56 | 0.2 |
Ray Black | 52 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | .300 | 73.9% | 4.42 | 4.48 | 0.0 |
Angel Perdomo | 44 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 1.2 | .307 | 73.8% | 4.46 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
Freddy Peralta | 40 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | .301 | 73.7% | 4.16 | 4.21 | 0.1 |
Josh Lindblom | 37 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | .308 | 71.6% | 4.42 | 4.34 | 0.0 |
Justin Topa | 28 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .312 | 71.7% | 4.40 | 4.38 | 0.0 |
Phil Bickford | 24 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | .305 | 71.4% | 5.08 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
Aaron Ashby | 22 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 1.2 | .304 | 73.0% | 4.72 | 5.15 | -0.0 |
Brad Boxberger | 14 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | .305 | 73.2% | 4.79 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
Bobby Wahl | 10 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 | .309 | 74.3% | 4.26 | 4.35 | 0.0 |
Eric Lauer | 8 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | .310 | 71.5% | 4.81 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
Jordan Zimmermann | 6 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | .313 | 69.3% | 5.14 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
Clayton Andrews | 5 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Zack Brown | 4 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | .307 | 71.3% | 4.80 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
Dylan File | 3 | 7.8 | 2.3 | 1.7 | .307 | 70.7% | 4.72 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
Zack Godley | 3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | .321 | 71.1% | 4.64 | 4.47 | 0.0 |
Other RP | 5 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 679 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | .306 | 74.0% | 4.12 | 4.24 | 4.2 |
You can have a great bullpen without a Josh Hader at the top of it, but it’s much easier when you do have him at your disposal. Hader’s the reliever food chain’s apex predator, thanks to his utter unhittability, which I swear is a word. The Brew Crew has a lot of good options, and as a result, they’ve mostly moved on from using Hader in multi-inning outings, leaving him to serve as a traditional closer.
One of those other options is Devin Williams, the NL Rookie of the Year in 2020. Moved out of the rotation as a prospect due to injury issues, Williams developed a wipeout changeup, a pitch I’d argue is the scariest of its genre in baseball. Command is sometimes an issue, and he’ll likely regress toward the mean in 2021, but there’s no reason he can’t be an effective fastball-change reliever as long as he remains healthy.
Providing a contrast in styles for the Brewers is Brent Suter, whose fastball would impress only Tim Wakefield and possibly Jered Weaver. It’s not as if Suter has amazing secondary pitches that fool batters or that the slowball has killer movement; he combines an almost uncanny ability to locate the pitch with a deceptive delivery. Joining Mild Thing is Eric Yardley, whose mid-80s sinker looks like an Aroldis Chapman fastball relative to his loopy, low-70s Greinke-esque curve. Hitters have yet to figure out how to drive that one, though; it ranked 12th in baseball for lowest xWOBA.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kenley Jansen | 63 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | .299 | 74.2% | 3.92 | 4.02 | 0.8 |
Blake Treinen | 67 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | .306 | 74.5% | 3.41 | 3.55 | 1.1 |
Victor González | 62 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | .306 | 74.4% | 3.70 | 3.96 | 0.5 |
Corey Knebel | 59 | 11.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | .306 | 76.7% | 3.70 | 3.85 | 0.6 |
Brusdar Graterol | 55 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | .307 | 74.9% | 3.39 | 3.58 | 0.5 |
Jimmy Nelson | 48 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | .311 | 74.1% | 4.01 | 4.17 | 0.2 |
Joe Kelly | 44 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 0.9 | .309 | 74.3% | 3.75 | 3.87 | 0.1 |
Dennis Santana | 43 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | .307 | 73.3% | 4.31 | 4.47 | 0.0 |
Tony Gonsolin | 40 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | .300 | 73.2% | 4.35 | 4.53 | 0.0 |
Scott Alexander | 30 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 0.7 | .307 | 74.1% | 3.71 | 3.96 | 0.1 |
Dustin May | 27 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | .306 | 73.4% | 3.76 | 3.91 | 0.1 |
David Price | 25 | 9.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | .303 | 75.1% | 3.95 | 4.23 | 0.0 |
Alex Vesia | 16 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | .302 | 73.4% | 4.31 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
Julio Urías | 16 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | .298 | 75.0% | 3.93 | 4.19 | 0.0 |
Brandon Morrow | 10 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | .308 | 74.5% | 3.70 | 3.83 | 0.0 |
Tommy Kahnle | 5 | 12.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | .315 | 77.2% | 3.16 | 3.08 | 0.0 |
Mitch White | 3 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .308 | 72.8% | 4.20 | 4.30 | 0.0 |
Other RP | 1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 614 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | .306 | 74.4% | 3.81 | 3.98 | 4.0 |
Kenley Jansen certainly didn’t look sharp in the playoffs last year, and he’s lost his top-end velocity, but he’s a lot more effective than he might appear to the naked eye. Part of the reason is that he’s still incredibly tough to crush one against; he led the league in hard-hit percentage among pitchers with 25 balls hit in play in 2020, allowing only eight hits of 95 mph or higher and two barrels.
