2024 ZiPS Projections: Boston Red Sox

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Boston Red Sox.

Batters

As last-place teams go, the 2023 Red Sox were a pretty good one. Nobody puts a 78–84 season on their sizzle reel, but they played adequate baseball for most of the season, enough that they hovered two to four games out of a wild card spot for a large chunk of the summer. An 8–19 September suffocated those chances, but Boston still managed to have an 81–81 Pythag record. If the Red Sox played in a Central division, they would have been competitive for even longer. But Boston’s coastline is on the Atlantic Ocean, not a Great Lake, so this is where they compete.

The offense highlights the awkward situation the Sox are in. They may be happy with the value they got for a year of Mookie Betts, but he offers something that the Red Sox don’t have: someone who can go out of their minds for a year and put an 8–9-WAR season on the leaderboard. Rafael Devers is very good, and one of the premier power-hitting third basemen of this generation; ZiPS gives him a final median home run total among his active compatriots at the hot corner (442) that’s behind only Manny Machado. But he’s not a multi-dimensional all-around monster. Nor is Trevor Story going to fill that role, even if he has as juicy a comeback season as ZiPS thinks he will. Triston Casas should be good as well, but the rest of the roster is just “there.” To upgrade on this group, you need to find 3–4-WAR players, and those don’t come cheap. Boston would be better off with a few more sixes and zeroes on the depth chart.

On the plus side, some of the reinforcements may help, with ZiPS finding a lot of interesting possibilities in Boston’s top prospects. Ceddanne Rafaela didn’t hit in his brief debut, but my Total Zone-esque coordinate measurement system had him as the second-best center fielder in the minors, behind only Jorge Barrosa. ZiPS also already has Marcelo Mayer at the two wins-per-600 PA threshold in 2025 and is certainly more into Kyle Teel than Steamer is. But like the main offense, there just isn’t that phenom guy, though Mayer could take a big step up if his shoulder doesn’t give him too much more trouble. This isn’t a great offseason to make big offensive additions via free agency, and given how the Red Sox have been run in recent years, I can’t imagine they’ll go into any rentals.

Pitchers

The story here is similar. The Sox aren’t bad anywhere, but there just isn’t a tremendous amount of upside either. Expecting Chris Sale to channel the old Chris Sale for 160 innings is a big ask, and Brayan Bello looks more like a good number two than an ace for the franchise that had Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez. With Steamer, we have the Red Sox rotation as the middle of the pack, and I don’t think anything ZiPS is saying here will change that. On the good side, there are quite a few above-replacement Plan Bs, Cs, and Ds for the rotation — necessary given the injury history of several of the starters — but nobody with amazingly high potential. And maybe someone like Wikelman Gonzalez will change that, but it’s a little too soon for projections to see that as a median outcome. This is one place I can see the team spending some money this winter.

When Steamer came out, I was a little surprised to see the Red Sox projected as a top-10 bullpen, but ZiPS actually agrees with that. I suspect Garrett Whitlock is likely to stay in the bullpen from here on out — this has not been confirmed as far as I’ve seen one way or the other — and as a full-time reliever, ZiPS sees him with an ERA in the low threes. Chris Martin joined the team in a whisper on a two-year contract last offseason and served as one of the team’s indispensable parachutes, with an ERA just over one. Clocks are a concern given his age, and there’s a clear warning sign in the strikeout rate decline, but he should still put hitters in their place for another season. As veteran relievers go, ZiPS isn’t as confident about Kenley Jansen given his age and some erosion in his peripheral metrics, and I’d like to see the Red Sox slowly transition their closer job to Whitlock if they keep him in relief. The bottom of the ‘pen isn’t exciting, but it’ll get the job done.

