2023 Top 100 Prospects Chat

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from blustery Tempe, AZ. Let’s get right to it, there’s still plenty to do.

12:02
Max: Where does Jordan Walker play on the field at the big league level and could he make the Opening Day squad?

12:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Right field and eventually first base. Probably doesn’t make the team out of camp, they have too many other options, Walker isn’t currently on the 40-man, and he’s relatively new to the outfield.

12:03
Max: What is Kumar Rocker at this point?

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: For me, a pretty good reliever. He was something like 60th on the 2022 draft ranking. 2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

12:04
JP: All right — let’s address the elephant in the room. Pfaadt over GRod making waves. Obviously the gap is pretty thin between both given their placement. But is this more because of GRod concerns or Pfaadt is just that good?

12:05
Oaktown Blues: Are you out on Luis Medina at this point?

12:05
Tess Taruskin: Medina’s command has been a concern for a while and got worse in ’22 (22 Ks in 20 innings at Double-A).

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry, my page crashed….

12:06
AZFan: How did Gabriel Moreno fall out of the top 100 entirely?

12:06
Tess Taruskin: Easy: he graduated.

12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: He graduated

12:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Grayson v Pfaadt: More about liking Pfaadt a lot, though has something to do with the direction the arrow is pointing for both. Pfaadt picked up spin across the board, Grayson lost two ticks of velo and 200rpm across the board, Pfaadt’s delivery and athleticism more typical for a starter than Grayson.

12:07
Jackson: How likely do you think it is that either Ethan Salas or Felnin Celesten make the top 100 in the next two years?

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Salas’ BPs in AZ have been crazy enough that we talked about it already this year

12:08
Nick: Rickey Tiedemann – Curious on why you have his ETA set at 2026? Buzz is that he has a chance to appear as soon as this year. Thanks!

12:08
Tess Taruskin: The ETAs correspond to when guys need to be added to the 40-man for Rule 5 protection, rather than expected MLB debut.

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: That should have been manually pushed at least a year, though

12:09
Sean: Ely de la Cruz has such a tantalizing combination of speed and power, and looks like a future star.  From a player development perspective, does it make sense for the Reds to give him a chance to play at the big league level this year given that they are unlikely to contend?

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe at the very end. His swing decisions and defense are still pretty spotty.

12:13
Jason: You all seem to be the lowest on Evan Carter. Do you really think there is no chance for him to add more power? Reports are his exit velocity is already above average, so he may need to just find more loft (which admittedly may be difficult with his current swing)

12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t say there’s no chance but he doesn’t have the look of a guy who adds it, not athletically anyway. There was not universal support from scouting/executive sources to include him, in fact it was pretty split, lots of others think he’s a low-impact guy.

12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: And his exits velos are not above avg. His max exit on the year was average, everything else (his avg, hard hit rate, etc.) were all below

12:14
Matt: What factors led to projecting Logan O’Hoppe with 40 game power?

12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: His amount of raw power and the typical reduction catchers get from their relative lack of playing time and frequency of injury. Reading and Madison probably helped him hit that many homers, too.

12:15
Larger Bases: There are a number of players, like Jose Salas, that have fallen off the list from last year. Has your opinion on guys like Salas changed meaningfully or has he slipped from a 50 FV to a 45+ FV?

12:15
Thomas: Yours is the only list I’ve seen with Addison Barger ranked so high, let alone the middle of the list. What are you seeing that others don’t?

12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Salas is just a 45 now, Josh Rojas type. Came away from AFL thinking he wasn’t a lock SS.

12:15
Tess Taruskin: (Re: Barger) Lefty bat-speed and defensive utility with a strong arm. There’s huge upside there, and the fact that he brought it to a level where he wasn’t the oldest on the field.

12:15
bk: Is it pronounced Barger, or Barger?

12:16
Tess Taruskin: Barger, like how he barged onto the list this year.

12:16
Brennen Davis’ Mom: How close was Brennen Davis to making the list despite the awful 2022?

12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Close, the injuries and hit tool risk were just too substantial but we still love the person and power.

12:18
Sky: When do you see Perez and Painter debuting in MLB? More broadly, which pitchers do you think will provide their teams the most production in 2023?

12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: I think Painter might kick down the door straight outta camp but both only threw like 70 innings last year so that might cap what they do in 2023.

12:21
Kate: Has there been any change in the way you are evaluating hit tools?  Felt like there were a lot of major downward revisions on hit tools (including a lot of guys who previously had 55 or above).