The source of the disconnect between how he looks and how he pitched overall is likely the fact that his struggles came in high-leverage situations last season. In his high-leverage outings, he allowed a .375 wOBA, following up a middling .316 in those situations in 2019. This kind of performance typically isn’t predictive, but given that the Dodgers do have other options, I think I’d prefer not to take that chance.
So, who better to close? The Dodgers have a surprising number of question marks for a good bullpen. Blake Treinen is the obvious next man in the pecking order, but he’s also coming off the lowest strikeout rate of his career, which is rarely an auspicious sign. Corey Knebel is only 15 games removed from rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and Brusdar Graterol, one of my favorite prospects, really struggled to put away batters last year for a dude with a fastball that can hit 100. Jimmy Nelson hasn’t been fully healthy since 2017, and Joe Kelly will miss the start of the season after a sore shoulder limited him to 12 games (10 innings) in 2020, thought he did see limited postseason action.
Perhaps the most dependable reliever now is Victor González, who throws a hard sinker and a slider with good drop; both pitches stymied batters during his rookie campaign. Hitters were unable to achieve good loft against the sinker, resulting in a .287 xSLG. His slider’s 56.6% whiff rate was the fifth-best in baseball.
Rounding out the ‘pen are Tony Gonsolin and David Price, who will start the year in relief after Dustin May was named the team’s fifth starter. On most teams, they’d be in the rotation, and they likely will see some time there, but the Dodgers like having Plans B, C, D, and E at their disposal.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Martin | 65 | 9.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | .316 | 74.1% | 3.52 | 3.42 | 1.2 |
Will Smith | 64 | 12.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | .311 | 77.9% | 3.51 | 3.53 | 1.2 |
A.J. Minter | 60 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | .317 | 74.7% | 3.73 | 3.73 | 0.7 |
Tyler Matzek | 58 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.0 | .318 | 75.7% | 3.85 | 4.00 | 0.3 |
Josh Tomlin | 54 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | .313 | 69.7% | 4.99 | 4.85 | -0.1 |
Luke Jackson | 50 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | .324 | 73.4% | 4.01 | 3.95 | 0.3 |
Grant Dayton | 44 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | .311 | 74.1% | 4.40 | 4.42 | 0.0 |
Jacob Webb | 38 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | .306 | 72.4% | 4.72 | 4.89 | -0.0 |
Sean Newcomb | 35 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | .306 | 72.4% | 4.31 | 4.36 | 0.1 |
Nate Jones | 28 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | .316 | 73.5% | 4.15 | 4.29 | 0.0 |
Bryse Wilson | 28 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | .311 | 71.7% | 4.44 | 4.41 | 0.0 |
Chad Sobotka | 25 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.1 | .314 | 71.4% | 4.45 | 4.32 | 0.0 |
Patrick Weigel | 22 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | .308 | 71.4% | 5.14 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
Huascar Ynoa | 18 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.3 | .314 | 71.2% | 4.76 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
Kyle Wright | 15 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | .316 | 70.6% | 4.65 | 4.54 | -0.0 |
Kyle Muller | 12 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 1.2 | .309 | 72.1% | 4.74 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
Touki Toussaint | 8 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.2 | .315 | 72.3% | 4.50 | 4.53 | 0.0 |
Jasseel De La Cruz | 8 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | .310 | 70.7% | 4.75 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
Vìctor Arano | 4 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | .311 | 72.7% | 4.22 | 4.16 | 0.0 |
Thomas Burrows | 3 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.3 | .307 | 73.4% | 4.53 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
Other RP | 3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 642 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | .314 | 73.4% | 4.19 | 4.20 | 3.7 |
Chris Martin built on his 2019 successes, allowing only two runs in 20 games in 2020. Two of his bigger changes were to reintegrate his slider into his repertoire and use his cutter as one of his primary tools against lefties in all counts. But his filthiest pitch, I’d argue, is his splitter-change, which moves essentially like a high-80s circle-change, which befuddled pitch classification algorithms. It’s one of the reasons for his career reverse platoon-split, to the tune of an impressive 113 points of OPS.
Fighting with Martin for save opportunities is Will Smith. Smith’s 4.50 ERA in his brief 2020 is concerning, and a FIP over seven normally sets off blaring klaxons, but given the small sample, the projections all pretty much agree on a return to form. That the Braves didn’t panic about Smith’s 2020 is an indication that they’re not particularly concerned either. He was plenty sharp this spring.
Last year’s projections expected A.J. Minter’s concerning 2019 walks to magically disappear, and that’s basically what they did. Martin isn’t the only pitcher on the team to confuse pitch classification algorithms, as there’s disagreement about on which side of the line Minter’s cutter-slider falls on. Minter’s comfortable enough with the pitch that he’ll happily throw it inside against righties rather than going purely fastball-change. It’s an effective enough strategy to keep Minter from having extreme platoon splits, which serve to convert many lefty relievers into situational ones.
