2025 American League 40-Man Roster Crunch Analysis

One of my favorite annual exercises is a quick and dirty assessment of every team’s 40-man roster situation. Which prospects need to be added to their club’s 40-man by next Tuesday’s deadline to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft? Which veterans are in danger of being non-tendered because of their projected arbitration salary? And which players aren’t good enough to make their current org’s active roster, but would see the field for a different club and therefore have some trade value? These are the questions I’m attempting to answer with a piece like this. Most teams add and subtract a handful of players to their roster every offseason — some just one or two, others as many as 10. My aim with this exercise is to attempt to project what each team’s roster will look like when the deadline to add players arrives on Tuesday, or at least give you an idea of the names I think are likely to be on the table for decision-makers to consider.

This project is completed by using the RosterResource Depth Charts to examine current 40-man occupancy and roster makeup, and then weigh the young, unrostered prospects who are Rule 5 eligible in December against the least keepable current big leaguers in the org to create a bubble for each roster. The bigger and more talented the bubble, the more imperative it is for a team to make a couple of trades to do something with their talent overage rather than watch it walk out the door for nothing in the Rule 5.

Below you’ll see each team’s current 40-man count, the players I view as locks to be rostered, the fringe players currently on the roster whose spots feel tenuous, and the more marginal prospects who have an argument to be added but aren’t guaranteed. I only included full sections for the teams that have an obvious crunch or churn, with a paragraph of notes addressing the clubs with less intricate roster situations at the bottom. I have the players listed from left to right in the order I prefer them, so the left-most names are the players I’d keep, and right-most names are the guys I’d be more likely to cut. I’ve italicized the names of the players who I believe fall below the cut line. As a reminder, players who signed at age 18 or younger must be added to the 40-man within five seasons to be protected from the Rule 5, while those signed at age 19 or older must be added within four. Brendan Gawlowski examined the National League yesterday, so be sure to check that out too. Let’s get to it.

Baltimore Orioles
Current Count: 40
Must-Add Prospects: SIRP Anthony Nunez (selected November 6)
Current 40-man Bubble: C Maverick Handley, C Alex Jackson, 1B Ryan Noda, and several relievers
Fringe Prospects: SP Cameron Weston, MIRP Alex Pham, SIRP Cameron Foster, C/1B Creed Willems, CF Jud Fabian, OF Reed Trimble, relievers Gerald Ogando and Keagan Gillies, and a few more
Trade Candidates: 1B/LF Ryan Mountcastle

I think there’s a lot of activity looming on the fringe of the Orioles’ 40-man roster due to the sheer volume of pitching prospects they have coming, the lack of flexibility with their current active roster’s bullpen (look at how many guys are out of options), and at least partially because of their glut of catchers and first basemen. The big league catcher/first base mix is already crowded (Adley Rutschman, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo and Mountcastle) before we even get to Noda, Jackson, Handley and Willems. Mountcastle is getting funneled toward a first base-only existence because Tyler O’Neill opted into his deal. Whether or not Baltimore considers Mayo’s late-season surge to be real might dictate how they handle Mountcastle, who is entering his contract year. The recent additions of Leody Taveras and Pedro Leon make Fabian (who hit .186 in 2025 but can really play center field) and Trimble (a more balanced switch-hitter with 40- and 50-grade tools) less likely to be rostered.

Pitching-wise, conversion arm Anthony Nunez was added on November 6 (read about his fascinating journey here), which wasn’t surprising, especially after he was throwing even harder in September, often 95-97 mph. He might play a big role in Baltimore’s 2026 bullpen. Weston is a low-slot starter who’ll play a spot start role in 2026 and looks like a swingman long-term. Pham and Foster have vertical releases and attack with various breaking balls. Pham is more about deception and command and has multi-inning experience, while Foster is best when he can bully righties for an inning at a time.

Justin Armbruester (lat) and Juan Nuñez (shoulder) are talented, but spent most of the year injured and are probably far enough away from the realistic Rule 5 mix to not need to be rostered, though it’s probably a good idea for scouting departs to ascertain whether either of them is throwing this offseason and how they look if so. There are a couple other guys (Ogando, Yaqui Rivera, Yeiber Cartaya) who have good stuff but are too raw as strike-throwers for me to think they’d stick on a big league roster next spring via the Rule 5. Sayer Diederich is an Indy Ball signee who played in the Arizona Fall League and looks like a future lefty specialist.

