2024 MLB Draft: Day One Recap

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted yesterday over on The Board. The positions below are what the player was announced as, not necessarily what I have them projected as on The Board. For pitchers, I have a role designated below: starter (SP), or single-inning or multi-inning reliever (SIRP and MIRP).

Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
29 39 40+ Slade Caldwell CF 18.1 Valley View HS (AR) Speed, contact
31 20 45 Ryan Waldschmidt LF 21.8 Kentucky Hit Data, Swing Projection
35 75 40 JD Dix SS 18.7 Whitefish Bay (WI) MIF Fit, Body Projection
64 HM 35+ Ivan Luciano C 17.6 El Shaddai Christian (PR) Arm Strength, Hitting Hands

The Diamondbacks stayed up the middle of the field with three projectable high schoolers and one data-darling college bat. At 5-foot-8, Slade Caldwell joins the ranks of D-backs outfielders who might need a step ladder to reach the top shelf of their lockers. He’s incredibly strong for his size and can really run. Ryan Waldschmidt’s fall surprised me. I have concerns about his current swing (his lower body isn’t doing anything and his head is flying all over the place) but thought I was low on him relative to where he was going to be picked. JD Dix and Ivan Luciano are projects, with Luciano needing more work on defense and Dix needing more work on his bat.

Atlanta Braves
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
24 21 45 Cam Caminiti SP 17.9 Saguaro HS (AZ) Velo, Spin, Body Projection
62 82 35+ Carter Holton SP 21.9 Vanderbilt Athleticism, Fastball Movement

It sounds like the Braves picked the Padres’ pocket right behind them. Cam Caminiti met with teams up and down the pick no. 8-18 range and I expected him to go somewhere in there. Instead, things got pretty weird in that pick range and he slid. This is the second draft in a row where the Braves gobbled up someone who slid unexpectedly (Hurston Waldrep last year). Carter Holton is an interesting buy-low whose velo and health slipped in 2024. He is a Braves’ type: slightly undersized but really athletic, with vertical fastball ride.

Baltimore Orioles
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
22 42 40+ Vance Honeycutt CF 21.2 North Carolina Defense, Power, Speed
32 49 40 Griff O’Ferrall SS 21.4 Virginia Contact, Defense
61 HM 35+ Ethan Anderson C 20.8 Virginia Contact, Pitch Framing

Here’s another team staying up the middle of the diamond and mostly prioritizing contact skills. We are going to find out just how good the Orioles are at improving swings and plate discipline because Vance Honeycutt, whose selection is similar to Jud Fabian’s a few drafts ago, needs a ton of help in that area. The Orioles turn plate discipline dev into a little meta game in which they award points or stickers or something to their prospects based on their swing decisions. Can Honeycutt, who also needs a swing overhaul, improve via this methodology? I’m not confident he’s going to hit, so I had him ranked lower than where he went by a good bit. Griff O’Ferrall is almost the exact opposite player: He does nothing but hit. Can he get stronger and pull the ball more as a pro? Ethan Anderson’s arm is currently worse than what is typical at catcher but he can hit from both sides of the plate, which isn’t true for many backstops, even if they’re only potential ones.

Boston Red Sox
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
12 9 45+ Braden Montgomery RF 21.2 Texas A&M Power, Arm Strength
50 HM 35+ Payton Tolle SP 21.7 TCU Funk, Extension, Performance

Braden Montgomery’s fall was shocking if you look at the mock draft but not at the rankings. There were rumors Boston would cut an under-slot deal at 12, but instead a really good prospect simply fell to them. Already under Craig Breslow the Red Sox have effected change on several of their pitching prospects, with a lot of it evident in changes made to the pitchers’ stride direction or arm angle in a way that makes them funkier. Payton Tolle is already in that funky phylum as a cross-bodied low-slot guy who generates huge extension. He looks like a reliever from an athletic standpoint and doesn’t throw especially hard, but Boston’s has made older arms better lately.

