FanGraphs 2024 Staff Predictions

by
March 28, 2024
Clayton Freeman/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

After an offseason marked by big trades and a slow free agent market, the 2024 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.

We asked the staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results.

American League

American League West
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Houston Astros 13 4 6 0 23
Texas Rangers 8 1 3 4 16
Seattle Mariners 4 4 6 2 16
Los Angeles Angels 0 0 0 0 0
Oakland A’s 0 0 0 0 0

American League Central
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Minnesota Twins 18 0 0 1 19
Detroit Tigers 4 0 0 3 7
Cleveland Guardians 2 0 0 0 2
Kansas City Royals 1 0 0 0 1
Chicago White Sox 0 0 0 0 0

American League East
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Baltimore Orioles 13 4 4 4 25
New York Yankees 7 8 4 3 22
Tampa Bay Rays 4 3 1 3 11
Toronto Blue Jays 1 1 1 5 8
Boston Red Sox 0 0 0 0 0

American League One Seed
Team Votes
Houston Astros 10
Baltimore Orioles 8
Texas Rangers 5
Seattle Mariners 1
Tampa Bay Rays 1

American League Two Seed
Team Votes
New York Yankees 6
Baltimore Orioles 5
Houston Astros 3
Seattle Mariners 3
Texas Rangers 3
Tampa Bay Rays 2
Detroit Tigers 1
Minnesota Twins 1
Toronto Blue Jays 1

National League

National League West
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Los Angeles Dodgers 22 1 1 1 25
Arizona Diamondbacks 2 1 11 4 18
San Francisco Giants 1 0 2 9 12
San Diego Padres 0 0 6 4 10
Colorado Rockies 0 0 0 0 0

National League Central
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Chicago Cubs 9 0 0 2 11
St. Louis Cardinals 8 0 1 2 11
Cincinnati Reds 5 0 0 1 6
Milwaukee Brewers 3 0 0 1 4
Pittsburgh Pirates 0 0 1 0 1

National League East
Team Division Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Playoffs
Atlanta Braves 22 2 1 0 25
Philadelphia Phillies 3 21 1 0 25
New York Mets 0 0 1 1 2
Miami Marlins 0 0 0 0 0
Washington Nationals 0 0 0 0 0

National League One Seed
Team Votes
Atlanta Braves 14
Los Angeles Dodgers 9
Philadelphia Phillies 2

National League Two Seed
Team Votes
Los Angeles Dodgers 13
Atlanta Braves 8
Arizona Diamondbacks 1
San Francisco Giants 1
Philadelphia Phillies 1
Cincinnati Reds 1

Pennant and World Series Winners

American League Pennant Winner
Team Votes
Baltimore Orioles 12
Houston Astros 5
Texas Rangers 3
Tampa Bay Rays 2
New York Yankees 2
Toronto Blue Jays 1

National League Pennant Winner
Team Votes
Atlanta Braves 11
Philadelphia Phillies 7
Los Angeles Dodgers 6
San Diego Padres 1

World Series Matchups
Matchup Votes
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies 4
Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves 4
Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves 3
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 3
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies 2
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves 2
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 2
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies 1
Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves 1
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 1
New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves 1
Baltimore Orioles vs. San Diego Padres 1

World Series Winner
Team Votes
Atlanta Braves 7
Los Angeles Dodgers 5
Philadelphia Phillies 5
Baltimore Orioles 4
Houston Astros 1
Toronto Blue Jays 1
Tampa Bay Rays 1
New York Yankees 1

Individual Awards

American League MVP
Player Votes
Juan Soto 9
Julio Rodríguez 5
Aaron Judge 2
Yordan Alvarez 1
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1
Royce Lewis 1
José Ramírez 1
Luis Robert Jr. 1
Adley Rutschman 1
Marcus Semien 1
Mike Trout 1
Bobby Witt Jr. 1

