2024 Opening Day Chat

March 28, 2024

4:00	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and Happy Opening Day!

4:00	Davy Andrews: Hello everybody. Very glad to see you all!

4:00	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: Lets Goooooo!

4:01	Jay Jaffe: Welcome to the first leg of our chat, Davy’s here, Dan Szymborski will be along soon, and Matt Martell will be joining us as well.

4:01	Jay Jaffe: We’ve already got a Mike Trout home run to open the season, as well as — wait for it — ensuing disappointment from the Angels. Baseball is so back, baby.

4:01	Davy Andrews: Also, apparently Mike Trout is here?

4:01	Mike Trout: Thought I might start the season off with a bang

4:02	Mike Trout: Mike Trout

4:04	Jay Jaffe: The Orioles — our staff’s pick to win the AL East (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2024-staff-predictions/) — have pounded out five runs, chasing Patrick Sandoval.

4:05	Josh R: With all the Oriole hype it is a little off-putting to see Jorge Mateo, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, and Ramon Urias in the opening day lineup and only Gunnar and Westburg from the youngsters (and Adley I guess)

4:06

Jay Jaffe: It’s not ideal, and I’m particularly surprised that Jackson Holliday didn’t make the Opening Day roster, but while there’s a high degree of symbolism attached to this game, it’s just one of 162. A baseball team is a work in progress, and what’s here today won’t necessarily be here in September or October, for better or worse.

4:06	RTJ: Can someone defend Eric’s pick of Moreno for MVP?

4:09

Davy Andrews: This one surprised me a bit too. I think Eric’s about as knowledgeable as they come, so I’m definitely going to be keeping a closer eye on Moreno this season. However, we’re talking about a Gold Glover who has solid batted ball metrics. If he can lift the ball a bit more (and sometimes that’s a big if) his power will tick up in a big way

4:08	Dan Szymborski: And Dan is here.

4:08	Dan Szymborski: https://soundcloud.com/dan-szymborski/ai-vin-scully-advertises-szymbor…

4:09	Jay Jaffe: hi Dan!

4:09	Dan Szymborski: Yo!

4:09	Davy Andrews: Hi Dan! Hi Jay too!

4:09	Jay Jaffe: (and Hi, Davy! since that was merely implied before)

4:09	Davy Andrews: Yeah, we blew that one.

4:09	RTJ: Let’s overreact to stuff!

4:09	bringbackpologrounds: Besides Mr. Trout, who’s most likely to join the 100 WAR club?

4:11	Jay Jaffe: Given that Verlander, Kershaw and Scherzer, who are in the 70-81 WAR range, are close to or over 40, you have to go down to Mookie Betts at about 61 WAR to find someone with a plausible chance. Even then, I would be at least somewhat surprised if he gets there.

4:10	Davy Andrews: More ballplayers have entered the chat.

4:10	Judge: Going to be rough watching the orioles lose the AL East to the Yanks

4:10	Judge Judy: I have judgments on certain topics

4:10	SucramRenrut: Moreno becomes the best offensive catcher in the NL and leads the Dbacks to the playoffs with a War above 8?

4:10	Black and Orange: Austin Hays is totally fine.

4:11	Davy Andrews: Just one way in which he’s very similar to Eleanor Oliphant.

4:11	Nats Fan: Eddie Rosario in CF. Why?

4:11	Davy Andrews: Yup.

4:12	Jay Jaffe: Enjoy Arby’s!

4:12	Cap: Corbin Burnes has 5 Ks in 3 innings and honestly, his control has looked kinda iffy. Very impressive stuff

4:12	Dan Szymborski: Eddie Rosario: When You’re Also Playing Jesse Winker

4:13	Jay Jaffe: Burnes is my pick for AL Cy Young. Apologies in advance

4:13	Father Padre: Mike Trout starts off with a bang! With Ohtani out of the AL, chances Trout wins one more MVP in his career?

4:13	Davy Andrews: I don’t know about the odds, but I know that I would love it.

4:14	RH: Happy Opening Day!

4:14	5 Run Homer: Royce Lewis might just be really, really good

4:14	RTJ: royce lewis for MVP looking good

4:14	Dan Szymborski: We had five Burnes picks!

4:14	Dan Szymborski: Including me

4:14	Well-Beered Englishman: I just want to make sure this great game 1 moment is preserved: the MASN play by play guy tells David Rubenstein, “Just so you know, Ben brings up the Magna Carta every broadcast,” and Rubenstein excitedly says “Really?!”

4:14	Dan Szymborski: Oh man, I was bringing in groceries and missed it

4:15

Sodo Mojo: So not a Rockies fan but I find their seeming lack of direction fascinating from an organizational level. If you had to GM the Rockies how would you structure the team given the unique offensive environment they operate in. It can’t be a simple as focusing on Ground Ball pitchers and good infield defense can it?

4:15	Dan Szymborski: Just having an owner that wasn’t heavily involved in an incompetent way would be helpful, way before worrying about specifics

4:15	Yeah Well Hiura Towel: There’s too many games on right now. Please eliminate three. I am not a crackpot.

4:16	Davy Andrews: You might be overestimating the amount of power we have.

4:16	Jay Jaffe: I just showed my 7 1/2-year-old daughter that Simpsons episode last night. She loved it.

4:16	Dan Szymborski: I’m like 99% sure that the Kris Bryant signing was owner-pushed and definitely not from staff

4:16	Scott: One of the things that I love about Opening Day is daytime baseball. We need more of it throughout the year.

4:18	Davy Andrews: It’s true. Daytime baseball is great.

4:17	Dan Szymborski: Geez 7 1/2 already!

4:17	Angels In MIDseason Form: every time I see an Angels highlight it’s like “Mike Trout hit three homes runs and raised his average to .528 while Shohei Ohtani did something that hasn’t been done since ‘Tungsten Arm’ O’Doyle of the 1921 Akron Groomsmen, as the Tigers Orioles defeated the Angels 8-3″

4:18	Jay Jaffe: Switching from Angels-O’s to Cardinals-Dodgers on my TV…

4:18	5 Run Homer: Kevin Cash has now managed more games for the Rays than Joe Maddon, which seems impossible

4:18	5 Run Homer: Yandy Diaz is already annoying the Jays, great start

4:19	Drive Caminero: Yandy! Biceps coming through!

4:19	Dan Szymborski:

4:19	Jay Jaffe: nice

4:19	Jay Jaffe: finally a good use for AI

4:20	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Dan, you have to choose between eating a plateful of Skyline Chili with added chickpeas and black eyed peas OR posting an April Fools tweet in defense of Ippei and dealing with the backlash. Which do you choose?

4:20	Dan Szymborski: I think the Skyline. I’v enever had a whole COUNTRY mad at me

4:20	Davy Andrews: Juan Soto going to a full count and walking in his first Yankee PA. Sounds about right.

4:20	Well-Beered Englishman: That sound file is simultaneously both hilarious and accursed

4:20	Guest: Dan, thx for chat.. how do you decide to card players in zips when they go to japan? ( ex. Andre Jackson) do you rate them going forward based on japan stats or do you stop giving them zips until they return to mlb?

4:21	Dan Szymborski: I typically project them for one last season after they leave and then start again when they come back

4:21	BenettiWithdrawal: I just can’t this year due to White Sox fandom. Opening Day is no longer fun. Say something nice.

4:21	Jay Jaffe: The franchise sold it soul for one (1) more good season with Tony La Russa at the helm. The good news is that he won’t get a third tenure as manager, I guess?

4:21	Dan Szymborski: and when they come back, I have translations

4:21	Maikel Garcia: And you all said I had no power

4:21	Davy Andrews: Breakout pick from a lot of smart people.

4:21	5 Run Homer: Maikel Garcia! What do you guys think he can do this year?

4:23	Davy Andrews: It really depends whether he can lift the ball, but the defense is lovely.

4:23	joe: arraez strikeout on first PA, OK.

4:23	Jay Jaffe: Mookie Betts-Shohei Ohtani-Fredde Freeman is just an insane gauntlet for opposing pitchers to run

4:23	Matt Martell: Hi everyone, and happy Opening Day!

4:23	Jay Jaffe: Hi, Matt!

4:23	Davy Andrews: Welcome, Matt!

4:24	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: Tarik Skubal looks like one uncomfortable at bat

4:24	Kansas City Royals:: You can’t stop them; you just try to contain them.

4:24	Matt Martell: PICKLE!

4:25	Matt Martell: Not really. That was far less exciting that I thought it would be.

4:25	Fashion note: These new uniforms really do look kind of cheesy. Like knockoffs.

4:25	Dan Szymborski: Hi Matt!

4:26	Aaron: What is the point of Reds baseball without Joey Votto? At least he’s off the team so he won’t get hurt or suspended like the rest of the team… baseball! Happy Opening Day!

4:26	Dan Szymborski: At least he wasn’t a third baseman

4:27	Dan Szymborski: Jackson Merrill’s mom could be Eno’s mom

4:27	Corioles Effect: The A’s have a real chance to be better than the White Sox this year

4:28	Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually edged the White Sox over the A’s

4:28	joe: I’ve seen these small lettered nameplates in a video game before… one of the past (terrible) MLB 2K games.

4:28	JuliNO Rodriguez: Really wish there was any true recourse for gross, unfettered capitalism like the Fanatics jersey stuff!

4:28	KC Pain: New uniforms I cant believe they let happen after all the complaints

4:28	Wireless Joe Jackson: If Snell wins another Cy, is he a Hall candidate? He doesn’t seem at all likely to get close to the WAR threshold.

4:28

Jay Jaffe: He’l be a candidate but I think a tough sell unless he bulksd up his career numbers considerably. I thought Jacob deGrom could pitch his way into being a Koufax-like exception if he had banked a third Cy, but that’s not likely to happen now, and Snell doesn’t have as high a floor that deGrom had.

4:28	Dan Szymborski: What’s kind of sad is unlike the A’s, the White Sox actually think they’re retooling quickly

4:29	Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say – if he has a third Cy Young season, he’s probably already overperforming his projection

4:29	Aaron: What does Votto:3B mean?

4:29	Dan Szymborski: The Reds and their infinite 3B complex

4:30	Aaron: The Reds have an infinite SS complex now!

4:30	Jay Jaffe: The immaculate Concepcion?

4:31	Dan Szymborski: Whenever I hear Darvish’s name, I think of Tad from the South Park Aspen episode saying Stan DARSH

4:31	McGraw45: I know Darvish isn’t the sinkerballer in this matchup, but that sinker looks nice?

4:31	Dan Szymborski: I know it’s been 5 months so I may have forgotten whether this was true, but didn’t MLB TV score ticker at the top usually have the score and not just the two teams and the inning?

4:32	Guest: The doders with another deferred money contract signing will smith, will mlb allow this to continue?

4:32	Jay Jaffe: I don’t see them getting the players to forgo it. Nor should they, particularly because it works well for both the teams who choose to do it and their players.

4:33	Jay Jaffe: Put it this way, what are the owners going to give up to get the players to agree to forgo deferred money in their contracts? earlier arbitration?

4:33	Jay Jaffe: earlier free agency?

4:33	Jay Jaffe: <crickets>

4:34	Dan Szymborski: Nothing is what!

4:34	Dan Szymborski: If the players actually think Meyer is their problem, the next CBA negotiations are going to be a trainwreck

4:34	Nat: @dan there’s a setting you can change to show the scores

4:35	Dan Szymborski: Hmm, I wonder if I deactivated it, because I always remembered seeing it!

4:36	KC Pain: @Dan you gonna love when Marsh pitches for KC…..

