2022 Home Run Derby Preview: Alonso Goes for the Three-Pete

Pete Alonso
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

What’s 4,700 or so feet of elevation between friends? Where last year’s Home Run Derby was held in the majors’ most homer-conducive venue, mile-high Coors Field, this year’s event will be held in Dodger Stadium, which is an estimated 522 feet above sea level. The difference is hardly trivial when it comes to the hard-hit fly balls that are the stuff of Home Run Derbies; based on league-wide data from 2021 and ’22, those hit with exit velocities of 95 mph or higher traveled an average of 31 fewer feet at Dodger Stadium (361 feet) than at Coors Field (392 feet).

The difference may not matter to two-time defending champion Pete Alonso, who won at Progressive Field with its 653-foot elevation in 2019, as well as last year at Coors. In beating out upstart Trey Mancini last summer, Alonso became the fourth two-time winner in Derby history, joining Ken Griffey Jr. (1994, ’98–99), Prince Fielder (2009, ’12) and Yoenis Céspedes (2013–14). This year, he has a chance not only to tie Griffey but also to become the first player to win three in a row. Three-Peat, Three-Pete — we’ll never hear the end of it if he wins the event, which airs at 8 pm ET on ESPN on Monday night.

Given his experience with the format, Alonso has to be considered the favorite from among the eight participants. Of the four previous champions who are still active, Bryce Harper (2018 winner) is on the injured list, Giancarlo Stanton (2016) and Aaron Judge (2017) both declined the opportunity to participate, and Robinson Canó (2011) is far removed from his power-hitting days. Only two active runners-up, Kyle Schwarber (2018) and Albert Pujols (2003) are here; Mancini (2021), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2019), Miguel Sanó (2017), Joc Pederson (2015), and Nelson Cruz (2009) are not. Neither are Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, or Fernando Tatis Jr., for various reasons. While it would be great to have any of the aforementioned players participating, the contest is a physically demanding one, and many of those stars are already banged up if not out entirely. Still, even with just one contestant returning from last year’s field — Juan Soto, who lost to Alonso in the semifinal round — it’s a compelling group of sluggers.

I’ll get to the participants shortly, but first, the format, which is along the lines of what has been used for the event since 2015, a set of changes that has done wonders for the watchability of this spectacle. The competition will be an eight-man, single elimination bracket that uses timed rounds of three minutes apiece for the first two rounds and two minutes for the final round. Each competitor gets an additional 30-second bonus, plus potentially a second 30-second bonus if he hits a home run with a projected distance of at least 440 feet (this was increased to 475 feet for Coors). Each player is allowed to call one 45-second timeout for use during regulation time; it can’t be used during bonus time. The lower-seeded player in each round goes first, and the round will end in the equivalent of a walk-off if the higher seed surpasses his total. If two contestants are tied after the bonus time, they each get a 60-second round with no bonus time or timeouts, and if they’re still tied after that, they each get rounds of three swings apiece until a winner is decided. The winner of the Derby will take home $1 million of the $2.5 million total pot.

The lower altitude isn’t the only factor that could reduce home run totals in this year’s contest. On a per-game basis, home run rates are down to their lowest levels since 2015; this year’s 1.08 homers per team per game is down 4.6% from last year and 22.9% from 2019, the year that homers peaked. A deader baseball with a higher coefficient of drag, and the league-wide use of humidors, which normalize the bounciness of the ball based upon its water content, are the apparent culprits. As a result, fly ball distances have decreased, both on a league-wide basis and at Dodger Stadium, the latter to an even greater degree. Here’s a comparison of all fly balls hit at 95 mph or higher:

Hard-hit fly balls around the majors are averaging 365 feet, down from 367 last year and a peak of 375 from 2019. At Dodger Stadium, they’re averaging 359 feet, down from 362 last year and a high of 373 feet in 2019.

As far as the dimensions go, Dodger Stadium is symmetrical, measuring 330 feet down the foul lines, 375 feet to true left-center and right-center, and 395 feet to dead center field. The outfield fences are eight feet high from bullpen to bullpen, then drop to 55 inches high in the corners, from the bullpens to the foul poles. Despite its symmetry, the park has recently favored righties when it comes to home runs, with a 107 park factor compared to 102 for lefties. Based on data since the start of the 2021 season, righties have a 14.7% rate of home runs per fly ball, lefties a rate of 13.1%.