American League Cy Young
Player Votes
George Kirby 6
Corbin Burnes 5
Tarik Skubal 4
Kevin Gausman 3
Logan Gilbert 2
Cole Ragans 2
Luis Castillo 1
Pablo López 1
Framber Valdez 1

American League RoY
Player Votes
Wyatt Langford 16
Evan Carter 4
Junior Caminero 3
Jackson Holliday 1
Colt Keith 1

National League MVP
Player Votes
Ronald Acuña Jr. 7
Mookie Betts 7
Fernando Tatis Jr. 3
Corbin Carroll 1
Freddie Freeman 1
Bryce Harper 1
Francisco Lindor 1
Gabriel Moreno 1
Austin Riley 1
Matt Olson 1
Trea Turner 1

National League Cy Young
Player Votes
Spencer Strider 17
Zack Wheeler 3
Logan Webb 2
Zac Gallen 1
Tyler Glasnow 1
Blake Snell 1

National League RoY
Player Votes
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 9
Jackson Merrill 4
Jackson Chourio 3
Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 2
Paul Skenes 2
Masyn Winn 2
Shota Imanaga 1
Jared Jones 1
Rhett Lowder 1

Staff Predictions – Full Ballots

American League Full Ballots
Author West Central East WC1 WC2 WC3 1 Seed 2 Seed
Alex Chamberlain SEA MIN BAL NYY HOU TOR BAL SEA
Ariel Cohen HOU MIN NYY TBR SEA BAL HOU NYY
Ben Clemens SEA MIN TBR BAL HOU NYY TBR SEA
Chris Gilligan HOU MIN BAL NYY TEX DET HOU BAL
Dan Szymborski HOU CLE BAL NYY TOR TEX BAL HOU
David Laurila HOU MIN BAL SEA TBR TEX HOU BAL
Davy Andrews HOU MIN NYY BAL SEA TBR HOU NYY
Eric Longenhagen TEX DET NYY HOU BAL TOR TEX DET
Esteban Rivera TEX MIN NYY SEA HOU BAL TEX NYY
Jake Mailhot HOU MIN BAL SEA NYY TOR BAL HOU
Jason Martinez SEA DET TOR BAL NYY MIN SEA TOR
Jay Jaffe TEX MIN BAL TBR HOU NYY BAL TEX
Jeff Zimmerman TEX CLE TBR HOU SEA BAL TEX TBR
Jon Becker TEX MIN BAL NYY HOU TBR BAL TEX
Justin Mason HOU KCR BAL TOR SEA TEX HOU BAL
Kiri Oler SEA MIN BAL HOU NYY TOR BAL SEA
Kyle Kishimoto HOU MIN TBR NYY BAL DET HOU TBR
Leo Morgenstern HOU MIN NYY TEX BAL TOR HOU NYY
Lucas Kelly HOU MIN BAL NYY SEA TEX HOU BAL
Matt Martell HOU DET NYY BAL TEX SEA HOU NYY
Meg Rowley TEX MIN TBR SEA BAL NYY TEX MIN
Michael Baumann TEX DET BAL NYY HOU SEA BAL TEX
Mike Podhorzer HOU MIN NYY TBR SEA BAL HOU NYY
Paul Sporer HOU MIN BAL NYY TEX DET BAL HOU
Tess Taruskin TEX MIN BAL HOU NYY TBR TEX BAL

