FanGraphs 2024 Staff Predictions
After an offseason marked by big trades and a slow free agent market, the 2024 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.
We asked the staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results.
American League
American League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 13 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 23 |
| Texas Rangers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| Seattle Mariners | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oakland A’s | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 |
| Detroit Tigers | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 13 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 25 |
| New York Yankees | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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American League One Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 10 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 8 |
| Texas Rangers | 5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 |
American League Two Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 6 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 5 |
| Houston Astros | 3 |
| Seattle Mariners | 3 |
| Texas Rangers | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
National League
National League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 18 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
National League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League One Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 14 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 9 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
National League Two Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 13 |
| Atlanta Braves | 8 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 |
Pennant and World Series Winners
American League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 12 |
| Houston Astros | 5 |
| Texas Rangers | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
National League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 11 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 7 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 |
| San Diego Padres | 1 |
World Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 4 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves | 4 |
| Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves | 3 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves | 2 |
| Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. San Diego Padres | 1 |
World Series Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 7 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 4 |
| Houston Astros | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 1 |
Individual Awards
American League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 9 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 5 |
| Aaron Judge | 2 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 1 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1 |
| Royce Lewis | 1 |
| José Ramírez | 1 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 1 |
| Adley Rutschman | 1 |
| Marcus Semien | 1 |
| Mike Trout | 1 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1 |
American League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| George Kirby | 6 |
| Corbin Burnes | 5 |
| Tarik Skubal | 4 |
| Kevin Gausman | 3 |
| Logan Gilbert | 2 |
| Cole Ragans | 2 |
| Luis Castillo | 1 |
| Pablo López | 1 |
| Framber Valdez | 1 |
American League RoY
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Langford | 16 |
| Evan Carter | 4 |
| Junior Caminero | 3 |
| Jackson Holliday | 1 |
| Colt Keith | 1 |
National League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 7 |
| Mookie Betts | 7 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 3 |
| Corbin Carroll | 1 |
| Freddie Freeman | 1 |
| Bryce Harper | 1 |
| Francisco Lindor | 1 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 1 |
| Austin Riley | 1 |
| Matt Olson | 1 |
| Trea Turner | 1 |
National League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 17 |
| Zack Wheeler | 3 |
| Logan Webb | 2 |
| Zac Gallen | 1 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 1 |
| Blake Snell | 1 |
National League RoY
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 9 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4 |
| Jackson Chourio | 3 |
| Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 | 2 |
| Paul Skenes | 2 |
| Masyn Winn | 2 |
| Shota Imanaga | 1 |
| Jared Jones | 1 |
| Rhett Lowder | 1 |
Staff Predictions – Full Ballots
American League Full Ballots
| Author | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | SEA | MIN | BAL | NYY | HOU | TOR | BAL | SEA |
| Ariel Cohen | HOU | MIN | NYY | TBR | SEA | BAL | HOU | NYY |
| Ben Clemens | SEA | MIN | TBR | BAL | HOU | NYY | TBR | SEA |
| Chris Gilligan | HOU | MIN | BAL | NYY | TEX | DET | HOU | BAL |
| Dan Szymborski | HOU | CLE | BAL | NYY | TOR | TEX | BAL | HOU |
| David Laurila | HOU | MIN | BAL | SEA | TBR | TEX | HOU | BAL |
| Davy Andrews | HOU | MIN | NYY | BAL | SEA | TBR | HOU | NYY |