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Mostly it’s been the idea that hitting big league stuff is so hard that guys tend to get worse as they climb the ladder. The guys who are in the big leagues for a long time almost always are because they can really hit, as you dive into the swing and miss data lots of minor leaguers who we consider good prospects are already swinging and missing more than career big leaguers.

12:21
Jeremy: Buest guess for top MLB prospect in 2024?

12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Wood then Bleis

12:23
Pug: No Gavin Cross? too many K’s? too old for the level? not enough PA’s to change initial report? Seems strange to leave off a guy just demolishing A ball.

12:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Just think he’s more a bankable platoon corner guy than he is a true everyday CF or anything like that. Still like him, had him in the middle of round 1 and thought he was a fine draft pick, we just don’t tend to 50 corner bats until they’re basically ready. He should have destroyed A-ball, the ACC is arguably better.

12:25
Kate: The 35 hit tool project for Carson Williams is pretty scary.  Obviously he still has a path to being a useful player given his other skills, but what are the odds of a guy like this actually making some improvements to get to like a 45 hit tool?  With guys who struggle this much with contact, is there kind of a ceiling of how far we can actually expect them to improve?

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: I think it depends, in Williams’ case were talking about a guy who has only focused on hitting for a little while so there’s greater variance there. I also think it’s fine if he has a 3 bat and gets to all that power. That’s basically Willy Adames.

12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: If i may, public tool grades tend to be too clustered in the 45-55 range and I’m hyper aware of that as I’m grading.

12:29
bob: why did you leave zack gelof off the list and what does he have to do to get on it

12:29
Tess Taruskin: Too much in-zone swing and miss. If he can tamp that down, and tap into consistent in-game power, he’ll get a bump.

12:30
Eh?: Can you name one prospect that has been called underrated so many times, he’s actually overrated now? And vice versa?

12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. I’m entirely off social media and comment sections now so that part of the zeitgeist eludes me such that it’s tough to answer. Based on chat, I’d say Evan Carter is super hyped online. Obviously I like him (he’s on there) just not as a 60 or anything, that’s his right tail outcome. Vice versa? Any of the dudes we stayed on just to give them more time to breath as prospects, like Yorke, Leiter, Henry Davis, those guys who had tough years but who we’re trying not to overreact to.

12:32
Angelus Novus: What ‘type’ of player do you feel that you have ‘missed’ on in past top 100 lists. What have you done to shine away these blindspots?

12:32
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve tended to be light on guys who haven’t played a ton in the minors and just rocket straight to MLB. Juan Soto, Michael Harris, guys like that. The way I’m drawing info often misses those guys and monitoring promotion pace and working the phone on guys who I flag is the only way to remedy that.

12:32
Missed 2020: How much of an effect is the missed 2020 season having at this point? How long to you anticipate it affecting prospects?

12:32
Tess Taruskin: There’s a ton of impact across the board, especially for guys who missed time with injuries either right before or right after. There’s also guys who signed later than they would’ve otherwise (Edgar Quero is an example), whose developmental process has an atypical shape as a result.

12:33
Eh?: If Gabriel Moreno were still eligible, around where would he rank on this year’s list?

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: Third

12:33
Eric A Longenhagen: folks can read his full report here: THE BOARD | Prospects | FanGraphs Baseball

12:34
Jack: Mason Miller has some scary injury flags – is his placement on the list simply due to the quality of his stuff IF he stays healthy?

12:34
Tess Taruskin: Yes. The injuries are bad-scary, but the stuff is good-scary.

12:35
Jeff: Several prospect rankings have mentioned that the Cubs have a longer-than-usual list of players in the top 150 or so who could move up to the top 100 quickly with the right kind of year. Do you see a name or two that fits that description?

12:35
Eric A Longenhagen: Horton, that guy might just be scratching the surface.

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I’m a little scared of the hit tool because of what has happened to Tork and Kelenic, who have similarly stiff front sides during their swings. That said, Marcelo’s hitting hands are so freaking sweet and he’s performed to expectation so far, so he’s still stuffed on here. I just didn’t 6 him or Lawlar like I did Merrill due to confidence in the hit tool

12:38
Walla Walla Ron Washington: The Marcelo Mayer write-up seems very lukewarm for his high ranking, compared to some of the other names around him. Were you tempted to push him lower?

12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: ^

12:40
Eric: No Gabriel Moreno…is that an oversight or are you just WAY out on him?

12:40
Eric A Longenhagen: I know some publications don’t use actual rookie eligibility to gate their lists but they really should, especially when it now has real-world consequences because of the CBA’s rookie incentives.