Here’s the official bracket:

And here’s a look at the field with some relevant stats:

2022 Home Run Derby Field
Seed Player PA HR HR/PA HR/Con HR/FB EVF Avg HR Barrel% 440
1 Kyle Schwarber* 391 29 7.4% 13.4% 25.4% 99.1 413 21.7% 18
2 Pete Alonso 395 24 6.1% 8.9% 20.5% 94.3 401 13.7% 19
3 Corey Seager* 389 22 5.7% 7.6% 19.3% 94.5 403 11.5% 8
4 Juan Soto* 393 20 5.1% 7.8% 20.8% 96.1 410 12.9% 9
5 José Ramírez# 375 19 5.1% 6.4% 11.9% 88.6 386 6.4% 2
6 Julio Rodríguez 380 16 4.2% 6.5% 18.8% 96.0 400 14.3% 2
7 Ronald Acuña Jr. 270 8 3.0% 4.8% 13.6% 97.8 437 14.5% 20
8 Albert Pujols 173 6 3.5% 4.9% 12.5% 93.0 403 8.2% 8
All statistics through July 17. EVF (exit velocity on fly balls), Avg HR (average home-run distance) and 440 (total of home runs projected for at least 440 feet) via Baseball Savant. * = Bats left-handed. # = Switch hitter.

The method of seeding is unsophisticated, as the players were ranked based upon home run totals when the field was finalized last week. By that measure, one had to go all the way down to the 30-way tie (!) at 180th to include all eight participants. Home run totals are hardly the only measure of a slugger’s capability, particularly in this context, and while it’s fair to question the applicability of any of the above metrics I’ve gathered when it comes to non-game situations, it’s worth appreciating the perspective they provide on this group. I’ve gone beyond the raw totals to show how often each contestant homers per plate appearance, per batted ball [HR/ (AB – SO + SF)], and per fly ball, with their average exit velocities on flies, their average projected home run distance, and their barrel rate, which according to a 2019 study by Devan Fink correlates best with recent Derby success. I’ve also included each player’s Statcast-era total number of homers projected to travel least 440 feet, the threshold that 2015–19 Derbies used for the distance bonus.

And now, here’s a look at the first-round matchups:

Schwarber (1) vs. Pujols (8)

This has the makings of a mismatch, pitting the NL home run leader and former Derby runner-up against a 42-year-old future Hall of Famer who’s here in an emeritus role. Schwarber leads the field in all three of the traditional rate stats above (homers per whatever) by a substantial margin. He also has the majors’ highest average exit velocity on fly balls and its second-highest barrel rate behind only Judge. He’s third among the field in career long-distance shots, and while he barely trails Acuña and Alonso in terms of the count, he has over 900 plate appearances more than either of them. Schwarber has also gone 440 feet or more once for every 164 PA; Alonso has done so once for every 103 PA, and Acuña once for every 101 PA. The only thing that might be working against Schwarber in this context is that he’s a lefty. Still, he seems well-positioned to challenge Alonso and get the victory that eluded him in 2018.

Pujols isn’t exactly a stranger to this competition, having participated in 2003, ’07, ’09, and ’15. He was the runner-up to Garret Anderson in ’03, back when he was 23 years old and in his third major league season. In ’15, his only other time in the current format, he was the No. 1 seed, beating Kris Bryant in the quarterfinals before bowing to Pederson in the semifinals. He’s still capable of giving the ball a ride, having homered twice in the past week, but there’s nothing about the numbers that suggests he’s a real threat to advance.

Alonso (2) vs Acuña (7)

Folks, this is the first-round matchup to watch, and in fact, it’s a rematch of a 2019 semifinals match. Alonso, who had defeated Carlos Santana in the first round, faced off with Acuña, who had beaten Josh Bell. The Met got the upper hand, winning 20–19.

As I noted last year, the 6-foot-3, 245-pound Alonso seems built for this competition, stepping into the box looking loose and operating at maximum efficiency in an event where efficiency is underappreciated. Some credit for that is almost certainly owed to Mets bench coach Dave Jauss, his pitcher, who consistently puts the ball in his wheelhouse. Alonso always appears to understand exactly what he needs to do to win, whereas others step into the box thinking, “I’ll try Plan A, and if that doesn’t work, I’ll try Plan B…” by which point it’s too late, at least in this unforgiving draw. In both the semifinals and finals last year, Alonso needed far less than the allotted time to win.

Acuña is the seventh seed not due to a lack of talent but because of injuries; he returned from last year’s season-ending torn ACL on April 28 and has missed time this year due to a right quad strain and a bruised left foot. His home run rate stats are at or near the bottom of the field, but he’s got a 144-point gap between his .413 SLG and .557 xSLG and the field’s largest gap between his actual homers (eight) and Statcast expected homers (11.2). His exit velocity on fly balls and barrel rate are both second in the field only to Schwarber, and his average home run distance is tops in the majors; he’s gone 440 or longer with a greater career frequency than anyone else here, and four of his eight homers this year have been at least that long. When he lost to Alonso in 2019, it was because he was swinging at anything instead of sticking to a tight zone; a more disciplined approach (and/or better pitching) might be the ticket to an upset.