Tyler Matzek was one of the best stories of 2020. After nearly falling completely out of affiliated ball in recent years and making a couple of stops in the Indy Leagues, his reinvention as a reliever has earned him a second life in the majors.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diego Castillo | 65 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | .302 | 75.7% | 3.30 | 3.51 | 1.2 |
Pete Fairbanks | 67 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | .308 | 76.6% | 3.43 | 3.56 | 1.2 |
Ryan Thompson | 64 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .304 | 71.4% | 4.26 | 4.38 | 0.3 |
Collin McHugh | 60 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | .302 | 73.7% | 4.10 | 4.24 | 0.3 |
Chaz Roe | 58 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | .307 | 73.5% | 4.21 | 4.37 | 0.2 |
Shane McClanahan | 53 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | .303 | 73.2% | 4.49 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
Andrew Kittredge | 46 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | .309 | 74.7% | 3.67 | 3.81 | 0.1 |
Cody Reed | 40 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | .306 | 75.7% | 3.55 | 3.80 | 0.2 |
Trevor Richards | 34 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | .302 | 73.4% | 4.40 | 4.60 | 0.0 |
Ryan Sherriff | 32 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | .300 | 71.9% | 4.51 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
Oliver Drake | 28 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | .304 | 72.9% | 3.80 | 3.82 | 0.1 |
Nick Anderson | 24 | 12.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | .304 | 79.3% | 3.26 | 3.37 | 0.1 |
Luis Patiño | 18 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | .302 | 72.7% | 4.48 | 4.66 | 0.0 |
Jeffrey Springs | 16 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | .308 | 75.1% | 4.03 | 4.17 | 0.0 |
Josh Fleming | 12 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | .306 | 71.3% | 4.33 | 4.50 | 0.0 |
Brent Honeywell Jr. | 10 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | .324 | 69.8% | 4.83 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
Chris Mazza | 8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .304 | 71.7% | 4.38 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
Joe Ryan | 6 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 1.7 | .293 | 71.9% | 4.68 | 4.89 | -0.0 |
Brendan McKay | 6 | 10.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | .305 | 76.0% | 3.52 | 3.62 | 0.0 |
Stetson Allie | 5 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Hunter Strickland | 3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | .301 | 72.6% | 4.54 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
Total | 651 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .305 | 74.0% | 3.97 | 4.13 | 3.6 |
The loss of Nick Anderson to a partially torn ligament in his elbow is a big one for the Rays. He had the dreaded forearm soreness last year, causing him to miss time, but nothing looked terribly amiss until he ran of steam in the playoffs. It’s a good sign that surgery isn’t being recommended, but even in the best-case scenario where rest returns him to 100%, Tampa Bay don’t won’t have his services until at least the second half of the season.
Luckily for the Rays, they have a lot of experience building solid bullpens on the literal dime budget the front office is given to work with. Pete Fairbanks (and his high-90s fastball), who was picked up in the Nick Solak trade, is a good example of how the Rays build their bullpen. Slider-machine Chaz Roe returned on a one-year deal, and Collin McHugh will be a full-time reliever after opting-out of the 2020 season. McHugh put up a 4.70 ERA and a 4.43 FIP the last time we saw him in 2019, but it’s not as bad as it looks: his conversion back into a starting pitcher didn’t go well, and he returned to being effective as a reliever, with a 2.67 ERA and a 3.42 FIP.