12:42
Guest: Where would Brayan Bello have slotted in on the list if he hadn’t just exhausted his rookie eligibility?  55 FV?

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, or right behind Senga as the first 50 or so

12:42
Mcgraw45: Do prospect evaluators mostly frame prospects by their best outcomes? For example, the Samuel Zavala write up says you think “he’ll be an every day corner guy in a few years.”  This seems like a really good outcome for a prospect, and isn’t it far likelier that he peters out in a few years? Is it just that writing “this prospect is more likely to be a fifth outfielder, but might be an every day regular someday” is less fun? Or is everyday regular more likely?

12:42
Tess Taruskin: Zavala is super young, and has demonstrated specific ways in which his profile is super mature for his age (namely his approach). Since he’s not obviously hitting the same types of stumbling blocks other guys his age hit, we’re more confident in his ability to avoid petering out. That said, that long runway also allows for plenty of currently unforeseen circumstances to alter his trajectory, but there’s no need at this point to assume that will happen, and there are compelling reasons to think that it wont.

12:42
Mike: Is Emmanuel Rodriguez’s omission from the list primarily related to health (his knee), contact problems (26% k-rate at low-A), or something else?

12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: the combo

12:43
Naked Mole Gaetti: How close were the KC’s Gavin Cross & Maikel Garcia to the list? You see Cross as ending up in a corner and maybe aren’t sold on his bat as league-average for a RF’er, I assume?

12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: Garcia was on in the middle of last year but his lack of physicality relative to the other 50 fv shortstops caused me to reposition him while we worked on the list. Still love him, hope he gets stronger. Prob a sweet util guy tho.

12:44
Matthew: How much consideration for a 50 FV grade did the Yankees fringe top 100 players get? (I’m thinking mostly of Everson Pereira, Austin Wells, and Spencer Jones, but if there are others you thought about I wold be interested in those too)

12:44
Eric A Longenhagen: Pereira I cut after Tess wrote him up (sorry Tess) because I’m just not confident that swing plays. Wells’ arm makes him tough to project as a catcher and his swing has Bleday traits that kept me off him to this degree. Spenny I wanna see hit pro pitching. That system is loaded, Sweeney almost made it too.

12:46
Squirrels: I was very surprised to see James Wood at number 3. I am excited as a Nationals fan, but why do you rank him so much higher than other rankings I have seen?

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Again, tough to speak for others, I have more confidence in his hit tool than everyone but Merrill in that tier. Elly and Chourio both feel like riskier prospects with comparable ceilings to Wood. Beavis and Butthead – Wood – YouTube

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Also, the Petrified Forest is legit, people should check that out.

12:46
tumtum: Junior Caminero was deemed to have excellent future power tools. How high can he climb in the rankings next year? Top 50? Top 20?

12:46
Eric A Longenhagen: Make better swing decisions than he did down under this winter.

12:47
keefths: You seem super high on Miguel Bleis. What makes him different from Josue de Paula or Spencer Jones in terms of floor and upside ?

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Defensive projection when comp’d to De Paula, confidence in the bat-to-ball compared to Spenny.

12:47
MrMet: Eric, you rock! Who might be an apt historical comp for Eury Perez? Seems like almost a unique tools package and body combo. What are the chances he pitches meaningful innings in MLB this year?

12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: Righty CC

12:48
Jax: How much of a gap is there between Elly De La Cruz and Oneil Cruz?

12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: Three inches and a smile

12:51
Kate: You’ve talked about how you’ve bumped up guys like Joey Ortiz who are no doubt SS given the new shift limitations.  Wondering about the inverse of this.  Guys who were previously pegged as 2B but are kind of iffy in terms of athleticism (I’m thinking a guy like Jace Jung for example).  What’s your thinking around guys like this now?  Do you think teams will go back to employing 2B who are more athletic or will some of these guys stick despite the defensive limitations?  Maybe depends on what other positions they could conceivably play?

12:51
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a great question, maybe “thee” question (as in Megan Thee Question) since pull-heavy hitters can now pull away with abandon. I still want to stay on the Spencer Steers of the world because they can hit but I do think defensive range will become more important again. It probably means 50’ing Kolten Wong types

12:52
Walla Walla Ron Washington: What’s the biggest difference between Henderson and Carroll that puts H over C for you? Present power?

12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: Present D fit.

12:53
Stu: Would you trade Painter, PCA, and Lawlar for 3 years of a $21 Acuna in a $260 cap NL only dynasty league?