Chicago Cubs
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
14 7 45+ Cam Smith 3B 21.4 Florida State College Performance, Power, Arm
54 HM 35+ Cole Mathis 3B 21.0 College of Charleston Contact, Cape Cod Perf, Projection

The Cubs love their Cape Cod performers and got two more last night. Cam Smith was great value at pick no. 7 and, aside from being more filled out, shares a lot of similarities with Alec Bohm when he was drafted (big league body, power isn’t actualized yet, needs to work to stay/improve at third base). Cole Mathis I am not on quite as much. He’s a righty-hitting first baseman and I’m skeptical about his plate discipline even though some of the data suggests it’s great. He only swung at 56% of pitches down the middle in 2024; the college average was 73%. This guy is just standing there a lot of the time. But he is pretty athletic for a first baseman (he was announced at third), runs wells, and was a two-way player until 2024, so there might be some late-arriving offensive skill here.

Chicago White Sox
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
5 5 50 Hagen Smith SP 20.9 Arkansas Fastball Velo & Life, Slider
43 81 35+ Caleb Bonemer SS 18.8 Okemos (MI) Showcase Performance, Pull Power
68 96 35+ Blake Larson SP 18.4 IMG Academy (FL) Velo, Frame Projection, Spin Talent

The White Sox have prioritized advanced pitching in their transactions (mostly trades) since Chris Getz has taken the wheel and here they got one of the draft’s most likely fast-movers in Hagen Smith. I had Caleb Bonemer a full round behind where he was picked because his frame is maxed and I think his athleticism is a better fit at third base than where he was announced. He’s a prospect and performed in a showcase setting, he’s just more a third rounder for me. Similarly, I had Blake Larson ranked in a spot you’d associate more with an upper-six-figures deal. He has big stuff, but his command is super raw. The White Sox have two of the first 43 picks today.

Cincinnati Reds
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
2 6 50 Chase Burns SP 21.5 Wake Forest Velo, Slider, College Performance
51 30 45 Tyson Lewis SS 18.5 Millard West (NE) Bat Speed, Footspeed, SS Fit
71 53 40 Luke Holman SP 21.5 LSU SEC Performer, Breaking Balls, Control

Chase Burns, not Charlie Condon, huh? I think you can make an argument for the Reds drafting for need (and that need being pitching) as much as you can for any team because they have the position player core to tussle with just about anyone but need to buttress their starting rotation from both a depth and ceiling standpoint. Burns and Luke Holman should be in position to do both pretty quickly. Tyson Lewis balances the class nicely and adds a long-term up-the-middle project to their lower minors. It was a nice first day for the Reds.

Cleveland Guardians
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
1 2 50 Travis Bazzana 2B 21.9 Oregon State Every Offensive Tool/Skill
36 27 45 Braylon Doughty SP 18.6 Chaparral (CA) Command, Breaking Ball Quality
48 46 40+ Jacob Cozart C 21.5 NC State Defense, Arm

I was right about the JJ Wetherholt bait-and-switch in my final mock. Travis Bazzana is great. You should read my full scouting report over on The Board, but he’s absolutely a worthy first overall selection and nobody should be worried that Cleveland has a ton of middle infielders; most good teams have middle infield athletes playing all over the diamond. As Cam Caminiti slid, there were rumors that the Guards were floating him to their second pick with over-slot money but that didn’t happen and they ended up with Braylon Doughty, who I think is comparably talented and in Cleveland’s wheelhouse in terms of profile: fastball ride, breaking ball quality, athlete. Jacob Cozart is a glove-first catcher with plus defensive tools across the board. He has a lefty-hitting Jake Rogers look, with a very high floor because of his defense at a key position.