The Red Sox look like an 80–86 win team or so. That kind of team can surprise, and with the coins flipping a bit different last year, they could have made a real wild card run. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays are a clear tier above them, though, and when all is said and done by winter’s end, I think the Yankees may be as well. But that last question is a tale for another ZiPS entry.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Rafael Devers L 27 3B 655 586 95 164 38 1 33 107 58 126 4 2
Alex Verdugo L 28 RF 591 536 83 157 36 3 14 65 46 88 4 2
Trevor Story R 31 SS 411 370 54 91 23 2 15 54 33 117 15 3
Justin Turner R 39 1B 514 454 67 128 26 0 15 65 46 90 3 1
Ceddanne Rafaela R 23 CF 557 521 76 136 29 6 15 76 23 133 20 8
Masataka Yoshida L 30 LF 553 501 67 148 29 2 16 74 43 68 5 1
Triston Casas L 24 1B 502 428 67 113 22 2 22 71 69 119 1 1
David Hamilton L 26 SS 496 443 62 104 17 6 9 52 47 121 35 9
Wilyer Abreu L 25 LF 474 414 63 102 20 1 15 60 55 127 9 4
Kyle Teel L 22 C 456 410 51 107 21 1 6 51 42 100 6 2
Jarren Duran L 27 CF 453 415 60 106 25 6 11 54 31 114 21 3
Enmanuel Valdez L 25 2B 457 411 57 104 23 2 16 60 40 109 6 3
Adam Duvall R 35 CF 389 355 48 85 20 2 21 61 26 119 3 1
Nick Sogard B 26 3B 444 394 55 101 19 3 5 43 42 85 10 4
Bobby Dalbec R 29 3B 486 433 57 97 15 3 22 69 42 177 7 1
Eddy Alvarez L 34 2B 264 224 36 57 12 2 6 34 24 69 8 2
Ronaldo Hernández R 26 C 403 372 41 94 22 1 12 55 21 82 1 1
Chase Meidroth R 22 3B 489 422 63 102 17 1 7 53 53 106 7 1
Rob Refsnyder R 33 LF 294 252 38 67 15 1 6 35 33 68 4 1
Roman Anthony L 20 CF 490 431 56 99 23 3 9 53 53 132 7 4
Connor Wong R 28 C 373 346 46 86 21 2 11 43 20 114 6 2
Ryan Fitzgerald L 30 3B 411 372 42 86 23 5 9 48 31 114 5 4
Marcelo Mayer L 21 SS 393 357 43 85 22 2 11 46 31 110 6 3
Reese McGuire L 29 C 250 230 22 61 15 1 2 21 13 56 1 1
Niko Goodrum 구드럼 B 32 1B 321 276 40 65 13 2 7 34 42 90 8 3
Nick Yorke R 22 2B 500 459 59 107 19 4 9 53 34 133 9 4
Mark Contreras L 29 CF 417 380 50 88 21 3 10 53 28 128 13 4
Christian Arroyo R 29 2B 287 266 33 68 17 0 6 32 14 58 2 2
Pablo Reyes R 30 2B 352 319 48 84 19 1 7 39 28 62 8 4
Marcus Wilson R 27 LF 365 320 44 67 16 3 10 43 40 143 10 2
Elih Marrero B 27 C 213 190 22 43 10 1 1 17 21 57 6 4
Yu Chang R 28 SS 256 236 29 56 12 2 7 35 15 70 4 1
Christian Koss R 26 SS 417 390 46 94 16 4 7 46 17 108 9 3
Stephen Scott L 27 C 391 346 47 79 19 1 10 44 41 91 3 1
Niko Kavadas L 25 1B 481 402 49 81 18 0 17 60 68 183 1 1
Corey Rosier L 24 RF 445 402 61 99 18 6 5 49 33 104 25 5
Brainer Bonaci B 21 SS 417 379 47 92 17 2 7 42 34 102 6 3
Max Ferguson L 24 2B 422 370 52 76 15 5 4 34 45 131 16 2
Narciso Crook R 28 LF 362 323 39 69 16 2 9 48 29 128 7 3
Eddinson Paulino L 21 SS 535 490 66 116 30 4 10 59 37 133 13 4
Alex Binelas L 24 1B 378 346 46 74 18 1 13 46 28 137 6 1
Alex Erro B 26 C 301 278 34 67 11 1 3 26 20 64 3 2
Bradley Zimmer L 31 CF 338 294 40 56 9 1 6 33 28 136 13 5
Phillip Sikes R 25 CF 445 401 54 87 22 3 7 48 32 150 18 4
Eduardo Lopez B 22 RF 333 301 37 67 13 1 4 29 27 97 6 2
Matthew Lugo R 23 3B 434 405 48 93 20 3 6 45 20 117 7 4
Tyler McDonough B 25 LF 413 380 45 84 15 5 5 38 27 130 12 4
Caleb Hamilton R 29 C 249 220 22 42 9 1 6 24 27 90 1 1
Nathan Hickey L 24 C 396 350 45 81 20 1 13 50 39 118 1 1
Tyler Dearden L 25 LF 356 318 38 74 14 1 8 39 31 103 0 1
Edwin Díaz R 28 2B 267 245 23 45 10 2 8 29 18 110 1 1
Bryan Gonzalez R 18 2B 119 111 10 23 3 0 1 8 7 39 2 1
Blaze Jordan R 21 1B 549 512 55 135 29 1 12 65 30 99 1 1
Tyler Esplin L 24 1B 222 207 23 44 11 2 1 17 14 65 1 1
Nick Decker L 24 LF 280 251 33 47 13 2 5 29 23 111 4 2
Tyler Miller L 24 1B 399 373 44 86 15 3 8 43 19 120 9 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Rafael Devers 655 .280 .351 .517 131 .237 .307 -6 3.6 .366 108
Alex Verdugo 591 .293 .350 .450 115 .157 .329 3 2.2 .344 86
Trevor Story 411 .246 .314 .441 102 .195 .319 5 2.2 .323 55
Justin Turner 514 .282 .356 .438 114 .156 .324 4 2.0 .346 72
Ceddanne Rafaela 557 .261 .300 .426 94 .165 .324 7 1.9 .312 74
Masataka Yoshida 553 .295 .356 .457 119 .162 .317 -2 1.9 .349 83
Triston Casas 502 .264 .367 .479 127 .215 .317 -4 1.9 .364 76
David Hamilton 496 .235 .312 .361 82 .126 .304 4 1.6 .298 61
Wilyer Abreu 474 .246 .338 .408 101 .162 .320 7 1.5 .327 61
Kyle Teel 456 .261 .336 .361 89 .100 .332 1 1.5 .309 52
Jarren Duran 453 .255 .313 .424 98 .169 .328 0 1.5 .318 61
Enmanuel Valdez 457 .253 .322 .436 103 .182 .308 -2 1.4 .326 60
Adam Duvall 389 .239 .298 .485 107 .245 .298 -2 1.3 .330 52
Nick Sogard 444 .256 .332 .358 88 .102 .316 4 1.1 .306 50
Bobby Dalbec 486 .224 .305 .425 95 .201 .321 -3 1.0 .316 58
Eddy Alvarez 264 .254 .347 .406 104 .152 .342 -1 1.0 .332 34
Ronaldo Hernández 403 .253 .303 .414 92 .161 .295 -2 1.0 .310 47
Chase Meidroth 489 .242 .342 .336 86 .095 .307 0 1.0 .307 50
Rob Refsnyder 294 .266 .358 .405 107 .139 .343 1 0.9 .336 38
Roman Anthony 490 .230 .316 .360 83 .130 .310 3 0.9 .300 52
Connor Wong 373 .249 .296 .416 91 .168 .339 -3 0.8 .307 45
Ryan Fitzgerald 411 .231 .297 .392 85 .161 .309 4 0.8 .298 46
Marcelo Mayer 393 .238 .300 .403 89 .165 .314 -2 0.7 .304 46
Reese McGuire 250 .265 .308 .365 82 .100 .343 3 0.7 .294 26
Niko Goodrum 321 .236 .336 .373 93 .138 .324 5 0.7 .314 38
Nick Yorke 500 .233 .292 .351 74 .118 .309 7 0.6 .282 51
Mark Contreras 417 .232 .295 .382 82 .150 .322 1 0.5 .294 47
Christian Arroyo 287 .256 .301 .387 85 .132 .307 2 0.5 .298 32
Pablo Reyes 352 .263 .325 .395 94 .132 .308 -4 0.5 .314 44
Marcus Wilson 365 .209 .301 .372 82 .163 .341 6 0.5 .297 39
Elih Marrero 213 .226 .305 .305 67 .079 .318 3 0.4 .276 21
Yu Chang 256 .237 .290 .394 83 .157 .308 -2 0.3 .297 28
Christian Koss 417 .241 .282 .356 72 .115 .316 1 0.3 .278 42
Stephen Scott 391 .228 .312 .376 86 .147 .282 -7 0.3 .302 42
Niko Kavadas 481 .201 .326 .373 90 .172 .317 1 0.2 .311 50
Corey Rosier 445 .246 .308 .358 80 .112 .321 2 0.1 .293 51
Brainer Bonaci 417 .243 .305 .354 78 .111 .315 -4 0.1 .290 43
Max Ferguson 422 .205 .295 .305 64 .100 .306 1 -0.1 .271 37
Narciso Crook 362 .214 .296 .359 77 .146 .323 3 -0.1 .290 37
Eddinson Paulino 535 .237 .295 .376 81 .139 .305 -10 -0.1 .293 59
Alex Binelas 378 .214 .275 .384 76 .171 .311 5 -0.2 .286 38
Alex Erro 301 .241 .292 .320 66 .079 .303 -2 -0.2 .272 27
Bradley Zimmer 338 .190 .290 .289 58 .099 .329 2 -0.3 .264 29
Phillip Sikes 445 .217 .285 .339 69 .122 .328 -3 -0.4 .276 44
Eduardo Lopez 333 .223 .288 .312 63 .090 .315 5 -0.4 .268 29
Matthew Lugo 434 .230 .273 .338 65 .109 .309 2 -0.4 .267 40
Tyler McDonough 413 .221 .277 .326 63 .105 .322 7 -0.5 .265 38
Caleb Hamilton 249 .191 .281 .323 64 .132 .290 -5 -0.5 .270 21
Nathan Hickey 396 .231 .313 .406 93 .174 .311 -19 -0.5 .313 45
Tyler Dearden 356 .233 .307 .358 80 .126 .319 -3 -0.6 .294 35
Edwin (II) Diaz 267 .184 .247 .339 57 .155 .291 0 -0.6 .256 21
Bryan Gonzalez 119 .207 .261 .261 43 .054 .310 -3 -0.7 .236 8
Blaze Jordan 549 .264 .308 .395 89 .131 .307 -6 -0.8 .304 63
Tyler Esplin 222 .213 .266 .300 53 .087 .305 2 -0.9 .251 17
Nick Decker 280 .187 .268 .315 58 .127 .311 0 -1.0 .260 23
Tyler Miller 399 .231 .273 .351 68 .121 .318 0 -1.1 .272 39