4:36	Dan Szymborski: But then I’d be watching a Royals game! <ducking>

4:36	Guest: I think its just a way to circumvent the non salary cap. Of course these big market teams can sign players to 10+ year deals and pay most of the $ while on the beach. Mid level teams could never afford to pay contracts years after avguy is

4:36	Dan Szymborski: Given the low interest rates of the deferments, they certainly could

4:39	Jay Jaffe: Even the “poorest” of the billionaire owners understands the time value of money. They’re just banking that you don’t.

4:37	Corioles Effect: On the subject of the White Sox rebuild/retool, how many of Moncada, Jimenez, and Robert on the team next opening day?

4:40	Matt Martell: I’d say all three of them. They should trade Robert but I don’t think they will, and I’m not sure what trade value Moncada and Jiménez will have because of all their injuries. Things are bleak on the South Side.

4:37	Dan Szymborski: 3

4:39	Dan Szymborski: Glasnow had a nice efficient inning

4:39	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: There’s so much baseball happening I can’t even think of anything witty to say

4:39	Davy Andrews: Same.

4:40	Black and Orange: I’ve never lived on the East Coast, but with opening day in March, wouldn’t it be better for teams in the northeast to open the season on the road and finish at home? Opening day rainouts are a big downer. Twins and Rockies open on the road because winter isn’t over yet at home.

4:41	Jay Jaffe: There just aren’t enough warm weather or climate controlled locales to completely forgo the northeast on Opening Day. And you just can’t please all the people all of the time.

4:40	Mike: Are the Twins the most truest of true outcome teams?

4:40	Davy Andrews: That was certainly their MO last season, but I would imagine they’ll be less so without Gallo and MAT.

4:41	Guest: Perhaps they could but could you really see the indians err gurdians paying a guy 10 years after hes retired? Heck they dont want to pay guys while they are playing.

4:41	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but they don’t have to pay out all costs out of current money

4:41	Dan Szymborski: at the time of the salary

4:42	Dan Szymborski: paying 100 million in 2040 is WAY better than paying 100 million in 2024, even if the player is 10 years retired in 2040

4:44	Cap: 9 Ks in 5 innings for Corbin Burnes. Are the Angels that bad or is he that good?

4:44	Jay Jaffe: Yes

4:44	KC Pain: Can Trout get hot for a month and be traded? Or is he forever in purgatory?

4:47	Matt Martell: I really don’t see Arte Moreno trading the only player worth coming to the ballpark to see.

4:44	Appa Yip Yip: Why do players accept so much deferred money? It seems all upside for the team, what’s in it for the player?

4:45	Jay Jaffe: a guaranteed income after your playing career is over, and lower taxes.

4:44	Dan Szymborski: The Dodgers are basically getting to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars at a lower interest rate than the current federal discount rate

4:44	Guest: I just think these deferred contracts are ways to circumvent the cbt. The dogers wouldnt have signed ohtani or smith if they couldnt have deferred the $

4:46

Jay Jaffe: You think the owners didn’t design it that way? They know exactly what they’re doing with the CBA.

This quote from a recent Athletic interview with Collin McHugh stands out:

I’ll say it straight to Rob Manfred’s face: They’re better at finding loopholes in the system because that is their job, to maximize profit for his constituency, which is 30 billionaire owners, who own extremely valuable franchises. And they’re trying to squeeze and eke every dollar out of it that they can.

https://theathletic.com/5363934/2024/03/23/mlb-players-association-unr…

4:45	Matt Martell: If you picked Nick Ahmed to drive in the Giants’ first run of the year, step right up to claim your prize!

4:45	Dan Szymborski: They wouldn’t have signed him for a contract with THAT bottom line number.

4:45	Dan Szymborski: It would just be a different contract with a different total figure in nominal dollars

4:45	sliptoad: in honor of seeing the chas chomp for the first time this year, any of y’all have a favorite chant or crowd bit for a non-star player?

4:46	Davy Andrews: Given my hometown, I’m partial to Michael Morse’s “Take On Me” singalong and Parra’s Baby Shark bit.

4:45	Matt Martell: Two innings, two inning-ending double plays. Yankees baseball is so back, baby!

4:46	SucramRenrut: Well, I feel like a genius for not starting Cortes against that HOU juggernaut. All thanks to the handedness line-up tool Jason posted today!

4:46	Appa Yip Yip: It would be so hype if the blue jays got a base runner in this game

4:46	Dan Szymborski: Frigging Sony put Tony Tarasco in MLB the Show this year just so you could replay the Jeffrey Maier moment, which is super cruel

4:47	Well-Beered Englishman: Dang, this MASN booth is in late July form already. Out of context phrase: “you didn’t do curling in Vietnam?”

4:47	Dan Szymborski: Dangit, I admit at 7-1 I’ve moved on to other games

4:47

Guest: Will Smith getting 10/140 … Mauer and Posey topped out at 8/184 and 9/167. Realmuto was 5/115 … why is it that top tier catchers, which are harder to come by than most positions, are seemingly paid less than other star players? Less games played? If Rutschman hits FA, will he break $200 million finally?

4:47	Dan Szymborski: Their knees go

4:47	J: The Nationals are gonna lose quite a lot of games this year. Stinks that Josiah Gray is just never going to figure it out with that org.

4:48	Dan Szymborski: And while you can move your star SS to 2B or 3B, more often than not, a really good catcher just gets to be a mediocre 1B

4:49	Jay Jaffe: I think Smith is going to have to wind up in LF or something unless he can wait out Freeman’s contract. We know he won’t be DHing much in the next decade.

4:48	Deferred income: Millions of Americans defer income they don’t need to spend every month in a 401k. There’s nothing sinister about it.

4:48	Guest: Or perhaps another team would have signed him

4:49	5 Run Homer: Royce Lewis (2-for-2, HR, pulled from the game with a leg injury) is in peak form

4:49	Davy Andrews: No no no.

4:50	Jay Jaffe: FFS

4:50	Dan Szymborski: I think we should peer pressure you into making a song for every player on the Twins 40-man roster

4:52	Davy Andrews: I mean, I would love to do that.

4:50	Davy Andrews: “If you don’t feel bad for this guy, I don’t know what’s wrong with you.” – MLB Network just now.

4:50	Only Fan(atic)s: They made the pants super see through to encourage cup wearing

4:51	Davy Andrews: This might actually be genious?

4:51	Appa Yip Yip: It’s kind of the same reason there are fewer catchers in the hall, right? Guys just age too quickly to build up the resume.

4:52	Jay Jaffe: No, I think it’s just that too many voters try to evaluate them as if their offense can be directly compared to 1Bs. See my rant about the BBWAA voters’ failure to elect catchers on the first ballot. Joe Mauer was just the third, after Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez.

4:53	Dan Szymborski: I was even slower with a cup so I did not wear one. At the time you were only required to wear it for football and lacrosse

4:55	Matt Martell: I still play baseball and am a catcher. I don’t wear a cup. Don’t try this at home.

4:53	Corioles Effect: 11 Ks for Burns thus far

4:53	5 Run Homer: Springer Dinger!

4:53	Appa Yip Yip: Springer Dinger

4:53	Jay Jaffe: Appa Yip Yip, you do have a point about catchers aging — we don’t get 500-HR or 3000-hit catchers — but it’s more the cross-positional comparisons that are the problem.

4:54	Dan Szymborski: Betts hit one

4:54	Jay Jaffe: and there’s a Mookie Betts homer. Damn, that guy can play.

4:56	Dan Szymborski: and Freeman

4:56	Matt Martell: And there’s Freeman

4:56	Matt Martell: The top 3 Dodgers hitters have scored all 5 of their runs today

4:56	Smiling Politely: Did Miles Mikolas describe the StL Cardinals as a bunch of “midwestern farmers” going after the “checkbook” Dodgers? I missed goofy baseball quotes.

4:57	MT_LAD_FAN: Guggenheim “checkbook baseball” looking alright against Mikolas so far

4:57	Dan Szymborski: “Miles” Mikolas is right

4:57	Jay Jaffe: LOL

4:57	Jay Jaffe: Mikolas’ farm has a gopher problem

4:58	Zach: Will it go down as the best top 3 in history?

4:58	KC Pain: Dodgers go get Trout. Make Angels cry

5:00	RTJ: Is it just me or is there a lot of offense already!

5:00	the gopher problem: Mikolas with $83m in career earnings, just like most midwest farmers

5:01	KC Pain: Javy Baez w a hit and a steal!

5:02	Nat: Agribusiness is big business.

5:02	Tim L: Miles Mikolas is baseball for Kirk Cousins

5:03	MT_LAD_FAN: Try farming in Montana compared to Missouri… and yes, $83 million would buy our family farm more than 10 times over…

5:03	bringbackpologrounds: How does Yamamoto compare to Darvish at their debuts? If He has a similar career to Darvish, does that meet expectations?

5:05	Jay Jaffe: Darvish gave up 5 runs in his MLB debut (5.2 IP though) and finished his first season with a 3.90 ERA (but a 3.28 FIP and 221 strikeouts). Yamamoto projects to be a bit better than that ERA-wise (3.78 via Depth Charts projex), but even a season like Yu’s first is no small accomplishment.

5:03	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: Javy Baez still exists?

5:03	J: MLB home run leader Nick Martini!

5:03	Davy Andrews: National League MVP frontrunner Nick Martini.

5:04	Dan Szymborski:

5:04	Dan Szymborski: 8-1 Orioles, Mountcastle

5:04	Black and Orange: Kirk Cousins is a much more midwestern name than Mikolas, imo

5:06	Jay Jaffe: Bengals get the first touchdown to take the lead on the Washington Commanders

5:07	jj: Glasnow pitching to the score like the great pitcher he is

5:07	Matt Martell: Infield single Giancarlo Stanton!

5:08	RTJ: If nike made FanGraphs personalized Baseball cleats, what would they look like for each of you?

5:08	Jay Jaffe: the swooshes would look like mustaches?

5:08	Dan Szymborski: I’d have Bayes’ theorem on them

5:08	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: You just gotta say it Mickolas, and it sounds plenty midwestern

5:09	Dan Szymborski: Said that way, Miles Mickolas definitely sounds like a Hogwarts teacher

5:09	Mason Saunders: Madison Bumgarner still the OG grumpy baseball farmer

5:09	KC Pain: Worse offensive division AL Central? Tigers/Royals/Guardians/WSox are all pretty bad. Twins only decent one of bunch

5:09	Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think the Twins are that much better than the Guardians

5:10	Jay Jaffe: I’d chew a limb off before I’d watch those offenses on the regular

5:10	Tim L: Logan Webb is doing Logan Webb things

5:11	Black and Orange: wouldn’t the OG grumpy baseball farmer have to be Ty Cobb or someone similarly old?

5:11	Jay Jaffe: Mordecai Three Finger Brown

5:12

Jay Jaffe: from his HOF bio: “Brown’s life changed when – as a five year old – he got his right index finger caught in a machine designed to separate grain from stalks and husks. The digit was sliced off, leaving only a stump. The next year, Brown damaged the hand again in a fall – breaking the remaining fingers. The bones healed, but the fingers were left at permanently odd angles.”

5:12	Jay Jaffe: Beat that, Mikolas!

5:12	Dan Szymborski: Sometimes it feels like half of the people in early baseball had an existing injury from farming or industrial work

5:12	RTJ: People used to be so creative with Nicknames. Three Finger Brown!

5:12	Dan Szymborski: He’d just be Mordy today

5:13	Jay Jaffe: Brownie

5:13	Davy Andrews: Three DPs in four innings for the Yankees.

