FanGraphs 2024 Staff Predictions
by Meg Rowley
March 28, 2024
After an offseason marked by big trades and a slow free agent market, the 2024 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.
We asked the staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results.
American League
American League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 13 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 23 |
| Texas Rangers | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| Seattle Mariners | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oakland A’s | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 |
| Detroit Tigers | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kansas City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 13 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 25 |
| New York Yankees | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Boston Red Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League One Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 10 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 8 |
| Texas Rangers | 5 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 |
American League Two Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 6 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 5 |
| Houston Astros | 3 |
| Seattle Mariners | 3 |
| Texas Rangers | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
National League
National League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 22 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 18 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
National League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 22 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 3 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| New York Mets | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League One Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 14 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 9 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
National League Two Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 13 |
| Atlanta Braves | 8 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
| San Francisco Giants | 1 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 1 |
Pennant and World Series Winners
American League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 12 |
| Houston Astros | 5 |
| Texas Rangers | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
National League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 11 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 7 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 |
| San Diego Padres | 1 |
World Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 4 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves | 4 |
| Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves | 3 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves | 2 |
| Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. San Diego Padres | 1 |
World Series Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 7 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 5 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 5 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 4 |
| Houston Astros | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 1 |
Individual Awards
American League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 9 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 5 |
| Aaron Judge | 2 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 1 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1 |
| Royce Lewis | 1 |
| José Ramírez | 1 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 1 |
| Adley Rutschman | 1 |
| Marcus Semien | 1 |
| Mike Trout | 1 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1 |
American League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| George Kirby | 6 |
| Corbin Burnes | 5 |
| Tarik Skubal | 4 |
| Kevin Gausman | 3 |
| Logan Gilbert | 2 |
| Cole Ragans | 2 |
| Luis Castillo | 1 |
| Pablo López | 1 |
| Framber Valdez | 1 |
American League RoY
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Langford | 16 |
| Evan Carter | 4 |
| Junior Caminero | 3 |
| Jackson Holliday | 1 |
| Colt Keith | 1 |
National League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 7 |
| Mookie Betts | 7 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 3 |
| Corbin Carroll | 1 |
| Freddie Freeman | 1 |
| Bryce Harper | 1 |
| Francisco Lindor | 1 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 1 |
| Austin Riley | 1 |
| Matt Olson | 1 |
| Trea Turner | 1 |
National League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 17 |
| Zack Wheeler | 3 |
| Logan Webb | 2 |
| Zac Gallen | 1 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 1 |
| Blake Snell | 1 |
National League RoY
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 9 |
| Jackson Merrill | 4 |
| Jackson Chourio | 3 |
| Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 | 2 |
| Paul Skenes | 2 |
| Masyn Winn | 2 |
| Shota Imanaga | 1 |
| Jared Jones | 1 |
| Rhett Lowder | 1 |