| Eric Longenhagen | TEX | DET | NYY | HOU | BAL | TOR | TEX | DET |
| Esteban Rivera | TEX | MIN | NYY | SEA | HOU | BAL | TEX | NYY |
| Jake Mailhot | HOU | MIN | BAL | SEA | NYY | TOR | BAL | HOU |
| Jason Martinez | SEA | DET | TOR | BAL | NYY | MIN | SEA | TOR |
| Jay Jaffe | TEX | MIN | BAL | TBR | HOU | NYY | BAL | TEX |
| Jeff Zimmerman | TEX | CLE | TBR | HOU | SEA | BAL | TEX | TBR |
| Jon Becker | TEX | MIN | BAL | NYY | HOU | TBR | BAL | TEX |
| Justin Mason | HOU | KCR | BAL | TOR | SEA | TEX | HOU | BAL |
| Kiri Oler | SEA | MIN | BAL | HOU | NYY | TOR | BAL | SEA |
| Kyle Kishimoto | HOU | MIN | TBR | NYY | BAL | DET | HOU | TBR |
| Leo Morgenstern | HOU | MIN | NYY | TEX | BAL | TOR | HOU | NYY |
| Lucas Kelly | HOU | MIN | BAL | NYY | SEA | TEX | HOU | BAL |
| Matt Martell | HOU | DET | NYY | BAL | TEX | SEA | HOU | NYY |
| Meg Rowley | TEX | MIN | TBR | SEA | BAL | NYY | TEX | MIN |
| Michael Baumann | TEX | DET | BAL | NYY | HOU | SEA | BAL | TEX |
| Mike Podhorzer | HOU | MIN | NYY | TBR | SEA | BAL | HOU | NYY |
| Paul Sporer | HOU | MIN | BAL | NYY | TEX | DET | BAL | HOU |
| Tess Taruskin | TEX | MIN | BAL | HOU | NYY | TBR | TEX | BAL |
American League Individual Awards
| Author | MVP | Cy Young | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | Julio Rodríguez | Cole Ragans | Wyatt Langford |
| Ariel Cohen | Juan Soto | Kevin Gausman | Wyatt Langford |
| Ben Clemens | Juan Soto | George Kirby | Junior Caminero |
| Chris Gilligan | Julio Rodríguez | Tarik Skubal | Evan Carter |
| Dan Szymborski | Juan Soto | Corbin Burnes | Wyatt Langford |
| David Laurila | Julio Rodríguez | Tarik Skubal | Evan Carter |
| Davy Andrews | Julio Rodríguez | Cole Ragans | Evan Carter |
| Eric Longenhagen | Luis Robert Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Wyatt Langford |
| Esteban Rivera | Aaron Judge | George Kirby | Wyatt Langford |
| Jake Mailhot | Juan Soto | George Kirby | Wyatt Langford |
| Jason Martinez | Royce Lewis | Corbin Burnes | Colt Keith |
| Jay Jaffe | Juan Soto | Corbin Burnes | Wyatt Langford |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Yordan Alvarez | Logan Gilbert | Wyatt Langford |
| Jon Becker | Juan Soto | Corbin Burnes | Wyatt Langford |
| Justin Mason | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Luis Castillo | Wyatt Langford |
| Kiri Oler | Julio Rodríguez | Kevin Gausman | Junior Caminero |
| Kyle Kishimoto | Aaron Judge | Pablo López | Wyatt Langford |
| Leo Morgenstern | Juan Soto | Tarik Skubal | Jackson Holliday |
| Lucas Kelly | Bobby Witt Jr. | Corbin Burnes | Wyatt Langford |
| Matt Martell | Juan Soto | George Kirby | Wyatt Langford |
| Meg Rowley | José Ramírez | George Kirby | Wyatt Langford |
| Michael Baumann | Adley Rutschman | Logan Gilbert | Wyatt Langford |
| Mike Podhorzer | Juan Soto | Kevin Gausman | Wyatt Langford |
| Paul Sporer | Mike Trout | George Kirby | Evan Carter |
| Tess Taruskin | Marcus Semien | Framber Valdez | Junior Caminero |
National League Full Ballots
| Author | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | SDP | CHC | ATL | LAD |
| Ariel Cohen | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Ben Clemens | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | SFG | STL | ATL | LAD |
| Chris Gilligan | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | SFG | STL | LAD | ATL |
| Dan Szymborski | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| David Laurila | ARI | CIN | PHI | ATL | LAD | CHC | PHI | CIN |
| Davy Andrews | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Eric Longenhagen | ARI | CIN | ATL | PHI | SDP | LAD | ATL | ARI |
| Esteban Rivera | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | ARI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Jake Mailhot | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | ARI | SDP | LAD | ATL |
| Jason Martinez | SFG | CIN | PHI | LAD | ATL | SDP | PHI | SFG |
| Jay Jaffe | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Jeff Zimmerman | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Jon Becker | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | LAD | ATL |
| Justin Mason | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | PIT | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Kiri Oler | LAD | CIN | ATL | PHI | SDP | ARI | ATL | LAD |
| Kyle Kishimoto | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | SDP | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Leo Morgenstern | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | STL | SFG | LAD | ATL |
| Lucas Kelly | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SDP | LAD | ATL |
| Matt Martell | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Meg Rowley | LAD | CHC | ATL | ARI | PHI | CIN | ATL | LAD |
| Michael Baumann | LAD | CIN | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Mike Podhorzer | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SDP | ATL | LAD |
| Paul Sporer | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | SDP | MIL | LAD | ATL |
| Tess Taruskin | LAD | CHC | PHI | ATL | SDP | ARI | LAD | PHI |
National League Individual Awards