Colorado Rockies
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
3 4 50 Charlie Condon OF 21.2 Georgia Elite Power, SEC Performance, CF Fit?
38 13 45+ Brody Brecht SP 21.8 Iowa Velo, Elite Slider, Splitter
42 48 40 Jared Thomas LF 21.0 Texas Power, Power Projection

Before we get to Charlie Condon I want to talk about Brody Brecht. I had Brecht ranked 13th and he went 38th. For the last week or so, I felt pretty confident that Brecht would end up with a team that could fix his command woes and that I’d look like a genius for having him as high up my board as I do. Then the Rockies took him and I doubled over laughing at my own hubris in an otherwise very quiet second round draft room at the Cowtown Coliseum. He is essentially a Riley Pint mulligan (round-down fasball shape, elite secondary stuff, bad control), so let’s see what they’ve learned. Condon they announced as an outfielder and I was encouraged by the way he looked in center field on tape. Center in Coors is different, though. I do worry about Condon’s hit tool (I assume none of the other pundits had him lower than I did), but holy cow if he has even a 40 bat, he’s going to hit for absurd power there. Jared Thomas has rare physical projection for a college hitter.

Detroit Tigers
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
11 10 45+ Bryce Rainer SS 19.0 Harvard-Westlake (CA) Power Proj., SS Fit, Elite Arm
49 32 45 Owen Hall SP 18.7 Edmond North (OK) Frame Projection, Arm Action
72 67 40 Ethan Schiefelbein SP 18.3 Corona (CA) Polish, Effortless Delivery

This might be my favorite group from Day One. Lefty-hitting shortstops with power are rare and Detroit got one in Bryce Rainer at 11, hit tool risk be damned. I had a first round grade on Owen Hall, whose frame and arm action are screaming with long-term projection, and his pitch quality foundation is already in a great spot. Ethan Schiefelbein is almost like a diversification pick because he’s polished. There were some college arms available who I have ranked a little ahead of him (Bruce Cunningham was the big one), so it wasn’t as if Schiefelbein was an alternative to a lack of college pitchers, but I had him ranked right around where he was taken.

Houston Astros
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
28 25 45 Walker Janek C 21.8 Sam Houston Arm Strength, Athleticism, Power Proj.

I cannot wait for you to watch Walker Janek throw the baseball. The MiLB.TV broadcasts for Houston’s affiliates often seem almost intentionally terrible and I’m praying they rectify that so you can watch Janek sizzle ’em to second base with no misaligned camera cuts.

Kansas City Royals
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
6 3 50 Jac Caglianone RF/SP 21.4 Florida Elite Power, Arm, Late-Bloomer Traits
41 55 40 David Shields SP 17.8 Mt. Lebanon (PA) Spin, Silky Delivery, Projection

MLB listed Cags as a two-way player on their draft tracker; I was too busy Woj’ing to notice how the commish announced him at the podium. At the very least, I think Caglianone needs a break from pitching for a while so his arm strength can rebound and his approach can (hopefully) develop and improve. He takes a lot of feckless swings at stuff nowhere near the plate. I have a source who has been scouting for as long as I’ve been alive who thinks Jac is one of the most talented players he’s ever seen and that Caglianone’s skills have played down because he was asked to do so much at Florida. His ceiling is in the exosphere, and if he can hit it and peak at the same time Bobby Witt Jr. does, it’s going to change that franchise. I heard before the draft that David Shields’ number was “top 20 money,” so let’s pay attention to KC’s Day Two picks to see if they cut like they did last year with Carson Roccaforte.

Los Angeles Angels
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
8 23 45 Christian Moore 2B 21.7 Tennessee Power, SEC Performance
45 38 40+ Chris Cortez SIRP 21.8 Texas A&M Velo, Sweeper
74 62 40 Ryan Johnson MIRP 21.9 Dallas Baptist Slider, Slider Command, Performance

It looks like the Angels are still looking for guys who can be hustled to Orange County. Christian Moore is a divisive player because he was a superlative college performer, but when you drill on his hit tool evaluation, it’s kind of scary. He also isn’t a great defender. Some people in the game absolutely love him and would have loved for him to fall into the middle of the first round, while others were amused he went this high. Chris Cortez and Ryan Johnson (both lower-slot guys with great breaking balls) could be the fastest players to the big leagues from this draft class.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
23 26 45 Kellon Lindsey SS 18.8 Hardee (FL) Speed, Power Projection

He was announced as a shortstop, but I don’t think Kellon Lindsey has the arm to play there. He has elite wheels that I think will make him an impact center field defender and, though he’s a skinny kid, he isn’t short. He’s listed at 6-foot-2 and the Dodgers have helped players add strength in the past.