There are lots of bullish forecasts for the Rays at the back-end of the rotation, with the projection systems all liking Cody Reed, Andrew Kittredge, and Oliver Drake. Jalen Beeks and Colin Poche will be unavailable due to Tommy John surgery, but Brendan McKay could be a late-season reinforcement as could Luis Patiño. I also put Jeffrey Springs on my breakout list even though he’s likely to pitch at Triple-A. But if he does dominate in the minors, the Rays are not a team to be biased against playing their farm hands.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alex Colomé | 65 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | .301 | 72.6% | 4.08 | 4.28 | 0.5 |
Taylor Rogers | 64 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | .312 | 76.5% | 3.30 | 3.42 | 1.3 |
Tyler Duffey | 62 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | .309 | 73.5% | 4.01 | 4.01 | 0.6 |
Cody Stashak | 58 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | .307 | 71.6% | 4.66 | 4.67 | 0.2 |
Caleb Thielbar | 56 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 | .304 | 72.3% | 4.49 | 4.59 | 0.2 |
Hansel Robles | 54 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | .303 | 72.3% | 4.47 | 4.50 | 0.2 |
Jorge Alcala | 45 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | .309 | 71.5% | 4.83 | 4.91 | 0.0 |
Lewis Thorpe | 38 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | .313 | 72.5% | 4.70 | 4.76 | 0.0 |
Randy Dobnak | 36 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | .313 | 69.7% | 4.61 | 4.62 | 0.0 |
Derek Law | 28 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | .313 | 72.7% | 4.47 | 4.56 | 0.0 |
Brandon Waddell | 25 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.4 | .306 | 70.6% | 5.07 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
Ian Gibaut | 18 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | .307 | 72.4% | 4.47 | 4.64 | 0.0 |
Shaun Anderson | 14 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | .310 | 70.4% | 5.01 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
Devin Smeltzer | 12 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | .306 | 70.0% | 5.02 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
Edwar Colina | 8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | .309 | 70.4% | 5.15 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
Juan Minaya | 6 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | .306 | 72.1% | 4.73 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
Glenn Sparkman | 5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | .313 | 68.4% | 5.21 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
Dakota Chalmers | 4 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 1.5 | .302 | 68.9% | 6.05 | 6.15 | -0.0 |
Ian Hamilton | 3 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | .305 | 72.3% | 4.43 | 4.56 | 0.0 |
Other RP | 11 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 612 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | .308 | 72.3% | 4.40 | 4.48 | 3.0 |
If you need proof that teams are less inclined to get over-exuberant about a pitcher based solely on a microscopic ERA these days, look no further than Alex Colomé, who the Twins landed on a one-year deal. His cutter is undoubtedly a hard pitch to connect with convincingly, but Statcast thinks he over-performed his velocity data by 82 points of slugging percentage. ZiPS is a bit more optimistic but still sees about 65 points of difference. There’s some projection system disagreement on Colomé, with ZiPS giving him a bit more of the benefit of the doubt, as he’s over-performed these types of peripheral stats for a few years now. One thing that is a concern is the dip in strikeout rate, which tends to be a leading indicator of a pitcher’s decline.
Taylor Rogers, on the other hand, is dominant; his ERA finished around four in 2020 largely being due to a .400 BABIP that is unlikely to repeat itself. Rogers is another one of those pitchers who is hard to characterize from a data standpoint, thanks to his slider/curve getting lumped together over the years. He throws them with a similar grip, but a differing release point. I’d call his breaking pitches a family of slurves, but sadly, slurve has become a pejorative term.
Tyler Duffey’s 2019 breakout continued in 2020, with his knuckle-curve extremely effective, giving me warm Mike Mussina memories. He’s continued tinkering with a slower curve that sits in the low-70s and has more drop to it, a definite contrast from the knuckle-curve that he can push to 85-86 mph.
After the front three, the quality drops a bit, and even though the Twins rank well here — there are no actual disasters in the bullpen — it feels like they should have added one more arm to the ‘pen this offseason. Colomé’s fine, but he can’t replace all the innings thrown by Trevor May, Sergio Romo, and Matt Wisler in 2020. Soft-tossing Randy Dobnak will be the team’s main option to take the mop-up innings.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
James Karinchak | 64 | 15.2 | 5.8 | 1.0 | .319 | 79.0% | 3.27 | 3.29 | 1.5 |
Nick Wittgren | 66 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | .307 | 73.1% | 4.31 | 4.41 | 0.3 |
Emmanuel Clase | 60 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | .309 | 74.0% | 3.58 | 3.68 | 0.9 |
Phil Maton | 58 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .313 | 73.9% | 3.88 | 3.84 | 0.5 |
Bryan Shaw | 56 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | .312 | 70.4% | 4.87 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
Oliver Pérez | 52 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | .305 | 73.0% | 4.11 | 4.32 | 0.1 |
Trevor Stephan | 46 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | .313 | 70.7% | 4.97 | 4.94 | -0.0 |
Kyle Nelson | 42 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.8 | .303 | 73.7% | 4.68 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
Cal Quantrill | 32 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | .315 | 69.7% | 4.89 | 4.76 | 0.0 |
Nick Sandlin | 30 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | .306 | 73.3% | 4.50 | 4.59 | 0.0 |
Logan Allen | 24 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | .309 | 70.4% | 5.11 | 5.19 | -0.0 |
Blake Parker | 20 | 10.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | .306 | 72.6% | 4.36 | 4.38 | 0.0 |
Cam Hill | 16 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | .310 | 71.3% | 5.02 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
Triston McKenzie | 14 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | .303 | 71.2% | 4.76 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
Anthony Gose | 10 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 2.4 | .311 | 67.9% | 8.88 | 9.36 | -0.1 |
Scott Moss | 8 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | .306 | 71.1% | 5.15 | 5.27 | -0.0 |
Sam Hentges | 5 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | .304 | 69.9% | 5.61 | 5.78 | -0.0 |
DJ Johnson | 3 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | .309 | 73.2% | 4.19 | 4.29 | 0.0 |
Jean Carlos Mejía | 3 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | .307 | 69.9% | 4.97 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
Other RP | 14 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 623 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | .310 | 72.7% | 4.40 | 4.46 | 3.0 |
Even though Brad Hand’s velocity decline is concerning, Cleveland’s decision to place their closer on outright waivers before turning down his option felt like one of the more cynical decisions made by a team this offseason. Of course, even if he’d been retained, hard-throwing James Karinchak would likely have passed Hand as the team’s best reliever. Karinchak’s control isn’t immaculate, but he misses bats and led the AL with the lowest contact rate among pitchers with 20 innings throwing in 2020.