5:13	Matt Martell: Nature is healing!

5:13	KC Pain: @Dan okay ….DARSH 😋😋😋. I agree though. Awful offenses everyone hoping to win 3-2

5:13	Guest: Valdez must have the sinker today.

5:14	bosoxforlife: Alex Verdugo doing what he does best. Quashing a rally by his own team

5:15	Jay Jaffe: Showing up late at the ballpark and pissing off his manager and teammates?

5:15	5 Run Homer: I mean, calling a guy with three fingers “Three-Finger” isn’t super creative

5:15	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: Darvish’s arsenal is proof that God exists, and he loves baseball.

5:16	Davy Andrews: Hard to argue with this.

5:16	HappyFunBall: With two home runs already today, and injuries all over the reds roster, how many home runs does Nick martini end the season with?

5:16	Davy Andrews: Well over 300.

5:16	Jay Jaffe: 324

5:16	Mike: Lewis, right quad, so it’s not the knee……

5:17	J: Martini already has 40% of his Steamer-predicted homers this year. Analytics in shambles!

5:18	CET: More likely cy young winner Burnes or Gausman?

5:18	Wrights_Back: On the deferment and time value of money question, is there an official “discount rate” or “Yield curve” which is used when determining an AAV? I mean, 10 years at 10% is a lot different than 10 yrs at 5%.

5:18	Davy Andrews: Somebody get Jon Becker in this chat.

5:18	Jay Jaffe: So I’ve got the Dodgers-Cardinals on the TV and four games going on the MLB.tv brower. I notice that the Yankees-Astros game is the Free Game of the Day so I move to swap it in… but of course the blackout rules preempt that. Never change, MLB.

5:19	KC Pain: Lewis is hurt?!?!

5:19	Kaufmann Stadium: It looks great, and I know from experience it’s a fine place to watch a game. There’s no way they should leave this place.

5:19	Matt Martell: Edouard Julien base hit off a lefty. I think he’s gonna rule again! @Davy

5:20	Davy Andrews: Yes! More Julien!

5:19

Jay Jaffe: Regarding the deferments, Ben Clemens covered this regarding Ohtani’s deal:

The 4.43% is the yearly discount rate, which is the Imputed Loan Interest Rate (ILIR) referred to in Article XXIII(6)(c). The ILIR is synonymous with the federal midterm rate, and the CBA calls for using the federal midterm rate reported by Internal Revenue Service for the October prior to the contract year (i.e., October 2023 in this case); since we have no ILIR data beyond October 2023, the league uses that rate for the entirety of the contract. The 4.43% is a yearly rate, which as such is applied to each successive year, or put another way, 10 times.

5:20	Jay Jaffe: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohani-is-deferring-97-of-his-contra…

5:20	Jay Jaffe: in other words, it’s set out in the CBA

5:20	jj: VSII ready to run

5:21	Davy Andrews: And…there he goes.

5:21	5 Run Homer: The long-foretold Cavan Biggio breakout season begins

5:21	Appa Yip Yip: The number of times I have written Cavan Biggio off and then written him back in based on one swing.

5:21	Davy Andrews: VLADITO!

5:21	Dan Szymborski: Vladito had a BRUTAL no doubter out to center

5:22	J: Edouard Julien When You Gonna Rule Again has legitimately been stuck in my head once a week since that article

5:22	Jay Jaffe: That’s our resident rock star, Davy Andrews! Davy, when are the Subway Ghosts gonna play out again?

5:22	Matt Martell: SAME

5:22	Davy Andrews: It’ll be a couple months. We’re working on an EP at the moment.

5:22	RTJ: that Vlad HR was prettty far

5:22	5 Run Homer: Vladdy 🙂

5:22	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’ve been linking it; it’s very catchy

5:23	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: Yow… That Vladdy G bomb was measured in kiloton range

5:23	Appa Yip Yip: 450 ft to center for vlad

5:23	Jay Jaffe:

5:25	Davy Andrews: Fun fact: When I play it now, I add a couple bars of “O Canada” as a bridge.

5:25	Jay Jaffe: Looking forward to that EP, then.

5:26	Cap: I don’t think the Angels are gonna come back today y’all

5:26	Black and Orange: how far was vladito in meters? he plays in Canada after all

5:27	Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Genius commercial by MLB, have all your favorite stars tell you “Opening Day is exciting” in their least exciting voice possible

5:28	Kvn: 50 degrees in Baltimore and they’re still spraying water on people love it

5:29	Moonlight Graham: Crochet 6 IP . Pretty good first start

5:30

Jay Jaffe: 6 innings, 1 run, 8 K. As noted in my roundup of Opening Day pitchers, he’s just the third pos-WW2 pitcher to make his first career start on Opening Day, after Fernando Valenzuela (1981) and Tanner Scheppers (2014). h/t Sarah Langs on that one https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-opening-day-slate-short-of-familiar-nam…

5:29	Matt Martell: Juan Soto RBI single. Aaron Judge coming up with the bases loaded and nobody out in a 4-1 game.

5:29	Dan Szymborski: Just call Eflin Elfin because he’s getting killed like he’s a son of Fëanor

5:30	5 Run Homer: 450 feet is 137 metres, though as a Canadian metres mean just about nothing to me

5:31	Jay Jaffe: I think this means they get an extra rouge.

5:34	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: Anything more Anthony Rizzo than a HBP for the RBI?

5:35	Jay Jaffe: Ouch. Is it any wonder he has so much trouble staying healthy?

5:36	Guest: “Nothing’s more American than grabbing a hot dog, heading to FanGraphs to watch the games and talk to Jay and Dan” (Will Ferrell)

5:36	Jay Jaffe: That would be a blast

5:38	J: From 2013-2021, Rizzo played at least 140 games in every non-pandemic shortened year, and he basically only ever missed time for a recurring back injury. Played 130 in 2022 too. He really does not have trouble staying healthy at all for someone who gets hit so much.

5:39	Jay Jaffe: 130 in 2022 and 99 in ’23 — that’s a lot of missed time, not that it’s all attributable to HBPs. I was referring more to the fact that he’s a guy who plays through a lot of of minor nagging things (back, esp) and his production tends to suffer for stretches

5:40	Steve: Mookie at short still a good idea?

5:40	Davy Andrews: I mean, from the beginning, nobody was arguing that it was a best case scenario.

5:40	SucramRenrut: I suggest a poll to see how many/what percentage of Canadians are in the chat.

5:41	Davy Andrews: Are You Canadian? Yes (18.1% \| 6 votes) No (63.6% \| 21 votes) I am, in fact, Edouard Julien. So yes. (18.1% \| 6 votes) Total Votes: 33

5:42	KC Pain: Trout only Angel with a hit.Urias only Oriole without one

5:42	Davy Andrews: On. the. nose.

5:42	Jay Jaffe: Re: Mookie, I think it gets them to the deadline when they trade for, like, Jorge Mateo or somebody

5:43	Davy Andrews: That arm from Kiermaier.

5:43	McGraw45: I am Canadien

5:43	Smiling Politely: Il y a beaucoup des Juliens

5:43	Appa Yip Yip: Regardless of how many Canadians are here I do think it is largely discounted south of the border how absolutely rabid Jays fans are and how completely the country goes full bird mode when the team is good.

5:45	Davy Andrews: Surprising number of Juliens in the chat today.

5:45	Édouard Julien: nous sommes légion

5:49	Edouard Julien: On régnera à nouveau

5:49	Lou Purltzman: Edouard Julien doesn’t seem to speak very good French

5:49	Édouard Julien: Je suis Spartacus !

5:50	McGraw45: Is it weird to anyone else that a team with Tatis, Boegarts and Machado bats Cronenworth third?

5:51	Jay Jaffe: He’s a first baseman, gotta bat him third! or fourth! Mike Shildt’s gonna be Manager of the Year again.

5:53	daddyvladdy: To be fair…aren’t 1,2,4 consdered to be the optimal spots for your 3 best hitters?

5:57	Jay Jaffe: The Book had the #4 hitter more important than #3 but that was done like 15 years ago, and I seem to recall other studies downplaying the #4, so… I think in general you want your best hitters to bat the most and if Cronenworth is one for the Padres…. <glances at roster> woof.

5:58	Victor Scott: Am I Billy Hamilton?

5:59	Davy Andrews: No. We’ve got a 40 / 50 hit tool on him.

5:59	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: That Yankees powerhouse lineup has scored half it’s runs today without lifting a bat. #baseball

6:00	guest: can you guys pray to the baseball gods that Royce is ok and allow him to rake for 75-80% of a season

6:01	5 Run Homer: Is Trevor Richards the best gray-haired player in baseball? I’m asking this without being able to think of another one

6:01	Davy Andrews: This is a great question.

6:01	The 6ix: Percentage chance that this is the year Rays magic disappears?

6:01	Dan Szymborski: back, sorry, had a bathroom break

6:03	5 Run Homer: Immediately weirded out by Ryan Pressly starting the 7th inning

6:03	Davy Andrews: Imagine how the other 29 teams feel.

6:03	Sad Angels Fan: Let’s just pretend the regular season starts tomorrow instead of today

6:03	B’Ryce Hammer, Destroyer of Baseballs: Woah, Shelby Miller is pitching for Detroit? I feel old.

6:03	Dan Szymborski: He’s actually not terrible now!

6:04	bosoxforlife: Does anybody want to switch their AL Cy Young prediction to Tarik Skubal? The Tigers are sending out quite a few hints that they are ready to win the division.

6:04	Jay Jaffe: Flipped over to the Yankees game just in time to see Aaron Judge double

6:04	Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly one of my picks, though I picked Burnes

6:05	Dan Szymborski: Given the BBWAA’s mixed language on gambling stuff, I’m not doing any prop bets this year

6:05	Jay Jaffe: Skubal has my attention, if nothing else.

6:05	Dan Szymborski: (And I never do NL award prop bets since I may vote)

6:07	Dan Szymborski: For those not watching that game, Nats got on the scoreboard with a Rosario homer off Pagan

6:07	5 Run Homer: When are award voting assignments handed out?

6:07	Dan Szymborski: You’re usually told if you have a vote on something in early september

6:07	ScottPH: On the topic of money: How much does insurance come into consideration when an owner refuses to sign a pitcher to a long term contract? I mean, it’s gotta be harder to get Lloyds to insure that, right?

6:07	Dan Szymborski: It’s gotten really hard to get insurance on athletes

6:08	Nat: Re gray hair: Chris Martin looking silver foxy recently

6:09	Appa Yip Yip: If the blue jays want to remember how to score runs I could get behind that for them

6:09	Davy Andrews: Wow, did Michael A. Taylor shave his head?

6:10	Matt Martell: 17 of the Yankees’ 33 batters today have reached base. Lots of walks

6:10	Mike: Kepler out, Wallner in…..Twins dropping like flies.

6:15

Matt Martell: I’ll never forget covering a Cubs-Twins series at Wrigley during a brutal heat wave. So many Minnesota players left the game due to heat illness or cramping that Willians Astudillo made his MLB debut in left field and then moved over to center, before starting the next game at third. Was awful for the players, but it was a joy to see La Tortuga roam the outfield.

6:13	HappyFunBall: I will never get tired of seeing Aaron Judge walk through the dugout looking like a highschooler coaching little league

6:13	Jay Jaffe: Yankees have come back from a 4-0 deficit to lead 5-4. eight walks today!

6:14	RTJ: speaking of Verdugo, who’s the best baseball player to play on both the Red Sox and Yankees in their career – not counting Babe Ruth?