Miami Marlins
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
16 33 40+ PJ Morlando LF 19.2 Summerville HS (SC) Monster Power
56 29 45 Carter Johnson SS 18.4 Oxford HS (AL) Contact, Frame Projection, MIF Fit
70 61 40 Aiden May MIRP 21.2 Oregon State Slider, Velo

I had PJ Morlando in the comp round but like this group overall. I think Morlando’s swing (he has a very stationary lower half) robbed him of some of his athleticism and might be why he swung and missed more than you’d like to see from a 19-year-old high schooler, even though he was probably doing that to try to not strikeout so much. Carter Johnson could be this draft’s Cooper Pratt, a hitterish, long-levered, projectable infielder who is poised to take off if he can get a little stronger. Miami has had success with pitchers who have less than ideal fastball shape and that’s Aiden May, who has a great breaking ball.

Milwaukee Brewers
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
17 92 35+ Braylon Payne CF 17.9 Elkins (TX) Youth, Speed, Athleticism
34 56 40 Blake Burke 1B 21.1 Tennessee Power, SEC Performance
57 54 40 Bryce Meccage SP 18.3 Pennington School (NJ) Arm Speed, Body Proj., Curve
67 74 40 Chris Levonas SP 18.4 Christian Brothers (NJ) Velo, Secondary Pitches

I think it’s safe to say that Milwaukee had other plans that were dashed by who went in front of them, most likely the college bats taken in the 10-14 range. I don’t know why they didn’t think enough of Carson Benge to take him when their old boss’ org did. Braylon Payne is one of the youngest and fastest players in the draft, but he needs a ton of swing work. He’s definitely under slot, the question is by how much. After taking Tennessee slugger Blake Burke, Milwaukee picked up two prep arms from New Jersey who are likely to come in a little over slot, but let’s not assume the Brewers are done. Remember, they gave over-slot bonuses of varying amounts to seven high schoolers last year, and they could have saved enough pool space with the Payne pick to get more than just the two high school pitchers they already have.

Minnesota Twins
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
21 36 40+ Kaelen Culpepper SS 21.5 Kansas State Power, Athleticism, Arm Strength
33 45 40+ Kyle DeBarge SS 21.0 LA-Lafayette Contact, Athleticism, SS Fit
60 84 35+ Billy Amick 3B 21.7 Tennessee Power
69 24 45 Dasan Hill SP 18.5 Grapevine (TX) Frame, Feel for Spin

I have mixed-positive feeling about the Twins first day because I’m lukewarm on Kaelen Culpepper due to his chase tendencies and am mostly out on Billy Amick, who I don’t think will hit. But I think Culpepper (the Twins now have two Culpeppers in their system, C.J. is the other) has such thunder in his hands and is such a grindy athlete that he’s going to find a way to be something, and I like Kyle DeBarge and Dasan Hill quite a bit. DeBarge is tiny, but he’s a great athlete who makes a lot of contact. Hill is one of the lankier, more projectable arms in the class.

New York Mets
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
19 16 45 Carson Benge RF 21.5 Oklahoma State Gorgeous Swing, Contact Perf
46 50 40 Jonathan Santucci SP 21.5 Duke Fastball, Slider

In addition to watching Walker Janek throw, you should go to YouTube and find Carson Benge highlights to watch his swing. It’s the prettiest in the draft; aside from Theo Gillen’s, it lacks a peer. Benge joins former college teammate and fellow two-way player Nolan McLean in the org. He wasn’t healthy or effective late in the season, but Jonathan Santucci’s present stuff was better than virtually anyone left in the draft at this point. Hopefully he can take a trajectory similar to Brandon Sproat and surprise everyone by suddenly throwing strikes.