Emmanuel Clase missed the 2020 season due to a performance-enhancing drug suspension but will likely join Karinchak in taking the highest-leverage innings this season. Karinchak throws hard, but Clase throws even harder, with his fastball maxing out at 101.8 mph in 2019. Sure, Jordan Hicks hit 104, but that’s not too shabby! Clase also throws the hardest slider this side of Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler. Cleveland didn’t want Clase as the centerpiece in the Corey Kluber trade for no reason.
Phil Maton was one of the surprises of 2020, bumping up his velocity and his strikeout rate, and the projection systems have become believers despite a career ERA of 4.78. The computers are more bearish on Nick Wittgren, with none believing (yet, at least) that he can maintain a BABIP in the .250s.
Bryan Shaw returns to the Jake in less triumphant fashion than he left it, struggling in two seasons with the Rockies and barely lasting a week with the Mariners in 2020. He was sharper this spring, and the team announced a few days ago that he made the Opening Day roster. This might be his last chance in the majors.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Giovanny Gallegos | 63 | 10.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | .301 | 76.0% | 3.48 | 3.53 | 1.1 |
Andrew Miller | 63 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | .304 | 73.4% | 4.02 | 4.24 | 0.3 |
Alex Reyes | 62 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.0 | .308 | 74.7% | 3.84 | 3.95 | 0.7 |
Tyler Webb | 59 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .297 | 72.7% | 4.19 | 4.41 | 0.2 |
Ryan Helsley | 58 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | .301 | 73.0% | 4.27 | 4.46 | 0.2 |
Jordan Hicks | 56 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 0.8 | .311 | 75.0% | 3.44 | 3.60 | 0.5 |
Génesis Cabrera | 50 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | .303 | 74.2% | 4.22 | 4.48 | 0.0 |
Kodi Whitley | 44 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | .304 | 72.2% | 4.40 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
John Gant | 35 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | .300 | 72.4% | 4.27 | 4.45 | 0.0 |
Daniel Ponce de Leon | 24 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | .297 | 72.7% | 4.48 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
Junior Fernández | 18 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.0 | .303 | 71.5% | 4.46 | 4.66 | 0.0 |
Seth Elledge | 15 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | .306 | 73.7% | 4.39 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
Johan Quezada | 12 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 1.2 | .307 | 70.4% | 5.10 | 5.31 | -0.0 |
Jake Woodford | 8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | .300 | 70.4% | 5.22 | 5.42 | -0.0 |
Johan Oviedo | 6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 1.3 | .306 | 70.6% | 5.18 | 5.38 | -0.0 |
Evan Kruczynski | 4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | .305 | 71.3% | 4.73 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
Thomas Parsons | 4 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | .304 | 71.0% | 4.69 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
Other RP | 3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 584 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | .303 | 73.4% | 4.09 | 4.27 | 2.9 |
The Luke Voit-Giovanny Gallegos trade was deemed a loser for the Cardinals by St. Louis fans after Voit’s initial power explosion with the Yankees, but Gallegos has spent two seasons doing his darndest to alter that particular storyline. Now, if Voit continues to hit like he did in 2020, it’ll be hard to say Gallegos is as valuable, but it’s not for lack of performance. Gallegos struck out nearly 13 batters per nine innings last season and, with a FIP of 2.88 in 2019-20, has more than earned his spot in the late innings.
Andrew Miller looked to arrest some of his decline last year, taking a little speed off his slider, exchanging velocity for movement. He was rewarded by the pitch being the most effective it’s been in years, holding batters to a .133 batting average that was somehow actually worse than his .105 xBA. The average launch angle for Miller’s slider dropped by nine degrees, putting it down in 2016-17 territory it occupied when he was at his best.
The Cardinals still haven’t given up on the idea of using Alex Reyes as a starter down the road, but the rotation’s loss in 2021 is the bullpen’s gain. Health and sometimes command have been problems for Reyes, but if he can successfully meld his high-90s fastball to his extremely missable 12-6 curve, he has star potential.
