2026 ZiPS Projections: Cleveland Guardians

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cleveland Guardians.

Batters

The 2025 Cleveland Guardians proved that necromancy is, in fact, possible, and despite looking dead by the All-Star break, they went on a monumental late-season tear to close a 12 1/2-game gap in the AL Central over the last five weeks of the season. While the season ended in dissatisfying fashion, with the Guardians dropping the Wild Card Series in three games to the Detroit Tigers, just getting to the playoffs in 2025 felt like they were playing with house money. The fun of Cleveland’s postseason run did hide some serious problems with the team, though, most notably an offense that scored fewer runs than every team except the Pirates and Rockies. The Guardians may have made their big September surge without Emmanuel Clase’s services, but the loss of their best reliever — for what is looking more and more likely to be forever — removes a key part of their core. Cleveland did win 88 games, but the team was outscored by its opponents on the year, and the context of this sentence ought to indicate to you, fair reader, whether run differential or actual wins has more predictive value.

ZiPS projects the Guardians to have a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses as the Twins in 2026. On offense, ZiPS sees both teams as having one hitter it really likes, with José Ramírez being the healthier star compared to Byron Buxton. Then, each team has a couple position players the system likes, with Steven Kwan and the catchers — OK, Bo Naylor — standing in as Cleveland’s version of Luke Keaschall and the Minnesota catchers. But just like with the Twins, once you get past the top guys, ZiPS sees a whole lotta mid going ’round in Cleveland. Kyle Manzardo’s uneven platoon splits keep his ceiling fairly low, so the Guardians could use a lefty smasher to pair with him to make first base a plus position. Second base is fine at the moment, and it should be even better than that if Travis Bazzana, the computer’s preference, pushes for the job sooner rather than later.

The projections look most problematic at center field and designated hitter. Lots of teams slum it at DH, so I can see the Guardians just rolling with [insert mediocre burly batter here] at the position, but there’s probably at least some chance that they’ll make an upgrade in center. Harrison Bader is probably the most interesting option available, at least of the players that the Guardians could theoretically afford; I’d be really surprised to see them want to shell out the cash needed to bring in Cody Bellinger. Perhaps a trade is more likely for Cleveland than signing either free agent.

Put it all together and the Guardians have a below-average offense with some real highlights. Yes, I still think Ramírez is one of the most underrated players of this generation, and I’m already planning my social media meltdowns for 10-15 years from now when I see Hall of Fame ballots with his box unchecked. ZiPS is projecting him for yet another 20/20 season with more than 4 WAR, and considering he’s gone 30/40 with more than 6 WAR in each of the past two seasons, it wouldn’t be surprising to him exceed even ZiPS’ expectations for his age-33 season.

Pitchers

ZiPS is much more confident about the state of the Guardians pitching staff than the lineup. Even if neither pitcher really fits the mold of a typical ace, ZiPS expects both Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams to surpass 3 WAR based on our Depth Chart playing time. There aren’t any big names in this rotation after Bibee and Williams, but ZiPS sees Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen, and Parker Messick as quietly competent starters. ZiPS has had a silicon-crush on Joey Cantillo for a while now, and led by Austin Peterson, the team has pretty good depth in the form of unexciting pitchers with generally decent command. These are the types that Cleveland, like the A’s, has historically produced like clockwork. Luis Ortiz has a good projection as well, but like Clase, it looks like he won’t ever pitch again in the majors or affiliated ball; the good news is the rotation is deep enough to withstand his likely absence.

Last year, ZiPS was quite taken with the Cleveland bullpen, projecting a 5.9 Depth Chart WAR over the winter. That’s one of those fortune-readings that worked out, as the Guardians actually beat that, finishing the season with 6.6 WAR out of the pen. Crossing out Clase, Sam Hentges, and Nic Enright takes this unit down a notch, but the Guardians still project to have a solid group of relievers. A good bullpen can have Cade Smith as its best reliever, and Hunter Gaddis, Erik Sabrowski, and Tim Herrin make for a darn good trio of lieutenants. ZiPS sees Cantillo as being very good when used in relief, and while he’ll have to break out to get a lot of innings in the majors, there are so many good upside scenarios for Franco Aleman that the computer is far less annoyed than you may expect about his walk rate in Triple-A. The only prominent denizen on the bullpen depth chart that ZiPS is uneasy about is Peyton Pallette, a Rule 5 draftee last week.

All told, the Guardians will likely end up at 80-85 wins, which puts them a little bit behind the Royals and Tigers, but not so far back that it would be crazy to see Cleveland surpass them in the standings.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.