| Author | MVP | Cy Young | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Shota Imanaga |
| Ariel Cohen | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Jackson Merrill |
| Ben Clemens | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Jackson Chourio |
| Chris Gilligan | Freddie Freeman | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Dan Szymborski | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Jung Hoo Lee |
| David Laurila | Bryce Harper | Spencer Strider | Jackson Merrill |
| Davy Andrews | Austin Riley | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Eric Longenhagen | Gabriel Moreno | Spencer Strider | Rhett Lowder |
| Esteban Rivera | Francisco Lindor | Tyler Glasnow | Paul Skenes |
| Jake Mailhot | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Jason Martinez | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Blake Snell | Jung Hoo Lee |
| Jay Jaffe | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Jared Jones |
| Jon Becker | Trea Turner | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Justin Mason | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Zac Gallen | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Kiri Oler | Mookie Betts | Logan Webb | Jackson Merrill |
| Kyle Kishimoto | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Zack Wheeler | Jackson Chourio |
| Leo Morgenstern | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Logan Webb | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Lucas Kelly | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Paul Skenes |
| Matt Martell | Mookie Betts | Zack Wheeler | Masyn Winn |
| Meg Rowley | Matt Olson | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Michael Baumann | Corbin Carroll | Spencer Strider | Jackson Chourio |
| Mike Podhorzer | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Paul Sporer | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Zack Wheeler | Jackson Merrill |
| Tess Taruskin | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Masyn Winn |
Pennant and World Series Winners
| Author | AL Pennant Winner | NL Pennant Winner | World Series Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Ariel Cohen | Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros |
| Ben Clemens | Tampa Bay Rays | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Chris Gilligan | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Dan Szymborski | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| David Laurila | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Davy Andrews | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles |
| Eric Longenhagen | Texas Rangers | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Esteban Rivera | New York Yankees | Atlanta Braves | New York Yankees |
| Jake Mailhot | Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Jason Martinez | Toronto Blue Jays | Philadelphia Phillies | Toronto Blue Jays |
| Jay Jaffe | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Tampa Bay Rays | Atlanta Braves | Tampa Bay Rays |
| Jon Becker | Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | Baltimore Orioles |
| Justin Mason | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Kiri Oler | Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Kyle Kishimoto | Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Leo Morgenstern | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Lucas Kelly | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Matt Martell | Texas Rangers | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Meg Rowley | Texas Rangers | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Michael Baumann | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Mike Podhorzer | Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Paul Sporer | Baltimore Orioles | San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles |
| Tess Taruskin | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Gabriel Moreno getting an MVP pick here was not something I expected.
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!
Amongst our weaponry are such diverse elements as: fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope, and nice red uniforms…
Nice red uniforms…no wait, nice purple uniforms…no wait, nice black uniforms with aqua piping…no wait, nice pinstripes…no wait, nice teal uniforms…
That would be the Venezuelan Inquisition. Featuring inquiries such as “So you think you can run on me?” and “ Foul huh? You gonna call this one foul?”
Or the Moorish Inquisition
The list of AL RoY candidates looks like characters from Red Dead Redemption 2 sidequests.
This may be my favorite FG comment ever
Thanks!
Martinez getting wild with that Snell Cy Young pick
I think its even more wild he has the giants and phillies winning the divisions with the dodgers and braves being wild card teams.
There’s always someone who likes to go against the grain when preseason polls come out.
I don’t think it is crazy at all. If ERA is the primary determinant of Cy Young success then he’s going to be pitching in front of some good defenders in a pitchers park, and the Giants have improved a lot of pitchers so it’s possible he could see his walk rate come back to a more normal level.