Oh yeah, and Jordan Hicks is back. He hasn’t hit 104 mph on the radar gun yet, but he hit the century mark this spring, an encouraging sign after Tommy John surgery. Hicks is a fun pitcher to watch, even though a pitcher who can throw a sinker 104 mph makes you to wonder if this is proof that we’re living in a computer simulation that has an occasional bug.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Archie Bradley | 67 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | .311 | 75.0% | 3.89 | 4.04 | 0.9 |
Héctor Neris | 65 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | .306 | 75.0% | 4.02 | 4.18 | 0.6 |
Brandon Kintzler | 62 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | .306 | 70.8% | 4.50 | 4.64 | 0.1 |
José Alvarado | 58 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 0.9 | .313 | 75.4% | 3.65 | 3.70 | 0.7 |
Connor Brogdon | 56 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | .305 | 74.5% | 4.24 | 4.34 | 0.2 |
David Hale | 53 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | .308 | 71.7% | 4.47 | 4.62 | 0.1 |
Vince Velasquez | 50 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | .311 | 73.7% | 4.39 | 4.42 | 0.1 |
Sam Coonrod | 42 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | .304 | 72.7% | 4.23 | 4.39 | 0.1 |
JoJo Romero | 40 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | .311 | 71.5% | 4.69 | 4.81 | 0.0 |
Ranger Suárez | 33 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .310 | 71.4% | 4.43 | 4.48 | 0.1 |
Spencer Howard | 25 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | .308 | 72.0% | 4.57 | 4.59 | 0.0 |
Chase Anderson | 18 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 1.9 | .295 | 71.6% | 5.09 | 5.37 | -0.0 |
Neftalí Feliz | 14 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | .303 | 70.9% | 5.36 | 5.45 | -0.0 |
Ramón Rosso | 10 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | .305 | 71.5% | 4.94 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
Kyle Dohy | 8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 1.3 | .307 | 74.2% | 4.74 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
Damon Jones | 5 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 1.1 | .309 | 72.9% | 4.51 | 4.73 | 0.0 |
Other RP | 2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Total | 608 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | .308 | 73.1% | 4.31 | 4.42 | 2.8 |
One of the common ties that seems to bind all losing 21st-century teams together is their fans’ belief that their favorite team’s bullpen is the worst ever, and that it’s the primary reason for the team’s losing ways. While in most cases that’s a bit of an exaggeration, it’s not that far off for the 2020 Phillies, who finished at the bottom of baseball with a 7.06 ERA.
Their FIP was “merely” an execrable 5.56, but the situational performances made the ‘pen a special sort of wrecking ball. In 205 high-leverage situations, hitters put up a .322/.404/.525 line with a .390 wOBA against Phillies relievers. To put that last figure to scale, Mookie Betts had a .390 wOBA for the 2020 season.
All told, Philadelphia’s bullpen combined for -7.35 wins in WPA, enough to make them historically significant.
Team | WPA |
---|---|
1999 Royals | -10.94 |
1990 Braves | -10.25 |
1979 Padres | -8.83 |
2007 Devil Rays | -8.61 |
1978 Mets | -8.55 |
2013 Astros | -8.50 |
2019 Nationals | -8.49 |
2010 Diamondbacks | -8.49 |
1993 Mets | -8.26 |
2015 Athletics | -8.14 |
2006 Royals | -7.73 |
2002 Rangers | -7.53 |
1991 Astros | -7.52 |
1991 Indians | -7.42 |
1986 Dodgers | -7.40 |
2020 Phillies | -7.35 |
2014 Rockies | -7.20 |
2006 Indians | -7.17 |
2002 Cubs | -7.17 |
2007 Orioles | -7.14 |
Remember, this is a counting stat, so the fact that the Phillies ranked so highly in a 60-game season is a depressingly impressive (dimpressive?) feat.
The good news, of course, is that they have found their way back to 12th in our positional rankings, so a better season looks to be in the works. Part of that is simply the magic of regression; it takes a special knack for futility to continue to pitch that poorly. The additions of Archie Bradley and Brandon Kintzler also help stop the bleeding and even if Héctor Neris’ new slider doesn’t work out, he’ll be hard-pressed to allow a .381 BABIP again. If Vince Velasquez isn’t traded, he could also be an asset for the bullpen; he has 131 career strikeouts in 106 first innings. The ‘pen simply returning to the realm of “okay” should give the Phillies a significant boost in the standings.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matt Barnes | 65 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.0 | .319 | 73.6% | 3.91 | 3.73 | 1.1 |
Adam Ottavino | 66 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.0 | .315 | 74.7% | 4.02 | 4.02 | 0.8 |
Matt Andriese | 67 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | .317 | 70.8% | 4.64 | 4.46 | 0.3 |
Darwinzon Hernandez | 58 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 1.1 | .306 | 73.9% | 4.26 | 4.47 | 0.1 |
Josh Taylor | 54 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | .313 | 72.9% | 4.22 | 4.25 | 0.3 |
Hirokazu Sawamura | 53 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.1 |
Ryan Brasier | 46 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .308 | 72.1% | 4.15 | 4.09 | 0.1 |
Austin Brice | 42 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | .311 | 70.5% | 4.70 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
Garrett Whitlock | 40 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .319 | 70.1% | 4.71 | 4.59 | 0.0 |
Phillips Valdez | 35 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | .324 | 69.9% | 5.00 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
Colten Brewer | 28 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | .316 | 70.3% | 4.74 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
Kevin McCarthy | 22 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | .317 | 70.0% | 4.67 | 4.61 | 0.0 |
Nick Pivetta | 16 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | .315 | 68.6% | 5.18 | 4.89 | -0.0 |
John Schreiber | 12 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | .316 | 70.9% | 4.72 | 4.60 | 0.0 |
Durbin Feltman | 8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 1.2 | .313 | 69.7% | 5.19 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
Marcus Walden | 6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | .316 | 69.9% | 4.76 | 4.60 | 0.0 |
Eduard Bazardo | 3 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | .313 | 70.9% | 4.68 | 4.67 | 0.0 |
Total | 621 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | .315 | 71.8% | 4.44 | 4.38 | 2.7 |
There’s not a lot of razzle-dazzle in the Red Sox bullpen, but it looks like it’ll at least be an adequate assemblage of arms should the team stay healthy.