12:53
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m a fantasy idiot but probably not. It has more to do with how Acuna is trending than anything.

12:54
Felipe: Is there something to be learned by the big falls for Luciano and Noelvi after their previously quick rises?  Is it prospect fatigue, not developing as once dreamed as they grew up, or something more specific to their profiles?

12:54
Tess Taruskin: For Noelvi, we’re learning the limitations of his durability over the course of a long season, combined with overall weaker contact than would be ideal. For Luciano, the question is whether his back issues are going to continue to persist, and at this point it seems like they might nag him for a while.

12:55
Broseph: Anthony Gutierrez (TEX) and Gabriel Gonzalez (SEA) both get a lot of love in fantasy circles..how close are they to a real life list like this?

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m more on Guti than Gonzalez having watched both on the complex. Gonzalez is a bowling ball with 3 plate discipline, that guy scares me. Gutierrez more traditional RF body projection but also very aggressive. Might have the bat to ball to support the profile, though. Both those guys chased at like a 40% clip in 2022.

12:55
Walton Dilcox: Por quuuuueeeeeee no Harry Ford?

12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: Still a work in progress defensively, in a major way.

12:56
Sam: More of a question about reading your Top 100 – is it safe to assume that players with the same FV could somewhat easily be re-sorted in your list? Put another way – is James Wood (No. 3, FV 60) closer to Corbin Carroll (No. 2, FV 65) or Pete Crow-Armstrong (No. 14, FV 60)?

12:56
Eric A Longenhagen: Yep

12:56
Jon: How close was Casey Schmitt to making the list? It looks like he could be taking over 3B in SF relatively soon.

12:56
Tess Taruskin: Casey Schmitt’s defense is so much fun to watch, but his bat isn’t there to the same degree.

12:57
Jack: Hi- Was wondering the reasoning for Nick Gonzales’s hit tool dropping from 60-35 since his draft day. I understand he has K% issues, however he did have a 127wrC+ at AA while playing 2B. Thought 35 seemed light, and was hoping for more insight/is this fixable?

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: His swing is in the Hiura/Kieboom mold, hand paths work almost exactly alike. Jeter Downs, too. Think big league arms are going to execute enough to keep him from hitting.

12:57
Alan: It was mentioned that one scout you talked to would still like to see Masyn Winn on the mound. Is there any chance that still happens, or is he strictly a SS now?

12:57
Tess Taruskin: Strictly being developed as an infielder, but with the new position player pitching rules, the scout i talked to mentioned he might be a candidate as their go-to position player pitcher.

12:57
Eric A Longenhagen: and a director i spoke with just wants to see it, for entertainment

12:58
Oscar: Where would Murakami and Roki Sasaki fall on this list?

12:58
Eric A Longenhagen: 3rd and close to 30

12:58
Truce: Is it hard to rank guys like Kevin Alcantara when they play half their games in a pitchers park?

12:58
Tess Taruskin: Yes

12:59
The guy who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

12:59
Tess Taruskin: Still in breakfast mode here in California, so: Coffee. Lots of coffee.

12:59
Farhandrew Zaidman: Am I crazy for not seeing it with Pages? Sure, when he looked like he’d stick in CF, but a corner only guy with soooo much swing and miss? Pass.

12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: You are not crazy, I may have overranked him on the Dodgers list, plenty of feedback during 100 process was in line with yours. He just gets to all that power, the lift is so huge.

1:00
Walton Dilcox: What 2023 draft prospect makes this top 100 rn?

1:00
Eric A Longenhagen: All the 50s here: 2023 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

1:01
Bad Moon Rising: Dark horse Twins prospects that could be on upcoming top 100 lists?  Emmanuel Rodriguez? Marco Raya? Connor Prelipp?

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll add David Festa to that list, more likely than Prielipp for me.

1:01
Teddy: Colin Barber a legit option to be Astros’ starting CF in the near future?

1:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Would make for one hell of a tandem with McCormick.

1:02
Craig: Who is your favorite prospect? Not the top prospect, but one you really went to bat for and think is going to be an absolute stud despite risks in the projection?

1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Cappe and Cristian Hernandez

1:03
Pete: So Ben Joyce may be better than Kumar Rocker? I don’t get this game.

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe. I had one scout tell me “if you’re gonna put Mason Miller on there maybe consider Ben Joyce”

1:03
Tim: The probable FV outcome charts are fantastic!!

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Gracias, we are huge nerds.

1:03
Omar: What constitutes a step forward for Ronny Mauricio this season? Does it really come down to pitch selection?