I don’t really disagree but winning awards in back-to-back years is one of those things the voters seem to set a higher bar on. If it’s another year like this year where your Cy Young favorite kind of depends on what you think a capital-A Ace even means anymore I imagine they give it to anyone else. Especially because of how weird everyone’s been about him being a 2 time Cy Young winner. Blake Snell 3 Time Cy Young winner seems like it’s going to take an all time dominant season
It’d be interesting to see Hall consideration of 3-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, with let’s say 40 career WAR.
Zips has him ending up with closer to 30 WAR. He’s at 21 now for bref and fg. He and Bumgarner are gonna be interesting to watch especially once the quality of other sp’s falls off.
Well, if he’s going to win another Cy Young award, it will take another great season that will push his expected career WAR ahead of the current projections.
Yeah, I was trying to be generous. If he wins, that probably means a 7 WAR or so 2024 and a substantial bump to future projections.
This format makes what should be such a cool and exciting piece cold and joyless … can we get blurbs from each writer? Some personality? This is tables of slop. Baseball opening day is supposed to be fun.
Blurbs from each writer? Let me clear out a week to read that 25,000-word longform think-piece…
This is a fun comment!
Now that I have seen the consensus picks, let me make my Anti-Consensus Picks. First, the World Series matchup.
NL Pennant: Arizona Diamondbacks. I realize that the Dodgers and Braves take up a lot of the oxygen in the room. But the D-Backs, to me, look like they’re primed for a deep run. They have a full rotation of guys who can pitch in the playoffs–virtually all of Gallen, E-Rod, Kelly, Montgomery, and Pfaadt have 3+ win potential. Joc Pederson is going to mash against right handed pitching, the lineup continues to be solid. I think they have what it takes to upset the big boys.
AL Pennant and World Series Champion: Minnesota Twins. I made this pick yesterday, and I haven’t changed my mind yet! I think they’re getting a bit underrated because they had a terrible offseason and they’ve been a picture of playoff futility for so long but this team has a couple of things going for them. (1) They play in an awful division, so they have a good shot to pile up a lot of wins and get a first round bye, and (2) Their best position players are crazy talented, with injuries being the main thing holding them back. If Correa, Lewis, and Buxton are all healthy in September, I think there’s a chance that they will absolutely go off. They have a ton of interesting but seriously flawed left handed bats (Julien, Wallner, Kirilloff) who could help them out. I love Lopez and Joe Ryan and the bullpen is loaded.
Book your plane tickets for the D-Backs – Twins world series now!
That’s bold! I can’t think of another team with nearly as much injury risk with their top 3 position players as the Twins. I’m fading them hard. My hot takes would be:
*Tigers win AL Central. Don’t believe in Twins or Guardians and think Tigers will fill the void. Tons of upside potential across this team.
*Mariners win the AL. So much injury risk with the Yankees (Cole already down, Judge admitted to dealing with constant pain, relying on Rodon/Stroman for lots of innings) and don’t love the Astros rotation this year. Mariners have 3 legit Cy Young contenders, a much improved lineup, a superstar who may still have another gear, and make impact relievers magically appear.
*Cubs easily win the NL Central (by 5+ games). Lots of depth and plentiful highly rated prospects from #1 farm system waiting to step in. For Cardinals, eventually father time will catch up to Goldy/Arenado. Rotations for Cards and Brewers look very suspect. Reds are at least a year away and already have important guys missing time.
The Twins definitely have a lot of injury risk, no doubt. In 2023 they got 1.8 WAR from Buxton and Correa combined, so that was already pretty close to full downside and they were still pretty good.
I expect they’ll make the playoffs and be underdogs in almost every matchup, much as they have been for the last three decades.
I wouldn’t use the Twins 2023 W-L record as a starting point. They lost a lot to free agency (Gray, Maeda, Taylor, Pagan, Floro) and their biggest signing was 38 year old Carlos Santana. Plus, Buxton wasn’t very good when he did play last year; so you’re banking on health + a performance rebound from him.
I guess I’m banking on a median outcome of 6-ish wins from Buxton and Correa to more or less offset the rotation losses, yes. That seems reasonable to me. If they get very little from those two again, the door is wide open.
I think I picked the Mariners last year, but I think they have gone backwards compared to where they were last year going into the season. If only because of injuries.
Of course, the Twins roster has definitely gone backwards, but if they are healthy it’s going to be a great team. For about as an anti-consensus pick as you can get, I feel decent about it.