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Rafael Devers Kyle Seager Willie Jones Richie Hebner
Alex Verdugo Norm Larker Lloyd Waner Whitey Lockman
Trevor Story Pat Kelly Juan Samuel Niko Goodrum
Justin Turner Paul Konerko Pedro Guerrero Charlie Grimm
Ceddanne Rafaela Ivan Calderon Corey Patterson Glenn Burke
Masataka Yoshida Manny Jimenez Rip Radcliff Melky Cabrera
Triston Casas Boog Powell Craig Kusick Mike Epstein
David Hamilton Andy Fox Scott Earl Ricky Gutierrez
Wilyer Abreu Andy Van Slyke Rusty Torres Johnny Lewis
Kyle Teel Jack Hiatt Al Lopez Gene Dusan
Jarren Duran Mark Little Scott Cousins Jason Repko
Enmanuel Valdez Jim Gantner James Christensen Fran Mullins
Adam Duvall Bill Renna Ray Sadler Alfonso Soriano
Nick Sogard Sergio Ferrer Larry Huff Torre Tyson
Bobby Dalbec Lee Elia Billy Myers Tom Dodd
Eddy Alvarez Chris Clapinski Shawn Gilbert Jace Peterson
Ronaldo Hernández Josh Phegley Jim Price Damon Berryhill
Chase Meidroth Bob Juday Kevin Seitzer Roger Holt
Rob Refsnyder Gene Hermanski Dave Stegman Tim Hendryx
Roman Anthony Aaron Hicks Brian Goodwin Karl Rhodes
Connor Wong John Hester Jim Command Darrell Miller
Ryan Fitzgerald Chris Basak Scott Pratt Jeff Moronko
Marcelo Mayer Ramon German Sammy Esposito Brian Burgamy
Reese McGuire Bryan Holaday John Sevcik Jacob Stallings
Niko Goodrum Jason McDonald Ryan Langerhans Joe Christopher
Nick Yorke Manny Francois Ramon Bautista Dave Orndorff
Mark Contreras Clete Thomas Colin Porter Nic Jackson
Christian Arroyo Ryan Brett Jeff Richardson Lipso Nava
Pablo Reyes Jeff Huson Jordany Valdespin Eddy Garabito
Marcus Wilson Skip Kiil Brett Jackson Willie Argo
Elih Marrero Mike Napoli Dennis Pelfrey Chris O’Dowd
Yu Chang Benji Gil Juan Silverio Ryan Mount
Christian Koss Leo Vargas Tony Beasley Charlie Benson
Stephen Scott JD Closser Adam Melhuse Greg Mahlberg
Niko Kavadas Josh Ockimey Matt Skole Ryan Noda
Corey Rosier William Ray Alejandro De Aza Tom Goodwin
Brainer Bonaci Chris Pittaro Justin Bohn Marcus Lemon
Max Ferguson R.D. Long Jason McDonald Anderson Machado
Narciso Crook Chad Hermansen Willie Argo Mike Kelly
Eddinson Paulino Ian Desmond Ehire Adrianza Osvaldo Abreu
Alex Binelas Derek Jones Todd Dunn Jake Adams
Alex Erro Phil Avlas John Wilson Johnny Hawkins
Bradley Zimmer Lorenzo Scott Chris Powell Tyrone Pendergrass
Phillip Sikes Todd Samples Juan Tolentino Tony Fisher
Eduardo Lopez Mark Simmons Tarrence Patterson Wang-Wei Lin
Matthew Lugo Jeff Eure Bobby Marshall Frank Garnett
Tyler McDonough Rashad Crawford Robbie Garvey Thomas Milone
Caleb Hamilton Buddy Pryor Rick Colbert John Stefero
Nathan Hickey Mike Martin Alex Avila Pete Varney
Tyler Dearden Jeff Baldwin Brad Downing Curt Reed
Edwin (II) Diaz Tom Epperly Bryan Britt Chris Maples
Bryan Gonzalez Lance Hudson Willis Whitehurst George Goodrich
Blaze Jordan Gerald Orlandini Carlos Rivera Fred Hopke
Tyler Esplin Brian Hertel Ryan Davis Jose Medina
Nick Decker Drew Rundle Jesus Hernandez Lute Johnson
Tyler Miller Alonzo Harris Jeremy Jackson Aaron Harvey

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Rafael Devers .305 .375 .573 150 5.1 .256 .324 .460 111 2.1
Alex Verdugo .322 .377 .503 136 3.8 .264 .323 .402 96 0.9
Trevor Story .271 .340 .493 124 3.3 .218 .289 .379 82 1.2
Justin Turner .309 .384 .488 132 3.1 .250 .324 .384 92 0.7
Ceddanne Rafaela .287 .325 .481 113 3.2 .235 .275 .377 74 0.5
Masataka Yoshida .323 .385 .508 139 3.3 .264 .326 .404 98 0.5
Triston Casas .293 .395 .541 150 3.2 .237 .338 .412 106 0.6
David Hamilton .263 .341 .411 102 2.8 .209 .289 .320 66 0.5
Wilyer Abreu .273 .363 .469 121 2.7 .219 .310 .362 84 0.5
Kyle Teel .294 .362 .407 107 2.4 .231 .300 .317 69 0.2
Jarren Duran .281 .336 .482 116 2.6 .226 .280 .374 76 0.3
Enmanuel Valdez .281 .347 .492 122 2.5 .227 .295 .390 83 0.3
Adam Duvall .266 .323 .552 130 2.4 .211 .271 .415 86 0.2
Nick Sogard .283 .360 .403 106 2.0 .232 .305 .318 71 0.1
Bobby Dalbec .251 .331 .489 116 2.3 .197 .282 .370 76 -0.1
Eddy Alvarez .284 .376 .466 125 1.7 .226 .319 .352 82 0.3
Ronaldo Hernández .289 .335 .481 117 2.3 .224 .276 .364 73 0.1
Chase Meidroth .267 .366 .379 102 1.9 .212 .315 .300 69 0.0
Rob Refsnyder .298 .392 .457 127 1.6 .234 .328 .355 86 0.2
Roman Anthony .260 .345 .416 105 2.1 .200 .289 .303 63 -0.3
Connor Wong .277 .327 .474 110 1.7 .220 .267 .358 67 -0.3
Ryan Fitzgerald .263 .331 .454 109 1.9 .204 .268 .343 66 -0.3
Marcelo Mayer .272 .337 .464 115 2.0 .213 .272 .356 70 -0.2
Reese McGuire .303 .347 .420 106 1.5 .234 .280 .318 63 0.1
Niko Goodrum .262 .365 .419 110 1.4 .207 .300 .323 71 -0.1
Nick Yorke .263 .321 .399 93 1.7 .207 .270 .308 57 -0.5
Mark Contreras .262 .324 .438 103 1.7 .204 .260 .334 60 -0.5
Christian Arroyo .286 .334 .442 105 1.2 .224 .274 .334 61 -0.3
Pablo Reyes .294 .358 .445 113 1.3 .233 .297 .344 73 -0.4
Marcus Wilson .234 .329 .428 102 1.3 .178 .271 .315 59 -0.5
Elih Marrero .256 .345 .344 88 0.9 .192 .275 .257 46 -0.2
Yu Chang .271 .318 .453 106 1.1 .212 .264 .341 64 -0.3
Christian Koss .271 .308 .409 92 1.3 .214 .252 .307 53 -0.7
Stephen Scott .261 .342 .433 108 1.4 .201 .278 .322 66 -0.7
Niko Kavadas .232 .355 .429 108 1.2 .169 .293 .317 65 -1.2
Corey Rosier .273 .331 .409 97 1.0 .222 .281 .321 64 -0.8
Brainer Bonaci .269 .331 .407 97 1.0 .216 .280 .307 59 -0.8
Max Ferguson .237 .326 .352 84 0.9 .176 .268 .263 44 -1.1
Narciso Crook .243 .324 .416 97 0.8 .186 .267 .313 57 -0.9
Eddinson Paulino .269 .327 .432 102 1.3 .210 .268 .332 64 -1.2
Alex Binelas .246 .304 .428 96 0.7 .186 .246 .323 56 -1.2
Alex Erro .274 .329 .365 88 0.7 .206 .261 .280 48 -0.9
Bradley Zimmer .224 .322 .347 82 0.6 .161 .258 .245 39 -1.2
Phillip Sikes .244 .309 .386 88 0.6 .187 .258 .298 52 -1.4
Eduardo Lopez .253 .318 .357 84 0.4 .195 .263 .268 47 -1.1
Matthew Lugo .253 .298 .379 81 0.4 .201 .246 .292 46 -1.5
Tyler McDonough .253 .308 .371 82 0.6 .195 .253 .280 46 -1.3
Caleb Hamilton .226 .317 .387 87 0.2 .163 .247 .272 43 -1.1
Nathan Hickey .262 .343 .465 116 0.5 .197 .280 .351 69 -1.6
Tyler Dearden .258 .332 .407 98 0.2 .204 .278 .310 62 -1.4
Edwin (II) Diaz .216 .277 .417 83 0.2 .154 .217 .288 37 -1.3
Bryan Gonzalez .246 .298 .305 66 -0.4 .175 .234 .227 27 -0.9
Blaze Jordan .290 .337 .448 108 0.5 .233 .278 .344 68 -2.2
Tyler Esplin .244 .299 .343 74 -0.3 .182 .236 .249 35 -1.4
Nick Decker .216 .299 .365 78 -0.3 .156 .240 .261 36 -1.7
Tyler Miller .263 .301 .404 87 -0.2 .207 .248 .305 49 -2.0