1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, take a pitch Ronny Mo!

1:04
Mike S: Has Peyton Graham increased or decreased in value since his 45+FV draft placement last year?

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s another one where I’m happy to be a little too high on him just because of my scouting preferences (frame, athleticism, power proj, up the middle fit)

1:04
Eric A Longenhagen: his hit tool is obvs terrifying

1:06
Walton Dilcox: What’s the difference btw SP and RP in this evolving meta?

1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: The lines are definitely blurring, and a big deal to me is you get to pick where the RP comes in to impact the game, the difference between an “instant” and a “sorcery”, if you will.

1:07
GBS42: Who has the biggest impact for ARI this season, Pfaadt, Jameson, or Ryne Nelson?

1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: This year? Nelson if he can hold his late 2022 stuff. I expect they’ll take a conservative line with Pfaadt initially.

1:07
Chris: Barger or Julien long term?

1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: We just ranked them, Chris.

1:07
Powers: Major drop in Espino’s rank. Injuries that big a cause of concern? Stuff is among best in minors when healthy

1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Yep, he was 12th before the shoulder news.

1:08
Guest: Thoughts on Brandon Walter pre-injury last year? Nearly a 23-1 K-BB ratio in his AA innings is pretty nuts

1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: He’d have been a 50 had he not gotten hurt, velo was also down before he went on the IL.

1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: If he’s clearly healthy this spring I’m moving him on

1:08
Tess Taruskin: His best secondary (curveball) doesn’t mesh well with the rest of his arsenal. H

1:09
Alan: Matthew Liberatore keeps dropping on these lists, and his debut last year wasn’t great. What does he need to do to get right, and what should we expect from him now?

1:09
Tess Taruskin: ^^ my bad. see above

1:09
Tess Taruskin: He’ll need his slider to come along since it tunnels better with his fastball.

1:09
Chase: Could you see Juan Brito jumping into the top 100 this season or next. His skillset is right up Cleveland’s alley and its hard to find glaring flaws on the statsheet.

1:09
Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a pick to click for me, bet he’s on there at some point this year.

1:11
Guest: I, too, am in blustery Arizona (Scottsdale).  With Spring Training games starting this weekend, who are the guys the that you’d consider the “must-see” prospects who will likely get a lot of playing time in the Cactus League.

1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: All the young Rockies hitters, Bernabel, Montgomery, Amador, Tovar, Yanquiel, etc. Any time those dudes are in the lineup, check them out.

1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Obvs if you can get to SRF for a Nelson/Pfaadt/Jameson start, that’s sweet as well

1:13
Sean: No Harry Ford? Not even in the next up list? Why such a large discrepancy between your evaluation and almost every other prospect ranking list?

1:13
Eric A Longenhagen: Lotta Harry Ford questions. Guys, the defense is super raw. His arm is crazy, but the receiving is bad. I’m not comfortable enough with his hit tool to stuff him with the defense component where it is right now. He’s been a 45+ for a while so he’s just outside the 112, not a single source fought me on it during list-making.

1:14
Teddy: What do you make of Will Wagner? Is he a real piece?

1:14
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

1:15
Mike: Is brady house’s 2022 injury the kinda of thing that can nag a lot down the road? I think it was a back injury

1:15
Tess Taruskin: House is interesting to think about next to Marco Luciano (both back injuries) – is the poor performance because of a temporary injury, or do we think the injury is going to be nagging enough to dampen his overall outlook. We landed on the optimistic side for House, but it’ll be something to watch this year.

1:16
Mac: Volpe running 45/40? Reporting was always that his actual sprint speed was average despite strong results, but below average now?

1:16
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t love sprint speed as a way of evaluating speed. It’s interesting but narrow in scope, I still think home-to-first times are better because beating out 50/50 balls is the most common way a guy’s speed can impact the game and your run time includes your acceleration, as well as your long speed and top speed, whereas Sprint Speed only cares about your top speed.

1:16
Cody L.: Wondering what happened to Junior Arias from this years Intl. class. The Board (as well as a few other outlets) had him projected to the Jays, but so far I can’t find anything related to him signing. Is it common for the odd prospect to sign later or did issues arise with this signing.

1:17
Eric A Longenhagen: thank you for reminding me about that, i need to find out wassup with that

1:18
jd: Are you able to identify organizations that regularly over-perform when it comes to development, and those that underperform? Meaning, taking unknown talent and making 50+ guys, or taking good draft choices and turning them into sub-35s.