New York Yankees
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
26 58 40 Ben Hess SP 21.9 Alabama Plus Extension, Monster Curveball
53 47 40+ Bryce Cunningham SP 21.6 Vanderbilt Frame, Changeup, Late Bloomer

It sounds like Ben Hess’ medical scared some teams and our draft room intel says he’s getting done for less than slot. Bryce Cunningham was a really good pick where they got him and presents the Yankees dev group with a fastball/changeup foundation that they’ll need to help augment with a good breaking ball.

Oakland Athletics
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
4 17 45 Nick Kurtz 1B 21.3 Wake Forest Power, Patience, Defense
40 37 40+ Tommy White 3B 21.4 LSU Raked vs. the SEC, Power, Sneaky Good D
73 HM 35+ Gage Jump SIRP 21.2 LSU Fastball Ride

I’m a good bit lower on Nick Kurtz than where he was picked because I’m scared his swing won’t translate to pro ball. I’m not on an island in this regard, but several teams in the top 10 loved Kurtz. I do wonder how the A’s solve the Tyler Soderstrom/Kurtz/Will Simpson equation (I think I was light on Simpson when I wrote the A’s list — he’s good) since all three could conceivably move quickly, but the A’s having too many good players would be a great problem for them to have. I think Tommy White can play third base and so don’t consider him part of that potential clog. I have a Maikel Franco comp on Tommy Tanks. Gage Jump I’m not keen on. He’s a pure relief prospect with a violent delivery and maxed-out frame. I have him in as a one-pitch reliever (none of his secondaries played like an above-average pitch in college) with up/down command. That’s just kind of this draft, though. At a certain point, the players are more flawed than good and that’s already happening this year.

Philadelphia Phillies
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
27 HM 35+ Dante Nori OF 19.8 Northville (MI) Speed, Defense
63 70 40 Griffin Burkholder CF 18.9 Freedom (VA) Speed, Swing and Defensive Projection

As I shuttled info around to various draft rooms toward the back of the first round, Philly’s Dante Nori selection was met with shock. He’s about to turn 20, so there’s a subset of teams that just weren’t on him at all. Nor was I — he was the first player drafted who wasn’t on The Board. He runs and plays defense well, he made a good amount of contact during showcase play (which you’ve got to adjust for his age) and could be under slot (though I don’t know that for sure yet). Griffin Burkholder is another speedster.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
9 12 45+ Konnor Griffin RF 18.2 Jackson Prep (MS) Everything but the Hit Tool
37 68 40 Levi Sterling SP 17.9 Notre Dame (CA) Mech. Grace, Arrow-Up Velo, Frame
47 31 45 Wyatt Sanford SS 18.6 Independence (TX) Defense, Frame + Power Projection

The Pirates’ first day of picks was pretty ballsy because they took all high schoolers at a moment when their big league teams really needs competent hitters to surround their studly young arms. They haven’t shown the ability to max out the talented guys they do have, and now Konnor Griffin and Wyatt Sanford (who both have hit tool question marks but huge upside) are in the fold. It makes sense for the Pirates to take a shot on someone like Griffin who, if he hits, is the sort of player the Pirates can’t sign in free agency. Sanford’s glove gives him a floor of sorts, but he needs to get stronger. Levi Sterling is a skinny 6-foot-5 righty with a relatively advanced repertoire and an effortless delivery. He’s a lower-variance high school prospect with backend starter projection.

San Diego Padres
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
25 22 45 Kash Mayfield SP 19.4 Elk City (OK) Changeup, Command, Velo
52 76 40 Boston Bateman SP 18.8 Camarillo (CA) Size, Arm Action, Breaking Ball

San Diego would have scooped up a falling Caminiti but they pivoted to Kash Mayfield, who teams picking in this area also really liked. Big, physical high school arms have been a staple of San Diego drafts’ since MacKenzie Gore. Boston Bateman has an inning-eating starter’s frame and mechanical consistency, but the ceiling feels relatively low due to his fastball projection; he needs a third pitch.