Barnes, new addition Adam Ottavino, and, well, most of the bullpen have something in common: they’re all interesting pitchers who walk too many batters. The free passes have kept Barnes from advancing into the solid closer tier, and has been Ottavino’s weak spot, as well. Darwinzon Hernandez managed a 3.31 FIP in 2020 while walking eight batters a game, an inconsistency I wouldn’t have faith in him maintaining over the long haul. Boston will likely need many innings from their relievers; Martín Pérez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Garrett Richards all have thick injury records, and Eduardo Rodriguez is currently suffering arm fatigue after losing his 2020 to a nasty battle with COVID-19.
There’s no workhorse in the rotation, and with a lot of four-and-five inning specials likely in 2021, the bullpen will have to soak up innings. I’m not overly enthused by the chances the Red Sox will have enough healthy arms to make a serious run, even though our playoff odds are more optimistic.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jordan Romano | 60 | 10.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | .302 | 74.1% | 4.02 | 4.22 | 0.6 |
Rafael Dolis | 62 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | .308 | 74.9% | 3.82 | 3.99 | 0.8 |
Tyler Chatwood | 65 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 1.1 | .308 | 71.8% | 4.58 | 4.66 | 0.1 |
David Phelps | 64 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .309 | 74.8% | 3.98 | 4.05 | 0.5 |
Ryan Borucki | 58 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | .308 | 71.8% | 4.44 | 4.49 | 0.2 |
Ross Stripling | 56 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 1.5 | .313 | 72.9% | 4.34 | 4.32 | 0.2 |
Julian Merryweather | 53 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | .311 | 71.8% | 4.48 | 4.49 | 0.1 |
Tim Mayza | 42 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .308 | 74.8% | 3.89 | 4.14 | 0.2 |
Anthony Kay | 40 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | .306 | 71.2% | 4.81 | 4.91 | -0.0 |
Trent Thornton | 28 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | .310 | 70.9% | 4.66 | 4.59 | 0.0 |
A.J. Cole | 24 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | .309 | 72.1% | 4.81 | 4.85 | 0.0 |
Ty Tice | 20 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.2 | .307 | 72.6% | 4.54 | 4.73 | 0.0 |
Thomas Hatch | 15 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | .308 | 70.7% | 4.83 | 4.85 | 0.0 |
Anthony Castro | 14 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 1.3 | .308 | 70.1% | 5.14 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
Travis Bergen | 12 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.5 | .306 | 73.6% | 4.87 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
Patrick Murphy | 10 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .309 | 70.8% | 4.48 | 4.49 | 0.0 |
Kirby Snead | 7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.0 | .308 | 71.9% | 4.36 | 4.47 | 0.0 |
Joel Payamps | 3 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 | .307 | 71.9% | 4.54 | 4.65 | 0.0 |
Total | 626 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | .308 | 72.8% | 4.35 | 4.44 | 2.7 |
The Blue Jays were dealt a blow when Kirby Yates‘ forearm strain led to Tommy John surgery, ending his 2021 before it officially began. Toronto, a serious Wild Card contender, took a one-year gamble on Yates, allowing him to rebuild his value after a 2020 he mostly missed due to an unrelated procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow. There was always some risk, but the Jays had hoped to at least get something out of Yates in 2021. It’s also the second straight season Toronto has been down a closer early after losing Ken Giles four innings into 2020.
Jordan Romano is the likely beneficiary of saves, as he was widely seen as the presumptive heir to the closer job. 2020 was a huge breakout for Romano, and even if the 1.23 ERA is misleading, his 3.12 FIP put him in the elite tier of relievers. Romano’s had the booming fastball before, but what was different in 2020 was his improved command, enabling him to cross batters up with the follow-up sliders. Going from a contact rate of 74% to 58% is a dramatic improvement, and hitter successes against his out-of-zone pitches — mostly the slider — dropped almost in half.