Boston Red Sox
Current Count: 40
Must-Add Prospects: None
Current 40-man Bubble: One or two of utilitymen David Hamilton and Nick Sogard, 1B Nathaniel Lowe, SP Cooper Criswell, 2B Vaughn Grissom, MIRP Chris Murphy
Fringe Prospects: SP David Sandlin, SP Hayden Mullins, SP Jedixson Paez (inj), SP Yordanny Monegro (inj), SP Dalton Rogers, OF Miguel Bleis, SIRP Caleb Bolden, OF Allan Castro, MIRP Jack Anderson, SIRP Eduardo Rivera
Trade Candidates: OF Jarren Duran, 1B Triston Casas

Boston doesn’t have a crunch so much as their roster is quite imbalanced. Look at all the young, controllable pitching they have on their 40-man already (be sure to scroll to the minor league group) even before any of this year’s crop of candidates is added. It’s possible the Red Sox will just add a guy or two from my list above and retain basically all of their current position players, but I also consider them a candidate to trade some pitching to address their need at first base.

I like Paez as a prospect more than I do Monegro, but I think it’s more important for the Red Sox to roster Monegro to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft this offseason. The timing of his 2025 Tommy John surgery puts him in line for a late-2026 return, potentially a convenient amount of time for a club to roster and retain him. Duran and Casas are listed as trade candidates because of rumors from the deadline period a few months ago.

Cleveland Guardians
Current Count: 37
Must-Add Prospects: SS Angel Genao
Current 40-man Bubble: SS Brayan Rocchio, OF George Valera, OF Will Brennan, OF Johnathan Rodríguez, 1B Jhonkensy Noel, SIRP Zak Kent, OF Nolan Jones
Fringe Prospects: CF Kahlil Watson, SP Austin Peterson, SP Will Dion, SIRP Yorman Gómez, SP Ryan Webb, SS Jose Devers, SP Rodney Boone, OF Wuilfredo Antunez, INF Milan Tolentino, a few more strike-throwers with below-average stuff
Trade Candidates: LF Steven Kwan

We’ve seen the Guardians turn over a huge chunk of their 40-man before, and this year has a similar tone as we approach the roster deadline. Many of the fellas on the 40-man bubble above have run dry of options and simply haven’t produced in the big league time they’ve been given. Still, they might be saved by the relative dearth of options coming up from the minors. Devers can really throw and play shortstop, but like Rocchio and others before him, he lacks physicality and power. Antunez and Tolentino have modest physical tools, but their swings are geared to launch (especially Antunez, who averaged 23 degrees in 2025).

Detroit Tigers
Current Count: 40
Must-Add Prospects: C Thayron Liranzo
Current 40-man Bubble: SIRP Jack Little, SIRP Tyler Mattison, SIRP Chase Lee, SIRP Bailey Horn
Fringe Prospects: UTIL Trei Cruz, SIRP Trevin Michael, 2B/3B Hao-Yu Lee, SIRP RJ Petit, MIRP Jake Miller, SIRP Tanner Kohlhepp, SP Gabriel Reyes, 3B Izaac Pacheco, C Eduardo Valencia, MIRP Colin Fields, SP Joseph Montalvo
Trade Candidates: One of Jahmai Jones or Andy Ibáñez

Detroit has a fairly substantial crunch to wrangle because their big league pitching staff is already so deep, and a few more interesting (mostly bullpen) arms are arriving. They also don’t have a glaring weakness or depth issue on offense that they could address via a convenient swap for an arm or two, so they might instead be in the market to trade for a young prospect who is multiple years away from the 40-man, especially if their partner considers Detroit’s fringe pitching to be an active roster upgrade.

