2026 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Washington Nationals.

Batters

Washington’s rebuild continued in 2025, but unfortunately, not a lot of progress was made. The young offensive core of James Wood, Dylan Crews, CJ Abrams, and Luis García Jr. didn’t take any huge steps forward, and two of them, Crews and García, arguably both took second steps in the wrong direction. That foundational talent really added only Daylen Lile in 2025, and the offensive holes from a year ago largely remain in place as the team turns toward 2026. MacKenzie Gore still looks like a legitimate no. 2 starter, but it seems as likely that he’ll be traded as it is that he’ll return to the Nationals rotation in 2026. As for the rest of the pitching, I’d prefer not to talk about that until I have to.

At least on the offense, unlike for those of a lot of baseball’s cellar dwellers, the Nats aren’t really abysmal anywhere. Problem is, there’s not much greatness here, either. Wood is the closest to that; he’s a burgeoning star who ended the year with fine numbers, but he only just completed his first full season and still has plenty of developing to do. He struggled after participating in the Home Run Derby as players tend to do* and only hit seven home runs in the second half. He’s not multi-faceted in his offensive contributions, at least not yet, but he can hit-ball-smash-ball with the best of them, and is the best player on the team.

*That was just to see if you’re paying attention. Of course that’s not actually a thing.

The rest of the Nats offense, though, features a lot of adequate-to-decent players who awkwardly fit into the lineup. Abrams is easily the best of the rest, but you’d also much rather have him playing an easier defensive position than shortstop. García’s not a particular adept second baseman, either, and simply doesn’t hit well enough to have value at first. Andrés Chaparro could be a great fit at third if he could play third… so he’s not.

Jacob Young is a solid glove in center, but if he’s hitting like he did in 2025 instead of in 2024, he’s only a fifth outfielder in the majors. Brady House is not likely to be an offensive plus at third base. Crews still has a ton of upside, but 2025 served as an icy cold shower to his prospectitude. ZiPS is basically in full-on nope mode with Keibert Ruiz at this point.

Nor is there likely to be immediate help from the minors. Eli Willits and Luke Dickerson are not going to make an impact instantly, and ZiPS just doesn’t see any big bats lurking on the farm. Sure, Robert Hassell III got a special logo for the depth chart, but that’s mostly because I just rewatched Rocky III a few weeks ago and it amused me.

Pitchers

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OK, that might not fool Meg and Matt, so I may have to actually talk about the pitching.

(Editor’s note from Matt: It’s not that it didn’t fool me so much as I don’t speak code and didn’t understand it. So yes, Dan has to talk about the pitching.)

The most interesting starting pitchers outside of Gore, in ZiPS’ eyes, are Cade Cavalli and DJ Herz, the only two starters it projects with an ERA under 4.50. Cavalli is the most interesting in my eyes as well, as he can still hit the high-90s, and being a Mike Mussina partisan, I’m going to give a lot of leeway to a guy with a mean knuckle-curve. Problem is, there are a lot of unknowns given his missed time due to a UCL tear, and he just wasn’t that great at getting out Triple-A hitters this past year. Herz is currently out with his own Tommy John surgery.

Gore, of course, is easily Washington’s best pitcher, and there’s a decent chance I’ll be writing about him again in another team’s projection article this winter, if you catch my drift. He was victimized by the team’s defense, putting up one of the least deserving 5-15 records in major league history.

At best, ZiPS sees the rest of the rotation as passable fifth starters. A returning Josiah Gray is unlikely to be the savior.

The bullpen is a very average one, but it certainly feels better than some of the pens the Nats have rolled out over the years, including when they were actually a good team. Jose A. Ferrer gets a solid projection, and Clayton Beeter, PJ Poulin, and Julian Fernández all look at least serviceable. That’s pretty much where the excitement ends, but in truth, a team that will have to do some work to hit 70 wins probably doesn’t really need a great stable of relievers.

Washington’s outlook isn’t as utterly bleak as it is for some of baseball’s other terrible teams, considering there are a few real players on this roster. (Yes, the bar is that low.) However, this rebuild has not gone well, and the Nats feel as far away from contention as they were two or three years ago. They could surprise and win 75-80 games with some luck on offense, but I don’t think they have a chance to find enough to pitching to do any better than that.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.