Seager (3) vs. Rodríguez (6)

Seager is back in the Derby for the first time since his 2016 rookie season, when he set a still-standing personal best of 26 homers, and back at Dodger Stadium for the first time since signing a 10-year, $325 million free-agent deal just before the lockout. While his 22 homers are well ahead of his usual pace and tie him for ninth in the majors, 16 of those have come at Globe Life Field, which favors lefties. By Statcast’s Expected Home Runs measures, his +3.2 homers above expectations is the highest in this field. That said, he had substantially higher home run rates in Los Angeles (6.5% versus 4.4% in terms of HR/Con), so he shouldn’t be taken lightly. He may well be the crowd favorite, even with his departure from the Dodger fold; after all, he was the NLCS and World Series MVP in 2020.

Rodríguez is the youngest player (21 years old) and the only rookie in this year’s field, but that shouldn’t count him out; Alonso won as a rookie in 2019, and Wally Joyner was co-champion in 1986. After a rough April (zero homers, 61 wRC+), Rodríguez has been very impressive, hitting .293/.351/.535 (155 wRC+) with 16 homers in 299 PA and leading all rookies with 2.9 WAR. His Statcast numbers since May 1 — a 16.3% barrel rate and 96.7 mph average exit velocity on fly balls — would both rank third among the field here and point to his growing comfort level, and his two homers of at least 440 feet tie him with Soto for second in the field. If Acuña is my top sleeper pick as a contestant who could win despite a low seeding, Rodriguez is a close second.

Soto (4) vs. Ramírez (5)

Soto is the talk of baseball these days based upon Ken Rosenthal’s report that he turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract offer, and that the Nationals will look to trade him. Don’t expect that to distract him, though; this is the guy who gets in pitchers’ heads after all. Soto, last year’s No. 8 seed, beat Ohtani in the first round via a swing-off, setting a Derby record with a 520-foot blast along the way.

Soto’s numbers above don’t jump off the page, but it’s worth noting that his exit velo on fly balls is third in the field. What’s really interesting is that he’s by far the least pull-happy of the bunch, with a 33.5% pull rate, over seven points lower than any other player here. As he told reporters last week, “I’m going to try to hit the longest oppo homer of this Derby… Everybody can pull the ball. Let’s see how far you hit the ball oppo.” He already owns this year’s longest opposite-field homer of any of the participants, at 414 feet, though that was hit at Coors Field on May 3; Schwarber had a 403-foot oppo shot at Petco Park on June 26.

Ramírez has the least impressive Statcast numbers of the field; his average home run distance is 14 feet shorter than anyone else’s. The real question is whether he will bat right-handed or left-handed for the contest. As of Saturday, he hadn’t finalized his decision, telling MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, “I’ll see more how I feel when I get to the ballpark there in L.A. But for now, it’ll be from the right side.”

What do the numbers say?

José Ramírez Handedness Splits
Split PA HR HR/PA HR/Con HR/FB EVF Avg HR Barrel%
LHH 2022 278 16 5.8% 7.3% 13.6% 88.6 385 5.5%
RHH 2022 97 3 3.1% 3.9% 7.3% 88.7 393 9.2%
LHH 2020-22 890 50 5.6% 7.6% 15.7% 90.9 386 7.5%
RHH 2020-22 375 22 5.9% 7.7% 15.5% 94.6 405 14.1%

Ramírez’s home run-based rate stats this year favor the left side, but his Statcast numbers tilt toward the right; he’s barreling the ball more frequently, and his average home run distance is longer. That advantage is even more pronounced if we bring in his 2020 and ’21 stats, even as his home run-based rate stats even out. He hits the ball much harder from the right side, though it would still be a surprise if he advances here.

If you’ve read this far, you probably want some predictions, and while I’m not going to claim to be an expert in prognostication, my track record since joining the FanGraphs staff includes the Harper and Alonso wins — the latter over Guerrero in the finals, even (not that I was going too far out on a limb either time). That said, last year I had Joey Gallo over Ohtani in the finals, and neither made it out of the first round. Having seen what he can do in this format, I have a very hard time picking against Alonso, and so I’ll go with him over Rodríguez in the finals here*, while adding that whoever wins that Alonso-Acuña first-round matchup is at least going to the finals. The recent Home Run Derbies have set a high bar for excitement and drama, and whatever the outcome, here’s hoping this year’s one can provide similar thrills.

*Whoops, as a reader pointed out, that’s impossible, and so in penance I’ll forfeit the right to pick a runner-up.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

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David Klein
1 year ago

Maybe I’m in the minority but I enjoy the derby way more than the all-star game and think Pete will three-peat tonight.