San Francisco Giants
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
13 15 45 James Tibbs III RF 21.8 Florida State ACC Performance, Well-Rounded Offense

James Tibbs III is a rock solid pick for the Giants, who get one of the more well-rounded college hitters in the class, a guy likely to be a good platoon outfielder at the very least. Tibbs and college teammate Cam Smith get to be about seven miles away from one another during spring training.

Seattle Mariners
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
15 34 40+ Jurrangelo Cijntje SP 21.1 Mississippi State Unicorn Switch Pitcher
55 28 45 Ryan Sloan SP 18.5 York (IL) Arm Strength, Breaking Ball Quality, Command Projection

I’m not sure why the buzz around the Mariners and Trey Yesavage was so strong before the draft and then they passed on him to take a different college arm. The notion of the M’s applying their pitching dev to a switch-pitcher is very exciting. The same is true of Ryan Sloan and his excellent breaking ball. Sloan fits with Seattle’s M.O. because he’s athletic and throws strikes but doesn’t necessarily have the best fastball shape (it’s good though, better than Emerson Hancock‘s or George Kirby’s). My pre-draft convos had Sloan’s camp asking for $4 million, so look for the Mariners to cut some deals on Day Two.

St. Louis Cardinals
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
7 1 50 JJ Wetherholt SS 21.8 West Virginia Little Bit of Everything

The Cardinals got my top ranked player at pick no. 7, the time restaurants close in that city. Pretty good.

Tampa Bay Rays
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
18 8 45+ Theo Gillen CF 18.8 Westlake (TX) Explosive Hands, Growing Pop, Speed
58 HM 35+ Émilian Pitre 2B 21.8 Kentucky SEC Contact Performance
66 65 40 Tyler Bell SS 19.0 Lincoln-Way East (IL) Defense, Switch-Hitter, Power Proj.

I had Theo Gillen as my top ranked high schooler in this class because nobody else has the same contact/power combo. Gillen was announced as an outfielder rather than a shortstop due to arm issues that cropped up after he tore his labrum earlier in high school. He runs well enough to try center. Émilian Pitre is a little second baseman who can hit and performed in the SEC. Tyler Bell is toolsier and riskier from a hit tool standpoint. Switch-hitting shortstops like him are rare. This is a well-diversified mix.

Texas Rangers
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
30 18 45 Malcolm Moore C 20.9 Stanford Underlying Contact Performance, Patience
65 83 35+ Dylan Dreiling LF 21.2 Tennessee Low-ball Power

Malcolm Moore hit .255 as a junior, but his underlying stats were really good, especially his contact rates. He may not have the defensive skill set to catch. Dylan Dreiling has huge power, but I don’t think he’s going to hit.

Toronto Blue Jays
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
20 19 45 Trey Yesavage SP 21.0 East Carolina Polish, Repertoire Depth
59 59 40 Khal Stephen SP 21.6 Mississippi State Big Frame, Fastball Carry, Breakers

Two good college arms for the Jays here, with Trey Yesavage being the headliner because of his unexpected fall. The Jays’ pick was very difficult to ascertain during the draft, not only for me but for several teams picking behind them. It took a while, which didn’t give the impression that they couldn’t wait to call in their selection. I’ve liked Khal Stephen as a late-blooming arm since he was in Purdue’s bullpen just a couple years ago. He’s less developed than most big program college starters but has the build, fastball ride, and breaking stuff of a good starter.