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Rafael Devers .269 .338 .463 .285 .357 .540
Alex Verdugo .277 .335 .406 .299 .356 .467
Trevor Story .256 .328 .470 .241 .307 .427
Justin Turner .276 .353 .434 .285 .358 .440
Ceddanne Rafaela .260 .299 .433 .262 .301 .422
Masataka Yoshida .279 .344 .434 .301 .361 .466
Triston Casas .250 .352 .441 .271 .373 .497
David Hamilton .228 .303 .349 .238 .316 .367
Wilyer Abreu .233 .319 .377 .254 .347 .425
Kyle Teel .252 .323 .348 .264 .340 .366
Jarren Duran .246 .309 .397 .260 .315 .436
Enmanuel Valdez .245 .310 .406 .258 .329 .453
Adam Duvall .245 .306 .491 .237 .295 .482
Nick Sogard .262 .343 .362 .253 .325 .355
Bobby Dalbec .236 .319 .435 .217 .296 .419
Eddy Alvarez .243 .341 .400 .260 .350 .409
Ronaldo Hernández .261 .310 .429 .246 .297 .403
Chase Meidroth .252 .357 .348 .236 .332 .330
Rob Refsnyder .274 .381 .427 .259 .338 .385
Roman Anthony .216 .302 .333 .234 .321 .369
Connor Wong .248 .301 .428 .249 .293 .408
Ryan Fitzgerald .221 .290 .371 .237 .301 .405
Marcelo Mayer .238 .302 .400 .238 .300 .405
Reese McGuire .246 .295 .298 .272 .312 .387
Niko Goodrum .259 .360 .400 .225 .326 .361
Nick Yorke .235 .295 .350 .232 .290 .351
Mark Contreras .219 .286 .342 .239 .301 .406
Christian Arroyo .260 .304 .385 .253 .299 .389
Pablo Reyes .275 .342 .437 .254 .311 .362
Marcus Wilson .219 .320 .393 .197 .277 .345
Elih Marrero .221 .302 .273 .230 .307 .327
Yu Chang .242 .299 .404 .234 .284 .387
Christian Koss .243 .286 .358 .240 .278 .355
Stephen Scott .227 .306 .364 .229 .315 .381
Niko Kavadas .192 .315 .358 .206 .331 .379
Corey Rosier .232 .297 .328 .253 .313 .372
Brainer Bonaci .241 .305 .365 .244 .305 .347
Max Ferguson .198 .285 .289 .209 .300 .313
Narciso Crook .217 .304 .362 .211 .288 .357
Eddinson Paulino .225 .284 .359 .241 .300 .382
Alex Binelas .206 .268 .343 .217 .278 .402
Alex Erro .235 .283 .306 .244 .297 .328
Bradley Zimmer .190 .293 .253 .191 .289 .302
Phillip Sikes .226 .301 .368 .211 .276 .321
Eduardo Lopez .216 .283 .284 .226 .291 .327
Matthew Lugo .234 .278 .360 .226 .268 .322
Tyler McDonough .217 .278 .326 .223 .276 .326
Caleb Hamilton .198 .298 .349 .184 .266 .298
Nathan Hickey .222 .297 .364 .235 .319 .422
Tyler Dearden .223 .302 .320 .237 .310 .377
Edwin (II) Diaz .179 .250 .321 .187 .245 .353
Bryan Gonzalez .217 .265 .239 .200 .257 .277
Blaze Jordan .276 .325 .398 .256 .297 .392
Tyler Esplin .209 .264 .284 .214 .267 .307
Nick Decker .173 .262 .280 .193 .270 .330
Tyler Miller .217 .263 .330 .236 .277 .360

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Brayan Bello R 25 11 11 4.28 28 27 147.3 154 70 16 54 134
Garrett Whitlock R 28 6 4 3.73 30 12 89.3 86 37 11 19 94
Nick Pivetta R 31 8 9 4.55 32 20 132.7 123 67 21 49 138
Chris Sale L 35 5 5 4.30 18 18 90.0 85 43 13 29 106
Kutter Crawford R 28 6 6 4.49 26 19 106.3 104 53 15 33 103
Josh Winckowski R 26 6 5 4.36 43 12 99.0 102 48 12 33 90
Isaac Coffey R 24 8 8 4.61 22 21 109.3 112 56 16 33 94
Tanner Houck R 28 7 7 4.62 25 21 103.3 100 53 14 39 107
James Paxton L 35 7 9 4.78 23 22 107.3 113 57 17 45 112
Brian Van Belle R 27 6 9 4.94 24 22 118.3 136 65 18 33 82
Victor Santos R 23 6 7 4.93 22 18 107.7 117 59 14 33 75
Brandon Walter L 27 4 4 4.72 27 16 103.0 111 54 13 32 82
Hunter Dobbins R 24 6 7 4.79 20 19 97.7 108 52 13 31 73
Grant Gambrell R 26 6 7 5.12 20 20 103.7 115 59 16 39 77
Wikelman Gonzalez R 22 6 7 5.16 25 25 104.7 100 60 14 66 107
Shane Drohan L 25 6 9 5.20 24 23 107.3 116 62 15 55 88
Chris Murphy L 26 5 5 5.04 29 14 103.7 108 58 14 49 88
Angel Bastardo R 22 4 5 5.19 23 23 102.3 109 59 15 53 85
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 26 4 6 5.16 19 14 82.0 94 47 13 26 62
Justin Hagenman R 27 3 4 4.57 38 4 69.0 73 35 9 21 61
Corey Kluber R 38 5 7 5.26 21 17 87.3 100 51 14 26 75
Chih-Jung Liu R 25 5 8 5.31 23 21 95.0 102 56 15 47 81
John Schreiber R 30 3 2 4.24 52 2 57.3 54 27 7 23 61
Matt Dermody L 33 3 3 4.92 13 10 56.7 64 31 8 16 42
Chris Martin R 38 3 2 3.95 49 0 43.3 48 19 6 8 40
Kenley Jansen R 36 4 3 4.17 49 0 45.3 41 21 7 17 52
Nick Robertson R 25 3 2 4.21 45 1 51.3 50 24 6 18 54
Mauricio Llovera R 28 1 2 4.58 26 4 37.3 36 19 5 13 38
Isaiah Campbell R 26 5 4 4.21 44 1 47.0 46 22 6 18 45
Brennan Bernardino L 32 1 2 4.57 47 5 45.3 45 23 6 19 46
Jacob Webb R 30 3 3 4.30 59 1 60.7 54 29 8 24 67
Rio Gomez L 29 2 4 5.34 25 10 64.0 69 38 10 32 57
Ryan Fernandez R 26 4 4 4.32 37 0 50.0 52 24 7 16 46
Chase Shugart R 27 3 5 5.26 33 8 63.3 74 37 9 23 42
Sterling Sharp R 29 3 5 5.64 19 16 75.0 90 47 11 36 45
Bryan Mata R 25 3 5 5.60 18 15 62.7 64 39 9 40 57
Frank German R 26 2 4 5.29 28 7 51.0 52 30 7 26 48
Alex Hoppe R 25 3 4 4.60 42 0 47.0 50 24 6 17 40
Taylor Broadway R 27 2 2 4.81 32 1 43.0 46 23 6 16 35
Norwith Gudiño R 28 3 5 5.53 24 7 53.7 61 33 8 27 38
Joely Rodríguez L 32 1 2 4.73 36 0 32.3 35 17 4 14 34
Andrew Politi R 28 4 6 5.06 43 3 58.7 61 33 8 27 52
Brendan Nail L 28 2 4 5.32 33 3 45.7 48 27 6 22 39
Zack Kelly R 29 3 3 5.18 34 2 41.7 41 24 6 24 42
Oddanier Mosqueda L 25 3 4 5.14 44 2 56.0 55 32 8 30 55
Zack Weiss R 32 2 2 5.10 36 0 42.3 42 24 6 23 47
Ryan Miller R 28 3 4 5.14 34 1 49.0 54 28 7 19 40
Dinelson Lamet R 31 2 2 5.54 22 4 37.3 37 23 6 20 43
Teddy Stankiewicz R 30 3 5 6.04 17 14 70.0 86 47 11 34 37
Joe Jacques L 29 2 4 5.26 46 2 53.0 58 31 7 21 42
Ryan Zeferjahn R 26 2 4 5.66 30 5 47.7 49 30 7 30 45
Christopher Troye R 25 1 1 5.15 36 0 43.7 39 25 6 33 53
Cam Booser L 32 2 4 5.16 39 0 45.3 48 26 7 24 41
Andrés Núñez R 28 3 4 5.37 41 1 52.0 56 31 7 23 41
Kyle Barraclough R 34 3 5 5.87 21 7 53.7 57 35 9 35 45
Jake Faria R 30 2 2 6.08 20 8 53.3 62 36 9 31 42
Robert Kwiatkowski R 27 1 2 5.51 31 2 50.7 61 31 8 19 27
Justin Garza R 30 2 3 5.76 37 3 50.0 53 32 8 29 45
Theo Denlinger R 27 2 4 5.49 34 0 41.0 43 25 6 25 38
Dylan Spacke R 26 1 3 5.90 29 2 50.3 58 33 7 27 34
Brendan Cellucci L 26 1 3 5.94 36 2 47.0 50 31 7 35 44
Wyatt Olds R 24 3 7 6.33 25 15 69.7 73 49 10 48 58
Skylar Arias L 27 1 2 6.59 21 1 27.3 26 20 4 23 30
Cody Scroggins R 27 1 2 6.27 27 0 33.0 37 23 5 21 24
Jorge Benitez L 25 2 4 5.94 37 0 50.0 52 33 8 36 48