Staff Predictions – Full Ballots
American League Full Ballots
| Author | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | SEA | MIN | BAL | NYY | HOU | TOR | BAL | SEA |
| Ariel Cohen | HOU | MIN | NYY | TBR | SEA | BAL | HOU | NYY |
| Ben Clemens | SEA | MIN | TBR | BAL | HOU | NYY | TBR | SEA |
| Chris Gilligan | HOU | MIN | BAL | NYY | TEX | DET | HOU | BAL |
| Dan Szymborski | HOU | CLE | BAL | NYY | TOR | TEX | BAL | HOU |
| David Laurila | HOU | MIN | BAL | SEA | TBR | TEX | HOU | BAL |
| Davy Andrews | HOU | MIN | NYY | BAL | SEA | TBR | HOU | NYY |
| Eric Longenhagen | TEX | DET | NYY | HOU | BAL | TOR | TEX | DET |
| Esteban Rivera | TEX | MIN | NYY | SEA | HOU | BAL | TEX | NYY |
| Jake Mailhot | HOU | MIN | BAL | SEA | NYY | TOR | BAL | HOU |
| Jason Martinez | SEA | DET | TOR | BAL | NYY | MIN | SEA | TOR |
| Jay Jaffe | TEX | MIN | BAL | TBR | HOU | NYY | BAL | TEX |
| Jeff Zimmerman | TEX | CLE | TBR | HOU | SEA | BAL | TEX | TBR |
| Jon Becker | TEX | MIN | BAL | NYY | HOU | TBR | BAL | TEX |
| Justin Mason | HOU | KCR | BAL | TOR | SEA | TEX | HOU | BAL |
| Kiri Oler | SEA | MIN | BAL | HOU | NYY | TOR | BAL | SEA |
| Kyle Kishimoto | HOU | MIN | TBR | NYY | BAL | DET | HOU | TBR |
| Leo Morgenstern | HOU | MIN | NYY | TEX | BAL | TOR | HOU | NYY |
| Lucas Kelly | HOU | MIN | BAL | NYY | SEA | TEX | HOU | BAL |
| Matt Martell | HOU | DET | NYY | BAL | TEX | SEA | HOU | NYY |
| Meg Rowley | TEX | MIN | TBR | SEA | BAL | NYY | TEX | MIN |
| Michael Baumann | TEX | DET | BAL | NYY | HOU | SEA | BAL | TEX |
| Mike Podhorzer | HOU | MIN | NYY | TBR | SEA | BAL | HOU | NYY |
| Paul Sporer | HOU | MIN | BAL | NYY | TEX | DET | BAL | HOU |
| Tess Taruskin | TEX | MIN | BAL | HOU | NYY | TBR | TEX | BAL |
American League Individual Awards
| Author | MVP | Cy Young | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | Julio Rodríguez | Cole Ragans | Wyatt Langford |
| Ariel Cohen | Juan Soto | Kevin Gausman | Wyatt Langford |
| Ben Clemens | Juan Soto | George Kirby | Junior Caminero |
| Chris Gilligan | Julio Rodríguez | Tarik Skubal | Evan Carter |
| Dan Szymborski | Juan Soto | Corbin Burnes | Wyatt Langford |
| David Laurila | Julio Rodríguez | Tarik Skubal | Evan Carter |
| Davy Andrews | Julio Rodríguez | Cole Ragans | Evan Carter |
| Eric Longenhagen | Luis Robert Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Wyatt Langford |
| Esteban Rivera | Aaron Judge | George Kirby | Wyatt Langford |
| Jake Mailhot | Juan Soto | George Kirby | Wyatt Langford |
| Jason Martinez | Royce Lewis | Corbin Burnes | Colt Keith |
| Jay Jaffe | Juan Soto | Corbin Burnes | Wyatt Langford |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Yordan Alvarez | Logan Gilbert | Wyatt Langford |
| Jon Becker | Juan Soto | Corbin Burnes | Wyatt Langford |
| Justin Mason | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Luis Castillo | Wyatt Langford |
| Kiri Oler | Julio Rodríguez | Kevin Gausman | Junior Caminero |
| Kyle Kishimoto | Aaron Judge | Pablo López | Wyatt Langford |
| Leo Morgenstern | Juan Soto | Tarik Skubal | Jackson Holliday |
| Lucas Kelly | Bobby Witt Jr. | Corbin Burnes | Wyatt Langford |
| Matt Martell | Juan Soto | George Kirby | Wyatt Langford |
| Meg Rowley | José Ramírez | George Kirby | Wyatt Langford |
| Michael Baumann | Adley Rutschman | Logan Gilbert | Wyatt Langford |
| Mike Podhorzer | Juan Soto | Kevin Gausman | Wyatt Langford |
| Paul Sporer | Mike Trout | George Kirby | Evan Carter |
| Tess Taruskin | Marcus Semien | Framber Valdez | Junior Caminero |
National League Full Ballots
| Author | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | SDP | CHC | ATL | LAD |
| Ariel Cohen | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Ben Clemens | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | SFG | STL | ATL | LAD |
| Chris Gilligan | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | SFG | STL | LAD | ATL |
| Dan Szymborski | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| David Laurila | ARI | CIN | PHI | ATL | LAD | CHC | PHI | CIN |
| Davy Andrews | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Eric Longenhagen | ARI | CIN | ATL | PHI | SDP | LAD | ATL | ARI |
| Esteban Rivera | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | ARI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Jake Mailhot | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | ARI | SDP | LAD | ATL |
| Jason Martinez | SFG | CIN | PHI | LAD | ATL | SDP | PHI | SFG |
| Jay Jaffe | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Jeff Zimmerman | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Jon Becker | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | LAD | ATL |
| Justin Mason | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | PIT | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Kiri Oler | LAD | CIN | ATL | PHI | SDP | ARI | ATL | LAD |
| Kyle Kishimoto | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | SDP | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Leo Morgenstern | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | STL | SFG | LAD | ATL |
