2024 MLB Draft: Day One Recap

Below is a team-by-team analysis of last night’s draft activity. Remember that you can find more detailed scouting reports and tool grades for the players drafted yesterday over on The Board. The positions below are what the player was announced as, not necessarily what I have them projected as on The Board. For pitchers, I have a role designated below: starter (SP), or single-inning or multi-inning reliever (SIRP and MIRP).

The Diamondbacks stayed up the middle of the field with three projectable high schoolers and one data-darling college bat. At 5-foot-8, Slade Caldwell joins the ranks of D-backs outfielders who might need a step ladder to reach the top shelf of their lockers. He’s incredibly strong for his size and can really run. Ryan Waldschmidt’s fall surprised me. I have concerns about his current swing (his lower body isn’t doing anything and his head is flying all over the place) but thought I was low on him relative to where he was going to be picked. JD Dix and Ivan Luciano are projects, with Luciano needing more work on defense and Dix needing more work on his bat.

It sounds like the Braves picked the Padres’ pocket right behind them. Cam Caminiti met with teams up and down the pick no. 8-18 range and I expected him to go somewhere in there. Instead, things got pretty weird in that pick range and he slid. This is the second draft in a row where the Braves gobbled up someone who slid unexpectedly (Hurston Waldrep last year). Carter Holton is an interesting buy-low whose velo and health slipped in 2024. He is a Braves’ type: slightly undersized but really athletic, with vertical fastball ride.

Here’s another team staying up the middle of the diamond and mostly prioritizing contact skills. We are going to find out just how good the Orioles are at improving swings and plate discipline because Vance Honeycutt, whose selection is similar to Jud Fabian’s a few drafts ago, needs a ton of help in that area. The Orioles turn plate discipline dev into a little meta game in which they award points or stickers or something to their prospects based on their swing decisions. Can Honeycutt, who also needs a swing overhaul, improve via this methodology? I’m not confident he’s going to hit, so I had him ranked lower than where he went by a good bit. Griff O’Ferrall is almost the exact opposite player: He does nothing but hit. Can he get stronger and pull the ball more as a pro? Ethan Anderson’s arm is currently worse than what is typical at catcher but he can hit from both sides of the plate, which isn’t true for many backstops, even if they’re only potential ones.

Braden Montgomery’s fall was shocking if you look at the mock draft but not at the rankings. There were rumors Boston would cut an under-slot deal at 12, but instead a really good prospect simply fell to them. Already under Craig Breslow the Red Sox have effected change on several of their pitching prospects, with a lot of it evident in changes made to the pitchers’ stride direction or arm angle in a way that makes them funkier. Payton Tolle is already in that funky phylum as a cross-bodied low-slot guy who generates huge extension. He looks like a reliever from an athletic standpoint and doesn’t throw especially hard, but Boston’s has made older arms better lately.

The Cubs love their Cape Cod performers and got two more last night. Cam Smith was great value at pick no. 7 and, aside from being more filled out, shares a lot of similarities with Alec Bohm when he was drafted (big league body, power isn’t actualized yet, needs to work to stay/improve at third base). Cole Mathis I am not on quite as much. He’s a righty-hitting first baseman and I’m skeptical about his plate discipline even though some of the data suggests it’s great. He only swung at 56% of pitches down the middle in 2024; the college average was 73%. This guy is just standing there a lot of the time. But he is pretty athletic for a first baseman (he was announced at third), runs wells, and was a two-way player until 2024, so there might be some late-arriving offensive skill here.

The White Sox have prioritized advanced pitching in their transactions (mostly trades) since Chris Getz has taken the wheel and here they got one of the draft’s most likely fast-movers in Hagen Smith. I had Caleb Bonemer a full round behind where he was picked because his frame is maxed and I think his athleticism is a better fit at third base than where he was announced. He’s a prospect and performed in a showcase setting, he’s just more a third rounder for me. Similarly, I had Blake Larson ranked in a spot you’d associate more with an upper-six-figures deal. He has big stuff, but his command is super raw. The White Sox have two of the first 43 picks today.