1:18
Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, and it creates a problem where I’m predicting vs scouting. CLE, LAD, NYY (arms, catchers), ARI (i’m starting to believe), SEA (arms)…

1:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Dev is a huge deal and it’s part of why dollars have shifted from scouting to dev

1:19
Will: One of my favorite prospects is Lawrence Butler based on his athletic ability and raw strength. How far away is he/what would he need to do to crack the T100?

1:19
Tess Taruskin: Too many Ks, especially for a 22-year-old in A ball. The rest of the pieces are enticing though.

1:20
Walla Walla Ron Washington: Yoshida not ranked? Hit tool not enough to offset low power and weak defense?

1:20
Eric A Longenhagen: He was a 45+ on the Int’l board, industry consensus is Boston overpayed. Don’t think he sucks just think the impact is limited. Would happily be proven wrong, he’s been on the site’s radar for a while because he’s a super fun player.

1:21
Anthony: What happened to Hassell? Do you think he actually bounces back?

1:21
Eric A Longenhagen: Dude I honestly don’t know, he bat just looked dead at the very end of the year. I put the tape on again last night (he was one of the last guys I wrote up) and he’s just late on everything.

1:22
Peter: What do see as the Future for Ivan Herrera? Is he seen as a starting Big League catcher? If so for what team? He seems blocked in St. Louis and they seem to like Andrew Knizner as the backup

1:22
Eric A Longenhagen: He was on iterations of the list and his batted ball data is still really good, he seems to have plateaued as a defender and seems poised to have the same sort of growing pains Knizner has had.

1:22
Jdub: If Alexander Canario hadn’t gotten hurt, would he have sniffed the bottom of this list?

1:22
Eric A Longenhagen: Probably, comparable to Pages, right?

1:23
Oaktown Blues: What FV do you have on Esteury Ruiz at this point? Clearly he didn’t make it to a 50 but how close was he?

1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: I still have a 40 on him.

1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Thin that bat path is grooved, he top spins everything into the LF corner. 5th OF for me.

1:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Couple more than I have to record Effectively Wild

1:24
Dan “Big League Chew” McGraw: What has been your biggest miss on a prospect? I.E. someone you thought was going to be a bust that became great or vice versa

1:24
Eric A Longenhagen: I thought Yadier Alvarez was going to be godlike.

1:24
Guest: Any consideration for Vaquero?

1:24
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

1:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, that’s most possible for me during the spring so I’ll try to do some as I’m out there

1:25
odapm: are you going to do any FV scouting reports on current MLB players – i thought the one you did on kluber years ago was a great insight

1:25
Tess Taruskin: Both had rough seasons at the plate (basically no power from either, and too many Ks for Crawford), and I don’t think the rule changes boost them enough to make up for that.

1:25
matt: How close were Johan Rojas and Justin Crawford to making the list? Do the rule changes (specifically emphasizing stolen bases) help these guys?

1:25
Tess Taruskin: ^^ see above

1:25
Walton Dilcox: How’s Jordan Wicks’ breaking stuff these days? The slider in particular

1:25
Eric A Longenhagen: Still have a 40 on it. The pitch data grades love it, just isn’t there visually for me.

1:26
SH, Jr.: Do you have sources that Espino’s injury is a continuation of 2022’s, not novel? Official reports didn’t draw that distinction.

1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, it’s the same shoulder so…

1:28
A Boy Named Yu: Do you have everybody ranked at this point in order to do a top 100 and just need to write-up each teams’ system?  Or is everything past this point still being meshed out?

1:28
Walton Dilcox: Is Wesneski maybe the most cromulent pitching prospect in baseball on paper? A 93 RHP with an interesting slider, versatile, some ML success

1:28
Eric A Longenhagen: More the latter, a feature of getting live looks during the spring while lists keep rolling out. Guys who are basically MLB-ready or on 40-man rosters are more cemented, though.

1:28
Tess Taruskin: Cromulent indeed. But with three distinct fastballs to boot.

1:29
Guest: Which prospect is on your all-name team

1:30
Tess Taruskin: Love me some Tink. But I also went and saw Cal/Stanford last night, so Jag Burden is on my mind.

1:30
Tess Taruskin: (prospect based on name only)

1:30
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, we’ve gotta run. thanks for chatting and for reading the site. please consider an ad-free subscription, i promise it’s worth it.

1:31
Tess Taruskin: Bye y’all!





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shepmember
1 year ago

There appears to be a lot of prospects making their MLB debut in 2023 not just in your rankings but others. It seems like many more than usual. Thoughts on that?