| Lucas Kelly | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SDP | LAD | ATL |
| Matt Martell | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Meg Rowley | LAD | CHC | ATL | ARI | PHI | CIN | ATL | LAD |
| Michael Baumann | LAD | CIN | ATL | PHI | ARI | SFG | ATL | LAD |
| Mike Podhorzer | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | ARI | SDP | ATL | LAD |
| Paul Sporer | LAD | STL | ATL | PHI | SDP | MIL | LAD | ATL |
| Tess Taruskin | LAD | CHC | PHI | ATL | SDP | ARI | LAD | PHI |
National League Individual Awards
| Author | MVP | Cy Young | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Shota Imanaga |
| Ariel Cohen | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Jackson Merrill |
| Ben Clemens | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Jackson Chourio |
| Chris Gilligan | Freddie Freeman | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Dan Szymborski | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Jung Hoo Lee |
| David Laurila | Bryce Harper | Spencer Strider | Jackson Merrill |
| Davy Andrews | Austin Riley | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Eric Longenhagen | Gabriel Moreno | Spencer Strider | Rhett Lowder |
| Esteban Rivera | Francisco Lindor | Tyler Glasnow | Paul Skenes |
| Jake Mailhot | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Jason Martinez | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Blake Snell | Jung Hoo Lee |
| Jay Jaffe | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Jared Jones |
| Jon Becker | Trea Turner | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Justin Mason | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Zac Gallen | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Kiri Oler | Mookie Betts | Logan Webb | Jackson Merrill |
| Kyle Kishimoto | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Zack Wheeler | Jackson Chourio |
| Leo Morgenstern | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Logan Webb | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Lucas Kelly | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Paul Skenes |
| Matt Martell | Mookie Betts | Zack Wheeler | Masyn Winn |
| Meg Rowley | Matt Olson | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Michael Baumann | Corbin Carroll | Spencer Strider | Jackson Chourio |
| Mike Podhorzer | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Spencer Strider | Yoshinobu Yamamoto |
| Paul Sporer | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Zack Wheeler | Jackson Merrill |
| Tess Taruskin | Mookie Betts | Spencer Strider | Masyn Winn |
Pennant and World Series Winners
| Author | AL Pennant Winner | NL Pennant Winner | World Series Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Ariel Cohen | Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros |
| Ben Clemens | Tampa Bay Rays | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Chris Gilligan | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Dan Szymborski | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| David Laurila | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Davy Andrews | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Baltimore Orioles |
| Eric Longenhagen | Texas Rangers | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Esteban Rivera | New York Yankees | Atlanta Braves | New York Yankees |
| Jake Mailhot | Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Jason Martinez | Toronto Blue Jays | Philadelphia Phillies | Toronto Blue Jays |
| Jay Jaffe | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Tampa Bay Rays | Atlanta Braves | Tampa Bay Rays |
| Jon Becker | Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | Baltimore Orioles |
| Justin Mason | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Kiri Oler | Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Kyle Kishimoto | Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Leo Morgenstern | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Lucas Kelly | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Matt Martell | Texas Rangers | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Meg Rowley | Texas Rangers | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Michael Baumann | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Mike Podhorzer | Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Paul Sporer | Baltimore Orioles | San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles |
| Tess Taruskin | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles |
Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.
Gabriel Moreno getting an MVP pick here was not something I expected.
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!
Amongst our weaponry are such diverse elements as: fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope, and nice red uniforms…
Nice red uniforms…no wait, nice purple uniforms…no wait, nice black uniforms with aqua piping…no wait, nice pinstripes…no wait, nice teal uniforms…
That would be the Venezuelan Inquisition. Featuring inquiries such as “So you think you can run on me?” and “ Foul huh? You gonna call this one foul?”
Or the Moorish Inquisition