6:14	Jay Jaffe: Probably Roger Clemens or Rickey Henderson.

6:14	Nat: clemens

6:15	Nat: boggs

6:16	Dan Szymborski: Boggs is up there, Ruffin and Pennock and Cone

6:16	Dan Szymborski: Who’s the best player who ONLY played for both? Ellsbury?

6:19	Matt Martell: Elston Howard?

6:16	MT_LAD_FAN: Not the best, but Johny Damon had some solid years

6:16	Black and Orange: Clemens has to be up there for best yankees/sox crossover non-ruth

6:17	B’ryce Hammer Destroyer of Baseballs: no Johny Damon Love?

6:17	B’ryce Hammer Destroyer of Baseballs: Who the F is Jason Foley?

6:17	Dan Szymborski: He makes sound effects for movie and television productions

6:17	jj: Anyone understand why Singleton is on the ‘Stros?

6:18	Davy Andrews: Oh wow, I hadn’t looked up his numbers until now.

6:18	Dan Szymborski: I had assumed that Dusty liked him but not sure now

6:18	norm: Jason Foley is underrated

6:18	Dan Szymborski: Is “Michael Conforto and the Giants” really a great production sizzle sentence?

6:19	Dan Szymborski: “Come see Adam Duvall and the Braves for a three-game series!”

6:19	bosoxforlife: Jason Foley played college ball at Sacred Heart. Last season the Tigers rostered 2 players from Sacred Heart, a tiny school in Fairfield, CT. Nick Short was the other one.

6:19	Smiling Politely: The Dodger game is at the point where Orel is telling stories about the kinds of free meals Tommy Lasorda would get when he was in StL (he and Davis are so much fun regardless of the score/opponent)

6:20	norm: Tigers using shots of Gio Urshela staring down the camera for their commecial bumpers has to be worse than Conforto and the Giants

6:21	Jay Jaffe: Nothing against Urshela or Conforto but damn, this is bleak and misguided. Both teams have more exciting players to focus on.

6:21	HappyFunBall: Singleton is on the Astros because their other 1B options to Abreu are two catchers and Yordan Alvarez and I guess they’d rather put up an 0-fer than play any of those guys in the field

6:23	RTJ: OK but you can’t pick more than 1! That’s cheating

6:24	Jay Jaffe: Clemens is the clear answer if you’re going by WAR. Rickey is a fun curveball because few people think of him as being a member of either of those teams (he only played 72 games for Boston, at age 43).

6:26	Davy Andrews: Oneil Cruz with a homer!

6:26	Davy Andrews: Opposite field in Miami.

6:27	Matt Martell: Tied the game, too!

6:27	Davy Andrews: If you’re into that kind of thing, I guess.

6:27	jj: That’s why Cronenworth bats 3r

6:29	Jay Jaffe: Ever since Andy McCullough wrote a piece for The Athletic about “The Crone Zone” in 2020 — edited by my wife — I have been unable to decouple that phrase with any mention of him.

6:27	HappyFunBall: Nick Senzel broke his thumb today in warm ups. Dude was Royce Lewis before Royce Lewis was cool…

6:27	Davy Andrews: Oh no, I didn’t know that.

6:29	jj: Goldie with his and the Cards 3rd hit of the day

6:30	Davy Andrews: Went to Driveline this offseason, and you’d have to see him as a bounceback candidate regardless.

6:30	Fenix: This has probably been sent to you a million times already today. But surely somebody has to rescue Trout from Anaheim already

6:30	Jay Jaffe: He’s said he doesn’t want a trade, whaddaya gonna do?

6:30	Chuck: Foley with an opening day save. Any thoughts on why Lange wasn’t used?

6:31	Jay Jaffe: OK folks, I’ve got to get on my merry way and make dinner. Great to spend Opening Day talking baseball with folks here. You’re in good hands with the rest of this crew and then the next wave at 7:30

6:31	KC Pain: @Fenix Snake Pilisken

6:32	Nat: giants are teetering

6:32	Davy Andrews: The more gigantic they are…

6:32	bosoxforlife: O’Neil Cruz hitting a home run doesn’t surprise me, the fact that he hit it off Sixto Sanchez, yes that Sixto Sanchez, surprises me.

6:32	Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

6:39	Matt Martell: DATT. MAMON

6:32	Davy Andrews: Well, it’s officially a chat.

6:32	Appa Yip Yip: Do you think Trout is suffering from the sink cost fallacy?

6:33	Davy Andrews: I’m not familiar with this one, but maybe that’s because I rent instead of owning.

6:33	baseball: opening day is, in a word, “exciting”

6:33	Davy Andrews: Baseball has weighed in.

6:33	norm: Lange wasn’t used because he is a walk machine.

6:33	WanderingWinder: Am I the only one who feels like there have been extra defensive miscues to start the season? Perception bias?

6:33	jj: Dodgers treating this like a ST game and getting everyone an AB

6:34	If the Richard Fitts: Why no Moniak vs RHP? Are the Angels really going to play old man Hicks over the pedigree’d youngster? And I thought it couldn’t get worse for Angels fans. Is Moniak hurt?

6:35	Davy Andrews: Per Rotowire: Moniak is out of the lineup for Thursday’s season opener in Baltimore. Even with the Orioles throwing right-hander Corbin Burnes, it will be Aaron Hicks in right field over Moniak. It would not seem to bode well for Moniak’s chances at carving out regular playing time.

6:35	bosoxforlife: Exciting is right!! I am already trying to figure out when dinner is going to be fitted in.

6:35	Kvn: Does Moniak still qualify as “pedigreed”?

6:36	David: It’s a little early to be trying to break a bat over your Leg Machado. And extremely early to fail at breaking a bat over your leg.

6:36	Bow: Yarbrough with the ol’ 3 inning save as well.

6:37	Victor Mature: I am being stung by hornets!

6:37	Davy Andrews: Sorry dude, that sounds rough.

6:37	Black and Orange: Logan Webb getting the Matt Cain treatment, just like most of last year

6:37	RTJ: what are the chances that Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman bat 1,2,3 at the all star game this year?

6:38	Davy Andrews: Real great reward for whoever starts for the AL.

6:38	Dan Szymborski: It’s not inconceivable!

6:38	Dan Szymborski: They’re all good shots to win the voting

6:40	David: Maybe the AL “starter” can choose to go second

6:40	Uh Ur: Bad sign that Espada did not bring in higher leverage reliever in the 5th when the bases were loaded?

6:41	Davy Andrews: I hear you, but I think they’ve been pretty clear that they like their big three in the seventh, eighth, and ninth when possible.

6:41	Dan: Sink cost is when you buy a really nice sink and you keep paying a plumber because it’s too expensive to throw out even though it’s no longer a nice sink.

6:42	bosoxforlife: Barring injury I would say that Betts. Ohtani and Freeman are virtual locks.

6:42	5 Run Homer: The Amed Rosario Rays Breakout is off to a good start

6:43	Davy Andrews: As it was foretold.

6:43	sliptoad: josh hader starts out his astros career striking out stanton on three pitches

6:44	Mr. Fister: Was earlier today the last time the Royals will be .500 or better this season. I think it might have been.

6:44	bosoxforlife: Baseball games are not always decided in the last few innings. The best use of the second best reliever is as a fireman in a high leverage situation regardless of the inning.

6:46	Sandwich: Maikel Garcia is the the best baseball player ever?

6:46	Nat: Conforto says NOT YET

6:47	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: I’m sad that my brother in quads, Spencer Strider, doesn’t get to pitch today.

6:47	Davy Andrews: Speaking of which.

6:47	Death, taxes,…….: ….and Royce Lewis already being hurt on opening day.

6:48	Dan Szymborski: Padres hold off Giants, so we’re down to two games

6:48	Dan Szymborski: (Pirates/Marlins and Yankees/Astros)

6:50	Dan Szymborski: Torres made a bad throw even for being flat on your back. Two on for Astros

6:50	KC Pain: D. Lesko + A Vaughn for Gorman in dynasty?

6:50	Dan Szymborski: Meh

6:51	Matt Martell: Feels like this is abut to be an Astros walkoff

6:51	Dan Szymborski: Bang bang play at the plate and Dubon out!

6:52	Matt Martell: Probably going to be reviewed. Nice slide by Dubon. Not sure if Trevino tagged him

6:52	Davy Andrews: This is why you sign Juan Soto. For the defense.

6:52

RTJ: SOTO

6:53	Dan Szymborski: Hard to overturn it since the angles we’ve seen are meh

6:53

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: With the Angels and Trout’s performance I propose a new stat: Thunderstomp To Nowhere or TTN, which represents an 8 WAR, 40 HR season with less than a 1.5 RBI:HR ratio on a team that missed the playoffs. One guy providing massive value, with little team support, for a team that ended up going Nowhere. example that was Troy Glaus’ 2000? 47 HR, 102 RBI, 1.008 OPS, 8.2 WAR, team record of 82-80.

6:54	Matt Martell: I love this! So specific and beautiful

6:53	Matt Martell: I don’t think he tagged him, but the angles are bad and it’s hard to tell for sure

6:54	Dan Szymborski: upheld so two outs

6:54	SucramRenrut: Are those sweat or rain stains on the grey Yankees jerseys? Either way, not a great look as a pile-on to Jersey-gate. Are we saying that yet?

6:54	Phil: May I complain about the Red Sox having their “opening day” at 10:00 at night (Boston time)? This really doesn’t seem very celebratory to me (and yeah, feel free to joke about what’s to celebrate this year etc.).

6:56	bosoxforlife: Nice shot of the players reaction instead of focusing on the umpire.

6:57	Black and Orange: Manfred Man appears on opening day

6:57	Nat: hopefully pirates and marlins will keep us going until the cubs game starts

6:57	Davy Andrews: Does anybody else think it’s weird that the ball person in Miami is just in shorts and a t-shirt?

6:58	Dan Szymborski: Feels very FLorida

6:58	Dan Szymborski: There was some real greed there

6:58	Matt Martell: SLOPPY BASEBALL IN MIAMI

6:58	RTJ: oh my god these teams are not good

6:58	5 Run Homer: Oh no Henry Davis

6:59	Dan Szymborski: You basically can’t do that play above little league

6:59	bosoxforlife: Josh Bell definitely not doing his Keith Hernandez imitation.

6:59	David: Oh, the ghost runner is a thing.

6:59	Matt Martell: Third base coach sent him. Woof

6:59	Black and Orange: PICKLE? it looked like a pickle on the mlb pin-movers

6:59	Dan Szymborski: WTF was rabelo doing

7:00	Matt Martell: He wanted to set up the Michael A. Taylor Game, duh!

7:00	Dan Szymborski: Davis was like three steps from third by the time Bell was throwing

7:01	5 Run Homer: Even Davis didn’t look sure about that send

7:01	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Thunderstomps To Nowhere: 40+ HR, 8+ WAR, less than 2.5 RBI:HR ratio, team misses the playoffs. Mike Trout has two, Troy Glaus (another Angel) has one from 2000, Alex Rodriguez has one from 2005. With a healthy season Trout could have as many TTN’s as MVP’s.

7:03	Matt Martell: Thank you for your service, Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs!

7:04	5 Run Homer: This is not the best infield defence I’ve ever seen

7:04	Davy Andrews: But it is some of the tallest.

7:05	Black and Orange: If you got to choose your Manfred Man, who would be the player in the league least likely to get picked? is is pure sprint speed or does baseruns capture that better?

7:06	Davy Andrews: In that case, I think you’re just trying to avoid the absolute slowest person, so…maybe Salvy?