Chase Burns, not Charlie Condon, huh? I think you can make an argument for the Reds drafting for need (and that need being pitching) as much as you can for any team because they have the position player core to tussle with just about anyone but need to buttress their starting rotation from both a depth and ceiling standpoint. Burns and Luke Holman should be in position to do both pretty quickly. Tyson Lewis balances the class nicely and adds a long-term up-the-middle project to their lower minors. It was a nice first day for the Reds.

I was right about the JJ Wetherholt bait-and-switch in my final mock. Travis Bazzana is great. You should read my full scouting report over on The Board, but he’s absolutely a worthy first overall selection and nobody should be worried that Cleveland has a ton of middle infielders; most good teams have middle infield athletes playing all over the diamond. As Cam Caminiti slid, there were rumors that the Guards were floating him to their second pick with over-slot money but that didn’t happen and they ended up with Braylon Doughty, who I think is comparably talented and in Cleveland’s wheelhouse in terms of profile: fastball ride, breaking ball quality, athlete. Jacob Cozart is a glove-first catcher with plus defensive tools across the board. He has a lefty-hitting Jake Rogers look, with a very high floor because of his defense at a key position.

Before we get to Charlie Condon I want to talk about Brody Brecht. I had Brecht ranked 13th and he went 38th. For the last week or so, I felt pretty confident that Brecht would end up with a team that could fix his command woes and that I’d look like a genius for having him as high up my board as I do. Then the Rockies took him and I doubled over laughing at my own hubris in an otherwise very quiet second round draft room at the Cowtown Coliseum. He is essentially a Riley Pint mulligan (round-down fasball shape, elite secondary stuff, bad control), so let’s see what they’ve learned. Condon they announced as an outfielder and I was encouraged by the way he looked in center field on tape. Center in Coors is different, though. I do worry about Condon’s hit tool (I assume none of the other pundits had him lower than I did), but holy cow if he has even a 40 bat, he’s going to hit for absurd power there. Jared Thomas has rare physical projection for a college hitter.

This might be my favorite group from Day One. Lefty-hitting shortstops with power are rare and Detroit got one in Bryce Rainer at 11, hit tool risk be damned. I had a first round grade on Owen Hall, whose frame and arm action are screaming with long-term projection, and his pitch quality foundation is already in a great spot. Ethan Schiefelbein is almost like a diversification pick because he’s polished. There were some college arms available who I have ranked a little ahead of him (Bruce Cunningham was the big one), so it wasn’t as if Schiefelbein was an alternative to a lack of college pitchers, but I had him ranked right around where he was taken.

I cannot wait for you to watch Walker Janek throw the baseball. The MiLB.TV broadcasts for Houston’s affiliates often seem almost intentionally terrible and I’m praying they rectify that so you can watch Janek sizzle ’em to second base with no misaligned camera cuts.

MLB listed Cags as a two-way player on their draft tracker; I was too busy Woj’ing to notice how the commish announced him at the podium. At the very least, I think Caglianone needs a break from pitching for a while so his arm strength can rebound and his approach can (hopefully) develop and improve. He takes a lot of feckless swings at stuff nowhere near the plate. I have a source who has been scouting for as long as I’ve been alive who thinks Jac is one of the most talented players he’s ever seen and that Caglianone’s skills have played down because he was asked to do so much at Florida. His ceiling is in the exosphere, and if he can hit it and peak at the same time Bobby Witt Jr. does, it’s going to change that franchise. I heard before the draft that David Shields’ number was “top 20 money,” so let’s pay attention to KC’s Day Two picks to see if they cut like they did last year with Carson Roccaforte.

It looks like the Angels are still looking for guys who can be hustled to Orange County. Christian Moore is a divisive player because he was a superlative college performer, but when you drill on his hit tool evaluation, it’s kind of scary. He also isn’t a great defender. Some people in the game absolutely love him and would have loved for him to fall into the middle of the first round, while others were amused he went this high. Chris Cortez and Ryan Johnson (both lower-slot guys with great breaking balls) could be the fastest players to the big leagues from this draft class.

