2025 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Chicago Cubs.

Batters

To get this out of the way, ZiPS absolutely adores Chicago’s lineup, from top to bottom and every which way around. ZiPS and the Cubs have been on the same page before — the projections for Shota Imanaga last winter had me proclaiming that his deal was the offseason’s best signing — but the projections haven’t been this high on the lineup since the team’s World Series contention days. Now, a lot of that is defense, with Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong each having elite defensive projections. But there’s a lot of bat in there as well, with six starters projected for a 100 OPS+ or better, and two of the three who aren’t — Swanson and PCA — bolstered by their aforementioned defense.

Indeed, the system’s love for the Cubs was so intense that, as with the 2023 Diamondbacks (a team ZiPS absolutely drooled over), I made sure to double-check that something funny wasn’t going on by projecting the team using an older version of ZiPS. Much like Arizona two years ago, there was basically no change (0.2 WAR). The happy-Cubs effect has gotten stronger since the start of the winter, with the organization jettisoning a number of players ZiPS wasn’t high on (Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes), while adding a player who ZiPS has always liked (Kyle Tucker) and finding more playing time for Matt Shaw, who projects to be a decent starter right now. ZiPS even likes Gage Workman, who was picked up in the Rule 5 draft. It’s a smaller move, but while the computer isn’t optimistic about his bat, it had him as one of the best defensive third basemen in the minors.

Now, the playing time will come down once I do the Officially Licensed ZiPS Projected Standings, but the computer thinks this is a terrific group. It even likes the guys coming up. As it did with Michael Busch last year, it sees Shaw as a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate, and thinks that Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros could be real contributors in the majors right now. And it already sees Kevin Alcántara as having a career projection of 25 WAR! I’m almost bored that there’s nothing to be mean about, at least as it pertains to the offense.

Pitchers

On the flip side, ZiPS is much less excited about the pitching staff, especially the rotation. Since the computer was already enthusiastic about Imanaga, it sees him about the same as it did last winter, and it likes Justin Steele just fine. But once you get past the top two and Matthew Boyd, who ZiPS really digs despite the injuries given his strong stretch run, it’s a rather “meh” set of projections, full of serviceable-at-best pitchers with ERAs fancied up by the team’s defense. ZiPS believes that Javier Assad can continue to beat his FIP by more than the defense contributes, but with a 4.48 FIP projection, you’re not going to see a projected ERA in the 3.00s, even with the adjustment.

With a luxury tax number under $200 million and no onerous long-term deals, the Cubs are a team that ought to be really involved in the offseason pitching market. There are still dudes on the board!

The projections for the bullpen are more optimistic than they are for the rotation, though they fall short of being elite. There’s an amusing consistency among the relievers, with ZiPS basically projecting everyone for ERAs between 3.40 and 3.90, with one notable exception. That exception is Nate Pearson, who still has a great deal of upside, but who remains rather risky; ZiPS would prefer that he and his 4.10 projected ERA be relegated to lower-leverage situations until he shows something.

Elsewhere, the projections for Cody Poteet are intriguing. The Cubs didn’t eat enough of Bellinger’s contract to get a real prospect, but the 30-year-old right-hander could be a valuable bullpen piece who can also throw the occasional emergency start. Ben Brown’s projection as a starter is already healthy, but as a reliever, ZiPS sees him as the best closer option on the team, with a projected ERA right around 3.00 there.

With ZiPS’ more conservative playing time, the Cubs are a slight favorite in NL Central as they’re currently constituted, forecast for 86-87 wins. But if they were to add a Roki Sasaki or a Corbin Burnes, they might very well project as the clear division standout.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.