7:08	Matt Martell: Giancarlo Stanton is a close second I think

7:09	David: Ty France deserves a mention, my god he looked so slow last year.

7:09	Davy Andrews: I know he was dealing with an injury, though I don’t recall whether it was one that would affect his footspeed.

7:09	Davy Andrews: Wow, defensive wizard Josh Bell.

7:12	RTJ: are we as mad about this review as the Miami color commentator?

7:14	Matt Martell: Maybe if it were overturned, but he was mad at the audacity of the Pirates for even challenging the call!

7:12	Sad Angels Fan: This blocking the plate rule is gonna be a pain in the ass this whole year isn’t it

7:12	Nat: I kinda like that for a catcher: he prevents thefts

7:12	Nat: so the Marlins are wearing ADT patches this year, I guess

7:15	Davy Andrews: To the bottom of the eleventh inning we go!

7:15	KC Pain: Bo Naylor not starting tonight 🙄

7:17	RTJ: more like No Baylor, amirite? [pause for laughter]

7:19	Davy Andrews: Twelve!

7:19	Brian: Cerci blew up the sept of Baylor years ago!

7:19	Davy Andrews: That’s what you get for hitting the ball to Hayes.

7:20	Brian: Lefty pitcher KC… Bo is always going to split time with Hedges for some reason!?!?!?

7:20	Dan Szymborski: It’s an unusual platoon of happiness/despair

7:20	Farhandrew Zaidman: Glasnow didn’t throw many sinkers, but the ones he did looked good! Just one more weapon against righties for him.

7:22	KC Pain: @RTJ hits laugh track button I got you dawg

7:23	Sad Angels Fan: Do flyball-hitting teams perform better that groundball teams in extra innings with the Manfred runner because of more frequent sac-fly opportunities?

7:23	Dan Szymborski: I would think there are not enough games for that to be anything but noisy7

7:24	Davy Andrews: Fun Fact: Anything But Noisy is the name of Dan’s acoustic album.

7:24	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: As we go to the 12th inning in today’s Pirates vs Marlins game, let us remember the 16 inning marathon featuring the Blue Jays at Cleveland in 2012, the longest opening day game in history. With the Manfred runner we may never see that again.

7:24	Nat: Declan Cronin is a Marlin but i feel like that name could belong to a pirate. Also he’s dealing in relief

7:25	5 Run Homer: What on earth is going on with these infielders

7:25	Davy Andrews: Bizarre play all around. Davis doesn’t run, Anderson lobs it over, Bell casually comes off the bag. High stakes for that sort of thing.

7:27	Nat: BASEBALL

7:27	RTJ: it’s like every play has just a drop of chaos

7:27	Sad Angels Fan: What the heck is happening on the basepaths today

7:27	Davy Andrews: That makes three Pirates thrown out trying to score in three extra innings.

7:27	Hire Joe Morgan?: Why do you hate my favorite team? And why is my favorite team’s division going to be won by only X games?

7:28	Davy Andrews: It’s because we don’t like you personally. We know what you did, and we are not over it. Because numbers.

7:28	Matt Martell: I love poorly played baseball when the games are close

7:28	Dan Szymborski: I wish I had an acoustic album! I play piano and can’t song. I just make weird AI songs

7:28	Dan Szymborski: sing

7:29	Black and Orange: Dan made a point about a Little League play earlier- the teams read it and are leaning into the bit

7:29	Davy Andrews: I feel confident that the players are reading this chat on the in-dugout iPad.

7:29	Dan Szymborski: I am to singing as Austin Hedges is to hitting

7:29	HappyFunBall: Pirates think the Manfred Man is a bad idea and are determined to prove it

7:29	Ampersand: Treated myself to a fancyish dinner with the wife out of town but of course the bar is too fancy for tvs. Didn’t think ahead

7:30	Dan Szymborski: I spent like three hours the other day writing AI songs about Santa Claus having diarrhea

7:30	Jason: Cubs/Rangers is blacked out for me…in Las Vegas

7:30	Davy Andrews: Me too in New York.

7:30	RTJ: how often does Arraez go 0-6?

7:32	Davy Andrews: Per Stathead, Arraez had three career 0-6 games and two career 0-7 games entering today.

7:31	Dan Szymborski: I’m always annoyed that “less than two outs” is the standard part of the vernacular

7:32	Dan Szymborski: Third base score with less than two outs form last year is a real mash of team types and qualities

7:32

Dan Szymborski: Baltimore Orioles 56.9% Chicago Cubs 56.8% Kansas City Royals 56.0% Tampa Bay Rays 52.8% Houston Astros 52.5% Arizona Diamondbacks 52.4% Pittsburgh Pirates 51.8% Washington Nationals 51.7% Colorado Rockies 51.7% Texas Rangers 51.4% Boston Red Sox 51.3% Miami Marlins 51.0% Philadelphia Phillies 50.8% Cincinnati Reds 50.7% Cleveland Guardians 50.6% Atlanta Braves 50.3% League Average 50.1% Milwaukee Brewers 50.0% San Francisco Giants 49.3% San Diego Padres 49.2% Chicago White Sox 48.9% Los Angeles Angels 48.7% New York Yankees 48.6% St. Louis Cardinals 48.0% Los Angeles Dodgers 47.4% Toronto Blue Jays 47.3% Minnesota Twins 46.1% New York Mets 45.9% Detroit Tigers 45.6% Oakland Athletics 45.5% Seattle Mariners 41.7%

7:32	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: I wonder what the odds are that a team fails to score the Manfred runner for an entire season. Sounds like an interesting article, at least once we have a larger sample size.

7:33	Dan Szymborski: Sounds like a Ben piece!

7:33	Matt Martell: This game deserves to end with an out at the plate

7:35	Farhandrew Zaidman: Wanted to run a thought by you all re: free agents. What if instead of a “deadline,” teams are offered comp picks for early signings. Sign a player to a major league deal before 11/31? Get a 6th rounder. Sign two? Get a 5th rounder. Etc. Thoughts?

7:35	Davy Andrews: We did it, friends. We did it.

7:35	Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s much of an incentive

7:36	David Laurila: Greetings all. Cubs and defending World Series champs on deck.

7:36	Dan Szymborski: THe value of a fifth/sixth round pick is just so small on average compared to the possible cost of signing players quickly

7:37	Davy Andrews: Hello to my newest Twitter follower!

7:37	Dan Szymborski: Hi David!

7:38	Matt Martell: Welcome, David!

7:38	David Laurila: Lots of baseball watching today. It has been a good day.

7:38	Deion Sanders: We’ve seen NBA and NFL guys play pro baseball mid-career … when do we get an NHL guy over to baseball?

7:38	KC Pain: I think the ghost runner should be a random fan from the stands

7:38	Kyle Kishimoto: hi all!

7:38	Dan Szymborski: I’ve gotta go get dinner – Ben should be here shortly

7:38	Dan Szymborski: Hi and Bye Kyle!

7:39	Kyle Kishimoto: hi and bye dan!

7:39	Matt Martell: Kyle, sup! See ya, Dan!

7:39	Davy Andrews: Bye Dan! Hi Kyle!

7:40	Matt Martell: I think the zombie runner should be the bullpen catcher

7:41	Davy Andrews: Seconded!

7:41	Mike Oxbig: Much like the kickball days, they should be able to throw the baseball at a player for an out

7:41	Davy Andrews: That used to be legal back in the day. It was called soaking.

7:41	David Laurila: With a 12-inning game today, it bears noting that the KBO season started last week and they have had one 12-inning tie so far. I’d rather have that then the Manfred Man rule.

7:42	Nat: ooo i like the gold-trimmed unis for tx

7:44	Davy Andrews: I love the idea that the WS winner gets that special treat, but I wish I liked the actual look of the gold trim more than I do.

7:42	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Re: Arraez, as far as i can tell off the cuff, Tony Gwynn went hitless in 6+ at bats in his entire career. Just another crazy Tony Gwynn stat.

7:43	Davy Andrews: Stathead actually says Gwynn had three 0-for-6 games. Still pretty good.

7:43	Tim Tebow: Just 3 times regarding Tony

7:43	Davy Andrews: Tim Tebow confirms. His thighs have yet to weigh in.

7:43	Matt Martell: His thighs weigh a lot!

7:44	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Nothing compared to Spencer Strider. Mobile just keeps cutting them off 🙂

7:45	Matt Martell: Does Bellinger’s stance look different again? His back knee looks more bent and his shoulders look moved closed

7:45	David Laurila: I believe that New York Mets history includes three players with 0-for-10 games. I think the record for hitless at-bats in one game is 11.

7:47	Davy Andrews: Since I have this search page open, I can confirm that Tommie Agee, Wayne Garrett, and Ron Swoboda all went 0-for-10 with the Mets. If you bet against David Laurila being right, you’re a fool.

7:45	Farhandrew Zaidman: If it’s a day ending in Y, just go ahead and assume Belli’s changed his stance

7:45	Kyle Kishimoto: yea i think he looked a little more tightly wound

7:46	Matt Martell: Just like Tebow’s thunder thighs, am I right?!

7:47	Lou Reed: Did I just hear Nico doing an Expedia commercial?

7:48	Brian: Re: Hedges: I looked and I could not find a worse hitter season than Gallager had last year for Cleveland… I included pitchers.. min 100PA. CLE is the only place in baseball history that Hedges is an offensive upgrade.

7:48	Kyle Kishimoto: in the BP annual i had to write about all seven players who caught games for cleveland last year, it was not fun

7:48	David Laurila: “I’m Not Saying” was arguably Nico’s best single.

7:48	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: The last successful player I can recall who changed their stance (seemingly) as often as Belli was Cal Ripken, Jr. Hmmm.

7:48	Davy Andrews: Huge part of my childhood, watching Cal change his stance every four plate appearances.

7:49	Farhandrew Zaidman: y’all like Happ leading off?

7:50	Kyle Kishimoto: yes, ZiPS has him as the second highest OBP on the team to Suzuki, who makes more sense 2nd or 4th. he’s legit

7:50	Davy Andrews: I’m with Kyle here. Couple ISO over OBP guys in that lineup. Get Happ on base.

7:51	David Laurila: On the subject of stances. Nolan Schanuel has a fairly unique one — as well as a 30-game reaching base streak (and counting) to start his career. He drew a walk today.

7:52	Blackouts: Why is Cubs Rangers blacked out for me on MLB tv? I don’t live remotely close to either and Atlanta is the only team I should have a blackout on

7:52	Kyle Kishimoto: i’m also blacked out – pretty sure it’s b/c it’s on ESPN

7:52	KC Pain: Tigers should trade Manning to Orioles for a couple bats. Stowers and an IF? Seems like a good match

7:52	David Laurila: This would be interesting. Not a bad idea for either side.

7:52	Too Many Mooks: So what’s our favorite pitching performance so far today?

7:52	Kyle Kishimoto: i was very pleasantly surprised by crochet, i know he took the loss but was surprised he went 6 innings and almost 90 pitches

7:53	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Thank you all, FG staff, for another enjoyable chat. I’m a paid subscriber (totally worth it) and look forward to possibly becoming an article contributor one day.

7:53	Davy Andrews: I love that. Go for it.

7:54	Matt Martell: As long as your byline is Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs

7:54	Davy Andrews: Word.

7:53	Smiling Politely: Fave pitching: Glasnow. You can absolutely see him winning the Cy if he stays healthy.

7:53	Too Many Mooks: Nice to see Darvish Darvishing too!