He was announced as a shortstop, but I don’t think Kellon Lindsey has the arm to play there. He has elite wheels that I think will make him an impact center field defender and, though he’s a skinny kid, he isn’t short. He’s listed at 6-foot-2 and the Dodgers have helped players add strength in the past.

I had PJ Morlando in the comp round but like this group overall. I think Morlando’s swing (he has a very stationary lower half) robbed him of some of his athleticism and might be why he swung and missed more than you’d like to see from a 19-year-old high schooler, even though he was probably doing that to try to not strikeout so much. Carter Johnson could be this draft’s Cooper Pratt, a hitterish, long-levered, projectable infielder who is poised to take off if he can get a little stronger. Miami has had success with pitchers who have less than ideal fastball shape and that’s Aiden May, who has a great breaking ball.

I think it’s safe to say that Milwaukee had other plans that were dashed by who went in front of them, most likely the college bats taken in the 10-14 range. I don’t know why they didn’t think enough of Carson Benge to take him when their old boss’ org did. Braylon Payne is one of the youngest and fastest players in the draft, but he needs a ton of swing work. He’s definitely under slot, the question is by how much. After taking Tennessee slugger Blake Burke, Milwaukee picked up two prep arms from New Jersey who are likely to come in a little over slot, but let’s not assume the Brewers are done. Remember, they gave over-slot bonuses of varying amounts to seven high schoolers last year, and they could have saved enough pool space with the Payne pick to get more than just the two high school pitchers they already have.

I have mixed-positive feeling about the Twins first day because I’m lukewarm on Kaelen Culpepper due to his chase tendencies and am mostly out on Billy Amick, who I don’t think will hit. But I think Culpepper (the Twins now have two Culpeppers in their system, C.J. is the other) has such thunder in his hands and is such a grindy athlete that he’s going to find a way to be something, and I like Kyle DeBarge and Dasan Hill quite a bit. DeBarge is tiny, but he’s a great athlete who makes a lot of contact. Hill is one of the lankier, more projectable arms in the class.

In addition to watching Walker Janek throw, you should go to YouTube and find Carson Benge highlights to watch his swing. It’s the prettiest in the draft; aside from Theo Gillen’s, it lacks a peer. Benge joins former college teammate and fellow two-way player Nolan McLean in the org. He wasn’t healthy or effective late in the season, but Jonathan Santucci’s present stuff was better than virtually anyone left in the draft at this point. Hopefully he can take a trajectory similar to Brandon Sproat and surprise everyone by suddenly throwing strikes.

It sounds like Ben Hess’ medical scared some teams and our draft room intel says he’s getting done for less than slot. Bryce Cunningham was a really good pick where they got him and presents the Yankees dev group with a fastball/changeup foundation that they’ll need to help augment with a good breaking ball.

I’m a good bit lower on Nick Kurtz than where he was picked because I’m scared his swing won’t translate to pro ball. I’m not on an island in this regard, but several teams in the top 10 loved Kurtz. I do wonder how the A’s solve the Tyler Soderstrom/Kurtz/Will Simpson equation (I think I was light on Simpson when I wrote the A’s list — he’s good) since all three could conceivably move quickly, but the A’s having too many good players would be a great problem for them to have. I think Tommy White can play third base and so don’t consider him part of that potential clog. I have a Maikel Franco comp on Tommy Tanks. Gage Jump I’m not keen on. He’s a pure relief prospect with a violent delivery and maxed-out frame. I have him in as a one-pitch reliever (none of his secondaries played like an above-average pitch in college) with up/down command. That’s just kind of this draft, though. At a certain point, the players are more flawed than good and that’s already happening this year.