Tyler Chatwood is an interesting addition for the bullpen as well. A huge bump in his swinging-strike rate led to a large strikeout improvement in his five starts before a forearm strain sent him to the Injured List. As long as we don’t see a repeat of 2018’s control issues, Chatwood could play a big role in the late innings. Rafael Dolis figures in that mix as well after coming back from Japan with a forkball in his repertoire, seven years after his last major league appearance.
Behind these three pitchers are several solid-but-not-spectacular arms to eat up middle innings: Ross Stripling, David Phelps, Julian Merryweather, and Tim Mayza.
Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raisel Iglesias | 64 | 10.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .301 | 76.4% | 3.55 | 3.73 | 1.2 |
Mike Mayers | 63 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | .307 | 73.4% | 4.16 | 4.19 | 0.7 |
Felix Peña | 58 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | .307 | 73.4% | 4.24 | 4.34 | 0.4 |
Alex Claudio | 60 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | .307 | 71.3% | 4.10 | 4.30 | 0.3 |
Junior Guerra | 56 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | .300 | 72.6% | 4.63 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
Steve Cishek | 48 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | .299 | 73.4% | 4.30 | 4.65 | 0.0 |
Tony Watson | 44 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | .302 | 71.1% | 4.68 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
Aaron Slegers | 36 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | .301 | 69.6% | 4.94 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
James Hoyt | 34 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | .307 | 74.2% | 3.96 | 4.15 | 0.1 |
Ty Buttrey | 30 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .308 | 74.2% | 3.87 | 4.03 | 0.1 |
Chris Rodriguez | 26 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .312 | 69.8% | 4.54 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
Noé Ramirez | 20 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | .301 | 73.3% | 4.58 | 4.81 | 0.0 |
Jaime Barria | 18 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 1.9 | .300 | 70.6% | 5.05 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
Patrick Sandoval | 14 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | .304 | 73.4% | 4.17 | 4.31 | 0.0 |
AJ Ramos | 10 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 1.7 | .313 | 70.0% | 5.77 | 5.68 | -0.0 |
Kyle Keller | 4 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .300 | 73.4% | 4.20 | 4.39 | 0.0 |
José Quijada | 4 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.3 | .301 | 73.7% | 4.46 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
Luke Bard | 3 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 | .300 | 72.5% | 4.79 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
Total | 585 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | .304 | 72.8% | 4.30 | 4.47 | 2.6 |
The Angels made a significant upgrade at closer this winter, picking up Raisel Iglesias from Cincy for Noé Ramirez and light-hitting speedster Leonardo Rivas. After some issues with dingers the last couple of seasons, Iglesias was able to induce more grounders, bumping his GB% back to 42% from his career-low 30% in 2019. That dearth of grounders wouldn’t be as dangerous now as it was in the homer-friendly Great American Ballpark, but keeping the ball in the park is still good! Iglesias also trimmed a walk per nine innings, and while the projections are skeptical about whether he can sustain that improvement, it’s a nice mid-career boost. Ramirez actually agreed to return to LA after being cut lose by Cincy earlier this week, and if there’s one thing better than making a good trade, it’s making a good trade and keeping both sides of the transaction!
For a while, Ty Buttrey looked like he’d eventually take over the closer role thanks to his hard, heavy fastball and solid control, but he took a huge step backward in 2020. His strikeout rate collapsed by 40%, and this wasn’t an illusion: contact numbers against Buttrey soared, supporting the drop in whiffs. Buttrey was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake, but should come back fairly quickly if he rights the ship.
Despite the myriad resources teams throw at working with players, sometimes improvement comes from the oddest of sources. In this case, Mike Mayers picked up a cutter based on seeing a Mariano Rivera baseball marked with lines to show how he gripped it. The light bulb went on over Mayers’ head, he tried out the pitch, and batters hit .156 against it in 2020.
The consistently average Felix Peña will take the middle innings, along with Junior Guerra. The back of the bullpen features slow ball/slower ball Alex Claudio, the recently signed Steve Cishek and Tony Watson, and Chris Rodriguez, who was told that he officially made the roster yesterday. My colleague Eric Longenhagen is intrigued by Rodriguez’s “very nasty” stuff. Rodriguez is still very raw, but the Angels are keen to get him going after he first lost a season with a spinal fracture, then lost a second one due to the pandemic. By promoting Cishek to a major league deal and bringing in Watson, the Angels improved their depth. That leaves one spot for Jaime Barria, Patrick Sandoval, Aaron Slegers, and James Hoyt by my accounting, the last pitcher having just been acquired from the Marlins. The Angels were given a fourth option year for Barria, so they do have the ability to send him down to Triple-A to start full-time. That’s probably the best way to utilize Patrick Sandoval as well. If history repeats itself, the Angels will have plenty of use for the injury reinforcements.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Will take the under on St. Louis.