7:54	Guest: Anyone have any info on if Bednar warmed up to come in the pit game? Looking at the box, i was thinking it’s weird he didn’t pitch in any of the 9th inning or later

7:54	David Laurila: Pirates broadcasters said he wasn’t healthy. Illness presumably (hopefully).

7:54	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Can’t get much better than Burnes vs the Angels. 11 strikeouts, no walks, only blemish being a solo homer to Trout? That’s a great day at the office.

7:54	Davy Andrews: Ok everybody, I’ve got to finish writing my article about the most exciting play in all of baseball. It was a pleasure chatting with you.

7:55	Kyle Kishimoto: gotta also give props to skubal, leading the field with 20 whiffs on only 83 pitches

7:55	NetflixnRichHill: Thanks for the Bednar info!

7:55	Kyle Kishimoto: bye davy!

7:55	Davy Andrews: Bye, friend!

7:56	David Laurila: Re: pitching performances today, Skubal was superb. Webb was also very good; the BABIP gods were cruel in the inning he gave up two runs,’

7:56	Too Many Mooks: Yeah even though it was the White Sox, Skubal damn impressive

7:58

Hendrik: Not sure if it’s actually new, but I like Bally keeping the count on the screen at all times rather than hiding it for the gun reading just after a pitch has been thrown. Instead they’re hiding what inning it is. As someone who doesn’t pay attention every second of every game, I’m much more likely to remember what inning it is than what the count was!

7:59	Matt Martell: Leadoff triple!

7:59	5 Run Homer: Morel is fun

8:00	David Laurila: With three west coast-time-zone-games on tap for tonight, it bears noting that two of them involve east coast teams. I’m not a fan of this. Opening-day games should be reasonably convenient for all fans to watch. They could have been played in late afternoon on west coast.

8:01	Ben Clemens: Hey David, hey everyone, just got to my computer to start chatting with you guys.

8:01	Kyle Kishimoto: hi ben!

8:02	Ben Clemens: wow packed house of chatters, I like it

8:02	Looking to the future already…: When can we expect an updated Guardians’ prospect list? Or are we out of prospects until the #1 pick is made?

8:02	David Laurila: I believe that a Guardians list is coming very soon.

8:02	David: It’d be a little rough for local seattlites to get to the stadium at a 4PM start

8:02	Kyle Kishimoto: it is unfortunate that teams have to make a tradeoff between making game times conducive to fans at the ballpark vs. tv viewers across the country

8:04	David: Totally agree, it’s never going to be perfect, other than maybe making opening days same(ish) timezone. That said I’m just happy the Mariners don’t risk a rainout for their first 6 series of the year.

8:04	David Laurila: I think teams should prioritize home fans the vast majority of time. Opening day should be an exception, to reasonably accommodate fans of both teams playing the game.

8:04	Jon Huntley: I’m sitting here in Boston waiting for a 10pm start. The things we do for the love of the game…

8:05	J: There’s no reason to have East coast teams playing West coast teams today in the first place. You can schedule it so no is more than 2 times zones apart.

8:05	Ben Clemens: I completely agree

8:05	David Laurila: I am in Boston and not planning to stay up for the game (or at least not much of it). That I got up at 5:30 this morning is a factor…

8:05	David: They definitely had an opportunity to have more than a single game at the 4 PDT / 7 EDT slot. Probably intentional to feature the Champs though.

8:06	Ben Clemens: maybe there needs to be ONE off-time-zone matchup, but they should just match em up

8:06	Smiling Politely: Ben! As a proud Midwestern Farmer, how do you feel about Miles Mikolas’s/Cards’ general outlook? The projections are rosier than I would have thought given the rotation, but maybe Goldschmidt is gonna go all late career bonkers on us

8:06	Ben Clemens: The pitchers are not good

8:06	Ben Clemens: but they’re hopefully not awful

8:06	Ben Clemens: so I feel okay! I love the young crop of position players

8:07	Ben Clemens: I see we’re getting irresponsible with our Wyatt Langford comparisons FAST. The broadcast just compared him to Trout, Bregman, Posey, and Goldschmidt

8:07	5 Run Homer: Langford’s arms are HUGE my goodness

8:08	UTIL: Oswaldo Cabrera becoming a thing would be a big development huh? Also can we start calling utility guys “everywhere man” instead?

8:08	Kyle Kishimoto: i really love players who can be everywhere men, rookie brendan donovan is one of my favorite seasons ever

8:10	Kyle Kishimoto: 128 wRC+, 50+ innings at six positions, what an awesome year

8:08	Ben Clemens: early career Matt Carpenter

8:09	Ben Clemens: the Cardinals seem to have a knack for developing these guys

8:10	Ampersand: Is the Bellinger re-signing bad for PCA or could it help by taking some pressure off? I was worried about his offense although not the D

8:11	Ben Clemens: I’ve been going back and forth on this one

8:11	David Laurila: I didn’t watch any of Card-Dodgers and just now saw that Goldschmidt had all three St. Louis hits. Yikes.

8:11	Ben Clemens: it was not good David

8:11	Ben Clemens: I think net good? big outfield

8:11	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Contrarian opinion regarding Langford: opening day is the day for optimism and hope for all fans and teams. Trevor Story was Alex Rodriguez for a month in April at one point. Let the comparisons fly and let’s enjoy the fact that baseball is back, baby!

8:11	Ben Clemens: Well that’s fair

8:11	Darb: Justin Steele going to maintain 18 k/9?

8:12	Kyle Kishimoto: nah, definitely gonna go up

8:13	David Laurila: Over/under on Strider’s K/9 this season? Maybe 14?

8:14	Ben Clemens: ohhhhh man. I’d say over, but that’s a good line

8:14	Kyle Kishimoto: i don’t care how reckless this prediction is, hammer the over for me

8:14

Phil: Ben, thanks for a great piece today, including the Suppan memory. That play is burned into my memory as well (I’m from Boston, and it sits next to a memory in which I almost caused a car crash but was saved by the quick instincts of the guy behind me–not joy so much as relief combined with the lingering stress of flirting with disaster).

8:15	Ben Clemens: thanks very much. It was a memorable night for everyone involved I guess

8:16	Ben Clemens: S-tier (the best) interview by Jung there

8:16	Wes: I want to be a grump about the in-game interviews, but when they get someone fun I just can’t be a grump about it

8:17	Kyle Kishimoto: i can appreciate josh jung while still being a grump about it

8:17	David Laurila: I’m with Kyle.

8:17	Ben Clemens: I completely agree. I’m against them on principle, but also I really liked that

8:18	Kyle Kishimoto: i feel like i’ve said this in a chat before but if i were a player or coach and was asked to give an interview during a non-exhibition game i would be belligerently angry

8:18	Jon Huntley: Seems like it’d be so difficult to stay focused and say anything meaningful

8:18	Jon Huntley: But I love them as a fan

8:19	Black and Orange: re: game scheduling. Is the whole AL west playing out of division today? I know there has to be at least one interleague game, but that is a choice that I would NOT have made

8:19	Kyle Kishimoto: yep, yankees/astros was the only one that was 1 time zone apart, the others are 2-3

8:19	David Laurila: On a related note, I’m a grump when it comes to guests in the broadcast booth, particularly when it results in little or no play-by-play. In a meaningless game with a lopsided score, sure. Otherwise, nah,

8:20	Ben Clemens: I was watching the O’s game, and then got in my car to drive somewhere so put it on the radio

8:20	Ben Clemens: somehow I caught TWO David Rubenstein interviews

8:20	Ben Clemens: let’s just say he’s still working on it

8:21	RTJ: I don’t like the concept of interviews but I guess if everyone on the field consents to it, sure let’s give it a go. I don’t imagine the players are given too much choice though

8:21	WanderingWinder: Rangers and Cubs are in the same time zone…

8:21	Kyle Kishimoto: my bad, for some reason i thought arlington was in the pacific time zone

8:21	Ben Clemens: Kyle we have to get you a map of the US haha

8:22	Kyle Kishimoto: i’ve been to the dallas area before! just brainfarted thinking all the west teams were pacific (except for houston, which i somehow got right on the first try)

8:22	J: Justin Steele is an ace, pass it on!

8:23	Ben Clemens: I think that this run has passed flash in the pan status by a good deal at this point

8:23	Shirtless George Brett: Watching Ragans pitch is a wild ride. He is so filthy but you also hold your breath as you expect his arm to blow out on every pitch.

8:23	Kyle Kishimoto: he throws incredibly hard but when i think of guys with super violent deliveries i don’t think of his

8:23	Jon Huntley: Ben, did Rubenstein say anything interesting?

8:24	Ben Clemens: I didn’t hang on every word but not really? Just that it feels a little surreal because he grew up a fan

8:25	Baseball!: Mason Miller’s delivery is violent…

8:25	Michael: Who is writing the Will Smith extension piece? Early impressions of the deal?

8:26	Ben Clemens: Jay is, for tomorrow. And my first impression is that we need a separate scale for catcher contracts, so I’m gonna have to build that for myself. They always seem like such bargains

8:25	David Laurila: Notable in today’s Orioles in-game booth interview was an Angels player getting jammed and flying weakly to right, and Rubenstein reacting with an “Uh oh” off the bat.

8:26	Ben Clemens:

8:26	Shirtless George Brett: Not so much Ragans’ delivery, more so his history of arm trouble.

8:26	Kyle Kishimoto: yep, i feel you there

8:26	Wes: Oh, absolutely. In an ideal world, there wouldn’t even be three-person booths. Give me a play-by-play person and a color analyst and that’s it

8:26	twilight zone: what would happen if this season K% dropped like 15% randomly league wide with no real explanation

8:27	Kyle Kishimoto: a 15% reduction from 2023 would bring the number down to 19.3%, or the lowest since 2011. we’d definitely be writing every day about potential causes lol

8:28	Ben Clemens: now imagine if it were 15 percentage points

8:28	Hendrik: David, Re: Guests in the booth, does that extend to Alex Speier appearances on NESN? I’ve always been a fan of that regular feature.

8:28	David Laurila: Alex’s appearances are relatively brief and insightful. Those are good things… and an anomaly.

8:29

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: In Kyle’s defense (my name is also Kyle, so I may be biased) the Pirates are actually farther east than the Braves, yet are in the central division instead of the east, so it’s quite plausible that the divisions have semi-brainwashed a lot of us into a weird alternate time zone universe. Except for when the Braves won the NL West division over the Giants, which sounds absurd today.

8:30	Kyle Kishimoto: the astros and rangers are the reason why 3 of the 4 teams with the most travel miles (korea-playing teams excluded) are in the ALW

8:29	Ben Clemens: Pittsburgh is one that gets me a lot. It’s just a lot farther east than sports would have you think

8:30	Ben Clemens: I was just saying (to Kyle) that there’s a whole time zone between Texas and Pacific

8:30	David Laurila: Speaking of Pittsburgh, I will be at PNC for three games in just over a week. Love that ballpark.

8:31	Phil: There’s a huge difference between having a local beat reporter in the booth, providing useful information, and just, like, a celebrity dropping by, which is pointless.

8:31	David Laurila: This is correct.

8:31	Too Many Mooks: Good time for Eovaldi’s second whiff there

8:31	Matt Martell: I stepped away for a bit to edit something. Back now to say that PNC is my favorite ballpark.

8:32	Royce Lewis Simp: Why do bad things happen to good people

8:32	Ben Clemens: ugh I haven’t read much about it but come on, this is too on the nose, baseball gods

8:33	Baseball!: what “here we go again” items have folks seen today? I have trout homering yet angels getting routed… and Royce homering then getting injured :(.