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Brayan Bello 147.3 8.2 3.3 1.0 8.4% 20.8% .317 104 4.03 96 2.2
Garrett Whitlock 89.3 9.5 1.9 1.1 5.1% 25.4% .309 119 3.49 84 1.9
Nick Pivetta 132.7 9.4 3.3 1.4 8.6% 24.3% .289 98 4.45 103 1.7
Chris Sale 90.0 10.6 2.9 1.3 7.7% 28.0% .313 103 3.98 97 1.4
Kutter Crawford 106.3 8.7 2.8 1.3 7.3% 22.8% .299 99 4.20 101 1.4
Josh Winckowski 99.0 8.2 3.0 1.1 7.7% 21.1% .310 102 4.10 98 1.4
Isaac Coffey 109.3 7.7 2.7 1.3 7.0% 20.0% .298 96 4.59 104 1.3
Tanner Houck 103.3 9.3 3.4 1.2 8.8% 24.0% .305 96 4.34 104 1.3
James Paxton 107.3 9.4 3.8 1.4 9.4% 23.4% .321 93 4.54 108 1.1
Brian Van Belle 118.3 6.2 2.5 1.4 6.3% 15.7% .309 90 4.78 112 1.1
Victor Santos 107.7 6.3 2.8 1.2 7.1% 16.1% .300 90 4.61 111 1.1
Brandon Walter 103.0 7.2 2.8 1.1 7.1% 18.3% .309 94 4.44 106 1.0
Hunter Dobbins 97.7 6.7 2.9 1.2 7.2% 17.0% .308 92 4.60 108 1.0
Grant Gambrell 103.7 6.7 3.4 1.4 8.5% 16.7% .305 87 5.05 116 0.8
Wikelman Gonzalez 104.7 9.2 5.7 1.2 13.6% 22.1% .301 86 4.96 116 0.8
Shane Drohan 107.3 7.4 4.6 1.3 11.2% 17.9% .309 85 5.08 117 0.8
Chris Murphy 103.7 7.6 4.3 1.2 10.6% 19.0% .304 88 4.90 114 0.7
Angel Bastardo 102.3 7.5 4.7 1.3 11.2% 17.9% .305 85 5.14 117 0.7
Yusniel Padron-Artiles 82.0 6.8 2.9 1.4 7.2% 17.2% .313 86 4.86 116 0.6
Justin Hagenman 69.0 8.0 2.7 1.2 7.0% 20.5% .312 97 4.18 103 0.6
Corey Kluber 87.3 7.7 2.7 1.4 6.8% 19.5% .322 84 4.76 119 0.5
Chih-Jung Liu 95.0 7.7 4.5 1.4 10.8% 18.6% .306 84 5.24 120 0.5
John Schreiber 57.3 9.6 3.6 1.1 9.3% 24.7% .305 105 4.07 96 0.5
Matt Dermody 56.7 6.7 2.5 1.3 6.5% 17.0% .311 90 4.72 111 0.5
Chris Martin 43.3 8.3 1.7 1.2 4.3% 21.6% .326 112 3.83 89 0.5
Kenley Jansen 45.3 10.3 3.4 1.4 8.8% 26.9% .296 106 4.23 94 0.5
Nick Robertson 51.3 9.5 3.2 1.1 8.1% 24.2% .312 105 3.84 95 0.4
Mauricio Llovera 37.3 9.2 3.1 1.2 8.1% 23.8% .304 97 4.25 103 0.4
Isaiah Campbell 47.0 8.6 3.4 1.1 8.7% 21.8% .301 105 4.28 95 0.4
Brennan Bernardino 45.3 9.1 3.8 1.2 9.5% 23.1% .310 97 4.53 103 0.3
Jacob Webb 60.7 9.9 3.6 1.2 9.3% 25.9% .293 95 4.10 105 0.2
Rio Gomez 64.0 8.0 4.5 1.4 11.0% 19.5% .312 83 5.19 121 0.3
Ryan Fernandez 50.0 8.3 2.9 1.3 7.4% 21.4% .310 103 4.26 97 0.3
Chase Shugart 63.3 6.0 3.3 1.3 8.0% 14.7% .313 84 5.01 119 0.2
Sterling Sharp 75.0 5.4 4.3 1.3 10.3% 12.9% .312 79 5.56 127 0.2
Bryan Mata 62.7 8.2 5.7 1.3 13.7% 19.5% .302 79 5.51 126 0.2
Frank German 51.0 8.5 4.6 1.2 11.2% 20.6% .308 84 4.86 119 0.2
Alex Hoppe 47.0 7.7 3.3 1.1 8.2% 19.2% .310 96 4.36 104 0.1
Taylor Broadway 43.0 7.3 3.3 1.3 8.2% 17.9% .305 92 4.56 109 0.1
Norwith Gudiño 53.7 6.4 4.5 1.3 10.8% 15.3% .308 80 5.40 125 0.1
Joely Rodríguez 32.3 9.5 3.9 1.1 9.7% 23.4% .337 94 4.06 107 0.1
Andrew Politi 58.7 8.0 4.1 1.2 10.2% 19.7% .306 88 4.84 114 0.1
Brendan Nail 45.7 7.7 4.3 1.2 10.7% 18.9% .307 83 4.96 120 0.0
Zack Kelly 41.7 9.1 5.2 1.3 12.6% 22.0% .304 85 5.13 117 0.0
Oddanier Mosqueda 56.0 8.8 4.8 1.3 12.0% 21.9% .301 86 5.13 116 0.0
Zack Weiss 42.3 10.0 4.9 1.3 12.0% 24.5% .319 87 4.65 115 0.0
Ryan Miller 49.0 7.3 3.5 1.3 8.7% 18.3% .313 86 4.89 116 0.0
Dinelson Lamet 37.3 10.4 4.8 1.4 11.7% 25.1% .316 80 4.81 125 -0.1
Teddy Stankiewicz 70.0 4.8 4.4 1.4 10.4% 11.3% .310 73 5.83 136 -0.1
Joe Jacques 53.0 7.1 3.6 1.2 8.9% 17.8% .311 84 5.03 119 -0.1
Ryan Zeferjahn 47.7 8.5 5.7 1.3 13.4% 20.1% .307 78 5.48 128 -0.1
Christopher Troye 43.7 10.9 6.8 1.2 15.9% 25.6% .306 86 5.02 116 -0.1
Cam Booser 45.3 8.1 4.8 1.4 11.4% 19.5% .308 86 5.11 116 -0.1
Andrés Núñez 52.0 7.1 4.0 1.2 9.8% 17.5% .306 83 5.16 121 -0.1
Kyle Barraclough 53.7 7.5 5.9 1.5 13.8% 17.7% .300 76 5.94 132 -0.1
Jake Faria 53.3 7.1 5.2 1.5 12.2% 16.5% .317 73 5.84 137 -0.1
Robert Kwiatkowski 50.7 4.8 3.4 1.4 8.2% 11.6% .305 80 5.54 124 -0.2
Justin Garza 50.0 8.1 5.2 1.4 12.6% 19.6% .308 77 5.46 130 -0.2
Theo Denlinger 41.0 8.3 5.5 1.3 13.0% 19.8% .311 81 5.35 124 -0.2
Dylan Spacke 50.3 6.1 4.8 1.3 11.5% 14.5% .311 75 5.62 133 -0.3
Brendan Cellucci 47.0 8.4 6.7 1.3 15.2% 19.1% .314 75 5.74 134 -0.3
Wyatt Olds 69.7 7.5 6.2 1.3 14.3% 17.3% .301 70 6.21 143 -0.4
Skylar Arias 27.3 9.9 7.6 1.3 17.3% 22.6% .306 67 6.26 149 -0.4
Cody Scroggins 33.0 6.5 5.7 1.4 13.4% 15.3% .308 71 6.13 142 -0.4
Jorge Benitez 50.0 8.6 6.5 1.4 15.0% 20.0% .308 75 5.94 134 -0.5