Washington Nationals
Pick Rank FV Name Position Age School Strengths
10 11 45+ Seaver King SS 21.2 Wake Forest Versatility, Athleticism, Sneaky Pop
39 43 40+ Caleb Lomavita C 21.6 Cal Athleticism, Power
44 HM 35+ Luke Dickerson 2B 18.9 Morris Knolls HS (NJ) Contact Performance

I don’t think Washington is done wheeling and dealing with high profile players. First rounder Seaver King is likely under slot, and I don’t think Luke Dickerson is so far over that he’ll completely swallow the surplus created by King cutting a deal. There are three or four seven-figure high schoolers left on The Board and the Nats pick fifth today. Multiple high school pitchers were picked early in round two last year (including Travis Sykora) and I’d expect at least some of that to happen again. Caleb Lomavita is a compact, athletic catcher with a plus arm and good pull pop for his position; he might be most effective in a big league timeshare due to his stature.

Day Two of the draft kicks off at 2 ET, with MLB.com streaming all eight rounds.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

78 Comments
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fangraphsreaderbutwoke
2 months ago

Don’t get the Pirates draft at all.

crackbaldomember since 2024
2 months ago

I think they took the player who they thought has the highest upside. That’s sort of it.

JayGray007
2 months ago

i get why youre saying this (heck, even Longenhagen kinda said it), but i feel like for about 20 years we’ve all had an understanding that most teams arent drafting for need. Theyre taking the guy who they think will be good someday.

I see why you think they’d want a more polished hitter (Montgomery wouldve been nice!), but their front office is just gonna have to find hitters a different way. By paying money or by paying players in a trade. Nobody ever said a team had to be 100 percent home grown. This isnt a problem for a competent front office. A competent office, trying to win, should be able to find a good RF for a few years.

Of course, one can wonder if Cherington is competent and prioritizing winning.

Also, i feel like if youre penciling a 9th overall pick college hitter into a 2025-6 lineup and assuming theyre gonna be an above average contributor, that’s probably flawed logic already.

i GET what youre saying and why youre saying it. but that’s just my response.

Last edited 2 months ago by JayGray007
JayGray007
2 months ago
Reply to  JayGray007

i think it’s pretty likely we see some guys like Barco and/or Harrington and/or ashcraft, etc, converted into controllable hitting over the next year.

Also they can always simply pay someone. a lot to ask, i know.

fangraphsreaderbutwoke
2 months ago
Reply to  JayGray007

I sort of like Konnor Griffin the draft prospect. I just hate his match with Ben Cherington’s development team.

JayGray007
2 months ago

I get it. I think Griffin could either be Bubba Starling, Jo Adell, or Matt Kemp, and that’s true regardless of what team he goes to. Maybe the bust probability is higher in pittsburgh than elsewhere. i give you that. its possible that youre right.

To me, the concerns of their hitting development spreads to the college guys theyve taken too, so i dont think my concerns would be all that much lower with a Montgomery.

In fairness to them, i do feel like Termarr Johnson (the last prep player they took high) is kinda humming along and has kinda become underrated. the BA is low but a wrc+ of 130 in Hi A for a guy who was 19 two months ago isnt unimpressive. That league is just such a mess for hitting. Very much looking forward to some AA data.

fangraphsreaderbutwoke
2 months ago
Reply to  JayGray007

Yes, Termarr should be in AA getting some strikes to swing at.

I feel like Konnor Griffin should have gone to the Braves or Orioles. The Pirates did replace their top draft evaluator last offseason so this is the new guy’s imprint here but they didn’t change up their dev folks from what I can tell so I wonder how much difference it makes.

formerly matt w
2 months ago
Reply to  JayGray007

One caution about Termarr’s A+ line (from a strict stat line standpoint) is that Greensboro, the Pirates A+ park, has the reputation of a bandbox, and Johnson has 6 of his 9 HR and (if I’m doing the math right) around 50 more points of BABIP at home. (Although Baseball America has Greensboro as a 97 for LHB, hm.)