8:33	Ben Clemens: the Dodgers are good b/c Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman homered

8:34	David Laurila: On the subject of ballparks, my favorite spring training venue is Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, in north Scottsdale. The D-Backs and Rockies share it, and it is fantastic.

8:34	Shirtless George Brett: The Royals lost. Does that count?

8:36	Ben Clemens: Sorry, did you guys catch that Jeff Samardzija’s brother is named Sam?

8:36	Ben Clemens: Sam Samardzija, really??

8:37	Kyle Kishimoto: do you think sam was short for anything?

8:38	Ben Clemens: oh i looked it up, and he’s actually Sam Samardzija Jr.

8:38	Ben Clemens: worked so well the first time that they went back to the well

8:38	Too Many Mooks: Samardzija Samardzija

8:38	Matt Martell: I’m still reeling from the fact that Jeff was the Cubs’ last homegrown pitcher to make the All-Star team

8:39	Kyle Kishimoto: how in the world has hendricks never made an all star game

8:42	Matt Martell: No idea!

8:39	Ben Clemens: if anyone here is a Scrubs fan, “Turk Turkleton” is my favorite absolutely ridiculous name (it’s what Bob Kelso thought Turk’s name was)

8:39	RTJ: I would call him Samsam

8:39	Too Many Mooks: “And Mrs. Turkleton! The Turkletonssss!”

8:41	J: “Scrubs fan” – wow clearly Cards fan bias

8:41	Ben Clemens:

8:41	Matt Martell: HA

8:42	David Laurila: Josh Jung is good, which reminds of how last year I predicted that Triston Casas would win AL RoY and someone I know in the Rangers org proceeded to DM me to say the correct answer was Jung. That said, which of the two would you rather have going forward?

8:44	Ben Clemens: I think I’d take Jung because I would prefer a third baseman given what I’d consider similar offensive outlooks

8:44	Ben Clemens: close, though, I agree

8:43	Kyle Kishimoto: ooh that reminds me i need to check the staff predictions

8:43	Darb: justin steele was the last homegrown cubs pitcher to make the all star game

8:45	Matt Martell: Yes, I misspoke. Jeff was the last one before Steele, and Sammy Samz is Steele’s agent

8:43	justin steele: i’m a beast

8:43	Baseball!: Jung… I’m guessing he has another level now that he’s finally passed the injuries that messed up his entry to the league

8:45	Baseball!: Then again, Casas has high pants like Freddie, which might be a sign…

8:46	J: I know Hendricks isn’t home grown technically but kind of crazy he hasn’t made an all star game

8:46	Ben Clemens: yeah he has to be high up on the list of best pitchers never to make an ASG. Might be an article idea

8:47	Baseball!: Meanwhile Bryce elder has an ASG selection

8:48	Ben Clemens: Hey, every team has to have a representative

8:49	Baseball!: As a Braves fan… I was satisfied with the full infield making it

8:49	Jon Huntley: I love that Brock Holt was an all star

8:50	Ben Clemens: Jung can pick it, dang

8:50	Ben Clemens: that was nice

8:50	Matt Martell: Alrighty, that’s all from me tonight. Enjoy the rest of tonight’s action!

8:50	Kyle Kishimoto: bye matt!

8:50	Kyle Kishimoto: among pitchers with at least 200 starts and no all-star appearances, hendricks is second to john tudor in career ERA+!

8:50	David Laurila: Scott Cooper made consecutive All-Star teams with the Red Sox in the 1990s. He had a wRC+ under 100 both years.

8:50	Ben Clemens: cya later Matt, have a great night

8:51	Baseball!: Re: FanGraphs projections… who chose Gabriel Moreno for NL MVP. I’m not mad, but I want the story

8:51	Ben Clemens: I think you can check each person’s individual picks

8:51	Ben Clemens: I haven’t done that, but…. Meg

8:51	Kyle Kishimoto: eric picked moreno, he had a couple other interesting picks too

8:51	Ben Clemens: nope, Eric

8:51	Ben Clemens: yeah, spicy

8:52	David Laurila: Eric and I both picked the D-Backs to win the NL West. I did so before the Montgomery deal was reported. Not sure about Eric.

8:53	Ben Clemens: I thought I was going to be the analyst most in on Moreno when he was developing on the Jays. Then I asked Eric to make sure he wasn’t going to be an others worth mentioning or whatever on that year’s top 100…. and Eric was like, no, he’s just on the list

8:54	Ben Clemens: he’s a long-term FanGraphs player crush, and specifically an Eric player crush

8:55	justin steele: Moreno is a beast, no doubt. Who are some other FG crushes?

8:56	Ben Clemens: the classic ones are Carson being way early on Kluber, JRam, and Mookie

8:55	Ben Clemens: I’m a lifelong Paredes fan

8:57	Kyle Kishimoto: love him too, huge fan of the high walk low K profile for hitters, and the pulled fly balls don’t hurt either

8:55	Kyle Kishimoto: i think we were the first outlet to put steven kwan in our top 100

8:55	Wes: Oh no, Steele is down

8:55	justin steele: NOOOOOOO

8:55	Ben Clemens: fingers crossed that he’s okay

8:55	Ben Clemens: hell of a play

8:56	Ben: I think he mouthed “cramp” – let’s hope

8:56	Ben Clemens: that or ‘crap’

8:56	Ben Clemens: but I guess in real life, you wouldn’t say ‘crap’

8:56	David Laurila: Alex Speier (Boston Globe) was mentioned earlier. He predicted the Mariners winning the World Series, and his explanation, which is in my most recent Sunday Notes column, is gold.

8:57	Baseball!: I won a fantasy league in part due to FanGraphs kwan love

8:57	Saladpans: Someone get that man a banana.

8:57	2 Dads Playing Catch: cubs infielders too smart, everyone else succumbs to their sheer intellectual prowess

8:58	Ben Clemens: I love how they were listing them down, Vanderbilt oooh, Stanford wowwwwwww, Oregon State trail off quietly and hope no one notices

8:58	RTJ: At Stanford, they famously teach how to throw to third base when the runner gets caught off base

8:58	Baseball!: Eric also chose Luis Robert for AL MVP.

8:58	Ben Clemens: Luis Robert is another FanGraphs player crush btw

8:58	Kyle Kishimoto: and rhett lowder for NL ROY!

8:59	Ben Clemens: Kyle, a Paredes story slash disappointed in myself story for you. I had him like irresponsibly high on last year’s trade value list

8:59	Ben Clemens: then a team person talked me out of it. I’m still mad at myself

8:59	Kyle Kishimoto: oof’

8:59	J: It’s the best middle infield in baseball but I’m not sure Duran making an ill advised attempt to advance to 3rd is an indicator of Swanson’s IQ

9:00	Ben Clemens: I assume that Dansby took “Opponents Giving You Free Ones 202” and “Advanced Don’t Look A Gift Horse In The Mouth” at Vandy

9:00	Mr. Burrito: Just watched highlights of Dodgers/Cardinals. All future children, even the girls, will be named Mookie. That is all.

9:01	Ampersand: I happened to be at Gabriel Moreno’s MLB debut (for Toronto in Detroit) so I feel kind of invested in his career and hope he wins all the awards

9:01	5 Run Homer: Shoutout to Julian Merryweather’s 2021 Opening Day save with the Blue Jays, when I thought we for sure had an elite closer on our hands

9:02	Kyle Kishimoto: he’s legit, love his slider

9:01	ShaunyPat: Has anyone checked on Michael Baumann since the new Orioles owner started talking about the Magna Carta during today’s broadcast? That seems like the content he might pass out listening to, from excitement.

9:02	Ben Clemens: Funny you should ask…

9:02	Ben Clemens: https://twitter.com/MichaelBaumann/status/1773437530324586563

9:02	Ben Clemens: I DM’ed him, btw, and he sent that back to me immediately

9:04	Ben Clemens: Here, some bonus FG writers are in this chat now

9:04	Ben Clemens: Michael Baumann 6:03 PM it was a limited document that stayed in force for like two years, millenia after forms of actual democracy had been instituted elsewhere throughout the globe

9:04	Baseball!: Mookie might score 160+ runs this year

9:04	David Laurila: Which would be the most since the 1930s.

9:04	CET: Is IKF a good defensive 3b? What do the Jays see in him for a two year FA contract and just locking him in as the starter? Seemed like late on in todays game was a perfect chance for Vogey to PH.

9:05	Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, definitely a good defender. His bat is definitely a little light for an everyday player, and I agree that I’m surprised they didn’t pinch hit for him

9:06	CET: Hard for me to believe that throw he rushed across the diamond didn’t exactly look like it lit up statcast, but I might just be spoiled from JD and Matt Chapman the last ten years

9:07	Ben Clemens: Oh it’s a range and hands thing

9:07	Ben Clemens: He has a Gold Glove!

9:07	Ben Clemens: not that it’s the end all be all, but I really do think he’s a good defender

9:07	Binger: Rangers have o/u 2.5 future HOF on their roster (including injured Mad Max and Degrom)?

9:08	Kyle Kishimoto: oh this is a good one, scherzer is a lock, then you have to bet on two of degrom semien seager or even like langford carter or heim making it

9:09	Black and Orange: when you’re already ahead 8-2, why pinch hit and remove a good defender?

9:09	Ben Clemens: Yeah fair

9:09	Ben Clemens: I would take over, btw, I think it’s close but that two of those guys can do it

9:10	J: Merryweather may not have looked super sharp, but this difference between Counsell and Ross is Ross never puts Merryweather in that high leverage spot.

9:10	Ben Clemens: Counsell is a great manager

9:10	2 Dads Playing Catch: he said jonah heim

9:12	Kyle Kishimoto: extreme long shot, not saying it’s remotely likely but if catcher careers continue to get shorter and there are no outliers from this generation he could end up among the better ones of this decade

9:11	5 Run Homer: If Steele is out long-term, do the Cubs just bite the bullet and call up Cade Horton right away?

9:11	David Laurila: Or maybe Ben Brown.

9:13	Saladpans: I recall Ben and Meg discussing the win probability showing on ESPN scorebugs now, but does anyone know how they’re calculating it?

9:13	Ben Clemens: No, and their description didn’t inspire confidence

9:13	Kyle Kishimoto: oh yikes what was their description?

9:13	Ben Clemens: they use historical data, as well as things like the size of the ballpark

9:14	Kyle Kishimoto: yikes

9:15	Morlock Jimenez: Historical data?! Like the Hawley-Smoot Tariff?

9:15	J: It would definitely be Brown or maybe sadly just Smyly. Horton wasn’t in major league spring training and is definitely not up to speed.

9:15	RTJ: It’s also possible that the announcers specializing in talking about balls and strikes are not the same ones who created the formula, and are therefore ill equipped to explain it? Maybe?

9:15	Ben Clemens: Oh 100%

9:15	Ben Clemens: I don’t think I can talk about our odds very well, and theoretically I should be able to. Certainly not if you put me on the spot

9:16	Binger: It was the Angels, but I wouldn’t bet against Corbin Burnes having a career walk year. After Snell and Montgomery debacles, will teams go 7-9 years at $30m+ for him? If not, then for whom???

9:17	Ben Clemens: I don’t think Burnes is comparable to Snell, and DEFINITELY not to Montgomery

9:17	Ben Clemens: I think he’s gonna get a bag

9:17	Sad Angels Fan: I prefer to use future data when making my predictions

9:18

Ben Clemens: There are a lot of versions of this story, but mine: an intern of mine when I worked at a bank came to me with a trading strategy he’d backtested that was just phenomenally effective, wildly so. After a bit of digging it turned out that the way we stored the data, one line of it included whether the next tick was up or down, so you could use the future to predict the future in the backtest. Whoops!