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Brayan Bello Shelby Miller Wily Peralta Jon Gray
Garrett Whitlock Doug Bird Bryn Smith Dutch Ulrich
Nick Pivetta Red Ruffing Howard Ehmke Robert Person
Chris Sale Teddy Higuera David Price Joe Nuxhall
Kutter Crawford Si Johnson Tom Bradley Bruce Kison
Josh Winckowski Adrian Houser Fred Beene Juan Dominguez
Isaac Coffey Taijuan Walker Henderson Alvarez Luis Cessa
Tanner Houck Pete Smith Bill Bevens Tommy Greene
James Paxton Jerry Koosman Juan Pizarro Gary Peters
Brian Van Belle Kyle Kendrick Jim Bagby Marcos Lopez
Victor Santos Taylor Clarke Jose Bautista Bill Fultz
Brandon Walter Niles Jordan Rick Honeycutt Horacio Estrada 에스트라다
Hunter Dobbins Henderson Alvarez Erasmo Ramirez Luis Cessa
Grant Gambrell Anthony Ranaudo 레나도 Cody Anderson Felipe Lira
Wikelman Gonzalez Gary Kanwisher Scott Scudder Dick Hughes
Shane Drohan Shawn Morimando Dave Owen Mike Connolly
Chris Murphy Fabio Castro Jalen Beeks Joe Kraemer
Angel Bastardo Jack Jenkins Mike James Carlos Carrasco
Yusniel Padron-Artiles D.J. Brown Mike McCarthy Greg LaFever
Justin Hagenman Matt Rusch Luis Andujar Joe Tully
Corey Kluber Shane Reynolds Andy Ashby Cal McLish
Chih-Jung Liu Isauro Pineda Grayson Long Scott Arnold
John Schreiber Mike Perez Will Harris Scott Linebrink
Matt Dermody Jack Kralick Hal Newhouser Jason Jacome
Chris Martin Doug Jones LaTroy Hawkins Warren Hacker
Kenley Jansen Santiago Casilla Dave Veres Joaquin Benoit
Nick Robertson George Frazier Pete Hamner Dario Veras 베라스
Mauricio Llovera Pete Ladd Casey Fien Joel Peralta
Isaiah Campbell Jim Donohue Warner Madrigal Heath Hembree
Brennan Bernardino Rich Rodriguez Craig Breslow Fernando Abad
Jacob Webb Mace Brown Cliff Politte Tom Sturdivant
Rio Gomez Brian Johnson Brian Tallet Jake Woods
Ryan Fernandez Juan Carlos Oviedo Santos Hernandez Fred Rath
Chase Shugart Ted Sadowski Mark Lockenmeyer Brian Smith
Sterling Sharp Ryan Glynn 라이언 Logan Bawcom Juan Carlos Sulbaran
Bryan Mata Bill Faul John Burke Gerald Herron
Frank German Pete Andrelczyk Johnny Barbato Andrew Bellatti
Alex Hoppe Matt Stites Drew Smith Erik Stiller
Taylor Broadway Ed Bauta Chuck Dale Pete Parise
Norwith Gudiño Bill Abernathie Les Webber Paul Patterson
Joely Rodríguez Jim Poole Jack O’Connor Fred Scherman
Andrew Politi Howie Judson Kane Davis 데이비스 Rick Bauer 바우어
Brendan Nail Cookie Cuccurullo Kevin Hickey Bob Macdonald
Zack Kelly Larry Sherry Bob Humphreys Alan Mills
Oddanier Mosqueda Chubby Dean C.J. Riefenhauser Eury De La Rosa
Zack Weiss Mark Corey Brandon Medders Louis Coleman
Ryan Miller Paul Phillips Jason Creasy Andrew Robinson
Dinelson Lamet John Purdin Larry Sherry Ron Davis
Teddy Stankiewicz Jorge De Paula Mikey O’Brien Shane Komine
Joe Jacques Kevin Hickey Russ Swan Jack Spring
Ryan Zeferjahn Corey Copping Ryan Garton Barry Manuel
Christopher Troye Jhan Marinez Wilmer Font 폰트 Tommy Kahnle
Cam Booser Edgar Huerta John Curtis Tommy Hottovy
Andrés Núñez Chuck Seelbach Bob Miller Mark Dewey
Kyle Barraclough Roy Parmelee Joe Coleman Ray Moore
Jake Faria Bryan Mitchell Thomas Lakos Brian Stokes
Robert Kwiatkowski Rich Humphrey Edwin Almonte Justin Souza
Justin Garza Victor Marte Josh Zeid Andre Rienzo
Theo Denlinger Joe Kerrigan Brian Drahman Jeff Nelson
Dylan Spacke Jaime Bluma Jacob Lemoine Mark Peterson
Brendan Cellucci Ryne Slack Gary Hart Russ Rohlicek
Wyatt Olds Roric Harrison Brian Innis Jim Olson
Skylar Arias Larry Heise Gabby Rodriguez Bill White
Cody Scroggins Marcel Lachemann Mike Heinen John Ogiltree
Jorge Benitez Scott Neal Jose Fernandez Matt Marksberry