As I shuttled info around to various draft rooms toward the back of the first round, Philly’s Dante Nori selection was met with shock. He’s about to turn 20, so there’s a subset of teams that just weren’t on him at all. Nor was I — he was the first player drafted who wasn’t on The Board. He runs and plays defense well, he made a good amount of contact during showcase play (which you’ve got to adjust for his age) and could be under slot (though I don’t know that for sure yet). Griffin Burkholder is another speedster.

The Pirates’ first day of picks was pretty ballsy because they took all high schoolers at a moment when their big league teams really needs competent hitters to surround their studly young arms. They haven’t shown the ability to max out the talented guys they do have, and now Konnor Griffin and Wyatt Sanford (who both have hit tool question marks but huge upside) are in the fold. It makes sense for the Pirates to take a shot on someone like Griffin who, if he hits, is the sort of player the Pirates can’t sign in free agency. Sanford’s glove gives him a floor of sorts, but he needs to get stronger. Levi Sterling is a skinny 6-foot-5 righty with a relatively advanced repertoire and an effortless delivery. He’s a lower-variance high school prospect with backend starter projection.

San Diego would have scooped up a falling Caminiti but they pivoted to Kash Mayfield, who teams picking in this area also really liked. Big, physical high school arms have been a staple of San Diego drafts’ since MacKenzie Gore. Boston Bateman has an inning-eating starter’s frame and mechanical consistency, but the ceiling feels relatively low due to his fastball projection; he needs a third pitch.

James Tibbs III is a rock solid pick for the Giants, who get one of the more well-rounded college hitters in the class, a guy likely to be a good platoon outfielder at the very least. Tibbs and college teammate Cam Smith get to be about seven miles away from one another during spring training.

I’m not sure why the buzz around the Mariners and Trey Yesavage was so strong before the draft and then they passed on him to take a different college arm. The notion of the M’s applying their pitching dev to a switch-pitcher is very exciting. The same is true of Ryan Sloan and his excellent breaking ball. Sloan fits with Seattle’s M.O. because he’s athletic and throws strikes but doesn’t necessarily have the best fastball shape (it’s good though, better than Emerson Hancock‘s or George Kirby’s). My pre-draft convos had Sloan’s camp asking for $4 million, so look for the Mariners to cut some deals on Day Two.

The Cardinals got my top ranked player at pick no. 7, the time restaurants close in that city. Pretty good.

I had Theo Gillen as my top ranked high schooler in this class because nobody else has the same contact/power combo. Gillen was announced as an outfielder rather than a shortstop due to arm issues that cropped up after he tore his labrum earlier in high school. He runs well enough to try center. Émilian Pitre is a little second baseman who can hit and performed in the SEC. Tyler Bell is toolsier and riskier from a hit tool standpoint. Switch-hitting shortstops like him are rare. This is a well-diversified mix.

Malcolm Moore hit .255 as a junior, but his underlying stats were really good, especially his contact rates. He may not have the defensive skill set to catch. Dylan Dreiling has huge power, but I don’t think he’s going to hit.

Two good college arms for the Jays here, with Trey Yesavage being the headliner because of his unexpected fall. The Jays’ pick was very difficult to ascertain during the draft, not only for me but for several teams picking behind them. It took a while, which didn’t give the impression that they couldn’t wait to call in their selection. I’ve liked Khal Stephen as a late-blooming arm since he was in Purdue’s bullpen just a couple years ago. He’s less developed than most big program college starters but has the build, fastball ride, and breaking stuff of a good starter.

I don’t think Washington is done wheeling and dealing with high profile players. First rounder Seaver King is likely under slot, and I don’t think Luke Dickerson is so far over that he’ll completely swallow the surplus created by King cutting a deal. There are three or four seven-figure high schoolers left on The Board and the Nats pick fifth today. Multiple high school pitchers were picked early in round two last year (including Travis Sykora) and I’d expect at least some of that to happen again. Caleb Lomavita is a compact, athletic catcher with a plus arm and good pull pop for his position; he might be most effective in a big league timeshare due to his stature.

Day Two of the draft kicks off at 2 ET, with MLB.com streaming all eight rounds.