Liranzo, who came from the Dodgers as part of last year’s Jack Flaherty trade, didn’t have an awesome season, but he’s still a college-aged, switch-hitting catcher with huge power from both sides of the plate. It’s worth him spending a purely developmental season on the 40-man in 2026. It may come as a surprise to see Cruz ahead of Lee here, but Cruz’s switch-hitting ability and defensive versatility (SS/3B/CF/LF) makes him easy to roster as a flexible bit player. If lefty mashers Jahmai Jones and Andy Ibáñez stay on the roster, Lee is quite redundant.

Lefty Jake Miller was slated to pitch in the Fall League but didn’t. He was hit by a line drive in September and didn’t pitch again, though it’s unclear what was ailing him such that he didn’t post in Arizona a month later. It’s tough to take him in Rule 5 him off of this year’s limited looks, though I liked him in 2024 and thought he had a chance to finish 2025 as a Top 100 prospect with a healthy campaign. Michael is ahead of the other harder-throwing ‘pen arms here because his fastball’s angle gives it just as much bat-missing ability as the others, and his slider is the best of the above group. Reyes is the most starter-y of the pitchers above, but he’s too young and far away from the bigs to be someone’s Rule 5 pick.

Kansas City Royals
Current Count: 37
Must-Add Prospects: None
Current 40-man Bubble: 2B Michael Massey, OF MJ Melendez, SIRP Daniel Lynch IV, SIRP Taylor Clarke, OF Drew Waters, OF Dairon Blanco
Fringe Prospects: SS Daniel Vazquez, SP Ben Kudrna, OF Gavin Cross, C Luca Tresh, SIRP Brandon Johnson, SP Felix Arronde, SIRP Christian Chamberlain, 2B Javi Vaz, 2B Peyton Wilson, MIRP Chazz Martinez, 1B/OF Brett Squires
Trade Candidates: None

The Royals pitching staff is deep enough that it has created a bit of a crunch here; there aren’t many of their big league relievers who I’d feel comfortable cutting loose aside from the couple listed above. Trading for Giants pitcher Mason Black stacked another name in front of the young arms listed above, and was why I now have Arronde on the outside of the cut line (he was only at High-A in 2025). Acquiring outfielder Kameron Misner from the Rays also crowds Kansas City’s outfield picture, especially among the guys who can feasibly play center field. I’m forecasting turnover in the KC outfield mix, generally. Johnson sits 93-95 and wields a plus slider; he looks like a pretty standard righty middle reliever.

I have Massey as a keeper here because I think his power gives him better ceiling than Vaz and Wilson, but the Royals need to improve their production at second base. None of those three are especially versatile; Nick Loftin and Tyler Tolbert provide that on KC’s active roster. With Maikel Garcia effectively acting as the team’s backup shortstop should anything befall Bobby Witt Jr., having another capable shortstop defender on the 40-man is arguably less important for the Royals than for most other orgs. With only their own personnel in mind, maybe it’d be okay to hold off on rostering the 21-year-old Vazquez, but his defensive ability might make him an attractive Rule 5 target for clubs that aren’t so shortstop rich.

New York Yankees
Current Count: 35
Must-Add Prospects: SP Elmer Rodríguez, CF Spencer Jones, SIRP Allen Facundo
Current 40-man Bubble: SP Allan Winans, INF Jorbit Vivas, INF Braden Shewmake, SIRP Michael Arias
Fringe Prospects: SP Brendan Beck, 1B T.J. Rumfield, SP Chase Hampton (inj), SIRP Carson Coleman, SP Bailey Dees, SP Henry Lalane, SP Luis Serna, SIRP Geoffrey Gilbert, SIRP Danny Watson, SIRP Luis Velasquez
Trade Candidates: None

New York has a ton of space and two obvious needs: starting pitching depth and better reserve infielders. While the Yankees have their annual group of good-looking young pitchers to roster, they don’t have a capable middle infielder in the org who’d represent a clear upgrade to the fringy guys currently behind the starters. They have enough space on their roster that they may be bargain hunting on the margins as other teams make their cuts.