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Brayan Bello .269 .333 .459 .258 .321 .365 3.1 1.1 3.81 5.00
Garrett Whitlock .256 .299 .423 .240 .282 .385 2.6 1.1 3.02 4.61
Nick Pivetta .237 .316 .411 .243 .306 .427 2.6 0.7 3.93 5.22
Chris Sale .222 .291 .306 .249 .318 .444 2.0 0.5 3.62 5.52
Kutter Crawford .254 .332 .454 .247 .290 .390 2.0 0.7 3.96 5.18
Josh Winckowski .274 .335 .430 .249 .308 .404 2.1 0.6 3.74 5.08
Isaac Coffey .253 .320 .414 .265 .326 .449 2.0 0.6 4.05 5.31
Tanner Houck .258 .346 .458 .239 .308 .371 2.1 0.5 3.90 5.46
James Paxton .300 .373 .422 .254 .324 .453 1.8 0.1 4.10 5.80
Brian Van Belle .283 .338 .470 .281 .325 .460 1.8 0.5 4.37 5.42
Victor Santos .255 .313 .425 .286 .340 .450 1.6 0.4 4.44 5.64
Brandon Walter .242 .313 .348 .282 .339 .468 1.5 0.3 4.24 5.44
Hunter Dobbins .284 .347 .437 .265 .320 .441 1.5 0.4 4.31 5.40
Grant Gambrell .279 .343 .474 .272 .341 .443 1.4 0.2 4.57 5.68
Wikelman Gonzalez .270 .376 .454 .225 .336 .374 1.5 -0.1 4.55 5.87
Shane Drohan .306 .383 .460 .255 .345 .438 1.4 0.1 4.65 5.82
Chris Murphy .233 .331 .333 .275 .355 .467 1.3 -0.1 4.52 5.87
Angel Bastardo .258 .349 .467 .274 .357 .425 1.2 0.0 4.72 5.76
Yusniel Padron-Artiles .275 .331 .450 .286 .340 .486 1.1 0.1 4.58 5.85
Justin Hagenman .269 .333 .462 .263 .310 .410 1.1 0.0 3.82 5.43
Corey Kluber .291 .359 .497 .271 .320 .442 1.1 -0.1 4.53 6.18
Chih-Jung Liu .293 .393 .497 .249 .322 .418 1.1 -0.2 4.79 6.00
John Schreiber .257 .339 .426 .231 .304 .372 1.1 0.0 3.41 5.22
Matt Dermody .260 .326 .416 .288 .341 .464 0.8 0.2 4.36 5.51
Chris Martin .256 .301 .423 .289 .314 .464 0.9 0.0 3.04 5.26
Kenley Jansen .262 .333 .429 .211 .287 .400 1.1 -0.2 3.11 5.59
Nick Robertson .247 .319 .400 .250 .313 .397 0.9 -0.1 3.34 5.24
Mauricio Llovera .258 .347 .439 .241 .299 .392 0.7 0.0 3.74 5.60
Isaiah Campbell .247 .333 .435 .253 .312 .384 0.7 0.0 3.61 5.06
Brennan Bernardino .232 .317 .321 .262 .350 .459 0.8 -0.2 3.75 5.59
Jacob Webb .225 .316 .373 .238 .306 .408 0.8 -0.6 3.53 5.46
Rio Gomez .260 .348 .377 .274 .361 .480 0.7 -0.3 4.75 6.23
Ryan Fernandez .261 .327 .455 .264 .311 .418 0.7 -0.2 3.59 5.29
Chase Shugart .276 .343 .423 .294 .353 .500 0.6 -0.2 4.70 5.99
Sterling Sharp .313 .392 .513 .270 .348 .434 0.6 -0.2 5.13 6.23
Bryan Mata .265 .392 .436 .252 .353 .420 0.6 -0.3 5.10 6.38
Frank German .258 .352 .409 .259 .347 .444 0.6 -0.2 4.64 6.07
Alex Hoppe .276 .344 .448 .257 .315 .406 0.5 -0.2 3.89 5.16
Taylor Broadway .265 .337 .446 .270 .320 .427 0.4 -0.2 4.25 5.55
Norwith Gudiño .295 .370 .505 .265 .354 .416 0.4 -0.4 4.92 6.46
Joely Rodríguez .255 .327 .362 .277 .344 .470 0.4 -0.3 3.89 5.89
Andrew Politi .264 .347 .462 .260 .345 .402 0.6 -0.5 4.33 6.05
Brendan Nail .254 .343 .373 .268 .359 .455 0.4 -0.4 4.58 6.07
Zack Kelly .247 .363 .377 .256 .356 .477 0.3 -0.4 4.49 6.31
Oddanier Mosqueda .221 .337 .338 .268 .367 .465 0.4 -0.6 4.45 6.18
Zack Weiss .263 .371 .461 .244 .330 .400 0.4 -0.5 4.25 6.44
Ryan Miller .274 .352 .453 .275 .342 .441 0.3 -0.5 4.47 6.04
Dinelson Lamet .270 .372 .486 .233 .321 .397 0.3 -0.5 4.56 6.89
Teddy Stankiewicz .321 .408 .534 .277 .343 .447 0.3 -0.5 5.47 6.83
Joe Jacques .225 .309 .310 .296 .380 .500 0.4 -0.5 4.50 6.11
Ryan Zeferjahn .271 .404 .494 .250 .347 .385 0.2 -0.5 5.02 6.67
Christopher Troye .250 .394 .425 .218 .337 .379 0.2 -0.6 4.49 6.34
Cam Booser .241 .333 .414 .276 .362 .463 0.2 -0.7 4.45 6.39
Andrés Núñez .264 .352 .440 .274 .363 .436 0.3 -0.6 4.67 6.33
Kyle Barraclough .273 .387 .444 .261 .368 .470 0.2 -0.7 5.20 6.99
Jake Faria .276 .395 .449 .292 .368 .500 0.3 -0.5 5.27 6.89
Robert Kwiatkowski .322 .392 .544 .269 .328 .429 0.1 -0.5 4.98 6.18
Justin Garza .250 .385 .393 .278 .349 .496 0.1 -0.6 5.04 6.64
Theo Denlinger .280 .386 .480 .250 .356 .409 0.0 -0.6 4.87 6.44
Dylan Spacke .309 .405 .521 .261 .352 .396 0.0 -0.7 5.41 6.69
Brendan Cellucci .250 .400 .383 .273 .382 .477 0.0 -0.8 5.22 6.86
Wyatt Olds .282 .434 .492 .248 .370 .399 0.1 -1.0 5.75 7.17
Skylar Arias .235 .422 .353 .250 .402 .472 -0.1 -0.6 5.52 7.64
Cody Scroggins .274 .392 .484 .282 .395 .451 -0.2 -0.7 5.55 7.22
Jorge Benitez .220 .356 .322 .279 .400 .500 -0.1 -1.1 5.12 7.11

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombonemember
3 months ago

This is the sort of team that probably should only be going after the best of the younger free agents. They’re not close to making a big push. They need guys who will still be just as good 3 and 4 years down the line.

I know the rumors that they’re in on Ohtani but I think Yamamoto is a cleaner fit (and would cost somewhere between a third and half as much). Soto next offseason as well. If they didn’t already have a zillion outfielders, Jung-hoo Lee. Maybe they go get him anyway.

CC AFCmember
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Is Ohtani/Boston really a thing? I struggle to see what they could offer him that’s not beat by other teams. There’s better teams right now, there’s teams that are better set up for the next 5 years, theres teams with stable management with track records, teams in places it’s warmer, with good food and pleasant people (sometimes all those things!).

Last edited 3 months ago by CC AFC
sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Hey now Boston has good food

CC AFCmember
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

This has been my heel promo on Boston. I could have added that he might want to go watch an American football game sometime and there’s another point in favor of anywhere else…

The rest was tongue in cheek, but the baseball points are legit if he’s as serious about winning be the key factor as it seems.

Last edited 3 months ago by CC AFC
sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I have fond memories of Boston. I also have horrible memories of Boston. That place really made an impression on me, I guess.

Although I imagine if I had lived in Philadelphia or New York City I would say the same thing.

CC AFCmember
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I have lived in both Boston and NY for more than 5 years each. They are both great. Boston’s belief that its sports are somehow uniquely important to the rest of America is wild.

You all love your teams! It’s great, I swear I’m happy for you. Your teams have been on an incredible run of success for the last 20 years. But they’re not some special magical place. Brady is the football goat and everyone outside of Boston and Tampa is thrilled he’s retired. Everyone else liked showtime better than Larry and McHale. Boston’s overestimation of Jason Varitek is surpassed in the catcher realm only by St. Louis thinking that Yadier Molina cured cancer during pitching changes. We all thought it was hilarious when the best regular season hockey team ever lost to an 8 seed.

If Ohtani wants to be exalted by the Boston metro area, specifically, he’d get that in spades signing there. His national and international legacy isn’t going to change one bit signing with Boston vs 15 plus other teams that are not the Royals or Pirates

airforce21one
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I didn’t like showtime more than Bird/McHale/Parish.

tz
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

And they’ve had success with bringing Japanese players to town, even though Boston’s not a haven for Japanese immigration etc.

But, then again, if this were a factor Ohtani probably wouldn’t have chosen the Angels over the Mariners or others. I still have a gut that the Cubs will win the battle over the Dodgers and Mariners to get him.

sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  tz

I think the Dodgers have to be considered the favorite if they’re close with money because they can offer everything. Giants will offer the most, Cubs and Blue Jays are dark horses. The bidding might get beyond Seattle.

sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

That said, I have no idea how much more money they would have to pay Ohtani to come play for a last-place team that replaces its front office every four years.

darren
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

There’s money. And money can be exchanged for goods and services.