There’s also the usual caution about an A-ball player whose wRC+ is sustained by a high walk rate, but in his Pirates writeup Eric said that Johnson has a minuscule 20% chase rate regardless of count, which suggests real command of the strike zone instead of just waiting for A-ball pitchers to miss. I hope, anyway.

synco
2 months ago
Reply to  JayGray007

Teams have probably realized that drafting for need is just as speculative, works out just as infrequently, and comes with a lower ceiling to boot as compared to just drafting the best guy.

sadtrombonemember since 2020
2 months ago

It was a great draft on value but I’m a little leery of Griffin to the Pirates because they’ve had such a tough time developing the hitting part of the profile and Griffin needs a lot of work there. I suppose the Pirates themselves can’t keep themselves from drafting hitters forever. But someone like Montgomery would have been a better pick IMO for them, because while he needs work too it’s less extreme than with Griffin.

This one–and the Brecht pick to the Rockies–seem to me to be the ones where the players themselves are less likely to succeed because of the organization’s strengths and weaknesses. Hopefully they succeed anyway.

Last edited 2 months ago by sadtrombone
fangraphsreaderbutwoke
2 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

The Pirates front office can’t develop hitting: fullstop. The last +1 bWAR OF they drafted was in 2014 (Connor Joe and Jordan Luplow who both put up most of their value elsewhere). The team is historically bad at developing hitters and the trend spans GMs which makes sense because a handful of the staff are holdovers from Huntington. There’s a bunch of tension and disagreement within the staff as outlined in the very embarrassing The Athletic article just before this season began:

To win with a low-budget model requires excelling in all areas of player development. But conversations with more than 20 current and former players, coaches and club officials, some of whom were granted anonymity in order to speak freely, revealed numerous issues plaguing the Pirates: Years of misses in the draft and amateur international market. Conflicts between old- and new-school philosophies in the coaching ranks. Distrust among some players in the development process, including a situation last season in which third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes secretly sought help from the Pirates’ then-Double A hitting coach, who the team let go a short time later. Most of all: A front office handcuffed by a frugal owner.

I’m waiting for them to fire Dutch “movement guru” Director of Methodology Bart Haanegraff as a signal of actually getting serious about improving hitting but instead Cherington promotes the guy!

“I love Bart. He has a place in a major-league organization,” one of the instructors said. “But he can’t be in charge of the hitting program.”

The team is an embarrassment and it all begins with a no-skill inheritor like Nutting evaluating the talent that’s supposed to evaluate the talent.

Last edited 2 months ago by fangraphsreaderbutwoke
maguromember since 2016
2 months ago

The thing is, if the organization is just dumb and incompetent and hopeless, drafting Montgomey or Tibbs doesn’t change that.

fangraphsreaderbutwoke
2 months ago
Reply to  maguro

I agree but if you take more polished guys at least they can sometimes succeed in spite of the stupidity a la Skenes, right?

JayGray007
2 months ago

or perhaps, flipped around, Griffin will be young and around long enough for a new group to come in and be competent lol

fangraphsreaderbutwoke
2 months ago
Reply to  JayGray007

I mean, I guess I like that but I’m 100% certain Cherington wasn’t thinking: “At least this kid is young enough someone better than me can develop him before Rule 5”

votto erotica
2 months ago

As a Levi Sterling fan I think that pick could end very well. Doesn’t turn 18 until September, ideal pitcher’s build and good command of a full complement of pitches for his age.

My instinct is that he’ll experience the growth this offseason that most prep draftees have the winter before the draft. I think there’s a high percentage outcome that he’s at least Thomas Harrington* or a Jack Flaherty type and a chance that his FB and breaking balls take a step forward with strength gains and he ends up pretty special.

*I’m a big Harrington fan and this would be a great outcome imo. I don’t know if PIT fans think much of Harrington so YMMV.

fangraphsreaderbutwoke
2 months ago
Reply to  votto erotica

We’re thankful that Harrington showed Jared Jones his split grip fastball this offseason and have high hopes for the lad but iirc we’re still wondering if he’s got a secondary pitch to get LH bats out. Sterling sounded a bit like Tyler Glasnow at draft time to me which triggered my Sinkerball Academy anger all over again but at least Cherington isn’t doing that even if he is just whiffing on every hitter.