9:19	Saladpans: Predictions should solely be based on vibes, Castellanos for NL MVP.

9:19	Ben Clemens: Mike Petriello shoutout (as Michael Petriello)!

9:20	RTJ: Just to say – i really enjoy these live game-time chats on FG. Hope to have these throughout the year on some irregular basis!

9:21	Ben Clemens: wow that was a very certain celebration for a homer that didn’t get out by that much. love it

9:21	Mike: I have no idea what you meant when you said use the future to predict the future

9:22	Ben Clemens: basically it’s easier to predict if a price will go up if you already know whether the next price was higher or lower

9:21	KC Pain: BOOM ADOLIS

9:22	5 Run Homer: I just made a very loud, involuntary noise when Adolis hit that

9:22	Ben Clemens: yeah to be fair I also thought that was out by six miles

9:22	Ben Clemens: must have had some wild topspin

9:22	David Laurila: A well-struck baseball.

9:23	Binger: 1/3000!

9:23	5 Run Homer: Turns out this Langford kid is really fast, too

9:23	Kyle Kishimoto: wow, way to get your first ever hit

9:23	Baseball!: The 1B ump was not confident in that call

9:23	Ben Clemens: That was a good call, but even if it weren’t, I don’t think the Cubs should have been allowed to challenge

9:23	Ben Clemens: for debut hits, let em stand

9:23	J: The commentators last inning when Belli drove in a run were harping on putting the ball in play instead of selling out for power, but uh looks like homers are nice too

9:23	Ben Clemens: runs are good

9:24	J: Holy shit Langford is so much faster than I realized

9:24	2 Dads Playing Catch: Ben why would you dare to believe in the mariners this year

9:24	Ben Clemens: Look, I just like the team

9:24	Kyle Kishimoto: i wish baseball savant published h-1st times for individual runs

9:26	Baseball!: nothing makes me feel like a baseball curmudgeon more than bemoaning the loss of SPs… even on opening day with all the “aces” and several strong performances… one pitcher went more than 6 inning

9:27	Kyle Kishimoto: counterpoint: shorter starts means you get to see more guys get in the game and that’s good

9:26	Baseball!: And nothing makes me feel more progressive than loving batflips and homer celebrations

9:27	2 Dads Playing Catch: mark leiter jr one of the low key nastiest relievers in baseball the last couple years

9:29	Binger: Feels like we’ve reached a historical low of juniors currently on active MLB rosters

9:30	Ben Clemens: Man, I have no sense of this but i would not have guessed that

9:30	Saladpans: Does Victor Scott II count?

9:30	Ben Clemens: I’m on the road, so I can’t check our database easily, but seems like something to write down and then answer hwen i Have absolutely no idea what to write about

9:31	Kyle Kishimoto: baseball is a sport that has tons of kids of players in the bigs, but no clue if any more or fewer are being named after their dads nowadays

9:31	2 Dads Playing Catch: just wait for enrique bradfield jr binger

9:32	5 Run Homer: I don’t know if we have fewer juniors than usual, but we probably have the best juniors ever

9:32	5 Run Homer: Vladdy, Acuña, Tatis, and Robert is a pretty damn good quartet

9:32	David Laurila: Time for me to call it a night. Got up this morning before sunrise and am now toast. Goodnight all… and happy baseball.

9:32	Ben Clemens: Goodnight David, have a good one

9:32	J: Most projection systems are middling on Leiter but Pecota absolutely loves him. Who would have thought a few years ago he would likely finish his career with more WAR than his cousin!

9:32	Ben Clemens: I think I’d still take Jack in this one, but yeah, it is much closer than I ever thought it’d be

9:32	2 Dads Playing Catch: david cone said bong on national tv

9:33	Ben Clemens: What a world we live in

9:34	Saladpans: “For debut hits, let em stand” – there should be more rules in place for these types of things.

9:34	Ben Clemens: the rare time I like unwritten rules is when they protect cool moments

9:35	5 Run Homer: I haven’t really noticed the see-through pants today, but I can definitely tell you Josh Sborz is wearing Nike underwear

9:35	Ben Clemens: I concur lol

9:35	Baseball!: I gave the see through pants no thought until

9:36	Baseball!: … that was said

9:36	Saladpans: Now I can’t stop staring at Sborz’s thighs.

9:37	Tim L: I’m standing in line for Pliny the Younger on Opening Day. This has been a lifeline

9:37	Ben Clemens: Oh wow where at?

9:37	Ben Clemens: I was actually at the taproom in Santa Rosa over new years and bought Jay some Pliny the Elder

9:38	Ben Clemens: and my wife and I decided we’re gonna go next year

9:38	Tim L: The Windsor location. Might get in before the kitchen closes.

9:38	Fanny: Could you rank the positions in order of dangerousness/injury prone…ness? I don’t understand why OF is better for Tatis than SS

9:39	Kyle Kishimoto: pitcher, catcher, SS/2B, CF, COF/3B, 1B?

9:39	Ben Clemens: ugh, the win probability didn’t change when Madrigal hit his double, I really hope they’re just shaking the system out and it’s not another busted one

9:39	RTJ: it’s gotta be 1) pitcher, 2) catcher, 3) hitter

9:39	2 Dads Playing Catch: annoyed by the development of broadcasters now saying punchie because alek manoah said it in the all star game

9:40	Kyle Kishimoto: i think part of teh difficulty of the middle infield is how many really quick slides and dives there are involved, and how much super quick twitch movement there is

9:40	Ben Clemens: so on the one hand, I’m not a huge fan of ‘punchie’

9:40	Ben Clemens: on the other hand I love when they say ‘cambio’ so let’s call it a wash

9:41	Ben Clemens: I think the issue with Tatis specifically is that a lot of injuries seem to be related to how explosively he changes direction

9:41	Ben Clemens: like he’s stronger than his ligaments and joints

9:42	Ben Clemens: so straight line speed stuff is better on his body

9:42	mri machine: any comments ab judge looking a little off at the plate tonight?

9:42	Kyle Kishimoto: didn’t watch, but i wouldn’t worry about one game

9:42

Phil: 2nd base has always seemed most dangerous to me (other than pitcher and catcher), because the shortstop is moving toward the base and can jump over the runner, but the 2nd baseman is just standing there waiting to get spiked. That feeling might be just a reaction to Pedroia and a couple of other bad ones and not objective, however.

9:44	RTJ: what is this chart with y axis that goes from 100-50-100

9:44	Ben Clemens: hahahaha

9:44	Old man shaking fist at cloud: Kyle re SP

9:44	Old man shaking fist at cloud: Why should we cheer for more pitching changes & fewer narrative driving SP?

9:44	Kyle Kishimoto: better quality of pitching, more variety of arms to talk about

9:44	Ben Clemens: it’s some truly amazing math

9:45	Kyle Kishimoto: i have to take off now, thanks for chatting everyone!

9:45	Ben Clemens: I have to say, I’m the win probability nerd at FanGraphs and even I don’t like how much they’re talking about it on the broadcast. I hope that’s just to break it in and that they’ll leave it in the background soon

9:46	Ben Clemens: “Hey Seiya, catch”

9:46	NetflixnRichHill: I gotta think CF comes after pitcher and Catcher. I know I’m selecting wreckless fielders, but thinking about Griffey and Kiermaier slamming into a wall really amps up the danger level for me

9:46	Ben Clemens: I think there’s some interesting selection bias there. Like the good CF’s are wild

9:46	Ben Clemens: and that might be why they’re good

9:47	2 Dads Playing Catch: pouring one out for grady sizemore as we speak

9:47	Baseball!: It was amazing how effortless andruw made CF look

9:47	Ben Clemens: Let’s Remember Some Really Good Guys, CF Edition

9:47	Ben Clemens: Victor Scott is gonna be fun, speaking of

9:48	Ben Clemens: I dunno if he can hit but he can definitely go get it out there

9:48	Baseball!: Also, watching good OF defense in person is something that cannot be captured on tv

9:48	Ben Clemens: watching good defense in person can’t be captured

9:48	Ben Clemens: it’s my favorite part of the live game (aside from being at a stadium)

9:48	Old man shaking fist at cloud: Beltran in KC was best I ever saw

9:48	5 Run Homer: Griffey and Kiermaier are also really good at jumping into walls and not hurting themselves. I think about early Bryce Harper who seemed like he was constantly banging himself up by going too hard

9:48	Alec Lemas: Andy van Slyke was a darn good cf.

9:48	Baseball!: Jim Edmonds somehow never mentioned enough

9:48	RTJ: watching peak mike trout play OF defense in person was incredible

9:48	FaramirNorth: Love watching Buxton roam (now that in the field again)

9:48	Ben Clemens: Okay that’s a lot of guys to remember

9:49	Ben Clemens: I never really saw Van Slyke play, but Edmonds was a personal favorite of mine as a kid

9:50	5 Run Homer: Also shoutout to Kevin Pillar, the worst player to ever be a national household name thanks to his insane catches

9:50	Ben Clemens: my wife still wonders why he wasn’t a star

9:50	Ben Clemens: oooooh Kirby Yates, fun reliever

9:51	Ben Clemens: awesome strut there too

9:51	5 Run Homer: He was a star in Canada! My very casual baseball fan friends still talk about Pillar

9:51	Baseball!: Is Ben the last writer left standing?

9:51	Ben Clemens: if i’m not the last, I will be shortly

9:52	Ben Clemens: I’ll stay until the end of the ninth, but only under protest; opening day is fun but so is opening day at a sports bar in Tahoe

9:52	Ben Clemens: The last few weeks of skiing and the start of baseball overlapping are the eternal struggle here

9:52	RTJ: you can still catch the evening games there, right?

9:52	Ben Clemens: yeah, that’s the plan

9:53	Ben Clemens: don’t get me wrong, I like chatting, but the atmosphere in this empty airbnb is not quite the same, haha

9:53	KC Pain: All this CF defense talk and no shout out for my boy Doyle?

9:53	Ben Clemens: He really came out of nowhere

9:53	Ben Clemens: I’m very impressed, and also how did people not see this coming in the minors??

9:54	Bryan: Did Jose Hernandez earn himself a longer stint in the show with his effort for Pittsburgh today?

9:55	Ben Clemens: Honestly I kind of think yes, though I’m not intimately familiar with the Pirates bullpen

9:57	Bryan: I was surprised they have given up on Roansy Contreras’

9:57	Ben Clemens: I don’t think they have? Looks like he’s on the paternity list

9:57	Master P: is he in the bullpen now?

9:57	Bryan: Well as a starter I meant… sorry!

9:57	Ben Clemens: ah yeah

9:57	Ben Clemens: We’re projecting him as a full-time reliever this year

9:57	Ben Clemens: I have to say, I kinda like it?

9:58	Master P: could be an absolutely dominant reliever

9:58	Ben Clemens: yeah I agree

9:58	Ben Clemens: His stuff is hellacious when it’s on. I feel like knowing when to give up on guys as starters is a really interesting problem

9:58	Ben Clemens: that is not close to being solved

9:59	RTJ: has the toughest division shifted?

9:59	Ben Clemens: I think it’s still the ALE but that it’s close

9:59	Ben Clemens: ehhhh

9:59	Ben Clemens: that it’s closer

9:59	Ben Clemens: the thing is that there are no bad teams in the ALE. Like the ALW and NLW have a bunch of good teams, perhaps both have higher top ends

9:59	Ben Clemens: but they have the A’s and Rockies