CC AFCmember
3 months ago
Reply to  darren

And there are plenty of teams with just as much as Boston. This feels like an NBA situation where there will be several teams offering about the same money so other stuff will be the deciding factor.

Ohtani himself has been saying that winning is the main thing, and I tend to believe until there’s evidence to the contrary. He did come over early and have to live with a standard pre-arb contract when he could have waited and gotten a bag as a full free agent.

Last edited 3 months ago by CC AFC
darren
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I don’t think the Red Sox will get him so I guess we agree there. I do think that if they significantly outbid the field, they have as good a chance as most teams. The Dodgers, Braves, and maybe a couple others have an edge with all things being equal. Other teams that are likely to be willing to spend on him include the Mets, Angels, and Yankees, none of whom have been in contention much more than the Red Sox recently.

I’m not at all worried about the “disarray” issue. I don’t think players are particularly worried about GMs changing a couple times in the past 8 years. They are probably more interested in continuity at the manager position, where the Red Sox have had Cora since 2018 (sort of lol).

Brock244
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Disagree with this. Boston has a pretty big Asian population, the new balance headquarters, and is one of the biggest markets/most storied franchises in baseball. Plus, they’d probably be good w him. I mean, if Ohtani was playing in Boston they’d probably be the biggest show in baseball and he’d get even more national recognition. Look at how huge Ortiz/Brady were and how big Tatum is even w/o a ring. Tatum is probably the most marketable new gen NBA player and he’s probably not even a top 5 guy.

I don’t think they actually sign him, bc I don’t think they’d actually spend that money on 1 guy, but I’d imagine there would be mutual interest if they were serious.

Last edited 3 months ago by Brock244
rickdugo3000
3 months ago
Reply to  Brock244

tatums top fye and he isnt 5-2

CC AFCmember
3 months ago
Reply to  Brock244

What in there doesn’t apply to LA or New York, San Fran or Seattle? They all have significant Asian populations with lots of big corporations and they’ve all produced major sports stars in multiple sports. None of what you cited distinguishes Boston from those cities. And all of those cities have teams that are better positioned, except maybe San Francisco depending on whether they break the bank this offseason. That’s not even mentioning places like Dallas and Atlanta that are plenty large, cosmopolitan cities that have produced big sports stars and have even better teams

Brock244
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

Disagree, Being a star in Seattle or Atlanta is definitely not the same as Boston.

Yankees/Redsox/Dodgers will always have that iconic edge for marketing purposes. Those aren’t just big baseball franchises, they are 3 of the biggest in American sports.

Ohtani being partnered with New Balance which is why I mentioned that company.

While all those teams have a real selling point, I do think your underselling Bostons 4 recent championships, great farm system and decent history of turning things around quickly.

Last edited 3 months ago by Brock244
CC AFCmember
3 months ago
Reply to  Brock244

Right, cause Ken Griffey jr did not have every kid in America wearing their hats backwards in the 90s. No one paid any attention to him. Hank Aaron too. No one knows who he is except the super baseball nerds here.

Last edited 3 months ago by CC AFC
Jason Bmember
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

This is disingenuous in so many ways.

(1) Saying one city is better than another for marketing purposes (which is self-evident for NY and LA) is not analogous to saying that no one except baseball nerds will ever pay attention to any player in another market. No one was making that point.

(2) Everyone loved (and loves!) Griffey, but I don’t remember him single-handedly starting any fashion trends. Some kids wore their hats backwards, and Griffey wore his hat backwards, but I’m not sure he directly caused “every kid to wear their hat backwards in the 90s”. Did he have some influence? Probably! Was pop culture at large taking their fashion cues from him? Likely not.

(3) How much attention Hank Aaron got in the 60s and 70s (when baseball occupied much more of a prominent place in culture; when marketing was notably different than 50+ years hence; and as the single greatest home run hitter ever of all time, at the time) isn’t particularly germane to the discussion at hand, and may actually be a point in his favor – if we half to reach back half a century for a player in Atlanta that anyone besides baseball nerds really paid attention to, and even then it took someone chasing and breaking baseball’s single most hallowed record.

(4) I like numbered lists and italics.

CC AFCmember
3 months ago
Reply to  Jason B

If you’d like a more contemporary example, Mike Vick was just about the most popular sports dude alive for several years. ESPN just did a retrospective on how his
Madden character is still a legend. Boston is not better positioned nationally from a marketing perspective than other large, coastal cities

Last edited 3 months ago by CC AFC
Brock244
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

I never said they were irrelevant. Just that the Redsox are not just a team but a worldwide brand, similar to Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers

That type of stuff is important. Ohtani on one of those teams is maybe the biggest name in sports which is quite hard to do in baseball

Last edited 3 months ago by Brock244
airforce21one
3 months ago
Reply to  Brock244

Tatum is probably the most marketable new gen NBA player and he’s probably not even a top 5 guy

Lol, what? More than Giannis, Wemby, Doncic?

Brock244
3 months ago
Reply to  airforce21one

In America? Yeah, he probably is. Maybe #2 behind Wemby

MikeDmember
3 months ago
Reply to  CC AFC

He is interested in his legacy, so the park he calls home will be important. That will work against the Giants. Fenway is a great park for hitting, the best in the AL. Yankee Stadium is great for lefty hitters who can get the ball in the air and pull it down the line, but it actually decreases overall hitting, while Fenway significantly increases it. That certainly seems like it might be appealing. What better way to be the modern Babe Ruth than go back to Ruth’s first baseball home?

Not saying it will happen, but it’s something that can work in the Red Sox’s favor. That, and money! He’s getting paid, so it’s the secondary things that could sway him. What no east coast team can overcome is they’re on the east coast. If he prefers California, he’ll get the money he needs to stay there.

sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  MikeD

Fenway does weird things to offense. If you are in the business of smacking doubles off the Green Monster, it works out better than having your homers swallowed by right field.

montrealmember
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

You make an excellent point (except I bring it up as a Yankee fan)…..the best 3 players considering age would be Yamamoto, Jung Hoo Lee and Soto. Some teams need to wake up and quit going after 30 year olds. I’m not going to argue with people but Ohtani may well be the worst contract a team can sign. 500 to 550 million for a DH turning 30 years old is a bad gamble. A lot depends on if he returns to be a very good pitcher but there are lots of red flags on that front. If I had my choice for the Yankees next contract I would want Yamamoto over Ohtani by a mile.

darren
3 months ago
Reply to  montreal

Ohtani is just an awful fit for this roster. They need someone (or sometwo) who can provide durability at the top or near the top of the rotation, which Ohtani won’t provide next year and may provide in the future.

They also have 2-3 guys who are playing the field but really belong at DH or at least an easier position. Plugging Ohtani in at DH ensures the defense will remain subpar.

Doug Lampertmember
3 months ago
Reply to  montreal

Given the likely difference in price, I agree that Yamamoto is very likely to end up as the better choice, so as a Red Sox fan, I hope the Yankees go all in on Ohtani.

Them getting him has two advantages, spends a lot of Hal’s money, and also let’s me watch Ohtani a bunch of times each year.

MikeDmember
3 months ago
Reply to  Doug Lampert

There seems to be no discussion of Ohtani and the Yankees. Then again, all negotiation talk with all teams are locked down. I think the Yankees are focused on a deal for Soto, and signing Yamamoto. They may not achieve either, but that seems to be their direction at the moment.

sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  montreal

I think there are a lot of teams for whom Ohtani is the best player for the roster. If the team is ready to make a push now (or in 2-3 years, since he’ll theoretically be pitching again then), there isn’t another player who is going to make a difference like he will. But the Red Sox aren’t in that situation. They probably need a top-flight middle infielder and at least one top-flight starting pitcher and they’ll be in the area where an immediate push will make sense.

One of the nice things about getting someone younger is that it gives them a longer window to acquire multiple top players when they are still good.

whiptydojoe
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

You guys just spent a LOT of words on a guy that isn’t even rostered by Boston right now and won’t truly affect the ZiPS outcomes for the players listed anyways.

sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  whiptydojoe

At least the digression was about baseball! (mostly)