2025 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

The Pirates got off to a hot start in 2024, winning 10 of their first 14 games, but getting swept in consecutive series against the Mets and Red Sox quickly vaporized their small early cushion in the NL Central. Pittsburgh didn’t collapse, though, and played respectable baseball for the next three months; at the trade deadline, the Pirates stood just 2 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot in the NL, with the debut of Paul Skenes serving as a harbinger of hope that better days might be ahead. Pittsburgh made some low-key pickups at the deadline, but none of them made much of an impact, and its pitching collapsed in August, sealing the team’s 2024 fate.

Looking down the lineup, it’s not truly a mess anywhere – with the possible exception of DH, which makes me sad since it’s Andrew McCutchen – but it’s hard to get past the feeling of being underwhelmed. Moving Oneil Cruz to center field isn’t the worst idea around, but you’d like to see the organization’s grand plan involve something more ambitious than Isiah Kiner-Falefa playing shortstop every day. I know it’s a pipe dream given their ownership, but the Pirates would be a whole lot more interesting right now if after moving Cruz to the outfield, they’d splurged on, say, Willy Adames in free agency. Alas.

However, there are some things to like, if not love, with this lineup entering 2025. Nick Gonzales has improved enough that he’s a perfectly fine second baseman, albeit not one likely to make any All-Star appearances. ZiPS is optimistic about Spencer Horwitz’s bat at first base, and it was a nice little move to get him for Luis L. Ortiz and hope he’ll see some positive regression from his .243 BABIP. I think we’ve reached the point at which we recognize that Ke’Bryan Hayes does not have the offensive upside that he showed in a very brief debut, but he’s still got a terrific glove; ZiPS projects a far more typical season for him. I’m still not sold on Joey Bart, but I also think Endy Rodríguez has a pretty decent ceiling so long as he’s fully recovered from his UCL injury, so catcher isn’t really a problem position for Pittsburgh.

I hope that Bryan Reynolds has had enough consecutive 2-3 WAR seasons that people stop sending me angry DMs about ZiPS projecting him to have 2-3 WAR seasons! It’s nice that the Pirates actually paid to keep him around, but Reynolds is also just a solid player, not a star. Right field feels more like a collection of role players assembled rather than a real upside position, but ZiPS does believe Jack Suwinski can get back to his 2022-2023 level of offense after an absolutely brutal 2024.

The Pirates’ lineup is… OK… ish. I think what lends to the pallor is that it just doesn’t feel like there’s much of a ceiling here. A reclamation project or a gamble or two, rather than filling out the roster with known quantities, would have been a lot more interesting at some of these positions. McCutchen isn’t going to suddenly be 25 again. The big exception might be Henry Davis, but he was brutal enough in his very brief time in the majors that he’s likely going to have to continue raking at Triple-A before he gets another shot in the majors, and possibly answer the question of what position he should play (if any).

Pitchers

Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller are a double reminder that the Pirates — even though they’ve finished with a winning record just once (barely) over the last nine seasons — do at least some things far better than in the bleakest days of the Cam Bonifay/David Littlefield era. Skenes was the right guy to take in the draft, and Pittsburgh did a good job with him, promoting him quickly with confidence while ramping up his pitch count slowly and surely. Back in the bad old days, there’s no chance that Keller would have gotten a five-year contract extension. Skenes and Keller are a solid one-two punch, and ZiPS has a lot of confidence that Jared Jones can build upon his rookie year success.

The back of the rotation is adequate. Bailey Falter is extremely hittable, but at least he’s developing into a decent fourth-starter/innings-eater type. Johan Oviedo, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft all get projections in the same general realm as Falter, and ZiPS also includes Thomas Harrington in that same tier. Overall, this is a solid staff because of its first three pitchers, but none of these other guys are breakout candidates, so the ceiling of Pittsburgh’s rotation is limited. Because of Skenes, Keller, and Jones, the Pirates probably have the makings of a top-10 rotation in baseball, and even though this group probably won’t climb into the top five, this amounts to a team highlight.

The bullpen looks a lot like the rotation, except it doesn’t have a reliever of Skenes’ caliber. It’s a bit Olive Garden-esque, which I don’t actually mean as an insult. There’s nothing exciting about the bullpen, but at least most of the relievers are decent, if somewhat interchangeable. ZiPS projects seven Pirates relievers to finish with an ERA+ between 100 and David Bednar’s 116, with nobody projecting above that mark. That’s not the end of the world; if you’ve seen an episode of Kitchen Nightmares, you should be aware that the quality of new restaurants can fluctuate widely, whereas middle-of-the-road chains are known commodities. This bullpen will hold leads as well as Olive Garden’s endless breadsticks will get you a week’s worth of carbs on the cheap, but neither will be the highlight of your Instagram. He didn’t get a great projection, but Kyle Nicolas in a relief-only role might be the most interesting of Pittsburgh’s non-established relievers, with enough nastiness to his stuff that he could blossom if his command improves.

ZiPS sees the Pirates as a .500 team, but in the very early team projections I’ve run, they just have less upside than the rest of the division. If ZiPS is accurate, it’s certainly a concern for the lowest-spending team in the division to have the lowest ceiling as well. Considering this, if the Pirates aren’t going to spend more — which they surely will not — they should instead roll the dice a little bit more to get some low-cost, high-upside players. As of now, though, that isn’t what they’re doing, and that’s a shame because they do have some young and exciting stars who could make for a talented core if ownership were willing to surround them with some capable complementary pieces. Even so, the bright spots of this overall lackluster roster should offer fans enough of a reason to watch the Pirates this year.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.