American League Individual Awards
Author MVP Cy Young RoY
Alex Chamberlain Julio Rodríguez Cole Ragans Wyatt Langford
Ariel Cohen Juan Soto Kevin Gausman Wyatt Langford
Ben Clemens Juan Soto George Kirby Junior Caminero
Chris Gilligan Julio Rodríguez Tarik Skubal Evan Carter
Dan Szymborski Juan Soto Corbin Burnes Wyatt Langford
David Laurila Julio Rodríguez Tarik Skubal Evan Carter
Davy Andrews Julio Rodríguez Cole Ragans Evan Carter
Eric Longenhagen Luis Robert Jr. Tarik Skubal Wyatt Langford
Esteban Rivera Aaron Judge George Kirby Wyatt Langford
Jake Mailhot Juan Soto George Kirby Wyatt Langford
Jason Martinez Royce Lewis Corbin Burnes Colt Keith
Jay Jaffe Juan Soto Corbin Burnes Wyatt Langford
Jeff Zimmerman Yordan Alvarez Logan Gilbert Wyatt Langford
Jon Becker Juan Soto Corbin Burnes Wyatt Langford
Justin Mason Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Luis Castillo Wyatt Langford
Kiri Oler Julio Rodríguez Kevin Gausman Junior Caminero
Kyle Kishimoto Aaron Judge Pablo López Wyatt Langford
Leo Morgenstern Juan Soto Tarik Skubal Jackson Holliday
Lucas Kelly Bobby Witt Jr. Corbin Burnes Wyatt Langford
Matt Martell Juan Soto George Kirby Wyatt Langford
Meg Rowley José Ramírez George Kirby Wyatt Langford
Michael Baumann Adley Rutschman Logan Gilbert Wyatt Langford
Mike Podhorzer Juan Soto Kevin Gausman Wyatt Langford
Paul Sporer Mike Trout George Kirby Evan Carter
Tess Taruskin Marcus Semien Framber Valdez Junior Caminero

National League Full Ballots
Author West Central East WC1 WC2 WC3 1 Seed 2 Seed
Alex Chamberlain LAD STL ATL PHI SDP CHC ATL LAD
Ariel Cohen LAD STL ATL PHI ARI SFG ATL LAD
Ben Clemens LAD MIL ATL PHI SFG STL ATL LAD
Chris Gilligan LAD CHC ATL PHI SFG STL LAD ATL
Dan Szymborski LAD STL ATL PHI ARI SFG ATL LAD
David Laurila ARI CIN PHI ATL LAD CHC PHI CIN
Davy Andrews LAD CHC ATL PHI NYM ARI LAD ATL
Eric Longenhagen ARI CIN ATL PHI SDP LAD ATL ARI
Esteban Rivera LAD CHC ATL PHI ARI NYM ATL LAD
Jake Mailhot LAD CHC ATL PHI ARI SDP LAD ATL
Jason Martinez SFG CIN PHI LAD ATL SDP PHI SFG
Jay Jaffe LAD STL ATL PHI ARI SFG ATL LAD
Jeff Zimmerman LAD MIL ATL PHI ARI SFG ATL LAD
Jon Becker LAD CHC ATL PHI ARI SFG LAD ATL
Justin Mason LAD CHC ATL PHI PIT ARI LAD ATL
Kiri Oler LAD CIN ATL PHI SDP ARI ATL LAD
Kyle Kishimoto LAD MIL ATL PHI SDP SFG ATL LAD
Leo Morgenstern LAD CHC ATL PHI STL SFG LAD ATL
Lucas Kelly LAD STL ATL PHI ARI SDP LAD ATL
Matt Martell LAD STL ATL PHI ARI SFG ATL LAD
Meg Rowley LAD CHC ATL ARI PHI CIN ATL LAD
Michael Baumann LAD CIN ATL PHI ARI SFG ATL LAD
Mike Podhorzer LAD STL ATL PHI ARI SDP ATL LAD
Paul Sporer LAD STL ATL PHI SDP MIL LAD ATL
Tess Taruskin LAD CHC PHI ATL SDP ARI LAD PHI