Briefly, on Facundo, who was hurt for much of 2025 and didn’t pitch above Low-A during a health second half: He’s a lower-slot 23-year-old lefty who has been up to 100 with a plus upper-80s slider. It’s the kind of stuff that would play at the back of a bullpen were he able to sustain it for a whole year. As he just had an injury-riddled 2025, he might be on an innings cap in 2026 anyway, so it wouldn’t be developmentally wasteful to accelerate his promotion schedule and include a shift to the bullpen next year. If he isn’t rostered by the Yankees, another team would almost certainly use a Rule 5 pick on him, even knowing he’s green and risky, just to access his upside.

Tampa Bay Rays
Current Count: 40
Must-Add Prospects: None
Current 40-man Bubble: OF Richie Palacios, UTIL Christopher Morel, OF Everson Pereira, OF Tristan Peters, SIRP Forrest Whitley, SIRP Cole Sulser
Fringe Prospects: 2B Jadher Areinamo, C/1B Dominic Keegan, SIRP Alex Cook, SS Gregory Barrios, SP Logan Workman, SIRP Evan Reifert, SIRP Alexander Alberto, SP Marcus Johnson, 1B/2B/3B Cooper Kinney
Trade Candidates: Any of the fringe outfielders

The Rays have already designated several players for assignment to get their roster down to 40 players, and yet they have a pretty interesting fringe group and a surplus of outfielders who they might yet thin out to make room for a couple more additions, including a third catcher. The Rays have 10, count ’em, 10 outfielders on their 40-man right now, and though some of them play a couple of other positions (like Morel and Ryan Vilade), the recent additions of Vilade and Jake Fraley indicate that Tampa Bay wasn’t thrilled with its current group, which is perhaps an indication that a couple more tweaks are coming.

Texas Rangers
Current Count: 35
Must-Add Prospects: SP David Davalillo, SS Cameron Cauley
Current 40-man Bubble: SIRP Josh Sborz, maybe one of Michael Helman or Sam Haggerty
Fringe Prospects: SP Josh Stephan, 1B Abimelec Ortiz, SIRP Robby Ahlstrom, SP Leandro Lopez, SIRP Ismael Agreda, SIRP Gavin Collyer, SIRP Larson Kindreich, SIRP Wilian Bormie, SIRP Peyton Gray
Trade Candidates: Adolis García

The Rangers have a lot of vacant roster spots and could painlessly create a few more if they decide to cut loose one of their 2025 big league utilitymen, but they also have a sizable raft of ripening talent creating pressure on the margins of their roster. In Texas this is most true for the pitching staff, which needs depth. Davalillo is a lock to be added and should be one of Texas’ best five starters by the end of 2026. Stephan and Lopez are strike-throwers with backend stuff. The rest of the pitchers in the fringe prospect group have good stuff, but are probably too wild to stick with a new team via the Rule 5. Cauley’s fit on defense makes him easy to swap with one of Helman or Haggerty.

Brief Notes On A Few More Teams

The Athletics have already outrighted a few pitchers and are in better position to roster both their seemingly obvious adds (Mason Miller trade acquisition Braden Nett, plus Taiwanese strike-thrower Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang) as well as their fringe ones (outfielder Clark Elliott and right-hander Kenya Huggins, the latter of whom has starter qualities but has barely pitched above Low-A). The Mariners have a fairly full 40-man at this moment (the RosterResource crew has their count at 38), but they also don’t have many players they need to add. Switch-hitting infielder Luis Suisbel is an interesting long-term power-hitting prospect who might deserve a developmental spot; he’s on the fringe. After him there are pitchers of two different flavors — strike-throwing starters Michael Morales and Marcelo Perez, and low-slot relief righties Jimmy Kingsbury and Tyler Cleveland — who I wouldn’t be surprised to see added, though Seattle will probably only opt for one or two of those guys. The Angels only have 34 guys on their roster at the moment, leaving them plenty of space to add a stream of hard-throwing eventual relievers, the best of whom are Walbert Urena, Joel Hurtado, and then Samy Natera Jr. and Keythel Key. Toronto has several injured pitchers (Ricky Tiedemann, Connor Cooke, T.J. Brock) whose timelines for return might line up in such a way that it’s convenient for another club to use a Rule 5 pick on them. Outfielder Victor Arias might be the lone Jays position player who is added.

Not Very Crunchy: Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Houston Astros