Also the Mariners WILL not make any upgrade at the deadline if it involves any spending whatsoever so their reinforcements are really capped
It’s not like the Cubs’ pitching staff is any better, and their ace, Steele, is now injured.
Has a team coming off a 70-win last place finish ever gotten more preseason playoff love than the Cardinals are? And if so, did that team also make as few major acquisitions/injury returns in the offseason as StL?
I know it’s easy enough to give them 80 wins on pure regression but to tack on another 8-10 to win the division? Cause of … Sonny Gray? No sir, I’m calling devil magic officially dead.
aaargh, calling devil magic officially dead just makes it angry
Touche. What’s worse is I definitely thought of that and still pressed on with reckless abandon.
As Verbal Kint said “How do you shoot the devil magic in the back? What if you miss?”
I think it is hard to overstate how terrible their rotation was last year. I don’t think Lynn helps them very much but Gray and Gibson should stabilize them.
I would personally pick the Cubs though.
Yeah, think of it this way:
Gray > Montgomery
Mikolas >= 2023 Mikolas
Matz is likely to be healthier.
Gibson > Flaherty
Lynn > Wainwright/Woodford/Liberatore/Rom
…and Gibson, Lynn, Kittredge, Middleton, and Fernandez, and Winn playing a full rookie year likely at a significantly better performance than his terrible cup of coffee. Perhaps healthier years for Gorman, Donovan, Nootbaar, Matz, Helsley, and Naughton.
Just as importantly, they’ve subtracted guys like Wainwright, Woodford, Hudson, Cabrera, VerHagen, and Naile.
Meanwhile, it will likely only take about 85 wins to win the NL Central, not 88-90.
While I agree the Orioles are better than the Red Sox, I’m surprised Baltimore was unanimous as a playoff team and that Boston didn’t receive a single vote. I could certainly see them sneaking in with a Wild Card.
Yeah I was surprised to see so many pick Baltimore here and at BP today. It’s not a bad pick at all, but it also feels unusual for it to be lopsided for a division with several other good teams, and where the Orioles aren’t actually the favorite from projections.
How many pitchers have won the Cy after switching teams? New park, new mound, new catcher and pitching coach. I’m fading Burnes and Snell having peak years.
Going back to 2000, looks like two pitchers have won a Cy Young in their first year with a team: Roger Clemens (2004, Houston) and Roy Halladay (2010, Philadelphia). Like Snell, they had both previously won Cy Youngs with other teams.
Unlike Snell, they were both among the very best pitchers of their generations.
Justin Mason and Jeff Zimmerman are now my favorite contributors
Justin Mason predicting both the Royals and Pirates to make the playoffs is bold to the point I’d question if he’s from the future if it ends up true.
the Royals for the division, even! And Vlad for MVP!
The Royals (and the Pirates) are more likely to win the division than a wild card. The true shocker is that he thinks the Pirates will win a wild card.
He chose last and the others were taken. But I drank all night on a similar 1985 Final Four pick of Villanova, so you never can tell. (OK, you can sorta tell and KC is no #8 seed like ‘Nova was, but let’s enjoy the moment, eh?)
I question his sanity, currently lol.
He is right about the Pirates! I put money on them to win a wild card in Vegas!
That’s like anyone who won big picking the 1999 Rams to win the Superbowl. You pick a huge long shot that has more than just a slight change of actually happening, and then you’ll make a huge bundle if it actually does happens.
More Anti-Consensus Picks (now that I know what the consensus is):
AL MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. Julio Rodriguez and Aaron Judge are the obvious picks here, since Julio is still young and Judge could easily win another MVP if he can just stay healthy (although that seems less and less likely every year). But if you throw those two out, Bobby Witt is my choice. He got really unlucky with batted ball stuff in the first half of last year, but because he plays an elite shortstop and is very fast, he still put up 5.7 fWAR despite all of that. And he’s 23 years old, so he’s got a decent chance of getting better than he was last year, and he seems relatively durable. I don’t think he has to improve at all to get into the 6+ win range, and if he improves at all he’ll be squarely in MVP territory.