National League Individual Awards
Author MVP Cy Young RoY
Alex Chamberlain Mookie Betts Spencer Strider Shota Imanaga
Ariel Cohen Ronald Acuña Jr. Spencer Strider Jackson Merrill
Ben Clemens Mookie Betts Spencer Strider Jackson Chourio
Chris Gilligan Freddie Freeman Spencer Strider Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Dan Szymborski Ronald Acuña Jr. Spencer Strider Jung Hoo Lee
David Laurila Bryce Harper Spencer Strider Jackson Merrill
Davy Andrews Austin Riley Spencer Strider Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Eric Longenhagen Gabriel Moreno Spencer Strider Rhett Lowder
Esteban Rivera Francisco Lindor Tyler Glasnow Paul Skenes
Jake Mailhot Mookie Betts Spencer Strider Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Jason Martinez Fernando Tatis Jr. Blake Snell Jung Hoo Lee
Jay Jaffe Ronald Acuña Jr. Spencer Strider Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Jeff Zimmerman Ronald Acuña Jr. Spencer Strider Jared Jones
Jon Becker Trea Turner Spencer Strider Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Justin Mason Ronald Acuña Jr. Zac Gallen Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Kiri Oler Mookie Betts Logan Webb Jackson Merrill
Kyle Kishimoto Ronald Acuña Jr. Zack Wheeler Jackson Chourio
Leo Morgenstern Fernando Tatis Jr. Logan Webb Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Lucas Kelly Mookie Betts Spencer Strider Paul Skenes
Matt Martell Mookie Betts Zack Wheeler Masyn Winn
Meg Rowley Matt Olson Spencer Strider Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Michael Baumann Corbin Carroll Spencer Strider Jackson Chourio
Mike Podhorzer Ronald Acuña Jr. Spencer Strider Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Paul Sporer Fernando Tatis Jr. Zack Wheeler Jackson Merrill
Tess Taruskin Mookie Betts Spencer Strider Masyn Winn

Pennant and World Series Winners
Author AL Pennant Winner NL Pennant Winner World Series Winner
Alex Chamberlain Baltimore Orioles Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies
Ariel Cohen Houston Astros Atlanta Braves Houston Astros
Ben Clemens Tampa Bay Rays Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves
Chris Gilligan Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Dan Szymborski Baltimore Orioles Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves
David Laurila Baltimore Orioles Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies
Davy Andrews Baltimore Orioles Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles
Eric Longenhagen Texas Rangers Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies
Esteban Rivera New York Yankees Atlanta Braves New York Yankees
Jake Mailhot Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Jason Martinez Toronto Blue Jays Philadelphia Phillies Toronto Blue Jays
Jay Jaffe Baltimore Orioles Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves
Jeff Zimmerman Tampa Bay Rays Atlanta Braves Tampa Bay Rays
Jon Becker Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles
Justin Mason Baltimore Orioles Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves
Kiri Oler Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Kishimoto Houston Astros Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves
Leo Morgenstern New York Yankees Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Lucas Kelly Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Martell Texas Rangers Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies
Meg Rowley Texas Rangers Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves
Michael Baumann Baltimore Orioles Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies
Mike Podhorzer Houston Astros Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves
Paul Sporer Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres Baltimore Orioles
Tess Taruskin Baltimore Orioles Philadelphia Phillies Baltimore Orioles





 

Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.

67 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
FrodoBeck
30 days ago

Gabriel Moreno getting an MVP pick here was not something I expected.

9
jfree
30 days ago
Reply to  FrodoBeck

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!

11
Jason Bmember
30 days ago
Reply to  jfree

Amongst our weaponry are such diverse elements as: fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope, and nice red uniforms…

7
Brian Reinhartmember
30 days ago
Reply to  Jason B

Nice red uniforms…no wait, nice purple uniforms…no wait, nice black uniforms with aqua piping…no wait, nice pinstripes…no wait, nice teal uniforms…

8
deerhaven
30 days ago
Reply to  jfree

That would be the Venezuelan Inquisition. Featuring inquiries such as “So you think you can run on me?” and “ Foul huh? You gonna call this one foul?”

4
jfree
30 days ago
Reply to  deerhaven

Or the Moorish Inquisition

0