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman. This one was a surprise. I assumed that everyone would pick Betts, Acuna, or Freeman, and so I was going to go with Tatis Jr. He’s a good pick–he underperformed his batted ball numbers and has been an elite hitter in the past. But Tatis Jr got more support than I expected. So I have to go with Freeman again. I picked Freddie Freeman last year, which was a good pick–he had a monster 7.9 fWAR season. But Acuna and Betts were just as good. The fact that Freeman is getting overlooked again is kind of wild, especially since his true superpower hasn’t changed: He doesn’t miss games.
My Anti-Consensus Picks for Cy Young (now that I know what the consensus is). This is a tough one; last year I picked Rodon and Verlander, who both then announced they had suffered major injuries within 24 hours of me making the prediction. So I’m feeling a little gun-shy on these, especially since last year the awards went to guys who managed to complete the season.
AL Cy Young: Pablo Lopez. This is always a little risky because the Twins have a habit of playing immobile guys at second base, and to a lesser extent in the corners. But Lopez was phenomenal last year. George Kirby is the trendy pick because he’s not Gausman, Burnes, or Skubal, but the Mariners and Blue Jays and probably Tigers are going to have a terrible infield defense this year, plus Lopez had a huge breakout last year.
One more thing: I was very tempted to go with Cole Ragans this year, because I’m convinced that as long as he is healthy he’s going to be the #1 guy in the Cy Young race. He has good defenders behind him, he plays in a pitchers park, and his stuff is incredible. But everytime a guy gets a sudden boost in stuff, it anecdotally seems like they blow their arms out. So as much as I would love to pick Ragans, I think he’s not going to put up enough innings to make it. And it looks like he’s the cool, dark-horse pick, the consensus anti-consensus pick. No, I don’t think I’m allowed to pick him, even if I want to.
NL Cy Young: Dylan Cease. I have to dig real deep on this one, because Wheeler, Strider, and Webb are the obvious picks. But I’m convinced that last year the NL Cy Young should have gone to the Padres defense and not to Blake Snell. And that defense is still mostly there, with Kim now handling shortstop and Bogaerts at second. Once Machado comes back to play third, Cease has everything he needs to run a shiny ERA. But I feel weird about this one because Cease faded pretty hard last year, and so it’s possible that this one is going to look real bad. But what’s life without a little risk?
To your point on Kauffman stadium – it actually plays favorably to hitters but suppresses home runs.
Not sure I buy your argument about the defense behind Ragans.
I’d like to see how those folks rationalize predicting the Dodgers and Braves to finish second in their divisions.
The Braves, maybe, since the Phillies are generally considered to be the 3rd best team in the NL after the Braves/Dodgers in some order.
They’re predictions & baseball is inherently unpredictable, nothing to rationalize.
All it would take is a couple things go wrong for ATL/LAD (Strider & Acuna get hurt, Mookie & Yamamoto get hurt, etc) while another team stays healthy OR has some surprise performances OR gets lucky in 1 run games.
Now if they’d predicted Colorado & Washington to beat them, that would be nuts..but, PHI, NYM,ARI, SD, SF are close enough where a few lucky bounces could swing it there way,
Really confused how Phillies got so many votes for WS. Is it just people not wanting to do “chalk” and then picking the best non-favorite?
They’re almost a lock for the playoffs. They seem as well built for the way the playoffs are different from the regular season as any team.
Yeah, I think it’s the “big 2” pitchers & the deep bullpen. Getting 4 starts from Wheeler/Nola in a 7 game series is a big advantage.
I’d love to hear why Eric predicts that the Dodgers will take the third wildcard position, without invoking magic spells or divine intervention.
KCR winning the division? Justin Mason is a psychopath haha.
I predict Mookie stays on his current pace and ends the year with 32 WAR.
Every year I bet on teams not picked to be in the playoffs to make the playoffs before Spring Training. Every year I make money. Last year I had Baltimore, Arizona, Miami, and Pittsburg. Two months in, I was a genius, but still 3/4! my $400 made me $2500. This year I only picked Pittsburg and Miami! I’ll make money again! I chickened out on LAA. I might regret that!
You won’t regret that one, I promise. Angels are cursed.
Justin Mason is right! Pittsburg will win a WC!
Wow, such little love for the Mets. I’d pick them for a Wild Card spot over the Giants or any NL Central team.
Justin Mason might as well put down some money on his pick for the Pirates to win a Wild Card spot, because that is a huge long shot with a great potential payout. If the Pirates actually manage to make the playoffs this year, it will almost certainly be by winning the NL Central Division Title.